Monday, 30 January 2012

Good Monday

A good Monday to follow our good Saturday, with a comfortable winner today. We almost followed up 25 minutes later, but it wasn't quite to be.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.20 Ayr Overlady 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2Bet365&others 7/1 Totesport/Boyles&others 15/2 Coral/Stan James
2.45 Plumpton Tarquinius 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Boyles/SportingBet

Overlady was making her first since last March and Stuart Coltherd did a fantastic job to get her ready to strike on her reappearance. She was always travelling well and when she took it up we saw the happy sight of her still going nicely as more and more began to struggle in behind. The eventual runner up, Rossini's Dancer, kept trying to get to her, but Overlady always had more up her sleeve, and one more good jump at the last finished the job, and she went on to win by eight lengths. Very nice!

Then came Tarquinius who did his best to follow up for us, always up there and he did his level best to close on the bottom-weight winner, with a slight mistake at the second last not helping his chances. He kept on all the way to the line, but the victor was always pulling out just enough to repel his challenge by less than two lengths, after Charlie Mann's 9yo started at 9/2.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Overlady, 1st/10, 13/2 --- 15/2
Tarquinius, 2nd/9, 5/1 --- 9/2

A good run at the moment, with three winners from our last six selections, let's hope we can have another good day tomorrow as January draws to a close!

Sunday, 29 January 2012

Weekend Update

We did have a selection today, running at Sedgefield, but despite some earlier positive vibes coming from the course racing was unfortunately abandoned.

Yesterday was altogether brighter with two winners from our four selections.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.40 Uttoxeter Sandynow 1pt 4/1 generally
3.55 Doncaster De Boitron 2pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Bet365&others
4.15 Cheltenham Module 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Coral/VC&others

Advised Early:

2.20 Doncaster Tobago Bay 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 14/1 Lads/Totesport/Betfred

First up Tobago Bay went off at 10/1 and raced prominently for a while before disappointingly fading from three out.

Sandynow was supported into 3/1 and ran out a gutsy winner, by more than two lengths, although we were helped by a couple of mistakes made by the eventual runnner-up in the closing stages.

Next up was De Boitron who was held up, and just could never get competitive after starting at 12/1.

And then came Module, who put in a taking performance to win the last at Cheltenham, on his British debut for Tom George. Very well backed earlier in the day, he started a still pretty well supported 6/1 and won comfortably by more than three lengths. Could be an interesting contender in his chosen engagement come March..

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Tobago Bay, 7th/9, 14/1 --- 10/1
Sandynow, 1st/9, 4/1 --- 3/1
De Boitron, 8th/10, 12/1 --- 12/1
Module, 1st/14, 5/1 --- 6/1

Talking of the Festival, wasn't Hurricane Fly fantastic today, just six weeks to go!

Saturday, 28 January 2012

Good Saturday

Apologies, no time for a proper update tonight but just to say that we had a good Saturday, with two winners from our four selections, and a nice six points of profit.

So far in 2012 we've had 59 selections, with 9 winners, 15 seconds and 8 thirds (when third registers as a placed). That's a placed strike rate of 54.24%, which is on pace for our highest tally since proofing began on January 1st 2010 ( for month by month results). That's at an average price of 6.89/1 for each placed selection.

The high placed strike rate is pleasing of course with so many selections running well, but also there's certainly a feeling of what might have been.

Our highest placed percentages by month so far (with corresponding profits) are:

April 2010 - 47.5% (15 winners, 12 seconds, 11 thirds) - profit + 31.6pts
May 2011 - 45.88% (14, 12, 13) - profit +74pts
August 2010 - 45.45% (17, 9, 14) - profit +62.25pts

So for us, at present, to be showing negative returns for January so far is pretty frustrating, but of course just one of those things, a bit of a freak which will come along every now and then.

Historically of all our placed efforts, 38.4% win - this is from a proofed sample of 1328 bets, to Dec 31st 2012. This month we have seen 28.1% of our placed efforts win, and it's in these little quirks that financial returns are hit.

We have three more days (assuming raceable weather conditions) to pull that winning percentage up, and turn our month around to profit that us win-only backers think we deserve, let's see if it can be done!

Friday, 27 January 2012

Rough week!

This has been a rough week, no getting away from it! The usual collection of second placed finishes, which has been a theme this month, but also some really disappointing performances as well.

Today we had four selections:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.40 Huntingdon Raifteiri 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Hills/PP&others 14/1 Lads/Skybet&others
2.00 Fontwell Sam Hall 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Coral 12/1 Lads
2.10 Huntingdon Old Way 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Hills/Bet365
3.30 Fontwell Amirico 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Hills/Lads/Bet365&others

After being well backed this morning Raifteiri went off at 9/1 and dropped away a long way from home.

Sam Hall was pretty weak on course, although was supported again into 10/1 before the off, but never looked like getting involved.

Old Way went off at 5/1 and ran ok for a while, but soon dropped away at the business end.

So we were left with Amirico (SP 5/1) to see if the day could be spun around into profit, and despite hitting a flat spot he stayed on strongly to finish second, our 15th of the month (that's the record broken!), although he was never going to get the well-handicapped winner.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Raifteiri, PU/8, 12/1 --- 9/1
Sam Hall, PU/11, 10/1 --- 10/1
Old Way, 8th/9, 11/2 --- 5/1
Amirico, 2nd/7, 6/1 --- 5/1

A couple of meetings tomorrow have inspections in the morning, fingers crossed all will be ok and we can really get back on track!

Thursday, 26 January 2012

Tough going

Tough going at the moment, with a couple more placed efforts but no winner.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.45 Newcastle Fabalu 1pt 6/1+ generally 13/2 Totesport/Paddy Power/VC/Betfred&others
3.15 Newcastle Pyjama Game 1pt 6/1 generally maybe some 7/1 Stan James
3.25 Warwick Romulus D'Artaix 1pt 4/1 generally 9/2 Hills/Skybet

Fabalu went off at 7/1, was struggling early and was the last to finish, poor.

Next up Pyjama Game was being cajoled along quite some way from home with Lucy Alexander doing a good job in keeping him going, and in the end he stayed on pretty well to not be beaten too far in the end, going down by seven lengths, in third. He was well backed into 7/2.

We also got the price with Romulus D'Artaix, who started at 3/1, but couldn't cope with Arctic Ben who shot clear early on and couldn't be caught, with Alan King's 6yo finishing second, beaten just over ten lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Fabalu, 5th/11, 6/1 --- 7/1
Pyjama Game, 3rd/10, 6/1 --- 7/2
Romulus D'Artaix, 2nd/8, 4/1 --- 3/1

The weather's threatening to turn pretty cold these next few days, hopefully racing won't be affected and we can finish January strongly.

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Record gets closer

We had no selections yesterday, and today was disappointing, with yet another second placed finish and a couple which despite being well backed ran shockers.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10 Musselburgh Knight In Purple 1pt 6/1 generally
3.30 Hereford Gainsboroughs Art 1pt 9/1+ generally 10/1 Hills/Bet365/Totesport&others 11/1 StanJames
4.00 Hereford Bringewood Fox 1pt 6/1+ generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Coral

Knight In Purple went off at 11/2 and put in a decent effort, chasing home the winner by just over three lengths, well clear of third. We were probably beaten by the inspired riding from Kyle James who asked Dontpaytheferryman to stretch on as they turned for home, taking five or six lengths out of the field, and then he wasn't quite for catching. It's our 13th second place finish of the month, which is getting annoying now. That's the second highest total since the start of 2010 (14 the record - June 2011, but that was from 85 bets, and we've only had 48 selections so far this month!).

Nothing to report from our next two apart from the fact they were both nicely backed, but ran very poorly.

Gainsborough's Art went off at 5/1 and was leading before three out but then dropped like a stone, maybe something amiss as certainly more was expected.

Then the money just kept coming for Bringewood Fox, who went off 2/1fav on his return after nearly a year, But he just never travelled a yard and was pulled up.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Knight In Purple, 2nd/8, 6/1 --- 11/2
Gainsborough's Art, 8th/11, 9/1 --- 5/1
Bringewood Fox, PU/5, 6/1 --- 2/1

On to tomorrow then and let's see if we can turn some of these 2nds into winners!

Monday, 23 January 2012

A look at Each-Way returns

** This was released to members last Friday lunchtime; Results correct to before racing that day - latest results (yesterday and today) summary below **

We get asked quite regularly whether backing our selections each-way would return greater profits. We know that quite a few members prefer this method, and we can certainly see the advantages, not least the much more regular returns and shorter losing stretches.

Indeed, for this month of January, each-way returns would have outperformed win only returns by 13.31pts (+18.31pts vs +6pts). This month has of course been littered with placed efforts (16 coming second or third out of 36 selections). In total this month 23 have been placed out of 36, including our seven winners (63.8%). However, it perhaps says something that despite the glut of near misses, each-way returns are only outperformaing win-only by 12.31pts, and when we look again at historical returns we can see that win-only returns, in the long-term, does quite comfortably beat backing at each-way.

From January 1st 2010 to the current date, backing win-only returns +287.67pts, while each-way returns are at +144.425pts.

Here is a graph of how win-only returns have performed against each-way. The Blue line is win-only, the red is each-way.

You can see how when we have poor spells, backing each-way does generally outperform win-only, but when the winners come the win-only bank stretches clear.

However, the each-way graph does have a somewhat more stable look to it, and for that reason each-way betting will have its place for those members who prefer the option of more regular returns.


So, on to a look back to the last couple of days, and all a bit low-key with no returns.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Market Rasen Swansbrook 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Bet365/VC&others

2.00 Market Rasen Heavenstown 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Bet365/Skybet

Heavenstown raced prominently but faded disappointingly on his handicap debut to be well beaten, after drifting to 8/1 at SP.

Swansbrook was also frustratingly easy to back close to post-time, going off at 9/1, but after being shaken along early went on to run pretty well for a long time, but was outpaced when push came to shove, to finish 5th, beaten around ten lengths.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.15 Wetherby Prince Blackthorn 1pt 4/1 generally

And at least we had a bit of value with this one, with William Amos' 6yo going off at 7/2. He raced too keenly early on but as they turned for home he looked very much the likely winner, trading at about 1/2 in running. But it seemed the earlier exertions caught up with him late on, as he faded to fifth.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Sunday 22nd January 2012

Heavenstown, 7th/15, 5/1 --- 8/1
Swansbrook, 5th/14, 7/1 --- 9/1

Monday 23rd January 2012

Prince Blackthorn, 5th/10, 4/1 --- 7/2

So a frustrating little run we're on right now, and hopefully we'll snap out of it with a good day tomorrow!

Saturday, 21 January 2012

2nd 2nd 2nd

Time for a deep breath!

If you were able to skim over our next 1000 bets, we'll have plenty of runs where we have a high volume of winners, we'll have some poor runs too of course, and we'll have runs where we just keep hitting the post.

If you could just skip through each result, day by day, hitting the "next button", and look at all the results in the space of, say, ten minutes, you will see it all end with (we're sure) continued strong profits.

But when you're playing out these 1000 bets day by day my word can there be some frustrations thrown in along the way!

Of course it means we can enjoy the good times too (for they will come again - and how - at some point soon) - and we'll look forward to that.

Anyway, a good day today for members who did an each-way trixie or treble (not us by the way), as our three selections all ran really well but each ran into one too good. To not get one of them to finish in front's a bit of a kick in the teeth, but that's the game we're in, it can be tough sometimes!

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.20 Haydock Stow 1pt 11/2+generally 6/1 in most places
2.45 Wincanton The Rainbow Hunter 1pt 8/1+generally 9/1 Lads/PaddyPower 10/1 Bet365/Totesport/VC&others
3.20 Wincanton Not So Sure Dick 1pt 7/1+ generally 15/2 Totesport 8/1 Bet365/PaddyPower/SportingBet

Stow went off at 9/2 and ran really well, leading approaching the last, but wasn't able to repel the challenge of Donald McCain runner Reindeer Dippin, who's stable is just flying right now.

The Rainbow Hunter also ran well, but like Stow ran into one, with the well handicapped Shuil Royale skipping clear from two out. Kim Bailey's 8yo put in a very good showing though, well clear of third, after going off an easy to back 10/1.

So would we complete the hat-trick of seconds, oh yes, with Not So Sure Dick going down by four lengths to Hunt Ball, eleven lengths clear of the third. Again we had a good run for our money, with George Baker's gelding making smooth progress and staying on well, but just couldn't match the winner for toe, after going off at 15/2.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Stow, 2nd/10, 6/1 --- 9/2
The Rainbow Hunter, 2nd, 9/1 --- 10/1
Not So Sure Dick, 2nd, 7/1 --- 15/2

In fairness it wasn't as if any of our three today were mugged late, or were in any way unlucky. They all just ran well but ran into another a bit too good on the day. Going forward we'll have days when it doesn't go like that, and we rattle up a sequence of wins rather than 2nds. Roll on that day!

Friday, 20 January 2012

More awards!

Fresh from being made a Hall of Fame service by the highly respected proofing website the Secret Betting Club, we're delighted to say that our 2011 performance has been rewarded with two more prizes.

We have been awarded the Silver Award for "Best Overall Tipster of 2011 (open to new members)".

The quote used is:

The Silver award goes to The Market Examiner who performed very well on all 4 tables and had a very good 2011 overall.

The four tables they looked at are "Total Profits in 2011; Total Profits in 2011 (after fees); Return On Investment; Return On Investment +"

"Return on Investment +" means the ROI multiplied by the number of bets, with this being the example given - "For example a tipster with an ROI of 10% over 1000 bets is far better than a tipster who has a 30% ROI over just 100 bets."

We have also been awarded the Silver Award for "Best Overall Horse Racing Tipster of 2011 (open to new members)".

The full details are available to members, and you can join by clicking here. (This is of course a non-affiliate link in case you're wondering).

On to today's results and we've had our worst day for a good few days, with none of our three doing the business.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.10 Chepstow Karinga Dream 1pt 6/1+generally 13/2 Totesport/Betfred/Skybet
2.10 Catterick Cool Operator 1pt 11/2+generally 6/1 Hills/Bet365/Coral&others 13/2 Boylesports
4.00 Chepstow Paddy The Yank 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Hills 7/1 Lads/Totesport/PaddyPower maybe some 15/2 Betfred

Karinga Dream went off at 11/2 but was struggling some way out and was well beaten.

Cool Operator was the one which we didn't get the price with, with Philip Kirby's 9yo going off at 15/2. He raced prominently for a good while but weakened from four out.

Finally Paddy The Yank came about and it was encouraging to see him supported down to 11/4 at the off, but he never really travelled that well and was well held in third when he fell two out.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Karinga Dream, 9th/10, 13/2 --- 11/2
Cool Operator, 6th/10, 6/1 --- 15/2
Paddy The Yank, F/7, 7/1 --- 11/4

So, on to tomorrow!

Thursday, 19 January 2012

Ticking along nicely

Things ticking along quite nicely at the moment, with another winner today, in the feature chase at Taunton.

Yesterday we had a decent effort from our one selection:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
12.40 Southwell Kinkeel 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Coral

And it was a good showing from the 13yo, after starting at 6/1. Up there throughout, he was just a bit flat-footed as the pace quickened but then stayed on strongly into second, finishing four lengths behind the winner.

Today we had our second early selection since we introduced it, and two "conventional" selections.

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.10 Ludlow Eldred 1pt 5/1 generally
3.50 Taunton Michael Flips 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 SportingBet


3.20 Taunton Third Intention 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Lads/Skybet/StanJames/Boylesports

Nicky Henderson's Eldred was a little weak in the betting, going off at 13/2 but was going ok until finding nothing when asked for an effort.

Our next two ran in the cracking back to back handicaps at Taunton, the first the hurdles contest. We had a good showing Third Intention who was backed into 7/2 and ran a cracker, just not finding quite enough close to home. The County Hurdle will probably be next for him at Cheltenham.

It'll likely be the Festival next too for our winner today - Michael Flips, who we also got the right price about, with Nick Scholfield's 8yo going off at 4/1. He jumped really well throughout, except perhaps for being a bit hesitant at the last, and kept on really well to win by 3/4 length, with, like the previous race, the front two well clear.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday 18th January 2011

Kinkeel, 2nd/10, 7/1 --- 6/1

Thursday 19th January 2011

Eldred, 9th/13, 5/1 -- 13/2
Third Intention, 2nd/12, 5/1 --- 7/2
Michael Flips, 1st/11, 5/1 --- 4/1

So another couple of points added since the last update, and we look forward to tomorrow!

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

We are a HALL OF FAME service

We are delighted to announce that we have been made granted "Hall of Fame" status by the highly respected proofing website the Secret Betting Club.

This is a huge accolade and something we are very proud about, and follows a highly positive review last year. It's a bit like getting an oscar in the world of tipping services.

We will soon have more details and part of the review on our website, although naturally for access to the whole review you'll need to join SBC to read it in full.

We will be doing everything we can to justify this decision and status going forward.

We still have a few spaces available to join the service, and if you would like to get involved you can join from £17.08 a month.

Gathering momentum

Another profitable day today, and a winning start for our "early-bird" selection process.

This is where we think a move has the right characteristics early on to warrant being made a selection around a couple of hours earlier than our usual selections are made.

We strongly believe this will add to our profits over the coming year.

In total we had three today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Ayr See The Legend 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Hills/Coral
4.00 Folkestone Alder Mairi 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/VC


3.30 Folkestone Malin Head 1pt 9/2 Bet365/Hills

First up See The Legend was a little weak on course at Ayr, and went off at 7/1, She ran well for a good while but was a bit outpaced at the business end.

Then we had Malin Head, who landed quite a touch for connections at Folkestone. It was funny watching the exchanges with this one today, you sensed that layers were desperate to push him out and get stuck in but the money kept coming, in the end going off a well backed 9/4. Ridden to lead from the off, he put in a really gutsy performance, fending off all comers to win by nearly two lengths in the end.

Last up was Alder Mairi (SP 8/1), running in the bumper at Folkestone, and she put in a decent performance, coming with what looked like a promising run towards the finish only to run a little green and not find as much as hoped. She wasn't beaten far, but finished 5th.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

See The Legend, 5th/10, 5/1 --- 7/1
Malin Head, 1st/8, 9/2 --- 9/4
Alder Mairi, 5th/8, 7/1 --- 8/1

It sounds like officials at Southwell are optimistic about racing tomorrow, which will be good as there's some decent fields due to go as we look to make it three winning days in a row!

Monday, 16 January 2012

Good winner

We just had the one selection which ran in the end today, and Pretty Penny did it in cracking style at Plumpton this afternoon.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10 Plumpton Humbel Ben 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Totesport/Boylesports & others
3.40 Plumpton Pretty Penny 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Lads/Totesport/PaddyPower & others

There was a lot of money around for Humbel Ben and it was frustrating to see him pulled out as a non-runner.

So we looked to Pretty Penny to do the business, and so she did. Given an excellent ride by Felix de Giles, she was produced to challenge as they turned for home. Cleverly switched to the rail, she stayed on all the way to the line to win by 3/4 length. It was Felix's only ride of the day, and the horse was having her first run for her new stable, and was fresh from a point succes. Well done to all concerned. There was lots of money about for her earlier but she drifted out to 6/1 to give us an extra 1.5pts of profit. That's two drifters who've done the business for us in the last few days, sometimes it's the early money which is the most telling.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Humbel Ben NR
Pretty Penny, 1st/11, 9/2 --- 6/1

A shame that Fakenham's off tomorrow already, but fingers crossed for Folkestone and Ayr as we look to follow up!

Sunday, 15 January 2012

Weekend update

No bets today, Sunday, with Kelso off, which was disappointing. I suppose we've had a very mild winter all in all so far this year though so we can't complain too much.

So let's look back at yesterday where we had two more decent efforts but no rewards for us win-only backers. We'll look again at our historic each-way returns compared to win-only soon. There's no question it can be frustrating seeing so many go close but get nothing back to show for it, but we've always found win-only to have better returns over the course of time. We'll take a detailed look in the next couple of days and get the results up on the website too.

Anyway here's what we had yesterday:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
12.50 Warwick Up To The Mark 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 PaddyPower/Totesport/Skybet/Betfred
2.00 Warwick Tara Royal 1pt 8/1 generally
3.20 Kempton Peplum 1pt 16/1+generally inc. 20/1 Lads/VC/Bet365/Coral/Totesport&others

Up To The Mark put in a solid performance, leading near enough the whole way until they went over the last hurdle, but didn't quite have the finishing burst he needed, having to settle for third beaten just over a couple of lengths after starting at 5/1.

Tara Royal opened on course at 11/1 and drifted to 14/1 by post time, but put in a decent effort, moving up strongly into contention before two out before just not seeing it out in the end, finishing third, not beaten that far.

Then came Peplum, who started at 25/1 and didn't do much at all. He spent much of the contest in the rear but actually did stay on towards the end to suggest he might go in at a big price soon, as he continues to drop in the weights.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised -- SP):

Up To The Mark, 3rd/15, 9/2 --- 5/1
Tara Royal, 3rd/8, 8/1 --- 14/1
Peplum, 8th/14, 20/1 --- 25/1

Hope you have a great week.

Friday, 13 January 2012

Going close again

If a few more things had fallen our way this month we could really be sitting with a decent profit.

Today though we had three more go close from our four selections, including two more second placed finishes, and our third 2pt selection of the month getting placed but not getting in front. It'll come.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.20 Huntingdon Big Bertie 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Totesport/PaddyPower/Betfred
2.40 Musselburgh Auberge 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Bet365/Coral&others
2.50 Huntingdon Unwanted Gift 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Hills/VC/Totesport/Betfred maybe some 8/1 Bluesq
3.20 Huntingdon Flora's Pride 2pt 11/1+ generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Bet365&others 14/1 Hills

Big Bertie was the only disappointing performance today really, going off a well backed 6/1 chance, he was up there for a while before dropping tamely away.

Auberge got within a length of giving us a return. Always prominent, she just couldn't get past the winner as much as she tried, and she ended in a dead heat for second, beaten 3/4 length. A good effort, after starting at 4/1.

More value was had with Unwanted Gift, who was held up out the back and given a pretty patient ride. Consequently he had to have a fair old turn of foot to pick up and win, and couldn't manage it, staying on to second but sadly five lengths behind the winner. Rachel Hobbs' 7yo started at 11/2.

Then came the two pointer - would we have our first big return of 2012? Not yet, but Flora's Pride ran well after continuing to be supported into 15/2. She was travelling comfortably and looking a big danger until about two out where she just couldn't quite go with the front two, ending up finishing third, well clear of fourth.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Big Bertie, 6th/8, 10/1 --- 6/1
Auberge, 2nd/9, 6/1 --- 4/1
Unwanted Gift, 2nd/7, 15/2 --- 11/2
Flora's Price, 3rd/10, 11/1 --- 15/2

January's been a strange month so far. The vast majority of selections are running well, with 16 of our 25 selections getting placed at an average price of 7.56/1 (incidentally, beating average SP of 6.2/1), but we're yet to motor on. A really big day is just around the corner, we're sure of it.

Thursday, 12 January 2012

Bouncing back

A cracking result today with our only selection of the day doing the business in determined fashion at Fontwell.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.05 Fontwell Dirty Deal 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 SportingBet

Dirty Deal was very well supported in the morning for Tony Carroll, but went on the drift as they got closer to post time, although she was nibbled back in again from 10/1 to 9/1 just before the off. Any thought that today wasn't meant to be her day was soon put to bed as Carroll himself led her off at the start and helped give her a flying start. After that she always travelled comfortably, although jockey Lee Edwards almost came off with a circuit to go as she stumbled on landing after one of the hurdles. He did a great job in staying on board, and then rode out a terrific finish with the 8yo really bravely staying on to win by nearly two lengths.

It was a brilliant ride by Edwards and to see afterwards that he got a five day ban for breaking the whip rules is a complete joke.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Dirty Deal, 1st/7, 5/1 --- 9/1

As we know a drift is normally a negative sign, but not today, the morning money was down and Dirty Deal ran out a cracking winner. Bet365 was one of the firms still at 5/1 ten minutes after the email went today so we add a bonus four points to our profit for the day thanks to their BOG. Just for the avoidance of doubt SportingBet may have been 11/2 but we never settle using them, likewise we don't settle using the likes of Betfred/Boylesports/Stan James/BlueSq/Skybet or other firms well known for not taking a decent bet. Over the course of a year of settling results this costs us quite a few points but we think its the fairest way to monitor our results.

Wednesday, 11 January 2012

Poor day

Not good today, with two selections running poorly and the other making too many mistakes to get competitive.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.25 Ffos Las Federstar 1pt 6/1 generally 13/2 Paddy Power/SportingBet
3.00 Ffos Las Changing Lanes 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred/SportingBet 11/2 Coral
3.25 Doncaster Vin De Roy 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills/Lads/Totesport/Skybet/Betfred

Two of these drifted which is as we know is often a bad sign.

First of all Federstar was very weak on the exchanges pre-first show on course, where Martin Keighley's 10yo was supported in again from 9/1 to 15/2 - still longer than advised this morning. Then came a poor performance, he was one of the first off the bridle and was tailed off when pulled up. Not good.

Changing Lanes fared similarly, starting at 6/1 he was being pushed along all too early and also didn't even manage to complete.

Vin De Roy at least made it round, and was supported into 7/1 SP, but made numerous jumping errors which cost him any chance. He was losing at least a length with pretty much every obstacle he passed, and in fairness the fact he was still there in contention three out was pretty impressive given that, and if he can improve in that regard he may be one to keep an eye out for.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Federstar, PU/6, 6/1 --- 15/2
Changing Lanes, PU/7, 5/1 --- 6/1
Vin De Roy, 6th/9, 8/1 --- 7/1

Let's certainly hope for better tomorrow!

Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Nought for one

A disappointing effort from our one selection today, in the last at Leicester.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.40 Leicester Playing With Fire 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Hills/Bet365/PaddyPower/VC/Totesport/Betfred

Robin Dickin's grey mare was held up out the back after being a bit weak in the betting on course, going off at 6/1, after opening at 9/2. When asked for an effort she had no real turn of foot and finished a well beaten sixth.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Playing With Fire, 6th/9, 11/2 --- 6/1

So she'll go into the "next time out" notebook and we'll see how she gets on. She's entered to run back over the big fences at Kempton on Saturday, and if she goes to post and it'll be interesting to see how she runs.

Monday, 9 January 2012

Another placed effort

A month of near misses so far, today's second place finish our fifth of the month already (31% of all selections). We're running at a placed strike rate of 75% at the moment, with twelve out of our sixteen so far finishing in the frame.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.10 Taun Don't Panic 1pt 8-1 + 9-1 Lads, Blue Square

Don't Panic was very nicely supported down to an SP of 4/1, obviously a big run was expected, and so it proved with Nick Scolfield's 8yo finishing in the frame for the first time since November 2009. He pulled too hard for his own good in the early stages of the race, and was ridden some way from home, before staying on well at the end to finish second, some way behind the winner. The early exertions probably didn't help, though the winner did it well.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Don't Panic, 2nd/9, 9/1 --- 4/1

Running into one has been a bit of a theme this month so far but at least most of the selections are running well and we should get our rewards soon.

Sunday, 8 January 2012

Weekend update

It's been fairly slow in terms of selections since our last update - none on Friday, a couple on Saturday and then one today, Sunday.

Let's start out look back yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.25 Newcastle Teerie Express 1pt 4/1+generally 9/2 Lads/Hills/Totesport/VC&others
2.05 Sandown Tanks For That 1pt 9/2+generally 5/1 Bet365/Totesport/Betfred

Teerie Express went off at 5/1, and showed up well for a long time trading at around evens for a time, but was a bit one paced after losing the lead before three out, and eventually finished third, losing second on the run-in.

Tanks For That (9/2sp), was up there for much of this decent two mile handicap, but a mistake two out seemed to spoil what chance he had, and he as well finished third, losing second on the post.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.30 Hereford Acapulco Bay 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Skybet/Boylesports 12/1 Lads/Bet365/VC/PP/Bluesq Maybe some 14/1 Stan James/SportingBet

This was the second time in the last couple of months we've put up Dai Burchell's 8yo, and again we didn't collect, although this was a slightly better showing than last time. Nicely backed into 8/1, he was held up and well behind before trying to close as they turned for home. He only got so far though before the petrol ran out, and he had to settle for fourth.

Confirmation of results with price (advised --- SP):

Saturday 7th January 2012:

Teerie Express, 3rd/8, 9/2 --- 5/1
Tanks For That, 3rd/9, 5/1 --- 9/2

Sunday 8th January 2012:

Acapulco Bay, 4th/12, 12/1 --- 8/1

A disappointing weekend and we look for better tomorrow.

Thursday, 5 January 2012

Cracking day

Really good day today, with two winners from our three selections, a nice 9.5pts of profit, and good value had too.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.20 Lingfield Whitcombe Spirit 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/VC/Skybet/Boylesports
2.20 Lingfield Rosoff 1pt 11/2 generally
3.50 Lingfield Grafite 1pt 5/1 generally

First of all, Whitcombe Spirit was disappointing. Backed all the way into an SP of 3/1, his jumping left a fair bit to be desired, and when he tried to make his move he didn't have enough left in the tank to properly challenge.

Much better was had with our next two.

First of all, Rosoff, who started at 4/1, was given a cracking ride by his ten pound claimer Nathan Adams. Always there, he was asked for an effort as they turned for home and came to take it up just as they went over the final fence. Laura Mongan's ten year old was tired in the heavy ground but Adams rode him out well for a relatively easy win in the end, by more than four lengths. 6/1 was available at SportingBet about this one but we don't count that bookie for settlement purposes.

Grafite's win was similar to Rosoff's in a way, albeit more comfortable. Always up there throughout, he was asked to go and win his race by Brendan Powell jr from two out and despite a pretty bad error at the last, he always had more than enough and won by more than ten lengths. He started a very well backed 2/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Whitcombe Spirit, 4th/6, 6/1 --- 3/1
Rosoff, 1st/7, 11/2 --- 4/1
Grafite, 1st/5, 5/1 --- 2/1

A good day all round, and pushes January nicely into profit. Let's hope we can find our third profitable day in a row tomorrow to really keep things kicking on!

Wednesday, 4 January 2012

Off and running for the year

After six placed efforts in our first eight selections of 2012, including four finishing second, we were pleased to get in the winners' enclosure at Southwell this afternoon.

We had two today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.10 Southwell Tisfreetdream 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Coral 8/1 Bet365/Totesport/SkyBet/Betfred/SportingBet
2.40 Southwell Johnny Owen 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Hills/Paddy Power

Tisfreetdream ran well, travelling nicely for a long way, but didn't have that finishing kick from a couple of hurdles' out, to end up finishing third, after starting a nicely backed 5/1.

While there was good support about for Tisfreetdream, there was plenty more about Johnny Owen in the next. It was the David Brace 6yo's handicap debut and he sauntered to success. Once Paddy Brennan let him have his head and take the lead, he just powered clear and was never looking back (although Brennan did quite a few times!). After showing precious little since a decent bumper debut, he was absolutely thrown in, starting at 3/1, and he's entered to run again at Hereford on Sunday.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Tisfreetdream, 3rd/13, 8/1 --- 5/1
Johnny Owen, 1st/8, 4/1 --- 3/1

We've had a very good start to the year in terms of getting the value and it's good to get off the mark win wise too. Roll on tomorrow!

2011 Review

We have completed our 2011 Review, which is fairly exhaustive.

Please click here to see it:

As ever any questions or comments very welcome.

We still have a few spaces left available for 2012, with prices starting from just over £17 a month we believe we remain one of the best value services available. Members staking at just £5 a point last year would have made nearly £800 to level stakes, much more if they used a percentage of bank staking plan, as we suggest.

Join now before it's too late!

Monday, 2 January 2012

Knocking at the door

Well today could have been a cracker, but just not quite to be, with three selections finishing second at big prices and another placed having traded odds on in running. A big pay day's surely just around the corner.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.55 Ayr Et Maintenant 2pt 11/1+ generally 12/1 Hills/Lads/Coral/VC/PaddyPower&others
2.25 Ayr Kempski 1pt 7/1+generally 15/2 Hills 8/1 Lads/Skybet
2.35 Folkestone Spaceman 1pt 14/1+generally 16/1 Lads/Hills/Bet365/Totesport&others
3.00 Ayr Bunratty 2pt 11/1+generally 12/1 Lads/Skybet/Boylesports/SportingBet
3.20 Plumpton Goring Two 1pt 5/1+generally 11/2 Hills/Bet365&others 6/1 Lads/Coral

Et Maintenant went off at 10/1 and was out-gunned by the winner who was given a really positive ride. Lucinda Russell's 10yo was staying on well at the end but just wasn't going to get there, finishing second, well clear of third.

Kempski was our only unplaced effort of the day, a bit weak before hand, starting at 10/1, the old boy was just never really travelling and ended up getting pulled up.

Like Et Maintenant, Spaceman had offered precious little recent form to speak of but ran well, finishing second, just running into one too good, after starting at 16/1.

Next up was Bunratty, our second 2pt selection of the day, and was another to run well, trading at shorter than 6/4 as he quickened clear turning for home. Sadly he couldn't keep it up, making a mistake three out as he was joined, but he rallied well again to finish second, after starting at 8/1.

So could Goring Two offer some compensation? Well he looked the likeliest winner as they went for home, trading odds on he was travelling comfortably before clattering the third last, almost coming down, which seemed to knock the stuffing out of him a bit, and he finished third, after starting at 4/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Et Maintenant, 2nd/7, 12/1 --- 10/1
Kempski, PU/6, 7/1 --- 10/1
Spaceman, 2nd/9, 16/1 --- 14/1
Bunratty, 2nd/7, 11/1 --- 8/1
Goring Two, 3rd/10, 6/1 --- 4/1

So four out of our first seven selections of 2012 have finished second at an average price (available ten mins after email delivery) of 11.5/1, that's a pretty frustrating way to start the new year! But at least the horses are running well, and we look forward to getting our rewards soon.

December Analysis

Time for our look back at December - and a full 2011 review will follow in the next day or two as well.

December was a funny month as although we ended in profit, our average SP was higher than our average advised stake for the first time this year. This is mainly down to the poor performance of our larger priced selections, too many of whom uncharacteristically drifted in price, the biggest being a 19pt swing with Trecase advised at 14/1 and went off at 33s. Annoying.

Let's look at the stats:

Bets: 42
Wins: 7 (16.67%)
2nds: 1 (2.4%)
3rds: 5 (11.9%)
Placed total: 13 (31%)
Average odds taken: 8.02/1
Average SP: 8.79/1
Average win odds: 6.37/1
Profit/Loss: +4.6pts
Return On Investment: +9.79%

It's a good win rate, but our average priced winner is pretty low hence the small profit for the month. We would have had 9.6pts of profit (ROI +22.86%) if we had kept the five two point selections to one point. These 2pt picks (on some of our bigger priced selections) are on a poor run at the moment and have dragged down the points total for a while now.

However they were still highly profitable for 2011 as a whole and it will only take a one or two of them to come in to swing things around hugely.

More on their performance in the 2011 review!

Sunday, 1 January 2012

2012 underway

So we're under way for the new year! Unfortunately neither of our two selections could give us win-backers a return today, but away we go and roll on the next twelve months.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.25 Musselburgh Rumble Of Thunder 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Paddy Power 7/1 Lads/Bet365/Hills/Coral/Totesport&others
3.00 Musselburgh Premier Sagas 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Hills/Bet365/PP &others

Rumble Of Thunder was possibly one that got away, Kate Walton's 6yo was beginning to really pick up coming to the last and was within a length or two of the leader but hit the last hurdle so hard he almost fell, giving up all chance, after starting at 7/1. A frustrating way to start the new year!

Then came Premier Sagas, who was nicely backed into 5/1 at the off, and stayed on well towards the end, into second, well behind the comfortable winner Fiendish Flame (a winner for us last month).

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Rumble Of Thunder, 6th/11, 7/1 --- 7/1
Premier Sagas, 2nd/11, 7/1 --- 5/1

It was interesting to see, by the way, an unplaced selection for us last month, Mostly Bob, landing a big late gamble at Cheltenham today. Available at 11/1 in the morning, he was backed near the off right into 9/2 and stayed on really well in the 1.35 to win quite easily in the end. Our "Next Time Out" analysis continues to be of great interest, looking at those runners who miss the frame for us.