This blog is designed to work alongside the tipping advisory service www.themarketexaminer.co.uk. Horses are selected relating to a strict set of criteria related to betting market moves, following several years of research.
Friday, 15 May 2009
Five today
Good luck to:
Autumn Blades Newmarket 15:35 11/1 will hill
Grissom York 15:45 10/1 coral
Bigalos Star York 16:55 22/1 stan james
Wabbraan Newbury 17:10 10/1 sporting bet
Canadian Danehill Newmarket 17:20 8/1 coral
Stakes are now £2.51 per selection, frustrating that it dropped but we'll be back up there soon. It's very annoying that my staking plan relies on a certain order of results for the bank to get going in a serious way. The level stakes profit still stands at 24.5 pts aproximately, but in my own bank with my own staking plan it's a negative currently. Something not right with that obviously but in the long term I'm sure it'll work out for the best.
Decent end to the day, although returns reduced by damn non-runners.
Here's confirmation
Autumn Blades 4th, 9/1sp
Grissom 12th, 7/1
Bigalos Star, 12th, 25/1
Wabbraan 13th, 13/2
Canadian Danehill, 1st, 9/2
Thursday, 14 May 2009
Five today
Anyway it's good luck to:
Nehaam York 14:40 10/1 will hill
City Dancer York 15:45 5/1 ladbrokes double stake
Seneschal Salisbury 16:35 9/2 coral
Victoria Sponge Newmarket 18:15 7/1 will hill
Prof de LIsle Ludlow 19:40 5/1 sporting bet
Not happening today, with just one return. It's going to be a long old road to my fortune, but it'll happen I'm sure. Value was again had, in good style in some cases.
Here's confirmation:
Nehaam - 10th - 8/1 (stone last - not looking good for Epsom)
City Dancer - 4th - 7/2
Seneschal - 1st - 4/1
Victoria Sponge - 2nd - 5/1
Prof de Lisle - 11th - 11/4
Wednesday, 13 May 2009
Four today (belated)
Managed to get my bets on via betfair today, but three have gone down already.
Fontwell 3.35 Mr Ironman at 8.85
Perth 7.30 Indy Mood at 5.63 (double stake)
Perth 8.00 Solway Bee at 5.4
Now waiting to see how Dualagi gets on in the next at Bath (8.40), on at 7.8 and currently trading at 4.6 so at least the value's been had!
Nope there you go, another second, the jockey gave the selection far too much to do and couldn't get there. These recent seconds are adding up, which is always the hallmark of a horrible run.
Here's full confirmation of today's results, some good value about apart from the first race.
Mr Ironman - PU - 14/1
Indy Mood - 5th - 100/30
Solway Bee - 4th - 11/4
Dualagi - 2nd - 100/30
Tuesday, 12 May 2009
Back with three today
In the end there were three runners, and one winner at around 7/2 through betfair in the evening - so a small profit on the day, will try to update properly later.
Anyway as far as today is concerned there are quite a few close to being selections but these are the chosen three.
It's good luck to:
Corton Charlemagne Warwick 14:50 6/1 bet365
Mambo Spirit Beverley 15:00 8/1 coral
Tae Kwon Do Beverley 16:30 6/1 bet365
A close but no cigar sort of day, with Corton Charlemagne beaten 3/4 length by an 80/1 shot, and then Tae Kwon Do drifting alarmingly before the off before going down narrowly in a photo. The best odds guaranteed would have meant for a very nice return.
Anyway here's confirmation of results
Corton Charlemagne, 2nd, 100/30sp
Mambo Spirit, 5th, 10/1
Tae Kwon Do, 2nd, 11/1
I will be locked in a damn meeting tomorrow morning so no chance of updating here unfortunately, and will actually be doing well just to get my bets on.
Sunday, 10 May 2009
Saturday, 9 May 2009
Four today
Am playing in a golf tournament with a load of friends this weekend so may not be able to update here again until Monday night/Tuesday, but will try.
Anyway today it's good luck to:
Four Miracles Nottingham 14:25 8/1 will hill
Damaniyat Girl Lingfield 15:45 4/1 will hill
Kingswinford Haydock 17:25 12/1 will hill
Baby Rock Warwick 17:55 6/1 stan james
Now - off to make a fool of myself on the first tee! Good luck all.
Quick update before dinner,
No winners today, in fact the runners all seemed to run very poorly today. Will do my best to get my bets on tomorrow, but very little chance of updating here because am teeing off quite early.
As for the golf - played terribly but great day was had. Our pairing were two up with three to play and still managed to lose!
Friday, 8 May 2009
Three today
Good luck to:
Canmoss, Nottingham 15:00, 11/2 bet365 double stake
Wise Choice, Aintree 19:05, 10/1 betfred
Dev, Aintree 19:35, 6/1 boylesports double stake
Thursday, 7 May 2009
Eight today
It's funny, over the course of a few days I wouldn't mind seeing eight losers rack up, but if it happens all on one day it's always a bit tougher to take.
Anyway good luck to:
Jaunty Newton Abbot 15:05 9/2 boylesports DOUBLE STAKE
Fareer Chester 15:15 9/2 sporting bet
Kokkokila Goodwood 15:35 4/1 bet365
Silver Games Goodwood 16:10 DOUBLE STAKE 11/1 Sporting Bet (half amount on), 8/1 Bet365 other half
Mister Benedictine Newton Abbot 16:20 6/1 will hill
Fly With The Stars Newton Abbot 16:55 9/2 bet365
Tarsus Wincanton 18:40 13/2 bet365 DOUBLE STAKE
Kings Revenge Windsor 20:10 4/1 will hill
A decent winner early on looked to set the tone for a decent day but things fell away a fair bit, although still quite a lot of them ran with some credit and some good value about.
Here's confirmation:
Jaunty, 5th, 4/1sp
Fareer, 1st, 7/2
Kokkokila, 5th, 9/4
Silver Games, 4th, 6/1
Mister Benedictine, 3rd, 7/1
Fly With The Stars, 9th, 6/1
Tarsus Wincanton, 3rd, 11/4
Kings Revenge Windsor, 6th, 3/1
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
Six today - and three doubles
Good luck to:
Cane Cat Bath 14:00 5/1 bet365
Minouchka Kelso 14:55 7/2 paddy power - double stake
Braveheart Move Chester 16:00 9/2 will hill - double stake
Cute N You Know It Kelso 16:45 8/1 sporting bet
Gower Bath 16:50 8/1 will hill
King Diamond Huntingdon 19:40 8/1 bet365 - double stake
A good day today, with a couple of double stake winners. A shame about Cute N You Know It because he was going ok up front when falling four or five out, but still the day ends in profit and that's all you can hope for!
Here's confirmation:
Cane Cat 6th, 6/1sp
Minouchka 1st, 11/4 (15p in pound r4 deduction for me here - annoying)
Braveheart Move 1st, 9/2
Cute N You Know It, F, 4/1
Gower Bath 10th, 17/2
King Diamond, Unplaced, 6/1
It all means the bank is on a renewed high! Stakes are now £4.78 win singles.
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
Four today
Good luck to:
Blueberry Ice Fakenham 14:50 6/1 will hill
Dalradian Chepstow 16:10 4/1 will hill
Arctic Shadow Exeter 19:20 8/1 will hill double stake
Angle of Attack Catterick 20:05 7/1 will hill
Not happening today sadly, Arctic Shadow was well enough backed to warrant the double stake though ran very poorly, while Dalradian was only beaten just over a length or so.
Here's confirmation:
Blueberry Ice, 4th, 8/1sp
Dalradian, 2nd, 7/2
Arctic Shadow, 12th, 4/1
Angle of Attack, 7th, 7/1
Monday, 4 May 2009
An important day - six today
It'd be frustrating if that happens but am around for the long haul and the fortune is not going to be made overnight so we'll keep on pushing forward. Having said that really hoping a winner or two emerges later!
If you're thinking *what an idiot* why not just do level stakes and save yourself all this staking plan hassle, well believe me I've done so much research into staking plans it's unbelievable, and the fact is that while level stakes is a steady, reliable, way forward it won't make me rich - and that's what it's all about (for me anyway), so I'm prepared to take the peaks and troughs that come along with more aggressive plans.
I used to do a 10% of bank percentage system and believe me that was a lot more volatile! (But my God did it boost the bank quickly (albeit dropped hellish quickly too!).
Anyway good luck to:
Resentful Angel Warwick 15:10 6/1 betfred
Tartan Gigha Beverley 15:20 5/1 will hill
Rabbit Fighter Newcastle 15:45 10/1 ladbrokes
Captain Macarry Beverley 15:50 7/1 bet365
Dante Deo Beverley 16:50 8/1 will hill
Saborido Warwick 17:10 9/2 sporting bet
Well a superb day today thank goodness, virtually clearing all the losses over the last few days. If the seconds had got their noses in front then it would have been even better but mustn't grumble. Interestingly, if Saborido hadn't been running today then Admiral Duque in the 5.10 (the winner) would have been a double stake selection (and vice versa). Needless to say am kicking myself for not doing the forecast but that's the gamblers lament isn't it - you can never be truly happy!
Some very nicely backed runners today and nice to see them pay off.
Anyway here's confirmation:
Resentful Angel, 2nd, 9/2 sp (by the way my William Hill commentary friend returned for this one - a change of victor in the final furlong and barely the slightest raise in the volume of voice - if you're that bored by doing racing commentary then why the hell are you doing it mate?!)
Tartan Gigha, 1st, 7/2
Rabbit Fighter, 12th, 15/2
Captain Macarry Beverley, 1st, 4/1
Dante Deo Beverley, 1st, 8/1
Saborido Warwick 2nd, 5/2
Sunday, 3 May 2009
Two today
It's good luck to:
Oddsmaker Hamilton 16:10 20/1 William Hill
The Miniver Rose Newmarket 17:00 4/1 Paddy Power
God this game has a way of really bring you back down to earth!
I make it 19 without a win now after these two results although value was had once again which is the main thing over the long term of course.
Oddsmaker, 7th, 10/1
The Miniver Rose, 4th, 11/4f
My two for the 1000 guineas
Lahaleeb
Serious Attitude
The favourite is ruled out because she's already won over a mile!
Horrible day...
Actually had a lovely day out on the beach with my wife (while she's still fairly mobile!), but no returns from six selections today.
Managed to get them all on through betfair on the phone but it was a waste of time in the end.
Also - last night I sat down and worked out the 2000 guineas - and found a shortlist of three. Delegator, Sea The Stars and Evasive. Did I back them? Nah of course not, so it was with dubious pleasure I heard the Five live commentary with two of the three flashing home first. My punting outside of my bets here is virtually non existent these days, purely because I am trying to look after the cash ahead of the new arrival. Sadly that policy on more occasions than not actually costs me money like today! On a brighter note one of my antepost Derby selections - Rip Van Winkle - ran a very promising race with Epsom in mind. Just for the record I've backed a couple more in the Derby - Free Agent and Neeham, at 65 and 60 respectively on betfair. I'm on RVW at 12/1.
Anyway to the real business, these are the horses that went down this afternoon, some ran better than their finishing position would indicate.
King Charles - backed at 11 - Newmarket 2.00 - 6th, 7/1sp (unlucky in running incidentally which seems to be the theme of the week)
Willing Weasel - backed at 10 - Uttoxeter 2.10 - 9th, 10/1
Just Bond - backed at 14.5 - Thirsk 4.15 - 11th, 11/1
Mambo Spirit - backed at 8 - Thirsk 4.50 - 5th, 8/1
Molanna View - backed at 6.46 - Uttoxeter 5.00 - 3rd, 4/1
Legal Legacy - backed at 8 - Thirsk 5.20 - 4th, 8/1 (Double Stake)
Friday, 1 May 2009
One today
Good luck to:
Mandalay King Musselburgh 17:50 9/2 Bet365
Nothing doint today
Mandalay King, 8th, 7/2
Thursday, 30 April 2009
Level stake results month by month
November - 29 bets - 3 wins - minus 10.5pts (Running total -10.5pts)
December - 43 bets - 9 wins - plus 25.5pts (Running total + 15pts)
January - 39 bets - 6 wins - plus 11pts (Running total + 26pts)
February - 33 bets - 4 wins - plus 0.5pts (Running total +26.5pts)
March - 70 bets - 6 wins - minus 22.75pts (Running total +3.25pts)
April - 101 bets - 18 wins - plus 28.3pts (Running total +31.55pts)
The overall strike rate is 14.6% and the average win odds are 6.53/1 while the average price of selection is 8.28/1.
A decent April
101 bets 18 wins (17.82% strike rate) 23 placed (22.8%)
WIN £64.12 (+63.8% of bank from month's start)
Total bank: £164.70
The peak was £219.02 and I am on a current run of ten without a win.
Stakes are currently £4.38.
If the bank is reduced to £109.51 then stakes will be reduced to £2.19.
Any level above £219.02 will mean increased stakes.
If May can provide half of what's happened this month the bank will end May on £217.24 so that seems a reasonable short term target.
Five today
Good luck to:
Embsay Crag Redcar 15:40 10/1 ladbrokes
Naxox Hereford 16:05 5/1 sporting bet
Mango Music Redcar 16:15 10/1 bet365
Gofannon Hereford 16:40 9/2 betfred
Convallaria Yarmouth 19:30 11/2 sporting bet
Not been a good week so far, with 0 for 4 today, although of the days for the winners to not come it's not a bad one as I didn't get all the best prices. Gofannon pulled up early with what looked like an injury unfortunately.
Embsay Crag, 6th, 8/1
Naxox, PU, 13/2
Mango Music, 6th, 9/1
Gofannon, PU, 4/1
Convallaria NON RUNNER
April's been a good month overall but has ended with a wimper so will look forward to May to respark things.
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
A day of rest..
Which judging by the way it was backed this morning could be unlikely.
Wanting at least 7/2 about Kingdom of Light in the 2.20 at Pontefract, so have done it as Betfair SP option.
Otherwise all quiet today, which is a relief because work again severely got in the way of checking things today, which is set to be the case tomorrow as well.
Well I didn't quite get the price I was after on Kingdom of Light, which is lucky because he could only manage second. In hindsight it was a stupid thing to do, as my entire selection process is centred around backing horses at bigger prices than they "should" be, so by backing at Betfair SP is a completely futile exercise given how impressive the Betfair SP market is at sorting out the exact chances of a selection (at least for systems like this which using the betting market as literally the only reason for making a selection).
Otherwise a 9/1 shot was missed in the 5.15 at Pontefract when Timocracy was very close to being a selection but wasn't for a couple of reasons. Amazingly it went off at 9/4 and then did exactly what was expected. Loads of money for it on course, and there were enough clues about this morning to show that may happen but sadly this time I wasn't on it.
Am doing staff appraisals all day tomorrow so again work's going to get in the way but will do my best to get my bets on as early as possible and will look to update here when I can.
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
Three today
Absolutley hammered by work today and various meetings
It's / it was good luck to:
Miss Gibbs Bath 14:10 14/1 Ladbrokes (double stake)
Crimson Fern Bath 17:05 13/2 sporting bet
Speed Up Sedgefield 19:50 9/2 william hill (double stake)
Don't you hate five furlong sprints
Crimson Fern beaten a nose with this commentary:
towards rear, not clear run from over 1f out, switched both ways and ran on, just failed
Otherwise Miss Gibbs ran poorly and drifted as well so hopeless selection that one.
Miss Gibbs, 10th, 20/1sp
Crimson Fern, 2nd, 6/1
Speed Up, NON RUNNER
Monday, 27 April 2009
Six today
Good luck to:
Menelaus Towcester 14:40 8/1 Stan James DOUBLE
Raucous Newcastle 14:50 8/1 will hill DOUBLE
Laconicos Plumpton 15:00 7/1 Stan James DOUBLE
Supreme Speedster Newcastle 15:20 6/1 bet365
Amethyst Dawn Newcastle 15:50 10/1 bet 365
When Doves Cry Windsor 17:55 9/2 ladbrokes
Not a great day, really not helped because of two short priced non runners in the 2.50 which decimated the price of my winner.
Manelaus, 5th, 4/1
Raucous, 1st, 7/4 (paid me the equivalent of 2.8/1)
Laconicos, F, 11/2
Supreme Speedster, 16th, 7/1
Amethyst Dawn, 5th, 4/1
When Doves Cry, 9th, 5/1
Sunday, 26 April 2009
Weekly update
21 bets
3 wins 14.29%
8 placed 38.1%
10 unplaced 47.6%
1.5pt loss on the week
Roll on tomorrow!
100th post! - three today
Ameeq was extremely close to being a "double stake" selection, but not quite, so that one will almost certainly win due to sods law!
Because of yesterday's winner, the bank was at a "renewed high" of £219.02, so that means stakes are now £4.38 win singles.
It's good luck to:
Williams Wishes Ludlow 3.05 5/1 bet365
Ameeq Ludlow 4.15 10/1 will hill
Stamford Blue Brighton 5.25 10/1 Bet365
Close but no cigar today, with 0/3 the return but at least a fair bit of value as normal.
Williams Wishes, 2nd, 3/1
Ameeq, 3rd, 17/2
Stamford Blue, 6th, 9/1
Saturday, 25 April 2009
Three today and interesting findings
This proved successful (406 bets, 68 wins, average win odds 6.51/1, ROI 25.8%, Level stakes profit 104.75pts) but what was frustrating was the slightly low run of bets.
There'd be an average of two or three a week.
Since then my analysis has shown it pays to loosen up a bit, albeit at risk of damaging strike rate and ROI purely because the number of bets drive things forward.
Last night though, I sat down and worked out what my ROI/Strike rate would be if I stuck to my original method of finding selections since this latest effort. The findings are quite interesting:
38 bets
9 wins
Strike rate: 23.68%
Average winning odds: 6.75/1
ROI: 59.87%
Level stakes profit: 22.75pts
So over a smaller series, quite similar results to my plan of a couple of years ago.
So a dilemma, to stick to this or to somehow incorporate it into the bigger picture.
So after some thought, I've decided to incorporate the "super selection" process into my current plan, by purely doubling the stakes on the horses that are selected in this way.
Ironically the first of those selections runs today:
Good luck to:
Alsadaa Sandown 13:35 8/1 will hill
Hustle Leicester 13:55 5/1 bet365
The Artful Fox Market Rasen 14:15 16/1 sporting bet - DOUBLE STAKE
Obviously if The Artful Fox wins it'll be an excellent day.
Hope you have a great weekend - off for a golf lesson now!
Golf lesson went well but Alsadaa even better, scooting home to win easily.
Otherwise a non runner and not a good start for the new double stake system, still a profitable day!
Alsadaa, 1st, 13/2sp
Hustle Non Runner
The Artful Fox, 6th, 14/1
Friday, 24 April 2009
Return On Investment and other stats
Total wins: 44
Level stakes profit: +35.75pts
Average Odds: 8.29/1
Average Winning Odds: 6.59/1
Longest Winning Sequence: 3
Longest Losing Sequence: 30
Strike Rate: 14.77%
Required Strike Rate to produce profit assuming current winning odds continue: 13.2%
Return on Investment: 11.99%
Bought my Dad the new book Enemy Number One (which looks a cracking read by the way) for his birthday and apparently the word is a decent ROI is anything above 8%, so pretty good so far on that scale. If anybody has thoughts on ROI I'd be really interested to hear it, it's something I've not really thought much about for some reason until tonight.
Four today
Am on -
Master of disguise - 2.35 sandown, 13/2 totesport
Nicky tam, 5pm perth , 8/1 paddy power
Mighty moose, 5.45 chepstow, 9/2 stan james
Wizard's dust 7.45 bangor, 5/1 bet365
A profitable day!
Master of Disguise winning the 2.35 really well and backed right up to the off.
Here are the sp's and all:
Master of Disguise, 1st, 3/1
Nicky Tam - NON RUNNER
Mighty Moose, 3rd, 4/1
Wizard's Dust, 4th, 10/3
Thursday, 23 April 2009
Four today
Good luck to:
Sharp Reply Perth 14:40 21/5 sporting bet
Thunderball Beverley 15:00 5/1 bet365
Ollie Magern Perth 15:40 4/1 paddy power
Lavenoak Lad Uttoxeter 19:30 6/1 bet365
Nothing doing here with 0/4 on the day unfortunately.
Here's confirmation:
Sharp Reply, 5th, 8/1sp
Thunderball, 3rd, 11/2
Ollie Magern, 2nd, 5/2
Lavenoak Lad, 3rd, 5/1
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
Three today
Three today, two in the same race which I don't like doing but both have been really well backed.
So it's good luck to:
Categorical Perth 16:30 13/2 sporting bet
Conjecture Catterick 17:50 5/1 bet365
Karate Queen Catterick 17:50 9/1 betfred
Conjecture ran a decent race to finish second (was mugged in the last 50 yards) but no return today. Alarmingly Conjecture and Karate Queen drifted a fair bit before off time although the first selection continued to shorten.
On a different note, don't you hate racing commentators who are so flat that you know they couldn't care less who won the race? Yesterday's Conjecture finish was relayed with an extraordinary lack of enthusiasm on the Will Hill line, which was surprising given the lead changed right before the line with a horse the bloke had barely mentioned before.
Anyway with that off my chest here's confirmation:
Categorical, 10th, 9/2sp
Conjecture, 2nd, 7/1
Karate Queen, 7th, 12/1
Tuesday, 21 April 2009
Three runners today
Goood luck to:
Pelham Crescent Bath 17:15 5/1 bet365
Lennie Briscoe Bath 17:50 9/2 coral
Thievery Towcester 19:30 5/1 bet365
Some very well backed horses on the all weather today but all the research I've done says they're not worthing following (it's actually profitable to lay them).
A profitable day! Pelham Crescent winning the first race in good style. A shame a winner couldn't be found from the other two selections as the bank would have been at a "renewed high". As it is, it's five points short.
Pelham Crescent, 1st, 4/1sp
Lennie Briscoe, 6th, 5/1
Thievery, 6th, 4/1
Monday, 20 April 2009
Bounce back with three today
Good luck to:
Brincscall Pontefract 14:10 4/1 boyle sports
Yankee Holiday Hexham 15:30 5/1 william hill
Last Sovereign Windsor 18:15 7/2 bet 365
It's eight without a win now, here's confirmation:
Brincscall, 5th, 11/2
Yankee Holiday, 3rd, 4/1
Last Sovereign, 7th, 3/1
Sunday, 19 April 2009
A blank weekend
As it turned out it was a blank afternoon with two selections going down.
Nesnaas in the 3.20 at Wincanton
Backed at 5/1 with Paddy Power, came 6th, 9/2 sp
Elite Land in the 5.00 at Stratford
Backed at 9/2 with Bet365, came 3rd at 5/1 (given far too much to do incidentally)
Saturday, 18 April 2009
Three today
Good luck to:
Blue Rum Thirsk 14:00 4/1 bet365
Island Arrow Bangor 15:50 8/1 will hill
La Rosa Nostra Doncaster 19:25 5/1 paddy power
0/3 today unfortunately although they all ran quite well.
Blue Rum, 3rd, 9/2
Island Arrow, 4th, 17/2
La Rosa Nostra, 2nd, 5/2
Friday, 17 April 2009
Eight today
Missed a point or two with some of these because of work commitments but not too much damage done.
Good luck to:
Etxalar Ayr 14:20 14/1 tote sport
Oldjoesaid Newbury 14:40 9/2 sporting bet
Mitchel Henry Ayr 14:50 4/1 ladbrokes
Turn Me On Thirsk 15:40 5/1 sporting bet
Cast Iron Casey Ayr 16:00 7/2 bet365
Solway Bee Ayr 16:35 16/1 boyle sports
What A Scientist Cheltenham 19:20 8/1 boyle sports
Run Forest Run Sedgefield 20:00 7/1 bet365
Another profitable day with April more so far more than correcting all the problems through Feb/March. Damn shame the run happened in the order it did because the bank would be looking very healthy, but because of the reduction in stakes it's lagging a little behind. Using The Staking Machine I can shuffle the results any number of times and find that the bank wouldn't have needed to be adjusted on about 90% of other runs of results. Still mustn't grumble as at least the results are coming now (as I always thought they would!)
Anyway here's confirmation:
Etxalar 4th, 10/1sp
Oldjoesaid 6th, 3/1
Mitchel Henry NON RUNNER
Turn Me On 1st, 11/4f
Cast Iron Casey 4th, 100/30
Solway Bee 4th, 14/1
What A Scientist 5th, 6/1
Run Forest Run 1st, 9/2
It means the bank's again at a "renewed" high, of £216.85 - bets are now £4.34 win singles.
Thursday, 16 April 2009
Three today
Irish Guard, Cheltenham 2.45 12/1 Stan James
Edge Closer, Newmarket 3.00 5/1 Ladbrokes
Vhujon, Ripon 4.55 6/1 sporting bet
Not happening today unfortunately, with 0/3 on show.
Irish Guard, PU, 9/2sp
Edge Closer, 7th, 7/2
Vhujon, 4th, 7/1
Irish Guard never really seemed to be travelling, Edge Closer missed the break which seemed to put pay to his chances and Vhujon again was a little slow starting and beaten around a length in the end.
Wednesday, 15 April 2009
Six today
So it's good luck to:
Dave's Dream Cheltenham 15:20 9/2 sporting bet
Ougba Newmarket 15:35 5/1 bet365
Private Be Cheltenham 15:55 5/1 bet365
Wajaha Newmarket 16:10 21/5 sporting bet
Secret Witness Newmarket 17:20 18/1 Coral
Dark Mischief Newmarket 17:55 11/2 skybet
The winning continues, this is a brilliant run at the moment, partly thanks to some unexposed flat runners being heavily punted and doing the business.
Dave's Dream, 6th, 9/2sp
Ougba, 1st, 4/1
Private Be, 2nd, 7/2
Wajaha, 7th, 7/2
Secret Witness - Non Runner
Dark Mischief, 1st, 3/1
The bank is now around the £201 mark so stakes are currently £4.02 win singles.
Tuesday, 14 April 2009
Busy run continues
Good luck to:
Copper Sound Exeter 14:10 20/1 will hill
Summer Lodge Market Rasen 14:30 13/2 bet365
Ibberton Exeter 15:10 5/1 ladbrokes
Dr Hart Exeter 15:40 14/1 will hill
Dart Yarmouth 16:20 11/2 sporting bet
Another profitable day! Ibberton absolutely hosing up after continuing to be backed.
Copper Sound actually ran pretty well in the first but faded in the closing stages, Summer Lodge fell when reasonably close up and having three to jump while Dart was a non-runner.
Copper Sound, 4th, 20/1sp
Summer Lodge, F, 9/2
Ibberton, 1st, 7/2
Dr Hart, 6th, 16/1
Dart, Non Runner
The 2pt profit today means the bank is finely poised at it's "renewed" peak, so hopefully stakes will be increased at some point in the next few days.
Monday, 13 April 2009
Busy Bank Holiday
Eight in total meeting my criteria of being nicely backed so it's good luck to:
Style Award Redcar 14:00 13/2 vcbet
lways Certain Plumpton 14:30 20/1 stan james
Zefooha Redcar 14:35 8/1 boylesports
Desert Kiss Yarmouth 14:50 4/1 ladbrokes
Palos Conti Fakenham 15:15 10/1 sporting bet
Blaze Ahead Huntingdon 15:55 9/1 sporting bet
Alfadora Fakenham 16:25 8/1 will hill
Celebrity Call Plumpton 16:50 10/1 bet365
Another profitable day, with Palos Conti getting up in the shadow of the post to win (six weeks ago he would've been beaten a nose!). That was the only winner but the price was decent.
Here's confirmation:
Style Award Redcar 7th, 7/1 sp
Always Certain 8th, 16/1
Zefooha Redcar 8th, 4/1
Desert Kiss Yarmouth 4th, 9/4
Palos Conti Fakenham 1st, 9/2
Blaze Ahead Huntingdon 3rd, 6/1
Alfadora Fakenham 3rd, 15/2
Celebrity Call Plumpton 2nd, 8/1
A good day for value as well with seven out of the eight selections going off shorter (sometimes considerably so) at SP. As for Chepstow - not a winner in sight but low stakes and lovely weather meant for a great day out.
Today's winner also means that the bank has a new stake of £3.54 (from the peak of £177.03) - gradually getting back up there after that shocking recent run.
Sunday, 12 April 2009
Happy Easter
Good luck to:
Vial De Kerdec, Plumpton 2.30 - 12/1 Bet365
Mythicism, Mussleburgh 5.20 7.1 Bet365
Could actually have taken 15/2 about the second selection but went for best odds guaranteed, not sure that's the best thing to do but we'll see.
Nice winner today to cancel out the poor little run of the last 3 or 4 days. Been a good month so far, I hope it continues. Could be an interesting day tomorrow with all the racing on!
Here's confirmation
Vial De Kerdec, 1st, 12-1sp
Mythicism, 8th, 15/2
Saturday, 11 April 2009
Quiet return to action
Good luck to:
Noble Action, Newton Abbot 15:15, william hill 7/1
Possible winner down the pan there with Noble Action unseating at the 12th fence when in contention. Had the value again though.
Noble Action, UR, 4/1f
Thursday, 9 April 2009
Six runners today!
Good luck to:
Battle - Folkestone 14:10 5/1 bet365
Orion Star Wincanton 14:20 14/1 will hill
We Have A Dream Folkestone 14:40 8/1 stan james
Pourdel Wincanton 14:50 11/2 sporting bet
Tyup Pompey Ludlow 16:00 25/1 bet365
Up In Arms Folkestone 16:10 16/1 Stan James
Carnage today without a winner in sight. Would have actually had an 8/1 shot come in if I hadn't ruled it on account of the number of runners in the race but there you go. And Up In Arms was backed down to half the price but then UR - in a 1m4furlong flat race - what the hell?!
Anyway here's confirmation
Battle - 4th, 13/2sp
Orion Star , 6th, 8/1
We Have A Dream, 10th, 15/2
Pourdel, 4th, 9/2
Tyup Pompey, 7th, 22/1
Up In Arms, UR, 15/2
Wednesday, 8 April 2009
Five today
Good luck to the following:
Rievaulx World, Nottingham 2.30 4/1 Bet365
Terrible Tenant, Hereford 3.40, 5/1 Will Hill
Star Strider, Brighton, 3.50, 6/1 Will Hill
Taste The Wine, Nottingham, 4.30, 10/1 Will Hill
Thoughtsofstardom, Brighton, 4.50, 12/1 Bet365
Wipeout today with no winners and one selection beaten by a 40/1 outsider. Nothing like being brought back down to earth after a good recent spell!
Got the value with most of these though which is the idea
Here's confirmation:
Rievaulx World, 6th, 5/2
Terrible Tenant, 2nd, 9/2
Star Strider, 6th, 15/2
Taste The Wine, 10th, 8/1
Thoughtsofstardom, 6th, 8/1
Tuesday, 7 April 2009
Four today
Anyway have best price guaranteed for all the selections which is something.
Good luck to:
Ouste, Sedgefield 14:50 stan james 9/2
Buckstruther, Sedgefield 15:50 9/1 will hill
Take Me There, Fontwell 16:30 4/1 will hill
Eton Fable, Pontefract 17:40 3/1 boylesports
Well it's almost like today never really happened, with level results for the day thanks to the 3/1 winner in the last.
Ouste, faller, 11/2
Buckstruther, 4th, 9/1
Take Me There, 5th, 9/4f
Eton Fable, 1st, 11/4f
Damn shame I was in the meeting this morning as I should have got 4/1 about Eton Fable but there you go what can you do! When the bank is at a decent enough level I might start employing somebody to place bets on my behalf to make sure I get the prices I'm after but a long way from that at present. Onwards to tomorrow.
Level stake results month by month
So here is the first month by month tally to a single point level stake betting plan - starting in November when this plan kicked into gear (before this blog started).
November - 29 bets - 3 wins - minus 10.5pts (Running total -10.5pts)
December - 43 bets - 9 wins - plus 25.5pts (Running total + 15pts)
January - 39 bets - 6 wins - plus 11pts (Running total + 26pts)
February - 33 bets - 4 wins - plus 0.5pts (Running total +26.5pts)
March - 70 bets - 6 wins - minus 22.75pts (Running total +3.25pts)
April (at present) 18 bets - 6 wins - plus 24.5pts (Running total +27.75pts)
The overall strike rate is 14.66% and the average win odds are 6.64/1 while the average price of selection is 8.53/1.
November wasn't a complete month and January and February were hit very badly by abandoned fixtures (I don't follow all weather moves as they've proved far too unreliable). Obviously March (and much of Feb in fact) was tough but as mentioned elsewhere it's going to happen every now and then with a relatively low strike rate. There were a horrible amount of seconds in there though.
Anyway come each month's end I'll update on here my current bank, with current bet size but also keep a note of these level stake profit/loss tallies to a single point.
Monday, 6 April 2009
Manic Monday
Very busy day ahead, with some big prices
Good luck to:
La Pantera Rosa Kelso 14:30 10/1 Coral
Annibale Caro Kelso 15:00 6/1 Sporting Bet
Efistorm Windsor 15:50 9/1 sporting bet
Majestic Chief Kelso 16:00 14/1 william hill
Popmurphy Windsor 16:20 9/2 bet365
Royal Envoy Windsor 16:50 11/1 william hill
A brilliant day today, with three straight wins in the middle there. It meant the bank has seen increased stakes throughout the day (a bit of a pain when you're busy at work incidentally!) Otherwise an unlucky unseated runner in the first, and a decent fourth to finish. Things are looking good.
La Pantera Rosa, UR, 10/1sp
Annibale Caro Kelso, 1st, 6/1
Efistorm Windsor , 1st, 5/1
Majestic Chief - NON RUNNER
Popmurphy Windsor, 1st 11/2 (guaranteed odds in play)
Royal Envoy Windsor, 4th, 10/1
The bank now stands at £160.64, with bets of £3.28.
It's possibly worth pointing out that if hadn't changed my staking plan when I did a couple of weeks ago the bank would be sitting on £241.95, but I won't dwell on it because my reasons for changing the plan were sound and still stand today. I'd love to be able to prove that I can turn £150 into a few thousand and not see the bank go bust along the way, and that is what I intend to do.
Sunday, 5 April 2009
Busy Sunday ahead
Good luck to :
Georgia Steel Southwell 14:10 4/1 William Hill
Sarahs Gift Southwell 14:40 6/1 Bet365
At The Money Market Rasen 15:00 4/1 William Hill
Portside Southwell 16:40 9/2 William Hill
Darinas Boy Hexham 16:50 6/1 Sporting Bet
Another profitable day. If it wasn't a terrible mid Feb to late March I'd be in very good profit, but c'est la vie.
At least things are turning around now (I knew reducing stakes would kick start things!). Two winners today anyway here's confirmation and SPs.
Georgia Steel, PU, 4-1sp
Sarahs Gift , 2nd, 3/1
At The Money 1st, 7-2
Portside, 3rd, 10-3
Darinas Boy Hexham 1st, 9-2
Saturday, 4 April 2009
Away from the National..
Wanted to get on with Stan James with one of them but their website isn't loading (assuming it's temporarily down because of too much traffic, wonder how much £ that could cost them today)
Anyway it's good luck to:
Dechiper, Newcastle 15:05, 10/1
Aheadofhistime, Chepstow 16:05, 6/1
By the way here are my four for the big one today:
1) Himalayan Trail
2) Rambling Minster
3) Butler's Cabin
4) Offshore Account
Very open race though.
What a spectacle - I think it's my highlight of the sporting year!
Well a total wipe out in the National, but the system finds a nice winner at Chepstow!
Dechiper, 5th, 10/1sp
Aheadofhistime, 1st, 9/2
Friday, 3 April 2009
Three for a Friday
Anyway three today..
Silk Hall - Aintree 2.00 - 11/2 Stan James
Celtic Change - Musselburgh 4.40 - 9/2 Sporting Bet
Handcuff - Bath - 5.05 - 9/1 Bet365
Good luck to them all
Not a great day today, with the low point being Celtic Change being beaten in a photo. Thought Handcuff was a bit unlucky as well although probably wouldn't have won. Got the value again though.
Silk Hall - 5th - 5/1
Celtic Change - 2nd - 5/2
Handcuff - 4th - 7/1
Thursday, 2 April 2009
Just one today
So much racing today, but only one selection being backed enough to warrant inclusion
Cornus in the 5.40 at Leicester, 17/2 with VC bet.
Thought he ran a decent race, despite an awful ride. Beaten just over a length to finish 3rd in the end.
Cornus, 3rd, 9-1sp
Away from this one, at least I won a few quid by backing Madison du Berlais at Aintree today. Funny though, would probably have prefered Denman to go on and win well, just for the sake of racing, very sad to see him fall. Also what terrible news about Exotic Dancer, a real trier and will be badly missed.
Wednesday, 1 April 2009
Two today
Hope so, as if either of these win the bank will be set at a new high so stakes will be adjusted for the future.
It's good luck to:
Cnoc Bay, 2.40 Exeter, 8-1 William Hill
Punching, 3.50 Catterick, 11-1 Boylesports
Not happening today, although I thought Punching was a tad unlucky in running.
Cnoc Bay, 5th 6-1sp
Punching, 10th, 9-1
The mad month of March
What a rubbish time was had, 70 bets and only six wins - a loss of some £133.57 in the end (- 56.9% of bank).
During that time there was a straight run of 30 losers, a record for my research and quite a few large priced runners up (including 20/1, 14/1 , 10/1).
Things have improved in the last few days which hopefully means we can continue the good form into April.
My overall strike rate is currently standing at 13.08%, where from my research I would be expecting at least 15% , so things have been under performing since the start of this betting plan (started November 19th 2008). I see no reason why things won't correct themselves in the next few weeks/months.
I haven't really ever set any proper targets for this, (apart from the overall slightly grandiose aim of "winning a fortune"!) and I prefer it this way, I don't want to feel hampered by profit plans and slipping behind. Having said that, I think it's safe to say I'd be disappointed if the bank wasn't sitting with at least £500 by this time next year. That may not seem like a large amount of money, but the fact is if that percentage increase can be repeated again by the following April the bank would then be on £2500, and then the following April again it would be £12500. It's going to take a while but I'm sure this can pay very generously in the long run, with a stable and steady staking plan. All will become clear in the months ahead!
Tuesday, 31 March 2009
Four today
It's good luck to :
Prioryjo - in the 3.05 at Wetherby - 10-1 with Bet365
Sir Bathwick - in the 3.40 at Wetherby 11-2 with Stan James
Dawn Ride in the 4.45 at Wetherby - 8-1 with ToteSport
Munlochy Bay - in the 5.05 at Folkestone - 4-1 with Bet365
Three profitable betting days in a row, it looks like things are beginning to turn around again I'm pleased to say. Dawn Ride won really easily, but a shame Munlochy Bay couldn't quite win the last (beaten half a length) otherwise it would have been even better. Still, second places have been pretty much par for the course these last few weeks so quite immune to it!
Prioryjo, PU, 16-1 sp
Sir Bathwick, 3rd, 4-1
Dawn Ride, 1st, 6-1
Munlochy Bay, 2nd, 7-2
Monday, 30 March 2009
A passport to riches?

Very interesting read, with 13 year trends for an incredible amount of flat races through the season. Good amount of stats in there, and just looking back at the first three races of the season in there, the Cammidge Trophy, Lincoln and Magnolia Stakes, it would have gone some way towards picking all three winners. Don't know if it'll prove profitable to follow in the months ahead but I do like my trends (certainly serves me well at Cheltenham normally) so I will give it a good go and see what happens. Will post the odd selection on here probably as well, although obviously they won't be my "proper" bets.
Nothing today
But sadly there's nothing doing.
Back again tomorrow!
Sunday, 29 March 2009
Three for a sunny Sunday
Just managed to quickly get on and reveal today's selections..
Doncaster 2.00 - Wester Lodge 15/2 Coral
Kelso 2.40 - Lady Chaterlane 40/1 Will Hill
Doncaster 5.20 - Spring Goddess 7/1 Bet365
Despite my saying a few days ago that I wouldn't be swayed by price, to ignore the odd factor or two, have fallen victim of greed by doing Lady Chaterlane. She has been nicely backed though and can't risk seeing her go and win. At 40/1 would rather lose the £2.20 than have the sickening feeling of seeing her jumping the last eight clear without being on.
Anyway good luck to them all!
Another winning day, they're becoming a bit more frequent now I'm pleased to say! And a brilliant result too, with Spring Goddess winning the last at Doncaster after for some unknown reason (to me) drifting to 11/1 - good old best odds guaranteed, it really is a brilliant thing certain bookies offer.
Lady Chaterlaine ran a pretty decent race as well, judged by the distance she was beaten so not kicking myself about backing her as well.
Here's confirmation:
Wester Lodge - 6th, 8-1 sp
Lady Chaterlaine - 5th, 18-1
Spring Goddess - 1st, 11-1
2nd = £0
These have been priced at an average of 7.48/1.
Funny how even if just a couple of these had finished first (and I've had many beaten less than a length) the bank would be so much more healthy.
Quite reassuring to look at things like this every now and then, and not in a self pitying way but actually to bolster the belief that things will likely turn around for the best before too long.
Anyway off to bed - the damn clocks have just gone forward!
Saturday, 28 March 2009
One last push for March
Sadly missed a point of a price with all these today because have been out helping the other half buy a new(ish) car in preperation for the new arrival!
Anyway am on:
Archipnko, in the 3.55 at Nad Al Sheba, 9/2 with Bet 365
Even Flo in the 4.55 at Uttoxeter - 5/1 with Bet Fred
Shinnecock Bay in the 5.10 at Lingfield, 4-1 with Tote Sport
Vauxhall Astra bought today for the wife - in three years time a Jag XKR convertible.. Well we'll see - it all starts today!
Ok a small step forward today I'm pleased to say, with Even Flo winning comfortably.
Archipenko, 6th, 7-2f
Even Flo, 1st, 11-4f
Shinecock Bay, Fell, 4-1f
Hopefully more of the same tomorrow. I don't think I'll be able to post selections before the off tomorrow but will try.
Friday, 27 March 2009
Let's get back on track with these
Rory Boy in the 3.30 at Ascot, 9/2 with William Hill
Oscar Park in the 4.40 at Ascot 5/1 with Boyle Sports
To Arms in the 5.15 at Ascot, 9/2 with Sporting Bet
Good luck to them all!
Rory Boy and To Arms BOTH beaten a neck. What the hell is going on here.
At least the value was had again.
Rory Boy - 2nd - 10/3sp
Oscar Park - PU - 9/2
To Arms - 2nd - 7/2
Going to have to go some to make March a successful month particularly with the new reduced stakes.
Thursday, 26 March 2009
A busy Thursday!
Dawn At Sea, Hereford 2.35 , 25/1 with Bet365
Crank Hill, Towcester, 3.20, 8/1 with Will Hill
Jacks Lad, Hereford, 4.20, 4/1 Bet Fred
Lerida, Carlisle 5.20, 11/2 Bet365
All have been nicely backed. God knows where Dawn at Sea is getting her support from but hopefully she can repay it!
This is a truly hideous run, which will surely end soon. But it's incredibly frustrating seeing it play out.
Dawn at Sea, 5th, 22/1
Crank HIll, 3rd, 7-2 f
Jack's Lad 5th, 15-8f
Lerida, 6th, 6-1
Crank Hill ran quite well and was only beaten just over a length but that's not good enough.
I wonder if a lot of the recent selections are suffering endofseasonitis. I remember a similar appalling run around October when the turf flat drew to a close. Thank goodness the flat's starting again on Saturday, hopefully a few nice coups will be landed.
Wednesday, 25 March 2009
Will there be another winner today
Infuriatingly I wasn't able to get on as early as I wanted to because of work so missed a point or two with the prices.
Anyway am on:
Mad Moose in the 3.00 at Taunton, 8-1 with Stan James
Flutter Bye in the 4.10 at Towcester, 6-1 with Bet365
No is the answer to the title...
Mad Moose, 2nd, 9-2 sp
Flutter Bye, 5th, 13-2
Tuesday, 24 March 2009
Three today
Physical Force - Sedgefield 16:00 9/1
Remainder - Sedgefield - 16.30 10/1
Fujin Dancer - Southwell - 17.10 7/1
Well a successful day!
Fujin Dancer winning the last very comfortably. Each of the selections again well backed again so nice to see the "value" was had. Remainder sounded a winner approaching the last but then dropped like a stone to finish fourth, a shame would have meant for an excellent day rather than just a good one!
Physical Force - UR - 11/2sp
Remainder - 4th - 13/2
Fujin Dancer - 1st - 4/1
Monday, 23 March 2009
Three today
Let's start the week with a winner or two with one or more of these:
Sarahs Gift, Plumpton 3.40 Bet365 4/1
Randwick Road, Kempton, 3.50, Will Hill 10/1
Arhurian, Plumpton 4.50, Paddy power 10/1
Still not happening...
Sarah's Gift, 3rd, 100-30sp
Randwick Road, PU, 6-1
Arhurian, 5th, 7-2
Poor old Randwick Road actually died after pulling up today, my condolances to connections.
Sunday, 22 March 2009
Two selections today
Am on:
Wincanton 2.50 Kirbys Glen 11/2 William Hill
Huntingdon 4.40 Knock Boy 12/1 William Hill
Am feeling settled at my change of staking, and with my long term confidence unaffected in the system, I'm sure things will work out well. It just may take me longer to make very decent money but that's what comes with starting with just £150!
The poor run continues
Kirbys Glen, 4th, 3-1f
Knock Boy, 3rd, 5-1
Staking plan change of heart
As mentioned previously, my ultimate staking plan is 2% of bank, without reducing stakes from the peak unless the bank gets to 50% of that peak. It then reverts to a new peak, and new stake as each new summit is reached.
I hadn't planned on bringing this in until the bank got to £1000 because of the reasonably small sums involved.
However I have now changed my mind about this. I don't actually want to put my "own money" at risk at a time when financially things are tight with the new baby due this summer.
From today therefore, I am backdating my staking plan allowing for this 50% reduction of stake.
If I had been doing that from day one, the bank would be now on £82.99. Here is the graph.

The current stakes are: £2.20. The bank is £43.97 more than my previous bank. This is the money I won at Cheltenham last week and is still deposited in various bookies accounts.
Some people may think it folly to change staking plans midway through, and it maybe is, but that's the way I'm doing it. If I had loads of spare dosh I wouldn't be anxious to see the losers continue to pile up. I haven't, so I am and I don't want to be worrying about things and playing with scared money, that's no fun at all (for me anyway!).
And apart from anything if ever anything was going to spark a run of winners it's reducing the stakes by almost a third!!
To back long odds or not to back long odds
And for this purpose I mean 11-1 or longer.
Have spent quite a lot of the evening looking back at all my records, and the results are a little inconclusive. As you'd expect they are less likely to win than the shorter priced selections but of course return a fair bit more.
In the last six months, it's shown that it would have been wise to leave them out. But in the twelve months before that, backing them did show a profit.
I think what I've been most guilty about is chosing a horse which isn't quite a system selection just on account of the large price. These are the runners which really do struggle. So I'm just going to be strict with myself. Don't get swayed by big odds over all else, and just back all horses in the same way regardless of price. I wouldn't ignore a factor or two to back a 4/1 shot so why should I about a 25/1 shot? Certainly I won't from now on after looking back at results.
Onwards and upwards - and I'm pleased to have the poker - I made all I lost today and a fair bit more in a session this evening. It's there if I need it, so will make the transfer to my bookies accounts if they need propping up.
It's all about the long term, there are peaks and troughs - as shown in the below graph which charts all the system selections I have on the computer, to level stakes (the percentage bank system goes off the wall and doesn't make for a very good graph).
At the end of the day my latest bank is only with 187 selections. At least a 1000 are needed I'd say before getting a true picture about whether things are going really well or not. It's just typical that a run like I'm on has to come in these relatively early days, and even more typical that it coincides with the start of this blog!
Saturday, 21 March 2009
A hectic Saturday ahead
I'm on:
Stratford 14:25 Zelos, 12/1 Bet Fred
Stratford 14:55 Fontanesi, 13/2 Sky Bet
Haydock 15:15 Saunders Road, 4/1 Bet Fred
Bangor, 16:30 Rathcor, 8/1 Stan James
Stratford 16:35 Bali Bay, 5/1 Bet365
Haydock, 16.55, All For The Cause, , 8/1 Stan James
Carnage.
A few of these ran with some credit but none could get their heads in front. Check out the SPs, they were all backed all day, so lots of money lost. Things have got to turn soon, at least in the next few weeks.
Zelos, 3rd, 5-1
Fontanesi, 2nd 11-2
Saunders Road, PU, 5-2
Rathcor, 3rd, 4-1
Bali Bay, 6th, 7-2
All for the Cause, 5th, 4-1
Below is the graph with the staking plan I am currently using, with ratchet stakes betting at level stakes since it's highest peak. I am hoping this is about as bad as it gets.
A few weeks ago, I mentioned how that the staking plan I want to do, to avoid bust banks, was to reduce the stake by half when the bank gets to 50% of its peak, (and then reduce the stakes again should it get it to 50% of that etc). Because I am playing with relatively small stakes, I decided to let things run and hope they correct themselves without that being necessary. With that in mind, I am happy to invest another £150 into the betting bank, if necessary, (I have money currently in my Full Tilt poker account I can withdraw) and keep with the current stakes of £6.24 until that is bust (obviously hoping that doesn't happen). I have so much research and paper trading behind me that I am totally confident things will correct themselves eventually.
Interestingly, if I had just gone with level stakes from day one since beginning this betting bank, I would just be marginally under the amount I started with. This is that particularly graph.
Tonight I plan to do some research into horses backed over the price of 11-1. My latest research which I can get to relatively easily goes back to July 2007 so I will base my findings on that. I'll report back later with conclusions. Infuriatingly since July 2007 the longest losing run has been 30. Guess when that was - yep it ended last week! Before that we have to go back 18 months when a run of 27 losers was found. In the meantime, let's hope for a winner or two at some point soon!
Friday, 20 March 2009
One today
Sleepers Hill, in the 3.25 at Kelso, on at 8-1 with Stan James
By the way did some light research last night on the prices of my selections, it appears horses 11-1 or more have been under performing. Will do lots more work on this this weekend to see if those horses should be phased out, or perhaps done each way instead.
Well got the value, but despite the horse continuing to be backed into 5/1 he finished a very poor 8th. March has been a shocker of a month so far.
Thursday, 19 March 2009
Could be a cracking day
Am on
Whispering Moor - Ayr 14.20 25/1 with Bet365
Dusty Dane - Ludlow 15:35 16/1 with Betfred
Oleolat - Ayr 17:00, 5/1 with Stan James
Beginning to approach the end of March and a fair few points to make up if I'm going to be at least level. In fact I think it appears likely that this month is going to be a losing one - but we'll see.
Well it would have been a cracking day, but as it turned out it was a rubbish day. None placed, and to make matters worse two of the selections drifted in price from when I backed them - now obviously I don't mind when they then go on to win(!) which does happen, but the fact is my system surrounds backing horses at prices bigger than what they should theoretically be (i.e the starting price). So yes not happy today, and very much looking forward to a nice streak of wins to get things back on track.
Whispering Moor - PU 22/1 SP
Dusty Dane - 5th 20/1 SP
Oleolat - 4th 7/1 SP
Wednesday, 18 March 2009
One selection today
Prince of Slane, in the 4.00 at Warwick, at 8/1 with Paddy Power.
He hasn't won for more than three years, but today that run will hopefully end.
Well the aim is to get the value, so that was achieved with an SP of 11/2
Sadly Prince of Slane wasn't entirely aware of what was expected of him, and finished third.
Decent enough performance though.
Tuesday, 17 March 2009
Two runners today
I know things will turn around soon but beginning to get impatient!
Diego Velasquez Kempton 14:30 - 12/1 Bet365
Spanish Conquest Kempton 16:50 - 5/1 Ladbrokes
Good luck to both of them.
Well Diego Velasquez was a distant 4th (sp 9/1)
But Spanish Conquest scoots home in 1st (sp 7/2)! I could sense a winner or two was around the corner. Hopefully things can continue tomorrow.
Monday, 16 March 2009
Two runners today
I'm on Simply Blue - Taunton 3.50 - 4/1 with Ladbrokes
and
Armour Multiple - Taunton 3.50 - 33/1 with Bet365 (half stake as still don't like betting two in a single race but can't avoid the price)
Not happening today, with Simply Blue finishing just out of the frame at 3/1 SP
Armour Multiple finished 11th and last, at 40/1 SP.
Sunday, 15 March 2009
An exceptionally busy Sunday
It's good luck to:
13.40 Southwell - Italiano 12/1 Bet365 (guaranteed odds)
14.10 Southwell - Victor Daly 19/4 Sporting Bet
14.40 Southwell - Dunkelly Castle 4/1 Bet365 (guaranteed odds)
15.35 Carlisle - Ikemba 14/1 Bet365 (guaranteed odds)
16.10 Carlisle - Paco 4/1 Bet365 (guaranteed odds)
16.30 Fontwell - Isntshelovely 9/1 William Hill (guaranteed odds)
A day which could have been so different if Ikemba had managed to get up (beaten half a length in the end).
Thankfully Victor Daly won (got quite lucky actually) to show only a small loss for the day..
Italiano - UR - 12/1 SP
Victor Daly - 1st - 11/4 SP
Dunkelly Castle - 5th 7/2 SP
Ikemba - 2nd - 11/2 SP
Paco - 3rd - 10/3 SP
Isntshelovely - PU - 9/1 SP
Saturday, 14 March 2009
Ending the week up
Tuesday was a slight profit, Wednesday was a slight loss, Thursday was a great day and Friday was about level. Really can't complain, ending the week around £40 up.
Friday's three placed runners:
Nortonthorpe Lad 66-1 Return £8.75
The Midnight Club 22-1 £6.50
Baby Run 50-1 £6.75
And a winner in the last!
Oh Crick 11-1 £18
Can't wait for next year, and thanks to Paul Jones for helping me get some really nice priced selections/winners. Am surprised his email shortlist that he does doesn't seem to have been as successful. I must have got lucky interpreting his trends/ stats.
As for the "proper selections" another very poor week. There were no qualifiers on Friday or Saturday so at least that stemmed the flow of losers, although I know things will turn around for them soon!
Thursday, 12 March 2009
Cheltenham Selections Day 4
Anyway on to tomorrow's bets.
I'm just under £40 up for the week, so that's how much I'm staking to lose tomorrow. If I lose in every single race I'll be level which is great. Hopefully there'll be one or two returns though to give me a reasonable profit for the week, we'll see!
Triumph
Jumbo Rio 14-1 bluesq £1.50 each way
County Hurdle
Sesenta 28-1 stan james £0.75 each way
Farringdon 25-1 stan jamesl £0.75 each way
Nortonthorpe Lad 66-1 Sporting Bet £0.50 each way
Albert Bartlett
Picture in the Sky 80-1 Vcbet 0.50 each way
The Midnight Club 22-1 Stan James £1 each way
Thetwincamdrift 16-1 bet365 £1 each way 4 places
Alpha Ridge 8-1 bet365 £2 win
Diablo 150 - 1 Sporting Bet £0.50 each way
Gold Cup
Maddison Du Berlais 10/1 paddy power £3 win
Foxhunters
Amicelli 8-1 £1.50 win
Baby Run 50-1 stan james 0.50 each way
Chief Oscar 40-1 vcbet 0.50 each way
Ofarel D'Airy 25-1 stan james 0.50 each way
Proud Andees 50-1 vcbet 0.50 each way
Robbers Glen 33-1 vcbet 0.50 each way
You Do The Math 33-1 bet365 0.50 each way 4places
Martin Pipe
Penn da Benn 12-1 Paddy power £1.50 win
Big Eared Fran 9-2 bet365 £2 win
Hangover 14-1 totesport £1 each way 5 places
Little Shilling 16-1 paddy power £1 each way
Oscatello 25-1 paddy power £0.75 each way
Grand Annual
Valain 20-1 betfred 0.75 each way
Oh Crick 11-1 boyle sports £1.50 win
Poquelin 6-1 betfred £3 win
Pasco 10-1 paddy power £1.50 win
A really good day at Cheltenham
Big thanks to Paul Jones' book for steering me towards them.
Ended the day £39.54 up which considering my average stake was around the pathetic 50p/£1 mark is some going.
These are the successes:
Jewson:
£1 win Chapoturgeon (1st) - 8/1 guaranteed odds with vcbet
50p each way Crescent Island (3rd) - 40/1 -with bet365
Pertemps Final
50p each way Kayf Aramis (1st) - 33/1 Paddy Power
Stayers Hurdle
£1 each way Powerstation (3rd) 33-1 bet365
Festival Plate
50p each way Something Wells (1st) 33-1 ladbrokes
Kim Muir
50p each way Pretty Star (2nd) 25/1
Would have had a bit more had VCbet paid out on 5th place in the Freddie Williams race, with Cossack Dancer running really well at 100/1
Roll on tomorrow!
What a day so far - more on Punchestowns
I've put another fiver on Punchestowns at 7/2 because of it.
A bit more on Punchestowns
Away from Cheltenham... Day 3
We plough on though with:
Hexham 4.15 Ethel Briggs, 20/1 Bet365
Hexham 5.25 Rexmehead, 7/1 William Hill
Good luck all
Cheltenham Selections Day 3
I have therefore allowed myself just over £23 for each of these next two days. Obviously I'd like to think I'll collect a few quid back and break into profit, but am quite pleased with the discipline I've shown. I'm bringing in each way punts into the equation after all my big priced placed runners of the last couple of days.
These are my selections for Thursday. I have an extra £5 thanks to the excellent beat victor competition on vcbet, which I will use as a win single on punchestowns (which by the way I think is an oustanding price at more than 3/1). In fact I'm taking on the two hot fancies, as I think Kasbah and Voy Por are both a tad too short.
Anyway here goes:
Jewson 1.30
Chapoturgeon 15/2 vcbet £1 win
Crescent Island 40/1 bet365 50p each way
Astrador 22/1 paddy power 50p each way
Auroras Encore 28/1 Bet365 50p each way
Pertemps Final 2.05
P'Tit Fute 12/1 Ladbrokes £1 win
Synchronised 10/1 Bet365 £1 win
Kayf Aramis 33/1 Paddy Power 50p each way
Ryanair 2.40
Tidal Bay 7/1 Stan James £2 win
Our Vic 15/2 stan james £1 win
Stayers Hurdle 3.20
PUNCHESTOWN 7-2 will hill £3.50 win (£5 win vcbet free bet)
Powerstation 33-1 bet365 £1 each way
Festival Plate 4.00
Akilak 22/1 paddy power 50p each way
Something Wells 33-1 ladbrokes 50p each way
Le Burf 33-1 bet365 50p each way
Cossack Dancer 80/1 vcbet 25p each way
Borara 80/1 sportingbet 25p each way
Kim Muir 4.40
Irish Raptor 25/1 bet365 50p each way
Le Duc 25/1 bet365 50p each way
Brooklyn Breeze 40/1 vcbet 30p each way
Warpath 50/1 stan james 25p each way
Alexanderthegreat 12/1 paddy power £1 win
Pretty Star 25/1 paddy power 50p each way
Good luck all
Wednesday, 11 March 2009
Tough day
As for the "proper" selections another three losers.
Petrovka came 5th at 14/1 sp
Dan Tucker came 8th at 5/1
Janet's delight came 6th at 15/2.
This run will end soon I'm sure!
Champion Chase
Well Chief at 9/2 with Stan James without the favourite, to win £7.50, stake - £1.66
Away from Cheltenham...Day 2
I very very rarely back two horses in the same race but in the 1.45 at Huntingdon I feel compelled to because of the big odds associated with the second horse.
Here are today's runners:
Huntingon 1.45 - Dan Tucker - 9-2 - Totesport
Huntingdon 1.45 - Petrovka - 17.03 - Betfair
Huntingdon 2.20 - Janet's Delight - 8-1 - Bet365
I feel this poor run's going to end soon and when it does the winnings will be dramatic, hopefully it'll be today.
Cheltenham selections Day 2
National Hunt Chase
Can't Buy Time 9-2 bet365 £2.71 win single (as is all the following)
Coe 9-1 bet365 1.49
Forest Leaves 10-1 bet365 1.36
Pangbourne 40-1 william hill 0.36
Wichita Lineman 9-1 sporting bet/ladbrokes 1.49
Ballymore Properties
Diamond Harry 9-2 paddy power £1.92
Junior 40-1 bet365 0.26
Knockkara Beau 20-1 bet365 0.50
Realt Dubh 28-1 stan james 0.36
RSA Chase
Casey Jones 14-1 stan james 0.60
Horner Woods 66-1 bet365 0.13
Killyglen 12-1 bet36 0.69
Champion Chase
No selection
Coral Cup
Mirage Dore 16-1 bet365 0.53
Great Endeavour 12-1 bet365 0.70
Gee Dee Nen 14-1 sportingbet 0.61
Fred Winter
Mr Thriller 14-1 paddy power 1.03
Simarian 40-1 ladbrokes 0.38
Saticon 20-1 bet365 0.73
Ski Sunday 20-1 paddy power 0.73
Ronaldo Des Mottes 12-1 paddy power 1.18
Giorgio Quercus 33-1 stan james 0.45
Alexander Severus 5-1 bet365 2.57
Indian Groom 33-1 bet365 0.45
Helium 40-1 ladbrokes 0.38
Tuesday, 10 March 2009
Today's results
Forpaddydeplasterer and Wichita Lineman doing the business today really well. Had another £1.02 on Wichita as well thanks to the bet365 offer of the channel 4 free bet next race thing.
Otherwise had a couple of seconds (Celestial Halo and United) as well. Nearly all my selections come from careful study of Paul Jones' excellent Cheltenham trends book, highly recommended.
In the end I'm up exactly £7! I do appreciate by the way this is a pathetic amount, but I'm just trying not to spend with the baby coming. It'll probably mean I have a good few winners and by Friday PM will be wishing I had done my usual decent punts but that's sods law for you!
As for the other "proper" bets, I am up to 24 losers in a row - a record and a quite sickening run.
Bulas Boy was backed into 15/2 before unseating before the second fence(!!!!!!! is this run of ridiculous early mishaps going to end soon?!)
And Sands Rising went off at 22/1 before running a reasonable race to come 4th.
Just about to get stuck into studying for tomorrow, will post my selections either tonight or in the morning.
Away from Cheltenham...
Sedgefield 2.55 Bulas Boy 16/1 Boylesports
Sedgefield 4.15 - Sands Rising - 22/1 Betfred
Just about to leave for Cheltenham - good luck to all
Cheltenham selections Day 1
My aim is to make £7.50 per race, by dutching my bets on all my selections in each race. Obviously this isn't the quickest way to riches but just want good steady progress through the week (or at least see if it's possible!). Because I put these on last night I decided to only use bookies with guaranteed best odds, in case any of these drift like mad. I will miss getting involved in the jungle of the betting ring with decent cash, but it will have to wait until next year.
In recent years I've had pretty good success at Cheltenham. Captain Cee Bee won me £330 for a tenner at 33-1 antepost before in the Supreme Novice last year, while when Parlashan got up to win one of the big handicaps (forget which one) the year before it secured a nice exacta paying about £300. Anyway not such big ambitions this year, little and often all the way!
Supreme Novice
Kempes - 10-1 - bet365 - £1.10
Torpichen - 11-2 - bet365 £1.86
Aachen 16-1 - bet365 £0.71
Red Maloney 12-1 paddy power £0.93
total staked: 4.61
Arkle
Forpaddydeplaster 10-1 - bet365 - £1.02
Made in Taipan 25-1 - bet365 - £0.43
Tatenan 4-1 - bet365 - £2.24
total staked: £3.69
Will Hill Chase
Cailinn Alainn 12-1 bet365 £0.83
Possol 9-1 paddy power £1.08
Wichita Lineman 7-1 paddy power £1.35
Total staked : £3.26
Champion Hurdle
Ashkazar 20-1 - bet365 0.36
Celestial Halo 9-1 stan james 0.75
Ebazayan 66-1 bet365 0.11
Binocular 15-8 paddy power 4.00
Sentry Duty 28-1 paddy power 0.26
Jered 33-1 - bet365 0.22
Total staked £5.70
Cross Country
L'Ami 9-4 bet365
Garde Champetre 7-2 paddy power
Haven't worked out what to do with these two as I don't think there's much value on either so may just leave that race.
The Mares Hurdle
Dansimar 22-1 bet365 0.47
United 9-2 paddy power 1.98
Gaspara 22-1 bet365 0.47
Sweetheart 28-1 bet365 0.38
Gallileo Figaro 150-1 stan james 0.10
Total staked: £3.40
Anyway good luck all, will post my usual "proper" selections later.
Monday, 9 March 2009
Taunton 2.20 Rock Exhibition PU - 4-1 sp
Plumpton 3.30 Mr Prickle 6th 8-1 sp
Taunton 4.20 Winchester Red 5th 8-1 sp
Had an excellent session earlier form studying for tomorow. Will post my selections either later or in the morning. Am going tomorrow, and Friday and going to enjoy the other days in front of the telly - can't wait!
Three selections today
I'm on:
Taunton 2.20 Rock Exhibition 6-1 Bet365
Plumpton 3.30 Mr Prickle 8-1 Totesport
Taunton 4.20 Winchester Red 15-2 Sporting Bet
Good luck to them all, I just hope they all get past the first fence.
That was a week to forget
Yesterday's selection ran a bit of a stinker to come 5th (SP 9/2) , will be looking to turn things around soon!
Sunday, 8 March 2009
One runner today
Today just the one as well:
3.15 Market Rasen; Thistlecraft - 9/1 with Bet365. I should have had 10/1 with Coral but their pathetic deposit system kept crashing and I didn't have time to phone to chase them up.
At least that means the horse is almost certain to win!
Friday, 6 March 2009
Today's selections
And sadly both were beaten, including ANOTHER falling at the first fence!!!!!!
Anyway they were:
Leicester 3.05 - Sarah's Gift, 9/2 with William Hill (SP 5/1) FELL
Leicester 4.15 - Gun's of Love, 6/1 with Stan James (SP 5/1) 5th
Not a happy month so far, but at least there're plenty more days in it left!
Thursday, 5 March 2009
What the hell is going on
Ok so this week I have had an 8-1 shot fall when clear two out.
Two horses fall or unseat at the very first fence..
And then today. The Maystone is beaten in the very last stride, in a photo, at 20/1. Not seen the race but every indication on the commentary was that he had it in the bag until the last moment. (SP16-1)
Racing Gods - what are you doing to me?!!
The other ran no sort of race. (SP16-1)
Signing off, pretty sick at the moment, but will be back again tomorrow.
Two huge priced selections
3.35 Wincanton - Baby Car - 16-1 with Bet365
4.20 Carlisle - The Maystone - 20-1 with Paddy Power.
As ever both £6.24 win singles. At these sort of prices it's always quite tempting to do them each way but my research has found it's far more profitable to go for win only.
Wednesday, 4 March 2009
Unseating at the first
Today's results:
Fontwell 4.00 - Le Briar Soul - UR - 5/2f SP
It was heavily punted all day, so the value was had again, although it does help if the selection races for more than 45 seconds...
Tuesday, 3 March 2009
A day to forget
Anyway here are the results:
Newcastle 2.50 - Tuatara Bay 8th - 10-1 SP
Exeter 3.00 Somerset Rose - PU - 16-1 SP
Exeter 5.00 Dreams Jewel - 4th - 6-1 SP
It's just occurred to me that this time next week we'll be looking back to day one of Cheltenham. It's almost here - can't wait!
Three today
Newcastle 2.50 - Tuatara Bay 10-1 - with Sporting Bet
Exeter 3.00 - Somerset Rose - 25-1 with Bet365 (best odds guaranteed)
Exeter 5.00 Dreams Jewel - 10-1 with William Hill (best odds guaranteed)
Monday, 2 March 2009
"Would have romped home but for falling two out"
Risk would have romped home but for falling two out when ten lengths clear. (Today's Racing Post).
That set the context of the day sadly, with no winners today. In fact it was a bad day "value" wise, how the hell Risk was allowed to drift to 8-1 before running really well I'll never know, there was obviously a late move for something else. Later we had a faller at the first and a well fancied sort beaten less than a length into third.
Anyway here are the results:
Stratford 3.00 - Risk - Fell - 8-1 SP
Stratford 4.00 - Farmers Cross - Fell (at the first) 10-1 SP
Stratford 4.30 - Captivate - 11th - 33-1 SP
Stratford 5.00 - Rash Moment - 3rd 3-1F SP
A busy day
Anyway, these are today's selections none the less:
Stratford 3.00 - Risk - 7-2 with Paddy Power
Stratford 4.00 - Farmers Cross - 8-1 with Sporting Bet
Stratford 4.30 - Captivate - 28-1 with Sporting Bet
Stratford 5.00 - Rash Moment - 5-1 with Bet365
As ever (until the bank reaches a new high) all win singles of £6.24.
Good luck to them all, particularly Captivate -now that would boost the bank!
Sunday, 1 March 2009
February a winning month
The three selections were all beaten yesterday sadly.
2.20 at Kempton - Double Obsession - 3rd - SP 13-2
2.50 at Kempton - Hello My Lovely - 4th - SP 6-1
3.45 at Newbury - Procas De Thaix - 4th - SP 7-2
So again I had the value on each of the selections, but not a winner in sight unfortunately.
No runners today (Sunday), so roll on tomorrow!

