Thursday, 29 November 2012

Back in action

The last week's been quiet period for us, with racing seriously hampered by abandonments, and when there's been some racing on, nothing for us to quite get involved with.

Today though, we had two go for us.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.55         Uttoxeter              Marleno                        1pt                          9/1 Paddy Power/BetVictor/Boyles/Stan James 10/1 Bet365/Skybet
3.55         Taunton                Umustbejoking              1pt                          12/1 + generally inc. 14/1 Coral/BetVictor/Boyles/SportingBet 20/1 Stan James

Marleno was given a patient ride from the back, and eased through looking a big danger two out, trading at 6/4 in running. A slow jump at the last didn't help and that, perhaps coupled with his big weight, put paid to his chances as he faded towards the finish, though still managed to keep on for a placed finish in third.

Umustbejoking went on to be weak in the markets so we feared the worst, and so it transpired, with the 4yo folding tamely after making the running for much of the contest. 

Summary of Results:

Marleno, 3rd/11, 10/1 --- 9/1
Umustbejoking, PU/8, 14/1 --- 20/1

A busy day of action in store for the last day of the month tomorrow, and hopefully we can end November on a high.

Friday, 23 November 2012

Friday update

We've had three run for us since our last update. We'll start on Tuesday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)


3.10        Folkestone            Reste Jeune                    1pt                           5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Lads/PaddyPower/Totesport/Boyles/Betfred/BlueSq

Reste Jeune was quite nicely supported into an SP of 4/1, but was well beaten.

On Wednesday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40        Hexham                Ruff Diamond                1pt                          7/1 generally 15/2 Bet365/SportingBet 8/1 Totesport

Ruff Diamond went off at 5/1 and was there or thereabouts before making a mistake three out and weakening out of it soon after.

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10        Market Rasen         Capisci                        1pt                          11/2 Hills/Bet365/PP/Boyles/Skybet  6/1Totesport/Betfred 13/2 Stan James/SportingBet

Capisci went off at 7/1 and ran well for a long time, sharing the lead with the eventual winner, before being a bit tapped for toe as they swung for home. But Liam Treadwell's mount came again and was staying on well before making a critical mistake at the last, which handed the race to Pickworth. He was perhaps unlikely to have rallied well enough to get up, but a flying jump at the last would have made things interesting. 

We had no selections today (Friday).

Summary of Results:

Tuesday 20th November 2012:

Reste Jeune, PU/6, 11/2 --- 4/1

Wednesday 21st November 2012:

Ruff Diamond, 7th/7, 15/2 -- 5/1

Thursday 22nd November 2012:

Capisci, 2nd/5, 6/1 --- 7/1

On to the weekend! Hope you have a good one.

Monday, 19 November 2012

Results Update

Time for a look back at the last few days, which have been pretty quiet all told. We had no selections on Friday and Saturday, and then yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.40         Fontwell                Call at Midnight            1pt                           9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills/Bet365/BetVictor/Totesport/Boyles&others

Call At Midnight went off a quite nicely backed 7/1 shot, but when things got serious began to struggle quite quickly, ending well back.

Then today we had a couple at Plumpton:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.50         Plumpton              Sun Quest                    1pt                           5/1 Bet365/Hills/BetVictor/Boyles 11/2 Totesport/BetFred/Skybet
3.20         Plumpton              Laughing Game            1pt                           6/1 generally 13/2 Coral/Stan James
We'll never really know, but we may have missed out on one with Sun Quest. Despite not having won for more than 2 1/2 years, he continued to be supported right down to 7/2 at SP, but was going along quite nicely when he fell at the third hurdle.

Laughing Game came second of four runners half an hour later, after drifting to 9/1 at the off. She made a series of mistakes but was still there pitching as they turned for home, only to be readily outgunned by the winner.

Summary of Results:

Sunday 18th November 2012:

Call At Midnight, 8th/8, 10/1 --- 7/1

Monday 19th November 2012:

Sun Quest, F/9, 11/2 --- 7/2
Laughing Game, 2nd/4, 13/2 --- 9/1

Things still looking very healthy for the month and we look to see if we can get back to winning ways tomorrow.

Thursday, 15 November 2012

Quiet couple of days

Not much to report on from the last couple of days, with one well backed selection yesterday not managing to make it three winners on the bounce for us, and then no picks today.

So just the one to look back on, yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40         Exeter                   Quix                             1pt                             9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Hills/Bluesq/Stan James/SportingBet

Bob Buckler's 6yo was well backed all day, going off 11/4 favourite in the end. Sadly the horse didn't really follow the script with the distress signals being sent out all too early, and he eventually fell when beaten three out. A lot of confidence behind this one, and if none the worse for wear, perhaps there's reason to think more should be expected in the coming weeks/months.

Summary of Result:

14th November 2012

Quix, F/10, 5/1 --- 11/4

And then  despite a few of interest today, we had no selections and we look forward to the Open meeting at Cheltenham starting tomorrow.

Tuesday, 13 November 2012

Good to be Cranky

A terrific winner today, with Cranky Corner winning at Lingfield at 12/1. He was our only selection, and continues what's been a really good November so far.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.00        Lingfield                 Cranky Corner             1pt                           10/1 generally 11/1 BetVictor 12/1 Hills/Stan James

This was an interesting selection, and we felt the money around this morning was highly informative, and so it proved. It was Cranky Corner's first run for a new trainer, Helen Nelmes, and first run for more than six months. This was also a horse who had shown some cracking form in the past, notably when seventh in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham for Willie Mullins a few years ago. Things obviously hasn't all gone to plan since for various trainers, including Jonjo O'Neill,  but he's shown definite levels of ability and today off a good mark and clearly showing something at home, he was nicely supported this morning to go well. An interesting market pre-race, the layers seemed determined to get stuck into him, but he came back again at the end to have a BSP of 13.57, and an SP of 12/1. 

In any case, as for the race, he was always travelling nicely for Sam Thomas, and made smooth progress to lead coming to the last fence, and always had enough in the tank to win by a neck, great stuff and you just wonder if there may be a bit more to come if the handicapper isn't too harsh on him. 

Summary of Result:

Cranky Corner, 1st/8, 12/1 --- 12/1

We're 20pts up now for November, and long may this current run continue.

Monday, 12 November 2012

Positivity wins the day

A good winner today to kick the working week off in the best possible style, with Whats Up Woody winning well at Carlisle, rewarding a really strong, positive ride by Wilson Renwick.

He was our only selection:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.55         Carlisle                 Whats Up Woody          1pt                         9/2 Lads/Totesport&others 5/1 Hills/BetVictor/StanJames

And Renwick gave him a peach of a ride, always up there, he kicked on nice and early and made it a real test, with the horse responding beautifully for him, after going off a nicely backed 4/1. The John Wade trained 7yo jumped really well and put in a lovely couple of leaps late on to help keep challengers at bay, in the end winning by a length and a half. Good to see, and pushes November further into profit. 

Summary of Result:

Whats Up Woody, 1st/4, 5/1 --- 4/1

After seven selections for November, we're eight points up, a decent start to the month and we look forward to trying to build on it in the coming days.

Sunday, 11 November 2012

Weekend update

In terms of selections, a quiet one for us, with just the one yesterday and nothing quite there today.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.15         Kelso                   Glaced Over                 1pt                           11/1+generally inc. 12/1 PP/Betfred 14/1 Bet365/Totesport/Betfred

Plenty of cash around for this one, with Raymond Shiels' 7yo going off at 5/1 after opening on track at 7/1. Sadly the support didn't prove justified on this occasion, with Glaced Over folding away tamely quite some way from home after leading in the early stages, before eventually falling at the last hurdle.

Summary of Result

10th November 2012:

Glaced Over, F/8, 14/1 --- 5/1

Here's to a good week ahead.

Friday, 9 November 2012

The importance of beating BSP

We hope you're well. A couple of points have been handed back in the last couple of days thanks to two well backed selections finishing unplaced. It's a strange game this one. On Wednesday we had Bravo Bravo who started with a Betfair Starting Price of 12.78, 42% longer than the 8/1 we advised at in the morning - who hacked up, despite our overall poor record with those selections of ours which drift by that amount. And then, since Wednesday, we have had two selections which have tightened up nicely in the market. Mountskip (11/2 into 4.27 (bsp)) and then, today, Duke Of Ormond (6/1 into 3.56(bsp)), and both ran unplaced.

Mountskip shortened in price by 34.31%, Duke Of Ormond by 49.1%.

Some interesting figures here (if you're into this sort of thing). Since January 1st, 2010 to Aug 31st 2012, these are the results of all horses of ours which went off at 34% or more shorter than we advised at:

215 bets
51 wins (23.72% strike rate)
Profit: +265.2pts
ROI: 123.35%

So, in the context of these last three days, Bravo Bravo looks the better tip - after all, this was the horse which won (and won really well) - but if you ask us which bets we would like to run 500 times, well it's going to be our two losers. So, while we've dropped a couple of points since Wednesday, we feel very much on the right lines.

For what it's worth, here are our results broken down by some bracket of price shifts to BSP:

Reduction in price of 60%-85%:
24 bets
5 wins (20.83% s/r)
Profit: +48pts
ROI: +200%
(There were also another eight second placed finishers among these 24, and seven of those who didn't win traded odds-on in running.)

Reduction in price of 40%-59.99%
119 bets
24 wins (20.17%)
Profit: +102.25pts
ROI: +85.94%

Reduction in price of 20%-39.99%
316 bets
58 wins (18.35%)
Profit: +171.05pts
ROI: +54.13%

Reduction in price of 0% - 19.99%
429 bets
68 wins (15.85%)
Profit: +77.15pts
ROI: +17.15%

Increase in price of 0.01% - 19.99%
299 bets
39 wins (13.04%)
Profit: - 9.93pts
ROI: -3.35%

Increase in price of 20%-39.99%
213 bets
29 wins (13.62%)
Profit: +14.17pts
ROI: +6.94%

Increase in price of 40%-59.99%
121 bets
7 wins (5.78%)
Profit: -67.5pts
ROI: -55.75%

Increase in price of 60% or more
215 bets
13 wins (6.05%)
Profit: -110pts
ROI: -51.13%

In the past, we've had the odd subscriber express frustration when we talk about "getting the value" - "value doesn't pay the bills" I remember one emailing a while back, but these stats confirm really the importance (for us, anyway) of backing at bigger odds than a horse starts at. Interestingly, our picks can be up to 39.99% bigger at BSP and still be (marginally) profitable, but it's undoubtedly shown that our best results are from those horses which continue to shorten nicely all the way to the off - much like those horses from the last couple of days. Without any further ado let's have a quick look back at them.

On Thursday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
 4.00         Musselburgh         Mountskip                      1pt                           11/2 + generally 6/1 Bet365/Totesport/Boyles/Betfred/SportingBet 7/1 Stan James

A few minutes after our email went out, Mountskip's price shortened rapidly, in much more of a dramatic way than we ever affect the market, so we can only put this down to the horse being a tip elsewhere after us. Either way, 11/2 was the best price available (with Bet Victor) ten minutes after our email was sent, although many members would have got 6 or 7/1. Either way, it was pleasing to see Rose Dobbin's 8yo backed into 3/1 at the off, on his first showing in nearly two years. Plenty expected then, and he nearly delivered, travelling beautifully with a couple of flights left to go, he traded at 1.25 in running but just as he was asked to go and win his race, he couldn't finish the job and in the end was run out of the places. He pulled a bit hard early on, and that probably didn't help. One which got away.

Then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10         Fontwell                Duke Of Ormond         1pt                          11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/BetVictor/Coral/Boyles/Sky/Stan James/Sportingbet

Another well backed sort, this giant 9yo was having his first start over hurdles for a good while, and went off a really well supported 5/2 shot. He was given a reminder early on, and was pushed along some way out, but he was still there with every chance as they came to the second last flight, but he didn't have enough in the tank and like Mountskip, finished out of the frame.

Summary of Results

Thursday 8th November 2012:

Mountskip, 5th/9, 11/2 --- 3/1

Friday 9th November 2012:

Duke Of Ormond, 5th/7, 6/1 --- 5/2

So on we go to tomorrow, have a great weekend, let's hope it's a profitable one.

Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Bravo, Bravo Bravo

A cracking winner today in the shape of Bravo Bravo at Chepstow. We've had to be quite patient waiting for the right opportunities since our restart, but it paid off today with Mark Gillard's 5yo winning in good style.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.15        Chepstow              Bravo Bravo                 1pt                           7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Bet Victor/Boylesports/Stan James 8/1 Totesport/Skybet/Betfred/Bluesq

And this was a pillar to post victory, with Tommy Phelan keeping his mount in the lead throughout and then decisively kicking for home four out to thrust Bravo Bravo clear. He made some really scratchy jumps in the closing straight, but still managed to win by more than two lengths and I think it's fair to say that if he'd have jumped better he'd have won by a good deal further, great stuff and a big well done (or should that be bravo) to connections.

Summary of Result

Bravo Bravo, 1st/8, 8/1 --- 8/1

Just a quick note about Bravo Bravo's BSP price - which was 12.78 (and he was matched at two or three points bigger than that just as the race started). Those who read our recent statistical summaries will know of the usual poor performance of horses which go off more than 2pts bigger at BSP from the advised price (strike rate of just over 6% - compared to 16.55% for those horses who go off no longer than 2pts larger) - but it just goes to show that horses of ours fairly weak just prior to the off can run big races, albeit it's not so common. It was an interesting exchange market just prior to the race actually, as Bravo Bravo was relatively solid, trading at around 8/1 for a good while right up to a minute or two before the off, but then drifted markedly, partly because of the sustained support for Noble Perk who opened at 4/1 and went off at 15/8. Not much more to be said really, just a word of warning that laying to recover stake at big prices can bite (albeit in this case returns of 8/1 of course would have dampened the loss somewhat). It's a strategy that over the long term could help strengthen profits, but it's certainly not without its dangers, and at present we are some way off making this "official" advice.

So we're six points up for the month, a good start since the break, and we look forward to seeing what tomorrow will bring.

Sunday, 4 November 2012

Up and running!

We hope you had a good weekend. A pretty low-key start to our new season, with a couple of unplaced efforts and a non-runner, but it's great to be underway again and we're excited about the months ahead, and feeling extremely confident that the small tweaks we're making to our selection process will reap dividends.

A quick look back at the first few days then, starting last Thursday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10         Statford                Rossmore Lad               1pt                         13/2 Bet365 7/1 Hills/Coral/BetVictor/Totesport &others 15/2 BlueSq/SkyBet

Who was sadly a non-runner.

Then on Friday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.50         Uttoxeter              Blackstone Vegas         1pt                           11/2 Hills/Lads/Bet365 &others 6/1 Sportingbet/Bluesq 13/2 Totesport

Derek Shaw's 6yo went off at 7/1, and didn't do much, going along nicely enough for a while but finding nothing when asked to improve, finshing sixth in the end.

Unusally for a Saturday we had no selections on the 3rd November.

And then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10             Carlisle                   My Boy Paddy                      1pt                          5/1 Hills/Coral/Totesport/Bluesq/SkyBet/BetFred/Sportingbet
My Boy Paddy went off at 4/1 and was given a very patient ride by Sam Twiston-Davies, held up out the back, he began to creep into things before just being found a bit flat-footed when the action got serious and he was never able to challenge. He was nicely backed this morning, and could be one to keep an eye on going forward.

Summary of Results

Thursday 1st November

Rossmore Lad, NR

Friday 2nd November

Blackstone Vegas, 6th/11, 13/2 --- 7/1

Saturday 3rd November

No selections

Sunday 4th November

My Boy Paddy, 5th/9, 5/1 --- 4/1

Here's to a good week ahead!