The Market Examiner Blog

Tough going

2012-01-26T21:57:00.003Z

Tough going at the moment, with a couple more placed efforts but no winner.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.45 Newcastle Fabalu 1pt 6/1+ generally 13/2 Totesport/Paddy Power/VC/Betfred&others

3.15 Newcastle Pyjama Game 1pt 6/1 generally maybe some 7/1 Stan James
3.25 Warwick Romulus D'Artaix 1pt 4/1 generally 9/2 Hills/Skybet

Fabalu went off at 7/1, was struggling early and was the last to finish, poor.

Next up Pyjama Game was being cajoled along quite some way from home with Lucy Alexander doing a good job in keeping him going, and in the end he stayed on pretty well to not be beaten too far in the end, going down by seven lengths, in third. He was well backed into 7/2.

We also got the price with Romulus D'Artaix, who started at 3/1, but couldn't cope with Arctic Ben who shot clear early on and couldn't be caught, with Alan King's 6yo finishing second, beaten just over ten lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Fabalu, 5th/11, 6/1 --- 7/1

Pyjama Game, 3rd/10, 6/1 --- 7/2

Romulus D'Artaix, 2nd/8, 4/1 --- 3/1

The weather's threatening to turn pretty cold these next few days, hopefully racing won't be affected and we can finish January strongly.

Record gets closer

2012-01-25T23:08:00.004Z

We had no selections yesterday, and today was disappointing, with yet another second placed finish and a couple which despite being well backed ran shockers.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Musselburgh Knight In Purple 1pt 6/1 generally
3.30 Hereford Gainsboroughs Art 1pt 9/1+ generally 10/1 Hills/Bet365/Totesport&others 11/1 StanJames
4.00 Hereford Bringewood Fox 1pt 6/1+ generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Coral

Knight In Purple went off at 11/2 and put in a decent effort, chasing home the winner by just over three lengths, well clear of third. We were probably beaten by the inspired riding from Kyle James who asked Dontpaytheferryman to stretch on as they turned for home, taking five or six lengths out of the field, and then he wasn't quite for catching. It's our 13th second place finish of the month, which is getting annoying now. That's the second highest total since the start of 2010 (14 the record - June 2011, but that was from 85 bets, and we've only had 48 selections so far this month!).

Nothing to report from our next two apart from the fact they were both nicely backed, but ran very poorly.

Gainsborough's Art went off at 5/1 and was leading before three out but then dropped like a stone, maybe something amiss as certainly more was expected.

Then the money just kept coming for Bringewood Fox, who went off 2/1fav on his return after nearly a year, But he just never travelled a yard and was pulled up.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Knight In Purple, 2nd/8, 6/1 --- 11/2

Gainsborough's Art, 8th/11, 9/1 --- 5/1

Bringewood Fox, PU/5, 6/1 --- 2/1

On to tomorrow then and let's see if we can turn some of these 2nds into winners!

A look at Each-Way returns

2012-01-23T20:47:00.004Z

** This was released to members last Friday lunchtime; Results correct to before racing that day - latest results (yesterday and today) summary below **

We get asked quite regularly whether backing our selections each-way would return greater profits. We know that quite a few members prefer this method, and we can certainly see the advantages, not least the much more regular returns and shorter losing stretches.

Indeed, for this month of January, each-way returns would have outperformed win only returns by 13.31pts (+18.31pts vs +6pts). This month has of course been littered with placed efforts (16 coming second or third out of 36 selections). In total this month 23 have been placed out of 36, including our seven winners (63.8%). However, it perhaps says something that despite the glut of near misses, each-way returns are only outperformaing win-only by 12.31pts, and when we look again at historical returns we can see that win-only returns, in the long-term, does quite comfortably beat backing at each-way.

From January 1st 2010 to the current date, backing win-only returns +287.67pts, while each-way returns are at +144.425pts.

Here is a graph of how win-only returns have performed against each-way. The Blue line is win-only, the red is each-way.

You can see how when we have poor spells, backing each-way does generally outperform win-only, but when the winners come the win-only bank stretches clear.

However, the each-way graph does have a somewhat more stable look to it, and for that reason each-way betting will have its place for those members who prefer the option of more regular returns.

***

So, on to a look back to the last couple of days, and all a bit low-key with no returns.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Market Rasen Swansbrook 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Bet365/VC&others

EARLY SELECTION:

2.00 Market Rasen Heavenstown 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Bet365/Skybet

Heavenstown raced prominently but faded disappointingly on his handicap debut to be well beaten, after drifting to 8/1 at SP.

Swansbrook was also frustratingly easy to back close to post-time, going off at 9/1, but after being shaken along early went on to run pretty well for a long time, but was outpaced when push came to shove, to finish 5th, beaten around ten lengths.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.15 Wetherby Prince Blackthorn 1pt 4/1 generally

And at least we had a bit of value with this one, with William Amos' 6yo going off at 7/2. He raced too keenly early on but as they turned for home he looked very much the likely winner, trading at about 1/2 in running. But it seemed the earlier exertions caught up with him late on, as he faded to fifth.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Sunday 22nd January 2012

Heavenstown, 7th/15, 5/1 --- 8/1

Swansbrook, 5th/14, 7/1 --- 9/1

Monday 23rd January 2012

Prince Blackthorn, 5th/10, 4/1 --- 7/2

So a frustrating little run we're on right now, and hopefully we'll snap out of it with a good day tomorrow!

2nd 2nd 2nd

2012-01-21T18:13:00.003Z

Time for a deep breath!

If you were able to skim over our next 1000 bets, we'll have plenty of runs where we have a high volume of winners, we'll have some poor runs too of course, and we'll have runs where we just keep hitting the post.

If you could just skip through each result, day by day, hitting the "next button", and look at all the results in the space of, say, ten minutes, you will see it all end with (we're sure) continued strong profits.

But when you're playing out these 1000 bets day by day my word can there be some frustrations thrown in along the way!

Of course it means we can enjoy the good times too (for they will come again - and how - at some point soon) - and we'll look forward to that.

Anyway, a good day today for members who did an each-way trixie or treble (not us by the way), as our three selections all ran really well but each ran into one too good. To not get one of them to finish in front's a bit of a kick in the teeth, but that's the game we're in, it can be tough sometimes!

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.20 Haydock Stow 1pt 11/2+generally 6/1 in most places
2.45 Wincanton The Rainbow Hunter 1pt 8/1+generally 9/1 Lads/PaddyPower 10/1 Bet365/Totesport/VC&others
3.20 Wincanton Not So Sure Dick 1pt 7/1+ generally 15/2 Totesport 8/1 Bet365/PaddyPower/SportingBet

Stow went off at 9/2 and ran really well, leading approaching the last, but wasn't able to repel the challenge of Donald McCain runner Reindeer Dippin, who's stable is just flying right now.

The Rainbow Hunter also ran well, but like Stow ran into one, with the well handicapped Shuil Royale skipping clear from two out. Kim Bailey's 8yo put in a very good showing though, well clear of third, after going off an easy to back 10/1.

So would we complete the hat-trick of seconds, oh yes, with Not So Sure Dick going down by four lengths to Hunt Ball, eleven lengths clear of the third. Again we had a good run for our money, with George Baker's gelding making smooth progress and staying on well, but just couldn't match the winner for toe, after going off at 15/2.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Stow, 2nd/10, 6/1 --- 9/2

The Rainbow Hunter, 9/1 --- 10/1

Not So Sure Dick, 7/1 --- 15/2

In fairness it wasn't as if any of our three today were mugged late, or were in any way unlucky. They all just ran well but ran into another a bit too good on the day. Going forward we'll have days when it doesn't go like that, and we rattle up a sequence of wins rather than 2nds. Roll on that day!

More awards!

2012-01-20T19:50:00.005Z

Fresh from being made a Hall of Fame service by the highly respected proofing website the Secret Betting Club, we're delighted to say that our 2011 performance has been rewarded with two more prizes.

We have been awarded the Silver Award for "Best Overall Tipster of 2011 (open to new members)".

The quote used is:

The Silver award goes to The Market Examiner who performed very well on all 4 tables and had a very good 2011 overall.

The four tables they looked at are "Total Profits in 2011; Total Profits in 2011 (after fees); Return On Investment; Return On Investment +"

"Return on Investment +" means the ROI multiplied by the number of bets, with this being the example given - "For example a tipster with an ROI of 10% over 1000 bets is far better than a tipster who has a 30% ROI over just 100 bets."

We have also been awarded the Silver Award for "Best Overall Horse Racing Tipster of 2011 (open to new members)".

The full details are available to members, and you can join by clicking here. (This is of course a non-affiliate link in case you're wondering).

On to today's results and we've had our worst day for a good few days, with none of our three doing the business.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.10 Chepstow Karinga Dream 1pt 6/1+generally 13/2 Totesport/Betfred/Skybet
2.10 Catterick Cool Operator 1pt 11/2+generally 6/1 Hills/Bet365/Coral&others 13/2 Boylesports
4.00 Chepstow Paddy The Yank 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Hills 7/1 Lads/Totesport/PaddyPower maybe some 15/2 Betfred

Karinga Dream went off at 11/2 but was struggling some way out and was well beaten.

Cool Operator was the one which we didn't get the price with, with Philip Kirby's 9yo going off at 15/2. He raced prominently for a good while but weakened from four out.

Finally Paddy The Yank came about and it was encouraging to see him supported down to 11/4 at the off, but he never really travelled that well and was well held in third when he fell two out.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Karinga Dream, 9th/10, 13/2 --- 11/2

Cool Operator, 6th/10, 6/1 --- 15/2

Paddy The Yank, F/7, 7/1 --- 11/4

So, on to tomorrow!

Ticking along nicely

2012-01-19T20:53:00.004Z

Things ticking along quite nicely at the moment, with another winner today, in the feature chase at Taunton.

Yesterday we had a decent effort from our one selection:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.40 Southwell Kinkeel 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Coral

And it was a good showing from the 13yo, after starting at 6/1. Up there throughout, he was just a bit flat-footed as the pace quickened but then stayed on strongly into second, finishing four lengths behind the winner.

Today we had our second early selection since we introduced it, and two "conventional" selections.

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Ludlow Eldred 1pt 5/1 generally
3.50 Taunton Michael Flips 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 SportingBet

EARLY SELECTION

3.20 Taunton Third Intention 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Lads/Skybet/StanJames/Boylesports

Nicky Henderson's Eldred was a little weak in the betting, going off at 13/2 but was going ok until finding nothing when asked for an effort.

Our next two ran in the cracking back to back handicaps at Taunton, the first the hurdles contest. We had a good showing Third Intention who was backed into 7/2 and ran a cracker, just not finding quite enough close to home. The County Hurdle will probably be next for him at Cheltenham.

It'll likely be the Festival next too for our winner today - Michael Flips, who we also got the right price about, with Nick Scholfield's 8yo going off at 4/1. He jumped really well throughout, except perhaps for being a bit hesitant at the last, and kept on really well to win by 3/4 length, with, like the previous race, the front two well clear.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday 18th January 2011

Kinkeel, 2nd/10, 7/1 --- 6/1

Thursday 19th January 2011

Eldred, 9th/13, 5/1 -- 13/2

Third Intention, 2nd/12, 5/1 --- 7/2

Michael Flips, 1st/11, 5/1 --- 4/1

So another couple of points added since the last update, and we look forward to tomorrow!

We are a HALL OF FAME service

2012-01-17T19:44:00.008Z

We are delighted to announce that we have been made granted "Hall of Fame" status by the highly respected proofing website the Secret Betting Club.

This is a huge accolade and something we are very proud about, and follows a highly positive review last year. It's a bit like getting an oscar in the world of tipping services.

We will soon have more details and part of the review on our website, although naturally for access to the whole review you'll need to join SBC to read it in full.

You can go here to find the SBC website.

We will be doing everything we can to justify this decision and status going forward.

We still have a few spaces available to join the service, and if you would like to get involved you can join from £17.08 a month.

Gathering momentum

2012-01-17T17:52:00.004Z

Another profitable day today, and a winning start for our "early-bird" selection process.

This is where we think a move has the right characteristics early on to warrant being made a selection around a couple of hours earlier than our usual selections are made.

We strongly believe this will add to our profits over the coming year.

In total we had three today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Ayr See The Legend 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Hills/Coral
4.00 Folkestone Alder Mairi 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/VC

EARLY SELECTION

3.30 Folkestone Malin Head 1pt 9/2 Bet365/Hills

First up See The Legend was a little weak on course at Ayr, and went off at 7/1, She ran well for a good while but was a bit outpaced at the business end.

Then we had Malin Head, who landed quite a touch for connections at Folkestone. It was funny watching the exchanges with this one today, you sensed that layers were desperate to push him out and get stuck in but the money kept coming, in the end going off a well backed 9/4. Ridden to lead from the off, he put in a really gutsy performance, fending off all comers to win by nearly two lengths in the end.

Last up was Alder Mairi (SP 8/1), running in the bumper at Folkestone, and she put in a decent performance, coming with what looked like a promising run towards the finish only to run a little green and not find as much as hoped. She wasn't beaten far, but finished 5th.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

See The Legend, 5th/10, 5/1 --- 7/1

Malin Head, 1st/8, 9/2 --- 9/4

Alder Mairi, 5th/8, 7/1 --- 8/1

It sounds like officials at Southwell are optimistic about racing tomorrow, which will be good as there's some decent fields due to go as we look to make it three winning days in a row!

Good winner

2012-01-16T16:33:00.002Z

We just had the one selection which ran in the end today, and Pretty Penny did it in cracking style at Plumpton this afternoon.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Plumpton Humbel Ben 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Totesport/Boylesports & others
3.40 Plumpton Pretty Penny 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Lads/Totesport/PaddyPower & others

There was a lot of money around for Humbel Ben and it was frustrating to see him pulled out as a non-runner.

So we looked to Pretty Penny to do the business, and so she did. Given an excellent ride by Felix de Giles, she was produced to challenge as they turned for home. Cleverly switched to the rail, she stayed on all the way to the line to win by 3/4 length. It was Felix's only ride of the day, and the horse was having her first run for her new stable, and was fresh from a point succes. Well done to all concerned. There was lots of money about for her earlier but she drifted out to 6/1 to give us an extra 1.5pts of profit. That's two drifters who've done the business for us in the last few days, sometimes it's the early money which is the most telling.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Humbel Ben NR

Pretty Penny, 1st/11, 9/2 --- 6/1

A shame that Fakenham's off tomorrow already, but fingers crossed for Folkestone and Ayr as we look to follow up!

Weekend update

2012-01-15T21:52:00.004Z

No bets today, Sunday, with Kelso off, which was disappointing. I suppose we've had a very mild winter all in all so far this year though so we can't complain too much.

So let's look back at yesterday where we had two more decent efforts but no rewards for us win-only backers. We'll look again at our historic each-way returns compared to win-only soon. There's no question it can be frustrating seeing so many go close but get nothing back to show for it, but we've always found win-only to have better returns over the course of time. We'll take a detailed look in the next couple of days and get the results up on the website too.

Anyway here's what we had yesterday:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.50 Warwick Up To The Mark 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 PaddyPower/Totesport/Skybet/Betfred
2.00 Warwick Tara Royal 1pt 8/1 generally
3.20 Kempton Peplum 1pt 16/1+generally inc. 20/1 Lads/VC/Bet365/Coral/Totesport&others

Up To The Mark put in a solid performance, leading near enough the whole way until they went over the last hurdle, but didn't quite have the finishing burst he needed, having to settle for third beaten just over a couple of lengths after starting at 5/1.

Tara Royal opened on course at 11/1 and drifted to 14/1 by post time, but put in a decent effort, moving up strongly into contention before two out before just not seeing it out in the end, finishing third, not beaten that far.

Then came Peplum, who started at 25/1 and didn't do much at all. He spent much of the contest in the rear but actually did stay on towards the end to suggest he might go in at a big price soon, as he continues to drop in the weights.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised -- SP):

Up To The Mark, 3rd/15, 9/2 --- 5/1

Tara Royal, 3rd/8, 8/1 --- 14/1

Peplum, 8th/14, 20/1 --- 25/1

Hope you have a great week.

Going close again

2012-01-13T16:36:00.003Z

If a few more things had fallen our way this month we could really be sitting with a decent profit.

Today though we had three more go close from our four selections, including two more second placed finishes, and our third 2pt selection of the month getting placed but not getting in front. It'll come.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.20 Huntingdon Big Bertie 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Totesport/PaddyPower/Betfred
2.40 Musselburgh Auberge 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Bet365/Coral&others
2.50 Huntingdon Unwanted Gift 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Hills/VC/Totesport/Betfred maybe some 8/1 Bluesq
3.20 Huntingdon Flora's Pride 2pt 11/1+ generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Bet365&others 14/1 Hills

Big Bertie was the only disappointing performance today really, going off a well backed 6/1 chance, he was up there for a while before dropping tamely away.

Auberge got within a length of giving us a return. Always prominent, she just couldn't get past the winner as much as she tried, and she ended in a dead heat for second, beaten 3/4 length. A good effort, after starting at 4/1.

More value was had with Unwanted Gift, who was held up out the back and given a pretty patient ride. Consequently he had to have a fair old turn of foot to pick up and win, and couldn't manage it, staying on to second but sadly five lengths behind the winner. Rachel Hobbs' 7yo started at 11/2.

Then came the two pointer - would we have our first big return of 2012? Not yet, but Flora's Pride ran well after continuing to be supported into 15/2. She was travelling comfortably and looking a big danger until about two out where she just couldn't quite go with the front two, ending up finishing third, well clear of fourth.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Big Bertie, 6th/8, 10/1 --- 6/1

Auberge, 2nd/9, 6/1 --- 4/1

Unwanted Gift, 2nd/7, 15/2 --- 11/2

Flora's Price, 3rd/10, 11/1 --- 15/2

January's been a strange month so far. The vast majority of selections are running well, with 16 of our 25 selections getting placed at an average price of 7.56/1 (incidentally, beating average SP of 6.2/1), but we're yet to motor on. A really big day is just around the corner, we're sure of it.

Bouncing back

2012-01-12T21:14:00.002Z

A cracking result today with our only selection of the day doing the business in determined fashion at Fontwell.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.05 Fontwell Dirty Deal 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 SportingBet

Dirty Deal was very well supported in the morning for Tony Carroll, but went on the drift as they got closer to post time, although she was nibbled back in again from 10/1 to 9/1 just before the off. Any thought that today wasn't meant to be her day was soon put to bed as Carroll himself led her off at the start and helped give her a flying start. After that she always travelled comfortably, although jockey Lee Edwards almost came off with a circuit to go as she stumbled on landing after one of the hurdles. He did a great job in staying on board, and then rode out a terrific finish with the 8yo really bravely staying on to win by nearly two lengths.

It was a brilliant ride by Edwards and to see afterwards that he got a five day ban for breaking the whip rules is a complete joke.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Dirty Deal, 1st/7, 5/1 --- 9/1

As we know a drift is normally a negative sign, but not today, the morning money was down and Dirty Deal ran out a cracking winner. Bet365 was one of the firms still at 5/1 ten minutes after the email went today so we add a bonus four points to our profit for the day thanks to their BOG. Just for the avoidance of doubt SportingBet may have been 11/2 but we never settle using them, likewise we don't settle using the likes of Betfred/Boylesports/Stan James/BlueSq/Skybet or other firms well known for not taking a decent bet. Over the course of a year of settling results this costs us quite a few points but we think its the fairest way to monitor our results.

Poor day

2012-01-11T18:16:00.003Z

Not good today, with two selections running poorly and the other making too many mistakes to get competitive.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.25 Ffos Las Federstar 1pt 6/1 generally 13/2 Paddy Power/SportingBet
3.00 Ffos Las Changing Lanes 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred/SportingBet 11/2 Coral
3.25 Doncaster Vin De Roy 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills/Lads/Totesport/Skybet/Betfred

Two of these drifted which is as we know is often a bad sign.

First of all Federstar was very weak on the exchanges pre-first show on course, where Martin Keighley's 10yo was supported in again from 9/1 to 15/2 - still longer than advised this morning. Then came a poor performance, he was one of the first off the bridle and was tailed off when pulled up. Not good.

Changing Lanes fared similarly, starting at 6/1 he was being pushed along all too early and also didn't even manage to complete.

Vin De Roy at least made it round, and was supported into 7/1 SP, but made numerous jumping errors which cost him any chance. He was losing at least a length with pretty much every obstacle he passed, and in fairness the fact he was still there in contention three out was pretty impressive given that, and if he can improve in that regard he may be one to keep an eye out for.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Federstar, PU/6, 6/1 --- 15/2

Changing Lanes, PU/7, 5/1 --- 6/1

Vin De Roy, 6th/9, 8/1 --- 7/1

Let's certainly hope for better tomorrow!

Nought for one

2012-01-10T16:38:00.004Z

A disappointing effort from our one selection today, in the last at Leicester.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40 Leicester Playing With Fire 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Hills/Bet365/PaddyPower/VC/Totesport/Betfred

Robin Dickin's grey mare was held up out the back after being a bit weak in the betting on course, going off at 6/1, after opening at 9/2. When asked for an effort she had no real turn of foot and finished a well beaten sixth.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Playing With Fire, 6th/9, 11/2 --- 6/1

So she'll go into the "next time out" notebook and we'll see how she gets on. She's entered to run back over the big fences at Kempton on Saturday, and if she goes to post and it'll be interesting to see how she runs.

Another placed effort

2012-01-09T21:10:00.002Z

A month of near misses so far, today's second place finish our fifth of the month already (31% of all selections). We're running at a placed strike rate of 75% at the moment, with twelve out of our sixteen so far finishing in the frame.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.10 Taun Don't Panic 1pt 8-1 + 9-1 Lads, Blue Square

Don't Panic was very nicely supported down to an SP of 4/1, obviously a big run was expected, and so it proved with Nick Scolfield's 8yo finishing in the frame for the first time since November 2009. He pulled too hard for his own good in the early stages of the race, and was ridden some way from home, before staying on well at the end to finish second, some way behind the winner. The early exertions probably didn't help, though the winner did it well.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Don't Panic, 2nd/9, 9/1 --- 4/1

Running into one has been a bit of a theme this month so far but at least most of the selections are running well and we should get our rewards soon.

Weekend update

2012-01-08T20:04:00.003Z

It's been fairly slow in terms of selections since our last update - none on Friday, a couple on Saturday and then one today, Sunday.

Let's start out look back yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.25 Newcastle Teerie Express 1pt 4/1+generally 9/2 Lads/Hills/Totesport/VC&others
2.05 Sandown Tanks For That 1pt 9/2+generally 5/1 Bet365/Totesport/Betfred

Teerie Express went off at 5/1, and showed up well for a long time trading at around evens for a time, but was a bit one paced after losing the lead before three out, and eventually finished third, losing second on the run-in.

Tanks For That (9/2sp), was up there for much of this decent two mile handicap, but a mistake two out seemed to spoil what chance he had, and he as well finished third, losing second on the post.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Hereford Acapulco Bay 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Skybet/Boylesports 12/1 Lads/Bet365/VC/PP/Bluesq Maybe some 14/1 Stan James/SportingBet

This was the second time in the last couple of months we've put up Dai Burchell's 8yo, and again we didn't collect, although this was a slightly better showing than last time. Nicely backed into 8/1, he was held up and well behind before trying to close as they turned for home. He only got so far though before the petrol ran out, and he had to settle for fourth.

Confirmation of results with price (advised --- SP):

Saturday 7th January 2012:

Teerie Express, 3rd/8, 9/2 --- 5/1

Tanks For That, 3rd/9, 5/1 --- 9/2

Sunday 8th January 2012:

Acapulco Bay, 4th/12, 12/1 --- 8/1

A disappointing weekend and we look for better tomorrow.

Cracking day

2012-01-05T20:31:00.003Z

Really good day today, with two winners from our three selections, a nice 9.5pts of profit, and good value had too.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.20 Lingfield Whitcombe Spirit 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/VC/Skybet/Boylesports
2.20 Lingfield Rosoff 1pt 11/2 generally
3.50 Lingfield Grafite 1pt 5/1 generally

First of all, Whitcombe Spirit was disappointing. Backed all the way into an SP of 3/1, his jumping left a fair bit to be desired, and when he tried to make his move he didn't have enough left in the tank to properly challenge.

Much better was had with our next two.

First of all, Rosoff, who started at 4/1, was given a cracking ride by his ten pound claimer Nathan Adams. Always there, he was asked for an effort as they turned for home and came to take it up just as they went over the final fence. Laura Mongan's ten year old was tired in the heavy ground but Adams rode him out well for a relatively easy win in the end, by more than four lengths. 6/1 was available at SportingBet about this one but we don't count that bookie for settlement purposes.

Grafite's win was similar to Rosoff's in a way, albeit more comfortable. Always up there throughout, he was asked to go and win his race by Brendan Powell jr from two out and despite a pretty bad error at the last, he always had more than enough and won by more than ten lengths. He started a very well backed 2/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Whitcombe Spirit, 4th/6, 6/1 --- 3/1

Rosoff, 1st/7, 11/2 --- 4/1
Grafite, 1st/5, 5/1 --- 2/1

A good day all round, and pushes January nicely into profit. Let's hope we can find our third profitable day in a row tomorrow to really keep things kicking on!

Off and running for the year

2012-01-04T15:44:00.004Z

Check Out Our 2011 Review Here

After six placed efforts in our first eight selections of 2012, including four finishing second, we were pleased to get in the winners' enclosure at Southwell this afternoon.

We had two today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Southwell Tisfreetdream 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Coral 8/1 Bet365/Totesport/SkyBet/Betfred/SportingBet
2.40 Southwell Johnny Owen 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Hills/Paddy Power

Tisfreetdream ran well, travelling nicely for a long way, but didn't have that finishing kick from a couple of hurdles' out, to end up finishing third, after starting a nicely backed 5/1.

While there was good support about for Tisfreetdream, there was plenty more about Johnny Owen in the next. It was the David Brace 6yo's handicap debut and he sauntered to success. Once Paddy Brennan let him have his head and take the lead, he just powered clear and was never looking back (although Brennan did quite a few times!). After showing precious little since a decent bumper debut, he was absolutely thrown in, starting at 3/1, and he's entered to run again at Hereford on Sunday.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Tisfreetdream, 3rd/13, 8/1 --- 5/1

Johnny Owen, 1st/8, 4/1 --- 3/1

We've had a very good start to the year in terms of getting the value and it's good to get off the mark win wise too. Roll on tomorrow!

2011 Review

2012-01-04T00:02:00.003Z

We have completed our 2011 Review, which is fairly exhaustive.

Please click here to see it:

http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/2011-review

As ever any questions or comments very welcome.

We still have a few spaces left available for 2012, with prices starting from just over £17 a month we believe we remain one of the best value services available. Members staking at just £5 a point last year would have made nearly £800 to level stakes, much more if they used a percentage of bank staking plan, as we suggest.

Join now before it's too late!

Knocking at the door

2012-01-02T21:39:00.004Z

Well today could have been a cracker, but just not quite to be, with three selections finishing second at big prices and another placed having traded odds on in running. A big pay day's surely just around the corner.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.55 Ayr Et Maintenant 2pt 11/1+ generally 12/1 Hills/Lads/Coral/VC/PaddyPower&others
2.25 Ayr Kempski 1pt 7/1+generally 15/2 Hills 8/1 Lads/Skybet
2.35 Folkestone Spaceman 1pt 14/1+generally 16/1 Lads/Hills/Bet365/Totesport&others
3.00 Ayr Bunratty 2pt 11/1+generally 12/1 Lads/Skybet/Boylesports/SportingBet
3.20 Plumpton Goring Two 1pt 5/1+generally 11/2 Hills/Bet365&others 6/1 Lads/Coral

Et Maintenant went off at 10/1 and was out-gunned by the winner who was given a really positive ride. Lucinda Russell's 10yo was staying on well at the end but just wasn't going to get there, finishing second, well clear of third.

Kempski was our only unplaced effort of the day, a bit weak before hand, starting at 10/1, the old boy was just never really travelling and ended up getting pulled up.

Like Et Maintenant, Spaceman had offered precious little recent form to speak of but ran well, finishing second, just running into one too good, after starting at 16/1.

Next up was Bunratty, our second 2pt selection of the day, and was another to run well, trading at shorter than 6/4 as he quickened clear turning for home. Sadly he couldn't keep it up, making a mistake three out as he was joined, but he rallied well again to finish second, after starting at 8/1.

So could Goring Two offer some compensation? Well he looked the likeliest winner as they went for home, trading odds on he was travelling comfortably before clattering the third last, almost coming down, which seemed to knock the stuffing out of him a bit, and he finished third, after starting at 4/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Et Maintenant, 2nd/7, 12/1 --- 10/1

Kempski, PU/6, 7/1 --- 10/1

Spaceman, 2nd/9, 16/1 --- 14/1

Bunratty, 2nd/7, 11/1 --- 8/1

Goring Two, 3rd/10, 6/1 --- 4/1

So four out of our first seven selections of 2012 have finished second at an average price (available ten mins after email delivery) of 11.5/1, that's a pretty frustrating way to start the new year! But at least the horses are running well, and we look forward to getting our rewards soon.

December Analysis

2012-01-02T12:01:00.000Z

Time for our look back at December - and a full 2011 review will follow in the next day or two as well.

December was a funny month as although we ended in profit, our average SP was higher than our average advised stake for the first time this year. This is mainly down to the poor performance of our larger priced selections, too many of whom uncharacteristically drifted in price, the biggest being a 19pt swing with Trecase advised at 14/1 and went off at 33s. Annoying.

Let's look at the stats:

Bets: 42

Wins: 7 (16.67%)

2nds: 1 (2.4%)

3rds: 5 (11.9%)

Placed total: 13 (31%)

Average odds taken: 8.02/1

Average SP: 8.79/1

Average win odds: 6.37/1

Profit/Loss: +4.6pts

Return On Investment: +9.79%

It's a good win rate, but our average priced winner is pretty low hence the small profit for the month. We would have had 9.6pts of profit (ROI +22.86%) if we had kept the five two point selections to one point. These 2pt picks (on some of our bigger priced selections) are on a poor run at the moment and have dragged down the points total for a while now.

However they were still highly profitable for 2011 as a whole and it will only take a one or two of them to come in to swing things around hugely.

More on their performance in the 2011 review!

Publish Post

2012 underway

2012-01-01T22:08:00.003Z

So we're under way for the new year! Unfortunately neither of our two selections could give us win-backers a return today, but away we go and roll on the next twelve months.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.25 Musselburgh Rumble Of Thunder 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Paddy Power 7/1 Lads/Bet365/Hills/Coral/Totesport&others
3.00 Musselburgh Premier Sagas 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Hills/Bet365/PP &others

Rumble Of Thunder was possibly one that got away, Kate Walton's 6yo was beginning to really pick up coming to the last and was within a length or two of the leader but hit the last hurdle so hard he almost fell, giving up all chance, after starting at 7/1. A frustrating way to start the new year!

Then came Premier Sagas, who was nicely backed into 5/1 at the off, and stayed on well towards the end, into second, well behind the comfortable winner Fiendish Flame (a winner for us last month).

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Rumble Of Thunder, 6th/11, 7/1 --- 7/1

Premier Sagas, 2nd/11, 7/1 --- 5/1

It was interesting to see, by the way, an unplaced selection for us last month, Mostly Bob, landing a big late gamble at Cheltenham today. Available at 11/1 in the morning, he was backed near the off right into 9/2 and stayed on really well in the 1.35 to win quite easily in the end. Our "Next Time Out" analysis continues to be of great interest, looking at those runners who miss the frame for us.

Slow end to a brilliant year - roll on 2012!

2011-12-31T18:53:00.004Z

We would have liked to have gone out firing today on the last day of the year but we ended with just one selection, running at Warwick, and it was all a bit of a damp squib!

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.50 Warwick Silver Dollars 1pt 10/1+ generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Totesport&others 14/1 Bet365

Silver Dollars won this race last year but was a bit weak on course, drifting to 16/1 SP, and never really got involved at all, finishing off well behind the leaders.

Summary of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Silver Dollars, 7th/8, 12/1 --- 16/1

So with that, we wave goodbye to 2011, which has in the main been a fantastic year. Naturally we're disappointed to stutter somewhat to the finishing line, but if we had been offered a +20%ROI and near 160pt profit back on January 1st we certainly would have taken it. We'll complete a detailed yearly review in the next few days.

We wish you all a very Happy New Year and the very best for 2012.

No selections today

2011-12-30T17:43:00.002Z

Quick one to say we had no selections today. Last day of the year tomorrow then and let's hope we end what's been a terrific 2011 on a high!

Gutsy winner

2011-12-29T19:23:00.003Z

A cracking gutsy winner from our one selection today, Shadows Lengthen, at Doncaster.

Let's start the latest catch up yesterday, though, where we had one pick:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.00 Leicester Flichity 1pt 14/1+generally inc. 16/1 Bet365/Coral/StanJames&others some 20/1 Totesport

And there's not a great deal to be said about Flichity's effort. Never really travelling he was behind from an early stage, after starting at 16/1.

Then onto today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.20 Doncaster Shadows Lengthen 1pt 6/1+ generally 13/2 Lads/Hills&others 7/1 Bet365/Coral/VC/SportingBet

A complete contrast from yesterday's pick. Mick Easterby's 5yo was always travelling beautifully, and took it up three hurdles from home. It looked like he might go on to score quite comfortably, but the favourite battled back, helped by a small error by ours at the last, but Shadows Lengthen kept finding all the way to the line to win by a neck. Great stuff! Sadly a 20pt R4 reduced returns somewhat, but still, a good day.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday 28th December 2011:

Flichity, PU/9, 16/1 --- 16/1

Thursday 29th December 2011:

Shadows Lengthen, 1st/7, 7/1 --- 5/1

The result leaves December 5.6pts in profit, and with a couple more days of the year left, to hopefully lock in some more profit if and when the opportunities arise.

Festive catch-up

2011-12-27T22:56:00.005Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +278.07pts

So we've had a couple of days since Christmas Day, and we're slightly up from where we were from our last main update.

Let's start yesterday, Boxing Day, where we had five selections:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.30 Wincanton Tuskar 1pt 7/2+ inc. 4/1 Totesport/Betfred 9/2 Bet365/Skybet
12.45 Huntingdon Eliades Run 1pt 11/2+ inc. 6/1 Hills 13/2 PP 7/1 Lads/Coral
1.15 Wetherby Trecase 2pt 11/1+ generally inc. 12/1 Coral/VC/Lads/Boyles 14/1 Hills/PP
2.10 Market Rasen River Dragon 1pt 13/2+ generally inc 7/1 Lads/PP/Coral&others
2.20 Wetherby Arctic Wings 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 PP/SportingBet 8/1 Hills

It's safe to say that things started off poorly to say the least.

Tuskar drifted like a barge (SP 12/1) and ran accordingly. His stable-mate was backed late but also ran poorly. This is a stable we approach with caution and we'll be even more vigilant going forward.

At least a little bit of value was had with Eliades Run who started at 6/1, though should have been 66/1 given the performance. Struggling almost immediately, it was only a matter of time before he was pulled up. Surely this wasn't the horse's true running.

Trecase continued the disappointment and wins the award for biggest drift of the year. Well let's just say 2pts at 33/1 would have been a good retun with BOG in play if he had made a mockery of those seemingly keen to lay at whatever price they could on the exchanges. Sadly, as is often the case, no mockery was had and the horse despite substantial morning support ran extremely poorly, although at least did get round! This was strange market activity and this one may just be one to keep half an eye out for going forward.

So with these results in the books we were certainly hoping for an upturn, and we got it from a cracking performance from River Dragon at Market Rasen. He looked a bit flat footed for a stride or two as the pace quickened but he relentlessly wore down the principles to win in the end very comfortably, after starting a very well supported 100/30.

So could Arctic Wings give us a quick-fire double to end the day very strongly? Sadly not, he stayed on nicely towards the end to get placed, but was never quite getting there, beaten just over five lengths in third, after starting at 8/1.

So when the dust settled, we were left with a profit of two points from our five selections.

On to today, Tuesday 27th December, and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Chepstow Plein Pouvoir 1pt 6/1+generally inc 13/2 Bet365/Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet

Plein Pouvoir travelled sweetly for a long time in the testing conditions at Chepstow, trading just over 6/4 in running quite some way from home. But sadly it wasn't to be, as he began to struggle when things got serious and he ended up being run out of the places, after going off at 6/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP:)

Monday 26th December 2011:

Tuskar, PU/12, 9/2 --- 12/1

Eliades Run, PU/8 7/1 --- 6/1

Trecase, 9th/12, 14/1 --- 33/1

River Dragon, 1st/9, 7/1 --- 100/30

Arctic Wings, 3rd/11, 8/1 -- 8/1

Tuesday 27th December 2011:

Plein Pouvoir, 5th/14, 13/2 --- 6/1

So, not many days left of 2011, let's hope we can end the year with something of a bang.

Good Boxing Day

2011-12-26T20:29:00.003Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +279.07pts

We hope you're having a great Christmas. What a star Kauto is! Just a quick one tonight to say we had a nice 7/1 winner today. Not so good from our four other picks, but a nice profit on the day nonetheless!

Full update tomorrow.

All the best.

No early present this year

2011-12-22T21:08:00.004Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +277.07pts

Well, no early present today, with a couple of disappointing performances.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.20 Sedgefield Samson Collonges 1pt 5/1 generally
2.20 Sedgefield Sleep In First 1pt 8/1 generally maybe some 9/1 Boylesports

Both these came in nicely in price, though sadly both failed to deliver.

Samson Collonges was well supported into 11/4 at the off, but just never got involved. Held up off the pace, as he tried to get competitive he made a mistake five out which just about finished him off, although he never looked like landing a blow, very disappointing.

Then came Sleep In First, who started at 6/1, and raced wide looking for the better ground. He looked a possible player for a moment or two as he began to close on the leaders but sadly the run soon flattened out.

Confirmation of results with prices (Advised --- SP):

Samson Collonges, 8th/13, 5/1 --- 11/4
Sleep In First, 7th/12, 8/1 --- 6/1

We hope you have a very Merry Christmas.

Quiet day

2011-12-21T22:12:00.003Z

Just a quick one tonight to say we had no selections today.

Last day of action before the Christmas break tomorrow, so hopefully we can get stuck in and find one or two decent winners!

Great winner

2011-12-20T15:30:00.003Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +279.07pts

A great winner this afternoon in the form of Triple Bluff, who won with any amount in hand at Taunton. No such luck with our other selection, so we finish the day 6pts up.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00 Taunton Legion D'Honneur 1pt 6/1 generally
2.30 Taunton Triple Bluff 1pt 7/1 generally

Legion D'Honneur was a bit short of room as he tried to creep closer to the leaders and after that he was never really in it, although he was staying on again towards the finish, after going off at 8/1.

Then came Triple Bluff, who continued to be nicely backed into 5/1 and won like a 1/5 shot, always tanking along, taking it up about five fences from home, and just cantering clear of a struggling field. It was just a case of surviving the last couple of jumps, and though he wasn't hugely tidy, he did it nicely enough and ended up winning eased down. Lovely stuff!

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Legion D'Honneur, 9th/11, 6/1 --- 8/1
Triple Bluff, 1st/10, 7/1 --- 5/1

Not quite golden

2011-12-19T20:46:00.003Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +273.07pts

Well, no returns today but a couple of decent efforts and at least we got a value price with both of these, which hasn't been the case as often as we would like just lately.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00 Plumpton It's A Classic 1pt 5/1 generally
2.30 Plumpton Jenny's Gold 2pt 11/1+generally 12/1 Lads/Hills/Totesport/Coral/PaddyPower among others

It's A Classic ran well, but was just a bit unlucky to run into one obviously well ahead of the handicapper. Always up there, he stayed on quite nicely, into a clear second, but was never going to get close to the winner, after starting at 7/2.

Then came Jenny's Gold, our third 2pt pick in the last few days. She travelled nicely for a good part of the race and looked like she might be a player as they approached home, touching just over 2/1 in running. But her effort emptied out and she finished 6th in the end, after going off at 9/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

It's A Classic, 2nd/11, 5/1 --- 7/2
Jenny's Gold, 6th/12, 12/1 --- 9/1

It's been a pretty frustrating last few days, so let's hope we get a bit of Christmas cheer tomorrow!

All quiet

2011-12-18T17:06:00.004Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +276.07pts

We didn't have any selections today, 18th December. Hope you had a profitable Sunday if you got involved!

Poor couple of days

2011-12-17T20:05:00.008Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +276.07pts

We've missed the target these last couple of days, all a bit frustrating, and we've had a couple more big priced 2pt efforts go awry. We've still got a cracking record with these in 2011, but it's been a while since one came home and we're certainly looking forward to when one or two roll in, as variance begins to right itself again.

Anyway let's start our latest look back with yesterday's two picks:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.45 Uttoxeter Desert Nova 2pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Lads/Bet365/VC/Boyles/Stan James/SportingBet
2.55 Uttoxeter Captain Tidds 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Bet365/Lads/Stan James

Desert Nova went on a bit of a walk in the market pre-race, but ran with credit despite that, looking a threat for much of the contest, travelling nicely, but not being able to have the finishing kick when needed. He started at 18/1.

Captain Tidds looked beaten when unseating four out.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.25 Ascot Fix The Rib 2pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Totesport/Paddy Power&others 16/1 Lads/SkyBet
1.35 Newcastle La Pantera Rosa 1pt 11/2+ generally inc. maybe some 6/1 Boylesports

Pretty poor from both these today really. Fix The Rib led as he likes to do, but his run flattened out a fair way from home. He started at 12/1.

La Pantera Rosa went on a huge pre-race drift, doubling in odds in the space of a few minutes, which we've found to be unusual for backed Micky Hammond runners. After leading for a good while, he faded before four out to finish well beaten, after going off at 10/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 16th December 2011:

Desert Nova, 4th/13, 14/1 --- 18/1
Captain Tidds, UR/8, 10/1 --- 12/1

Saturday 17th December 2011:

Fix The Rib, 7th/10, 16/1 --- 12/1
La Pantera Rosa, 7th/9, 11/2 --- 10/1

So, a frustrating couple of days, and hopefully Carlisle will be on tomorrow so we can get a chance to spin the weekend around into profit.

Going close

2011-12-15T15:38:00.006Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +282.07pts

We went pretty close to following up yesterday's winner with our one selection today finishing a decent third at Exeter.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Exeter Me Julie 1pt 7/1 generally

Arthur Whiting's 8yo set off in the lead and she travelled very sweetly for much of the race. A furlong or two from home she just began to feel it a little, and when the challengers came she wasn't quite able to fend them off, ending up finishing third, beaten only a couple of lengths, after starting at 6/1. A good effort and for a moment or two it looked like she might be able to skip clear and win quite comfortably. Not to be though and we look forward to tomorrow.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Me Julie, 3rd/9, 7/1 --- 6/1

Getting up on the line

2011-12-14T15:50:00.009Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +283.07pts

A terrific 8/1 winner today, with Share Option getting up on the line to win the 2.50 at Bangor, rewarding an excellent, determined ride from 3lb claimer Lee Edwards.

We had three going for us in total today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.40 Bangor Drom 1pt 8/1 generally
1.10 Bangor Bear Dancing 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred/StanJames
2.50 Bangor Share Option 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2VC&others 6/1 Bet365/Lads/Totesport&others

Drom continued to nicely backed into 11/2, and ran well for a good while, before fading from about four out, to finish 5th.

Bear Dancing travelled nicely enough before making a mistake after which he never seemed to really be travelling and ended up getting pulled up, after going off at 11/2.

Then came Share Option, who won a dramatic conditional jockeys handicap. Always going nicely enough, it looked as though he was going to have to settle for minor honours when Pampelonne went for home and stretched about four lengths clear going to the last. But while the leader met the last ok, he seemed to lose his back legs momentarily, which gave the initiative to Tony Carroll's 9yo who stayed on really strongly under a cracking ride by Lee Edwards to get up by a neck. While he was backed into around 4/1 earlier in the day, he drifted to 8/1 by the off which gave us a couple of extra points thanks to BOG.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Drom, 5th/11, 8/1 --- 11/2

Bear Dancing, PU/9, 11/2 --- 6/1

Share Option, 1st/10, 6/1 --- 8/1

On to tomorrow!

Maria misses the target

2011-12-13T22:26:00.005Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +277.07pts

Just the one selection today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40 Folkestone Maria's Rock 1pt 7/2+ generally 4/1 Hills/Coral/Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred/SportingBet

Maria's Rock was making her seasonal reappearance and ran well enough for a long way before not being able to go with the two leaders, to finish in the end third, but beaten a fair way, after starting at 4/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Maria's Rock, 3rd/10, 4/1 --- 4/1

A step backwards

2011-12-12T20:53:00.006Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +278.07pts

It's been quite a slow few days since our last update, three picks on Friday, none on Saturday, and one each on Sunday and Monday.

Let's start on Friday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.35 Doncaster Blake Dean 1pt 5/1+ generally inc. 11/2 VC/Hills/PP 6/1 Bet365/Coral
1.45 Cheltenham Mostly Bob 1pt 5/1+ generally inc. 11/2 Lads&others 6/1 Hills/Bet365
2.45 Doncaster Royal Kicks 1pt 9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Hills/Lads/SkyBet/Boyle/SportingBet/StanJames

Blake Dean went off at 9/2 and was given a patient ride from the back for much of the contest, his handicap debut. While he stayed on nicely towards the end he was never going to get too near the principles, finishing sixth, around nine lengths behind the winner (a recent selection of ours, Arrow Barrow).

Then came Mostly Bob at Cheltenham, who made far too many errors to stay competitive in a quality handicap like the one he was racing in, finishing 5th after going off 9/2.

Royal Kicks (6/1sp) may have got us a return, but we'll never know, falling at the ninth fence.

We had no selections on Saturday, and on Sunday just the one:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.45 Hereford Border Lad 1pt 6/1+ generally inc. 13/2 Hills/Stan James/SkyBet 7/1 Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred

The conditions at Hereford were really testing by the time we got to the last race and while Border Lad travelled sweetly enough early on, he gradually began to struggle and finished well tailed off, after starting at 13/2.

And then today (Monday) we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Fakenham Monroe Park 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 VC&others 12/1 Coral/Totesport/Betfred

Monroe Park went off a nicely supported 7/1 and was moving quite promisingly for a while, before not being able to quicken when asked to, and he ended up pulling up, a frustrating effort.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 9th December 2011:

Blake Dean, 6th/12, 6/1 --- 9/2

Mostly Bob, 5th/6, 11/2 --- 9/2

Royal Kicks, F/8, 5/1 --- 6/1

Saturday 10th December 2011:

No selections

Sunday 11th December 2011:

Border Lad, 12th/16, 7/1 --- 13/2

Monday 12th December 2011:

Monroe Park, PU/11, 10/1 --- 7/1

So while we may have beaten SP in four of these last five selections, we'll certainly look for better results tomorrow.

By the way, can we wish very happy retirements to Denman and The Tatling, racing will miss them both, and how great it was to see The Tatling win today in his last race at the age of 14.

Marvellous Midnight

2011-12-08T20:27:00.005Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +283.07pts

A cracking winner today to push December back to +6pts, with Midnight Haze putting in a really gutsy performance to win, in the end, quite comfortably at Ludlow today.

We had three selections in all:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.20 Taunton She's On The Case 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Coral/Boylesports maybe some 6/1 SkyBet 13/2 SportingBet
2.40 Ludlow Midnight Haze 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Hills/Skybet/SportingBet/Stan James
3.10 Ludlow Bill The Yank 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills/VC/Coral&others maybe some 11/1 Stan James

She's On The Case (SP 5/1) was held up out the back, but couldn't quicken through the field quickly enough to get competitive, although she stayed on nicely enough into fourth to show that she probably has a race in her before too long.

Midnight Haze was the star of the day, helping to force the pace throughout in pretty rough conditions, he battled ahead, repelling a series of challengers to storm home in the end by more than ten lengths. Another great training performance with Kim Bailey's 9yo winning again after a long lay off, this time around eleven months, after starting at 9/2.

Bill The Yank was reported to have returned lame, finishing tailed off, after doubling in odds in the hour pre-race (SP 16/1).

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

She's On The Case, 4th/13, 11/2 --- 5/1

Midnight Haze, 1st/9, 6/1 --- 9/2

Bill The Yank, 9th/9, 10/1 --- 16/1

Interestingly, three of our recent selections performed with credit again today. Qualitee won at 3/1, Inga Bird won at 10/1 and Posh Emily came third at 16/1. These three came 1st, 2nd and 1st for us respectively in the last two or three weeks.

Poor show

2011-12-07T22:57:00.009Z

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +279.07pts

A nothing sort of showing from our first 2pt pick of December, pretty frustrating.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.00 Leicester Ranjobaie 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Hills 12/1 Lads/Totesport/Boylesport/Betfred/SportingBet

This Venetia Williams trained 6yo was nicely backed for a good while but went on a huge pre-race drift which set the alarm bells ringing, and so it proved. Seemingly going well enough in mid division he dropped away and was soon pulled up a long way from home. This horse is getting dangerously well handicapped and is the type to pop up somewhere, just not for us today.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Ranjobaie, PU/11, 12/1 --- 16/1

Some decent looking NH racing tomorrow so there could be plenty of opportunities to get stuck into, so we're looking forward to that.

Going close

2011-12-06T21:01:00.004Z

We've been going close over these last couple of days, but it's not quite worked out, including a selection today who very possibly would have won had he not made a complete mess of the second last fence.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.50 Musselburgh Everaard 1pt 7/1 generally (bog)

2.10 Plumpton Manmoon 1pt 6/1+ generally inc. 13/2 HillsCoral, Boyles 7/1 Bet365, Skybet, Sportingbet

Everaard ran a solid race, always up there with the leaders but just not quite able to have that finishing kick to get in front, finishing third, beaten around six lengths, after starting at 8/1.

Manmoon put in a good showing, positively ridden he was bang up there throughout and looked a big player close to home, trading as short as 1.26, but he just couldn't finish the job, and came third, beaten less than a couple of lengths after starting at 15/2.

Then today we had another selection go short in running before being turned over:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Fontwell Caspar Of Tarsus 1pt 7/1 generally 8/1 Lads

3.40 Fontwell Pur De Sivola 1pt 8/1+generally 9/1 VC/Coral/PP 10/1 Lads/Bluesq 11/1 Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet

The horse in question being Caspar of Tarsus (sp 6/1), who always travelled strongly and looked a massive player in the closing stages, being asked to take the lead going over the second last. Unfortunately that's where he met the fence all wrong and Paddy Brennan did really well to stay on. To the gelding's great credit, he rallied again and took it up going over the last, but looked tired, with the energy used in staying on his feet two out possibly telling, and he was out on his feet close home, fading to finish fourth in the end. A really brave effort and after hitting 1.21 in running possibly one that got away.

Not so good from Pur De Sivola, who drifted on track to 16/1 on his first start for nearly a couple of years. He was up there for a while and just for a moment looked like being a player, but soon dropped through the field to finish well back

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday December 5th 2011:

Everaard, 3rd/12, 7/1 --- 8/1

Manmoon, 3rd/10, 7/1 --- 15/2

Tuesday December 6th 2011:

Caspar of Tarsus, 4th/10, 8/1 --- 6/1

Pur De Sivola, 9th/11, 11/1 --- 16/1

So, four points dropped in the last couple of days and with a couple of our selections going pretty low odds-on in running we can probably count ourselves a bit unlucky to have not registered a winner. Still, selections continue to run well in the main and we look forward to hopefully getting back to the winners enclosure tomorrow.

December further into profit

2011-12-04T19:31:00.005Z

Our good start to December continues, with a nice 5/1 winner today.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Kelso Lady Bluesky 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Stan James
2.30 Kelso Nine De Sivola 1pt 6/1+generally 7/1 Lads/Totesport & others

Lady Bluesky ran out a wonderfully gutsy winner. She upped the pace in the middle of the contest, and stayed on really bravely to win by just over a length, after starting at 5/1. Great to see a really genuine mare get her rewards.

Then in the Scottish Borders National, Nine De Sivola (SP 7/1) couldn't follow up. He was making ground at one stage which for a moment or two looked promising, but the challenge faded and he ended up getting pulled up.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Lady Bluesky, 1st/10, 5/1 --- 5/1
Nine De Sivola, PU/12, 7/1 --- 7/1

So December is 8pts to the good with two winners from our five selections, and we look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings.

Quiet couple of days

2011-12-03T20:14:00.003Z

Just the one runner since our last update, which was yesterday and was unplaced. Today's was pulled out as a non-runner.

So on Friday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Exeter Sound Accord 1pt 12/1+generally inc, 14/1 in many places inc. Lads/Bet365/Hills/PP, 16/1 Boylesports

Which didn't really work out. First he went off at 20/1 at post time, and although he showed up well enough for a long time, he faded before the end and ended up getting pulled up.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.45 Wetherby Cool Operator 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred

Who unfortunately was a non-runner.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 2nd December 2011

Sound Accord, PU/13, 14/1 --- 20/1

Saturday 3rd December 2011

Cool Operator NR

Hope you're having a good weekend so far, roll on tomorrow!

Good start to December

2011-12-01T16:27:00.004Z

We're off and running for December, with a solid five points profit secured thanks to a very comfortable success with our first selection of the month.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00 Leicester Fiendish Flame 1pt 11/2+generally 6/1 Lads/Hills/Boyles
2.10 Wincanton Tarquinius 1pt 7/2+generally 4/1 Lads/Coral

It's very unusual that we have selections also made by Hugh Taylor, but conditions were right today and Fiendish Flame ran out an extremely impressive winner. Leading from the start, he was never headed and saw his rivals off one at a time, unchallenged, to win by nearly 20 lengths, after going off at 11/2. Lovely stuff.

Tarquinius couldn't follow up (SP 4/1). He was prominent for a long time, but dropped away tamely to be pulled up four from home.

Confirmation of selections with prices (advised --- SP):

Fiendish Flame, 1st/6, 6/1 --- 11/2

Tarquinius, PU/7, 4/1 --- 4/1

So a good start to the month, and on to tomorrow we go!

November Analysis

2011-11-30T21:24:00.003Z

As we've written about before, monthly updates don't really matter a whole lot, in terms of what we're looking for is profits over 12 months+. However it is of course quite interesting to see how we do month to month, so here's our look at November 2011.

We finished -6.5pts down in the end, and if we could have avoided the first seven days we'd have finished nicely in profit, such was our poor start to the month.

Here are the stats:

Bets: 54

Wins: 7 (12.96%)

2nds: 8 (14.81%)

3rds: 8 (14.81%)

Placed total: 14 (42.59%)

Average odds taken: 7.34/1

Average SP: 6.17/1

Average win odds: 6.21/1

Profit/Loss: -6.5pts

Return On Investment: -11.4%

Historically we would have expected one more winner than the seven we had, with our win rate a couple of ticks below standard (normally just shy of 15%). In the main, the selections have been running well, with more than 42% making the frame (naturally we ignore our third place finishers in races of less than eight runners). That placed monthly total is our third highest of 2011. With eight seconds at prices of up to 14/1 it's easy to see how the month could have been profitable, but still, it wasn't quite to be.

42 of our selections started either shorter or the same price as was available ten minutes after email delivery (78%), which is very pleasing, and we beat SP by an average of almost 1.2pts per selection. Multiply that by 1000 bets and you can see where our profits will come from going forward.

Qualitee is Quality

2011-11-30T16:06:00.004Z

We had no selections yesterday, but today we had a winning day to end the month, with Qualitee running out a terrific winner at Uttoxeter for us. We had one placed from our other three selections.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.00 Catterick Emotive 1pt 5/1 genererally inc. Bet365/Lads 11/2 Totesport/Betfred

2.50 Hereford Ours 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/Hills/VC/Coral/PP/Totesport&others
3.10 Uttoxeter Qualitee 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Lads/Hills/Coral/Boylesports
3.20 Hereford Just Playfull 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Hills/Coral/Boylesports 9/1Totesport/Skybet/Betfred

Emotive was weak on course and started at 13/2 and never really showed at all in a disappointing effort.

Ours, who went off at 15/2 after being very strongly supported this morning, was up there for a good part of the race but suddenly dropped away and was pulled out. Perhaps something was amiss?

Then we had Qualitee, who was well backed right into 7/2 on her first handicap start over the minimum chase trip. She was given a lovely positive ride, and jumped for fun and the win was never in much doubt some way from home. She won by 17 lengths officially.

And then we looked to Just Playfull to really give us a nice end to the month, and was pleased to see him supported into 11/2 SP. He raced prominently, jumping nicely for the most part, but just lost his place a couple from home, finishing third, comfortably clear of fourth.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Emotive, 8th/11, 5/1 --- 13/2

Ours, PU/9, 6/1 --- 15/2

Qualitee, 1st/7, 13/2 --- 7/2

Just Playfull, 3rd/11, 9/1 --- 11/2

So November ends positively, and with plenty of grounds for optimism for the coming weeks. We've had more than 40% of our selections placed this month, with no less than eight seconds, and it won't take much of a tweak in fortune to have us make big strides forward again.

We'll be doing our monthly review soon.

Kilkenny the star

2011-11-28T20:10:00.004Z

A small profit from the last update, with one winner at 13/2 kicking off our Saturday, but things not quite building from there.

So let's start on Saturday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.45 Bangor Kilkenny All Star 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Hills/VC/Coral & others

2.05 Newbury Titan De Sarti 1pt 8/1 in most places
3.00 Bangor Arctic Wings 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Skybet/SportingBet 8/1 Totesport/Betfred
3.45 Newbury Osric 1pt 9/1 in most places

Kilkenny All Star gave us a perfect start to Saturday, who was nicely backed for Sue Smith into 5/1. He had dropped to a good mark and was given a terrific, determined ride and he got up near the line. Lovely!

On to Titan De Sarti, who disputed the lead for much of the race before about three out and then faded away, after going off at 13/2.

Arctic Wings was next up, and again we got the price with Tony Carroll's six year old going off at 5/1. He probably wasn't helped by the dawdle they went early on, and subsequently got outpaced when things quickened up three out. He then stayed on well into fourth, an annoying race really from our point of view.

Then came Osric who went off a very well supported 7/2 and looked to be coming with a promising run as they turned for home, but he couldn't sustain it to finish 6th.

On Sunday we had a second placed finish from our one selection which ran:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.25 Carlisle Etxalar 1pt 11/2 +generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/Skybet/Boylesports

3.00 Carlisle City Ground 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/Stan James 9/1 Skybet/Boylesports 10/1 Totesport/Betfred/Bluesq

Etxalar ran a good race, always there and in contention, but he just couldn't quite go with the eventual winner and although he stayed on again, he could only finish 2nd, beaten six lengths, after going off at 11/2.

City Ground was a non-runner.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.30 Folkestone What's For Tea 1pt 14/1+generally inc. 16/1 Lads/Coral/VC/Boyle/SportingBet

And we'll never know whether we missed out on a decent pay day, with Paddy Butler's mare going off a nicely backed 9/1 but being brought down by the favourite at the second hurdle...

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 26th November 2011:

Kilkenny All Star, 1st/6, 13/2 --- 5/1

Titan De Sarti, 8th/11, 8/1 --- 13/2

Arctic Wings, 4th/9, 7/1 --- 5/1

Osric, 6th/ 14 9/1 --- 7/2

Sunday 27th November 2011:

Etxalar, 2nd/7, 6/1 --- 11/2

City Ground NR

Monday 28th November 2011:

What's For Tea, BD/6, 16/1 --- 9/1

So a 1.5pt profit since the end of Friday.

Just to say as well, our thoughts are of course with Gary Speed's friends and family. A real footballing legend who will be very sadly missed.

Poor day

2011-11-25T15:24:00.003Z

Well last Friday we were heading into the weekend with a bit of a spring in our step after one winner from our one selection.

Not so this week, with four picks today not doing the business, although at least one gave us a good run for our money, finishing second after trading odds on, not that that's any great consolation!

So we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.10 Musselburgh Isla Patriot 1pt 8/1+ generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/VC/Coral/Betfred/Bluesq

2.35 Doncaster Gentleman Anshan 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Totesport 7/1 Lads/VC/SportingBet/Bluesq
2.45 Newbury Carribs Leap 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Lads/Coral/Totesport&others maybe some 10/1 Boyle
2.55 Musselburgh Sheriff Hall 1pt 6/1+generally inc 13/2 VC/Boyle

Three of these four started shorter than we had this morning (as usual, prices taken ten minutes after email delivery).

Isla Patriot went off a nicely supported 6/1 shot and looked promising for a stride or two about four from home, but his run soon flattened out.

Gentleman Anshan was our drifter, going off at 10/1 but looked to be going nicely as they turned for home but frustratingly soon lost his place.

Carribs Leap was in mid division and throughout apart from when things quickened, and he was well beaten, after starting at 8/1.

And so we turned to Sheriff Hall, who did his best to make the day a profitable one for us. He eased into a big lead, which he held until he was headed going over the last fence, and to his great credit he battled back, and was a bit short of room as he had to be switched right, but he went down a battling second, after going off at 9/2.

Confirmation of prices with prices (advised --- SP):

Isla Patriot, 7th/8, 8/1 --- 6/1

Gentleman Anshan, 5th/9, 13/2 --- 10/1

Carribs Leap, 8th/10, 9/1 --- 8/1

Sheriff Hall, 2nd/10, 6/1 --- 9/2

We'll try to update over the weekend, but it's most likely that our next update will be on Monday. Until then, have a great weekend!

Excellent Emily

2011-11-24T22:37:00.006Z

A nice winner today, so a 3pt profit since the last update.

Let's start yesterday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.50 Fontwell Madame Jasmine 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Hills/Stan James 7/1 Lads/Coral/Boylesports

We got some nice value with Madame Jasmine, with the selection going off at 4/1, but didn't get our rewards, although she didn't run too badly. She traded at just over 6/4 in running as she closed on the leaders but seemed to not quite stay the trip and finished third.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Newbury Tony Star 1pt 13/2+ generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Bet365/Boyle/Totesport/SkyBet/Betfred/Bluesq

4.00 Taunton Posh Emily 1pt 5/1 generally and maybe some 11/2 Totesport/BetFred

We got the price with these two as well.

Tony Star ran pretty well for Philip Hobbs, staying on nicely, well clear of third, just a shame he ran into one much too good in Paul Nicholls' Empire Levant, after going off at 9/2.

And then we turned to Posh Emily to give us a return, and so she did. Always up there, it looked like the eventual second had skipped clear, and she actually traded 100 in running before finishing really powerfully to win quite comfortably in the end, by nearly a couple of lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday 23rd November 2011:

Madame Jasmine, 3rd/6, 13/2 --- 4/1

Thursday 24th November 2011:

Tony Star, 2nd/6, 7/1 --- 9/2

Posh Emily, 1st/7, 5/1 --- 7/2

We're still a bit down for the month but since November 7th we're 7.5pts up and there's still plenty of time to spin the month into profit, let's hope we can bag a decent priced winner or two in the next few days, we're due one.

Ready for lift off

2011-11-22T22:06:00.004Z

Not a great last couple of days and November's proving a bit of a frustrating month. Just when things get back on track and we look to kick on, things have just dropped away a little again.

If feels like it's time for a decent bank boost, long term members know that when they come along things really can be explosive. It's been a little while now since our last rush, and every day which passes means we're closer to variance falling back on our side again.

Anyway let's start our look back with yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40 Kempton Missionaire 1pt 4/1+generally 9/2 VC, ToteSport&others, 5/1 Lads

And Missionaire was not our finest hour of 2011. A big mover in the morning, he went on a huge drift on-course, and went off an extraordinary 12/1. Not really the idea and so it panned out. Although he was up there for a while, and actually looked to be travelling ok for a moment or too, he weakened out of it when the pace quickened to finish fourth.

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Sedgefield Ottos Quercus 1pt 6/1+ generally inc/ 13/2 Bet365/Coral/Boyle 7/1 Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet/Bluesq

3.00 Sedgefield Finbin 1pt 8/1 generally
3.30 Sedgefield Arrow Barrow 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 7/1 Bet365/Totesport/Coral/Betfred/Stan James

3.30 Sedgefield Lochore 1pt 10/1 generally

Ottos Quercus was held up and made some good ground up to get placed in third but was never really able to challenge the front two, after being nicely backed into 9/2.

Finbin drifted to 10/1 and never travelled a yard.

Better were the displays from Arrow Barrow and Lochore, who both looked possible contenders at various stages. Arrow Barrow travelled nicely for a long time, but faded into fourth, while Lochore came with a good looking challenge but couldn't follow it through. They started at 11/2 and 8/1 respectively.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 21st November 2011

Missionaire, 4th/7, 9/2 --- 12/1

Tuesday 22nd November 2011

Ottos Quercus, 3rd/10, 13/2 --- 9/2

Finbin, PU/10, 8/1 --- 10/1

Arrow Barrow, 4th/14, 7/1 --- 11/2

Lochore, 6th/14, 10/1 --- 8/1

On to tomorrow!

Forward a bit, back a bit

2011-11-20T19:59:00.006Z

We've dropped back a few points this weekend, but we were quite close to a cracking return when our 2pt 14/1 shot on Saturday came second. Once one or two of those go in we'll be flying again.

Let's start with yesterday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Ascot Annimation 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Bet365/Hills/SkyBet 14/1Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet
3.20 Ascot Dan Breen 1pt 9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Bet365

Totesport held Annimation at 14/1 for a good while but the support really came later, with Seamus Mullins' 7yo going off at 6/1. She ran a good race, travelling nicely, but the winner just took the race by the scruff of the neck by going for home about three out and ours was a little too far off the pace to pick up the move. She stayed on strongly into second, but well beaten by the winner. Would have been a lovely pick-up, but not quite to be this time.

Dan Breen was well supported as David Pipe looked to continue his good form, going off at 7/2. While he was up there for a good while he suddenly dropped away in most disappointing fashion. Ironically his stable mate won the race.

And then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Exeter Baseball Ted 1pt 5/1 generally inc Lads/Hills/Bet365

2.45 Towcester Beat All Out 1pt 9/1 + generally, inc 10/1 Bet365, 11/1 Boyles 12/1 Lads

And neither of these did a whole lot for us to say the least.

Baseball Ted was looking to win the race for the second year running and helped set the pace, but faded out of things, after going off 5/1

We didn't see much of Beat All Out's performance with the fog descending at Towcester, but it was clear it wasn't up to much, although he did seem to pick up in the middle of the race before dropping away, after going off at 10/1

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 19th November 2011

Annimation, 2nd/11, 14/1 --- 6/1

Dan Breen, 8th/11, 9/2 --- 7/2

Sunday 20th November 2011

Baseball Ted, 7th/7, 5/1 --- 5/1

Beat All Out, 12th/12, 10/1 --- 10/1

Back to the winners enclosure

2011-11-18T17:03:00.003Z

A good winner from our one selection today.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.55 Ascot Featherbed Lane 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads

Featherbed Lane was nicely supported on his first start for Philip Hobbs, going off a 4/1 shot, and was shaken up a fair way from home to make sure he was competitive. The tactics work as he stayed on really stoutly to win by more than two lengths from the well backed favourite, and could be one to stay on the right side of.

Confirmation of results with price (advised --- SP):

Featherbed Lane, 1st/9, 5/1 --- 4/1

2pter missing the target

2011-11-17T19:28:00.003Z

We've not had a 2pt selection win for quite a while, although overall we're well up in terms of our staking for the year. It'll come along sooner or later.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.55 Hereford Acapulco Bay 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Coral/Totesport/Betfred/Paddy Power 14/1 Lads/SportingBet maybe some 16/1 Stan James

2.20 Market Rasen Le Burf 1pt 4/1+ generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Coral/Totesport/Betfred/Stan James

Acapulco Bay, running from a lower handicap mark than when he won nicely at Warwick a couple of years ago, was nicely backed this morning, but weak on course. He ran well enough for a while, but faded towards the end to finish well beaten. He went off at 12/1.

Le Burf ran with some credit, staying on purposefully at the end to be placed, after going off at 5/1. Things just happened a bit quickly for him in the middle section of the race, but he's probably on a mark he can win off.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Acapulco Bay, 10th/15, 12/1 --- 12/1

Le Burf, 3rd/10, 5/1 --- 5/1

Nought for one

2011-11-16T21:43:00.005Z

Just the one selection today, in the marathon chase at Hexham.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.40 Hexham Matmata de Tendron 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 PP/Skybet/SportingBet/Boylesports

Matmata De Tendron tried his best for Tony Kelly, up there for a lot of the four mile contest and at spells looking like he was travelling well enough, but he began to tire a fair way from home and finished in the end beaten by around 20 lengths back in 6th, after starting at 7/1.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Matmata De Tendron, 6th/10, 9/2 --- 7/1

Limited space available

2011-11-15T19:19:00.003Z

For the first time in more than four months, we have limited space available to join our service.

Our prices are as follows:

One month: £22.50

Three months: £65 (£21.66 per month)

Six months: £115 (£19.17 per month)

Twelve months: £205 (£17.08 per month)

If you would like to receive text alerts in addition to email, that will cost an extra £2 per month, just to cover our costs.

We don't expect to have our doors open for long, and as soon as we reach our limit we will once again close up shop, to protect prices for existing members.

This year not only do we have an ROI of more than 25%, with profits to date of nearly 160pts, we have also been given an excellent review by the highly respected Secret Betting Club and were also awarded their "Best Newcomer" award.

We fully expect to have another very strong NH season in the coming months so there may be no better time that to join us.

If you have any questions, do please contact us.

All the best,

Sam

PS - if you're wondering how Tuesday went for us - we had no selections today.

Results catch up

2011-11-14T22:11:00.003Z

First of all, many apologies for the lack of regular updates over the last few days. Normal service will now be resumed from now on.

It's been a fairly quiet, yet profitable, last few days.

Let's start last Wednesday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Bangor Incentivise 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Coral

Richard Lee's 8yo went off a 13/2 shot and things happened a bit too quickly for him, and while he stayed on nicely towards the end he was never really going to get close to the front couple, finishing fourth in the end.

We had no selections on Thursday, so onto Friday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Newc Raining Horse 1pt 7-1 general (15-2 SportingBet)

Raining Horse was well backed into 9/2 co-favourite and looked a big player for quite a while, going almost 6/4 in running. But the 9yo hit the wall suddenly and dropped away tamely, to finish well beaten.

On to Saturday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Uttoxeter Mighty Monty 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Lads/Coral 7/1 Hills

2.55 Wetherby Douglas Julian 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/Betfred/Boyles

3.15 Uttoxeter Amazing Star 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Coral/Totesport+others

And this was the good day we were confident we had coming, with a couple of nice winners.

Mighty Monty opened on track at 6/1 but drifted to 8s at post time, and put in a really gutsy performance to win by half a length. He travelled well for much of the race, took it up three out, and saw it out gamely from two strong finishers, great stuff. While beating SP is the target, as we've said many times sometimes the early money is very telling even if there is a late drift, and it can give us an extra bit of profit too thanks to best odds guaranteed.

Next up was Douglas Julian, another drifter, this time to 11/1. Not a similar result though, after pressing the front two for plenty of the race he dropped tamely away. This one's possibly getting back close to a winning mark though.

And then we had Amazing Star, who put in a stellar performance for us at Uttoxeter. He was always travelling really nicely and it was one of those where we could be pretty confident about having the winner a fair way from home, although he did make a mistake at the third last. He won by just over three lengths barely extended, after starting a well supported 7/2.

Onto Sunday and we had a couple of big priced picks:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.25 Fontwell The Clyda Rover 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Bet365 12/1 Hills

12.55 Fontwell Silsula 2pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Lads/VC maybe some 18/1Totesport/Betfred

Both of these were very well backed and both ran respectably for a long time before just fading towards the end.

First up The Clyda Rover, who went off at 5/1, and although he was being cajoled along for a fair while, was up there battling until a couple of flights from home when he faded out of contention. He was certainly trying that's for sure.

Then Silsula, our first 2pt bet for a while and we were pleased to see her continue to be backed right into 7/1. She was trying a big step up in trip for the first time and ran well for a long time, up with the leaders going over the second last fence, trading at around 7/4 in running, but at that point she began to empty out and then she faded on the run in to finish unplaced. Would have been a very good return, but a game effort.

And then today, Monday, we had no selections.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday November 9th 2011:

Incentivise, 4th/11, 5/1 --- 13/2

Thursday November 10th 2011:

No selections

Friday November 11th 2011:

Raining Horse, 7th/9, 7/1 --- 9/2

Saturday November 12th 2011:

Mighty Monty, 1st/13, 13/2 --- 8/1

Douglas Julian, 7th/11, 8/1 --- 11/1

Amazing Star, 1st/11, 11/2 --- 7/2

Sunday November 13th 2011:

The Clyda Rover, 4th/10, 11/1 --- 5/1

Silsula, 5th/6, 14/1 --- 7/1

Monday November 14th 2011:

No selections

So all in all, a 7.5pt profit from our last update, leaving the month just a shade down at -1.5pts. We've picked up 13.5pts of profit in the last seven days, from just nine selections, which shows how quickly things can spin around once we get a result or two. Hopefully we can push on from here and have another profitable week.

Quiet few days

2011-11-11T20:59:00.004Z

Not a lot to report from the last three days!

On Wednesday we had one runner, which came fourth, no selections yesterday, and then today we had another unplaced.

We'll bring a full update soon, most likely on Monday, where we'll look back at these two selections, and those from the weekend too.

Have a good weekend!

Altogether better

2011-11-08T20:21:00.002Z

A much better day today, a gutsy 7/1 winner and our other finished second after halving in price from 8/1 to 4/1.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Sedgefield Gavroche Gaugain 1pt 7/1 generally

3.20 Huntingdon Break The Chain 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 15/2 Bet365 8/1 Lads/Boyle/Betfred &others

Gavroche Gaugain, who went off at 11/2, was prominent for much of the contest and took it up a couple of fences from home. He needed a good jump at the end, got it, and ran on really gamely to land the spoils by half a length. The second, Night In Milan looked a big threat and traded odds on, but couldn't get there.

Next up we had Break The Chain and with the 8/1 holding up for a good while it was pleasing to see the selection go off at 4s. He was up there for much of the race but wasn't able to live with the winner in the end, going down by six lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Gavroche Gaugain, 1st/8, 7/1 --- 11/2

Break The Chain, 2nd/8, 8/1 --- 4/1

So a shame we couldn't quite get the double up, but a decent day and we look forward to tomorrow.

More placed but..

2011-11-07T16:20:00.004Z

We had a couple more placed today but that's no good for us win-only backers, so a poor day, with four points lost. Not a lot of consolation around price-wise either, which is particularly disappointing.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.20 Carlisle Inga Bird 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Coral/Bet365/SportingBet

2.05 Hereford Changing Lanes 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Coral/Totesport/Betfred

3.30 Carlisle Teenando 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads/Bet365/Stan James

4.15 Hereford Priest Field 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Bet365/Coral+others

Inga Bird stayed on well into second but was never going to catch the winner, after starting at 13/2.

Changing Lanes, who started at 13/2, ran really poorly, just never travelling and out of the race from quite some way out.

Teenando put in a game effort, up there throughout, he didn't have the toe to go with the winner but stayed on well for third, after going off at 9/1.

Priest Field led for a fair part of the contest, but was readily passed by the principles to cap a frustrating afternoon. He started at 7/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Inga Bird, 2nd/11, 9/2 --- 13/2

Changing Lanes, PU/11, 7/1 --- 13/2

Teenando, 3rd/8, 10/1 --- 9/1

Priest Field, 9th/10, 5/1 --- 7/1

8 of our 15 win selections have been placed this month, which is no consolation at all for those members who follow us in backing win-only (apart from perhaps a bit of a run for our money).

A tough start to the month but things can turn very quickly and we look forward for a nice return or two soon.

Results catch up

2011-11-07T09:12:00.005Z

It's proving a frustrating November so far results-wise, but at least from a price point of view it's been a decent start to the month.

Let's look back at the last three days, starting on Friday:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.40 Hexham Mighty Magnus 1pt 6/1 generally plus 13/2 Hills/Coral/Boyle/ 7/1 Skybet/Totesport/Betfred

Mighty Magnus went off at 5/1 and was up there for a long time, before fading from around two out to finish well behind.

Then on Saturday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.10 Wincanton Point West 1pt 7/1 + generally inc. 15/2 SportingBet 8/1 Totesport/VC/Betfred

2.05 Kelso The Shy Man 1pt 6/1 + generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Totesport/Bluesq 7/1 SportingBet

3.00 Sandown Paintball 1pt 6/1 + generally inc. 13/2 Totesport/Boyle/Betfred 7/1 Lads

Point West went off at 8/1 and was given plenty to do from the back, he was staying on towards the end but was never really going to get there when he fell at the last.

The Shy Man started at 11/2 but never showed up, beaten a long way from home.

Better from Paintball, who was backed into 4/1 and stayed on to be placed although was never going to get close to the easy winner.

So, on to Sunday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Ffos Las No Principles 1pt 7/1 +generally inc. 15/2 Hills 8/1 Bet365/Skybet/Totesport/Betfred

3.25 Market Rasen Beamazed 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 15/2 Totesport/Betfred 8/1 Lads/Skybet/Boyle

4.00 Market Rasen North Stack 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Lads

No Principles was held up right at the back but looked to be going well enough and moved up through the field late on, but just didn't have the out and out pace to really challenge the front couple, finishing 6th but only beaten just over three lengths, after going off at 6/1.

Beamazed was right up there and looked to be going well (touching nearly 5/4 in running) until the winner came up behind and quickened past him a couple of fences from home, finishing second in the end, starting at 15/2 (after opening on course at 11/2)

Then came North Stack, who was another seemingly going along well enough, touching odds in running on his chasing and handicap debut, but was just a bit outpaced close to home, going down in third by five lengths.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 4th November:

Mighty Magnus, 5th/7, 13/2 --- 5/1

Saturday 5th November:

Point West, F/13, 7/1 --- 8/1

The Shy Man, PU/11, 6/1 --- 11/2

Paintball, 3rd/12, 6/1 --- 4/1

Sunday 6th November:

No Principles, 6th/10, 8/1 --- 6/1

Beamazed, 2nd/7, 8/1 --- 15/2

North Stack, 3rd/10, 11/2 ---9/2

So all in all a frustrating collection of results but from a price stats point of view 6 out of 7 went off shorter than we had in the morning so we're happy with that.

In fact 10 out of 11 selections for us this month have started shorter than we had, so from that point of view a strong start to the month, the winners will come along in their own time.

Next Time Out Analysis

2011-11-04T23:27:00.002Z

One of the questions we field on a more regular basis than most is “how do your selections do next time out?” Sure there are some which stand out, a big priced pick which doesn’t do the business for us and then a day or two later scoots home at even bigger odds. But we’ve never before monitored them closely enough to assess whether they’re genuinely worth following blindly.

So now we’ve looked at the next time out performances of each of our selections from this year, up until we went into our two month pause, on August 31^st. The results are quite interesting. There is a danger with this sort of approach that one may be inclined to back fit the results to find an angle which appears to be one which works, so before we approach a number of different angles, let’s look first of all at how each and every selection has done, assuming he or she has raced again, after the horse was a selection for us:

All prices are to BSP so it can probably be assumed that better returns could be had with prices taken earlier in the day.

First of all, of the 552 selections advised by us from January 1^st 2011 to August 31^st, 486 have run at least once since.

Here are the stats backing each and every selections next time out:

Bets: 486

Wins: 71

Strike Rate: 14.61%

Average Odds: 16.75

Average Win Odds: 7.35

Profit/Loss: +13.12pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +2.7%

So a profit, although not a great one! That’s a fantastic starting point though, and one to really work on. Let’s look at a great number of different variables now which may improve returns for us.

First of all, let’s strike out all horses which drifted from the price we advised in the morning.

Bets: 366

Wins: 51

Strike Rate: 15.03%

Average Odds: 16.17

Average Win Odds: 7.60

Profit/Loss: +33.85pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +9.25%

So a better result, that’s quite interesting, as one of the theories about why a horse may drift on track late on is that connections have seen the price gone and have waited for another day, but this shows that perhaps isn’t generally the case.

The following couple of tables will focus on these 366 horses which didn’t drift from the price advised by us in the morning.

First of all, backing all horses which start next time at BSP at 8.0 or bigger:

Bets: 218

Wins: 20

Strike Rate: 9.17%

Average Odds: 23.75

Average Win Odds: 14.16

Profit/Loss: +51.98pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +23.84%

So by that we can deduce that backing horses at 7.9 or shorter next time out (from the 366) has actually returned a loss, which shows up like this:

Bets: 151

Wins: 35

Strike Rate: 23.18%

Average Odds: 5.07

Average Win Odds: 3.85

Profit/Loss: -21.13pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -13.99%

Interesting how a strike rate of 23.18%, with winners being fired in relatively often, is readily outgunned by a 9.17% strike rate above. Another example of how we should be patient when dealing with losing runs.

So let’s change tact for a moment, and look at ALL (regardless of drift) horses next time out which didn’t get placed for us (so should go off in theory a bigger price NTO):

Bets: 301

Wins: 35

Strike Rate: 11.63%

Average Odds: 21.05

Average Win Odds: 10.33

Profit/Loss: +44.23pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +14.69%

Not bad at all! So if we see a horse put in a stinker for us, perhaps we should look again next time out despite that.

Let’s run the same theory with the “on course drifters” struck out (leaving us with the 366):

Bets: 223

Wins: 26

Strike Rate: 11.59%

Average Odds: 20.24

Average Win Odds: 10.60

Profit/Loss: +40.02pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +17.95%

So a similar return, but with fewer bets, so a slightly better ROI.

What about those horses which placed for us, how did they do next time, first of all looking at ALL selections:

Bets: 184

Wins: 36

Strike Rate: 19.57%

Average Odds: 9.65

Average Win Odds: 4.45

Profit/Loss: -30.11pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -16.36%

So horses which ran well for us don’t appear to be worth following. What about just the winners?

Bets: 72

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 25%

Average Odds: 10.39

Average Win Odds: 4.73

Profit/Loss: +9.85pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +13.68%

So a profit there, although not a brilliant one. So it appears that those near misses for us (placed but not winning are really dangerous to follow next time out:

Bets: 112

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 16.07%

Average Odds: 9.17

Average Win Odds: 4.16

Profit/Loss: -39.96pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +35.68%

So those near misses for us really appear to cause some damage if they’re continued to be followed (notice the average odds for them is 9.17 compared to 21.08 for those which didn’t place for us).

Let’s look at those last three tables purely looking at the 366 “non drifters”. We should see an improvement.

These horses went off at our advised price or shorter – and were placed for us:

Bets: 143

Wins: 29

Strike Rate: 20.28%

Average Odds: 9.83

Average Win Odds: 4.91

Profit/Loss: -6.17pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -4.31%

So that’s much better than looking at all selections.

What about the 366 non drifters whittled down to just our winners, how do they do next time out?

Bets: 56

Wins: 13

Strike Rate: 23.21%

Average Odds: 12.03

Average Win Odds: 5.67

Profit/Loss: +14.69pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +26.23%

That’s a good ROI, and despite the shorter win odds a decent profit/loss. So those horses that don’t drift from the advised price and win for us appear good to follow next time out.

For completion let’s leave out those who are placed for us (but don’t win) from the 366:

Bets: 87

Wins: 16

Strike Rate: 18.39%

Average Odds: 8.42

Average Win Odds: 4.30

Profit/Loss: -20.86pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -23.98%

So, so far, we can see that based on the year to date, we’re better off focussing on those horses which don’t drift from our advised price next time out, which are either unplaced for us or win.

This makes sense, in that the winners have shown they can win and perhaps deserve to be followed, and those who are unplaced will naturally most usually go off a decent price next time.

So let’s look at all horses which a) went off shorter or the same as advised and b) either won or were unplaced:

Bets: 278

Wins: 39

Strike Rate: 14.03%

Average Odds: 18.55

Average Win Odds: 8.95

Profit/Loss: +55.71pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +20.04%

That is pretty good, but let’s look again using the same filters, with horses 8.0 or longer at BSP.

Bets: 180

Wins: 19

Strike Rate: 10.56%

Average Odds: 25.77

Average Win Odds: 13.85

Profit/Loss: +70.93pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +39.41%

That is a fantastic ROI, but perhaps we’re missing out on some of the profits of those winners for us going off at a shorter price NTO than 8.0.

Let’s combine horses unplaced for us going out at bigger than 8.0 NTO, with the winners for us going out NTO at whatever price.

First of all, the table of those horses unplaced for us going out bigger than 8.0 NTO:

Bets: 155

Wins: 15

Strike Rate: 9.68%

Average Odds: 26.56

Average Win Odds: 14.93

Profit/Loss: +58.56pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +37.78%

So combining the above with the “winners for us going out NTO regardless of price” looks like this:

Bets: 211

Wins: 28

Strike Rate: 13.27%

Average Odds: 22.70

Average Win Odds: 10.63

Profit/Loss: +73.25pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +34.72%

Looking at the results, there were numerous big priced seconds, including at 17.29, 19.75, 23.59, 32, 23.37, 35.9, 82.66, 25 and many more, so there really does appear to be something in this. And while we are staunch advocates of win-only betting, each-way returns appear promising. Based on the BSP prices (which we know is an inaccurate way of looking at it given the higher returns of win only bets in relation, but is useful nonetheless), a 100pt bank, betting 1pt e/w on each selection, turned into 280.92pts, an ROI of +42.87% - with a placed strike rate of 34.12%.

It’s possibly to boost results further by striking out very long odd horses (those priced at 50+, for example are 0/20, but of course this is a small sample and we would only need one of these going in at some point in next 29 efforts to turn this into a profit).

So what to do with this evidence? There certainly appears to be something in it, and of course profits could be boosted substantially if we were to take advantage of early prices and not rely on BSP. This would be an assumption on our behalf though; we do not have early price evidence NTO to go on to hand.

In the short term, we will do exactly what we have done with the 2011 results, and go through our 2010 selections next time outs, and take it from there. It will take a while to sift through them all, but if results are anything like this year then there certainly seems potential to boost our profits (and indirectly gain compensation for those horses which run unplaced for us in our original method!).

We have a handful of places available to join our service at the moment, so if you would like to become a member do contact us and we'll be back in touch with you as quickly as possible.

Quiet day

2011-11-03T22:57:00.003Z

Just the one selection today, which after racing prominently for a good while, dropped away.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.30 Musselburgh Ocarina 1pt 9/1 Lads/Bet365/Coral/Skybet/Betfred/SportingBet

We're marking up the selection as an 8/1 shot although hopefully plenty of our members got the 9s that was available for a few minutes in various places after the email was delivered. Just to reiterate, for the benefit of new members, we do this to hopefully make sure people have confidence that our prices are accurate and obtainable. As it was the horse went off at 7/1 so value was still just about had, although we didn't really get much of a run for our money, with Ocarina up there in the front two for the first circuit or so before dropping tamely away.

Summary of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Ocarina, 9th/10, 8/1 --- 7/1

Hitting the post

2011-11-02T22:50:00.002Z

3/3 so far this month for our selections in shortening up nicely, 3/3 getting placed, sadly 0/3 finishing in front, but it'll come.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.05 Warw Crazy Bold 1pt 7-1 general (15-2 VCBet)

4.10 Nott Brockfield 1pt 7-1 Lads,PP,VC Bet, 15-2 W Hill,8-1 Boyle, Coral

Crazy Bold went off a well supported 9/2 shot and ran well, staying on nicely in the end after being a tad outpaced, but sadly eight lengths behind the winner.

Brockfield put in a very game effort over a C&D he enjoys and with conditions to suit. Out in front going into the final furlong or so, he was just outstayed in the end, after going as short as 1.40 in running. He went off a very nicely backed 7/2.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Crazy Bold, 3rd/10, 7/1 --- 9/2

Brockfield, 2nd/13, 7/1 --- 7/2

Back in action!

2011-11-01T21:02:00.001Z

So we're off and running again then, and had just the one selection, at Exeter;

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.50 Exeter Rockabilly 1pt 11/2 Lads/Stan James/Skybet 6/1 Boyle/Totesport/Betfred

Rockabilly was making his handicap chasing debut for Nigel Twiston Davies' yard and made a big blunder at the very first fence that Sam TD did well to survive. That lost him around six lengths or so and plenty of momentum but he gradually worked back into the race and finished pretty well to come third, just behind the second though a fair way behind the winner. Not a great result, but we comfortably beat the SP of 3/1.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP)

Rockabilly, 3rd/15, 11/2 --- 3/1

Also, just to finish for now, we wrote before the break about whether it would have been profitable to blindly follow our selections next time out.

We will go into plenty of detail on this soon, but in 2011 the bottom line is that the answer is yes. Quite an interesting development , and watch this space for further analysis!

One day to go!

2011-10-31T21:29:00.001Z

So we have one more day to go until our season gets underway again - to say we can't wait to get cracking again is a massive understatement!

Our two month break seems to have gone quickly, and it's certainly been a turbulent time for the horse racing industry with all the controversy surrounding the use of the whip and jockey punishments.

But there has also been some great moments too of course, with Frankel’s performance at Ascot one of them. And what about Danedream’s demolition of the Arc field.

Of course for us the winter will feature, for the most part, less glamorous prospects, but we won’t stop for a moment to try to continue to deliver good returns for all our members.

We look forward to doing our level best to finishing 2011 strongly, and delivering more 20%+ ROI profits again in 2012.

Roll on tomorrow!

SBC Best Newcomer Award

2011-10-18T22:19:00.002+01:00

We're delighted to say we have been won the "Best Newcomer Award" in the Secret Betting Club Summer Racing Awards.

A really big achievement considering the depth of competition, and we're really delighted and proud.

While it's been nice having a bit of a break these last few weeks we're starting to really itch for the action to begin again. November 1st.. not too long now.

Please do let us know if you wish to add your name to our waiting list to join. It looks possible that we're going to have a few spaces come up soon, so do let us know you're interested and we'll be in touch as soon as a place becomes available. Contact us by heading here.

August Analysis

2011-09-03T22:36:00.006+01:00

Our worst month since June 2010, they'll come along every now and then, but August wasn't pleasant. Not just in the returns, but just the sheer number of horses seemingly running below par. All very annoying, and not what you'd like going into a two month break. Let's have a look at the numbers.

Bets: 57

Wins: 3 (5.26%)

2nds: 6 (9.5%)

3rds: 5 (8.77%)

Placed total: 14 (24.56%)

Average odds taken: 7.3/1

Average SP: 6.15/1

Average win odds: 6.41/1

Profit/Loss: -38.78pts

Return On Investment: -63.57%

It goes without saying we'd rather have had more winners, but our placed total is also certainly down on where we'd like to have been as well. A funny old month, but we continued to beat SP with the great majority of our selections, on average by 1.15pts and it's this stat which will see us right in the long run.

Roll on November!

On our break

2011-09-02T10:58:00.002+01:00

We're currently on our two month break, but will be back soon with our August review!

Even though August has been tough to us, it's been a great 2011 all told, and we can't wait to get going again in November.

Tough going

2011-08-30T21:12:00.005+01:00

Really tough going this month.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Warwick Downhill Skier 1pt 8/1 generally 9/1 Stan James

2.35 Huntingdon Ebony Diamond 1pt 9/2 generally 5/1 Bet365/VC

4.50 Epsom Licence To Till 1pt 5/1 generally

Downhill Skier would have had to sprout wings to win from the position he found himself in as he turned for home and while he stayed on he had no chance of getting there, after going off at 7/1.

Ebony Diamond (SP 3/1) was being niggled along in rear before suddenly getting back on the bridle and looking a threat about three out. Once that flight was jumped he immediately lost position again though and ended up well beaten.

Then came License To Till, another we got the price about, with the selection going off at 11/4. It counted for little in this particular instance though with Mark Johnston's 4yo fading most disappointingly out of contention.

Today we were back to Epsom for a couple of selections:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.50 Epsom Bells O Peover 1pt 9-2+ inc 5s Lads, Betfred, Hills

4.55 Epsom Penchesco 1pt 9-2gen, inc 5-1 S James, Sky, B365

The Bells O Peover was backed right into 3/1 at the off and put in a decent performance, trying to win from the front. It was never going to be easy but he battled away well with Wily Fox and won that duel, but was picked off by two who came from behind.

Nothing much to be said for Penchesco who went off at 6/1 and never for a moment like getting competitive.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 29th August 2011:

Downhill Skier, 6th/12, 8/1 --- 7/1

Ebony Diamond, 8th/8, 5/1 --- 3/1

License To Till, 8th/9, 5/1 --- 11/4

Tuesday 30th August 2011:

The Bells O Peover, 3rd/9, 5/1 --- 3/1

Penchesco, 6th/7, 5/1 --- 6/1

So not a lot to be said really, at least without sounding like a stuck record! One more day to go in August and then our two month break begins, which I think might do us all a bit of good in terms of recharging the batteries!

Sunday night update

2011-08-28T20:07:00.003+01:00

A fairly quiet last three days of action, but a profit to report, with Waahej doing the business at Windsor yesterday afternoon in good style.

We had the one selection on Friday, at a big price:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.25 Ffos Las Cold Mountain 2pt 20/1 gen+ inc. 25/1 Lads/Coral/SportingBet

The 25/1 held up for quite a while, and obviously it would have been a cracking return. Seamus Mullins' 9yo was a bit outpaced and he looked unlikely to win from a fair way out, but it was good to see Jimmy Derham keeping him going all the way to the line, almost snatching third. He started at 16/1.

On Saturday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.35 Beverley Mr Rainbow 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Hills/SportingBet

5.05 Windsor Waahej 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2Skybet/StanJames/SportingBet 6/1 Lads

Mr Rainbow almost gave us a terrific start to the day, staying on in the rain all the way to the line, with the post coming just a few yards too soon, after he started at 8/1.

Waahej was a good winner for us, although we were hit by an annoying 10p R4. Still, a winners a winner and he could be called that some way from home, good value for his 3/4 length victory.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.55 Goodwood Xclaim 1pt 5/1 Lads/Bet365/SportingBet/VC/Bluesq

Xclaim was nicely backed this morning but a bit weak later on, drifiting to 13/2 on his handicap debut. He was outpaced early on and did his best to get involved but it all happened a bit quickly. In the end he wasn't beaten far though, and could be one to keep an eye on.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised and SP):

Friday 26th August 2011:

Cold Mountain, 4th/8, 25/1 --- 16/1

Saturday 27th August 2011:

Mr Rainbow, 2nd/13, 8/1 --- 8/1

Waahej, 1st/6, 5.4/1(after r4) --- 11/4

Sunday 28th August 2011:

Xclaim, 6th/8, 5/1 --- 13/2

So we're left to reflect a little on what may have been had Mr Rainbow got up, but at least a profit locked in this weekend. Roll on what could be a busy day tomorrow!

It's a funny thing

2011-08-25T19:56:00.002+01:00

Calendar months don't really mean a jot in the grand scheme of things. Over the course of 1000 bets plus, what does it matter how the winners are spread out, whether we get a flood of winners here, and a baron run there.

But when you're in a calendar month where things just aren't falling for you, it somehow does seem to matter. I suppose it's just good psychologically when things tick over nicely, a steady upward curve and all very relaxed.

We're 163.32pts up for 2011, running at just above +27%ROI, which we're really pleased about. But this month things are tough, it's just falling that way, it'll happen, but I certainly know it's not easy to stay positive and think long term the whole time when things are going against us.

I've built up a huge resistance to losing runs, but that's been built by backing our selections for years. I know things will sometimes spectacularly go our way (and we must enjoy those days, for all it's important to keep our feet on the ground), and I know sometimes things will go against us.

But what I'm very grateful for during these last few difficult weeks is how our members, however frustrated they may be, particularly those who've joined us recently, have kept their frustations to themselves (at least to us). It would be so easy to fire off angry emails, infuriated and concerned by current results, and I wouldn't blame them. But it hasn't been that way, and for that we say thank you.

Not that we'd mind getting grief of course, we would soak it up and keep on with our task, trying to reassure the concerned as best we can. But not having those angry notes to deal with has been, for us, one of the few positives of these last few weeks. We can conclude that our members are as stoic as us. Always thinking of the big picture and the long term goal, and treating poor runs for what they are, an inevitable jot on an otherwise relentless pursuit of profit, and that is extremely pleasing.

Anyway today we had another reminder of when the racing gods are out to get you, they're out to get you.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Carlisle Captain Scooby 1pt 6/1 Coral/Totesport/PP/Boyle/Betfred/SportingBet

4.20 Ffos Las Am I Blue 1pt 6/1 generally 13/2 PP/VC 7/1 Lads/Coral

4.40 Carlisle Scottish Lake 1pt 9/2 generally 5/1 VC/Boyle

Captain Scooby was supported down to an SP of 9/2 and ran a luckless race. Blocked twice in running he finally broke clear to be a fast finishing fourth. But that wasn't the thing that got to us, nope, it was the fact that one of selections yesterday, Invincible Force, won the race at a ridiculous 18/1, virtually unbacked all day. It never rains bu.. It's not the first time we've seen this happen just lately, one of our selections winning at big prices soon after advised by us. We're going to investigate, look back at an enormous number of races and examine whether we can find a profitable line somewhere. Watch this space.

Am I Blue led and went well for a while but was outpaced when things got serious, after starting at 11/2.

And then Scottish Lake put in a good performance, staying on well to finish second, but a fair way behind the well handicapped winner who had flown, after starting at 9/2.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Captain Scooby, 4th/10, 6/1 --- 9/2

Am I Blue, 4th/7, 7/1 --- 11/2

Scottish Lake, 2nd/11, 9/2 --- 9/2

So, on to tomorrow!

Update

2011-08-24T23:12:00.004+01:00

We've updated the results on the website again tonight, as we like to do at least every few days. This month has not been pretty so far that's for sure.

So today we had three selections, one a non runner, and the other not placing, although that only tells part of the story.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.20 Catterick Gowanharry 1pt 5/1 generally 6/1 Lads/Totesport/Betfred/Sportingbet

4.20 Catterick Invincible Force 1pt 15/2+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Totesport/VC/Coral and others

4.40 Worcester Mix N Match 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Hills/Bet365 8/1 Betfred

Gowanharry was very well backed this morning, and the 6/1 wasn't around for long. Certainly there is no question that plenty was expected, the money well and truly down for this daughter of Choisir, she went off at 4/1. If only she'd started well.. Totally missing the break she was well behind and Phillip Makin gave up there and then, as she coasted past rivals to finish a never nearer fifth. One to look out for, although the secret's out now of course.

Then came Invincible Force who was a bit disappointing, after starting at 7/1, not really having the run of the race.

Mix N Match continued to be nicely backed before being made a non-runner at about 1 o'clock.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Gowanharry, 5th/12, 5/1 --- 4/1

Invincible Force, 6th/11, 8/1 --- 7/1

Mix N Match NR

It'd be wrong to say that we've had bad luck to blame for our poor results this month, but certainly Gowanharry was one that may well have got away.

It happens of course, so roll on tomorrow!

Waiting for the turn

2011-08-23T21:49:00.002+01:00

A fairly quiet last couple of days, with three selections.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

7.50 Windsor The Cayterers 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Bet365 7/1 Coral 15/2 Lads

The Cayterers ran well, held up at the back, a long way behind the leaders, when he was asked to quicken to win the race he didn't quite find much, but then he stayed on nicely to snatch third in the end, after starting at 8/1.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.45 Sedgefield Dream Risk 1pt 8/1 gen 9/1Boyle/StanJames

7.50 Yarmouth Toballa 1pt 15/2 Hills 8/1 Bet365/Totesport/VC/Betfred

Dream Risk (SP 15/2) drifted but was then well backed again close to the off, but never looked like getting in it, a disappointing display.

Toballa also didn't really look like winning, she was in touch but when asked to quicken didn't find much and had to be content with 5th, after starting at 13/2.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Monday 22nd August 2011

The Cayterers, 3rd/12, 15/2 --- 8/1

Tuesday 23rd August 2011

Dream Risk, 10th/11, 8/1 --- 15/2

Toballa, 5th/10, 8/1 --- 13/2

So we're still waiting for that bounce back to big profits. Not long now until we take our two month break, it'd be nice if it happened before the end of August. If not, no problem, we'll wait our turn and look forward to November.

Sunday catch up

2011-08-21T22:41:00.005+01:00

Unfortunately we haven't been able to build on a nice winner last Thursday, tough going this month that's for sure, but there's still more than enough time to end August well.

Let's start on Friday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.15 York Strictly Silver 2pt 16/1 generally and 20/1 Lads/Totesport/Betfred 22/1SportingBet

4.40 Bangor Cullahill 1pt 6/1 generally 13/2 Skybet/StanJames

5.00 Sandown Blue Destination 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Totesport/Betfred

Strictly Silver was nicely backed down to around 12/1 in most places but drifted on course and started at 20/1. Slightly slowly away, he stumbled around the bend, and looked a bit green too, he tried to pick up but was never getting anywhere near the principles, with his stable mate finishing second. There was a lot of early support for this colt around and he might just be one to keep an eye on.

At Bangor, Cullahill ran well for a long time, after starting at 6/1, trading at odds on at one stage, but his challenge flattened out a bit and he could only finish third, decent effort though.

Then we went mighty close to a return with Blue Destination, who battled on really gamely in the final furlong after looking outpaced for a few strides, he would likely have got there in another 25yds, but it wasn't to be and we lost out by a head.

So onto this weekend, and pretty quiet for us with just a couple of selections.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.45 Chester Viva Ronaldo 1pt 6/1 generally 13/2 Coral

Viva Ronaldo met a little trouble in running which didn't help, but was never really looking like continuing his good Chester record, after going off at 6/1.

And then today we had

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.00 Newton Abbot Mamlook 1pt 5/1 bet365/Totesport/Boyle/Betfred/Bluesq 11/2 Stan James

Mamlook was well supported for Newton Abbot's feature race, and like Cullahill ran well for a long time, trading at around 6/4 at one point, after going off at 3/1. But he didn't seem to stay the trip and disappointingly faded before the end to finish out of the places.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Friday 19th August 2011:

Strictly Silver, 11th/17, 20/1 --- 20/1

Cullahill, 3rd/9, 6/1 --- 6/1

Blue Destination 2nd/11, 11/2 --- 7/2

Saturday 20th August 2011:

Viva Ronaldo, 10th/15, 6/1 --- 6/1

Sunday 21st August 2011:

Mamlook, 6th/14, 5/1 --- 3/1

So here's to the new week, looking forward to seeing what it brings. We ended August 2010 very strongly, and it would be lovely if it could happen again this year!

That's more like it!

2011-08-18T19:47:00.007+01:00

So our losing run comes to an end! A lovely 10/1 winner at Epsom tonight has hopefully begun the turn around for August in earnest and we can push on from here.

Our only other runner today put in a decent showing too, but it wasn't to be with that one.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Stratford Farleigh House 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Totesport/Betfred

6.45 Epsom Weapon Of Choice 1pt 10/1 generally 11/1 Hills 12/1 Totesport/Betfred

Farleigh House ran pretty well, trading at shorter than 6/4 as he closed on the long time leader, after starting at 9/2, but his efforts to close the gap left him short of stamina near the end and he had to settle for third.

Weapon Of Choice was available at 12/1 with Stan James for around an hour after our email was sent out and hopefully plenty of members were able to take advantage. They're on our list of bookies odds we don't count though so we're marking up David Simcock's 3yo as a 10/1 shot for us. We still got the price as he went off at 8/1, and put in a terrific display, always going nicely and then doing well from the front to hold off a strong challenge from the second.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Farleigh House, 3rd/7, 11/2 --- 9/2

Weapon Of Choice, 1st/6, 10/1 --- 8/1

So, it's nice to have that winning feeling again, it's been a while. We're on a run of 12 winners from our last 100 selections which is around three wins away from what we'd expect. Hopefully we're due a little correction back upwards to get ourselves back into profit for August. We'll see!

On to tomorrow.

Not pretty

2011-08-17T18:02:00.006+01:00

Over the course of a year, we'll have some brilliant days, many average days, and some pretty horrible days. Today was sadly one of the later. Seven points dropped, and a collection of poor performances.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.20 Nott Lees Anthem 1pt 9-2 general, 5-1 Coral, B365

3.15 Carl Captain Scooby 1pt 11-2 +, incl 6-1 Lads, Betfred, Coral, Tote

3.50 Carl Breezolini 1pt 7-1 general, 17-2 VC

4.05 Nott Rockweiller 1pt 5-1 + general, 7-1 B365, W Hill, Lads

5.05 Heref Hectors House 2Pts 12-1 general, 14-1W Hill, VC, Sky, Boyle

5.30 Carl Spahi 1pt 8-1 general, 9s W Hill, B365, S James

It all started with Lees Anthem, who went off a 9/2 shot and was scrubbed along early to try to get close to the pace. He then faded tamely out of contention to make it a poor start to the day.

Captain Scooby didn't perform much better, going off at 8/1 and ending well beaten.

Breezolini's price drifted before being she was supported again, although she still went off a 10/1 shot. Held up well off the pace she started to make up ground all too late and ended up coasting home in midfield.

Rockweiller was next and another who finished well down, although at least we got the price this time, with Steve Gollings' 4yo going off a 9/2 shot. He was there or thereabouts two furlongs from home but ended up being eased home.

We then looked to our 2pt selection to give the day a much needed lift. We got the price here, with Hector's House going off at 9/1. He was a little outpaced to begin with and had to be content with sitting at the back. By the time he'd moved up through the field the front two had scooted clear and we had to be content with fourth.

And so we were left with Spahi, who went off a nicely backed 11/2. His rider gave the leaders a huge lead, but it looked for a moment like he was going to come with a winning run as he improved into the picture. Not to be though, with the selection's effort petering out.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Lees Anthem, 8th/8, 5/1 --- 9/2

Captain Scooby, 6th/9, 6/1 --- 8/1

Breezolini, 6th/9, 7/1 --- 10/1

Rockweiller, 12th/15, 7/1 --- 9/2

Hector's House, 4th/8, 14/1 --- 9/1

Spahi, 5th/10, 9/1 --- 5/1

It's annoying to have to say it, but its runs like this which remind us of the importance of solid staking plans. Working on a strike rate of around 15% will statistically occasionally throw up losing runs of 40 plus, we're still some way off that, but it does unfortunately go with the territory. All we can say to those of our newer members who are feeling a bit beaten up by it all, please try to think of the big picture, we'll get it back and more, of that we're absolutely sure.

Not a lot to report

2011-08-16T23:21:00.003+01:00

Not a great deal to report with just a couple of runners over the last two days.

It feels like it, generally speaking, has been a slow run recently with few selections. Funny how it just happens sometimes like this, things could just as easily burst into life tomorrow and we suddenly have a flood of runners.

Yesterday we were left a tad frustrated with a non-runner, and then a very below par performance by our only other selection:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.45 Thirsk Uncle Bryn 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 VC/Betfred/Totesports 14/1 Lads

7.10 Windsor Cloud Illusions 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Bet365/Boyles 8/1 Lads

Ladbrokes held Uncle Bryn's price at 14/1 for a good amount of time but cut to 10/1 just before we take our settled prices ten minutes after selections are put out, so we would have marked him down as 10/1. He was around a 9/2 shot when he was declared a non runner.

So it was all on Cloud Illusions. He was a bit awkward for Fallon leaving the stalls and in the early stages of the race, being snatched up as he was held up out the back. He then dropped well away, tailed off, not good. He went off at 7/1.

Today just the one for us:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.15 Musselburgh Here Now and Why 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Hills/Boyles/SportingBet

Hills held up at 5/1, and then layers got stuck on on the exchanges, pushing Here Now And Why's price out to open on course at 6/1. Again he was backed though, into 9/2 at SP. He came with a strong looking run on this step up to 7furlongs, but whether it was the soft ground, or the extra furlong, the run petered out and he was well beaten.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 15th August 2011

Uncle Bryn NR

Cloud Iluisions, 9th/9, 7/1---7/1

Tuesday 16th August 2011

Here Now And Why, 7th/10, 5/1 --- 9/2

Just over half the month gone, a frustrating August so far for sure, but plenty of time left to spin things around.

Consolations

2011-08-14T21:44:00.005+01:00

Well if we continue to back 4/1 shots at 6/1, and 3/1 shots at 10/1 and 5/1 respectively we'll do very well going forward. There'll be ups and downs but that getting that value will see us through.

Sadly though this weekend we didn't see any of our three hit the target, although we had a decent second this afternoon.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.40 Newmarket Rawaafed 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Paddy Power 6/1 VC/Skybet

5.45 Ripon Saqil 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 7/1 lads/Coral/Boylesports 15/2Totesp/Betfred

7.50 Market Rasen Seven Stars 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Lads/Tote/Betfred

Rawaafed was supported down to 4/1 at the offer for his maiden at Newmarket, and he ran a promising race, always there or thereabouts he showed a good deal of speed but didn't have the finishing kick we needed, and he came a fairly close up fourth.

Saqil was a non-runner.

Seven Stars was the subject of a great deal of support on his return to hurdles after more than a year out. There would have been a small r4 on any returns, but we had some cracking value with the selection going off at 3/1. Sadly though things didn't go to plan. A but outpaced early on, he didn't jump fluently and soon found himself well off the pace.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.00 Pontefract Simple Jim 1pt 5/1 generally

Simple Jim ran well, after going off at 3/1. Held a little way of the pace he came with a rattling late run but the winner, well ridden by Jimmy Fortune, had flown and we never really going to get there.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 13th August 2011

Rawaafed, 4th/7, 6/1 --- 4/1

Saqil NR

Seven Stars, 11th/11, 10/1 --- 3/1

Sunday 14th August 2011

Simple Jim, 2nd/16, 5/1 --- 3/1

So, at least the consolation of value (yes that word again) was had this weekend, but the fact remains that August hasn't been kind to us so far in terms of results. Let's hope we get our rewards sooner rather than later.

Fun!

2011-08-12T23:01:00.005+01:00

Well I can think of times when I've had more fun writing these updates on results that's for sure!

But that's the way it goes sometimes, we just keep going and look forward to things turning.

Nothing doing from our last three selections over the last couple of days, and August continues to stutter along.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40 Salisbury Amistress 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Bet365/Betfred/Tote/PaddyPower/Bluesq

Amistress was nicely supported into 7/2 at the off, although for much of the race it seemed she wasn't really travelling. Eventually though she began to pick up and from the rear was staying on quite nicely when she was checked once, and then quite severely hampered as she tried to get there. While she would have gone closer, it's probably unlikely she would have got near the winner.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Newcastle Desert Creek 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Hills/Bluesq

4.30 Newcastle Big Slick 1pt 5/1 generally

Desert Creek was very well backed this morning but drifted on course to 11/2 after opening at 7/2. He had a troubled time of it in the stalls, throwing his head around with a blindfold on, and then Adrian Nicholls was slow to remove it once the gates opened. So he dwelt, lost a fair bit of ground at the start and was never really in the race thereafter.

No such obvious excuse for Big Slick, who went off a solid 4/1 shot, but just never travelled at all, weakening a fair way from home and then eased to a virtual canter for the last furlong. Surely a lot better was expected.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Thursday 11th August 2011:

Amistress, 6th/11, 9/2 --- 7/2

Friday 12th August 2011:

Desert Creek, 6th/8, 5/1 --- 11/2

Big Slick, 9th/9, 5/1 --- 4/1

On to tomorrow!

Not happening

2011-08-10T17:49:00.005+01:00

Things just aren't happening for us at the moment.

Today we had a couple go for us:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.15 Beverley Crimson Sea 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Lads/Boyles/VC

3.25 Yarmouth Strike A Deal 1pt 13/2generally and. 7/1 Lads

It was quite interesting market activity surrounding Crimson Sea after we posted up the selection. Ladbrokes held on to the 11/1 for a good while but eventually he was backed into 8 or 9/1, before drifting on the exchanges to open on course at 12/1. Again the money came for him and he went off at 9/1 SP. All completely academic in the end as Ben Haslam's 2yo shared the lead at the half way point to completely drop out of contention.

A matter of minutes later we were hoping Strike A Deal would get things going. Again Lads held their price well and we got some reasonable value with the selection going off at 5/1. She ran solo up against the stands rail, and for a moment or two it looked like she had the whole field up against it, trading around evens in running. But the complexion of the race soon changed and she was readily passed, before staying on again near the finish to grab third.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Crimson Sea, 11th/11, 11/1 --- 9/1

Strike A Deal, 3rd/10, 7/1 --- 5/1

So while we got the price today with both of our picks, August continues to frustrate. It must be particularly annoying for those of our newer members without past profits to fall back on, but all we can say is "it'll come" - it always (in our experience) does.

A really busy day tomorrow with six turf meetings, so we'll look forward to doing all we can to get back into the money then!