Monday, 23 January 2012

A look at Each-Way returns

** This was released to members last Friday lunchtime; Results correct to before racing that day - latest results (yesterday and today) summary below **

We get asked quite regularly whether backing our selections each-way would return greater profits. We know that quite a few members prefer this method, and we can certainly see the advantages, not least the much more regular returns and shorter losing stretches.

Indeed, for this month of January, each-way returns would have outperformed win only returns by 13.31pts (+18.31pts vs +6pts). This month has of course been littered with placed efforts (16 coming second or third out of 36 selections). In total this month 23 have been placed out of 36, including our seven winners (63.8%). However, it perhaps says something that despite the glut of near misses, each-way returns are only outperformaing win-only by 12.31pts, and when we look again at historical returns we can see that win-only returns, in the long-term, does quite comfortably beat backing at each-way.

From January 1st 2010 to the current date, backing win-only returns +287.67pts, while each-way returns are at +144.425pts.

Here is a graph of how win-only returns have performed against each-way. The Blue line is win-only, the red is each-way.

You can see how when we have poor spells, backing each-way does generally outperform win-only, but when the winners come the win-only bank stretches clear.

However, the each-way graph does have a somewhat more stable look to it, and for that reason each-way betting will have its place for those members who prefer the option of more regular returns.


So, on to a look back to the last couple of days, and all a bit low-key with no returns.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Market Rasen Swansbrook 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Bet365/VC&others

2.00 Market Rasen Heavenstown 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Bet365/Skybet

Heavenstown raced prominently but faded disappointingly on his handicap debut to be well beaten, after drifting to 8/1 at SP.

Swansbrook was also frustratingly easy to back close to post-time, going off at 9/1, but after being shaken along early went on to run pretty well for a long time, but was outpaced when push came to shove, to finish 5th, beaten around ten lengths.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.15 Wetherby Prince Blackthorn 1pt 4/1 generally

And at least we had a bit of value with this one, with William Amos' 6yo going off at 7/2. He raced too keenly early on but as they turned for home he looked very much the likely winner, trading at about 1/2 in running. But it seemed the earlier exertions caught up with him late on, as he faded to fifth.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Sunday 22nd January 2012

Heavenstown, 7th/15, 5/1 --- 8/1
Swansbrook, 5th/14, 7/1 --- 9/1

Monday 23rd January 2012

Prince Blackthorn, 5th/10, 4/1 --- 7/2

So a frustrating little run we're on right now, and hopefully we'll snap out of it with a good day tomorrow!

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