Saturday, 12 May 2012

Correction coming?

We're enjoying a good run at the moment, with eight winners from our last 40 selections - at an average advised price of 7.54/1 (odds taken ten minutes after selections posted). It means a profit of 25.8pts (+58.3% ROI).

This included today's winner from our only selection, Moretta Blanche (8/1), bravely getting up to win at Ascot after being barged about threading her way through.

We've been talking for too long now about being due a correction after a slow few months. We've hit numerous seconds, and had too many well backed sorts not perform as expected. It's all left things a bit flat. Not losing anything really, but not making the explosive gains we know can come along.

It's interesting looking at our graph of results since Jan 2010, when accompanied with a linear trends line:

So, assuming this trends line is accurate (and this is just a linear Excel trends line with the intercept at 0,0) we can see that we've had times where we've outperformed ourselves but also had times where we've under-performed.

Right now, we're under-performing in comparison to long term trends, so we feel we're due a boost upwards. We're sitting with 288.91pts of profit, when according to the trends line, we should/could in theory be sitting with just over 350pts. Well we can easily go back and find several selections over the last few months which came damn close to giving us these lost 60 or so points.On occasions, too, we have to admit that our staking has been too conservative, so we haven't had the returns from good priced winners that we should have had. This is something which we reminded ourselves just a few days ago, and already it's paid dividends.

Fundamentally, what we know is that when things go for us, they really go for us, so with any luck these next few weeks will see this correction play out!

With that in mind, it might very well be an excellent time to join us, and make the most of our variance righting itself in a positive manner.

Spaces are available at the moment, from just £17/month. Come and join the ride!

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