Monday, 27 August 2012

Bank Holiday Update

We hope you've had a good Bank Holiday weekend, despite the weather (in most places) today!

It's good to be able to report a profitable update since our last report, about time too! Unfortunately we couldn't follow up yesterday's winner today, but let's hope for a strong end to August in the days ahead.

Unusually, we had no selections on Saturday and then yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.50        Yarm                   Highlife Dancer                        1pt                5-1+ inc 6-1 B365,VCBet, PP 7-1 S James

Mick Channon's 4yo won well, after starting at 6/1. Prominent throughout when he was asked to go and win his race he duly did, pushed out to the line, his 7th victory in 28 outings, not a bad strike rate at all - albeit this his first victory  for nearly a year (first in 13 attempts). If you missed the race and would like to see the closing stages, they're here:

Then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00      Newc                   Foreign Rhythm                     1pt                            8-1+ inc 9-1 BFred,Tote,SJames,VCBet; 10-1B365
5.20      Rip                       Miss Ella Jade                        1pt                            9-2 general, 5-1B365,Sky,BSq

Foreign Rhythm went off at 9/1, and was in touch, travelling quite nicely for a good while, but couldn't really land a blow when asked for an effort and finished 5th.

Miss Ella Jade looked promising for a while, but while she comfortably finished in the places in third, she was quite some way behind the front two, after starting at 4/1.

Summary of Results

Saturday 25th August 2012

No selections

Sunday 26th August 2012

Highlife Dancer, 1st/9, 6/1 --- 6/1

Monday 27th August 2012

Foreign Rhythm, 5th/9, 10/1 --- 9/1
Miss Ella Jade, 3rd/9, 5/1 --- 4/1

So let's hope we can kick on now before the break, on to tomorrow.

Saturday, 25 August 2012

Results Update

Quite how we haven't had a winner since our last results update is anyone's guess, with two selections getting turned over back to back after trading at around 1.10 in running. Practically the same odds, if not shorter, as seeing Frankel getting turned over twice in a row! Just sums things up at the moment really but we push on and look forward to better times ahead. They will come again, sooner or later, but there's no question it's tough at the moment.

First up, Tuesday, where we had:
TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.55        Perth                     Toshi                             1pt                           9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Coral/PP/Boyles/SkyBet/Sporting Bet 11/2 Stan James

Toshi went off at 6/1, skipped clear of the field and was still going really nicely coming up to the last. He traded at 1.10 in running, but was joined by the favourite under an inspired Richard Johnson ride and was outgunned on the run-in.


TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.15         Lingfield               Spiritual Art                  1pt                         11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/Totesport/Coral&others 13/2 Stan James

It may have been back on the level, but similarly to Toshi, we were caught close home after seemingly moving into an unassailable lead with Spiritual Art (6/1sp), but was just touched off in the last strides, after trading at 1.11. <Deep breath.>

Spiritual Art, 2nd/10, 6/1 --- 6/1

On to Thursday and we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.25         Ffos Las               Illysantachristina               1pt                       9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/PP 11/2 SportingBet
6.40         Folkestone           Serene Oasis                    1pt                       5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Totesport 6/1 Boyles
8.00         Cartmel                Knockans Breeze             1pt                       9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/Boyles

Illysantachristina was up there throughout, after going off at 4/1 but weakened before the last, finishing third.

Serene Oasis was nicely supported on course, going off at 4/1. Mick Channon's 3yo was held up, brought outside for a challenge and didn't have enough to get serious in the closing stages.

We knew our fate before the off with Knockans Breeze, who went off at 14/1 (21.09 at BSP) and never remotely looked like getting involved.

We didn't have any selections on Friday.

Summary of Results:

Tuesday, 21st August 2012:

Toshi, 2nd/6, 5/1 --- 6/1

Wednesday 22nd August 2012:

Spiritual Art, 2nd/10, 6/1 --- 6/1

Thursday 23rd August 2012:

Illysantachristina, 3rd/7, 5/1 --- 4/1
Serene Oasis, 4th/6, 11/2 --- 4/1
Knockans Breeze, 6th/7, 5/1 --- 14/1

Friday 24th August 2012:

No selections.

Monday, 20 August 2012

Results Catch Up

A look back at the last week or so:

Last Tuesday we had:
TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30        Bath                      Lobelia                          1pt                           8/1+generally 9/1 SkyBet Stan James
4.50        Ayr                       Majuro                          1pt                           7/1 Bet365/BetVictor/Totesport/PP&others
6.35        Yarmouth              Arabic                           1pt                           11/2 generally
8.20        Nottingham           Style And Panache         1pt                           11/2+generally 6/1 Coral 13/2 Hills

An annoying recent trend has been horses of our being slowly away - this was the case with Lobelia, who started a nicely backed 11/2 but blew the start and had to use energy to get back into the mix - it showed late on and Brian Meehan's 2yo filly faded away.

Majuro at Ayr was dropping down to 6 furlongs for the first time since May last year and ran well, but got headed inside the final furlong to finish second after starting at 9/2.

Arabic went off at 11/2 and was staying on well towards the end without ever quite having the pace to get there, beaten 1 1/2 lengths in fourth.

Style And Panache was unfortunately a non-runner.

Last Wednesday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.25         Beverley               Pinotage                        1pt                             5/1 generally 11/2 Totesport

Pinotage started at 4/1 and led going into the final furlong but couldn't hold off his pursuers, to finish fourth.

Thursday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

6.40         Stratford               Calypso Bay                 1pt                           7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/Coral/StanJames

Who went off a well supported 5/1 but was under pressure all too early and was well beaten.

On Friday we had:
TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10         Nottingham           Double Your Money     1pt                           5/1+ generally 11/2 Hills/Totesport/PP/Boyles&others 6/1 SportingBet
3.35         Newcastle            China Excels                  1pt                           5/1 Bet365/Coral 11/2 Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet/Stan James

Double Your Money went off at 13/2 and finished fifth, staying on, but not in dange of troubling the principles.

China Excels, Sue Smith's only flat runner, went on an almighty drift to 25/1 before being backed in again to 12/1 only to finish tailed off.


TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.15       Don                           Teds Brother                       1pt                  9-2+ inc 5s Sky, BFred,Tote, 6-1 B365

Ted's Brother was at least nicely supported, into 4/1 at SP but was held up and didn't have the pace to properly get involved.

We had no selections on Sunday and then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

6.00        Windsor                African Oil                    1pt                         13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Hills/Bet365 8/1 Coral/Skybet

African Oil (SP 13/2) was quite strong in the market on his second racecourse start and put in a big performance, always up there but going down to the favourite by half a length.
Summary of Results:

Tuesday 14th August:

Lobelia, 7th/7, 8/1 --- 11/2
Majuro, 2nd/8, 7/1 --- 9/2
Arabic, 4th/8, 11/2 --- 11/2
Style And Panache NR

Wednesday 15th August:

Pinotage, 4th/10, 5/1 --- 4/1

Thursday 16th August: 

Calypso Bay, 9th/9, 8/1 --- 5/1

Summary of Results:

Friday 17th August

Double Your Money, 5th/11, 11/2 --- 13/2
China Excels, 10th/10th, 11/2 --- 12/1

Saturday 18th August

Ted's Brother, 5/1 --- 4/1

Sunday 19th August

No selections

Monday 20th August

African Oil, 2nd/11, 7/1 --- 13/2

Dreadful month so far, but it won't take much to turn things around so let's hope we get a good day tomorrow.

Monday, 13 August 2012

Results update

A quick recap looking back at our four selections over the last four days, safe to say a forgettable few days.

On Friday we had:
TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.10        Brighton                Penang Cita                   1pt                          8/1+generally inc. 17/2 VCBet 10/1 SportingBet 12/1 Stan James

Penang Cita went off at at 8/1 and found very little when asked for an effort, finishing well behind.

On Saturday it was the turn of:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10          Redcar                 Fred Willetts                 1pt                          8/1+generally inc. 17/2 Hills 9/1 Skybet 10/1 Stan James

Fred Willetts (9/1 SP) was there or thereabouts when asked for an effort, but gradually weakened out of it.

We didn't have a selection on Sunday, and then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20        Ffos Las                 Phluke                         1pt                          12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Skybet 16/1 Coral
4.20        Ffos Las                 Belle Bayardo             1pt                           7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Totesport/Stan James

Phluke went off at 14/1 and drifted to much bigger on the exchanges, and ran accordingly.

Belle Bayardo (6/1sp) ran keenly before gradually weakening out of things in a most disappointing fashion an hour later.

Summary of Results:

Friday 10th August 2012:

Penang Cita, 8th/9, 8/1 --- 8/1

Saturday 11th August 2012:

Fred Willetts, 8th/14, 8/1 --- 9/1

Sunday 12th August 2012:

No selections

Monday 13th August 2012:

Phluke, 8th/9, 12/1 --- 14/1
Belle Bayardo, 5th/7, 7/1 --- 6/1

Thursday, 9 August 2012


Well it's a good job the Olympics is doing a good job to keep spirit's up! A frustrating day, with another second placed finish, and two others for whom things perhaps could have been different if they'd have started better. 

We had:
TTIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.30         Yarmouth             Akula                            1pt                          5/1+generally 11/2 SkyBet
5.40         Sandown              Chorister Choir             1pt                          10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Lads/BetVictor&others 12/1 Bet365/Coral/PP/Totesport
8.00         Chepstow             Loyal N Trusted           1pt                          9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads&others 11/1 Hills/Totesport/Betfred

Akula travelled really well for a long time in the last at Yarmouth, going odds-on in running, but was in the end out-gunned into second, after starting a well backed 11/4.

Chorister Choir, on her racecourse debut was also strong in the market, but she fluffed the start and ran very green early on before staying on nicely under a considerate ride, she'll probably be winning before too long and it's just a shame it didn't happen today. She went off at 15/2.

On an excellent day for value for our bets, Loyal N Trusted was also well backed, going off at 6/1, but also made a hash of the start. He got back into things before just not having enough left in the tank in the closing stages despite looking a big danger with about a furlong to go (traded at evens).

Summary of Results:

9th August 2012

Akula, 2nd/9, 5/1 --- 11/4
Chorister Choir, 5th/9, 12/1 --- 15/2
Loyal N Trusted, 5th/13, 11/1 --- 6/1

Wednesday, 8 August 2012

Results update

Well a decent day today for those who like to play e/w doubles, but for us win-only backers disappointingly nothing back.

We had no selections on Monday so our latest results summary starts yesterday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

6.35         Ripon                     Teetotal                      1pt                            9/2 + generally inc. 5/1 Totesport/PP/Boyles/BetFred/Bluesq

Teetotal went off at 7/2 after being a bit restless in the stalls, and slow leaving them. Nigel Tinkler's colt did make some ground, but could never quite get close enough to the leaders, a bit one paced towards the finish, and ended fourth, giving some promise for the future.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.10         Newcastle             Brave Battle                 1pt                          9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills 11/1 Coral
7.20         Yarmouth              Roundelay                   1pt                            9/2 +generally inc. 5/1 Totesport/StanJames/Skybet

Brave Battle was written off by the ATR pundit pre-race, but ran pretty well after going off at 7/1, keeping on in third place, albeit a little bit back from the leaders.

Roundelay went down by 3/4 length in a driving finish after a bit of a troubled run, checked for room a couple of times, she bravely stayed on but was just collared by a fast finisher, after going off a well backed 11/4.

Summary of Results:

Tuesday 7th August 2012

Teetotal, 4th/6, 5/1 --- 7/2

Wednesday 8th August 2012

Brave Battle, 3rd/8, 10/1 --- 7/1
Roundelay, 2nd/6, 9/2 --- 11/4

A frustrating spell, to the backdrop of what's proving a brilliant Olympics - hopefully some of that feel-good spirit will rub off on our picks between now and Sunday and we get one or two decent winners! 

Sunday, 5 August 2012

Weekend update

What a performance from Usain Bolt tonight, brilliant action!

In terms of our selections, not a lot to report on since Friday, with today's meeting at Chester abandoned after the third race, depriving us of a runner today, and just two other selections to look back on.

On Friday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.50         Newmarket          Daruband                      1pt                           11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/PP/Bluesq 7/1 Coral/Stan James

Daruband ran well for a long time, travelling comfortably and going odds on in running as things started to get serious, but unfortunately he seemed to run out of juice and ended up finishing 6th, after starting at 13/2.

On Saturday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00        Doncaster             Fulgur                            1pt                           5/1 generally 11/2 SportingBet

Well the Racing Post analysis called Fulgur's showing "pleasing enough" - well not quite pleasing enough for us! Going off at 11/2 he was held up towards the back and made up some ground quite nicely, before things flattened out and he finished back in 9th on his first start in almost a year.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.15         Chester                Green Mitas                   1pt                         11/1 Hills/Lads 12/1 Bet365/Coral 14/1 Totesport/SkyBet/Betfred/Stan James

And we never got to see him in action with a thunderstorm and heavy rain forcing racing to unfortunately be abandoned after the third race.

Summary of Results:

Friday August 3rd:

Daruband, 6th/12, 6/1 --- 13/2

Saturday August 4th:

Fulgur, 9th/11, 5/1 --- 11/2

So there we are, hopefully this sporadic heavy rain will soon clear away and we get a good week of racing in the week ahead, with nice settled ground; you can but hope!

Thursday, 2 August 2012

July Review

First of all, just to say we had no selections today, so August remains 4.45pts to the good so far, but for now let's head straight into our review for July.

We think it's probably fair to say that July's been our most disappointing month of 2012 so far. We started strongly, 14pts to the good on the 11th of the month, and continuing our strong form of May and June.

But as the racing gods have a habit of doing, they reminded us that this game is not all plain sailing and wallop! we get hit with our worst losing run since proofing our results began in January 2010. 30 selections failing to get their heads in front in a row, beating the previous "record" of 28. Statistically - and over the course of thousands more bets - our worst  run is expected to be 48.9. Basically we know these will come along every now and then at the odds we play at and it's why we have to ensure we maintain good bank discipline. But while sensible staking relative to our betting banks can make us more relaxed through trying times, it's still extremely disappointing when these runs come along. At least August started well yesterday and we can only hope for an immediate correction!

Let's have a look at the stats:

Bets: 45
Wins: 3 (6.67%)
2nds: 3 (6.67%)
3rds: 6 (7.14%)
Placed total: 12 (26.67%)
Average odds taken: 7.18/1
Average SP: 6.73/1
Average win odds: 9.33/1
Profit/Loss: -15.15pts
Return On Investment: -32.61%

Given the poor win strike-rate at 6.67%, and the losing run until Majestic Manannan went in on Sunday, it's something of a bright spot that we "only" lost 15.15pts in the month.

This is thanks to the fact that our average win odds were a decent 9.33/1 (12/1, 11/1 and 5/1). In fact, only backing our selections at 10/1 or more this month, would have returned a 14pt profit from ten picks. This theme of our biggest priced selections outperforming our shorter priced picks in terms of return on investment is one which refuses to go away and has been the case now since proofing began in 2010.

We are very closely analysing this information, including a thorough examination of field sizes to prices. For example, 10/1+shots have a good overall record, but we also want to find out if 8/1 shots, for example, have a statistically significant high level of success in, say, smaller sized fields. Ours is a system based approach, purely following tried and tested methodical methods without room for sentiment, and we will do nothing rash, but we certainly have food for thought and perhaps come the start of November, following our break through September and October we could come out firing with a different mind-set and potentially more selective approach when it comes to our selections, please watch this space.

Wednesday, 1 August 2012

Lovely Lady

A good winner tonight in the shape of Links Drive Lady at Leicester to get the month off to a decent start. Let's hope we can build on it after a frustrating couple of weeks or so.

Let's start yesterday, where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.40        Beverley                Dean Iarracht                          1pt                                      7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Totesport/PP/Betfred
6.50        Worcester             Get It On                                    1pt                                     9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Coral

Dean Iarracht went off at 13/2 and stayed on strongly from the rear to finish second, seven lengths clear of third, but sadly a further seven lengths behind the winner who had flown. A good effort though from Tracy Waggott's genuine 6yo, who always seems to run well at Beverley.

Get It On was nicely backed into 3/1 but was disappointing, although was staying on a bit at the finish.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.20         Goodwood          Bint Youmzain                        0.5pt                         10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Coral/BetVictor 12/1 Bluesq
8.15         Leicester              Links Drive Lady                     1pt                            5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills
Bint Youmzain was quite nicely backed into 8/1, but never showed at all in her maiden race at Goodwood for Mick Channon, surely more was expected.

Links Drive Lady (4/1sp) got the month going tonight, winning for the first time in 19 attempts, although she had been running very consistently and placed on numerous occasions. Today was the day for her though, and although she seemed a touch outpaced halfway through the contest she quickened up really well to win going away. If you missed it, you can see a recording of the race here:

Summary of Results:

July 31st 2012:

Dean Iarracht, 2nd/11, 8/1 --- 13/2
Get It On, 3rd/5, 9/2 --- 3/1

August 1st 2012:

Bint Youmzain, 15th/16, 11/1 --- 8/1
Links Drive Lady, 1st/14, 4.95/1 --- 4/1

A quick word on Links Drive Lady's prices for recording purposes - hopefully quite a few members got bigger than the 4.95/1 which Hills returned - their r4 rules meant that 10p in the £ was deducted because of two 12/1 withdrawals at about 7pm tonight.. Pretty annoying really. Also, Bet365 weren't priced up for some reason when the selections went out, and when they returned they actually went 13/2 for a good while - really 13/2 was the best price available ten minutes after our email went out (how we settle our results), but as plenty of members would have taken the 11/2 with Hills it seems a little unfair to try to claim that bigger price, so we won't.

Anyway, nice to get another winner, the second in the space of a few days and let's hope we get plenty more in the month ahead!