Thursday, 31 May 2012

Ending with a flourish

What a strange month May's been, we started really well, had a very poor run in the middle, and finished strongly, thanks to four winners in our last 14 picks, including a lovely 6/1 winner last night, and 10/1 return today (although many members would have got 12/1 or 11/1).

Today's came courtesy of Autarch staying on really strongly to win the 3.05 at Brighton, and last night we had an eight length winner in the form of Landaman in the last at Beverley. Great stuff.

It means we're up by 16.57pts in the end, a ROI of 22.09%, our best month of the year so far. Sure it could have been even better had a few other things fallen our way, but we're not complaining and we look forward to June with a spring in our step.

We'll return soon with our full review for May.


Just as a foot-note today, we thought we'd copy over part of our latest results update which we send to members, looking at more detail about today's winner - in particular the fact he was matched in 1000 in-running:


Jim Crowley got a terrific tune out of Autarch. One of the first off the bridle, he was seemingly tapped for toe, which is no surprise as Amanda Perrett's 3yo probably wants further, but he stayed on really strongly in the last furlong to win in the last 30 yards to get up by 3/4 length. It didn't look the likeliest of winners a furlong or so from home, but he wasn't completely out of it so it came as quite a shock when a subscriber pointed out he'd been layed at 1000 for £54 in running. Ouch ouch ouch.

It's interesting actually, one of our long-held theories has been that it might be worth putting our selections up at big-prices in-running, with the theory being that a jock on a horse told that he should win, or at least get a place, won't give up as early as some. It turned out to not quite ring true (based on since Jan 1st 2010) last time we looked into it. But that's the second 1000 in-running winner we've had (from just over 1600 selections) so that's now a profitable line.

If you're interested, here's our last one - Stow - back in November 2010 -

And here's another that hit 1000 in running two or three times, before trading at 1.03 (and then losing) - our first selection of this very busy day back in January 2011 -

Obviously it's the sort of punt that would suit only the most patient of folk, and it would be achingly annoying to have a winner hit 1000 and actually not get matched because you're down the queue, but still it's quite intriguing nonetheless. Maybe putting up 990 or such would off-set that. 


Worth a thought or two anyway! If you're a long-term reader and never joined, why not do so today. 

Monday, 28 May 2012

Act Your Shoe Size

Quick one tonight to say well done to Keith Dalgleish and connections of Act Your Shoe Size, who landed a nice gamble for us at Carlisle (7/1), our only selection of the day.

Well backed this morning, she drifted a little during the day before being nibbled back in course to go off at 7s, and she was ridden from the front and held off two fast finishing closers to bravely get up by a head. Cracking stuff!

Saturday, 26 May 2012

GTV (aka Got/Get/Getting The Value)

We've not had the best of it since our last update, although we continue to get the value, in the main, and that's the main thing, as our members probably tire of us talking about!

We're in profit for May still, but there's no getting away from the fact that we've had a poor run since Jolly Roger went in for us on 13th May. It's always useful to double check prices stats at times like this. Well, from the 30 selections which have run since then, on only seven occasions has SP been bigger than advised (and that's price taken ten minutes after selections are distributed). In 20 cases we've got better than SP, 3 times the same. We've secured an average of 6.95/1 whereas the SP has been an average of 6.3/1. The prices are scewed somewhat, also by a couple of pretty big drifters, for example Hollinwell 5/1 --- 10/1, Tyup Pompey 8/1 --- 14/1. Without these two we would be looking at 6.98/1 average advised price, to an average SP of 5.9/1

It really is important to know that this value is being secured, if only to help keep a positive mindset! For example if we repeated today's bet, on Hadaj 1000 times, getting 11/2 about a 4/1 shot, we'll be in very good order.

So we look ahead to tomorrow, and beyond for a similar sort of positive value return, but hopefully some financial rewards with actual results. They will come, it'd just be nice for it to happen in an explosive way, starting tomorrow!

Saturday, 12 May 2012

Correction coming?

We're enjoying a good run at the moment, with eight winners from our last 40 selections - at an average advised price of 7.54/1 (odds taken ten minutes after selections posted). It means a profit of 25.8pts (+58.3% ROI).

This included today's winner from our only selection, Moretta Blanche (8/1), bravely getting up to win at Ascot after being barged about threading her way through.

We've been talking for too long now about being due a correction after a slow few months. We've hit numerous seconds, and had too many well backed sorts not perform as expected. It's all left things a bit flat. Not losing anything really, but not making the explosive gains we know can come along.

It's interesting looking at our graph of results since Jan 2010, when accompanied with a linear trends line:

So, assuming this trends line is accurate (and this is just a linear Excel trends line with the intercept at 0,0) we can see that we've had times where we've outperformed ourselves but also had times where we've under-performed.

Right now, we're under-performing in comparison to long term trends, so we feel we're due a boost upwards. We're sitting with 288.91pts of profit, when according to the trends line, we should/could in theory be sitting with just over 350pts. Well we can easily go back and find several selections over the last few months which came damn close to giving us these lost 60 or so points.On occasions, too, we have to admit that our staking has been too conservative, so we haven't had the returns from good priced winners that we should have had. This is something which we reminded ourselves just a few days ago, and already it's paid dividends.

Fundamentally, what we know is that when things go for us, they really go for us, so with any luck these next few weeks will see this correction play out!

With that in mind, it might very well be an excellent time to join us, and make the most of our variance righting itself in a positive manner.

Spaces are available at the moment, from just £17/month. Come and join the ride!

Wednesday, 9 May 2012

Pushing on

Good to report another profitable day, with Mister Hyde (9/2adv) winning at Ffos Las tonight albeit in a fortunate manner.

Well backed all the way down to 5/2 for AP and Jonjo O'Neill on his return to hurdles, he travelled nicely through the race despite awful conditions and tried to extend clear when asked to by McCoy. It looked good, but then Martial Law came out of the pack with a strong looking run, and took things up. It looked like we were fighting a losing battle, when Martial Law came down at the last leaving the selection clear and he had enough in the tank to win by more than two lengths. A pretty lucky winner in the end, but they're there to be jumped as they say!

Things just beginning to turn our way it seems, and despite a few near misses this month, we're nicely in profit for May (+21.57pts +89.88%ROI) . Let's hope the rain clears up so we have fewer abandonments and plenty more opportunities for us to keep it going.

Tuesday, 8 May 2012

Take a bow Royal Curtsy

A cracking 10/1 2pt winner today in the shape of Royal Curtsy at Fakenham, who put in cracking display to win today's Mares' handicap hurdle at Fakenham. 

She was asked to go and win her race three out and she took a decisive lead which she held on to all the way to the line. She jumped poorly throughout so it's to her great credit she was there with a good lead going over the last, and despite tiring late on she always had enough on her handicap debut. Well done to all connections, great job.

After narrow 2nd placed defeats in recent days at 12/1, 7/1 and 6/1 among others it was about time we got a nice bank boost and we'll be looking for plenty more of the same in the days ahead.
Roll on tomorrow!

Thursday, 3 May 2012

April Review

Before we look at the month of April, a quick note about results the last couple of days. We had a good winner yesterday in the form of Meet Me At Dawn at Southwell to follow up Tuesday's success, although today we missed the target with our two selections, (albeit one was backed from 12/1 down to 6/1, so at least the value was there). 

Time, then, for our look back at April, which started well and then had a poor run in the middle before picking up a little again at the end.

We ended the month down by 4.15pts in the end. Not for the first time, if we had set 1pt win singles throughout, we would have outperformed official results. Interestingly while 2012 is so far showing a small loss to official stakes (-8.82pts), we would have been in profit (+14.43pts) if we had kept to 1pt win singles throughout (more if we had staked more heavily on some selections as we may have done, more on that in moment). That's obviously not the idea and staking is something we continue to look at. 

Anyway on to the stats, we had:

Bets: 56
Wins: 6 (10.71%)
2nds: 6 (10.71%)
3rds: 4 (7.14%)
Placed total: 16 (28.57%)
Average odds taken: 8.93/1
Average SP: 8.08/1
Average win odds: 8.72/1
Profit/Loss: -4.15pts
Return On Investment: -7.83%

We had some high points in April, including an 18/1 winner in Oscar Baby. In March we had a 25/1 winner in Son of Flicka. If we had staked these horses more heavily, the entire year would have had a different complexion, although of course it is easy to look at these things with hindsight. Prior to Son Of Flicka, we had had a rough time for quite a while with our big priced selections and frankly we have found it not as easy to stake heavily when things aren't tanking along. We know, though, that it shouldn't make any difference. In a way it's a self fulfilling prophecy - things going well - leading to feeling free to up stakes - leading to bigger profits. Things stuttering a bit - leading to slightly more cautious staking - leading to not making the most of opportunites. Our 0.25pt e/w on Son of Flicka, and 0.5pt win on Oscar Baby resulted in a profit of 16.75pts. If we had staked them as even 1pt wins, we would have had back 43pts. 2pt wins, well we would have been laughing.

Some stats on 12/1+ shots for this year:

Total Bets 31
Total Wins 2
Seconds 5 (at 12/1, 16/1, 14/1, 14/1 and and 12/1)
Thirds 3
Average Price taken: 14.97/1
Average SP 13.21/1
Results to official staking: -11.75pts (-42.07%ROI)
Results to 1pt level staking: +14pts (+45.16%ROI)

If you're interested, since proofing began on Jan 1st 2010, these are how 12/1+shots have been:

Total Bets 164
Total Wins 23
Seconds 18
Thirds 14
Average Price Taken: 14.57/1
Average SP: 12.38/1
Results to official staking: +230.25pts (+105.47%ROI)
Results to 1pt level staking: 
+192pts (+117.07%ROI) 

Historically we have got this right, and perhaps by talking about it like this it will help us remember this, so we move forward together with greater potential for profit through the rest of the year, and beyond.

Elsewhere, just to sum up our look at April, our win-rate was down on where we want it to be, although our average price of selection was pushing the 9/1 mark which is the highest in our proofed history, which would naturally push the win-rate down a little. We comfortably beat SP again for the 27th month out of 28, but our placed total at less than 30% was below average. Basically a bit of a nothing sort of month in the end, with things just ticking along, no great damage done but pretty frustrating all the same.

With our renewed nerve in place perhaps May will be explosively good. Let's hope so.

Tuesday, 1 May 2012

Border Lad

A cracking 7/1 winner from our two selections, a cracking way to start May off.

The horse in question, Border Lad in the 2.50 at Exeter, who was very well backed right down to 9/4 at the off and the result was never really in much doubt. Always going the better on his first start for Mark Gillard, he led going to two out, and although a bit untidy at the last was always going to win, which he did by five lengths. Coral kept the 8s for a few minutes, and BlueSq and Stan James (bookies we don't settle prices with) had 15/2 for a while too, so hopefully quite a few of our members got bigger than our official return of 7/1.

And a quick note about our previous post about the England job, well it appears the FA were happy to only speak to one man about the job!! Good luck to Roy Hodgson, although why Harry didn't deserve 30 minutes of their time is pretty perplexing, if only to make it easier for Roy! Hey ho that's the FA for you.