Wednesday, 30 November 2011

November Analysis

As we've written about before, monthly updates don't really matter a whole lot, in terms of what we're looking for is profits over 12 months+. However it is of course quite interesting to see how we do month to month, so here's our look at November 2011.

We finished -6.5pts down in the end, and if we could have avoided the first seven days we'd have finished nicely in profit, such was our poor start to the month.

Here are the stats:

Bets: 54
Wins: 7 (12.96%)
2nds: 8 (14.81%)
3rds: 8 (14.81%)
Placed total: 14 (42.59%)
Average odds taken: 7.34/1
Average SP: 6.17/1
Average win odds: 6.21/1
Profit/Loss: -6.5pts
Return On Investment: -11.4%

Historically we would have expected one more winner than the seven we had, with our win rate a couple of ticks below standard (normally just shy of 15%). In the main, the selections have been running well, with more than 42% making the frame (naturally we ignore our third place finishers in races of less than eight runners). That placed monthly total is our third highest of 2011. With eight seconds at prices of up to 14/1 it's easy to see how the month could have been profitable, but still, it wasn't quite to be.

42 of our selections started either shorter or the same price as was available ten minutes after email delivery (78%), which is very pleasing, and we beat SP by an average of almost 1.2pts per selection. Multiply that by 1000 bets and you can see where our profits will come from going forward.

Qualitee is Quality

We had no selections yesterday, but today we had a winning day to end the month, with Qualitee running out a terrific winner at Uttoxeter for us. We had one placed from our other three selections.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.00 Catterick Emotive 1pt 5/1 genererally inc. Bet365/Lads 11/2 Totesport/Betfred
2.50 Hereford Ours 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/Hills/VC/Coral/PP/Totesport&others
3.10 Uttoxeter Qualitee 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Lads/Hills/Coral/Boylesports
3.20 Hereford Just Playfull 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Hills/Coral/Boylesports 9/1Totesport/Skybet/Betfred

Emotive was weak on course and started at 13/2 and never really showed at all in a disappointing effort.

Ours, who went off at 15/2 after being very strongly supported this morning, was up there for a good part of the race but suddenly dropped away and was pulled out. Perhaps something was amiss?

Then we had Qualitee, who was well backed right into 7/2 on her first handicap start over the minimum chase trip. She was given a lovely positive ride, and jumped for fun and the win was never in much doubt some way from home. She won by 17 lengths officially.

And then we looked to Just Playfull to really give us a nice end to the month, and was pleased to see him supported into 11/2 SP. He raced prominently, jumping nicely for the most part, but just lost his place a couple from home, finishing third, comfortably clear of fourth.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Emotive, 8th/11, 5/1 --- 13/2
Ours, PU/9, 6/1 --- 15/2
Qualitee, 1st/7, 13/2 --- 7/2
Just Playfull, 3rd/11, 9/1 --- 11/2

So November ends positively, and with plenty of grounds for optimism for the coming weeks. We've had more than 40% of our selections placed this month, with no less than eight seconds, and it won't take much of a tweak in fortune to have us make big strides forward again.

We'll be doing our monthly review soon.

Monday, 28 November 2011

Kilkenny the star

A small profit from the last update, with one winner at 13/2 kicking off our Saturday, but things not quite building from there.

So let's start on Saturday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
12.45 Bangor Kilkenny All Star 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Hills/VC/Coral & others
2.05 Newbury Titan De Sarti 1pt 8/1 in most places
3.00 Bangor Arctic Wings 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Skybet/SportingBet 8/1 Totesport/Betfred
3.45 Newbury Osric 1pt 9/1 in most places

Kilkenny All Star gave us a perfect start to Saturday, who was nicely backed for Sue Smith into 5/1. He had dropped to a good mark and was given a terrific, determined ride and he got up near the line. Lovely!

On to Titan De Sarti, who disputed the lead for much of the race before about three out and then faded away, after going off at 13/2.

Arctic Wings was next up, and again we got the price with Tony Carroll's six year old going off at 5/1. He probably wasn't helped by the dawdle they went early on, and subsequently got outpaced when things quickened up three out. He then stayed on well into fourth, an annoying race really from our point of view.

Then came Osric who went off a very well supported 7/2 and looked to be coming with a promising run as they turned for home, but he couldn't sustain it to finish 6th.

On Sunday we had a second placed finish from our one selection which ran:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.25 Carlisle Etxalar 1pt 11/2 +generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/Skybet/Boylesports
3.00 Carlisle City Ground 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/Stan James 9/1 Skybet/Boylesports 10/1 Totesport/Betfred/Bluesq

Etxalar ran a good race, always there and in contention, but he just couldn't quite go with the eventual winner and although he stayed on again, he could only finish 2nd, beaten six lengths, after going off at 11/2.

City Ground was a non-runner.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
12.30 Folkestone What's For Tea 1pt 14/1+generally inc. 16/1 Lads/Coral/VC/Boyle/SportingBet

And we'll never know whether we missed out on a decent pay day, with Paddy Butler's mare going off a nicely backed 9/1 but being brought down by the favourite at the second hurdle...

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 26th November 2011:

Kilkenny All Star, 1st/6, 13/2 --- 5/1
Titan De Sarti, 8th/11, 8/1 --- 13/2
Arctic Wings, 4th/9, 7/1 --- 5/1
Osric, 6th/ 14 9/1 --- 7/2

Sunday 27th November 2011:

Etxalar, 2nd/7, 6/1 --- 11/2
City Ground NR

Monday 28th November 2011:

What's For Tea, BD/6, 16/1 --- 9/1

So a 1.5pt profit since the end of Friday.

Just to say as well, our thoughts are of course with Gary Speed's friends and family. A real footballing legend who will be very sadly missed.

Friday, 25 November 2011

Poor day

Well last Friday we were heading into the weekend with a bit of a spring in our step after one winner from our one selection.

Not so this week, with four picks today not doing the business, although at least one gave us a good run for our money, finishing second after trading odds on, not that that's any great consolation!

So we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
12.10 Musselburgh Isla Patriot 1pt 8/1+ generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/VC/Coral/Betfred/Bluesq
2.35 Doncaster Gentleman Anshan 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Totesport 7/1 Lads/VC/SportingBet/Bluesq
2.45 Newbury Carribs Leap 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Lads/Coral/Totesport&others maybe some 10/1 Boyle
2.55 Musselburgh Sheriff Hall 1pt 6/1+generally inc 13/2 VC/Boyle

Three of these four started shorter than we had this morning (as usual, prices taken ten minutes after email delivery).

Isla Patriot went off a nicely supported 6/1 shot and looked promising for a stride or two about four from home, but his run soon flattened out.

Gentleman Anshan was our drifter, going off at 10/1 but looked to be going nicely as they turned for home but frustratingly soon lost his place.

Carribs Leap was in mid division and throughout apart from when things quickened, and he was well beaten, after starting at 8/1.

And so we turned to Sheriff Hall, who did his best to make the day a profitable one for us. He eased into a big lead, which he held until he was headed going over the last fence, and to his great credit he battled back, and was a bit short of room as he had to be switched right, but he went down a battling second, after going off at 9/2.

Confirmation of prices with prices (advised --- SP):

Isla Patriot, 7th/8, 8/1 --- 6/1
Gentleman Anshan, 5th/9, 13/2 --- 10/1
Carribs Leap, 8th/10, 9/1 --- 8/1
Sheriff Hall, 2nd/10, 6/1 --- 9/2

We'll try to update over the weekend, but it's most likely that our next update will be on Monday. Until then, have a great weekend!

Thursday, 24 November 2011

Excellent Emily

A nice winner today, so a 3pt profit since the last update.

Let's start yesterday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.50 Fontwell Madame Jasmine 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Hills/Stan James 7/1 Lads/Coral/Boylesports

We got some nice value with Madame Jasmine, with the selection going off at 4/1, but didn't get our rewards, although she didn't run too badly. She traded at just over 6/4 in running as she closed on the leaders but seemed to not quite stay the trip and finished third.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.20 Newbury Tony Star 1pt 13/2+ generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Bet365/Boyle/Totesport/SkyBet/Betfred/Bluesq
4.00 Taunton Posh Emily 1pt 5/1 generally and maybe some 11/2 Totesport/BetFred

We got the price with these two as well.

Tony Star ran pretty well for Philip Hobbs, staying on nicely, well clear of third, just a shame he ran into one much too good in Paul Nicholls' Empire Levant, after going off at 9/2.

And then we turned to Posh Emily to give us a return, and so she did. Always up there, it looked like the eventual second had skipped clear, and she actually traded 100 in running before finishing really powerfully to win quite comfortably in the end, by nearly a couple of lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday 23rd November 2011:

Madame Jasmine, 3rd/6, 13/2 --- 4/1

Thursday 24th November 2011:

Tony Star, 2nd/6, 7/1 --- 9/2
Posh Emily, 1st/7, 5/1 --- 7/2

We're still a bit down for the month but since November 7th we're 7.5pts up and there's still plenty of time to spin the month into profit, let's hope we can bag a decent priced winner or two in the next few days, we're due one.

Tuesday, 22 November 2011

Ready for lift off

Not a great last couple of days and November's proving a bit of a frustrating month. Just when things get back on track and we look to kick on, things have just dropped away a little again.

If feels like it's time for a decent bank boost, long term members know that when they come along things really can be explosive. It's been a little while now since our last rush, and every day which passes means we're closer to variance falling back on our side again.

Anyway let's start our look back with yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.40 Kempton Missionaire 1pt 4/1+generally 9/2 VC, ToteSport&others, 5/1 Lads

And Missionaire was not our finest hour of 2011. A big mover in the morning, he went on a huge drift on-course, and went off an extraordinary 12/1. Not really the idea and so it panned out. Although he was up there for a while, and actually looked to be travelling ok for a moment or too, he weakened out of it when the pace quickened to finish fourth.

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30 Sedgefield Ottos Quercus 1pt 6/1+ generally inc/ 13/2 Bet365/Coral/Boyle 7/1 Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet/Bluesq
3.00 Sedgefield Finbin 1pt 8/1 generally
3.30 Sedgefield Arrow Barrow 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 7/1 Bet365/Totesport/Coral/Betfred/Stan James
3.30 Sedgefield Lochore 1pt 10/1 generally

Ottos Quercus was held up and made some good ground up to get placed in third but was never really able to challenge the front two, after being nicely backed into 9/2.

Finbin drifted to 10/1 and never travelled a yard.

Better were the displays from Arrow Barrow and Lochore, who both looked possible contenders at various stages. Arrow Barrow travelled nicely for a long time, but faded into fourth, while Lochore came with a good looking challenge but couldn't follow it through. They started at 11/2 and 8/1 respectively.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 21st November 2011

Missionaire, 4th/7, 9/2 --- 12/1

Tuesday 22nd November 2011

Ottos Quercus, 3rd/10, 13/2 --- 9/2
Finbin, PU/10, 8/1 --- 10/1
Arrow Barrow, 4th/14, 7/1 --- 11/2
Lochore, 6th/14, 10/1 --- 8/1

On to tomorrow!

Sunday, 20 November 2011

Forward a bit, back a bit

We've dropped back a few points this weekend, but we were quite close to a cracking return when our 2pt 14/1 shot on Saturday came second. Once one or two of those go in we'll be flying again.

Let's start with yesterday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.30 Ascot Annimation 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Bet365/Hills/SkyBet 14/1Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet
3.20 Ascot Dan Breen 1pt 9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Bet365

Totesport held Annimation at 14/1 for a good while but the support really came later, with Seamus Mullins' 7yo going off at 6/1. She ran a good race, travelling nicely, but the winner just took the race by the scruff of the neck by going for home about three out and ours was a little too far off the pace to pick up the move. She stayed on strongly into second, but well beaten by the winner. Would have been a lovely pick-up, but not quite to be this time.

Dan Breen was well supported as David Pipe looked to continue his good form, going off at 7/2. While he was up there for a good while he suddenly dropped away in most disappointing fashion. Ironically his stable mate won the race.

And then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30 Exeter Baseball Ted 1pt 5/1 generally inc Lads/Hills/Bet365
2.45 Towcester Beat All Out 1pt 9/1 + generally, inc 10/1 Bet365, 11/1 Boyles 12/1 Lads

And neither of these did a whole lot for us to say the least.

Baseball Ted was looking to win the race for the second year running and helped set the pace, but faded out of things, after going off 5/1

We didn't see much of Beat All Out's performance with the fog descending at Towcester, but it was clear it wasn't up to much, although he did seem to pick up in the middle of the race before dropping away, after going off at 10/1

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 19th November 2011

Annimation, 2nd/11, 14/1 --- 6/1
Dan Breen, 8th/11, 9/2 --- 7/2

Sunday 20th November 2011

Baseball Ted, 7th/7, 5/1 --- 5/1
Beat All Out, 12th/12, 10/1 --- 10/1

Friday, 18 November 2011

Back to the winners enclosure

A good winner from our one selection today.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.55 Ascot Featherbed Lane 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads

Featherbed Lane was nicely supported on his first start for Philip Hobbs, going off a 4/1 shot, and was shaken up a fair way from home to make sure he was competitive. The tactics work as he stayed on really stoutly to win by more than two lengths from the well backed favourite, and could be one to stay on the right side of.

Confirmation of results with price (advised --- SP):

Featherbed Lane, 1st/9, 5/1 --- 4/1

Thursday, 17 November 2011

2pter missing the target

We've not had a 2pt selection win for quite a while, although overall we're well up in terms of our staking for the year. It'll come along sooner or later.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
12.55 Hereford Acapulco Bay 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Coral/Totesport/Betfred/Paddy Power 14/1 Lads/SportingBet maybe some 16/1 Stan James
2.20 Market Rasen Le Burf 1pt 4/1+ generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Coral/Totesport/Betfred/Stan James

Acapulco Bay, running from a lower handicap mark than when he won nicely at Warwick a couple of years ago, was nicely backed this morning, but weak on course. He ran well enough for a while, but faded towards the end to finish well beaten. He went off at 12/1.

Le Burf ran with some credit, staying on purposefully at the end to be placed, after going off at 5/1. Things just happened a bit quickly for him in the middle section of the race, but he's probably on a mark he can win off.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Acapulco Bay, 10th/15, 12/1 --- 12/1
Le Burf, 3rd/10, 5/1 --- 5/1

Wednesday, 16 November 2011

Nought for one

Just the one selection today, in the marathon chase at Hexham.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.40 Hexham Matmata de Tendron 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 PP/Skybet/SportingBet/Boylesports

Matmata De Tendron tried his best for Tony Kelly, up there for a lot of the four mile contest and at spells looking like he was travelling well enough, but he began to tire a fair way from home and finished in the end beaten by around 20 lengths back in 6th, after starting at 7/1.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Matmata De Tendron, 6th/10, 9/2 --- 7/1

Tuesday, 15 November 2011

Limited space available

For the first time in more than four months, we have limited space available to join our service.

Our prices are as follows:

One month: £22.50
Three months: £65 (£21.66 per month)
Six months: £115 (£19.17 per month)
Twelve months: £205 (£17.08 per month)

If you would like to receive text alerts in addition to email, that will cost an extra £2 per month, just to cover our costs.

We don't expect to have our doors open for long, and as soon as we reach our limit we will once again close up shop, to protect prices for existing members.

This year not only do we have an ROI of more than 25%, with profits to date of nearly 160pts, we have also been given an excellent review by the highly respected Secret Betting Club and were also awarded their "Best Newcomer" award.

We fully expect to have another very strong NH season in the coming months so there may be no better time that to join us.

If you have any questions, do please contact us.

All the best,


PS - if you're wondering how Tuesday went for us - we had no selections today.

Monday, 14 November 2011

Results catch up

First of all, many apologies for the lack of regular updates over the last few days. Normal service will now be resumed from now on.

It's been a fairly quiet, yet profitable, last few days.

Let's start last Wednesday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.10 Bangor Incentivise 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Coral

Richard Lee's 8yo went off a 13/2 shot and things happened a bit too quickly for him, and while he stayed on nicely towards the end he was never really going to get close to the front couple, finishing fourth in the end.

We had no selections on Thursday, so onto Friday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.20 Newc Raining Horse 1pt 7-1 general (15-2 SportingBet)

Raining Horse was well backed into 9/2 co-favourite and looked a big player for quite a while, going almost 6/4 in running. But the 9yo hit the wall suddenly and dropped away tamely, to finish well beaten.

On to Saturday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.30 Uttoxeter Mighty Monty 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Lads/Coral 7/1 Hills
2.55 Wetherby Douglas Julian 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/Betfred/Boyles
3.15 Uttoxeter Amazing Star 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Coral/Totesport+others

And this was the good day we were confident we had coming, with a couple of nice winners.

Mighty Monty opened on track at 6/1 but drifted to 8s at post time, and put in a really gutsy performance to win by half a length. He travelled well for much of the race, took it up three out, and saw it out gamely from two strong finishers, great stuff. While beating SP is the target, as we've said many times sometimes the early money is very telling even if there is a late drift, and it can give us an extra bit of profit too thanks to best odds guaranteed.

Next up was Douglas Julian, another drifter, this time to 11/1. Not a similar result though, after pressing the front two for plenty of the race he dropped tamely away. This one's possibly getting back close to a winning mark though.

And then we had Amazing Star, who put in a stellar performance for us at Uttoxeter. He was always travelling really nicely and it was one of those where we could be pretty confident about having the winner a fair way from home, although he did make a mistake at the third last. He won by just over three lengths barely extended, after starting a well supported 7/2.

Onto Sunday and we had a couple of big priced picks:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
12.25 Fontwell The Clyda Rover 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Bet365 12/1 Hills
12.55 Fontwell Silsula 2pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Lads/VC maybe some 18/1Totesport/Betfred

Both of these were very well backed and both ran respectably for a long time before just fading towards the end.

First up The Clyda Rover, who went off at 5/1, and although he was being cajoled along for a fair while, was up there battling until a couple of flights from home when he faded out of contention. He was certainly trying that's for sure.

Then Silsula, our first 2pt bet for a while and we were pleased to see her continue to be backed right into 7/1. She was trying a big step up in trip for the first time and ran well for a long time, up with the leaders going over the second last fence, trading at around 7/4 in running, but at that point she began to empty out and then she faded on the run in to finish unplaced. Would have been a very good return, but a game effort.

And then today, Monday, we had no selections.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday November 9th 2011:

Incentivise, 4th/11, 5/1 --- 13/2

Thursday November 10th 2011:

No selections

Friday November 11th 2011:

Raining Horse, 7th/9, 7/1 --- 9/2

Saturday November 12th 2011:

Mighty Monty, 1st/13, 13/2 --- 8/1
Douglas Julian, 7th/11, 8/1 --- 11/1
Amazing Star, 1st/11, 11/2 --- 7/2

Sunday November 13th 2011:

The Clyda Rover, 4th/10, 11/1 --- 5/1
Silsula, 5th/6, 14/1 --- 7/1

Monday November 14th 2011:

No selections

So all in all, a 7.5pt profit from our last update, leaving the month just a shade down at -1.5pts. We've picked up 13.5pts of profit in the last seven days, from just nine selections, which shows how quickly things can spin around once we get a result or two. Hopefully we can push on from here and have another profitable week.

Friday, 11 November 2011

Quiet few days

Not a lot to report from the last three days!

On Wednesday we had one runner, which came fourth, no selections yesterday, and then today we had another unplaced.

We'll bring a full update soon, most likely on Monday, where we'll look back at these two selections, and those from the weekend too.

Have a good weekend!

Tuesday, 8 November 2011

Altogether better

A much better day today, a gutsy 7/1 winner and our other finished second after halving in price from 8/1 to 4/1.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30 Sedgefield Gavroche Gaugain 1pt 7/1 generally
3.20 Huntingdon Break The Chain 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 15/2 Bet365 8/1 Lads/Boyle/Betfred &others

Gavroche Gaugain, who went off at 11/2, was prominent for much of the contest and took it up a couple of fences from home. He needed a good jump at the end, got it, and ran on really gamely to land the spoils by half a length. The second, Night In Milan looked a big threat and traded odds on, but couldn't get there.

Next up we had Break The Chain and with the 8/1 holding up for a good while it was pleasing to see the selection go off at 4s. He was up there for much of the race but wasn't able to live with the winner in the end, going down by six lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Gavroche Gaugain, 1st/8, 7/1 --- 11/2
Break The Chain, 2nd/8, 8/1 --- 4/1

So a shame we couldn't quite get the double up, but a decent day and we look forward to tomorrow.

Monday, 7 November 2011

More placed but..

We had a couple more placed today but that's no good for us win-only backers, so a poor day, with four points lost. Not a lot of consolation around price-wise either, which is particularly disappointing.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.20 Carlisle Inga Bird 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Coral/Bet365/SportingBet
2.05 Hereford Changing Lanes 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Coral/Totesport/Betfred
3.30 Carlisle Teenando 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads/Bet365/Stan James
4.15 Hereford Priest Field 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Bet365/Coral+others

Inga Bird stayed on well into second but was never going to catch the winner, after starting at 13/2.

Changing Lanes, who started at 13/2, ran really poorly, just never travelling and out of the race from quite some way out.

Teenando put in a game effort, up there throughout, he didn't have the toe to go with the winner but stayed on well for third, after going off at 9/1.

Priest Field led for a fair part of the contest, but was readily passed by the principles to cap a frustrating afternoon. He started at 7/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Inga Bird, 2nd/11, 9/2 --- 13/2
Changing Lanes, PU/11, 7/1 --- 13/2
Teenando, 3rd/8, 10/1 --- 9/1
Priest Field, 9th/10, 5/1 --- 7/1

8 of our 15 win selections have been placed this month, which is no consolation at all for those members who follow us in backing win-only (apart from perhaps a bit of a run for our money).

A tough start to the month but things can turn very quickly and we look forward for a nice return or two soon.

Results catch up

It's proving a frustrating November so far results-wise, but at least from a price point of view it's been a decent start to the month.

Let's look back at the last three days, starting on Friday:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.40 Hexham Mighty Magnus 1pt 6/1 generally plus 13/2 Hills/Coral/Boyle/ 7/1 Skybet/Totesport/Betfred

Mighty Magnus went off at 5/1 and was up there for a long time, before fading from around two out to finish well behind.

Then on Saturday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.10 Wincanton Point West 1pt 7/1 + generally inc. 15/2 SportingBet 8/1 Totesport/VC/Betfred
2.05 Kelso The Shy Man 1pt 6/1 + generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Totesport/Bluesq 7/1 SportingBet
3.00 Sandown Paintball 1pt 6/1 + generally inc. 13/2 Totesport/Boyle/Betfred 7/1 Lads

Point West went off at 8/1 and was given plenty to do from the back, he was staying on towards the end but was never really going to get there when he fell at the last.

The Shy Man started at 11/2 but never showed up, beaten a long way from home.

Better from Paintball, who was backed into 4/1 and stayed on to be placed although was never going to get close to the easy winner.

So, on to Sunday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10 Ffos Las No Principles 1pt 7/1 +generally inc. 15/2 Hills 8/1 Bet365/Skybet/Totesport/Betfred
3.25 Market Rasen Beamazed 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 15/2 Totesport/Betfred 8/1 Lads/Skybet/Boyle
4.00 Market Rasen North Stack 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Lads

No Principles was held up right at the back but looked to be going well enough and moved up through the field late on, but just didn't have the out and out pace to really challenge the front couple, finishing 6th but only beaten just over three lengths, after going off at 6/1.

Beamazed was right up there and looked to be going well (touching nearly 5/4 in running) until the winner came up behind and quickened past him a couple of fences from home, finishing second in the end, starting at 15/2 (after opening on course at 11/2)

Then came North Stack, who was another seemingly going along well enough, touching odds in running on his chasing and handicap debut, but was just a bit outpaced close to home, going down in third by five lengths.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 4th November:

Mighty Magnus, 5th/7, 13/2 --- 5/1

Saturday 5th November:

Point West, F/13, 7/1 --- 8/1
The Shy Man, PU/11, 6/1 --- 11/2
Paintball, 3rd/12, 6/1 --- 4/1

Sunday 6th November:

No Principles, 6th/10, 8/1 --- 6/1
Beamazed, 2nd/7, 8/1 --- 15/2
North Stack, 3rd/10, 11/2 ---9/2

So all in all a frustrating collection of results but from a price stats point of view 6 out of 7 went off shorter than we had in the morning so we're happy with that.

In fact 10 out of 11 selections for us this month have started shorter than we had, so from that point of view a strong start to the month, the winners will come along in their own time.

Friday, 4 November 2011

Next Time Out Analysis

One of the questions we field on a more regular basis than most is “how do your selections do next time out?” Sure there are some which stand out, a big priced pick which doesn’t do the business for us and then a day or two later scoots home at even bigger odds. But we’ve never before monitored them closely enough to assess whether they’re genuinely worth following blindly.

So now we’ve looked at the next time out performances of each of our selections from this year, up until we went into our two month pause, on August 31st. The results are quite interesting. There is a danger with this sort of approach that one may be inclined to back fit the results to find an angle which appears to be one which works, so before we approach a number of different angles, let’s look first of all at how each and every selection has done, assuming he or she has raced again, after the horse was a selection for us:

All prices are to BSP so it can probably be assumed that better returns could be had with prices taken earlier in the day.

First of all, of the 552 selections advised by us from January 1st 2011 to August 31st, 486 have run at least once since.

Here are the stats backing each and every selections next time out:

Bets: 486

Wins: 71

Strike Rate: 14.61%

Average Odds: 16.75

Average Win Odds: 7.35

Profit/Loss: +13.12pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +2.7%

So a profit, although not a great one! That’s a fantastic starting point though, and one to really work on. Let’s look at a great number of different variables now which may improve returns for us.

First of all, let’s strike out all horses which drifted from the price we advised in the morning.

Bets: 366

Wins: 51

Strike Rate: 15.03%

Average Odds: 16.17

Average Win Odds: 7.60

Profit/Loss: +33.85pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +9.25%

So a better result, that’s quite interesting, as one of the theories about why a horse may drift on track late on is that connections have seen the price gone and have waited for another day, but this shows that perhaps isn’t generally the case.

The following couple of tables will focus on these 366 horses which didn’t drift from the price advised by us in the morning.

First of all, backing all horses which start next time at BSP at 8.0 or bigger:

Bets: 218

Wins: 20

Strike Rate: 9.17%

Average Odds: 23.75

Average Win Odds: 14.16

Profit/Loss: +51.98pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +23.84%

So by that we can deduce that backing horses at 7.9 or shorter next time out (from the 366) has actually returned a loss, which shows up like this:

Bets: 151

Wins: 35

Strike Rate: 23.18%

Average Odds: 5.07

Average Win Odds: 3.85

Profit/Loss: -21.13pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -13.99%

Interesting how a strike rate of 23.18%, with winners being fired in relatively often, is readily outgunned by a 9.17% strike rate above. Another example of how we should be patient when dealing with losing runs.

So let’s change tact for a moment, and look at ALL (regardless of drift) horses next time out which didn’t get placed for us (so should go off in theory a bigger price NTO):

Bets: 301

Wins: 35

Strike Rate: 11.63%

Average Odds: 21.05

Average Win Odds: 10.33

Profit/Loss: +44.23pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +14.69%

Not bad at all! So if we see a horse put in a stinker for us, perhaps we should look again next time out despite that.

Let’s run the same theory with the “on course drifters” struck out (leaving us with the 366):

Bets: 223

Wins: 26

Strike Rate: 11.59%

Average Odds: 20.24

Average Win Odds: 10.60

Profit/Loss: +40.02pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +17.95%

So a similar return, but with fewer bets, so a slightly better ROI.

What about those horses which placed for us, how did they do next time, first of all looking at ALL selections:

Bets: 184

Wins: 36

Strike Rate: 19.57%

Average Odds: 9.65

Average Win Odds: 4.45

Profit/Loss: -30.11pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -16.36%

So horses which ran well for us don’t appear to be worth following. What about just the winners?

Bets: 72

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 25%

Average Odds: 10.39

Average Win Odds: 4.73

Profit/Loss: +9.85pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +13.68%

So a profit there, although not a brilliant one. So it appears that those near misses for us (placed but not winning are really dangerous to follow next time out:

Bets: 112

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 16.07%

Average Odds: 9.17

Average Win Odds: 4.16

Profit/Loss: -39.96pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +35.68%

So those near misses for us really appear to cause some damage if they’re continued to be followed (notice the average odds for them is 9.17 compared to 21.08 for those which didn’t place for us).

Let’s look at those last three tables purely looking at the 366 “non drifters”. We should see an improvement.

These horses went off at our advised price or shorter – and were placed for us:

Bets: 143

Wins: 29

Strike Rate: 20.28%

Average Odds: 9.83

Average Win Odds: 4.91

Profit/Loss: -6.17pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -4.31%

So that’s much better than looking at all selections.

What about the 366 non drifters whittled down to just our winners, how do they do next time out?

Bets: 56

Wins: 13

Strike Rate: 23.21%

Average Odds: 12.03

Average Win Odds: 5.67

Profit/Loss: +14.69pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +26.23%

That’s a good ROI, and despite the shorter win odds a decent profit/loss. So those horses that don’t drift from the advised price and win for us appear good to follow next time out.

For completion let’s leave out those who are placed for us (but don’t win) from the 366:

Bets: 87

Wins: 16

Strike Rate: 18.39%

Average Odds: 8.42

Average Win Odds: 4.30

Profit/Loss: -20.86pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -23.98%

So, so far, we can see that based on the year to date, we’re better off focussing on those horses which don’t drift from our advised price next time out, which are either unplaced for us or win.

This makes sense, in that the winners have shown they can win and perhaps deserve to be followed, and those who are unplaced will naturally most usually go off a decent price next time.

So let’s look at all horses which a) went off shorter or the same as advised and b) either won or were unplaced:

Bets: 278

Wins: 39

Strike Rate: 14.03%

Average Odds: 18.55

Average Win Odds: 8.95

Profit/Loss: +55.71pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +20.04%

That is pretty good, but let’s look again using the same filters, with horses 8.0 or longer at BSP.

Bets: 180

Wins: 19

Strike Rate: 10.56%

Average Odds: 25.77

Average Win Odds: 13.85

Profit/Loss: +70.93pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +39.41%

That is a fantastic ROI, but perhaps we’re missing out on some of the profits of those winners for us going off at a shorter price NTO than 8.0.

Let’s combine horses unplaced for us going out at bigger than 8.0 NTO, with the winners for us going out NTO at whatever price.

First of all, the table of those horses unplaced for us going out bigger than 8.0 NTO:

Bets: 155

Wins: 15

Strike Rate: 9.68%

Average Odds: 26.56

Average Win Odds: 14.93

Profit/Loss: +58.56pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +37.78%

So combining the above with the “winners for us going out NTO regardless of price” looks like this:

Bets: 211

Wins: 28

Strike Rate: 13.27%

Average Odds: 22.70

Average Win Odds: 10.63

Profit/Loss: +73.25pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +34.72%

Looking at the results, there were numerous big priced seconds, including at 17.29, 19.75, 23.59, 32, 23.37, 35.9, 82.66, 25 and many more, so there really does appear to be something in this. And while we are staunch advocates of win-only betting, each-way returns appear promising. Based on the BSP prices (which we know is an inaccurate way of looking at it given the higher returns of win only bets in relation, but is useful nonetheless), a 100pt bank, betting 1pt e/w on each selection, turned into 280.92pts, an ROI of +42.87% - with a placed strike rate of 34.12%.

It’s possibly to boost results further by striking out very long odd horses (those priced at 50+, for example are 0/20, but of course this is a small sample and we would only need one of these going in at some point in next 29 efforts to turn this into a profit).

So what to do with this evidence? There certainly appears to be something in it, and of course profits could be boosted substantially if we were to take advantage of early prices and not rely on BSP. This would be an assumption on our behalf though; we do not have early price evidence NTO to go on to hand.

In the short term, we will do exactly what we have done with the 2011 results, and go through our 2010 selections next time outs, and take it from there. It will take a while to sift through them all, but if results are anything like this year then there certainly seems potential to boost our profits (and indirectly gain compensation for those horses which run unplaced for us in our original method!).

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