Tuesday, 31 May 2011

Sensational end to May!

Well we've had a brilliant last few days, and things continued today in no uncertain terms, with our 2pt win bet on Gud Day (SP 20/1) getting up on the line to chin the odds on shot in the 3.45 at Leicester. We're settling the winner at 14/1 in our records which means May ends 74pts up. Great stuff!

We need to catch up with yesterday's action first and we had three running for us, and had two seconds.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.15 Towec Taroum 1pt 6-1 general BOG, 7s Tote
4.40 Carlisle Gertmegalush 1pt 15-2 Sp.Bet 7-1 Lads (BOG),S James
5.20 Red Finellas Fortune 1pt 8-1 general BOG, some 9s at VCBet BOG, 10-1 S James

Taroum ran well but finished second, always just held by the winner, after starting at 11/2.

Gertmegalush was never in it (SP 11/2).

Then in the 5.20, Finellas Fortune started at 10/1 and kept on really well but just couldn't reel in the leader.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.45 Leices Gud Day 2pts 14-1 Boyle (BOG) Coral, B Square
4.00 Redc Ishetoo 1pt 5-1 Lads, B365, Hill (BOG) 11-2 Sky, Tote
7.25 Yarm Negotiation 1pt 13-2 W Hill, VC (BOG) 7s S James

Gud Day ran an absolute blinder for us to stay on and win in the shadow of the post, after being a great ride by Greg Fairley. Hats off to all connections, and well done Deborah Sanderson who got her first winner of the year. Betfair SP punters had a field day with this one, going off at 27.71, and the in-running price hit 100. Judging by the emails we've received from some of our subscribers, the majority of our members got 20/1 about the winner thanks to the BOG but because the 14s didn't last long with Boylesports we'll settle our results at 14/1 as Coral kept that price for a good while (and now don't do BOG on their usual markets of course).

So could we follow up? Unfortunately no, Ishetoo tried to stay on but was never getting there (SP5/1) and Negotiation went off a well supported 4/1 shot but seemed to not be helped by the sedate gallop and was well beaten.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 30th May 2011

Taroum, 2nd/7, 6/1 --- 11/2
Gertmegalush, 7th/11, 11/2 --- 11/2
Finellas Fortune, 2nd/8, 8/1 --- 10/1

Tuesday 31st May 2011

Gud Day, 1st/11, 14/1 --- 20/1
Ishetoo, 6th/9, 5/1 --- 5/1
Negotiation, 5th/7, 13/2 --- 4/1

So after spending much of May hitting the post with a series of good priced seconds and thirds, in the end we get our rewards with a surge of winners. It's ended our best month of the year so far, which is saying something given how good February and March were!

A full May analysis may follow later, but more likely in the next day or two.

Monday, 30 May 2011

More profits

Another great day on Sunday with Consulate doing the business in very tidy style at Uttoxeter.

We had another second beaten in a photo, and the other was unplaced.

Here they were:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.50 Nottingham Chater Garden 1pt 7/1 Bet365/Stan James/Bluesq/Betfred 13/2 Hills
3.20 Nottingham Dubara Reef 1pt 5/1 Lads/Totesport/Boylesports/Stan James/SportingBet
4.10 Uttoxeter Consulate 1pt 10/1 Bet365/Hills/Stan James

Chater Garden went off at 15/2, raced wide, and finished a well beaten last.

Dubara Reef was a narrowly beaten second. He looked to have won the battle in the closing stages, getting up to beat the eventual third close home, but a 33/1 shot came with a storming late run to nick us on the line. A great finish but we came out just the wrong side on this occasion.

Then came Consulate, who was backed as if defeat was out of the question, going off at 7/2 in the end and then hacking up in convincing style making full use of a tumbling handicap mark, a great result and keep things ticking along very nicely for us. There was a 10p r4 deduction sadly on our morning stakes, but still a good 9pt profit on the race (7pts overall for the day).

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Chater Garden, 8th/8, 7/1 --- 15/2
Dubara Reef, 2nd/15, 5/1 --- 11/2
Consulate, 1st/8, 10/1 --- 7/2

We've had a great few days and with a busy Bank Holiday Monday to come we should have a few opportunities to keep things going!

Saturday, 28 May 2011

Not our day

Will keep tonight's update fairly brief given what's going on at Wembley!

But not really our day today, with a narrowly beaten second and unseated rider from our three selections..

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.35 Newmarket Swiss Spirit 1pt 9/2 Coral/Betfred/Skybet/Bluesq 4/1 generally
5.20 Haydock Boundaries 2pt 10/1 generally BOG 12/1 Lads
6.50 Stratford Cruchain 1pt 7/1 Coral/Totesport/Stan James 13/2 Hills

Swiss Spirit was very nicely supported this morning but we still just about grabbed the price with David Elsworth's 2yo going off at 4/1. I think it's fair to say he was a bit unlucky, he stumbled a furlong or so from home and was caught in all sorts of traffic problems, switching his run a couple of times, before flying home at the death to go down a neck. One that got away.

Boundaries went off at 7/1 and after an untidy start faded out of things after midway. Not a great effort but if we get 12/1 about 7/1 shots the rest of the year we'll be fine.

Cruchain unseated his rider before things got competitive at Stratford but again we were happy with the prices, with Dai Burchell's gelding going off at 4s.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Swiss Spirit, 2nd/14, 9/2 --- 4/1
Boundaries, 7th/11, 12/1 --- 7/1
Cruchain, UR/8, 7/1 --- 4/1

Now, off to watch the game!

Friday, 27 May 2011

Fab Friday!!

This has been a fantastic week, which is ironic given that on Tuesday we were talking about having just had the worst day of the year so far!

In hindsight, those 7pts dropped were pretty insignificant really compared to the 33pts made on Wednesday, and then another 25pts added today. We have a real spring in our step going into the weekend!

We had five selections today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.40 Brighton Major Eradicator 1pt 5/1 generally BOG 11/2 Ladbrokes
6.25 Pontefract Raleigh Quay 1pt 6/1 Bet365/Hills/Paddy Power
6.55 Pontefract Speed Dating 1pt 9/1 Lads/Hills 8/1 others inc. Bet365
7.55 Stratford Dais Return 2pt 12/1 Boylesports/SkyBet 10/1 others
8.45 Haydock Simonside 1pt 13/2 Hills/Boylesports 6/1 generally BOG

When we emailed out the selections, 5/1 was very readily available about Major Eradicator, and 11/2 was also there with Ladbrokes. Within a few minutes though the price had crashed, to the point where we can only think he was the subject of a tip from somewhere else just after us, as we certainly don't have that sort of effect on the market. It's frustrating for our records, but we'll chalk him up as a 4/1 success. As for his race, a hands and heels contest, the pace was slow early on and the selection was always going very nicely, and he ran out a very ready winner, at an SP of 7/2.

Then came Raleigh Quay, who started at 6/1 and was never really in it.

Speed Dating was next up at Pontefract (9/1 SP), who started slowly as he does, but was moving nicely, before suddenly having to be pulled up. We hope he's ok.

Next up was the highlight of the day with Dai's Return always travelling brilliantly well and quickening clear to win by ten lengths after starting at 10/1 for Peter Bowen. The result never really in much doubt. He had a Betfair SP of 14.

So we looked to Simonside to cap the day off nicely but it didn't happen. Starting at 6/1 he put in what looked a promising performance for quite a way, but faded out of contention as they neared the finish, to come 6th.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Major Eradicator, 1st/6, 4/1 --- 7/2
Raleigh Quay, 6th/9, 6/1 --- 6/1
Speed Dating, PU/7, 9/1 --- 9/1
Dai's Return, 1st/11, 12/1 --- 10/1
Simonside, 6th/10, 13/2 --- 6/1

The day leaves May 47pts up so far, and with a few days left of the month we can hopefully add to it before June arrives.

Thursday, 26 May 2011

Veteran's day

Well it was always going to be difficult to have as good a day as yesterday straight away, and so it proved. But we came pretty close to another decent one, with an 8/1 shot finishing second, well clear of third, but beaten by the gallant veteran Beckermet at the age of 9. The other two selections, while well beaten, at least had an excuse or two.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.40 Brighton Ari Gold 1pt 8/1 Bet365/Hills/VC/Coral
3.50 Ayr Caldermud 1pt 8/1 generally BOG 9/1 VC/Bluesq
6.00 Sandown Bowsers Brave 1pt 5/1 Lads/Bet365/Hills general BOG

Well we certainly got the price with Ari Gold, with Tom Dascombe's 3yo being punted right down to the 3/1 at the off, although as the 8s lasted less than ten minutes we'll mark him as a 7/1 shot for us. He was slowly away because Jim Crowley didn't get the blindfold off quickly, raced too keenly for a while and then was bumped from pillar to post around half a mile from home which seemed to put pay to any chance and Jim allowed him to coast home the rest of the way. Pretty disappointing but pleasing to have the value in no uncertain terms.

Then came our biggest run of the day, with Caldermud putting in a pretty decent display at Ayr, after starting at 8/1. Held up, he came with a decent run, showing a reasonable turn of foot given the ground and wind. Sadly he ran into the 9yo Beckermet, running from an OR of nearly half his peak of three years ago, and with Shane Kelly taking off another seven pounds our selection was never going to get there, beaten around a couple of lengths, but nicely clear of third. A good showing.

There was a great evening's racing at Sandown of course and we were hoping to kick things off nicely with Bowsers Brave, but the heavy rain which came in before the race didn't appear to help at all. Starting at 11/2 he seemed to be going ok until they switched to the straight and he became bogged down in what looked very slushy ground in the middle of the track, and he quickly faded out of contention to be well beaten.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Ari Gold, 5th/7, 7/1 --- 3/1
Caldermud, 2nd/14, 8/1 --- 8/1
Bowsers Brave ,11/12, 5/1 --- 11/2

Roll on tomorrow!

Wednesday, 25 May 2011

Wonderful Wednesday!

Last night we wrote, "We are definitely due a really good day, so we'll look forward to that happening soon!".

Well we didn't have to wait long! A fantastic day today powers May into good profit, with two winners at 14/1 (2pt win) and 6/1. Our other was placed too, to the pleasure of those of our members who like to play each way multiples.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.15 Ayr Ginger Ted 2pt 14-1 general BOG
4.45 N Abbot Kiama 1pt 6-1 W Hill, B365(BOG) B square, Coral
9.00 Bev Pintrada 1pt 6-1 general BOG

Ginger Ted was a very gutsy winner on his first drop back to the minimum trip for some time. Switched off the rail, he met plenty of trouble in running but squeezed through a gap bravely and stayed on right to the line to in the end win a shade cosily after going off at 10/1. A really pleasing winner and a cracking 28pts of profit.

Then came Kiama, who actually drifted to 8/1 at the off at Newton Abbot, but ran well for a long time before being unable to quicken when asked, although he did stay on into third close to home.

With a good day already in the bag, we waited for Pintrada's race to see whether things would finish off nicely, and finish off nicely they did with James Bethell's 3yo being given a lovely patient ride by Philip Robinson out the back and staying on really well to land the contest by a length. He was trading at around 8/1 in running for much of the race, which is incredible really in hindsight. He started at 9/2.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Ginger Ted, 1st/10, 14/1 --- 10/1
Kiama, 3rd/12, 6/1 --- 8/1
Pintrada, 1st/7, 6/1 --- 9/2

It meant that we ended the day 33pts to the good, very nice!

Tuesday, 24 May 2011

Worst day of the year

That was a shocker of a day, the worst of the year so far, with a selection of poor performances.

Funny how just yesterday we were talking about how we were expecting things to get busier, and then the very next day we have six runners (although one ended up a NR).

So we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.40 Ripon Antoniola 2pt 12/1 Lads 11/1 Bet365 10/1others
3.40 Ripon Ginger Jack 2pt 16/1 generally (BOG)
3.50 Chepstow Vertueux 1pt 11/2 generally (BOG) 6/1 Coral
7.15 Huntingdon Murfreesboro 1pt 7/1 Bet365/Boylesports 13/2 others
8.30 Hexham Frankie Anson 1pt 5/1 Lads Coral 9/2 others
8.45 Huntingdon Filimoss 1pt 7/1 generally (BOG) 8/1 Bet365

Not a lot to say about any of these.

Antoniola went off at 11/1 and was travelling just off the pace and weakened out of things just over a furlong from home.

Ginger Jack was just trying to get into contention when he blocked for a run which blew what little chance he had at that stag after starting at 14/1.

Vertueux put in a distinctly below par performance over a C&D he'd previously won over after going off at 6/1.

Murfreesboro was a non-runner (maybe that's the one that got away!) so we had to wait until just after 8.30 for our next, Frankie Anson, who despite a decent level of support throughout the day put in a very flat performance, after starting at 4/1.

So it was left to Filimoss to salvage things for the day but it wasn't to be, with Charlie Morlock's 6yo finishing tailed off, after drifting to 9/1 at the off.

A poor day.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Antoniola, 6th/14, 12/1 --- 11/1
Ginger Jack, 8th/11, 16/1 --- 14/1
Vertueux, 6th/12, 6/1 --- 6/1
Murfreesboro NR
Frankie Anson, 6th/10, 5/1 --- 4/1
Filimoss, 8th/10, 8/1 --- 9/1

We've had days like this before, and will have them again, it's always particularly disappointing when we don't even get close to a winner, but that's what having a sturdy betting bank is all about, soaking days like this up (-7pts) and moving on. So that's what we'll do!

We are definitely due a really good day, so we'll look forward to that happening soon!

Monday, 23 May 2011

Slow couple of days

Since the turn of this year, we've had 322 bets, over the course of 143 days. That works out an average of 2.25 selections a day. Bearing in mind for the majority of that time there wasn't flat racing, let alone evening racing, it is somewhat surprising that we've had so few selections over the last few days (2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1 - average 1.5).

Despite the recent slow patch, we would expect this average daily figure to climb in the next few months as racing continues to come thick and fast. Having said that, we will never reach for selections which we are not absolutely happy with. This game is almost as much about not losing points as it is gaining points.

Anyway we've had one selection per day these last couple of days, and neither placed, although we had cracking value with one of them.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30 Fakenham Baby Car 1pt 6/1 Betfred / Skybet / SportingBet 11/2 general Hills/Bet365

We'll mark Baby Car up as an 11/2 selection as only Sporting Bet were available at 6/1 for a good while. Either way, we had good value with Baby Car supported all the way into 5/2 at SP. Up there for most of the race, he looked to hold every chance about three hurdles from home, but couldn't go with the two leaders and finished well beaten.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
5.00 Carlisle Northern Bolt 1pt 8/1 Lads/Hills/Other BOG (9/1 Stan James)

Northern Bolt was nicely supported for much of the day, and then went on the drift on the exchanges half way through the afternoon, so he opened on course at 12/1. Backed in again to 9/1, he didn't offer a lot under conditions which appeared like they should suit. Being slightly out of room for a few strides didn't help but he never going to win, coming 6th.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Sunday 22nd May 2011

Baby Car, 3rd/7, 11/2 --- 5/2

Monday 23rd May 2011

Northern Bolt, 6th/11, 8/1 --- 9/1

So we wait to see what tomorrow brings, with four turf meetings and some reasonable sized fields we'll be hoping for a slightly busier day of selections than the last couple!

Saturday, 21 May 2011

Back in front

A good winner today with Swift Alhaarth making virtually all and recording a convincing win in the last at Chester.

It was our third and final selection of the day, which all ran in the space of around 20 minutes.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
5.25 York Kames Park 1pt 10/1 general BOG 11/1 Boylesports/Sporting Bet
5.35 Goodwood Regal Bullet 2pt 12/1 Lads/Boylesports/Totesport/Bluesq
5.45 Chester Swift Alhaarth 1pt 9/2 VC/Coral/Boylesports/Totesport 5/1 Lads

Kames Park started at 11/1, and after being held up out the back tried to get into contention and looked to be doing just that for a while, but then ran out of steam to finish a well beaten fifth.

Regal Bullet was up there and just for a moment around a furlong from home it appeared he might just quicken into serious contention, but it was a short lived hope and he finished 7th, although not beaten that far, after starting at 9/1.

Then came Swift Alhaarth, who drifted to 15/2 at SP (although they came for him again just before the off), and he put in a great display to win comfortably at Chester. Grabbing the all important rail, he quickened clear nicely in the last couple of furlongs to win with a fair bit in hand. The 5/1 with Ladbrokes stood up all day so we'll register the win at 15/2 thanks to BOG.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Kames Park, 5th/12, 11/1 --- 11/1
Regal Bullet, 7th/11, 12/1 --- 9/1
Swift Alhaarth, 1st/5, 5/1 --- 15/2

So a profit of 4.5 points on the day, which pushes May back into profit, albeit marginally. It's been a month of very consistent and highly promising performances and we'll hopefully have a good few winners in the last ten days to push us forward further before June arrives.

Friday, 20 May 2011

Still knocking at that door

It's been a pretty quiet last couple of days, with just two selections, both running well but unable to get their noses in front.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
8.05 Sand Monopolize 1pt 8-1 B365, W HIll (BOG) B.Square, S James

Henry Cecil's 3yo ran well, stepping up nicely on his only run last year, but despite putting in a good effort he wasn't able to quicken enough in the closing stages and finished a not beaten far third, well clear of fourth, after starting at 7.1

And then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

8.20 Catt Houston Dynimo 1pt 6-1 B365, Boyle, 11-2 P Power

And this was our our third second place finish in our last four picks. Houston Dynimo started at 9/2 and was always up there, and looked to have a decent chance turning for home, but he drifted across the track and while he kept on well, he was beaten just over a length.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Thursday 19th May 2011

Monopolize, 3rd/12, 8/1 --- 7/1

Friday 20th May 2011

Houston Dynimo, 2nd/7, 6/1 --- 9/2

So roll on the weekend!

Wednesday, 18 May 2011

Close to a cracker!

May's been a mixed month so far. Loads of our selections have been running really well, we've had 24 of our 50 horses placed (48%), at an average price of 8.01/1, but we're sitting with a marginal loss (-1.5pts) thanks to our win only strategy.

There will be spells when backing win only will reap serious dividends, and there will be spells, when you're knocking on the door but not smashing through, which are a tad frustrating.

But in our experience, long term (yes that phrase again) backing win only is for the best, and we just have to suck up days like today, with two second placed finishes from our two selections.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

6.30 Sedge Darkan Road 1pt 7-1 B365, Lads (BOG) 8-1 S James
7.30 Sedge Papa Drew 1pt 9/1 generally (BOG) 10/1 Totesport

Darkan Road ran well, kept off the pace he came with a rattling late run on his chase debut but couldn't get past the winner, after starting at 9/2. We'll never know of course, but just a sense that if he was a bit closer to the pace he may have gone one better.

Then Papa Drew, who started at 15/2, put in a sterling effort, trading odds on in the closing stages after being right up there for the whole contest, he went down by a neck to the 20/1 winner.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Darkan Road, 2nd/5, 7/1 --- 9/2
Papa Drew, 2nd/11, 9//1 --- 15/2

Two good efforts, and on another day it would have been a cracker, but we shake ourselves down and look forward to tomorrrow!

Tuesday, 17 May 2011

Couple of profitable days back to back

May moves back into profit with a decent couple of days.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.00 Bath Sermons Mount 1pt 10-1 W Hill, Lads (BOG), S James (some 11s at Sky)
4.00 Bath Catchanova 1pt 6-1 B365, Hill, Betfred, Lads
6.00 Winds Miss Lahar 1pt 7-1 B365, 13-2 other BOG
7.30 Winds Dance Tempo 1pt 7-1 B365,Hill,Lads (BOG) S James, Tote

Sermons Mount started at 9/1 and was held up at the back before making eye catching progress for a while, but was just never going to get close to the leaders.

Catchanova was the subject of a good sized punt, going off at 5/2 in the end, but found next to nothing when asked to quicken and was most disappointing.

Miss Lahar ran quite well, always there or thereabouts, she hang left a bit when asked to quicken but stayed on quite nicely to finish third, after starting at 15/2.

So it was all eyes on Dance Tempo, and he put in a great showing. Always going comfortably, he stormed into the lead just over a furlong out and there was no stopping him, winning by 4 1/2 lengths in the end with plenty in hand. Got the price as well, with the selection going off at 9/2.

It gave us four points of profit on the day.

On to today and we had:

3.10 Southwell Tosula 1pt 7-1 W Hill, VC, Boyle
4.40 " Alfloramoor 1pt 5-1 P Power (BOG) Tote, S James
5.10 " Bureaucrat 2pts 16-1 Lads, B Square, 888, S James (14s BOG Betfred)
5.10 " Red Not Blue 1pt 5-1 W Hill, P Power, Betfred (BOG)

Tosula opened on course at 6/1 but drifted to 8s at the off, and was just never in it, being kept out the back and not able to quicken when he needed to, although she plugged on into fifth in the end.

Alfloramoor was also disappointing, trying to make all, he weakened tamely out of things, after starting at 9/2.

Then we had the unusual prospect for us of having two selections in a single race, which we do rarely but will if we feel it merits it. Obviously it can be costly when both go down, but today Red Not Blue merited his selection in no uncertain terms, always in contention, taking the lead between the last two hurdles, and driven clear to win very easily. BOG gave us an extra 1.5pts of profit.

Obviously we'd have loved to have seen Bureaucrat do the business given the staking and price, but although we got the price, with Kate Walton's 9yo starting at 10/1, really he was never looking a likely winner.

It all means 2.5pts of profit on the day.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 16th May 2011

Sermons Mount, 7th/12, 10/1 --- 9/1
Catchanova, 6th/7, 6/1 --- 5/2
Miss Lahar, 3rd/14, 7/1 ---- 15/2
Dance Tempo, 1st/8, 7/1 --- 9/2

Tuesday 17th May 2011

Tosula, 5th/11, 7/1 --- 8/1
Alfloramoor, 5th/9, 5/1 --- 9/2
Bureaucrat, 6th/10, 16/1 --- 10/1
Red Not Blue, 1st/10, 5/1 --- 13/2

So 6.5 points up in the last couple of days. Nothing too explosive, but if we could guarantee 3.25pts of profit every day for the rest of the year we'd certainly take that!

Monday, 16 May 2011

Quick update

We've not had chance for a proper update tonight, but just to quickly say we had a nice winner this evening, with Dance Tempo storming clear to win the 7.30 at Windsor at an advised 7/1 (sp 9/2). Earlier we had three others miss the target, although Miss Lahar ran a pretty decent race in the 6.00 at Windsor in her maiden to finish third for us.

So a nice four point profit on the day, proper update tomorrow!


Sunday, 15 May 2011

Close Kings

Another selection busted after trading short in-running today, with City Of The Kings backed down to 1.23 when coming with what looked a winning run in the 3.10 at Ripon. Not to be though, leaving us with a couple of points dropped on the day.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.30 Market Rasen Chevy To The Levy 1pt 7/1 Hills/Ladbrokes
4.10 Ripon City Of The Kings 1pt 8/1 Bet365/VC/Coral/ Bluesq 10/1 Stan James

Chevy To The Levy was nicely backed into 7/2 at the off, but he was outpaced when things got serious and finished a well beaten third.

City Of The Kings lost a few lengths at the start, although in fairness he was always going to be held up so it may have been the plan. Anyway he stayed on really well and looked a likely winner 200yds or so from home, but the fact he had to swerve around runners probably didn't help and he went down by just over a length in the end as he just flattened out close to the post. Interestingly, City Of The Kings' price shot up during the day on the exchanges for some reason, to open up 16/1 on course, when he was backed again into an SP of 10/1. Strange as there was clearly lots of optimism around. Betfair SP was 15.15, so the exchange layers really keen to get stuck in from somewhere - they almost got their fingers burnt!

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Chevy To The Levy, 3rd/5, 7/1 --- 7/2
City Of The Kings, 3rd/10, 8/1 --- 10/1

So a pretty frustrating weekend but we look forward to recouping things in the week ahead!

Saturday, 14 May 2011

Banging on the door x2!

Two second placed finishes from our two selections today, one beaten by a nose.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
6.20 Uttoxeter Terra Bleu 1pt 7/1 Boylesports/Coral/Stan James
7.30 Uttoxeter Laybach 1pt 5/1 Hills/Bet365/VC 11/2 Paddy Power

Terra Bleu was nicely supported into 9/2 at the off, and failed by the narrowest margin, a nose, after staying on really well in the run in. We'd put him up a selection a few weeks ago but he was a non-runner after being very heavily backed. One that got away!

Laybach also traded odds on in running for us tonight, as short as 1.74, but he was headed going over the last and had to settle for second, on his first start for Jim Goldie. He had been extremely well backed earlier in the day but drifted on track to an SP of 6/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Terra Bleu, 2nd/10, 7/1 --- 9/2
Layback, 2nd/10, 5/1 --- 6/1

So another couple of placed efforts today, the theme for the month really so far, but at least the vast majority of our selections are running well.

Racingproofing.com has done its latest update, and we're delighted to say our service is TOP of the last three months results of all tipsters, and also TOP of the last six months results. We're second over the last twelve months.

Friday, 13 May 2011

Banging on the door

We almost had a very nice boost going into the weekend tonight, Lesley's Choice, advised at 16/1 this morning (25/1 in a place) running a cracker in the last at Hamilton. We've had three big priced 2pt selections placed this month, one of them will come in again soon enough!

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.20 Newm Feruccio 1pt 7-1 B365 6-1 general
5.10 Newm Fantasy Explorer 1pt 8-1 Coral, Tote, B365
9.00 Ham Lesley's Choice 2pts 16-1 general, some 25s at B365

Ferruccio got very agitated in the stalls, and completely blew the start, but ran on really nicely and wasn't beaten that far in the end, after starting at 8/1.

Fantasy Explorer also ran well and was possibly a bit unlucky, just starting to really pick up, he was checked in running at a crucial stage and lost his chance, after going off at 8s.

Then came the very well supported Lesley's Choice. 25/1 was available for a few minutes after the email went out but we'll mark up as a 16/1 shot for us. Either way, terrific value was had as he was backed right down to 13/2 at the off. No excuses here, a good start, grabbed a place near the rail and was always there or thereabouts. Just for a moment it looked like he might pick up about half a furlong from home and get there but his run just flattened out, beaten less than two lengths, and well clear of fourth.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Ferruccio, 6th/11, 7/1 --- 8/1
Fantasy Explorer, 5th/8, 8/1 --- 8/1
Lesley's Choice, 3rd/11, 16/1 --- 13/2

Six meetings tomorrow, another busy morning for us to look forward to. We'll be doing our best to unearth a nice winner or two!

May back into profit

** This originally posted Thursday 12th May 2011 **

We had a cracking winner from our first selection today, to ensure a profitable day and push May back into profit. A slight shame that we couldn't build on it, but still a decent three points of profit.

We've priced up the winner as a 6/1 shot for us, although 7/1 was available for a good few minutes after the email was delivered. Likewise, Buck Mulligan we've marked up as a 9/1 shot.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.10 Salis Miss Topsy Turvy 1pt 6/1 generally
6.15 Newm Finley Connolly 1pt 15-2 B365, 7-1 S James, 6-1 Boyle
6.30 Lud Buck Mulligan 1pt 9-1 W Hill
6.50 Newm Spade 1pt 15-2 B365, VC, 7-1 W Hill

Miss Topsy Turvy was a fascinating runner for John Dunlop. Having shown next to nothing in her short career to date, she was nicely supported to show up a lot better today, going off at 11/2. She reared when leaving the stalls, and ran green for a long way, but then absolutely powered home to win going away. She touched almost 400 in runnning! Another example of a supported horse touching big prices in running in recent weeks but with the jock knowing that a lot is expected and not giving up. Really think there may be something in putting up speculative in running trades with our selections and seeing what happens, although further analysis is needed.

Anyway she has an Oaks entry, which is surely on the optimistic side, but she's sure to come on a bundle for today and probably an interesting horse to look out for.

We had a wait for a while for our next flurry of runners, and we couldn't add to our earlier success.

Finley Connolly had to wait an age to go into the stalls before his delayed race at Newmarket and ran extremely green and was never in it, after starting at 7/1.

Buck Mulligan also went off at 7/1 and was given a very patient ride out the back. He came with a good looking run but flattened out near the end to finish third.

Spade was another to look like she was going nicely (just above evens in running), but didn't find anything much when asked and finished well beaten, after going off at 6/1.

Confirmation of results with prices:
Miss Topsy Turvy, 1st/7, 6/1 --- 11/2
Finley Connolly, 6th/8, 15/2 --- 7/1
Buck Mulligan, 3rd/11, 9/1 --- 7/1
Spade, 9th/12, 15/2 --- 6/1

13 of our last 25 runners have made the frame, many at decent odds (including a narrowly beaten 16/1 shot). It feels like we could be just around the corner from another burst of wins, but we'll see.

Betfair SP results

** This originally posted on Wednesday 11th May 2011 **

Despite a relatively busy morning in the markets today, there were no suitable selections for us.

Of course it's a rare event for us to have no runners on any given day, but we will always keep our discipline and only advise when we have factors in our favour.

Anyway, we thought we'd take advantage of the lull in proceedings to look at our results to Betfair SP from January 1st 2011.

First of all, a reminder of how things are going to advised odds (with BOG occasionally in play):

294 Bets
43 Wins
Total Points Profit: +127.6pts
ROI: +39.14%

And this is how things are going to Betfair SP:

294 Bets
43 Wins
Total Points Profit: +92.46pts
ROI: +28.36%

This is including a reduction of 5% on every winning bet. It is no surprise that early odds are outperforming Betfair SP, as the majority of our winning selections see Betfair SP at a shorter price than advised in the morning. However it is interesting to note how BSP is holding up pretty well, with still an excellent ROI.

Tuesday, 10 May 2011

A couple of steps back

A fairly low key couple of days, and five points dropped, although we had a couple of decent efforts today.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
5.20 Red Dashing Eddie 1pt 8-1 WH, Bet365,VC,Betfred
8.10 Winds Sixty Roses 1pt 5-1 P Power (BOG) Coral, Skybet

It had turned into a really bleak day by the time Dashing Eddie ran at Redcar, and he didn't justify considerable support, by finishing 7th. He travelled nicely for a good while, trading at shorter than 2/1 in running, but it didn't happen, after starting at 4s.

Sixty Roses went off at 6/1 and just couldn't go with them when things got serious, finishing 6th.

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.20 Yarm Ongoodform 1pt 6-1 P Power, Betfred, 11-2 B365
5.10 Warw Looksmart 1pt 5-1 BOG
5.40 Warw Transfer 1pt 10-1 B365, W Hill (11-1 Betfred)
6.45 Sedg Great Ocean Road 1pt 11/2 Bet365

Ongoodform was nicely supported into 3/1 and ran quite well, finishing third after leading for a long way.

Looksmart got a poor start and just never really got into it afterwards, the 11/2 advised went quickly today so we'll put her up at 5/1. She started at 4/1, finishing 9th.

Then came another placed effort, Transfer who traded at almost 1/2 in running and was bang there in contention when he was carried across the track by the eventual winner, which may have cost him second. Starting at 9/1 he eventually finished third.

Great Ocean Road was a non-runner in the end, again the 11/2 we put up went quickly so had he run we would have marked him down as 5/1 had he raced.

Monday 9th May 2011:

Dashing Eddie, 7th/13, 8/1 --- 4/1
Sixty Roses, 6th/11, 5/1 --- 6/1

Tuesday 10th May 2011:

Ongoodform, 3rd/8, 6/1 --- 3/1
Looksmart, 9th/14, 5/1 --- 4/1
Transfer, 3rd/17, 10/1 --- 9/1
Great Ocean Road NR

On to tomorrow!

Sunday, 8 May 2011

Thirds are the order of the day

Not content with having five out of our seven selections yesterday finishing third, we had another today with Spanish Cruise just being run out of things in the first race of the day at Worcester.

Having a run of third placed finishes was possibly overdue, as in March we had only four of our 65 picks coming third (6.15%), and then in April we had six out of 79 in that position (7.6%).

Anyway today we had just the one pick:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.50 Worcester Spanish Cruise 1pt 5/1 Hills/Coral

And Spanish Cruise ran well, after starting at 5/1, he race prominently, always up there despite making the odd mistake. While he never really looked a likely winner (matched just over 2/1 in running), he was just beginning to pick up and stay on again approaching the last when he clattered the last hurdle and his chance was gone.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Spanish Cruise, 3rd/14, 5/1 --- 5/1

The racing continues to come thick and fast in the next few days and there's bound to be plenty of opportunities for us to hopefully take advantage of. Roll on Monday!

Saturday, 7 May 2011

Quick catch up

We've still one more to run tonight, but won't be able to update this evening, so thought we'd put up a quick review now of yesterday and today now. Close but no cigar kind of sums things up so far!* Now updated with final result of day.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.40 Chest Sioux Rising 1pt 11-2 W Hill (BOG) S James, Coral
5.20 Ascot She Aint A Saint 1pt 10-1 W Hill, Lads, VC BOG 11-1 Coral
6.45 Ripon Legal Eagle 2pts 16-1 Coral. 14-1 Lads (BOG)
8.00 Aintree Natural Action 1pt 10-1 Lads, Betfred
Sioux Rising got hampered in running after going off at 3/1, which certainly didn't help, and she came fifth in the end.

She Aint A Saint drifted massively to 20/1 and ran accordingly.

Legal Eagle was the one which really got away, leading a stride or two before the line but beaten a head on the post in the end, he possibly hit the run a tad too early but at least put in a cracking performance. He started at 10/1

So it was all eyes on Natural Action to give us a return on the day, but it didn't happen, with Peter Bowen's 7yo weakening out of things approaching two out.

And then on to today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.50 Nottingham Yurituni 1pt 8/1 Paddy Power/Betfred
3.50 Hexham Papa Drew 1pt 8/1 Boylesports/Bluesq
4.05 Nottingham Qushchi 1pt 9/2 Hills/Bet365 (5/1 Betfred)
4.35 Ascot Rock A Doodle Do 1pt 5/1 Bet365
4.55 Lingfield Nezami 2pt 14/1 Hills/Betfred
5.45 Warwick Euroquip Boy 2pt 16/1 Hills/Paddy Power (25/1 BetFred)
8.15 Warwick Valmina 1pt 10/1 Stan James/Skybet

So far today it's been five out of six placed, with one winner.

Yurituni, ran well, a bit outpaced, and a bit short of room near the finish, and was beaten a neck in the end, by the two dead-heat winners, after starting at 13/2.

Papa Drew also came third but was beaten a long way, despite substantial support (going off at 4/1).

Qushchi wasn't beaten far and may be capable of better, but could only finish third in his hot looking handicap at Nottingham, after starting at 7/2.

Then came a winner, a really gutsy performance from Rock A Doodle Do, getting bumped around and then bravely squeezing through a gap before powering home to win quite comfortably in the end, after going off at 9/2.

Then came our two big priced selections and we got decent performances out of both of them, although neither realistically looked like winning tobe fair.

Nezami was 10/1 at the off and came from well off the pace to finish third, while Euroquip Boy was also backed into 10/1 and was up there from the off, but just couldn't find that finishing kick and he also came third (a bit of a theme today!), albeit dead-heated for that position.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday May 6th 2011

Sioux Rising, 5th/14, 11/2 --- 3/1
She Aint A Saint, 10th/12, 10/1 --- 20/1
Legal Eagle, 2nd/14, 16/1 --- 10/1
Natural Action, 9th/11, 10/1 --- 8/1

Saturday May 7th 2011

Yurituni, 3rd/8 8/1 --- 13/2
Papa Drew, 3rd/8, 8/1 --- 4/1
Qushchi, 3rd/5, 9/2 --- 7/2
Rock A Doodle Do, 1st/12, 5/1 --- 9/2
Nezami, 3rd/12, 14/1 --- 10/1
Euroquip Boy, 3rd(dht)/12, 16/1 --- 10/1
Valmina, 7th/9, 10/1 --- 8/1

So one more left to run tonight, fingers crossed we can end a busy Saturday with a flourish!*

* Sadly it didn't happen!

Thursday, 5 May 2011

Cracking Day!!

A very nice two winners from our five selections today, giving a total profit of 11pts.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.05 Newton Abbot Peppertree Lane 1pt 10/1 Skybet/Totesport/Betfred
3.35 Newton Abbot Life Of A Luso 1pt 6/1 Lads 11/2 Generally BOG
3.50 Goodwood Desert Shine 1pt 6/1 Generally BOG (15/2 Sporting Bet)
4.10 Newton Abbot Carhue Princess 1pt 9/1 Lads/Hills (10/1 Stan James)
4.40 Newton Abbot Diamonpeg 1pt 8/1 Bet365/Lads/Boylesports

Most of these were very nicely backed, in particular the winners.

First up we had Pepertree Lane who went off at 11/2, and looked to make all, but couldn't manage it.

Life Of A Luso came next, after starting at 7/2, rewarded that support with a terrific late burst to win by almost a length, after looking like he was struggling a couple of fences from home.

Desert Shine was a bit short of room at Goodwood, but wouldn't have won, finishing 6th after going off at 13/2

Carhue Princess was there or thereabouts, albeit pushed along, when her rider lost his irons, and she was pulled up after that.

Then came Diamonpeg, who was very well backed right into 7/2, and put in a great front running performance to repel all challengers and win by just over three lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Pepertree Lane, 7th/12, 10/1 --- 11/2
Life Of A Luso, 1st/9, 6/1 --- 7/2
Desert Shine, 6th/11, 6/1 --- 13/2
Carhue Princess, PU/10, 9/1 --- 11/2
Diamonpeg, 1st/13, 8/1 --- 7/2

So a very good day, which gives May a very sound platform on which to build, 12 points up and counting!

Wednesday, 4 May 2011

May into profit

A good winner at Catterick has ensured that May is, albeit marginally, into profit.

We'll start with yesterday's action. We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.10 Newcastle Almond Branches 1pt 11/2 Bet365/Hills (6/1 Boylesports/Stan James)
6.00 Catterick Judas Jo 1pt 8/1 Skybet/Stan James 15/2 Coral
7.50 Exeter Livinginthefuture 1pt 5/1 Hills/Stan James (6/1 Youwin.com)

Almond Branches went off at 6/1, and was there or thereabouts but faded towards the end to finish fourth.

We had better success with our next 2yo maiden race, with Judas Jo looking a little outpaced at one stage in the opener at Catterick, before charging home to win going away by nearly two lengths, after starting at 15/2.

Livinginthefuture was 9/4 at the off, but was just never travelling and in the end finished a remote fourth.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.30 Chester Green Park 2pt 12/1 Lads/VC 11/1 Hills/Boylesports
8.00 Sedgefield Justwhateverulike 1pt 5/1 Hills 9/2 Bet365/VC/Lads/Boylesports
Green Park had a good draw at Chester but was outpaced and finished well beaten in the end, after starting at 10/1.

Justwhateverulike was pulled out not long before the off at Sedgefield tonight, after being backed into 4/1 generally.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

3rd May 2011

Almond Branches, 4th/7, 11/2 --- 6/1
Judas Jo, 1st/8, 8/1 --- 15/2
Livinginthefuture, 4th/7, 5/1 --- 9/4

4th May 2011

Green Park, 11th/13, 12/1 --- 10/1
Justwhateverulike NR

So it means we're a point up for May right now - as the racing continues to come thick and fast there are bound to be plenty of opportunities to build on it, we'll be working hard to do just that.

Monday, 2 May 2011

April Analysis

Time for a look back at April, which was a funny month all told. It took us a while to get going, and in the end it was good to finish with a profit of 8pts, to make it three months of profits in a row, albeit without the spectacular success of February and March.

Let's look at the stats

We had:

Bets: 79

Wins: 11 (13.92%)
2nds: 5 (6.33%)
3rds: 6 (7.6%)
Placed total: 21 (27.85%)
Average odds taken: 7.67/1
Average SP: 6.95/1
Average win odds: 6.36/1
Profit/Loss: +8pts
Return On Investment: +8.89%

A fairly poor month in terms of the number of placed selections, but the win rate holding up reasonably despite some poor spells of results. The most important stat of all held up nicely, with the average odds advised at 7.67/1 beating the average SP of 6.95/1. We had two or three very big drifters, including Short Supply near the start of the month advised at 8/1 going off at 20/1, which obviously affects the stats a tad. Still, perfectly respectable.

Just a quick note on that, those advised odds vs SP odds would look much better of course if we counted SP as our advised price if we had suggested a BOG bookie. For example, Short Supply would have been a 20/1 winner for us had he actually had won, but we don't think that's a fair way to analyse whether we're beating SP.

So all told another good month, although not as explosively profitable as February and March.

Hopefully we can keep things going in May!

Bank Holiday catch up

A fairly frustrating few days to reflect on as we catch up on the Bank Holiday weekend action.

Let's start on Friday when we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
7.45 Bangor Soulard 1pt 10/1 Lads/VC
8.05 Fontwell Act Gold 1pt 10/1 Hills/Boylesports (may be some 11/1 at Paddy Power/Betfred)

Soulard was also a selection for us earlier this month when he finished unplaced at Ascot, and wasn't helped by being hampered. The money came again and this time he ran into a place, finishing second, albeit well behind the easy winner, after starting at 9/1.

Act Gold drifted out to 16/1 at SP but ran well in his first outing for well over a year, and for a new yard. Going really sweetly about with a couple of hurdles to jump he was trading at evens in running, but just couldn't find anything when asked and ended up finishing third.

On to Saturday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.35 Thirsk Our Joe Mac 2pt 14/1 Lads/Hills 12/1 generally BOG
3.50 Uttoxeter Lean Burn 1pt 5/1 Lads/Paddy Power
4.00 Goodwood Kanaf 1pt 6/1 Lads/Hills/VC/Betfred/Boylesports
5.30 Uttoxeter Millers Dawn 1pt 9/1 Lads 8/1 Bet365/Betfred

After the thrill of watching Frankel pulverise the opposition in the Guineas, it was off to Thirsk for our first selection of the day, but Our Joe Mac was well beaten in the Hunt Cup, after starting at 14/1

Lean Burn was supported into 7/2 and ran fairly well, always prominent, trading just above evens at one stage, but he couldn't quicken when it mattered and he finished third.

Kanaf got bumped at the start, and lost a couple of lengths and it was always going to be difficult after that. He was allowed to coast home in his own time after meeting some trouble in running too and may be one to look out for.

Millers Dawn was backed down to 9/2 at the off, and traded at 1.30 in running as he approached the last in the lead still moving well, but he made a right hash of things and lost all momentum. Then came the favourite to "win" the race before poor old Peter Carberry mistook the winning line, allowing our selection to get up for second, beaten a neck in the end.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.25 Newmarket Rio Grande 1pt 13/2 Hills 6/1 BOG generally

It was Rio Grande's first appearance on a racecourse and is clearly highly regarded, nicely backed for the Future Stars contest at Newmarket, but refused to go in the stalls. The way the winner won the race, Commissar it may have been the best result for us, but who knows.

Rio Grande NR

And then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.50 Bev Surely This Time 1pt 11-2 VC, B365
4.20 Bev Seldom 1pt 5-1 general BOG
5.25 Winds Welsh Inlet 1pt 6-1 Lads, 5-1 WH

Surely This Time started at 7/1, and fluffed the start and was never in it.

Seldom went off at 4/1 but was below par, weakening out of things tamely.

Then came Welsh Inlet, who was pretty unlucky, Luke Morris didn't get the best of starts out of him, and then he had a tough passage, just not seeing much daylight at all until it was too late and he flashed home to beaten a neck after starting at 6/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

29th April 2011:

Soulard, 2nd/5, 10/1 --- 9/1
Act Gold, 3rd/7, 10/1 --- 16/1

30th April 2011:

Our Joe Mac, 13th/15, 14/1 --- 14/1
Lean Burn, 3rd/7, 5/1 --- 7/2
Kanaf, 11th/11, 6/1 --- 6/1
Millers Dawn, 2nd/12, 9/1 --- 9/2

1st May 2011:

Rio Grande NR

2nd May 2011:

Surely This Time, 9th/11, 11/2 --- 7/1
Seldom, 7th/7, 5/1 --- 4/1
Welsh Inlet, 2nd/9, 6/1 --- 6/1

So all in all on another day or two we would have had a couple of winners, but that's racing for you, we'll brush ourselves down and get going again tomorrow!