Saturday, 28 February 2009

Three more for a Saturday

Despite four meetings over the jumps today, only three horses matching the criteria.

Good luck today to:

2.20 at Kempton - Double Obsession - 8-1 with William Hill
2.50 at Kempton - Hello My Lovely - 8-1 with Stan James
3.45 at Newbury - Procas De Thaix - 5-1 with Bet365 (not enhanced win only!!)

Quite pleased we only have three runners because if we have three losers, the bank will be on £234.17.

That is up on the February 1st figure of £231.03 - which after the run in the middle of the month is a fair achievement.

But of course let's hope at least one or two win to give the bank a very nice little boost before March rolls in!


Friday, 27 February 2009

Not happening today

Well you can't win them all obviously,

Today's results,

Toni Alcala came a well beaten fifth at 7/1 SP

Farmers Lad fell when in touch, at an SP of 11/2

And I've just got into the car to listen to the commentary of the 4.55 with Hillridge seemingly running a half decent race to finish 4th/16 at an SP of 7/1

Unless I have an absolutely hideous day tomorrow, it looks certain that February will end as a winning month, which was the target from day one, and something which looked very unlikely this time last week, so all in all pretty pleased. Good luck all.

Today's selections

Ok we have three runners today:

Toni Alcala in the 1.50 at Fakenham taken 6-1 with bet365
Farmers Lad in the 2.40 at Newbury, 6-1 with william hill
Hillridge in the 4.55 at Newbury, 8-1 with bet365

Thursday, 26 February 2009

Much more like it!!!

Ok the end is near to our recent poor run!

Yesterday saw a couple of wins, and a bit of drama too.

3.10 Folkestone - Bearneed Boy 13/2 - FIRST - SP 7-2
3.40 Folkestone - Pocketwood 11/1 - SECOND (beaten 3/4 length!) - SP 13-2
4.10 Folkestone - Russian Trigger 15/2- FIRST - SP 12-1(!!)

Funny how I was just saying the other day how drifters can still win - it's the early morning money which often counts for a lot.

Anyway my belief yesterday (and in fact the last week or two) that Bet365 gave guaranteed best price to enhanced win odds was yesterday ripped up and chucked out of the window, when Russian Trigger settled at 15/2. Now this is my mistake, but I genuinely thought all early prices covered the same guarantee, and when you go on to the enhanced win page there is no indication that guaranteed odds doesn't act.

Anyway, after a phone call to the Bet365 customer service team, suggesting things weren't made obvious, and could they just this once settle at SP given it was my (mistaken) belief that I was getting the guaranteed odds, they did it for me! So thanks to those guys, I'm really impressed - so five stars to them.

The bank has now been boosted a fair bit, although not to its peak, so we're still playing with £6.24 win singles. It's up to £271.61, so the graph has a bit more of a pleasant look to it!

Wednesday, 25 February 2009

Today's bets

Ok let's hope the fightback can continue with one or more of these.

Ironically all the best prices were with Bet365, among others, so I've taken advantage of their "enhanced win only prices" which is a bit of a bonus, particularly with it still being guaranteed best odds.

3.10 Folkestone - Bearneed Boy 13/2
3.40 Folkestone - Pocketwood 11/1
4.10 Folkestone - Russian Trigger 15/2

Tuesday, 24 February 2009

Back on track! (Well, sort of)

Finally a nice winner with Donald Will Do getting up to win quite comfortably in the end. (SP 4-1)

Nelson ran a reasonable race without really threatening to finish third. (SP 6-1).

It's always reassuring to get a winner although I'll need a few more to get back to around the £310 level. The selections over the last two or three weeks have been running quite consistently without getting to the post first as much as I need but, as mentioned before, all these streaks are completely to be expected, purely in mathamatic terms if nothing else.

Still, it's nice to see the run come to an end! Hopefully there'll be a couple more winners before February is out. I'd much prefer not to have a losing month!

Today's selections

Well a couple today, but unfortunately I've missed the best price of both of these, damn annoying but couldn't be helped because of work commitments.

Donald Will Do in the 3.20 at Leicester, 7-1 with Totesport (should have got 10-1)
Nelson in the 4.50 at Leicester 4-1 with Bet365 (shold have got 5-1)

A twisted version of sod's law will probably mean one of these will win!

Monday, 23 February 2009

The run continues

Well the little break hasn't killed off the virus, with today's selections finishing -nowhere - and then unseated (while going nicely) - being today's results.

Sps were 9-1 (!) and 9/2.

Thank goodness I have total confidence in the long term success of this plan or else I'd be getting concerned.

As it is, I'm sure things will turn around soon!!

At least we had decent value with the second of the selections. Not sure why Intensifier drifted so much, although he did run a pig of a race so maybe something amiss in the end.

It does happen that well backed horses can drift before winning, so I always like to back with a bookies that gives guaranteed odds on the rare occassions that happens (although I would never forego that for a half point worse price in the morning).

I find betfair (via a phone call) to be a decent alternative to the bookies when I can't get near a laptop or computer, but its prices are often half a point or so worse off than the best bookies, particularly at the time I get on.

Today's selections

Back from a lovely break and now on with business!

At Plumpton,

Intensifier in the 3.50, taken 7.4 with betfair
Portrait Royale in the 4.20, taken 8.4 with betfair

Had to go with betfair for them both because I was out and about this morning.

Thursday, 19 February 2009

Comeback delayed

Well Hickory Lane went off at 11/1 but only finished 5th.

The other was a non-runner in the end, which is probably a blessing with the way things are going just at the moment. The current losing run is now 17, which is not that far behind the longest ever losing run of 27, but I'm sure things will turn soon!

Anyway away we go for the weekend and battle will recommence on Monday. Have a good one.

Let's get back on track with these two

Hickory Lane, in the 3.10 at Ayr, 20-1 with betfred.
Skenfrith in the 4.15 at Ayr, 10-1 with bet365 (enhanced win only price)

These the last two before we go away tomorrow, so would be nice to have a winner or two!

Wednesday, 18 February 2009

Today's results

Both ran with a fair bit of credit, but again we've missed out.

One Sniff came 4th, at 7-1SP, with Harry Tricker 3rd at 7-2.

When you're working at an average strike rate of around 17% it's natural to have these sort of runs occassionaly which is why I'm pleased to have been betting at just 2% of the bank.

This weekend we're heading away on Friday until Sunday, and won't have computer access. Previously I've asked others to cover things or tried to get on via my mobile but this time I'll just pass on by and get things going again on Monday, as I don't think it's fair on my wife to be messing around with the horses on what's likely to be our last proper break away before the little one comes along.

Today's bets

Fingers crossed for these two.

One Sniff in the 3.20 at Doncaster 15-2 with bet365 (enhanced win only - guaranteed odds)
Harry Tricker in the 3.35 at Ludlow, 4-1 with Ladbrokes.

Knocking on the door

Well that was a bit of a nasty day.

Three seconds, including one (Laustra Bad) beaten in a photo on the line.

SPs were 33-1, 9-2, 5-1 and 9-1.

I've just checked and seen I could have had an 8-1 winner as well today, if I'd been a little less picky about my selections. That follows Sunday when again I talked myself out of a 10-1 shot which bolted up because it didn't quite have the credentials I look for. Hey-ho, you can't back them all and it's important to be disciplined of course, but it's still a bit nasty. At least it shows the winners are out there!

Just looking at my recent poor run, with one win in 30 attempts, I've noticed that of those 29 losers, 15 have been placed, including 9 seconds. So that's a 51.7% placed strike rate at average odds of 6.8/1 - not too bad really, just need a few more of them to get to the post first! Roll on tomorrow.

Tuesday, 17 February 2009

Today's bets

Well I've taken advantage of bet365's "enhanced win only" prices today, and have also gone against one of my ideals and backed a horse at less than 4/1. Anyway here they are today:

Well Done You in the 2.50 at Taunton, taken 60/1 with bet365
Laustra Bad in the 4.00 at Southwell, taken 11/2 with paddy power
Traffic Control in the 4.30 at Southwell, taken 15/4 with bet365
Dew Drop Inn in the 4.50 at Taunton, taken 14/1 with william hill

All of these, as has been the bet since the bank reached it's recent peak, are £6.24 win singles and have guaranteed best prices.

Monday, 16 February 2009

My first attempt

I just wanted to write quickly about a previous attempt to "win a fortune", which again was centred purely around the following of market moves.

Basically I built up a bank from around £200, which was from a bonus at work, to around £500, when I started taking proper notes, using excel. The graph on the right shows its progress from that point, in January 2006 to July 2007. As you may be able to see, it rose to a peak of just over £3000, but it was built on fragile ground as the staking plan was just too aggressive. I was using a 10% of bank staking plan, and while it built up very quickly when things were going well, it also dropped extremely quickly when I had a losing run. In the end, after I had changed staking plan and was enjoying a relatively calm ride I had to postpone things for my wedding, so the money was taken out to help pay for that. For one reason or another it took me a year to revisit things, and now after a few more months research here I am.

I have shown this is a profitable thing to do, and with patience and a little luck, I can make it work again. I just need to keep things a little steadier this time - and stick to it!

At least we had the value!

Well they all ran quite well in their own way, but no winners today.

The important thing is that again we had the value (just).

Gobejolly started 10/1, Babe Hefron 5/1 and Rosie All Over went off at 7/2.

Turning into a bit of a tough run but these things happen and tomorrow is another day.

Today's bets

Right, we have three today.

Goobe Jolly, in the 2.05 at Market Rasen, on at 11/1 with William Hill
Babe Heffron in the 2.15 at Carlisle, on at 6/1 with Bet365
Rosie All Over in the 4.30 at Carlisle, on at 5/1 with Ladbrokes

Fingers crossed we can get back on track soon!

Starting out

Ok this is the first posting of my first ever blog. I'm doing it because I think it might be quite fun to track the progress of a horse racing system which I'm convinced will make my fortune.

I started with £150 and am looking to turn it into (with any luck) many thousand!

This began in November 2008, although my research goes back many more years than that. I like to follow market moves and am convinced it's a successful way of punting.

This is how it's gone so far:

Starting bank: £150

November: 29 bets - 3 wins - LOSS: £32.58 (-21.7% of bank) - Total bank: £117.42

December: 43 bets - 9 wins - PROFIT: £80.91 (+69% of bank) - Total bank: £198.33

January: 39 bets - 6 wins - PROFIT: £32.70 (+16% of bank) - Total bank: £231.03

February (so far) 10 bets - 1 win - LOSS: £31.22 (-13.5% of bank) - Total bank: £199.81

This only tells part of the story, because the bank had actually climbed to a peak of £312.20 (as you might be able to see from the graph below), but since then I've had one win in 23 races - not a good run at all! I like to back at decent prices though (at least 4-1), and my current average win price is 6.47-1, with a strike rate of 15.7%, so long runs are to be expected.

As for my staking plan, I am currently staking a 2% of my total bank, with a ratchet setting so once the bank reaches a new peak the 2% figure is found and not reduced until the bank climbs to a new peak.

At the moment, that is the way I will play it, until the bank gets to £1000, at which point I will reduce my stake by half if I was to halve the bank half in total. I have many many months (years in fact) of research behind me and have found that that extra caution is important if I don't want a bust bank. It's entirely possible I wouldn't go bust keeping at the 2% ratchet figure but I don't want to take risks, and have found that there is a good chance at some point over 1,000 +bets that the bank would inevitably go bust because of a losing run with the sort of strike rate I am getting. I use a staking plan programme called The Staking Machine by the way, and can highly recommend it (

Anyway so over the course of this blog, I hopefully will chart my growing bank.

I'll also try to put up the horses I back at some point during the day charting what bookies and price I get.

This is a blog for my own purpose really but if you are interested in it then you're very welcome to join me on my journey! Thanks for reading.