Back in action

The last week's been quiet period for us, with racing seriously hampered by abandonments, and when there's been some racing on, nothing for us to quite get involved with.

Today though, we had two go for us.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

1.55         Uttoxeter              Marleno                        1pt                          9/1 Paddy Power/BetVictor/Boyles/Stan James 10/1 Bet365/Skybet
3.55         Taunton                Umustbejoking              1pt                          12/1 + generally inc. 14/1 Coral/BetVictor/Boyles/SportingBet 20/1 Stan James

Marleno was given a patient ride from the back, and eased through looking a big danger two out, trading at 6/4 in running. A slow jump at the last didn't help and that, perhaps coupled with his big weight, put paid to his chances as he faded towards the finish, though still managed to keep on for a placed finish in third.

Umustbejoking went on to be weak in the markets so we feared the worst, and so it transpired, with the 4yo folding tamely after making the running for much of the contest. 

Summary of Results:

Marleno, 3rd/11, 10/1 --- 9/1

Umustbejoking, PU/8, 14/1 --- 20/1

A busy day of action in store for the last day of the month tomorrow, and hopefully we can end November on a high.

Friday update

We've had three run for us since our last update. We'll start on Tuesday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

3.10        Folkestone            Reste Jeune                    1pt                           5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Lads/PaddyPower/Totesport/Boyles/Betfred/BlueSq

Reste Jeune was quite nicely supported into an SP of 4/1, but was well beaten.

On Wednesday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

3.40        Hexham                Ruff Diamond                1pt                          7/1 generally 15/2 Bet365/SportingBet 8/1 Totesport

Ruff Diamond went off at 5/1 and was there or thereabouts before making a mistake three out and weakening out of it soon after.

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

3.10        Market Rasen         Capisci                        1pt                          11/2 Hills/Bet365/PP/Boyles/Skybet  6/1Totesport/Betfred 13/2 Stan James/SportingBet

Capisci went off at 7/1 and ran well for a long time, sharing the lead with the eventual winner, before being a bit tapped for toe as they swung for home. But Liam Treadwell's mount came again and was staying on well before making a critical mistake at the last, which handed the race to Pickworth. He was perhaps unlikely to have rallied well enough to get up, but a flying jump at the last would have made things interesting. 

We had no selections today (Friday).

Summary of Results:

Tuesday 20th November 2012:

Reste Jeune, PU/6, 11/2 --- 4/1

Wednesday 21st November 2012:

Ruff Diamond, 7th/7, 15/2 -- 5/1

Thursday 22nd November 2012:

Capisci, 2nd/5, 6/1 --- 7/1

On to the weekend! Hope you have a good one.

Results Update

Time for a look back at the last few days, which have been pretty quiet all told. We had no selections on Friday and Saturday, and then yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

2.40         Fontwell                Call at Midnight            1pt                           9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills/Bet365/BetVictor/Totesport/Boyles&others

Call At Midnight went off a quite nicely backed 7/1 shot, but when things got serious began to struggle quite quickly, ending well back.

Then today we had a couple at Plumpton:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

2.50         Plumpton              Sun Quest                    1pt                           5/1 Bet365/Hills/BetVictor/Boyles 11/2 Totesport/BetFred/Skybet
3.20         Plumpton              Laughing Game            1pt                           6/1 generally 13/2 Coral/Stan James
 

We'll never really know, but we may have missed out on one with Sun Quest. Despite not having won for more than 2 1/2 years, he continued to be supported right down to 7/2 at SP, but was going along quite nicely when he fell at the third hurdle.

Laughing Game came second of four runners half an hour later, after drifting to 9/1 at the off. She made a series of mistakes but was still there pitching as they turned for home, only to be readily outgunned by the winner.

Summary of Results:

Sunday 18th November 2012:

Call At Midnight, 8th/8, 10/1 --- 7/1

Monday 19th November 2012:

Sun Quest, F/9, 11/2 --- 7/2

Laughing Game, 2nd/4, 13/2 --- 9/1

Things still looking very healthy for the month and we look to see if we can get back to winning ways tomorrow.

Quiet couple of days

Not much to report on from the last couple of days, with one well backed selection yesterday not managing to make it three winners on the bounce for us, and then no picks today.

So just the one to look back on, yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40         Exeter                   Quix                             1pt                             9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Hills/Bluesq/Stan James/SportingBet

Bob Buckler's 6yo was well backed all day, going off 11/4 favourite in the end. Sadly the horse didn't really follow the script with the distress signals being sent out all too early, and he eventually fell when beaten three out. A lot of confidence behind this one, and if none the worse for wear, perhaps there's reason to think more should be expected in the coming weeks/months.

Summary of Result:

14th November 2012

Quix, F/10, 5/1 --- 11/4

And then  despite a few of interest today, we had no selections and we look forward to the Open meeting at Cheltenham starting tomorrow.

Good to be Cranky

A terrific winner today, with Cranky Corner winning at Lingfield at 12/1. He was our only selection, and continues what's been a really good November so far.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.00        Lingfield                 Cranky Corner             1pt                           10/1 generally 11/1 BetVictor 12/1 Hills/Stan James

This was an interesting selection, and we felt the money around this morning was highly informative, and so it proved. It was Cranky Corner's first run for a new trainer, Helen Nelmes, and first run for more than six months. This was also a horse who had shown some cracking form in the past, notably when seventh in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham for Willie Mullins a few years ago. Things obviously hasn't all gone to plan since for various trainers, including Jonjo O'Neill,  but he's shown definite levels of ability and today off a good mark and clearly showing something at home, he was nicely supported this morning to go well. An interesting market pre-race, the layers seemed determined to get stuck into him, but he came back again at the end to have a BSP of 13.57, and an SP of 12/1. 

In any case, as for the race, he was always travelling nicely for Sam Thomas, and made smooth progress to lead coming to the last fence, and always had enough in the tank to win by a neck, great stuff and you just wonder if there may be a bit more to come if the handicapper isn't too harsh on him. 

Summary of Result:

Cranky Corner, 1st/8, 12/1 --- 12/1

We're 20pts up now for November, and long may this current run continue.

Positivity wins the day

A good winner today to kick the working week off in the best possible style, with Whats Up Woody winning well at Carlisle, rewarding a really strong, positive ride by Wilson Renwick.

He was our only selection:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

1.55         Carlisle                 Whats Up Woody          1pt                         9/2 Lads/Totesport&others 5/1 Hills/BetVictor/StanJames

And Renwick gave him a peach of a ride, always up there, he kicked on nice and early and made it a real test, with the horse responding beautifully for him, after going off a nicely backed 4/1. The John Wade trained 7yo jumped really well and put in a lovely couple of leaps late on to help keep challengers at bay, in the end winning by a length and a half. Good to see, and pushes November further into profit. 

Summary of Result:

Whats Up Woody, 1st/4, 5/1 --- 4/1

After seven selections for November, we're eight points up, a decent start to the month and we look forward to trying to build on it in the coming days.

Weekend update

In terms of selections, a quiet one for us, with just the one yesterday and nothing quite there today.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.15         Kelso                   Glaced Over                 1pt                           11/1+generally inc. 12/1 PP/Betfred 14/1 Bet365/Totesport/Betfred

Plenty of cash around for this one, with Raymond Shiels' 7yo going off at 5/1 after opening on track at 7/1. Sadly the support didn't prove justified on this occasion, with Glaced Over folding away tamely quite some way from home after leading in the early stages, before eventually falling at the last hurdle.

Summary of Result

10th November 2012:

Glaced Over, F/8, 14/1 --- 5/1

Here's to a good week ahead.

The importance of beating BSP

We hope you're well. A couple of points have been handed back in the last couple of days thanks to two well backed selections finishing unplaced. It's a strange game this one. On Wednesday we had Bravo Bravo who started with a Betfair Starting Price of 12.78, 42% longer than the 8/1 we advised at in the morning - who hacked up, despite our overall poor record with those selections of ours which drift by that amount. And then, since Wednesday, we have had two selections which have tightened up nicely in the market. Mountskip (11/2 into 4.27 (bsp)) and then, today, Duke Of Ormond (6/1 into 3.56(bsp)), and both ran unplaced.

Mountskip shortened in price by 34.31%, Duke Of Ormond by 49.1%.

Some interesting figures here (if you're into this sort of thing). Since January 1st, 2010 to Aug 31st 2012, these are the results of all horses of ours which went off at 34% or more shorter than we advised at:

215 bets
51 wins (23.72% strike rate)
Profit: +265.2pts
ROI: 123.35%

So, in the context of these last three days, Bravo Bravo looks the better tip - after all, this was the horse which won (and won really well) - but if you ask us which bets we would like to run 500 times, well it's going to be our two losers. So, while we've dropped a couple of points since Wednesday, we feel very much on the right lines.

For what it's worth, here are our results broken down by some bracket of price shifts to BSP:

Reduction in price of 60%-85%:
24 bets
5 wins (20.83% s/r)
Profit: +48pts
ROI: +200%
(There were also another eight second placed finishers among these 24, and seven of those who didn't win traded odds-on in running.)

Reduction in price of 40%-59.99%
119 bets
24 wins (20.17%)
Profit: +102.25pts
ROI: +85.94%

Reduction in price of 20%-39.99%
316 bets
58 wins (18.35%)
Profit: +171.05pts
ROI: +54.13%

Reduction in price of 0% - 19.99%
429 bets
68 wins (15.85%)
Profit: +77.15pts
ROI: +17.15%

Increase in price of 0.01% - 19.99%
299 bets
39 wins (13.04%)
Profit: - 9.93pts
ROI: -3.35%

Increase in price of 20%-39.99%
213 bets
29 wins (13.62%)
Profit: +14.17pts
ROI: +6.94%

Increase in price of 40%-59.99%
121 bets
7 wins (5.78%)
Profit: -67.5pts
ROI: -55.75%

Increase in price of 60% or more
215 bets
13 wins (6.05%)
Profit: -110pts
ROI: -51.13%

In the past, we've had the odd subscriber express frustration when we talk about "getting the value" - "value doesn't pay the bills" I remember one emailing a while back, but these stats confirm really the importance (for us, anyway) of backing at bigger odds than a horse starts at. Interestingly, our picks can be up to 39.99% bigger at BSP and still be (marginally) profitable, but it's undoubtedly shown that our best results are from those horses which continue to shorten nicely all the way to the off - much like those horses from the last couple of days. Without any further ado let's have a quick look back at them.

On Thursday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 4.00         Musselburgh         Mountskip                      1pt                           11/2 + generally 6/1 Bet365/Totesport/Boyles/Betfred/SportingBet 7/1 Stan James

A few minutes after our email went out, Mountskip's price shortened rapidly, in much more of a dramatic way than we ever affect the market, so we can only put this down to the horse being a tip elsewhere after us. Either way, 11/2 was the best price available (with Bet Victor) ten minutes after our email was sent, although many members would have got 6 or 7/1. Either way, it was pleasing to see Rose Dobbin's 8yo backed into 3/1 at the off, on his first showing in nearly two years. Plenty expected then, and he nearly delivered, travelling beautifully with a couple of flights left to go, he traded at 1.25 in running but just as he was asked to go and win his race, he couldn't finish the job and in the end was run out of the places. He pulled a bit hard early on, and that probably didn't help. One which got away.

Then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10         Fontwell                Duke Of Ormond         1pt                          11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/BetVictor/Coral/Boyles/Sky/Stan James/Sportingbet

Another well backed sort, this giant 9yo was having his first start over hurdles for a good while, and went off a really well supported 5/2 shot. He was given a reminder early on, and was pushed along some way out, but he was still there with every chance as they came to the second last flight, but he didn't have enough in the tank and like Mountskip, finished out of the frame.

Summary of Results

Thursday 8th November 2012:

Mountskip, 5th/9, 11/2 --- 3/1

Friday 9th November 2012:

Duke Of Ormond, 5th/7, 6/1 --- 5/2

So on we go to tomorrow, have a great weekend, let's hope it's a profitable one.

Bravo, Bravo Bravo

A cracking winner today in the shape of Bravo Bravo at Chepstow. We've had to be quite patient waiting for the right opportunities since our restart, but it paid off today with Mark Gillard's 5yo winning in good style.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.15        Chepstow              Bravo Bravo                 1pt                           7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Bet Victor/Boylesports/Stan James 8/1 Totesport/Skybet/Betfred/Bluesq

And this was a pillar to post victory, with Tommy Phelan keeping his mount in the lead throughout and then decisively kicking for home four out to thrust Bravo Bravo clear. He made some really scratchy jumps in the closing straight, but still managed to win by more than two lengths and I think it's fair to say that if he'd have jumped better he'd have won by a good deal further, great stuff and a big well done (or should that be bravo) to connections.

Summary of Result

Bravo Bravo, 1st/8, 8/1 --- 8/1

Just a quick note about Bravo Bravo's BSP price - which was 12.78 (and he was matched at two or three points bigger than that just as the race started). Those who read our recent statistical summaries will know of the usual poor performance of horses which go off more than 2pts bigger at BSP from the advised price (strike rate of just over 6% - compared to 16.55% for those horses who go off no longer than 2pts larger) - but it just goes to show that horses of ours fairly weak just prior to the off can run big races, albeit it's not so common. It was an interesting exchange market just prior to the race actually, as Bravo Bravo was relatively solid, trading at around 8/1 for a good while right up to a minute or two before the off, but then drifted markedly, partly because of the sustained support for Noble Perk who opened at 4/1 and went off at 15/8. Not much more to be said really, just a word of warning that laying to recover stake at big prices can bite (albeit in this case returns of 8/1 of course would have dampened the loss somewhat). It's a strategy that over the long term could help strengthen profits, but it's certainly not without its dangers, and at present we are some way off making this "official" advice.

So we're six points up for the month, a good start since the break, and we look forward to seeing what tomorrow will bring.

Up and running!

We hope you had a good weekend. A pretty low-key start to our new season, with a couple of unplaced efforts and a non-runner, but it's great to be underway again and we're excited about the months ahead, and feeling extremely confident that the small tweaks we're making to our selection process will reap dividends.

A quick look back at the first few days then, starting last Thursday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

3.10         Statford                Rossmore Lad               1pt                         13/2 Bet365 7/1 Hills/Coral/BetVictor/Totesport &others 15/2 BlueSq/SkyBet

Who was sadly a non-runner.

Then on Friday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

1.50         Uttoxeter              Blackstone Vegas         1pt                           11/2 Hills/Lads/Bet365 &others 6/1 Sportingbet/Bluesq 13/2 Totesport

Derek Shaw's 6yo went off at 7/1, and didn't do much, going along nicely enough for a while but finding nothing when asked to improve, finshing sixth in the end.

Unusally for a Saturday we had no selections on the 3rd November.

And then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

3.10             Carlisle                   My Boy Paddy                      1pt                          5/1 Hills/Coral/Totesport/Bluesq/SkyBet/BetFred/Sportingbet
 
My Boy Paddy went off at 4/1 and was given a very patient ride by Sam Twiston-Davies, held up out the back, he began to creep into things before just being found a bit flat-footed when the action got serious and he was never able to challenge. He was nicely backed this morning, and could be one to keep an eye on going forward.

Summary of Results

Thursday 1st November

Rossmore Lad, NR

Friday 2nd November

Blackstone Vegas, 6th/11, 13/2 --- 7/1

Saturday 3rd November

No selections

Sunday 4th November

My Boy Paddy, 5th/9, 5/1 --- 4/1

Here's to a good week ahead!
 

Ready for action!

Well we're almost off again! It's been far too long since August 31st and we're chomping at the bit to get going! Our usual two month break is nearly over, and from November 1st we'll be up and away again.

If you'd like to join, you'll be very welcome of course. We have spaces at the moment in the service and excited about the small tweaks we'll be making to our selection process, which we are confident will reap serious rewards. 

We've spent quite some time analysing results, looking at all manner of different themes, and if you're interested in some of what we've found please click here - be warned it takes some getting through!

http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Analysis2.pdf

You can join us by heading here:

http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-nowpage/

Bank Holiday Update

We hope you've had a good Bank Holiday weekend, despite the weather (in most places) today!

It's good to be able to report a profitable update since our last report, about time too! Unfortunately we couldn't follow up yesterday's winner today, but let's hope for a strong end to August in the days ahead.

Unusually, we had no selections on Saturday and then yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.50        Yarm                   Highlife Dancer                        1pt                5-1+ inc 6-1 B365,VCBet, PP 7-1 S James

Mick Channon's 4yo won well, after starting at 6/1. Prominent throughout when he was asked to go and win his race he duly did, pushed out to the line, his 7th victory in 28 outings, not a bad strike rate at all - albeit this his first victory  for nearly a year (first in 13 attempts). If you missed the race and would like to see the closing stages, they're here: http://youtu.be/nOmvR-P5qGY

Then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00      Newc                   Foreign Rhythm                     1pt                            8-1+ inc 9-1 BFred,Tote,SJames,VCBet; 10-1B365
5.20      Rip                       Miss Ella Jade                        1pt                            9-2 general, 5-1B365,Sky,BSq

Foreign Rhythm went off at 9/1, and was in touch, travelling quite nicely for a good while, but couldn't really land a blow when asked for an effort and finished 5th.

Miss Ella Jade looked promising for a while, but while she comfortably finished in the places in third, she was quite some way behind the front two, after starting at 4/1.

Summary of Results

Saturday 25th August 2012

No selections

Sunday 26th August 2012

Highlife Dancer, 1st/9, 6/1 --- 6/1

Monday 27th August 2012

Foreign Rhythm, 5th/9, 10/1 --- 9/1
Miss Ella Jade, 3rd/9, 5/1 --- 4/1

So let's hope we can kick on now before the break, on to tomorrow.

Results Update

Quite how we haven't had a winner since our last results update is anyone's guess, with two selections getting turned over back to back after trading at around 1.10 in running. Practically the same odds, if not shorter, as seeing Frankel getting turned over twice in a row! Just sums things up at the moment really but we push on and look forward to better times ahead. They will come again, sooner or later, but there's no question it's tough at the moment.

First up, Tuesday, where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.55        Perth                     Toshi                             1pt                           9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Coral/PP/Boyles/SkyBet/Sporting Bet 11/2 Stan James

Toshi went off at 6/1, skipped clear of the field and was still going really nicely coming up to the last. He traded at 1.10 in running, but was joined by the favourite under an inspired Richard Johnson ride and was outgunned on the run-in.

Wednesday

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.15         Lingfield               Spiritual Art                  1pt                         11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/Totesport/Coral&others 13/2 Stan James

It may have been back on the level, but similarly to Toshi, we were caught close home after seemingly moving into an unassailable lead with Spiritual Art (6/1sp), but was just touched off in the last strides, after trading at 1.11. <Deep breath.>

Spiritual Art, 2nd/10, 6/1 --- 6/1

On to Thursday and we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.25         Ffos Las               Illysantachristina               1pt                       9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/PP 11/2 SportingBet
6.40         Folkestone           Serene Oasis                    1pt                       5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Totesport 6/1 Boyles
8.00         Cartmel                Knockans Breeze             1pt                       9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/Boyles

Illysantachristina was up there throughout, after going off at 4/1 but weakened before the last, finishing third.

Serene Oasis was nicely supported on course, going off at 4/1. Mick Channon's 3yo was held up, brought outside for a challenge and didn't have enough to get serious in the closing stages.

We knew our fate before the off with Knockans Breeze, who went off at 14/1 (21.09 at BSP) and never remotely looked like getting involved.

We didn't have any selections on Friday.

Summary of Results:

Tuesday, 21st August 2012:

Toshi, 2nd/6, 5/1 --- 6/1

Wednesday 22nd August 2012:

Spiritual Art, 2nd/10, 6/1 --- 6/1

Thursday 23rd August 2012:

Illysantachristina, 3rd/7, 5/1 --- 4/1
Serene Oasis, 4th/6, 11/2 --- 4/1
Knockans Breeze, 6th/7, 5/1 --- 14/1

Friday 24th August 2012:

No selections.

Results Catch Up

A look back at the last week or so:

Last Tuesday we had:
 

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

2.30        Bath                      Lobelia                          1pt                           8/1+generally 9/1 SkyBet Stan James
4.50        Ayr                       Majuro                          1pt                           7/1 Bet365/BetVictor/Totesport/PP&others
6.35        Yarmouth              Arabic                           1pt                           11/2 generally
8.20        Nottingham           Style And Panache         1pt                           11/2+generally 6/1 Coral 13/2 Hills

An annoying recent trend has been horses of our being slowly away - this was the case with Lobelia, who started a nicely backed 11/2 but blew the start and had to use energy to get back into the mix - it showed late on and Brian Meehan's 2yo filly faded away.

Majuro at Ayr was dropping down to 6 furlongs for the first time since May last year and ran well, but got headed inside the final furlong to finish second after starting at 9/2.

Arabic went off at 11/2 and was staying on well towards the end without ever quite having the pace to get there, beaten 1 1/2 lengths in fourth.

Style And Panache was unfortunately a non-runner.

Last Wednesday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

5.25         Beverley               Pinotage                        1pt                             5/1 generally 11/2 Totesport

Pinotage started at 4/1 and led going into the final furlong but couldn't hold off his pursuers, to finish fourth.

Thursday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

6.40         Stratford               Calypso Bay                 1pt                           7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/Coral/StanJames

Who went off a well supported 5/1 but was under pressure all too early and was well beaten.

On Friday we had:

 

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

2.10         Nottingham           Double Your Money     1pt                           5/1+ generally 11/2 Hills/Totesport/PP/Boyles&others 6/1 SportingBet
3.35         Newcastle            China Excels                  1pt                           5/1 Bet365/Coral 11/2 Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet/Stan James


Double Your Money went off at 13/2 and finished fifth, staying on, but not in dange of troubling the principles.

China Excels, Sue Smith's only flat runner, went on an almighty drift to 25/1 before being backed in again to 12/1 only to finish tailed off.

Satuday:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

3.15       Don                           Teds Brother                       1pt                  9-2+ inc 5s Sky, BFred,Tote, 6-1 B365

Ted's Brother was at least nicely supported, into 4/1 at SP but was held up and didn't have the pace to properly get involved.

We had no selections on Sunday and then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

6.00        Windsor                African Oil                    1pt                         13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Hills/Bet365 8/1 Coral/Skybet

African Oil (SP 13/2) was quite strong in the market on his second racecourse start and put in a big performance, always up there but going down to the favourite by half a length.
Summary of Results:

Tuesday 14th August:

Lobelia, 7th/7, 8/1 --- 11/2
Majuro, 2nd/8, 7/1 --- 9/2
Arabic, 4th/8, 11/2 --- 11/2
Style And Panache NR

Wednesday 15th August:

Pinotage, 4th/10, 5/1 --- 4/1

Thursday 16th August: 

Calypso Bay, 9th/9, 8/1 --- 5/1

Summary of Results:

Friday 17th August

Double Your Money, 5th/11, 11/2 --- 13/2
China Excels, 10th/10th, 11/2 --- 12/1

Saturday 18th August

Ted's Brother, 5/1 --- 4/1

Sunday 19th August

No selections

Monday 20th August

African Oil, 2nd/11, 7/1 --- 13/2

Dreadful month so far, but it won't take much to turn things around so let's hope we get a good day tomorrow. 

Results update

A quick recap looking back at our four selections over the last four days, safe to say a forgettable few days.

On Friday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.10        Brighton                Penang Cita                   1pt                          8/1+generally inc. 17/2 VCBet 10/1 SportingBet 12/1 Stan James

Penang Cita went off at at 8/1 and found very little when asked for an effort, finishing well behind.

On Saturday it was the turn of:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10          Redcar                 Fred Willetts                 1pt                          8/1+generally inc. 17/2 Hills 9/1 Skybet 10/1 Stan James

Fred Willetts (9/1 SP) was there or thereabouts when asked for an effort, but gradually weakened out of it.

We didn't have a selection on Sunday, and then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20        Ffos Las                 Phluke                         1pt                          12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Skybet 16/1 Coral
4.20        Ffos Las                 Belle Bayardo             1pt                           7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Totesport/Stan James

Phluke went off at 14/1 and drifted to much bigger on the exchanges, and ran accordingly.

Belle Bayardo (6/1sp) ran keenly before gradually weakening out of things in a most disappointing fashion an hour later.

Summary of Results:

Friday 10th August 2012:

Penang Cita, 8th/9, 8/1 --- 8/1

Saturday 11th August 2012:

Fred Willetts, 8th/14, 8/1 --- 9/1

Sunday 12th August 2012:

No selections

Monday 13th August 2012:

Phluke, 8th/9, 12/1 --- 14/1
Belle Bayardo, 5th/7, 7/1 --- 6/1

Thursday

Well it's a good job the Olympics is doing a good job to keep spirit's up! A frustrating day, with another second placed finish, and two others for whom things perhaps could have been different if they'd have started better. 

We had:

TTIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.30         Yarmouth             Akula                            1pt                          5/1+generally 11/2 SkyBet
5.40         Sandown              Chorister Choir             1pt                          10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Lads/BetVictor&others 12/1 Bet365/Coral/PP/Totesport
8.00         Chepstow             Loyal N Trusted           1pt                          9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads&others 11/1 Hills/Totesport/Betfred

Akula travelled really well for a long time in the last at Yarmouth, going odds-on in running, but was in the end out-gunned into second, after starting a well backed 11/4.

Chorister Choir, on her racecourse debut was also strong in the market, but she fluffed the start and ran very green early on before staying on nicely under a considerate ride, she'll probably be winning before too long and it's just a shame it didn't happen today. She went off at 15/2.

On an excellent day for value for our bets, Loyal N Trusted was also well backed, going off at 6/1, but also made a hash of the start. He got back into things before just not having enough left in the tank in the closing stages despite looking a big danger with about a furlong to go (traded at evens).

Summary of Results:

9th August 2012
Akula, 2nd/9, 5/1 --- 11/4
Chorister Choir, 5th/9, 12/1 --- 15/2
Loyal N Trusted, 5th/13, 11/1 --- 6/1

Results update

Well a decent day today for those who like to play e/w doubles, but for us win-only backers disappointingly nothing back.

We had no selections on Monday so our latest results summary starts yesterday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

6.35         Ripon                     Teetotal                      1pt                            9/2 + generally inc. 5/1 Totesport/PP/Boyles/BetFred/Bluesq

Teetotal went off at 7/2 after being a bit restless in the stalls, and slow leaving them. Nigel Tinkler's colt did make some ground, but could never quite get close enough to the leaders, a bit one paced towards the finish, and ended fourth, giving some promise for the future.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.10         Newcastle             Brave Battle                 1pt                          9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills 11/1 Coral

7.20         Yarmouth              Roundelay                   1pt                            9/2 +generally inc. 5/1 Totesport/StanJames/Skybet

Brave Battle was written off by the ATR pundit pre-race, but ran pretty well after going off at 7/1, keeping on in third place, albeit a little bit back from the leaders.

Roundelay went down by 3/4 length in a driving finish after a bit of a troubled run, checked for room a couple of times, she bravely stayed on but was just collared by a fast finisher, after going off a well backed 11/4.

Summary of Results:

Tuesday 7th August 2012

Teetotal, 4th/6, 5/1 --- 7/2

Wednesday 8th August 2012

Brave Battle, 3rd/8, 10/1 --- 7/1
Roundelay, 2nd/6, 9/2 --- 11/4

A frustrating spell, to the backdrop of what's proving a brilliant Olympics - hopefully some of that feel-good spirit will rub off on our picks between now and Sunday and we get one or two decent winners! 

Weekend update

What a performance from Usain Bolt tonight, brilliant action!

In terms of our selections, not a lot to report on since Friday, with today's meeting at Chester abandoned after the third race, depriving us of a runner today, and just two other selections to look back on.

On Friday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.50         Newmarket          Daruband                      1pt                           11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/PP/Bluesq 7/1 Coral/Stan James

Daruband ran well for a long time, travelling comfortably and going odds on in running as things started to get serious, but unfortunately he seemed to run out of juice and ended up finishing 6th, after starting at 13/2.

On Saturday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00        Doncaster             Fulgur                            1pt                           5/1 generally 11/2 SportingBet

Well the Racing Post analysis called Fulgur's showing "pleasing enough" - well not quite pleasing enough for us! Going off at 11/2 he was held up towards the back and made up some ground quite nicely, before things flattened out and he finished back in 9th on his first start in almost a year.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.15         Chester                Green Mitas                   1pt                         11/1 Hills/Lads 12/1 Bet365/Coral 14/1 Totesport/SkyBet/Betfred/Stan James

And we never got to see him in action with a thunderstorm and heavy rain forcing racing to unfortunately be abandoned after the third race.

Summary of Results:

Friday August 3rd:

Daruband, 6th/12, 6/1 --- 13/2

Saturday August 4th:

Fulgur, 9th/11, 5/1 --- 11/2

So there we are, hopefully this sporadic heavy rain will soon clear away and we get a good week of racing in the week ahead, with nice settled ground; you can but hope!

July Review

First of all, just to say we had no selections today, so August remains 4.45pts to the good so far, but for now let's head straight into our review for July.


We think it's probably fair to say that July's been our most disappointing month of 2012 so far. We started strongly, 14pts to the good on the 11th of the month, and continuing our strong form of May and June.

But as the racing gods have a habit of doing, they reminded us that this game is not all plain sailing and wallop! we get hit with our worst losing run since proofing our results began in January 2010. 30 selections failing to get their heads in front in a row, beating the previous "record" of 28. Statistically - and over the course of thousands more bets - our worst  run is expected to be 48.9. Basically we know these will come along every now and then at the odds we play at and it's why we have to ensure we maintain good bank discipline. But while sensible staking relative to our betting banks can make us more relaxed through trying times, it's still extremely disappointing when these runs come along. At least August started well yesterday and we can only hope for an immediate correction!

Let's have a look at the stats:

Bets: 45
Wins: 3 (6.67%)
2nds: 3 (6.67%)
3rds: 6 (7.14%)
Placed total: 12 (26.67%)
Average odds taken: 7.18/1
Average SP: 6.73/1
Average win odds: 9.33/1
Profit/Loss: -15.15pts
Return On Investment: -32.61%

Given the poor win strike-rate at 6.67%, and the losing run until Majestic Manannan went in on Sunday, it's something of a bright spot that we "only" lost 15.15pts in the month.

This is thanks to the fact that our average win odds were a decent 9.33/1 (12/1, 11/1 and 5/1). In fact, only backing our selections at 10/1 or more this month, would have returned a 14pt profit from ten picks. This theme of our biggest priced selections outperforming our shorter priced picks in terms of return on investment is one which refuses to go away and has been the case now since proofing began in 2010.

We are very closely analysing this information, including a thorough examination of field sizes to prices. For example, 10/1+shots have a good overall record, but we also want to find out if 8/1 shots, for example, have a statistically significant high level of success in, say, smaller sized fields. Ours is a system based approach, purely following tried and tested methodical methods without room for sentiment, and we will do nothing rash, but we certainly have food for thought and perhaps come the start of November, following our break through September and October we could come out firing with a different mind-set and potentially more selective approach when it comes to our selections, please watch this space.

Lovely Lady

A good winner tonight in the shape of Links Drive Lady at Leicester to get the month off to a decent start. Let's hope we can build on it after a frustrating couple of weeks or so.

Let's start yesterday, where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.40        Beverley                Dean Iarracht                          1pt                                      7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Totesport/PP/Betfred
6.50        Worcester             Get It On                                    1pt                                     9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Coral

Dean Iarracht went off at 13/2 and stayed on strongly from the rear to finish second, seven lengths clear of third, but sadly a further seven lengths behind the winner who had flown. A good effort though from Tracy Waggott's genuine 6yo, who always seems to run well at Beverley.

Get It On was nicely backed into 3/1 but was disappointing, although was staying on a bit at the finish.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.20         Goodwood          Bint Youmzain                        0.5pt                         10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Coral/BetVictor 12/1 Bluesq
8.15         Leicester              Links Drive Lady                     1pt                            5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills
   
Bint Youmzain was quite nicely backed into 8/1, but never showed at all in her maiden race at Goodwood for Mick Channon, surely more was expected.

Links Drive Lady (4/1sp) got the month going tonight, winning for the first time in 19 attempts, although she had been running very consistently and placed on numerous occasions. Today was the day for her though, and although she seemed a touch outpaced halfway through the contest she quickened up really well to win going away. If you missed it, you can see a recording of the race here: http://youtu.be/E4_UichVIaI

Summary of Results:

July 31st 2012:

Dean Iarracht, 2nd/11, 8/1 --- 13/2
Get It On, 3rd/5, 9/2 --- 3/1

August 1st 2012:

Bint Youmzain, 15th/16, 11/1 --- 8/1

Links Drive Lady, 1st/14, 4.95/1 --- 4/1

A quick word on Links Drive Lady's prices for recording purposes - hopefully quite a few members got bigger than the 4.95/1 which Hills returned - their r4 rules meant that 10p in the £ was deducted because of two 12/1 withdrawals at about 7pm tonight.. Pretty annoying really. Also, Bet365 weren't priced up for some reason when the selections went out, and when they returned they actually went 13/2 for a good while - really 13/2 was the best price available ten minutes after our email went out (how we settle our results), but as plenty of members would have taken the 11/2 with Hills it seems a little unfair to try to claim that bigger price, so we won't.

Anyway, nice to get another winner, the second in the space of a few days and let's hope we get plenty more in the month ahead!