Will Black Caviar mind "soft" in the description tomorrow?

Not a great deal to report from today, with a disappointing effort from the selection which ran, and the other was a non runner. Of more interest is a report from down under on whether Black Caviar will be inconvenienced at all by the cut in the ground tomorrow. It follows below.

First up a quck look at today's runner, we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

7.00         Newmarket          Sharjah                         1pt                            10/1 Bet365 11/1 12/1 Hills/Coral/PP/BetVictor&others
8.05         Newmarket          Greensward                  1pt                             7/1 generally 8/1 Stan James

Sharjah was nicely backed on his debut, going off at 4/1 (although the short-priced favourite came out with what would have been a 40p r4, so we'll count Sharjah's early price as 7.2/1 for settlement purposes). Either way, r4 or not mattered not as he began struggling all too early in the driving rain and finished well back.

Greensward was a non-runner.

Summary of Result:

Sharjah, 9th/11, 7.2/1 --- 4/1
Greensward NR

Now, one of our subscribers is an Australian who goes by the name of Lucky, who actually runs his own tipping service highlighted through his blog http://lucky-100kchallenge.blogspot.co.uk/.

I asked Lucky whether all the rain we've been having here would hamper Black Caviar's chances tomorrow in any way (although actually the forecast tonight and tomorrow doesn't look so bad now). Anyway, it seems not - this is what he told me:

Sam,

       there is absolutely no worries regarding running on a wet track. I saw her trial here at Cranbourne, in an absolute bog, and she glided thru it. I've heard Moody also say she is very adapt in the wet. Even her race motion is that of a wet tracker. She has never run on a wet track here, because we had about a 6 year drought and rarely did we have wet tracks, aside from winter, but that is when the good horses are out.

       The barrier is also a huge help, Nolan will be able to dictate from there and not be cluttered up. Sources close to the stable reckon Moody has told the owners that she has never been as fit as this run. If that's the case look out. Mind you, they never let her go. One time Nolen sooled her a bit when she had the race well and truly won, and Moody tore strips off him. He's never done it again. If he did what Frankel's jockey did he would be sacked off her.

Interesting stuff, really hope she canters to victory. She's 1/4 tonight, and it'll be interesting to see if she goes off shorter come post time, can't wait to see her in action.

Very nice Venetian

A good day today, thanks to Venetian Lad's easy win at Fontwell. It was a shame we couldn't build on it tonight, partly perhaps because the weather turned so nasty at Fontwell at Ffos Las - with Sunny Spells withdrawn because of the ground after well backed for much of they day.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

4.10         Warwick             Tahnee Mara                  1pt                            6/1+generally 13/2 Hills/Totesport&others 7/1 Coral/BetVictor/SkyBet
5.45         Fontwell               Venetian Lad                 1pt                            6/1+generally inc. 7/1 Totesport/Coral/BetFred
8.30         Fontwell               Guns Of Love                1pt                            4/1 Bet365/PP/BetVictor/Boyles 9/2 SkyBet
9.00         Fontwell               Sunny Spells                  1pt                            5/1+generally inc. 6/1 Totesport/BetFred
9.20         Ffos Las               Bromhead                     1pt                            5/1 Hills/BetVictor/PP/Totesport/Boyles/Skybet

Tahnee Mara went off at 6/1 and never really looked like getting involved.

Not the same can be said for Venetian Lad, who travelled nicely throughout, took it up approaching two out and never looked in any danger as he skipped clear comfortably to win by 15 lengths, fantastic stuff. Lydia Richards' 7yo went off a well backed 7/2 so plenty of confidence well rewarded.

Guns Of Love went off at 6/1 and gradually faded out of things towards the end.

Sunny Spells was withdrawn not long before the off in the 9.00, with the ground being blamed.

It was virtually impossible to see anything in the last at Ffos Las tonight given how gloomy and wet it was, although Bromhead did his best to get himself noticed, bolting off into a big lead which sapped all energy out of him and he was beaten by the time they got to three out. He started at 4/1.

Summary of Results:

Tahnee Mara, 8th/10, 7/1 --- 6/1
Venetian Lad, 1st/10, 7/1 --- 7/2
Guns Of Love, 5th/9, 4/1 --- 6/1
Sunny Spells NR
Bromhead, 5th/7, 5/1 --- 4/1

So a good day and we look forward to seeing if we can follow up tomorrow!

Midweek update

What a great Royal Ascot so far, and how impressive was Frankel. Sensational. No selections for us there yet these last couple of days, and not a great deal to say about our three picks.

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00         Thirsk                  Amazing Blue Sky          1pt                            6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Totesport 7/1 Coral
7.00          Brighton              Smoky Cloud                 1pt                            9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/BlueSq

Amazing Blue Sky was well supported into 4/1 and ran well, but just didn't quite see out the trip, finishing fourth, beaten a couple of lengths.

Smoky Cloud was up there, but weakened out of things coming to the final furlong after going off at 13/2.

On to today and we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

6.15         Worcester             Brunston                        1pt                          10/1+ generally inc. 11/1 Lads 12/1 Bet365

Brunston went off at 12/1, and was struggling a fair way from home, ending up well beaten.

Summary of Results:

20th June 2012

Amazing Blue Sky, 4th/8, 7/1 --- 4/1
Smoky Cloud, 7th/10, 5/1 --- 13/2

21st June 2012

Brunston, 10th/13, 12/1 --- 12/1

On to tomorrow!

Take A Bow Jason Hart

A cracking winner today with Watts Up Son doing the business in grand style at Carlisle.

Let's start our latest look back on Saturday, where we had one selection:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.05         Hexham               Royal Curtsy                  1pt                           13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Hills/Bet365/BetVictor/Totesport&others 15/2 Stan James

Royal Curtsy (15/2 SP) was an excellent 2pt winner for us last month, and for a long time it looked as if she may do the business again as she bowled along nicely in front. But whether it was the heavy ground, longer trip, or maybe a combination of the two she emptied out with a couple of hurdles left and finished well behind in fourth.

We had no selections on Sunday so on to today and we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.45        Carlisle                   Watts Up Son              1pt                          7/1+generally inc. 15/2 BetVictor 8/1 Coral/SkyBet
9.10        Windsor                 Calculated Risk            1pt                          11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Hills/PP

Watts Up Son was given a terrific ride by 7lb claimer Jason Hart. Bounced out of the gates, he was sent off into a good lead and after slowing things down a little as they approached the final bend, he pushed on again and rode all the way to win by more than a length with the result never in much doubt. There were suggestions from some that he was a doubtful stayer, but there was decent support around this morning for this one and connections obviously knew that he would get the 9 1/2 furlongs well, and it paid off, great stuff.

It would have been great had Calculated Risk been able to follow up, but despite being backed into 9/2 at the off, it didn't happen. It was a messy race with Willie Musson's 3yo unbalanced at times, and then short of room for a good while, but ultimately no real excuses and while he was a bit unlucky not to finish a little closer he was never really going to challenge the winner.


Summary of Results:

16th June 2012

Royal Curtsy, 4th/8, 7/1 --- 8/1

17th June 2012

No selections

18th June 2012

Watts Up Son, 1st/11, 7/1 --- 8/1
Calculated Risk, 6th/10, 6/1 --- 9/2

So after a flurry of second placed finishes, good to get one in front again. Roll on Royal Ascot!

Running well

Two more good showings from our last three picks and if we keep up that level of performance we'll get back to the winners' enclosure soon.

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.05        Nottingham           Reginald Claude             1pt                          5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Hills/BetVictor/Totesport/Betfred
5.45        Nottingham           Barachiel                        1pt                          5/1 generally 11/2 Totesport/Betfred

Reginald Claude put in a solid effort, despite drifting to 8/1 at the off. He was always on the premises, and kept on at the end, but couldn't live with the pace of the front three, finishing more than 3 lengths back in fourth.

Barachiel ran well, but just didn't get first run on the eventual winner who grabbed the initiative pushing into a strong lead in a really positive bit of jockeyship by Robert Winston. Ours was the only one in the field to throw down a challenge, but couldn't quite make up the ground going down just over two lengths, well clear of third, after starting at 5/1.

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30         York                    Silver Blaze                   1pt                          7/1+generally inc. 15/2 BetVictor/Boyles/SkyBet

We lost out again to a top ride today, when Silver Blaze was mowed down late on by the Ryan Moore ridden favourite. Silver Blaze ran a cracker, taking things up going into the final furlong, and trading at around 1/3 in running, but Moore's ride Valiant, who was under pressure a long way from home, eventually picked up the pace and finished strongly and Alan Swinbank's 3yo couldn't fend him off.

Thursday 14th June 2012:

Reginald Claude, 4th/10, 11/2 --- 8/1
Barachiel, 2nd/11, 5/1 --- 5/1

Friday 15th June 2012:

Silver Blaze, 2nd/5, 7/1 --- 13/2

It's been a quiet week so far in terms of selections, with just the seven going for us - but they're continuing to run well, with four of them finishing second, and let's hope we can get back on the winning trail again tomorrow!

Wednesday update

No returns today for win-only backers, although we went close at Hamilton tonight.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.20         Haydock              Naseem Alyasmeen        1pt                          5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads&others 6/1 Bet365/Coral/Boyles/StanJames/SportingBet
4.40         Yarmouth             Petrarchan                      1pt                          6/1 generally
7.50         Hamilton               Hail Bold Chief               1pt                          4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Lads/PP 5/1 Hills/Totesport/BetVictor&others

Naseem Alyasmeen went off at 13/2 and for a moment or two looked to be travelling best of all about two out, but she didn't quite see the trip out in the end, finishing fourth.

Petrachan was well backed this morning on his handicap debut up in trip, but a little weak on course, going off at 8/1. He was slowly away and couldn't muster much of an effort, fading out of contention late on.

And then, on to tonight's selection with Hail Bold Chief well backed into 11/4 favourite. He ran well, staying on all the way to the line with the eventual winner, who edged across his path a little as he went by, going down narrowly by half a length.


Summary of Results:

Naseem Alyasmeen, 4th/7, 6/1 --- 13/2
Petrachan, 6th/7, 6/1 --- 8/1
Hail Bold Chief, 2nd/8, 5/1 --- 11/4

Quite annoying to have two second placed finishes this week from our four to run, but still June going well overall.

Patience

A quiet couple of days for us, with just the one selection yesterday, which ran well but finished second.
We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.00         Newton Abbot       R Craig                         1pt                         5/1 Hills/Bet365/Totesport/BetVictor&others  11/2 PP/Boyles/SportingBet

Very well backed in the morning, R Craig drifted a little on course to 13/2, but ran well, staying on better than most in the conditions over the marathon 3m3f trip. Sadly he ran into one just a touch better handicapped in Wilde Ruby, and went down by five lengths.

Summary of Result:

Monday 11th June 2012

R Craig, 2nd/9, 5/1 --- 13/2

It's always a bit frustrating when the selections aren't quite there for us, but we have to maintain our discipline at all times. There'll always be another day, and we look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings.

Golden weekend

A really good weekend, with two winners from our three selections, helping to keep pushing things forward really strongly.

We'll start our latest update looking at Friday, where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.55       Market Rasen         Uncle Brit                     1pt                           9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills/Bet365/BetVictor/SportingBet 11/1 Coral
4.40       Market Rasen         Foot The Bill                1pt                            6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Paddy Power/BetVictor/SkyBet/SportingBet

Uncle Brit was withdrawn, so we just had the one runner, Foot The Bill, who was sent off at 7/1. He jumped poorly and never looked like getting involved.

On to Saturday and masses of racing on, but just the one selection for us.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00         Newmarket          High Jinx                       1pt                           4/1 generally

And what a cracking performance it was, with James Fanshawe's 4yo well supported into 7/2 and stretching five lengths clear of the field with the eventual runner-up and winning the duel by a neck.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00         Worcester            Kiama                            1pt                         6/1 generally 13/2 Skybet
4.30         Worcester            Southway Star               1pt                          11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Skybet/Bluesq 13/2  BetVIctor/Totesport/PP/

Boyles/Betfred

Kiama was a little uneasy on course, going off at 7/1. He stayed on well enough, without ever really looking like troubling the leaders, and lost third close to the line.

Southway Star was given a cracking ride by conditional Michael Nolan, held up out of trouble she came through with his running run and could be called the winner from someway out, lovely! She opened on course at 13/2 and was supported right into 9/2 at the off. Connections obviously confident of a good showing, and so it proved.

Summary of Results:

Friday 8th June 2012
Uncle Brit, NR
Foot The Bill, 5th/9, 13/2 --- 7/1

Saturday 9th June 2012

High Jinx, 1st/15, 4/1 --- 7/2

Sunday 10th June 2012
Kiama, 4th/10, 6/1 --- 7/1
Southway Star, 1st14, 13-2 --- 9/2

June is more than 15pts to the good now, continuing our good form from the end of May. 

Euro 2012 guide, and today's results

Before we get on with a look back at our day, as Euro 2012 kicks off tomorrow, a quick plug for a quite incredible bit of research for the tournament.

We've had contact with Greg Gordon thanks to our reviews and general bits of research we've done for the Secret Betting Club, and he comes across as not only a very decent bloke but also one who really knows his football.

He, together with a couple of others have put together a really comprehensive preview guide for the tournament, full of interesting info, and well worth a look if you're looking forward to the action kicking off.

You can get a free preview download (which includes England info), which is 33 pages long in its own right by clicking the link below.

The full version is more than 250 pages long!

Anyway if you're interested you can take a look here.


On to today's racing, and four points dropped back today, although some creditable efforts. We had:


TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.30 Hamilton Cut The Cackle 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Coral

4.30 Hamilton Dynamic Drive 1pt 8/1 generally 9/1 Stan James

6.35 Wetherby Blake Dean 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Totesport&others 6/1 BetVictor/Boyles

7.45 Wetherby Merrydown 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 BetVictor/SportingBet 13/2 Totesport/Coral/Boyles/Betfred 7/1 Stan James

Cut The Cackle went off at 6/1 and put in a good showing after being a bit slowly away. Racing prominently he was bang there with every chance and stayed on all the way to the line, but didn't quite have the finishing kick of the front two, going down in third beaten less than a length.

Dynamic Drive also drifted a touch, going off at 10/1 and was there in contention when things got serious but dropped away with no excuses.

Blake Dean went off at 6/1 and finished third, losing second close to the line, but a mile behind the well handicapped winner.

Merrydown (11/4) ran well enough, finishing second, staying on late without getting too near the winner. I think we could have done with a stronger pace as Donald McCain's Bunclody was able to set his own tempo, but there we go.

Summary of Results:

Cut The Cackle, 3rd/9, 5/1 --- 6/1
Dynamic Drive, 4th/5, 8/1 --- 10/1
Blake Dean, 3rd/8, 11/2 --- 6/1
Merrydown, 2nd/5, 13/2 --- 11/4

Co-ordinated strike

Another profitable day, thanks to Sahrati's comfortable (in the end) success at Fontwell. There'll be some celebrations tonight after a huge gamble was landed.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00         Fontwell               Sahrati                           1pt                          7/2+generally inc. 4/1 Totesport/Skybet/PP/BetFred/SportingBet
6.40         Ripon                   Archie Stevens              1pt                           8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/Boyles/Betfred
8.40         Ripon                   Kunegunda                    1pt                          5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills/Totesport 6/1 Lads

Sahrati was the subject of massive support this morning, with what seemed a co-ordinated hit on the bookies as prices tumbled everywhere within minutes, much more than could ever be expected from even the most successful tipping line. Ladbrokes, for example, went from 14/1 to 10/3 in a little over 20 minutes. Normally we don't really like to back horses shorter than 5/1, and certainly the overall size of a punt isn't enough on its own for us to get involved, but today it was apparent that this was something a bit different so we felt compelled to get involved, even at what appeared small odds compared to what had been available an hour before. Still, even 4/1 turned out to be cracking value as Michael Blake's 8yo went off at 9/4. In the race itself, he was given a cracking ride by Tom Cannon, asked to push on and go and win the race three out as the trip was a touch on the sharp side, it looked like he could be in trouble as AP on the favourite loomed up alongside. But a mistake from the eventual second two out seemed to knock the stuffing out of him, and our selection powered clear to win by twelve lengths. The way Sahrati stayed on so well all the way to the line it would be churlish to say it wasn't a deserved win, even despite Stravita's mistake.

This evening at Ripon, Archie Stevens completely missed the kick, went right, and had little chance thereafter, after going off at 7/1.

Kunegunda was kept in the stalls for what seemed like an eternity but broke well enough and put in a good display, tucked in on the rail, constantly cramped for space, she made headway two out and for a moment or two looked like she might be able to burst through rivals to win, but it wasn't quite to be and she finished a close up fourth, going down by less than a length, after starting at 6/1.

Summary of Results

Sahrati, 1st/6, 4/1 --- 9/4
Archie Stevens, 8th/11, 9/1 --- 7/1
Kunegunda, 4th/10, 11/2 --- 6/1

Three winners for the month already, from just eleven selections, and 11pts of profit. Let's hope we can keep it going tomorrow.

Pushing On

Regular blog-followers will know that we recently stopped reporting results in detail on the blog. These continued for members, but not so for the wider audience. Change of heart here, we're going to go back to regular blog reporting of results, starting today.


****


Another good day, which is becomming a bit of a theme at the moment, with The Ducking Stool winning in good style in the last at Yarmouth at 10/1 for us.

Not so good yesterday, and we'll start there with our latest update.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.40         Carlisle                 Nemushka                      1pt                        9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/Totesport/BetVictor/Betfred                
4.55         Cartmel                Ben Eva                          1pt                        7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/Hills/Coral/Boyles&others 9/1 SportingBet

Nemushka was quite nicely backed into 4/1 to make up for a troubled run in the Silver Bowl at Handicap, but could just never get competitive.

Ben Eva went off at 8/1 and never looked like landing a blow.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.10         Ffos Las                Amazing Valour              1pt                          7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Boyles 8/1 Bet365/Coral/Totesport/BetFred
6.05         Yarmouth              The Ducking Stool          1pt                          9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads/Bet365/Totesport/Boyles/

Betfrded/StanJames

Amazing Valour set off in the joint-lead, but after a couple of slow jumps he immediately started struggling very badly and soon got pulled up. Presumably something wasn't quite right as there was plenty of market confidence about this one, going off at 5/1 and he should certainly have got further than the 6th in a 3mile contest..

So after three very poor efforts we turned to The Ducking Stool to continue to help things push forward, and she did so really well. She has something of an akward running style and seemed to be a little under pressure to hold her pitch in second as they turned for home, but it soon became apparent that Julia Feilden's 5yo was travelling as well as any and she soon quickened into a good lead, staying on strongly all the way to the line, a couple of lengths clear, after starting at 8/1, great stuff. 

Summary of Results:

4th June 2012

Nemushka, 4th/7, 5/1 --- 4/1
Ben Eva, PU/11, 8/1 --- 8/1

5th June 2012

Amazing Valour, PU/8, 8/1 --- 5/1
The Ducking Stool, 1st/11, 10/1 --- 8/1

In our last 17 bets, we've had five winners with 25pts of profit. Safe to say that it would be good to keep this run going for as long as possible!

May Analysis

A good winner today with our first selection of the month, with Bond Fastric doing the business in speedy style at Beverley for us. One unplaced effort tonight, and a second, leaves the day, and June so far, three points in profit.

It feels like we're beginning to pick up a head of steam, so let's hope we can really kick on now and get the rewards we think we deserve with the value we're constantly, on average, finding.

For now, it's time for our look back at May, which was our best month of the year so far.We finished with +16.57pts of profit to official figures, a return on investment of +22.09%, although many members will have been able to get better returns if they were particularly quick off the mark.

Here are the stats:

Bets: 70
Wins: 11 (15.71%)
2nds: 7 (10%)
3rds: 3 (15.8%)
Placed total: 21 (30%)
Average odds taken: 7.31/1
Average SP: 6.27/1
Average win odds: 6.33/1
Profit/Loss: +16.57pts
Return On Investment: +22.09%

First of all, at 70 bets, it was our most prolific month in terms of bet volume since last July, which is no great surprise given there is so much racing on at the moment, as well as evening racing of course.

Eleven wins is a decent enough tally, ensuring a decent level of profit, and for only the second time in the last eight active months we had more winners than second placed finishes.

We started the month really strongly, with seven wins in our first 30 selections, and things were looking good. Then, bang, right out of the blue, we hit a run of 26 without a win. That brought us back to just a touch under even, and then we finished well, with four wins in our last 14 to ensure we finished with more than 16pts in the bag.

According to mathematical probabilities, (via. The Staking Machine), our longest losing run, from 70 selections, with a strike rate of 15.71% should, in the worst case scenario, be 24.9 - so to hit 26 is quite something!

Still that's what variance can throw at us, and we were able to absorb it well for the month and still end well in profit.

Again we comfortably beat SP with our advised odds (prices taken ten minutes after selection despatch), 7.31/1, compared to 6.27/1, so that was pleasing.

So all in all, a good month, not a month to get over excited by, but it was good to push things forward and hopefully a sign of what's to come over the summer.


We have spaces available in our membership at the moment and for just over £17 a month you can be a part of what we're doing. To do so, head to http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-nowpage/.

Ending with a flourish

What a strange month May's been, we started really well, had a very poor run in the middle, and finished strongly, thanks to four winners in our last 14 picks, including a lovely 6/1 winner last night, and 10/1 return today (although many members would have got 12/1 or 11/1).

Today's came courtesy of Autarch staying on really strongly to win the 3.05 at Brighton, and last night we had an eight length winner in the form of Landaman in the last at Beverley. Great stuff.

It means we're up by 16.57pts in the end, a ROI of 22.09%, our best month of the year so far. Sure it could have been even better had a few other things fallen our way, but we're not complaining and we look forward to June with a spring in our step.

We'll return soon with our full review for May.


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Just as a foot-note today, we thought we'd copy over part of our latest results update which we send to members, looking at more detail about today's winner - in particular the fact he was matched in 1000 in-running:

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Jim Crowley got a terrific tune out of Autarch. One of the first off the bridle, he was seemingly tapped for toe, which is no surprise as Amanda Perrett's 3yo probably wants further, but he stayed on really strongly in the last furlong to win in the last 30 yards to get up by 3/4 length. It didn't look the likeliest of winners a furlong or so from home, but he wasn't completely out of it so it came as quite a shock when a subscriber pointed out he'd been layed at 1000 for £54 in running. Ouch ouch ouch.

It's interesting actually, one of our long-held theories has been that it might be worth putting our selections up at big-prices in-running, with the theory being that a jock on a horse told that he should win, or at least get a place, won't give up as early as some. It turned out to not quite ring true (based on since Jan 1st 2010) last time we looked into it. But that's the second 1000 in-running winner we've had (from just over 1600 selections) so that's now a profitable line.

If you're interested, here's our last one - Stow - back in November 2010 - http://winningafortune.blogspot.co.uk/2010/11/9991-winner.html

And here's another that hit 1000 in running two or three times, before trading at 1.03 (and then losing) - our first selection of this very busy day back in January 2011 - http://winningafortune.blogspot.co.uk/2011/01/calm-after-storm.html

Obviously it's the sort of punt that would suit only the most patient of folk, and it would be achingly annoying to have a winner hit 1000 and actually not get matched because you're down the queue, but still it's quite intriguing nonetheless. Maybe putting up 990 or such would off-set that. 


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Worth a thought or two anyway! If you're a long-term reader and never joined, why not do so today. 

Act Your Shoe Size

Quick one tonight to say well done to Keith Dalgleish and connections of Act Your Shoe Size, who landed a nice gamble for us at Carlisle (7/1), our only selection of the day.

Well backed this morning, she drifted a little during the day before being nibbled back in course to go off at 7s, and she was ridden from the front and held off two fast finishing closers to bravely get up by a head. Cracking stuff!

GTV (aka Got/Get/Getting The Value)

We've not had the best of it since our last update, although we continue to get the value, in the main, and that's the main thing, as our members probably tire of us talking about!

We're in profit for May still, but there's no getting away from the fact that we've had a poor run since Jolly Roger went in for us on 13th May. It's always useful to double check prices stats at times like this. Well, from the 30 selections which have run since then, on only seven occasions has SP been bigger than advised (and that's price taken ten minutes after selections are distributed). In 20 cases we've got better than SP, 3 times the same. We've secured an average of 6.95/1 whereas the SP has been an average of 6.3/1. The prices are scewed somewhat, also by a couple of pretty big drifters, for example Hollinwell 5/1 --- 10/1, Tyup Pompey 8/1 --- 14/1. Without these two we would be looking at 6.98/1 average advised price, to an average SP of 5.9/1

It really is important to know that this value is being secured, if only to help keep a positive mindset! For example if we repeated today's bet, on Hadaj 1000 times, getting 11/2 about a 4/1 shot, we'll be in very good order.

So we look ahead to tomorrow, and beyond for a similar sort of positive value return, but hopefully some financial rewards with actual results. They will come, it'd just be nice for it to happen in an explosive way, starting tomorrow!

Correction coming?

We're enjoying a good run at the moment, with eight winners from our last 40 selections - at an average advised price of 7.54/1 (odds taken ten minutes after selections posted). It means a profit of 25.8pts (+58.3% ROI).

This included today's winner from our only selection, Moretta Blanche (8/1), bravely getting up to win at Ascot after being barged about threading her way through.

We've been talking for too long now about being due a correction after a slow few months. We've hit numerous seconds, and had too many well backed sorts not perform as expected. It's all left things a bit flat. Not losing anything really, but not making the explosive gains we know can come along.

It's interesting looking at our graph of results since Jan 2010, when accompanied with a linear trends line:

So, assuming this trends line is accurate (and this is just a linear Excel trends line with the intercept at 0,0) we can see that we've had times where we've outperformed ourselves but also had times where we've under-performed.

Right now, we're under-performing in comparison to long term trends, so we feel we're due a boost upwards. We're sitting with 288.91pts of profit, when according to the trends line, we should/could in theory be sitting with just over 350pts. Well we can easily go back and find several selections over the last few months which came damn close to giving us these lost 60 or so points.On occasions, too, we have to admit that our staking has been too conservative, so we haven't had the returns from good priced winners that we should have had. This is something which we reminded ourselves just a few days ago, and already it's paid dividends.

Fundamentally, what we know is that when things go for us, they really go for us, so with any luck these next few weeks will see this correction play out!

With that in mind, it might very well be an excellent time to join us, and make the most of our variance righting itself in a positive manner.

Spaces are available at the moment, from just £17/month. Come and join the ride!

Pushing on

Good to report another profitable day, with Mister Hyde (9/2adv) winning at Ffos Las tonight albeit in a fortunate manner.

Well backed all the way down to 5/2 for AP and Jonjo O'Neill on his return to hurdles, he travelled nicely through the race despite awful conditions and tried to extend clear when asked to by McCoy. It looked good, but then Martial Law came out of the pack with a strong looking run, and took things up. It looked like we were fighting a losing battle, when Martial Law came down at the last leaving the selection clear and he had enough in the tank to win by more than two lengths. A pretty lucky winner in the end, but they're there to be jumped as they say!

Things just beginning to turn our way it seems, and despite a few near misses this month, we're nicely in profit for May (+21.57pts +89.88%ROI) . Let's hope the rain clears up so we have fewer abandonments and plenty more opportunities for us to keep it going.

Take a bow Royal Curtsy

A cracking 10/1 2pt winner today in the shape of Royal Curtsy at Fakenham, who put in cracking display to win today's Mares' handicap hurdle at Fakenham. 


She was asked to go and win her race three out and she took a decisive lead which she held on to all the way to the line. She jumped poorly throughout so it's to her great credit she was there with a good lead going over the last, and despite tiring late on she always had enough on her handicap debut. Well done to all connections, great job.

After narrow 2nd placed defeats in recent days at 12/1, 7/1 and 6/1 among others it was about time we got a nice bank boost and we'll be looking for plenty more of the same in the days ahead.

Roll on tomorrow!

April Review

Before we look at the month of April, a quick note about results the last couple of days. We had a good winner yesterday in the form of Meet Me At Dawn at Southwell to follow up Tuesday's success, although today we missed the target with our two selections, (albeit one was backed from 12/1 down to 6/1, so at least the value was there). 

Time, then, for our look back at April, which started well and then had a poor run in the middle before picking up a little again at the end.

We ended the month down by 4.15pts in the end. Not for the first time, if we had set 1pt win singles throughout, we would have outperformed official results. Interestingly while 2012 is so far showing a small loss to official stakes (-8.82pts), we would have been in profit (+14.43pts) if we had kept to 1pt win singles throughout (more if we had staked more heavily on some selections as we may have done, more on that in moment). That's obviously not the idea and staking is something we continue to look at. 

Anyway on to the stats, we had:

Bets: 56
Wins: 6 (10.71%)
2nds: 6 (10.71%)
3rds: 4 (7.14%)
Placed total: 16 (28.57%)
Average odds taken: 8.93/1
Average SP: 8.08/1
Average win odds: 8.72/1
Profit/Loss: -4.15pts
Return On Investment: -7.83%

We had some high points in April, including an 18/1 winner in Oscar Baby. In March we had a 25/1 winner in Son of Flicka. If we had staked these horses more heavily, the entire year would have had a different complexion, although of course it is easy to look at these things with hindsight. Prior to Son Of Flicka, we had had a rough time for quite a while with our big priced selections and frankly we have found it not as easy to stake heavily when things aren't tanking along. We know, though, that it shouldn't make any difference. In a way it's a self fulfilling prophecy - things going well - leading to feeling free to up stakes - leading to bigger profits. Things stuttering a bit - leading to slightly more cautious staking - leading to not making the most of opportunites. Our 0.25pt e/w on Son of Flicka, and 0.5pt win on Oscar Baby resulted in a profit of 16.75pts. If we had staked them as even 1pt wins, we would have had back 43pts. 2pt wins, well we would have been laughing.

Some stats on 12/1+ shots for this year:

Total Bets 31
Total Wins 2
Seconds 5 (at 12/1, 16/1, 14/1, 14/1 and and 12/1)
Thirds 3
Average Price taken: 14.97/1
Average SP 13.21/1
Results to official staking: -11.75pts (-42.07%ROI)
Results to 1pt level staking: +14pts (+45.16%ROI)

If you're interested, since proofing began on Jan 1st 2010, these are how 12/1+shots have been:

Total Bets 164
Total Wins 23
Seconds 18
Thirds 14
Average Price Taken: 14.57/1
Average SP: 12.38/1
Results to official staking: +230.25pts (+105.47%ROI)
Results to 1pt level staking: +192pts (+117.07%ROI) 

Historically we have got this right, and perhaps by talking about it like this it will help us remember this, so we move forward together with greater potential for profit through the rest of the year, and beyond.

Elsewhere, just to sum up our look at April, our win-rate was down on where we want it to be, although our average price of selection was pushing the 9/1 mark which is the highest in our proofed history, which would naturally push the win-rate down a little. We comfortably beat SP again for the 27th month out of 28, but our placed total at less than 30% was below average. Basically a bit of a nothing sort of month in the end, with things just ticking along, no great damage done but pretty frustrating all the same.

With our renewed nerve in place perhaps May will be explosively good. Let's hope so.

Border Lad

A cracking 7/1 winner from our two selections, a cracking way to start May off.


The horse in question, Border Lad in the 2.50 at Exeter, who was very well backed right down to 9/4 at the off and the result was never really in much doubt. Always going the better on his first start for Mark Gillard, he led going to two out, and although a bit untidy at the last was always going to win, which he did by five lengths. Coral kept the 8s for a few minutes, and BlueSq and Stan James (bookies we don't settle prices with) had 15/2 for a while too, so hopefully quite a few of our members got bigger than our official return of 7/1.


And a quick note about our previous post about the England job, well it appears the FA were happy to only speak to one man about the job!! Good luck to Roy Hodgson, although why Harry didn't deserve 30 minutes of their time is pretty perplexing, if only to make it easier for Roy! Hey ho that's the FA for you.