Thursday, 28 April 2011

Graph since Jan 1st 2010

Just thought you may be interested to see a plot of the profits since the turn of 2010. Obviously things have been going very well, although it's also important to remember that there will be spells when things don't go so well, and that's why this sort of graph can be useful. It can help remind you of the long term view we have to take.

You may have to click on the image to see it in more detail.

A quick headline look at the stats:

Bets 938
Wins 140
Strike Rate 14.93%
Average odds 7.34/1
Average win odds 7.24/1
ROI: +23.19%
Total Profit: 259.45pts

Stats and graph courtesy of The Staking Machine (highly recommended by the way).

Getting the prices

We had another day where the majority of our selections started shorter at SP than advised, and although the results weren't kind it's the prices stat which will see us through in the long term.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.20 Perth Mr Nobody 1pt 5/1 Bet365/Hills/Paddy Power (6/1 Betfred/Skybet)
3.50 Perth Premier Dane 1pt 6/1 Bet365/Lads/Hills/VC
4.50 Perth Los Nadis 1pt 9/2 Bet365/Lads/Hills
5.35 Brighton Sonny G 1pt 5/1VC/Hills/Betfred (11/2 Bluesq)

Quite a set of short priced selections by our standards, and we were very hopeful of at least one winner from the four, but it wasn't to be.

Mr Nobody started at 11/2 but weakened out of things very tamely.

Premier Dane went off at 5/1 and ran well, he just didn't have the pace to go past the front two, although he finished very strongly, losing by just over a length in the end.

Los Nadis was extremely well backed this morning, but despite trying to make the running was swallowed up pretty easily in the end, after going off at 7/2.

Sonny G also started at 7/2 but despite leading and seemingly going well for a while he couldn't keep it up and was well beaten in the end.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Mr Nobody, PU/12, 5/1 --- 11/2
Premier Dane, 3rd/10, 6/1 --- 5/1
Los Nadis, 5th/9, 9/2 --- 7/2
Sonny G, 7th/10, 5/1 --- 7/2

On to tomorrow!

Wednesday, 27 April 2011

Another profitable day

Another good day today with one winner from our three selections, with Hail Promenader getting up on the line to land a nice touch at Pontefract.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.30 Pontefract Hail Promenader 1pt 5/1 Boylesports/Betfred
5.40 Newcastle Ra Junior 1pt 11/2 VC 5/1 Hills/Other BOG
7.40 Newcastle Classic Contours 1pt 10/1 Bet365/VC

Hail Promenader was dropping back in trip today, and was well backed to make the most of his tumbling handicap mark to record a thrilling win in a photo, just getting up on the line to pip long time leader Cono Zur. He started at 10/3. Barry Hills' 5yo was matched in running at an incredible 790, which seems amazing if you watch the race as he was always there or thereabouts, albeit it looked as if the winner had flown entering the final furlong.

No such drama with Ra Junior, who was backed into 9/2 after opening on course at 6/1. It was never happening though, and he was well beaten with surely a lot more expected.

Classic Contours went off at 13/2 and tried to win from the front, but didn't have the toe to finish the job in the end, finishing 5th.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Hail Promenader, 1st/8, 5/1 --- 10/3
Ra Junior, 9th/10, 11/2 --- 9/2
Classic Contours, 5th/9, 10/1 --- 13/2

So all in all a 3pt profit on the day, nothing too explosive, but it's always nice to keep things ticking along!

Tuesday, 26 April 2011

Catch Up

It's been a fairly quiet last few days for us, considering the amount of racing that's been on, and it's not been too kind to us, with a loss of 7.5pts since our last update.

Nothing too serious though, and a nice winner tonight has hopefully put things back on an upward projection as we look to finish April strongly.

Let's start with Saturday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.20 Hay Crosby Jemma 1pt 8-1 B365, 7s other BOG
3.30 Hay Kealshore Boy 1pt 9-2 B365, VC, Betfred
3.55 Carl Leac An Scail 1pt 7-1 W Hill

A very disappointing set of performances, with Crosby Jemma in particular never in it. Kealshore Boy jumped very poorly and ended lame in the end and could be winning on another day, while Leac An Scail showed up for around half the race but then faded out of it.

On Easter Sunday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.05 Muss Apache Ridge 2pt 20-1 P Power, Lads, W Hill

With a 5furlong handicap it's always likely of course that there'll be the odd hard luck story, and while we wouldn't like to claim that Apache Ridge was likely to win, he certainly wasn't helped by being checked in running twice, once severely, just as he was making his move. Interesting that neither the RP write up ("always towards rear"), nor the Sporting Life write up ("chased leaders, under pressure halfway, soon lost place" deemed to give it a mention. Perhaps one to look out for at a decent price next time.

On to Bank Holiday Monday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.50 Hunt Fit to Drive 2pts 10-1 B365, PP, Betfred
3.25 Hunt Lady Florence 1pt 5-1 W Hill, VC Bet, Betfred
3.45 Redcar Chambers 2pt 12-1 W Hill, Betfred

The 12/1 about Fit to Drive we put up didn't last very long so we'll mark him down as a 10/1 selection. Despite continuing to be supported into 8/1 he ran quite poorly, fading out of things as things began to get serious.

Lady Florence was supported into 5/2 and tried to make all, but couldn't, dropping through the field when headed.

Chambers ran quite well for a long time but lost the lead with around a furlong to go and then weakened.

And then on to today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.40 Yarmouth Dazzling Valentine 1pt 9/2 Lads/VC/Boylesport
6.10 Sedgefield Morning Time 2pt 12/1 Bet365/Boylesports/VC/Paddy Power
7.15 Sedgefield Simply Smashing 1pt 5/1 Hills/Lads/Betfred/VC

Dazzling Valentine was caught up on the rail but possibly didn't stay the 10furlong trip at Yarmouth, finishing last of the six runners in the end, after being backed into 7/2.

Morning Time was very well backed into 7/1, and things looked promising for a while, particularly with a couple of fences left to jump, but things didn't work out and he ended up 6th.

And so it was with Simply Smashing, who ironically was our first selection to drift to SP since Saturday, and was the one that won. A really gutsy front running effort, despite continually jumping right the 11yo powered home to win the "Durham National" by a fairly wide margin. Without the jumping errors he would have won by a country mile, a great performance, and returning at 11/2 meant that we got an extra 0.5pts in our pockets.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday April 23rd:

Crosby Jemma, PU/8, 8/1 --- 13/2
Kealshore Boy, PU/7, 9/2 --- 9/2
Leac An Scale, 6th/8, 7/1 --- 6/1

Sunday April 24th:

Apache Ridge, 8th/11, 20/1 --- 16/1

Monday April 25th:

Fit to Drive, 5th/6, 10/1 --- 8/1
Lady Florence, 5th/7, 5/1 --- 5/2
Chambers 8th/13, 12/1 --- 12/1

Tuesday April 26th:

Dazzling Valentune, 6th/6 9/2 --- 7/2
Morning Time, 6th/11, 12/1 --- 7/1
Simply Smashing, 1st/8, 5/1 --- 11/2

So not a brilliant few days, but no great disaster either, and we look forward to building on Simply Smashing's result before the month is out to further add to April's profits.

Thursday, 21 April 2011

100% strike rate!

A quiet day for us today with just the one selection, but a very easy winner in the shape of Ben Cee Pee M at Ludlow, to keep things ticking along very nicely ahead of the Easter weekend.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.50 Ludlow Ben Cee Pee M 1pt W Hill 5-1. B365 9-2

Oliver Sherwood's 6yo was nicely backed right into 5/2 at the off, and put in a cracking performance. Despite being a bit short of room at times and making one or two minor errors, he took things up approaching the final fence and eased clear to win very comfortably. The only downside was a 15p R4 deduction with Perkin Warbeck being declared a non runner earlier in the day. I suppose you never know, but the way the selection won I think it unlikely we'd have lost out had he stood his chance. It means 4.25pts profit on the day.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Ben Cee Pee M, 1st/7, 5/1 --- 5/2

So with things tanking along we pause for Good Friday, and then we resume the battle on Saturday. It goes without saying really, but if you join the service tonight or tomorrow, we'll naturally start the subscription on Saturday.

Here are the details:

Wednesday, 20 April 2011

Steady couple of days

Things have settled down a bit since Monday when we had that terrific day of four winners from our six selections.

Yesterday wasn't great, five points lost from the four selections - although we got a decent performance from our 16/1 shot. Today much better, two put up, one of them winning to keep things ticking along nicely.

Let's start with yesterday, we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.40 Ponte Mojolika 1pt 5-1 W Hill, Betfred, P Power
4.40 Ponte Fibs and Flannel 1pt 6-1 B365, Betfred (some 13-2 about, non BOG)
5.10 Ponte Global 2pts 16-1 B365, Betfred
6.00 Bath Morning Chief 1pt 5-1 B365
7.30 Bath Kyllachy Storm 1pt 7-1 B365

Mojolika sweated up a bit before the off which probably didn't help and after going off at 5/1 just over three lengths in the end after being a bit one paced in the closing stages.

Fibs and Flannel was a non runner.

Then came Global, who, after going off at 14/1, led for a large part of the contest and was backed into around 2.5 in running on Betfair. Just as we began thinking we might be about to celebrate our next big winner, the lights went out just over a furlong from home and he was swallowed up by the pack, and then he rapidly faded to be very well beaten in the end.

Morning Chief opened on course at 7/2 but almost doubled in price just before the off and ended up going off at 6/1. He was headed about three furlongs from home and finished a fair bit behind.

We initially advised Kyllachy Storm at 8/1 but the price didn't last so we'll put him down as a 7/1 selection. In the end he went off at 11/2, and was another to try to make all for us. He lost the lead at around the furlong marker and weakened out of things close to home.

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.00 Epsom Best Trip 1pt 9-1 W Hill, Boyle
2.35 Epsom Sunny Game 1pt 4-1 general BOG
4.05 Heref Reland 1pt 9-1 Boyle, 8s W Hill, Betfred

Best Trip raced prominently in the 2.00, tanking along in the early stages but couldn't quite go with the principles and ended up finishing fifth, after going off at 10/1 after opening on course at 7/1.

Then came the very well supported Sunny Game over the Derby distance. Always travelling really strongly, he readily picked them off and won comfortably to get us back on the winning trail, after going off at 3/1.

Reland was a non-runner.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Tuesday 19th April 2011

Mojolika, 4th/6, 5/1 --- 5/1
Fibs and Flannel NR
Global, 8th/11, 16/1 --- 14/1
Morning Chief, 4th/5, 5/1 --- 6/1
Kyllachy Storm, 6th/11, 7/1 --- 11/2

Wednesday 20th April 2011

Best Trip, 5th/14, 9/1 --- 10/1
Sunny Game, 1st/13, 4/1 --- 3/1
Reland NR

It's been a great few days with April nicely in profit by 19.5pts (ROI +32.5%), hopefully we can keep things ticking along tomorrow before a nice day off on Friday - and then we'll all be set for an explosive Easter Bank Holiday weekend!

Tuesday, 19 April 2011

Four timer not landed

Just a quick one to say we didn't land the fourth winner in a row, in fact we didn't have a return from any of our four which ran today. It's a fickle game!

Probably the best performance came from our 2pt win selection at 16/1, Global, who traded at around 6/4 with just over around a furlong and a half left to race as he led and tried to kick for home, but he was soon swallowed up by the pack and finished well back in the end.

Cheeres for now, full update tomorrow.

Monday, 18 April 2011

Four Winners from Six Selections!!

A fantastic day today, with four winners from our six selections, at 6/1, 7/1, 9/2 and 7/1, which pushes 2011 into another new high (+141.1pts / +54.69%ROI). Lovely!!

On 11th April, under the heading "Ready for a bank boost", we wrote how we expected at least six winners from our next 41 selections, given what had gone on the previous 59 bets. Of course we would never be so daft as to be certain that was going to be the case, but if you have a big enough range of statistics and figures to fall back on, it is somewhat possible to predict what should happen in the future.

So here we are, in fact 29 selections later, and we already have our six winners, with four of them coming today.

Ours is a method built on cold hard statistics and figures, not emotions and sentiment. We believe this makes us ruthless in our long term pursuit of profits and perhaps why it easier for us to keep going in the face of whatever happens before.

Anyway getting a bit distracted, let's have a quick look at what happened.

We advised:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.20 Red Middleton Flyer 1pt 13-2 W Hill, VC, Boyle
3.10 Tow Haarth Sovereign 1pt 6-1 W Hill, VC, Betfred
3.40 Tow Or Sing About 1pt 13-2 VC, 6-1 W Hill, P Power, Betfred
4.20 Red Dr Parkes 1pt 7-1 general BOG
4.40 Tow Beauchamp Viking 1pt 9-2 W Hill, P Power
5.25 Red Easy Terms 1pt 7-1 Boyle, Betfred, VC

There was good value had throughout with every single selection starting shorter than backed at. Over time that's the stat above all that we're really looking for.

We started at Redcar, with the nicely backed 2yo maiden Middleton Flyer, who went off at 9/2. She drifted right across the track which didn't help and stayed on nicely after being a touch outpaced at halfway, going down by just over a length in the end.

Then came Haarth Sovereign who led for most of the race, lost the lead before the last, but rallied really well to win by more than two lengths, after starting at 9/2.

Or Sing About went off at 9/2 and was prominent throughout but possibly paid for those exertions and faded close to home, coming fifth in the end.

Then came our run of three winners in a row, starting with Dr Parkes who quickened really nicely under strong pressure to land another nice touch, going off at 11/2.

Back to Towcester next and Beauchamp Viking was a determined winner of the 4.40, after going off at 3/1. It was a gutsy battling performance back at the only track he's won at, and he got up by a neck.

Already it was a great day, and could Easy Terms cap things off? Absolutely she could, getting off the mark for the first time in 14 attempts. She took it up three furlongs from home and never looked back, winning comfortably by more than two lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Middleton Flyer, 3rd/10, 13/2 --- 9/2
Haarth Sovereign, 1st/11, 6/1 --- 9/2
Or Sing About, 5th/9, 13/2 --- 9/2
Dr Parkes, 1st/11, 7/1 --- 11/2
Beauchamp Viking, 1st/6, 9/2 --- 3/1
Easy Terms, 1st/7, 7/1 --- 9/2

While we will always advise backing our selections as win singles, it's days like today which it's nice to hear how some made decent money from doing multiples. One had a 10p e/w lucky 31 on the final five picks returning £285 and another a 25p EW Heinz paying £888! All good stuff but whether bets like those are sensible in the long term we're not entirely sure..!

So can we make it four winners in a row from our first selection tomorrow, that would be quite something..! Let's hope so.

Sunday, 17 April 2011

Injuries cap a poor day

Not a good day with five points lost and injuries to two of our jockeys.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.00 Wetherby Archies Wish 1pt 6/1 Bet365/VC/Boylesports
4.10 Wetherby Raining Horse 1pt 5/1 Bet365/Hills
4.40 Wetherby Railway Park 1pt 15/2 VC/Boylesports
4.40 Wetherby Solway Dornal 2pt 16/1 Bet365 (some 20/1 may be possible at Stan James)

Archies Wish ran poorly, just never jumping with any fluidity, despite being backed right into 7/2.

Harry Haynes was bumped off Raining Horse at the second fence and picked up a nasty concussion for his troubles. It was his injury which led to the bypassed fence drama on the next circuit. He's been stepped down for 7 days, obviously we wish him all the best.

Paul Gallagher had a really awful day, getting a ten day ban for making the unfortunate mistake in the 4.10, and then falling at the first in the next with Railway Park, picking up neck and shoulder injuries apparently. Not good and we wish him the best too.

Solway Dornal ran reasonably but didn't have much of an answer when things got serious, though stayed on into 4th.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Archies Wish, 6th/6, 6/1 --- 7/2
Raining Horse, UR/6, 5/1 --- 5/1
Railway Park, F/12, 15/2 --- 7/2
Solway Dornal, 4th/12, 16/1 --- 12/1

There've been quite a few serious injuries to jockeys in the course of the last week or so. We can all have a moan at times if we think things haven't gone to plan, but there's no question they are a terrifically brave bunch, and we owe them a lot.

Saturday, 16 April 2011

Getting the prices but no rewards

A frustrating couple of days, good value had in many cases, but no winner.

Let's start yesterday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.55 Newb Striking Spirit 1pt 8-1 Lads, 7-1 W Hill, Bet365, Betfred
7.40 Brighton Alfraamsey 1pt 6-1 Bet365, 11-2 W Hill, P Power

Striking Spirit went off a well supported 11/2 but after looking promising for the first couple of furlongs, it soon was apparent things weren't happening, and Adrian Nicholls eased right off. Whether it was the draw or something amiss clearly more was expected.

Alfraamsey started at 9/2, but put in a very laboured performance.

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.35 Newb Red Courtier 2pts 16-1 Lads, B365
2.50 Ayr Hunterview 1pt 5-1 general BOG
4.00 Ayr Los Nadis 1pt 9-1 general BOG
4.15 Newb Reflect 2pts 12-1 W Hill, Betfred 10s other BOG

Red Courtier was supported into 12/1 and ran pretty well, showing up promisingly for a good while, but was a bit one paced when it mattered.

Hunterview started at 5/1 in the Scottish Champion Hurdle but was in trouble a good way from home.

Los Nadis was backed down to 11/2 and led for much of the way, and for a moment looked to possibly have them at it when he was asked to go for home, but he couldn't quicken clear and was picked off in the end, finishing a well beaten fourth.

Then came another we got good value with, our second 2pt pick of the day, Reflect, going off at 6/1. He ran well, smoothly travelling for a good while just off the leaders, but he didn't have the pace in the closing stages, and did well to get third.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised ---- SP):

Friday 15th April 2011

Striking Spirit, 12th/12, 8/1 --- 11/2
Alfraamsey, 7th/8, 6/1 --- 9/2

Saturday 16th April 2011

Red Courtier, 7th/15, 16/1 --- 12/1
Hunterview, 6th/9, 5/1 --- 5/1
Los Nadis, 4th/8, 9/1 --- 11/2
Reflect, 3rd/14, 12/1 --- 6/1

It goes without saying that over time backing 6/1 and 11/2 shots at 12/1 and 9/1 respectively, and so on, will reap the dividends, hopefully we'll get some rewards tomorrow!

Thursday, 14 April 2011

Exploding into profit

A few days ago we talked about how things were likely to pick up, as the law of betting variance swings back in our favour, and today it did in no uncertain terms with a superb 2pt win from the veteran 16/1 shot Grantson.

We put up:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.25 Nkt Strategic Bid 1 pt 5-1 B365, VCBet
3.10 Bev Granston 2pt 16-1 Lads, B365, VC
6.55 Sedgfield Snake Rave 1pt 5/1 Hills/Boylesports/Paddy Power

Strategic Bid was very well backed but was a non runner.

Then came Granston, who was dropping back into a class 4 contest for the first time since March 2009, and the 10yo kept up his excellent record first time out with a really taking victory. He looked a tiny bit awkward early on but soon found his stride sitting just off the leaders. For a moment it looked like he may be a bit short of room, but he soon got in the clear and powered ahead in the final furlong to win by 1 1/2 lengths, a cracking result and 32pts of profit.

Then we looked forward to Snake Rave's run at Sedgefield, who was backed into 4/1, but sadly there was no cherry on top of the icing with a pretty flat performance.

Still, April bounces into a very tidy profit as we hit a new high for the year - +131.6pts (+55.06%ROI)).

Confirmation of results with prices (advised - SP):

Strategic Bid NR
Granstone, 1st/10, 16/1 --- 16/1
Snake Rave, 5th/6, 5/1 --- 4/1

Roll on tomorrow!

Great Grantson! April soars into profit

Will update properly a bit later but just wanted to say that we had a fantastic 31pts of profit today, thanks to a superb victory by Grantson in the 3.10 at Beverley, advised as a 2pt win single at 16/1.

Our other selection this evening couldn't follow up, but still a brilliant day, and it means April is now well into profit.

It means we're keeping up the form shown which left us top of the last three month table (we're second at 6 and 12 months).

And still you can join from just £13.33 a month!

Until later


Wednesday, 13 April 2011

Return to profit

It was a busy afternoon with five selections and after a frustrating first part of the day, it was nice to see Irish Boy sprint clear in the 4.55 at Catterick to secure a profit on the day, at an SP of 7/1.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.45 Chelt Toby Jug 1pt 5-1 Betfred, Boyle. 9-2 B365
3.10 Catt Twennyshortkid 1pt 6-1 VCBet, Boyle
3.20 Chelt Secret Dancer 1pt 8-1 Lads, VCBet
3.55 Chelt Copper Bleu 1pt 6-1 Betfred, 11-2 Lads, VCBet
4.55 Catt Irish Boy 1pt 5-1 Tote, Boyle

In the main we had good performances, and it was ironic to see the only drifter on the day win.

In the 2.45 at Cheltenham, Toby Jug went off a well backed 3/1, but fell when just behind the leaders at the 13th fence.

Twennyshortkid was supported all the way into 7/2 on course, and came with what for a moment looked like a winning run about two out, but he couldn't go with the victor, Trading, who did well from the front, and in the end came third, just missing out on second.

Secret Dancer was another to be well backed, going off at 9/2. He ran very well for a long time but was a bit tapped for toe a little way from home. He was staying on again when fluffing the last fence but still managed to get up for third.

Copper Bleu went off at 4/1 but jumped poorly and as soon as he started to struggle a bit Richard Johnson gave up on him.

Then came the winner, Irish Boy finishing with a terrific late burst to win going away. We initially advised 11/2 about the selection but the price went as the email went out, so we put up 5/1 instead with a couple of firms, one of them Totesport, the other Boylesports.

As Totesport don't offer best odds guaranteed, we would like to think that our subscribers would have used Boylesports if they could - however we obviously can't be sure everyone did, so it's only fair that we mark him up here as a 5/1 winner for us, therefore a 1pt profit on the day rather than 3pts given BOG paid at 7/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Toby Jug, F/5, 5/1 --- 3/1
Twennyshortkid, 3rd/10, 6/1 --- 7/2
Secret Dancer, 3rd/10, 8/1 --- 9/2
Copper Bleu, 5th/5, 6/1 --- 4/1
Irish Boy, 1st/7, 5/1 --- 7/1

Nice to get that winning feeling back and we'll be very much looking to follow up tomorrow.

Tuesday, 12 April 2011

Bank boost delayed

After a pretty bleak day punting wise for us, it's lovely to that Peter Toole's condition has improved somewhat tonight. Naturally we wish him all the very best for a full recovery.

On to our look at the last couple of days - and at least we got decent enough value with a couple today but we had three pretty poor performances, and yesterday wasn't a lot better.

Let's start there.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.30 Hexham Abragante 1pt 6-1 B365, Betfred
4.50 Plumpton Drawback 1pt 9-1 W Hill. B365, VC Bet (10-1 S James, not BOG)
6.45 F Las Gus Macrae 1pt 7-1 Betfred, 13-2 Lads

Abragante was bang there two out, but didn't have enough in the tank and finished third beaten six lengths, after starting at 7/1.

Drawback went off at 8s and was struggling early on and was well beaten.

Gus Macrae was in the race for a good while on his return to hurdles, after drifting to 8s at the off, but didn't have any sort of finishing kick and was beaten around seven lengths.

On to today, we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
5.05 Folk Frolic Along 1pt W Hill 11-2, 5-1 B365, Betfred
6.00 Towce Global Flyer 1pt W Hill 13-2
6.15 Taun Run for Moor 1pt 11-2 W Hill, B365

Frolic Along was nicely supported for her maiden this morning but was totally friendless as the day wore on, she drifted right out to 8/1 and ran accordingly, never in it.

At least we got the price with our last couple of the day, starting with Global Flyer, who went off at 100/30. Despite the good deal of confidence around Caroline Bailey's 7yo, and a reasonable first chunk of the race, he started to struggle three out and was never going to win from that point onwards, although he did seem to stay on again at the end, almost grabbing second.

Run For Moor went off at 9/2 and was a well beaten third.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 11th April 2011

Abragante, 3rd/11, 6/1 --- 7/1
Drawback, 6th/8, 9/1 --- 8/1
Gus Macrae, 4th/5, 7/1 --- 8/1

Tuesday 12th April 2011

Frolic Along, 4th/5, 13/2 --- 8/1
Global Flyer, 3rd/5, 13/2 --- 100/30
Run For Moor, 3rd/6, 11/2 --- 9/2

Monday, 11 April 2011

Ready for a bank boost

Since January 1st 2010, our win strike rate has been exactly 14.64%. That's 130 winners from 888 selections. (+226.45pts / +21.36%ROI)

Something we keep banging on about when backing win-only with big prices is the need to consider things in the long term.

It's particularly important when short term runs prove frustrating, like in this present period.

At the moment, in fact since the first day of the Cheltenham Festival this year, we are on a run of 4 wins from 59 selections (6.78% strike rate).

That's not pretty, but we have found over the last few years that it is unusual to have a block of 100 selections which doesn't have at least 10 winners.

This means that, in pure statistical terms, we would expect things to pick up soon, with at least six wins from our next 41 selections (strike rate 14.63%).

Today we had three selections, with one of them finishing third and the others unplaced. We'll report properly on the results tomorrow night, after which perhaps that bank boost will have begun!

Sunday, 10 April 2011

Evening racing eve

A couple of unplaced efforts today, although our second selection traded at around 1/5 in running before making a howler of the final fence and not recovering.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.45 Ascot Soulard 1pt 9/1 Bet365/Hills/VC
4.55 Ascot Georgian King 1pt 9/1 Bet365/Hills

Soulard started at 8/1 and, as is his way, raced prominently, trying to make all. Things looked promising for quite a while, but eventually he was picked off by the closing pack, and then was quite badly hampered by a falling horse to really finish him off.

Georgian King ran a cracker and would quite possibly have won had he not lost all momentum when clattering the last when holding the lead (trading close to 1.20 in running). Not to be though, we'll dust ourselves down and move on.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Soulard, 7th/8, 9/1 --- 8/1
Georgian King, 4th/9, 9/1 --- 9/1

April's proving a frustrating month so far, but our position can be very easily recovered.

With evening racing kicking off in earnest tomorrow, the number of meetings is about to ramp up, so the number of opportunities should grow. Naturally we'll stay disciplined but we fully expect our daily number of selections to be on the rise. Will be a fascinating next few months and we can't wait to get stuck in.

Saturday, 9 April 2011

Away from the National..

April's not got going for us yet, we've had a few reasonable performances, three seconds and just the one winner from our 18 selections. It happens, like we always say, and things will spin around before too long.

Today our selections were away from the drama of Aintree.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.25 Bangor Credit Crunched 1pt 6/1 Bet365/VC/Paddy Power/Betfred
3.05 Bangor Noun De La Thinte 1pt 8/1 VC/Betfred (15/2 Hills)
3.50 Thirsk General Duke's 2pt 12/1 Boylesports (11/1 Bet365/Hills/Lads)

Credit Crunched was pulled out of his Bangor contest after being backed into 4/1 in most places.

Noun De La Thinte drifted on course to 9/1 at SP. She raced prominently but couldn't stay with them at the business end and was disappointing

General Duke's, making his handicap debut, would have provided a fantastic return given the bog in play with Kevin Ryan's four year old drifting to 16/1 at the off, although obviously that wasn't the greatest sign. He didn't get the easiest passages and was a fair way behind approaching the last couple of furlongs, but he stayed on nicely, just missing out on third.

Confirmation of results (advised --- SP):

Credit Crunched NR
Noun De La Thinte, 8th/9, 8/1 --- 9/1
General Duke's, 5th/14, 12/1 --- 16/1

We've quite a busy Sunday to look forward to tomorrow, with some interesting looking fields. We'll be doing our best to get back on that winning trail!

By the way, without wishing to blow our own trumpet necessarily, we'd like to point out our record in the updated tipster leagues!

We're really chuffed, that's some going against 26 other highly competitive services, the vast majority charging much more than we do!

Friday, 8 April 2011

Poor couple of days

It's been a below-par couple of days, there's no getting away from it. It happens though and things will pick up soon I'm sure!

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.30 Hereford Rathconrath 1pt 10-1 Boyle, Betfred, 9-1 B365
5.00 Ripon Boy The Bell 1pt 9-1 W Hill, Boyle

Rathconrath drifted to 14s at the off, not the idea, and then ran poorly, ending pulled up.

Boy The Bell was very nicely backed into 11/2 at SP which is more like it, and then ran well. He was a tad outpaced early on but really got motoring into the final furlong to finish a fast finishing fourth. Just got going a tad too late.

Then on to today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.30 Font Home 1pt 8-1 W Hill, VCBet
5.35 Font The Red Laird 1pt 11-2 W Hill, B Square, 5s other BOG firms
6.25 Newc Funky Munky 1pt 9-1 W HIll

When Home quickened clear three out it looked like he had a decent chance, but he couldn't keep it going and ended up getting hauled in to finish out of the frame in the end in fourth, after starting at 15/2.

The Red Laird was a non-runner.

Funky Munky was most disappointing, being shoved along all too early and ending up very well beaten, after starting at 12/1

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Thursday April 7th

Rathconrath, PU/17, 10/1 --- 14/1
Boy The Bell, 4th/12, 9/1 --- 11/2

Friday April 8th

Home, 4th/11, 8/1 --- 15/2
The Red Laird NR
Funky Munky, 11th/13 9/1 --- 12/1

So it's National day tomorrow - has the makings of a classic this year, hope it's a profitable one for you!

Wednesday, 6 April 2011

Just missed

A good effort from our one selection today, the gutsy filly Verrazano, but she was just beaten into second.

We advised:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.40 Bev Verrazano 1Pt 6-1 Boyle, 11-2 B365, W Hill, Betfred

Kevin Ryan's three year old continued to be backed into 4/1 at SP, and did her very best, breaking well, leading until well into the final furlong before she was headed, but then she battled back and only just failed in a driving finish. She was well clear of third, on her first start on turf and connections must have been pleased with what she gave them, just a shame there was one slightly too good.

Confirmation or result with prices (advised --- SP):

Verrazano, 2nd/13, 6/1 --- 4/1

Tuesday, 5 April 2011

Off and running for the month

We had our first winner for April this afternoon, a really comfortable success at Exeter. The month is still 5pts down so far, but always nice to get that first under the belt and hopefully we'll push on from here.

Let's start yesterday where we had a couple of selections:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30 Kelso Livvy Inn 1pt 6/1 Lads/Hills
5.20 Folkestone Hereditary 1pt 10/1 Bet365/Hills/VC

Livvy Inn was really well backed at Kelso, touching 3/1 and 7/2 before eventually going off at 4/1. Unfortunately he couldn't go with them when the pace quickened and was a well beaten 7th in the end.

At Folkestone, Hereditary was checked in running a couple of times, before really being very badly hampered so much so that the it seemed for a second the jock may topple off. He was unlikely to win at that stage though it has to be said, after starting at 16/1.

Then on to today and a whole lot better. We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.00 Exeter Sir Kezbaah 1pt 5-1 B365, W Hill, P Power
3.40 Pontefract King in Waiting 1pt 8-1 Boyle, 15-2 W Hill

Sir Kezbah seemed to be nicely supported right up to the off at Exeter, though was returned at 5/1. We actually had one of the team at Exeter today who spoke to a bookie on course about the SP being 5/1 who was a bit surprised to say the least. Still, no complaints here of course as it meant no R4 to worry about with Connak made a non-runner (generally a 9/1 chance), thanks to b.o.g.

As for the race Jeremy Scott's 7yo made light work of his rivals, easing to the front and quickening clear to win in incredibly convincing fashion.

King In Waiting drifted on course to 10/1, after being nicely backed this morning. Interestingly on course the support came for the other David O'Meara runner, Descaro. Sadly it was the late money which proved most accurate in this case, with Descaro staying on to win by 3/4 length with King In Waiting fading out of things in the last couple of furlongs.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 4th April 2011

Livvy Inn, 7th/15, 6/1 --- 4/1
Hereditary, 8th/10, 10/1 --- 16/1

Tuesday 5th April 2011

Sir Kesbaah, 1st/10, 5/1 --- 5/1
King In Waiting, 10th/15, 8/1 --- 10/1

So we're off the mark for April, some really interesting racing ahead in the next few days of course and let's hope we can follow it up with another good winner or two!

Sunday, 3 April 2011

No selections today

Brief update tonight, as we had no selections today. We're looking forward to a pretty busy week ahead, before things really ramp up a week tomorrow when the evening turf meetings get underway. Here's to a good week ahead.

Saturday, 2 April 2011

Them's the breaks!

We've had a poor start to April, with two second placed finishes to our name from our seven picks.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Musselburgh Mandurah 1pt 7/1 Hills/Betfred
3.50 Musselburgh Eilean Mor 1pt 13/2 Coral 6/1 Skybet/Stan James
4.00 Newcastle Short Supply 1pt 8/1 Bet365/Betfred
5.20 Musselburgh Classic Descent 1pt 12/1 Boylesports/Betfred 11/1 Paddy Power

Only one of these ran with much credit.

Mandurah started at 8/1 but just never got going. If he gets back to anything like his best with Dandy Nicholls he's going to win in a canter one of these days, but perhaps that's a big if.

Eilean Mor put in a really gutsy effort. Leading for much of the way it looked like he'd be swamped by the pack, but only one went past him as he battled on well into second, after going off at 8/1 at SP.

Short Supply went on an almighty drift pre-off, right out to 20/1 at SP and just never travelled a yard, while Classic Descent didn't do a whole lot better, starting at 12/1, he was held up out the back and just never got in it.

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.25 Uttoxeter Terra Bleu 1pt 5/1 Bet365/VC/Paddy Power (9/2 others look for BOG)
3.50 Chepstow Just Unique 1pt 11/1 Bet365 (12/1
4.25 Chepstow Maucaillou 1pt 12/1 Totesport/Bluesq (11/1 Hills)
5.45 Uttoxeter Our Jim 1pt 9/1 Lads/ PP

Terra Bleu was backed as if defeat was out of the question this morning on his handicap debut, but unfortunately was declared a non-runner at about 12.30. Interesting one to watch out for.

Just Unique was supported into 7/1 at the off, but after a mistake at the second fence was just never in it.

Maucaillou started his contest about 20 lengths behind the field in the 4.25, and the writing was on the wall almost immediately, even though in fairness he has raced well being held up before.

Our Jim, who started at 5/1, was the one that really got away, continually making mistakes, reaching for his fences, and at times jumping left, it is to his eternal credit he was still bang there at the last. One more slight error at that one made his job all the more difficult but he still rallied and was closing as the post came. If he had jumped just a couple of his fences better than he did, I think we'd be sitting with a 3pt profit for April rather than being 7pts down.

Never mind, them's the breaks sometimes, and we'll get it back soon I'm sure!

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday April 1st 2011

Mandurah, 11th/14, 7/1 --- 8/1
Eilean Mor, 2nd/10, 13/2 --- 8/1
Short Supply, PU/15, 8/1 --- 20/1
Classic Descent, 8th/12, 12/1 --- 12/1

Saturday April 2nd 2011

Terra Bleu NR
Just Unique, PU/14, 11/1 --- 7/1
Maucaillour, 14th/15, 12/1 --- 14/1
Our Jim, 2nd/9, 9/1 --- 5/1