Tuesday, 30 August 2011

Tough going

Really tough going this month.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.10 Warwick Downhill Skier 1pt 8/1 generally 9/1 Stan James
2.35 Huntingdon Ebony Diamond 1pt 9/2 generally 5/1 Bet365/VC
4.50 Epsom Licence To Till 1pt 5/1 generally

Downhill Skier would have had to sprout wings to win from the position he found himself in as he turned for home and while he stayed on he had no chance of getting there, after going off at 7/1.

Ebony Diamond (SP 3/1) was being niggled along in rear before suddenly getting back on the bridle and looking a threat about three out. Once that flight was jumped he immediately lost position again though and ended up well beaten.

Then came License To Till, another we got the price about, with the selection going off at 11/4. It counted for little in this particular instance though with Mark Johnston's 4yo fading most disappointingly out of contention.

Today we were back to Epsom for a couple of selections:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.50 Epsom Bells O Peover 1pt 9-2+ inc 5s Lads, Betfred, Hills
4.55 Epsom Penchesco 1pt 9-2gen, inc 5-1 S James, Sky, B365

The Bells O Peover was backed right into 3/1 at the off and put in a decent performance, trying to win from the front. It was never going to be easy but he battled away well with Wily Fox and won that duel, but was picked off by two who came from behind.

Nothing much to be said for Penchesco who went off at 6/1 and never for a moment like getting competitive.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 29th August 2011:

Downhill Skier, 6th/12, 8/1 --- 7/1
Ebony Diamond, 8th/8, 5/1 --- 3/1
License To Till, 8th/9, 5/1 --- 11/4

Tuesday 30th August 2011:

The Bells O Peover, 3rd/9, 5/1 --- 3/1
Penchesco, 6th/7, 5/1 --- 6/1

So not a lot to be said really, at least without sounding like a stuck record! One more day to go in August and then our two month break begins, which I think might do us all a bit of good in terms of recharging the batteries!

Sunday, 28 August 2011

Sunday night update

A fairly quiet last three days of action, but a profit to report, with Waahej doing the business at Windsor yesterday afternoon in good style.

We had the one selection on Friday, at a big price:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
5.25 Ffos Las Cold Mountain 2pt 20/1 gen+ inc. 25/1 Lads/Coral/SportingBet

The 25/1 held up for quite a while, and obviously it would have been a cracking return. Seamus Mullins' 9yo was a bit outpaced and he looked unlikely to win from a fair way out, but it was good to see Jimmy Derham keeping him going all the way to the line, almost snatching third. He started at 16/1.

On Saturday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.35 Beverley Mr Rainbow 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Hills/SportingBet
5.05 Windsor Waahej 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2Skybet/StanJames/SportingBet 6/1 Lads

Mr Rainbow almost gave us a terrific start to the day, staying on in the rain all the way to the line, with the post coming just a few yards too soon, after he started at 8/1.

Waahej was a good winner for us, although we were hit by an annoying 10p R4. Still, a winners a winner and he could be called that some way from home, good value for his 3/4 length victory.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.55 Goodwood Xclaim 1pt 5/1 Lads/Bet365/SportingBet/VC/Bluesq

Xclaim was nicely backed this morning but a bit weak later on, drifiting to 13/2 on his handicap debut. He was outpaced early on and did his best to get involved but it all happened a bit quickly. In the end he wasn't beaten far though, and could be one to keep an eye on.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised and SP):

Friday 26th August 2011:

Cold Mountain, 4th/8, 25/1 --- 16/1

Saturday 27th August 2011:

Mr Rainbow, 2nd/13, 8/1 --- 8/1
Waahej, 1st/6, 5.4/1(after r4) --- 11/4

Sunday 28th August 2011:

Xclaim, 6th/8, 5/1 --- 13/2

So we're left to reflect a little on what may have been had Mr Rainbow got up, but at least a profit locked in this weekend. Roll on what could be a busy day tomorrow!

Thursday, 25 August 2011

It's a funny thing

Calendar months don't really mean a jot in the grand scheme of things. Over the course of 1000 bets plus, what does it matter how the winners are spread out, whether we get a flood of winners here, and a baron run there.

But when you're in a calendar month where things just aren't falling for you, it somehow does seem to matter. I suppose it's just good psychologically when things tick over nicely, a steady upward curve and all very relaxed.

We're 163.32pts up for 2011, running at just above +27%ROI, which we're really pleased about. But this month things are tough, it's just falling that way, it'll happen, but I certainly know it's not easy to stay positive and think long term the whole time when things are going against us.

I've built up a huge resistance to losing runs, but that's been built by backing our selections for years. I know things will sometimes spectacularly go our way (and we must enjoy those days, for all it's important to keep our feet on the ground), and I know sometimes things will go against us.

But what I'm very grateful for during these last few difficult weeks is how our members, however frustrated they may be, particularly those who've joined us recently, have kept their frustations to themselves (at least to us). It would be so easy to fire off angry emails, infuriated and concerned by current results, and I wouldn't blame them. But it hasn't been that way, and for that we say thank you.

Not that we'd mind getting grief of course, we would soak it up and keep on with our task, trying to reassure the concerned as best we can. But not having those angry notes to deal with has been, for us, one of the few positives of these last few weeks. We can conclude that our members are as stoic as us. Always thinking of the big picture and the long term goal, and treating poor runs for what they are, an inevitable jot on an otherwise relentless pursuit of profit, and that is extremely pleasing.

Anyway today we had another reminder of when the racing gods are out to get you, they're out to get you.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10 Carlisle Captain Scooby 1pt 6/1 Coral/Totesport/PP/Boyle/Betfred/SportingBet
4.20 Ffos Las Am I Blue 1pt 6/1 generally 13/2 PP/VC 7/1 Lads/Coral
4.40 Carlisle Scottish Lake 1pt 9/2 generally 5/1 VC/Boyle

Captain Scooby was supported down to an SP of 9/2 and ran a luckless race. Blocked twice in running he finally broke clear to be a fast finishing fourth. But that wasn't the thing that got to us, nope, it was the fact that one of selections yesterday, Invincible Force, won the race at a ridiculous 18/1, virtually unbacked all day. It never rains bu.. It's not the first time we've seen this happen just lately, one of our selections winning at big prices soon after advised by us. We're going to investigate, look back at an enormous number of races and examine whether we can find a profitable line somewhere. Watch this space.

Am I Blue led and went well for a while but was outpaced when things got serious, after starting at 11/2.

And then Scottish Lake put in a good performance, staying on well to finish second, but a fair way behind the well handicapped winner who had flown, after starting at 9/2.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Captain Scooby, 4th/10, 6/1 --- 9/2
Am I Blue, 4th/7, 7/1 --- 11/2
Scottish Lake, 2nd/11, 9/2 --- 9/2

So, on to tomorrow!

Wednesday, 24 August 2011


We've updated the results on the website again tonight, as we like to do at least every few days. This month has not been pretty so far that's for sure.

So today we had three selections, one a non runner, and the other not placing, although that only tells part of the story.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.20 Catterick Gowanharry 1pt 5/1 generally 6/1 Lads/Totesport/Betfred/Sportingbet
4.20 Catterick Invincible Force 1pt 15/2+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Totesport/VC/Coral and others
4.40 Worcester Mix N Match 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Hills/Bet365 8/1 Betfred

Gowanharry was very well backed this morning, and the 6/1 wasn't around for long. Certainly there is no question that plenty was expected, the money well and truly down for this daughter of Choisir, she went off at 4/1. If only she'd started well.. Totally missing the break she was well behind and Phillip Makin gave up there and then, as she coasted past rivals to finish a never nearer fifth. One to look out for, although the secret's out now of course.

Then came Invincible Force who was a bit disappointing, after starting at 7/1, not really having the run of the race.

Mix N Match continued to be nicely backed before being made a non-runner at about 1 o'clock.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):
Gowanharry, 5th/12, 5/1 --- 4/1
Invincible Force, 6th/11, 8/1 --- 7/1
Mix N Match NR

It'd be wrong to say that we've had bad luck to blame for our poor results this month, but certainly Gowanharry was one that may well have got away.

It happens of course, so roll on tomorrow!

Tuesday, 23 August 2011

Waiting for the turn

A fairly quiet last couple of days, with three selections.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
7.50 Windsor The Cayterers 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Bet365 7/1 Coral 15/2 Lads

The Cayterers ran well, held up at the back, a long way behind the leaders, when he was asked to quicken to win the race he didn't quite find much, but then he stayed on nicely to snatch third in the end, after starting at 8/1.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.45 Sedgefield Dream Risk 1pt 8/1 gen 9/1Boyle/StanJames
7.50 Yarmouth Toballa 1pt 15/2 Hills 8/1 Bet365/Totesport/VC/Betfred

Dream Risk (SP 15/2) drifted but was then well backed again close to the off, but never looked like getting in it, a disappointing display.

Toballa also didn't really look like winning, she was in touch but when asked to quicken didn't find much and had to be content with 5th, after starting at 13/2.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Monday 22nd August 2011

The Cayterers, 3rd/12, 15/2 --- 8/1

Tuesday 23rd August 2011

Dream Risk, 10th/11, 8/1 --- 15/2
Toballa, 5th/10, 8/1 --- 13/2

So we're still waiting for that bounce back to big profits. Not long now until we take our two month break, it'd be nice if it happened before the end of August. If not, no problem, we'll wait our turn and look forward to November.

Sunday, 21 August 2011

Sunday catch up

Unfortunately we haven't been able to build on a nice winner last Thursday, tough going this month that's for sure, but there's still more than enough time to end August well.

Let's start on Friday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.15 York Strictly Silver 2pt 16/1 generally and 20/1 Lads/Totesport/Betfred 22/1SportingBet
4.40 Bangor Cullahill 1pt 6/1 generally 13/2 Skybet/StanJames
5.00 Sandown Blue Destination 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Totesport/Betfred

Strictly Silver was nicely backed down to around 12/1 in most places but drifted on course and started at 20/1. Slightly slowly away, he stumbled around the bend, and looked a bit green too, he tried to pick up but was never getting anywhere near the principles, with his stable mate finishing second. There was a lot of early support for this colt around and he might just be one to keep an eye on.

At Bangor, Cullahill ran well for a long time, after starting at 6/1, trading at odds on at one stage, but his challenge flattened out a bit and he could only finish third, decent effort though.

Then we went mighty close to a return with Blue Destination, who battled on really gamely in the final furlong after looking outpaced for a few strides, he would likely have got there in another 25yds, but it wasn't to be and we lost out by a head.

So onto this weekend, and pretty quiet for us with just a couple of selections.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.45 Chester Viva Ronaldo 1pt 6/1 generally 13/2 Coral

Viva Ronaldo met a little trouble in running which didn't help, but was never really looking like continuing his good Chester record, after going off at 6/1.

And then today we had

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.00 Newton Abbot Mamlook 1pt 5/1 bet365/Totesport/Boyle/Betfred/Bluesq 11/2 Stan James

Mamlook was well supported for Newton Abbot's feature race, and like Cullahill ran well for a long time, trading at around 6/4 at one point, after going off at 3/1. But he didn't seem to stay the trip and disappointingly faded before the end to finish out of the places.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Friday 19th August 2011:

Strictly Silver, 11th/17, 20/1 --- 20/1
Cullahill, 3rd/9, 6/1 --- 6/1
Blue Destination 2nd/11, 11/2 --- 7/2

Saturday 20th August 2011:

Viva Ronaldo, 10th/15, 6/1 --- 6/1

Sunday 21st August 2011:

Mamlook, 6th/14, 5/1 --- 3/1

So here's to the new week, looking forward to seeing what it brings. We ended August 2010 very strongly, and it would be lovely if it could happen again this year!

Thursday, 18 August 2011

That's more like it!

So our losing run comes to an end! A lovely 10/1 winner at Epsom tonight has hopefully begun the turn around for August in earnest and we can push on from here.

Our only other runner today put in a decent showing too, but it wasn't to be with that one.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.20 Stratford Farleigh House 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Totesport/Betfred
6.45 Epsom Weapon Of Choice 1pt 10/1 generally 11/1 Hills 12/1 Totesport/Betfred

Farleigh House ran pretty well, trading at shorter than 6/4 as he closed on the long time leader, after starting at 9/2, but his efforts to close the gap left him short of stamina near the end and he had to settle for third.

Weapon Of Choice was available at 12/1 with Stan James for around an hour after our email was sent out and hopefully plenty of members were able to take advantage. They're on our list of bookies odds we don't count though so we're marking up David Simcock's 3yo as a 10/1 shot for us. We still got the price as he went off at 8/1, and put in a terrific display, always going nicely and then doing well from the front to hold off a strong challenge from the second.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Farleigh House, 3rd/7, 11/2 --- 9/2
Weapon Of Choice, 1st/6, 10/1 --- 8/1

So, it's nice to have that winning feeling again, it's been a while. We're on a run of 12 winners from our last 100 selections which is around three wins away from what we'd expect. Hopefully we're due a little correction back upwards to get ourselves back into profit for August. We'll see!

On to tomorrow.

Wednesday, 17 August 2011

Not pretty

Over the course of a year, we'll have some brilliant days, many average days, and some pretty horrible days. Today was sadly one of the later. Seven points dropped, and a collection of poor performances.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.20 Nott Lees Anthem 1pt 9-2 general, 5-1 Coral, B365
3.15 Carl Captain Scooby 1pt 11-2 +, incl 6-1 Lads, Betfred, Coral, Tote
3.50 Carl Breezolini 1pt 7-1 general, 17-2 VC
4.05 Nott Rockweiller 1pt 5-1 + general, 7-1 B365, W Hill, Lads
5.05 Heref Hectors House 2Pts 12-1 general, 14-1W Hill, VC, Sky, Boyle
5.30 Carl Spahi 1pt 8-1 general, 9s W Hill, B365, S James

It all started with Lees Anthem, who went off a 9/2 shot and was scrubbed along early to try to get close to the pace. He then faded tamely out of contention to make it a poor start to the day.

Captain Scooby didn't perform much better, going off at 8/1 and ending well beaten.

Breezolini's price drifted before being she was supported again, although she still went off a 10/1 shot. Held up well off the pace she started to make up ground all too late and ended up coasting home in midfield.

Rockweiller was next and another who finished well down, although at least we got the price this time, with Steve Gollings' 4yo going off a 9/2 shot. He was there or thereabouts two furlongs from home but ended up being eased home.

We then looked to our 2pt selection to give the day a much needed lift. We got the price here, with Hector's House going off at 9/1. He was a little outpaced to begin with and had to be content with sitting at the back. By the time he'd moved up through the field the front two had scooted clear and we had to be content with fourth.

And so we were left with Spahi, who went off a nicely backed 11/2. His rider gave the leaders a huge lead, but it looked for a moment like he was going to come with a winning run as he improved into the picture. Not to be though, with the selection's effort petering out.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Lees Anthem, 8th/8, 5/1 --- 9/2
Captain Scooby, 6th/9, 6/1 --- 8/1
Breezolini, 6th/9, 7/1 --- 10/1
Rockweiller, 12th/15, 7/1 --- 9/2
Hector's House, 4th/8, 14/1 --- 9/1
Spahi, 5th/10, 9/1 --- 5/1

It's annoying to have to say it, but its runs like this which remind us of the importance of solid staking plans. Working on a strike rate of around 15% will statistically occasionally throw up losing runs of 40 plus, we're still some way off that, but it does unfortunately go with the territory. All we can say to those of our newer members who are feeling a bit beaten up by it all, please try to think of the big picture, we'll get it back and more, of that we're absolutely sure.

Tuesday, 16 August 2011

Not a lot to report

Not a great deal to report with just a couple of runners over the last two days.

It feels like it, generally speaking, has been a slow run recently with few selections. Funny how it just happens sometimes like this, things could just as easily burst into life tomorrow and we suddenly have a flood of runners.

Yesterday we were left a tad frustrated with a non-runner, and then a very below par performance by our only other selection:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.45 Thirsk Uncle Bryn 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 VC/Betfred/Totesports 14/1 Lads
7.10 Windsor Cloud Illusions 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Bet365/Boyles 8/1 Lads

Ladbrokes held Uncle Bryn's price at 14/1 for a good amount of time but cut to 10/1 just before we take our settled prices ten minutes after selections are put out, so we would have marked him down as 10/1. He was around a 9/2 shot when he was declared a non runner.

So it was all on Cloud Illusions. He was a bit awkward for Fallon leaving the stalls and in the early stages of the race, being snatched up as he was held up out the back. He then dropped well away, tailed off, not good. He went off at 7/1.

Today just the one for us:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
5.15 Musselburgh Here Now and Why 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Hills/Boyles/SportingBet

Hills held up at 5/1, and then layers got stuck on on the exchanges, pushing Here Now And Why's price out to open on course at 6/1. Again he was backed though, into 9/2 at SP. He came with a strong looking run on this step up to 7furlongs, but whether it was the soft ground, or the extra furlong, the run petered out and he was well beaten.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 15th August 2011

Uncle Bryn NR
Cloud Iluisions, 9th/9, 7/1---7/1

Tuesday 16th August 2011

Here Now And Why, 7th/10, 5/1 --- 9/2

Just over half the month gone, a frustrating August so far for sure, but plenty of time left to spin things around.

Sunday, 14 August 2011


Well if we continue to back 4/1 shots at 6/1, and 3/1 shots at 10/1 and 5/1 respectively we'll do very well going forward. There'll be ups and downs but that getting that value will see us through.

Sadly though this weekend we didn't see any of our three hit the target, although we had a decent second this afternoon.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.40 Newmarket Rawaafed 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Paddy Power 6/1 VC/Skybet
5.45 Ripon Saqil 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 7/1 lads/Coral/Boylesports 15/2Totesp/Betfred
7.50 Market Rasen Seven Stars 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Lads/Tote/Betfred

Rawaafed was supported down to 4/1 at the offer for his maiden at Newmarket, and he ran a promising race, always there or thereabouts he showed a good deal of speed but didn't have the finishing kick we needed, and he came a fairly close up fourth.

Saqil was a non-runner.

Seven Stars was the subject of a great deal of support on his return to hurdles after more than a year out. There would have been a small r4 on any returns, but we had some cracking value with the selection going off at 3/1. Sadly though things didn't go to plan. A but outpaced early on, he didn't jump fluently and soon found himself well off the pace.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.00 Pontefract Simple Jim 1pt 5/1 generally

Simple Jim ran well, after going off at 3/1. Held a little way of the pace he came with a rattling late run but the winner, well ridden by Jimmy Fortune, had flown and we never really going to get there.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 13th August 2011

Rawaafed, 4th/7, 6/1 --- 4/1
Saqil NR
Seven Stars, 11th/11, 10/1 --- 3/1

Sunday 14th August 2011

Simple Jim, 2nd/16, 5/1 --- 3/1

So, at least the consolation of value (yes that word again) was had this weekend, but the fact remains that August hasn't been kind to us so far in terms of results. Let's hope we get our rewards sooner rather than later.

Friday, 12 August 2011


Well I can think of times when I've had more fun writing these updates on results that's for sure!

But that's the way it goes sometimes, we just keep going and look forward to things turning.

Nothing doing from our last three selections over the last couple of days, and August continues to stutter along.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.40 Salisbury Amistress 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Bet365/Betfred/Tote/PaddyPower/Bluesq

Amistress was nicely supported into 7/2 at the off, although for much of the race it seemed she wasn't really travelling. Eventually though she began to pick up and from the rear was staying on quite nicely when she was checked once, and then quite severely hampered as she tried to get there. While she would have gone closer, it's probably unlikely she would have got near the winner.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.20 Newcastle Desert Creek 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Hills/Bluesq
4.30 Newcastle Big Slick 1pt 5/1 generally

Desert Creek was very well backed this morning but drifted on course to 11/2 after opening at 7/2. He had a troubled time of it in the stalls, throwing his head around with a blindfold on, and then Adrian Nicholls was slow to remove it once the gates opened. So he dwelt, lost a fair bit of ground at the start and was never really in the race thereafter.

No such obvious excuse for Big Slick, who went off a solid 4/1 shot, but just never travelled at all, weakening a fair way from home and then eased to a virtual canter for the last furlong. Surely a lot better was expected.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Thursday 11th August 2011:

Amistress, 6th/11, 9/2 --- 7/2

Friday 12th August 2011:

Desert Creek, 6th/8, 5/1 --- 11/2
Big Slick, 9th/9, 5/1 --- 4/1

On to tomorrow!

Wednesday, 10 August 2011

Not happening

Things just aren't happening for us at the moment.

Today we had a couple go for us:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.15 Beverley Crimson Sea 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Lads/Boyles/VC
3.25 Yarmouth Strike A Deal 1pt 13/2generally and. 7/1 Lads

It was quite interesting market activity surrounding Crimson Sea after we posted up the selection. Ladbrokes held on to the 11/1 for a good while but eventually he was backed into 8 or 9/1, before drifting on the exchanges to open on course at 12/1. Again the money came for him and he went off at 9/1 SP. All completely academic in the end as Ben Haslam's 2yo shared the lead at the half way point to completely drop out of contention.

A matter of minutes later we were hoping Strike A Deal would get things going. Again Lads held their price well and we got some reasonable value with the selection going off at 5/1. She ran solo up against the stands rail, and for a moment or two it looked like she had the whole field up against it, trading around evens in running. But the complexion of the race soon changed and she was readily passed, before staying on again near the finish to grab third.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Crimson Sea, 11th/11, 11/1 --- 9/1
Strike A Deal, 3rd/10, 7/1 --- 5/1

So while we got the price today with both of our picks, August continues to frustrate. It must be particularly annoying for those of our newer members without past profits to fall back on, but all we can say is "it'll come" - it always (in our experience) does.

A really busy day tomorrow with six turf meetings, so we'll look forward to doing all we can to get back into the money then!

Tuesday, 9 August 2011


Events in London and elsewhere readily put the racing world into perspective of course.

But the show goes on, with a couple of selections for us over the last two days, and both fairly eventful.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
7.30 Thirsk My Single Malt 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Hills/Coral/Totesport/VC/Betfred/Boyle

My Single Malt ran well at Thirsk, but had to switch around a wall of horses to mount a challenge which certainly didn't help. He stayed on nicely but was never really going to get there, after starting at 5/1.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.45 Newton Abbot Risk Challenge 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Lads/Hills/Skybet some 11/1 Stan James

Long standing members and website followers will hopefully know we do try not to knock jockey's rides, we realise they have a difficult job! But I think Jason Maguire's efffort on Risk Challenge (SP 11/1) is worthy of a small vent. The horse has to be held up, fair enough, but it was mildly maddening to watch our selection never (in our opinion) being given much of a chance. Always travelling nicely, he was held up and held up, and then held up some more, and when he was asked to push on he eased past much of the field to finish sixth, beaten just over eleven lengths. I'm sure there was a very good reason for him being ridden that way, maybe he thought he had a stronger finishing kick than was apparent, but all the same it was one of our more frustrating runs of the last few weeks.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 8th August 2011:

My Single Malt, 3rd/13, 6/1 --- 5/1

Tuesday 9th August 2011:

Risk Challenge, 6th/18, 9/1 --- 11/1

So let's hope for better tomorrow. And in the meantime let's also hope for a peaceful night ahead in London and beyond.

Sunday, 7 August 2011

Unsettled Sunday

Not a lot to report today with a couple of well beaten selections.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
5.00 Windsor Riflessione 1pt 7/1+ including 8/1 Hills 17/2 VC 9/1 Totesport/Betfred/Bluesq/SportingBet
5.30 Windsor Invent 1pt 10/1 Bet365/Lads/Bluesq 11/1 Tote/Betfred 12/1 Skybet/Sportingbet

Both these were, in our opinion, somewhat hampered by the heavy rain seen at Windsor this afternoon. We're really not one for excuses and of course these things will probably even up over time but an annoying feature of this summer has been long spells of unsetttled weather and isolated bursts of extremely heavy rain, usually it seems half an hour before our selections are due to run!!

It happened again today, although whether either of these would have gone closer is debatable, both were so well beaten.

Riflessione started at 15/2 and raced prominently for a while before dropping away tamely.

Invent opened on course at 14/1 after drifting in the afternoon but was backed in again to 11/1, but was never remotely in it.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Riflessione, 10th/12, 9/1 --- 15/2
Invent, 6th/10, 10/1 --- 11/1

A bit of a flat start to August, let's hope things begin to motor tomorrow!

Saturday, 6 August 2011

Waiting game

Things stuttering on rather as we wait our turn for a nice bank boost.

But we've had good value in three of our last four picks, and we'll get our rewards soon.

Let's start with a look at yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.20 Worcester Mayor of Kilcock 2pt 9/1+generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Sporting Bet
7.10 Haydock Tortoni 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Hills/Bet365 13/2 Skybet/StanJames

A decent move on Mayor of Kilcock, who we're marking up at 10/1 although the 12/1 with Ladbrokes held for a good few minutes after the email delivered. He was very well supported down to 9/2 in places though settled at 6/1 at SP. I just wonder if the horse didn't give his true running, as he was going along nicely, just moving up on the outside taking a share of second, when he just almost instantly began to slip through the field, and was well beaten when he fell. Certainly it appears more was expected.

Tortoni was backed into 7/2 and travelled nicely for a good part of the race, trading at around 6/4 at one point. He was short of room at one stage and carried his head awkwardly as if something was up, and ended up well back. According to his jockey he got upset before the race.

So tonight we had a couple at Ayr.

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
7.10 Ayr Bubber 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Bet365/Hills/PP/Totesport/Betfred
8.40 Ayr Hardrock Diamond 1pt 6/1 Lads/Bet365/Stan James 13/2 Skybet/Betfred

Well Bubber didn't go to plan. Drifting to 14/1 he was never in the race and was well beaten.

Much better from Hardrock Diamond, who was backed all the way down to an SP of 5/2. He was held up out the back and stayed on strongly towards the finish, to finish third, beaten a nose and a neck.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 5th August 2011:

Mayor of Kilcock, F/13, 10/1 --- 6/1
Tortoni, 6th/7 11/2 --- 7/2

Saturday 6th August 2011:

Bubber, 10th/12, 10/1 --- 14/1
Hardrock Diamond, 3rd/7, 6/1 --- 5/2

So, good value had with three of these last four selections, and while it isn't much consolation when dealing with defeats, it is certainly should be some. It is, after all, the reason we should be profitable over the next 12 months and beyond. In the short term, a nice winner or two would be nice tomorrow!

Friday, 5 August 2011

July Analysis

Well it had to happen sooner or later, July saw our first monthly loss since January, and in the end a nice run of winners salvaged our position somewhat to only leave us a little bit down.

Bets: 70
Wins: 10 (14.29%)
2nds: 7 (10%)
3rds: 7 (10%)
Placed total: 24 (34.29%)
Average odds taken: 7.26/1
Average SP: 6.47/1
Average win odds: 6.02/1
Profit/Loss: -6.8pts
Return On Investment: -6.4%

We've been running at just short of 15% strike rate for much of this year, and again we were around that mark again. It's amazing really with all the selections we see go, the unlucky ones, those that got lucky, the fallers, the winners etc, that over time these stats just settle down and are so consistent. If nothing else it's a great way of helping to soak up losing runs knowing that things will turn (if things are going badly), and also not getting too carried away if we have a great flood of winners and thinking that will continue.

The thing that got us in terms of points this time was that our average win odds was a bit lower than we would have liked, and of course we can point to seven 2pt selections which all went down. Among these we had The Snail beaten a neck at 16/1, and a decent performance from Crosby Jemma who finished third (backed at 12/1 went off 7s - and promptly won next time at 14/1sp!).

We've a current losing sequence of 13 on 2pt selections, and this year have also had a losing run of 17, but we are still turning an ROI of 101.89% and showing 108pts profit this year from them, so we're not concerned by the current run at all. It's all about the long term as we keep banging on about!

The most important stat of all, that of whether we're beating SP, is again a bright spot, with our average taken price of 7.26/1 beating the average SP of 6.47/1. These taken prices are those odds which are readily available too for at least ten minutes, and many of our members would have got bigger average taken prices. For example we marked down Encompassing at 16/1 when Ladbrokes held their 25/1 for a good few minutes allowing many to get on at that price.

So while July was tough, with some poor runs, not helped probably by crazy weather patterns and heavy rain changing the going every few minutes (or so it seemed), we got through with our bank near enough in tact, and we look forward to getting our rewards for having that relentless average price edge on the bookies again before too long.

Could have been explosive but..

We wrote yesterday morning how yesterday could have been an explosive day, with six selections, in the end all a bit flat, with one winner, a non runner all ending in a very small loss for the day.

The day before we were 0/1.

Let's start there, we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10 Pontefract Byron Bear 1pt 8/1 generally some 17/2 Hills
4.00 Brighton Heavenly Pursuit 1pt 5/1 generally some 11/2 Totesport/Betfred

Byron Bear was going into the race a CD winner but was readily outgunned in this small field, after starting at 8/1, with the steady pace probably not suiting.

Heavenly Pursuit was being nicely backed but made a non-runner.

And then yesterday we had six selections, the most for a while:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.10 Haydock Sygnature 1pt 13/2+generally
3.10 Haydock Pivot Bridge 1pt 6/1+generally
3.50 Yarmouth Oh So Spicy 1pt 4/1+generally
6.35 Folkestone Billyrayvalentine 1pt 4/1+generally
6.55 Chepstow Armiger 1pt 5/1 generally
7.20 Sandown Star Surprise 1pt 9/2 generally and 5/1 Coral

Sygnature raced a bit keenly and was well beaten, after starting at 8/1.

Pivot Bridge ran well, staying on into second in the soggy conditions but still just over a length behind the winner.

Oh So Spicy was a very easy winner, always going nicely at Yarmouth, she quickened clear and nicely and was pushed out to the line to win by more than four lengths. An annoying 15p rule four reduced our returns, but we still got the price, with Chris Wall's 4yo going off at 11/4.

Billyrayvalentine was a non runner, so we had two in the evening to look to see if we could build on things.

Sadly not, with Armiger proving very disappointing at Chepstow, after starting at 4/1, dropping tamely away. Then came Star Surprise at Sandown, who was one of the first to switch to the stands side to get the better ground, with the lone runner left on the far side ending up winning. A disappointing effort, after being nicely supported, going off 7/2f.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday 3rd May 2011:

Byron Bear, 3rd/4, 8/1 --- 8/1
Heavenly Pursuit, NR

Thursday 4th May 2011:

Sygnature, 6th/8, 7/1 --- 8/1
Pivot Bridge, 2nd/9, 13/2---6/1
Oh So Spicy, 1st/6, 3.825/1(r4) --- 11/4
Billyrayvalentine NR
Armiger, 8th/8, 9/2 --- 4/1
Star Surprise, 8th/8, 5/1 --- 7/2

So since Tuesday we are 1.175pts down from where we were, a bit of a steady start to August but things could fire up any time. It does feel like we're due a big bank boost, these things generally come along every now and then and I think it's approaching our time again.

Tuesday, 2 August 2011

Four timer foiled!

It's been a bit of a slow start for August, three selections going down yesterday (one second), and then today we had the unusual prospect of no selections at all.

So a quick look at yesterday then and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.15 Ripon Oneofapear 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/PaddyPower/Boylesports/StanJames
4.15 Ripon Crimson Knot 1pt 5/1 generally and 11/2 Coral/Totesport/Betfred
5.30 Newton Abbot Amuse Me 1pt 9/1+generally inc some 10/1 Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet

We got the price with all of these, although only marginally in the case of Oneofapear who went off at 9/2. It was a disappointing effort in our attempt to get four winners in a row and the selection was well beaten.

A much better effort by Crimson Knot, who met a little bit of trouble in running as he ran on near the finish, going down a diminishing length in the end, after starting at 7/2.

And then we had Amuse Me, who was well backed to show an improvement over the fences for Jonjo and AP. Not so though, he jumped the first pretty poorly and was always struggling, after going off at 5/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 1st August 2011:

Oneofapear, 5th/6, 5/1 --- 9/2
Crimson Knot, 2nd/6, 5/1 --- 7/2
Amuse Me, PU/9, 9/1 --- 5/1

And then today we had no selections, which is always a bit annoying but we'll never reach for picks for the sake of it. So on to tomorrow!