Friday, 9 November 2012

The importance of beating BSP

We hope you're well. A couple of points have been handed back in the last couple of days thanks to two well backed selections finishing unplaced. It's a strange game this one. On Wednesday we had Bravo Bravo who started with a Betfair Starting Price of 12.78, 42% longer than the 8/1 we advised at in the morning - who hacked up, despite our overall poor record with those selections of ours which drift by that amount. And then, since Wednesday, we have had two selections which have tightened up nicely in the market. Mountskip (11/2 into 4.27 (bsp)) and then, today, Duke Of Ormond (6/1 into 3.56(bsp)), and both ran unplaced.

Mountskip shortened in price by 34.31%, Duke Of Ormond by 49.1%.

Some interesting figures here (if you're into this sort of thing). Since January 1st, 2010 to Aug 31st 2012, these are the results of all horses of ours which went off at 34% or more shorter than we advised at:

215 bets
51 wins (23.72% strike rate)
Profit: +265.2pts
ROI: 123.35%

So, in the context of these last three days, Bravo Bravo looks the better tip - after all, this was the horse which won (and won really well) - but if you ask us which bets we would like to run 500 times, well it's going to be our two losers. So, while we've dropped a couple of points since Wednesday, we feel very much on the right lines.

For what it's worth, here are our results broken down by some bracket of price shifts to BSP:

Reduction in price of 60%-85%:
24 bets
5 wins (20.83% s/r)
Profit: +48pts
ROI: +200%
(There were also another eight second placed finishers among these 24, and seven of those who didn't win traded odds-on in running.)

Reduction in price of 40%-59.99%
119 bets
24 wins (20.17%)
Profit: +102.25pts
ROI: +85.94%

Reduction in price of 20%-39.99%
316 bets
58 wins (18.35%)
Profit: +171.05pts
ROI: +54.13%

Reduction in price of 0% - 19.99%
429 bets
68 wins (15.85%)
Profit: +77.15pts
ROI: +17.15%

Increase in price of 0.01% - 19.99%
299 bets
39 wins (13.04%)
Profit: - 9.93pts
ROI: -3.35%

Increase in price of 20%-39.99%
213 bets
29 wins (13.62%)
Profit: +14.17pts
ROI: +6.94%

Increase in price of 40%-59.99%
121 bets
7 wins (5.78%)
Profit: -67.5pts
ROI: -55.75%

Increase in price of 60% or more
215 bets
13 wins (6.05%)
Profit: -110pts
ROI: -51.13%

In the past, we've had the odd subscriber express frustration when we talk about "getting the value" - "value doesn't pay the bills" I remember one emailing a while back, but these stats confirm really the importance (for us, anyway) of backing at bigger odds than a horse starts at. Interestingly, our picks can be up to 39.99% bigger at BSP and still be (marginally) profitable, but it's undoubtedly shown that our best results are from those horses which continue to shorten nicely all the way to the off - much like those horses from the last couple of days. Without any further ado let's have a quick look back at them.

On Thursday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
 4.00         Musselburgh         Mountskip                      1pt                           11/2 + generally 6/1 Bet365/Totesport/Boyles/Betfred/SportingBet 7/1 Stan James

A few minutes after our email went out, Mountskip's price shortened rapidly, in much more of a dramatic way than we ever affect the market, so we can only put this down to the horse being a tip elsewhere after us. Either way, 11/2 was the best price available (with Bet Victor) ten minutes after our email was sent, although many members would have got 6 or 7/1. Either way, it was pleasing to see Rose Dobbin's 8yo backed into 3/1 at the off, on his first showing in nearly two years. Plenty expected then, and he nearly delivered, travelling beautifully with a couple of flights left to go, he traded at 1.25 in running but just as he was asked to go and win his race, he couldn't finish the job and in the end was run out of the places. He pulled a bit hard early on, and that probably didn't help. One which got away.

Then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10         Fontwell                Duke Of Ormond         1pt                          11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/BetVictor/Coral/Boyles/Sky/Stan James/Sportingbet

Another well backed sort, this giant 9yo was having his first start over hurdles for a good while, and went off a really well supported 5/2 shot. He was given a reminder early on, and was pushed along some way out, but he was still there with every chance as they came to the second last flight, but he didn't have enough in the tank and like Mountskip, finished out of the frame.

Summary of Results

Thursday 8th November 2012:

Mountskip, 5th/9, 11/2 --- 3/1

Friday 9th November 2012:

Duke Of Ormond, 5th/7, 6/1 --- 5/2

So on we go to tomorrow, have a great weekend, let's hope it's a profitable one.

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