Results update

A quick recap looking back at our four selections over the last four days, safe to say a forgettable few days.

On Friday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.10        Brighton                Penang Cita                   1pt                          8/1+generally inc. 17/2 VCBet 10/1 SportingBet 12/1 Stan James

Penang Cita went off at at 8/1 and found very little when asked for an effort, finishing well behind.

On Saturday it was the turn of:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10          Redcar                 Fred Willetts                 1pt                          8/1+generally inc. 17/2 Hills 9/1 Skybet 10/1 Stan James

Fred Willetts (9/1 SP) was there or thereabouts when asked for an effort, but gradually weakened out of it.

We didn't have a selection on Sunday, and then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20        Ffos Las                 Phluke                         1pt                          12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Skybet 16/1 Coral
4.20        Ffos Las                 Belle Bayardo             1pt                           7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Totesport/Stan James

Phluke went off at 14/1 and drifted to much bigger on the exchanges, and ran accordingly.

Belle Bayardo (6/1sp) ran keenly before gradually weakening out of things in a most disappointing fashion an hour later.

Summary of Results:

Friday 10th August 2012:

Penang Cita, 8th/9, 8/1 --- 8/1

Saturday 11th August 2012:

Fred Willetts, 8th/14, 8/1 --- 9/1

Sunday 12th August 2012:

No selections

Monday 13th August 2012:

Phluke, 8th/9, 12/1 --- 14/1
Belle Bayardo, 5th/7, 7/1 --- 6/1

Thursday

Well it's a good job the Olympics is doing a good job to keep spirit's up! A frustrating day, with another second placed finish, and two others for whom things perhaps could have been different if they'd have started better. 

We had:

TTIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.30         Yarmouth             Akula                            1pt                          5/1+generally 11/2 SkyBet
5.40         Sandown              Chorister Choir             1pt                          10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Lads/BetVictor&others 12/1 Bet365/Coral/PP/Totesport
8.00         Chepstow             Loyal N Trusted           1pt                          9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads&others 11/1 Hills/Totesport/Betfred

Akula travelled really well for a long time in the last at Yarmouth, going odds-on in running, but was in the end out-gunned into second, after starting a well backed 11/4.

Chorister Choir, on her racecourse debut was also strong in the market, but she fluffed the start and ran very green early on before staying on nicely under a considerate ride, she'll probably be winning before too long and it's just a shame it didn't happen today. She went off at 15/2.

On an excellent day for value for our bets, Loyal N Trusted was also well backed, going off at 6/1, but also made a hash of the start. He got back into things before just not having enough left in the tank in the closing stages despite looking a big danger with about a furlong to go (traded at evens).

Summary of Results:

9th August 2012
Akula, 2nd/9, 5/1 --- 11/4
Chorister Choir, 5th/9, 12/1 --- 15/2
Loyal N Trusted, 5th/13, 11/1 --- 6/1

Results update

Well a decent day today for those who like to play e/w doubles, but for us win-only backers disappointingly nothing back.

We had no selections on Monday so our latest results summary starts yesterday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

6.35         Ripon                     Teetotal                      1pt                            9/2 + generally inc. 5/1 Totesport/PP/Boyles/BetFred/Bluesq

Teetotal went off at 7/2 after being a bit restless in the stalls, and slow leaving them. Nigel Tinkler's colt did make some ground, but could never quite get close enough to the leaders, a bit one paced towards the finish, and ended fourth, giving some promise for the future.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.10         Newcastle             Brave Battle                 1pt                          9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills 11/1 Coral

7.20         Yarmouth              Roundelay                   1pt                            9/2 +generally inc. 5/1 Totesport/StanJames/Skybet

Brave Battle was written off by the ATR pundit pre-race, but ran pretty well after going off at 7/1, keeping on in third place, albeit a little bit back from the leaders.

Roundelay went down by 3/4 length in a driving finish after a bit of a troubled run, checked for room a couple of times, she bravely stayed on but was just collared by a fast finisher, after going off a well backed 11/4.

Summary of Results:

Tuesday 7th August 2012

Teetotal, 4th/6, 5/1 --- 7/2

Wednesday 8th August 2012

Brave Battle, 3rd/8, 10/1 --- 7/1
Roundelay, 2nd/6, 9/2 --- 11/4

A frustrating spell, to the backdrop of what's proving a brilliant Olympics - hopefully some of that feel-good spirit will rub off on our picks between now and Sunday and we get one or two decent winners! 

Weekend update

What a performance from Usain Bolt tonight, brilliant action!

In terms of our selections, not a lot to report on since Friday, with today's meeting at Chester abandoned after the third race, depriving us of a runner today, and just two other selections to look back on.

On Friday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.50         Newmarket          Daruband                      1pt                           11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/PP/Bluesq 7/1 Coral/Stan James

Daruband ran well for a long time, travelling comfortably and going odds on in running as things started to get serious, but unfortunately he seemed to run out of juice and ended up finishing 6th, after starting at 13/2.

On Saturday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00        Doncaster             Fulgur                            1pt                           5/1 generally 11/2 SportingBet

Well the Racing Post analysis called Fulgur's showing "pleasing enough" - well not quite pleasing enough for us! Going off at 11/2 he was held up towards the back and made up some ground quite nicely, before things flattened out and he finished back in 9th on his first start in almost a year.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.15         Chester                Green Mitas                   1pt                         11/1 Hills/Lads 12/1 Bet365/Coral 14/1 Totesport/SkyBet/Betfred/Stan James

And we never got to see him in action with a thunderstorm and heavy rain forcing racing to unfortunately be abandoned after the third race.

Summary of Results:

Friday August 3rd:

Daruband, 6th/12, 6/1 --- 13/2

Saturday August 4th:

Fulgur, 9th/11, 5/1 --- 11/2

So there we are, hopefully this sporadic heavy rain will soon clear away and we get a good week of racing in the week ahead, with nice settled ground; you can but hope!

July Review

First of all, just to say we had no selections today, so August remains 4.45pts to the good so far, but for now let's head straight into our review for July.


We think it's probably fair to say that July's been our most disappointing month of 2012 so far. We started strongly, 14pts to the good on the 11th of the month, and continuing our strong form of May and June.

But as the racing gods have a habit of doing, they reminded us that this game is not all plain sailing and wallop! we get hit with our worst losing run since proofing our results began in January 2010. 30 selections failing to get their heads in front in a row, beating the previous "record" of 28. Statistically - and over the course of thousands more bets - our worst  run is expected to be 48.9. Basically we know these will come along every now and then at the odds we play at and it's why we have to ensure we maintain good bank discipline. But while sensible staking relative to our betting banks can make us more relaxed through trying times, it's still extremely disappointing when these runs come along. At least August started well yesterday and we can only hope for an immediate correction!

Let's have a look at the stats:

Bets: 45
Wins: 3 (6.67%)
2nds: 3 (6.67%)
3rds: 6 (7.14%)
Placed total: 12 (26.67%)
Average odds taken: 7.18/1
Average SP: 6.73/1
Average win odds: 9.33/1
Profit/Loss: -15.15pts
Return On Investment: -32.61%

Given the poor win strike-rate at 6.67%, and the losing run until Majestic Manannan went in on Sunday, it's something of a bright spot that we "only" lost 15.15pts in the month.

This is thanks to the fact that our average win odds were a decent 9.33/1 (12/1, 11/1 and 5/1). In fact, only backing our selections at 10/1 or more this month, would have returned a 14pt profit from ten picks. This theme of our biggest priced selections outperforming our shorter priced picks in terms of return on investment is one which refuses to go away and has been the case now since proofing began in 2010.

We are very closely analysing this information, including a thorough examination of field sizes to prices. For example, 10/1+shots have a good overall record, but we also want to find out if 8/1 shots, for example, have a statistically significant high level of success in, say, smaller sized fields. Ours is a system based approach, purely following tried and tested methodical methods without room for sentiment, and we will do nothing rash, but we certainly have food for thought and perhaps come the start of November, following our break through September and October we could come out firing with a different mind-set and potentially more selective approach when it comes to our selections, please watch this space.

Lovely Lady

A good winner tonight in the shape of Links Drive Lady at Leicester to get the month off to a decent start. Let's hope we can build on it after a frustrating couple of weeks or so.

Let's start yesterday, where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.40        Beverley                Dean Iarracht                          1pt                                      7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Totesport/PP/Betfred
6.50        Worcester             Get It On                                    1pt                                     9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Coral

Dean Iarracht went off at 13/2 and stayed on strongly from the rear to finish second, seven lengths clear of third, but sadly a further seven lengths behind the winner who had flown. A good effort though from Tracy Waggott's genuine 6yo, who always seems to run well at Beverley.

Get It On was nicely backed into 3/1 but was disappointing, although was staying on a bit at the finish.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.20         Goodwood          Bint Youmzain                        0.5pt                         10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Coral/BetVictor 12/1 Bluesq
8.15         Leicester              Links Drive Lady                     1pt                            5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills
   
Bint Youmzain was quite nicely backed into 8/1, but never showed at all in her maiden race at Goodwood for Mick Channon, surely more was expected.

Links Drive Lady (4/1sp) got the month going tonight, winning for the first time in 19 attempts, although she had been running very consistently and placed on numerous occasions. Today was the day for her though, and although she seemed a touch outpaced halfway through the contest she quickened up really well to win going away. If you missed it, you can see a recording of the race here: http://youtu.be/E4_UichVIaI

Summary of Results:

July 31st 2012:

Dean Iarracht, 2nd/11, 8/1 --- 13/2
Get It On, 3rd/5, 9/2 --- 3/1

August 1st 2012:

Bint Youmzain, 15th/16, 11/1 --- 8/1

Links Drive Lady, 1st/14, 4.95/1 --- 4/1

A quick word on Links Drive Lady's prices for recording purposes - hopefully quite a few members got bigger than the 4.95/1 which Hills returned - their r4 rules meant that 10p in the £ was deducted because of two 12/1 withdrawals at about 7pm tonight.. Pretty annoying really. Also, Bet365 weren't priced up for some reason when the selections went out, and when they returned they actually went 13/2 for a good while - really 13/2 was the best price available ten minutes after our email went out (how we settle our results), but as plenty of members would have taken the 11/2 with Hills it seems a little unfair to try to claim that bigger price, so we won't.

Anyway, nice to get another winner, the second in the space of a few days and let's hope we get plenty more in the month ahead!

Results catch-up

Hope you've had a good weekend, and have been enjoying the Olympics so far.
Apologies we're a little behind with our results update, but without further ado let's get stuck in.

We start last Wednesday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20         Worcester            Bromhead                     1pt                            13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Coral/Lads/PP&others
4.50         Worcester            Sahrati                           1pt                           8/1+generally inc. 9/1 PP 10/1 Coral/Stan James
8.50         Leicester              Swendab                       1pt                           13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Hills/Totesport/Betfred/StanJames 8/1 Bet365

Bromhead went off a well supported 9/2 shot and helped dictate a quick pace, in the front pair until two out, where he couldn't keep up with the front two and had to make do placing in third.

Sahrati struggled all too early and was the last to finish, after going off at 8/1 (backed on course from 12/1 into 8s).

Swendab was weak on course going off at 12/1 but ran well, staying on quite strongly into third, beaten less than a length.

On Thursday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00        Uttoxeter              Chasing Aces                  1pt                         6-1 gen, 13-2 PP, Coral

Chasing Aces started a well backed 3/1 and touched around evens in running as he looked the most likely winner coming up the straight. But he made a mess of the last hurdle, and weakened in the last 75 yards or so to finish down the field, frustrating stuff.

On Friday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.50       South                    Morning Farewell                    1  pt                  8-1+ inc 9-1 PP, Sky,Boyle,SJames

Morning Farwell went off an easy to back 12/1 but was in the process of running a really nice race when Lucy Alexander sharply pulled him up when in second with around three flights left to jump, with the 8yo picking up some sort of injury.

On Saturday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30         Newcastle             Ralphy Boy                  2pt                            12/1 generally 14/1 PP/Boyles 16/1SportingBet
3.35         Newcastle             Descaro                       1pt                            11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/BetVictor&others 7/1 SportingBet
8.15         Salisbury               Juno The Muffinman     1pt                             6/1+generally inc. 13/2 BetVictor 7/1 Hills/Coral/Totesport&others

Ralphy Boy was our first 2pt pick for a while and we had some decent value with Kevin Ryan's 3yo going off a nicely backed 7/1. Ridden prominently on his first start for his new stable, he was a bit outpaced as things got serious and finished fairly well beaten.

Descaro started at 7/1 and stayed on quite well in the closing stages but was never going to get seriously involved.

Tom Dascombe's in great form at the moment, and we almost got a piece of it with Juno The Muffinman running well at Salisbury. Sadly he met quite a bit of trouble in running, being barged this way and that before squeezing through and staying on well, but the winner had got first run and the selection couldn't get there, after going off at 11/2.

Then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.40        Carlisle                  Majestic Manannan      1pt                           5/1 Hills/Bet365/Coral/BetVictor/PP/SportingBet
4.30        Stratford                Lodgician                     1pt                           12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Bet365 16/1 Stan James/SportingBet

And it was a cracking performance by Majestic Manannan to get us back to winning ways. Leading virtually from the start, Dandy Nicholls' 3yo was always travelling nicely and when he was asked to quicken again and put the race to bed he did so really well. He started a nicely backed 7/2. If you didn't see the race, here's video of it: http://youtu.be/UqS9i4ix_hU

Lodgician (10/1sp) never looked to be travelling too kindly but steadily stayed on well from the back to finish third in the end, beaten around four lengths.


Summary of Results:

Wednesday 25th July:Bromhead, 3rd/11, 7/1 --- 9/2
Sahrati, 11th/12, 8/1 --- 8/1
Swendab, 3rd/8, 8/1 --- 12/1

Thursday 26th July:Chasing Aces, 7th/11, 13/2 --- 3/1

Friday 27th July:Morning Farewell, PU/10, 8/1 --- 12/1

Saturday 28th July:Ralphy Boy, 7th/11, 12/1 --- 7/1
Descaro, 8th/13, 6/1 --- 7/1
Juno The Muffinman, 2nd/11, 7/1 --- 11/2

Sunday 29th July:
Majestic Manannan, 1st/8, 5/1 --- 7/2
Lodgician, 3rd/14, 12/1 --- 10/1

Here's to a good week ahead!

Monday/Tuesday

Not a good run we're on at the moment, which at least means we're normally due a winner or two, so let's hope they come along soon. Not a great deal to say about our most recent runners.

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.10         Ayr                       Free Art                        1pt                         6/1+generally inc. 13/2 BetVictor/Totesport/Skybet/BetFred

The rain had really got into the ground by the time of Free Art's (11/4sp) race, which had forced a lot of non-runners. He was held up off the pace and just never could get into it.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

7.35         Ffos Las                  Boudicca                     1pt                         10/1 Bet365/Hills/Boyles 11/1 Bluesq
9.05         Ffos Las                  Steel Rain                    1pt                         6/1 generally 13/2 PP/Totesport 8/1 Stan James

Early Selection:

8.15         Bangor                 Schumpters Lad             1pt                           5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/PP/Skybet

Boudicca went off at 7/1 but weakened some way from home

Steel Rain couldn't quicken when he needed to, although wasn't helped by being a little short of room when trying to improve, not that it's likely to have made much difference. He went off at 5/1.

Schumpters Lad (15/2sp) was the second selection in recent days to be unseated after being hampered at the second fence.

Summary of Results:

Monday 23rd July 2012:

Free Art, 6th/7,  4/1 --- 11/4

Tuesday 24th July 2012:

Boudicca, 7th/8, 10/1 --- 7/1
Steel Rain, 5th/6, 13/2 --- 5/1
Schumpters Lad, UR/7, 11/2 --- 15/2Roll on tomorrow!

Weekend results

It's fair to say we've had better weeks results-wise, with the weekend doing little to turn things around, very disappointing! The good thing about it is it won't take much to better it this week coming, so we look forward to a brighter seven days ahead.

Let's start our latest round-up yesterday, where we had:
 

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

3.40         Ripon                   Toptempo                     1pt                          4/1 generally 9/2 Bet365 5/1 Stan James
5.15         Market Rasen      Nosecond Chance          1pt                         7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/BetVictor/Totesport & others
5.25         Cartmel                Lieutenant Miller            1pt                          6/1+generally inc. 13/2 BetVictor 7/1 Coral/StanJames 8/1 Totesport

Toptempo (8/1sp) was weak in the market, and after being outpaced going into three furlongs from home stayed on quite nicely without ever remotely looking like getting involved. She did show a suggestion of ability but yesterday wasn't her day.

Nosecond Chance was quite solid in the market, going off at 6/1, but we'll never know if he was going to reward that support, as he unseated his rider when hampered by a falling horse after the second fence, Well Green, who sadly was fatally injured.

Lieutenant Miller went off at 4/1 but was driven along all too early - which seemd to galvanise him a little as he got back into contention, only to fade again with Andrew Tinkler soon hoisting the white flag and pulling him up.

And today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

4.10         Newton Abbot      Silsula                            1pt                         9/1 Bet365/PP/Boyles/SkyBet 10/1 Totesport/Betfred

Silsula (9/1) was back over fences and nicely backed this morning to make the most of the drier ground, but she jumped poorly from the start and just never looked remotely like getting involved.

Summary of Results:

Saturday 21st July 2012

Toptempo, 4th/5, 9/2 --- 8/1
Nosecond Chance, UR/10,  8/1 --- 6/1
Lieutenant Miller, PU/15, 8/1 --- 4/1

Sunday 22nd July 2012

Silsula, PU/7, 10/1 --- 9/1

So not very pretty, roll on the new week and a change in fortune!

Looking for a weekend boost!

It's beeen a poor week so far, with a particularly tough day today. Of course, it won't take much to spin things around and let's hope we get a nice winner or two this weekend.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.05        Hay                          Pea Shooter                        1pt                       6-1 general, 13-2 PP, Betfred,Tote
3.40        Hay                         Cocktail Charlie                   1pt                       6-1 general
5.25       Hay                           Flipping                              1pt                       5-1 general
7.35       Pont                          Singeur                                1pt                      6-1 general, 7-1 S James, B Square

Pea Shooter showed plenty of early dash and for a moment or two looked to hold every chance as others began to get shoved along, but the complexion of the race changed completely in the final furlong and the selection dropped away, after starting at 6/1.

Cocktail Charlie was well backed into 7/2 and ran pretty well, finishing third, but was never going the pace of the comfortable winner.

Fleeting was very weak in the market going off at 9/1, although ran ok for the most part - until things got serious and he faded out of contention.

Singeur went off at 5/1 and just never really looked like getting involved after racing too keenly in the opening stages after being slowly away.

Summary of Results

Pea Shooter, 4th/6, 6/1 --- 6/1
Cocktail Charlie, 3rd/8, 6/1 --- 7/2
Flipping, 6th/8, 5/1 --- 9/1
Singeur, 6th/9, 6/1 --- 5/1

Fair to say we've had better days! Let's hope we can make amends over the weekend.

Thursday

A couple of disappointing efforts this evening, not least from our Epsom runner who just never showed at all despite being plenty strong enough in the market on course.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

6.00         Bath                     Signifer                         1pt                             5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/PP&others 6/1 Hills
8.50         Epsom                 Northern Territory         1pt                             7/1+generally inc. 15/2 BetVictor/Totesport/Betfred 8/1 SkyBet

Signifer raced prominently and had every chance approaching the final furlong or so, but was under the pump all too early and couldn't quicken well enough in the closing stages, ultimately ending quite well beaten, after going off a solid 9/2 at SP.

Likewise Northern Territory was quite well backed on course, going off at 6/1, but could just never get into it after being held up at the back of the field, a really disappointing effort.

Summary of Results:

Wednesday 18th July:

Antonius Caesar NR (abandoned meeting)

Thursday 19th July

Signifer, 6th/9, 6/1 --- 9/2
Northern Territory, 9th/9, 15/2 --- 6/1

It's been a fairly uninspiring week so far to say the least, let's hope for better tomorrow!

Tuesday

Well both selections were there with every chance today, but sadly neither got the job done, witht he best effort from Thecornishcowboy who finished a pretty close up third.


We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00         Beverley               Capitol Gain                  1pt                           6/1 generally
7.50         Yarmouth             Thecornishcowboy         1pt                          9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Coral/Totesport/PP&others

Capitol Gain (11/2sp) was quite slowly into stride and hustled up to race prominently. He didn't handle the turn-in well and was soon being bustled along to keep up and ended up fading disappointingly out of contention.

Much better was from Thecornishcowboy (9/2sp), who traded at 1.6 as he came with what looked a promising run coming into the closing stages, but he just couldn't quicken well enough close home and went down in third, beaten around a length.

Summary of Results:

Capitol Gain, 8th/11, 6/1 --- 11/2
Thecornishcowboy, 3rd/12, 5/1 --- 9/2

Last Wednesday we had a cracking 11/1 winner, we'll be doing our best to find something similar tomorrow.

Results catch up

Time for a results catch up looking back at the last three days.

On Saturday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.10         York                    New Rich                       1pt                         11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Coral 13/2 BetVictor 7/1 Bet365
5.10         Chester                Rusty Rocket                  1pt                         5/1 Hills/PP/Bet365/Skybet 11/2 SportingBet 6/1Stan James
6.40         Hamilton              Cross Of Lorraine           1pt                         7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Hills/Coral/Totesport&others 11/1 Stan James

New Rich had been well supported earlier in the day for his debut, but was a little weak on course going off at 9/1. He was up there for a good while, before fading just over a furlong from home to finish well beaten.

At Chester, Rusty Rocket went off at 9/2 and just couldn't get involved after racing wide throughout.

Cross Of Lorraine went off at 7/2, was a bit slow leaving the stalls and seemed outpaced before staying on late, without ever looking like getting inovlved

On Sunday we had no selections, and then today, Monday, we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.05         Ayr                      Dubai Bay                      1pt                           9/1 Totesport/Betfred 10/1 Bet365/Bluesq 11/1 Skybet 12/1 Boyles

Dubai Bay went off a solid 6/1 chance and there were obviously decent expectations for a good display. He raced prominently against the rail, going nicely, until he was a bit short of room for a stride or two after which he ran out of steam as the horses in the centre stretched clear. 

Summary of Results:

Saturday 14th July 2012:

New Rich, 7th/13, 7/1 --- 9/1
Rusty Rocket, 6th/8, 5/1 --- 9/2
Cross Of Lorraine, 6th/7, 5.2/1 --- 7/2

Sunday 15th July 2012:

No selections

Monday 16th July 2012:

Dubai Bay, 10th/14, 10/1 --- 6/1

So, it's fair to say a pretty uninspiring few days results-wise. July's still going along well overall, but it would be good to crack in another winner or two in the next few days.

No Friday fizz

After good winners on the last two Fridays, we unfortunately weren't able to make it three in a row today, with a couple of distinctly poor efforts.

We didn't have any selections yesterday - and today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

5.10         Newbury              Foxhaven                      1pt                          8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Lads 10/1 Hills/SkyBet 11/1 Totesport/BetFred
6.00         Chester                 St Oswald                    1pt                          9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/Lads/Totesport&others

Foxhaven went off at 10/1 and was up there for a while, before fading out of things a couple of furlongs from home.

An even less impressive effort from St Oswald, who started at 13/2, and just never looked like getting involved.

Summary of Results:

12th July 2012:

No selections

13th July 2012:
Foxhaven, 10th/13, 11/1 --- 10/1
St Oswald, 14th/15, 5/1 --- 13/2

Weather permitting, we've six meetings to look forward to tomorrow, so potentially a busy day - let's hope it's a profitable one.

July further into profit!

Another excellent day, with Qualypso D'Allier winning as easily as they come at Worcester tonight to push July further into profit.

We had no selections yesterday, and today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20         Catterick             Activate                          1pt                           4/1+generally inc.9/2 PP 5/1 Totesport/Stan James
3.40         Yarmouth            Saslong                           1pt                           4/1+generaly inc. 9/2 Totesport/Skybet/Boyles/Betfred 5/1 Stan James
6.40         Worcester           Qualypso D'Allier             1pt                           10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Hills/PP/Totesport/Boyles/Betfred 12/1 Stan James

Activate was really well backed this morning and it looked as if a long-term plan may have been hatched. An on-course drift wasn't part of the reckoning though, with Kevin Ryan's 5yo going off at 6/1, and despite travelling very sweetly being held up at the back he couldn't quicken up in the ground and fininshed 7th. No question that this horse is seriously well handicapped on his best form and there has to be a strong chance he'll be winning soon.

Saslong was also weak on course, with Mark Johnston's handicap debutant finishing last of six, perhaps hating the downpour the race was run in, after going off at 6/1.

So after a fairly uninspiring afternoon we looked to Qualypso D'Allier to turn things around. And what a performance it was. Going off a well backed 11/2 on his first start for Richard Woollacott, he was always travelling really well and just gradually, smoothly came through the field and eased clear to win in a canter, despite a small mistake at the last. Fantastic stuff!

Summary of Results:

11th July 2012
Activate, 7th/10, 5/1 --- 6/1
Saslong, 6th/6, 9/2 --- 6/1
Qualypso D'Allier, 1st/12 11/1 --- 11/2  (go to http://youtu.be/frUoE0Mjn8k to see the closing stages)

To official results, we're 14pts up for July, although hopefully plenty of members will be in better shape than that, with better prices available about both our good priced winners this month than officially recorded.

Little doubt now we are on a good run, with 47.45pts of profit returned in just over six weeks, a ROI of a fantastic 68.77% and long may it continue.

Results update

It continues to be a fairly quiet stretch, with no selections on Saturday, and then a couple of below-par performances at Ayr yesterday and today, although at least in Bountiful Girl's case we got some cracking value - just a shame she couldn't justify the serious support she received!

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.30         Ayr                     New Lease Of Life        1pt                           4/1 generally

New Lease Of Life went off at 6/1 and just never looked like getting involved - not showing enough pace after being held up early.


Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00         Ayr                      Bountiful Girl                   1pt                       7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Hills/Bet365/Coral/Boyles&others 17/2 SportingBet

Bountiful Girl was backed throughout the day and opened on course at 9/2 - and then supported in further to 11/4 at post time. Sadly she faded out of contention a couple of furlongs from home and was well beaten.

Summary of Results:

Sunday 8th July 2012
New Lease Of Life, 6th/8, 4/1 --- 6/1

Monday 9th July 2012Bountiful Girl, 5th/7, 8/1 --- 11/4

Just to say as well, it was with mixed feelings we saw Acknowledgement go in at an SP of 12/1 at Ayr this afternoon (beaten selection for us last time). Not very well backed today, perhaps some fingers burnt after he didn't do the business last month (although did meet trouble in running), but at least it showed the vibes that the horse was ready to win was right.

Let's see what tomorrow brings!

Red Hot Diggity!

A cracking result today with Hot Diggity doing the business for us in good style at Sandown at a nice price.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.25         Sandown               Hot Diggity                   1pt                         10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Bet365/StanJames 14/1 Hills/Totesport/Boyles

Tracking the leaders, Peter Chapple-Hyam's 2yo, on his second start, took things up just over a furlong from home and then stayed on all the way to the line, repelling his nearest challenger by half a length, with the pair more than two lengths clear of third. A fine performance and another Friday winner to go into the weekend! Great stuff.Hopefully quite a few members will have got the 14s with Hills, but we won't use that price as it was only around a few minutes. 12/1 should have been obtained by most with b.o.g in play. BSP players will have seen a very tasty 18.36 return, very nice!

We've had just the one other runner since Tuesday, which ran yesterday:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40         Yarmouth              Temple Road               1pt                            5/1+generally, inc. 11/2 Hills/Lads 6/1 Bluesq

Temple Road was up with the pace for a while after being pushed out in the market to 9/1 at SP, but faded out of things to finish well out of the frame. It didn't help seeing Irish Girl's Spirit land the spoils in the race (our selection on Sunday just gone, which went so close for us finishing 2nd at 12/1) , but we can be pretty certain that her connections would also rather have had her win on Sunday than yestoday, with the level of morning support behind her back then! Well done to them anyway, nice to see a stable know when they've got one well handicapped and make a few quid. The unbacked 50/1 shots scooting up on handicap debuts are the ones which really gets to us!


Summary of Results:


Thursday 5th July 2012:

Temple Road, 12th/14, 11/2 --- 9/1


Friday 6th July:

Hot Diggity, 1st/10, 10/1 --- 12/1

Racing's already decimated tomorrow by abandonments and Haydock and Beverley also have early morning inspections, but hopefully there'll be an opportunity or two for us to keep things going. Absolutely ridiculous weather at the moment, surely it has to be brighten up soon!

Quiet week so far

A quiet week so far, with no selections on Monday, and just the one today, where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

 

4.30         Hamilton              Altnaharra                     1pt                            8/1+generally inc. 10/1 Totesport/Boyles/Bluesq/Betfred/Skybet 11/1 Hills 12/1 SportingBet

Altnaharra went off at 8/1, after being allowed to drift to 11/1 on course at one stage, but the reasonably solid support wasn't in the end justified, with Jim Goldie's three year old finishing a well beaten fifth, never looking like getting involved. 

Summary of result:

Altnaharra, 5th/7, 10/1 --- 8/1

On to tomorrow!

June Review

Another good month, with more than 17pts of profit secured and a very healthy +35.61% ROI. We're particularly pleased about this as June seems to have been a bit of a nightmare month for many tipsters, partly due perhaps to the incredibly changeable ground we've been seeing with all the rain about.


Let's look at the stats:


Bets: 49
Wins: 9 (18.37%)
2nds: 8 (16.33%)
3rds: 2 (7.14%)
Placed total: 19 (38.78%)
Average odds taken: 6.44/1
Average SP: 6.06/1
Average win odds: 6.38/1
Profit/Loss: +17.45pts
Return On Investment: +35.61%


At 6.44/1 for our average priced selection (as normal, price taken from decent bookie, ten minutes after selection issued), we had our lowest average price since January 2010. No real reason for this, and with relatively few number of bets (49), it's of course a bit more likely to have slightly more skewed averages (either high or low). For the 25th month out of 26 we beat SP, albeit not quite by the manner we have done in the last three months, but still a very pleasing result nonetheless.

Continuing the theme for 2012 generally, we can point to a number of second placed finishes which if they had managed to get their heads in front would have given the month a cracking boost, but, still , at 18.37% win strike rate for the month, we can't complain really at our winning percentage. Certainly, if we can keep that sort of level up things will look very rosy going forward, even more so if our average odds taken re-adjusts upwards a little, which it's bound to.

At 38.78% placed strike rate, that is just 0.6% above what we have historically seen place (since Jan 1 2010), so that's fine, and it's interesting to see that we had more winners than finish second for the second month running (albeit by just one). There's little doubt that this last stat helps give us a much better chance of a good month. I know this sounds obvious, and we certainly have had a few profitable months when the seconds outweigh first place finishes, but when our placed strike rate will rarely climb above 45% (happened in four months out of the 26), it's important that a decent number of those horses which run well for us actually do get their heads in front. 


That is why the early part of this year was pretty frustrating, from January to March we had 54.8%, 44.74% and 35.1% place, but we had 31 seconds to our 20 winners. Be it jockeys concerned about the new (now amended) whip rules, or just one of those things, there's no question we were a little unlucky not to have substantial profits in the first part of this year. Anyway, it's a long-term game this and things seem to be righting themselves now.

In summary, June a strong month and let's hope for more of the same through July!

Going close & a Spaniard's Brian Clough impersonation

First of all, congratulations to Spain! I thought Italy were a bit unlucky to lose by four in the end, but still, Spain worthy winners and a terrific team. Did you spot Spain's Sergio Busquets' flying punch (which missed) on a pitch-invading fan? We've put it on YouTube in our first ever attempt at a "viral" video, do please feel free to share if you're as amused by his effort as we were!

Anyway a  quick look back at the weekend action, where we went close to a couple of decent returns, but just missed out.

On Saturday we ended June with:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.45        Newcastle            Cheveton                        1pt                            9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/PP/Totesport&others

Cheveton went off at 7/1, ran ok for a while but faded towards the finish to come sixth.

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.45         Windsor               Crown Counsel             1pt                           10/1 generally 11/1 PP/BetVictor
3.05         Salisbury              Invincible Lad                1pt                          5/1 generally 6/1 Coral
4.25         Windsor               Irish Girls Spirit             1pt                           7/1 generally 15/2 Hills 8/1 Bet365/BetVictor

Not a good day value wise but both Crown Counsel and Irish Girls Spirit ran crackers and on another day we could have had a nice return.

Crown Counsel was well backed in the morning but drifted and went off at 14/1, before running a big race. Leading from the start, he was headed just over a furlong out and while it looked for a minute he might rally again, it wasn't quite to be and he finished a close up third.

Invincible Lad was asked for an effort only briefly in the seniors' sprint handicap at Salisbury, and when it was clear he wasn't going to win was immediately allowed to come home in his own time, after starting at 7/1.

Then came Irish Girls Spirit, who on her handicap debut ran a cracker, despite drifting to 12/1 at the off. Always prominent, she took things up over a furlong out, and was only headed in the last 50 yards, despite staying on all the way to the line. A really game effort, and a shame she couldn't manage to win as that would have given July an excellent start!

Summary of Results

Saturday 30th June 2012 

Cheveton, 6th/15, 5/1 --- 7/1

Sunday 1st July 2012

Crown Counsel, 3rd/12, 10/1 --- 14/1
Invincible Lad, 8th/9, 6/1 --- 7/1
Irish Girls Spirt, 2nd/9, 8/1 --- 12/1

June finished nicely in profit, and a review for the month will follow in the next day or so.

For now, all the best,

Sam & TME team