Wednesday, 30 October 2013

New Season

We are less than a couple of days from the start of our new "season", November 1st 2013.

No doubt, we have been frustrated with our flat-lining progress for all too long. A marginal profit here, a marginal loss there, all leading to many months of officially, overall, treading water. This we think is partly down to natural variance. In any series of a few hundred results there will be lean times, where results aren't what could naturally be expected if they were multiplied by 1 or 2 thousand.

But if we were to wait for that variance to play out, to official results, with the number of selections we make, we could be waiting quite some time before the next big push upwards. So we are bringing in a fundamental change which we are sure will increase our profit line.

It's a simple one, and one we hope will not cause too much insignificance for you.

We are bringing forward our selection time zone an hour, to around 10am, rather than 11am.

This change will mean that we will be getting on moves 1 or 2 pts earlier than we generally have been come 11am. Several years ago, when our market analysis began, long before this subscription service was even the slightest notion, 11am was chosen because it was considered the time an hour or so after most early backers had placed their bets, generally in the shops. 

Times have changed. Bookies price up the evening before much more now, they move prices by 8 in the morning in some cases, almost all are completely priced up by 9. If money is going down early on a selection then 11am is, these days, just giving the layers too much time to cut to a price they are happy to lay at. Sure we have consistently beaten SP even at 11 - but on numerous occasions our selections would have been a bigger price an hour before. We are working to small margins, and if our selections were just 1pt bigger on average over the last couple of years or so, our profits would have been large. 

It is at this point also where we again urge every subscriber to have access to as many online bookies as possible, ideally each and every one, and act as quickly as possible when the email/text/page update comes through.

Our flat-lining results started virtually the moment we started listing official results based on the best price with a handful of "respected" bookies, ten minutes after email dispatch.

This is not the only factor in the frustrating flat spell, but a contributing factor for sure. Official results going forward are going to be listed in accordance with the best price available at time of email dispatch, falling in line with virtually every other racing tipster out there.

There is undoubtedly - undoubtedly - profits to be made by backing quickly and early at the best prices with the selections we find. We have to base our results on a best-case scenario - to prove this point and to ensure the service has a long-term future.

Roll on November 1st.