Thursday, 31 March 2011

March Analysis

Another cracking month then, with 59pts of profit to show for our efforts, with a return on investment of +79.73%. Our win strike rate was actually slightly down on what we like to expect, at 13.85%, but our average win odds of 10.22/1 more than made up for it.

We beat SP again, on average by just over half a point on each bet, which would have been much more had it not been for a few very big drifters (one of which won, Meridiem from 8/1 out to 14/1). It was pleasing to see our winners outnumber our 2nds and 3rds, keeping things ticking over nicely. It's quite amazing to think that we had a run of 27 losers within the month - which according to statistics is one shy of what we should EVER have with a win strike rate of 13.85% from 65 bets. It's so important to take these runs as they come, and soak them up, not letting them affect you. We're hardened to losing sequences but appreciate it's not easy for some who aren't used to rolling with that sort of sequence. It's just a case of having a solid betting bank and absolute confidence in the long term.

Anyway just beginning to ramble now so let's take a look at the stats:

We had:

Bets: 65

Wins: 9 (13.85%)

2nds: 8 (12.30%)

3rds: 4 (6.15%)

Placed total: 21 (32.31%)

Average odds taken: 8.15/1

Average win odds: 10.22/1

Average SP: 7.60/1

Profit/Loss: +59pts

Return On Investment: +79.73%

All in all, excellent stuff. We can only hope April serves us equally as well. With the number of meetings due to rise considerably as the flat season gets in full swing, our number of bets will no doubt increase. An exciting few months ahead!

Bit of a damp squib

What's been another superb month ends with a below par day, with three selections failing to hit the frame.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.20 Leicester Dream Whisperer 1pt 8/1 Coral
3.50 Leicester Regal Rave 1pt 5/1 Bet365/Hills other BOG
4.05 Ludlow The Snail 1pt 8/1 Lads

Dream Whisperer was really well backed in the opener at Leicester, the a maiden race for 2year olds, starting at 9/2. She was a touch slowly away and while didn't run badly, was a bit green and was fairly soundly beaten. Obviously a bit more was expected, and she may be one to keep an eye on.

Regal Rave started at 4s but while he raced prominently for a while ended up stone last.

The Snail, who at the end of 2009 and into 2010 ran up five wins in a row, went off at 7/1, and was pretty reluctant to race, looking thoroughly awkward and ending up being pulled up.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Dream Whisperer, 5th/7, 8/1 --- 9/2
Regal Rave, 8th/8, 5/1 --- 4/1
The Snail, PU/11, 8/1 --- 7/1

We'll put up a review of March in a few minutes.

Wednesday, 30 March 2011

New flat season, same profits!

Day one of the new flat season then today, and we started in the best possible way with a nice 6/1 winner at Redcar, giving us 3pts of profit from the four of our selections which ran.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.40 Here Formedable 1pt 9-1 P Power, VCBet
2.50 Catt Dazeen 1pt 15-2 P Power
3.20 Catt Baltimore Clipper 1pt 9-2 B365 and other BOG, 5s S James, Tote
4.20 Catt Another Wise Kid 1pt 11-2 VC Bet, 5s other BOG
4.40 Here Sourchamp 1pt 6-1 W Hill, P Power & other BOG 13-2 S James, Tote

Formedable ran quite well after starting at 17/2, just tired close to home, finishing third.

Dazeen was well behind making the turn for home but stayed on quite nicely under a tender ride, to suggest possibly more to come, although he was well beaten today after going off at 12/1.

Baltimore Clipper was unfortunately a non runner.

Another Wise Kid won his maiden really well, always racing prominently he quickened nicely clear in the last furlong to win by more than two lengths to give us our return for the day and record hopefully the first of many wins for us in the flat season ahead. With b.o.g we got an extra half point of profit with the SP returning 6/1.

While it was a good day profits wise, it wasn't in terms of value with Sourchamp another to drift, being pushed right out to 12/1 at the off. He was up there for a while but couldn't go with them and ended up well beaten.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Formedable, 3rd/8, 9/1 --- 17/2
Dazeen, 8th/15, 15/2 --- 12/1
Baltimore Clipper NR
Another Wise Kid, 1st/12, 11/2 --- 6/1
Sourchamp, 6th/7, 6/1 --- 12/1

Just to add, we didn't have any selections yesterday (Tuesday).

So it's the last day of what's been another fantastic month tomorrow, if April can close to the profits we've seen in February and March we'll be very happy!

Monday, 28 March 2011

Back in business!

A really excellent day today, with two winners from two, and even better returns than anticipated thanks to best odds guaranteed.

Both were at Towcester:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30 Towcester Meridiem 1pt 8-1 general, BOG
4.00 Towcester Jolly Boys Outing 1pt 9-1 B 365

And both selections won really quite easily, terrific stuff.

Meridiem went on an almighty drift after we put him up this morning at 8/1, with layers on the exchanges pushing him right out to well over double those odds. One or two others were fancied, but certainly the vibes weren't great about Sean Regan's 7yo. We needn't have worried though, he jumped well throughout, and was always travelling strongly, and when he was asked to go and win his race he duly did so, great stuff, and at odds of 14/1 SP (we almost got 16s), we had a cracking start to the day.

Next up, Jolly Boys Outing had been all the rage in the morning, and we got on board at 9/1, again with Bet365 offering best odds guaranteed. Another drifter, he was pushed out to 10/1 at the off (after touching 11/1 for a time), and he recorded a wonderfully smooth success, travelling well and powering home, despite jumping a bit erratically in the closing stages.

So a lovely 24pts of profit today, which bring March back to 59pts up, just what the doctor ordered.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Meridiem, 1st/15, 8/1 --- 14/1
Jolly Boys Outing, 1st/8, 9/1 --- 10/1

There's just the one jumps meeting tomorrow, at Taunton, and it'll be interesting to see if we have any further opportunities to kick on, let's hope so.

Sunday, 27 March 2011

Quiet Sunday

Contrary to yesterday's busy day of selections, we had just the one pick today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.40 Hexham Fiftyfive Degrees 1pt 6/1 Bet365

Fiftyfive Degrees went off at 7/1in his first time blinkers, and ran well for a long time, right up there in contention. Unfortunately at the business end he couldn't go with the principles, and faded out of things to finish seventh.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Fiftyfive Degrees, 7th/12, 6/1 --- 7/1

So not a good weekend, to cap a frustrating week! We look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings, where hopefully we'll get back in that winners' enclosure once again.

Saturday, 26 March 2011

Tough run, and roll on the flat

We're on a tough run run at the moment, with the last couple of days not yet getting us out of it, although we've had some better efforts than what we saw from our selections on Thursday.

Let's start with yesterday, we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.25 Newbury Big Robert 2pt 12/1 Bet365/Hills/VC/Lads
5.35 Newbury Screaming Brave 1pt 5/1 Bet365/Lads

Big Robert started at 12s and it was always going to be tough after Peter Carberry lost an iron in a second fence blunder, two more poor jumps after that made the task even more difficult and there was no way back, eventually pulling up.

Screaming Brave drifted to 7/1 at SP and didn't seem to really have the pace to go with them. He stayed on quite nicely in the closing stages but was never going to get there.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Big Robert, PU/14, 12/1 --- 12/1
Screaming Brave, 4th/8, 5/1 --- 7/1

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.30 Stratford The Paddy Premium 1pt 12/1 Bet365/Hills (14/1 BetFred)
3.50 Bangor Simarian 2pt 12/1 Lads/VC
4.05 Stratford Mad Professor 1pt 7/1 Totesport/Coral/Betfred/Boylesports
4.20 Bangor Merrydown 2pt 12/1 Lads/Bet365/Hills/Other BOG (14/1 BetFred)
4.30 Newbury Mister Matt 1pt 5/1 Hills/Lads

So a busy day, and three pretty decent performances from our bigger priced selections.

The Paddy Premium was really well backed, starting at 11/2, less than half the odds we had, with some hefty bets on course. He ran well, but a couple of mistakes made life a bit more difficult, and he was under pressure a little way from home, but stayed on well into second, unfortunately never getting close to the winner.

Simarian was also nicely supported in the 3.50 at Bangor, going off at 8/1. Continuing the recent theme of being outpaced before staying on, Evan Williams' six year old did just that, going down by three lengths at the finish, after just getting up for second.

Mad Professor started at 7/1, and finished sixth of the 14 runners, beaten quite a long way.

The 4.20 at Bangor was quite a hot handicap for the track, and Merrydown put in a pretty good showing, coming off and on the bridle at points and threatening to look a serious challenger. But it wasn't quite to be, and he was beaten around nine lengths in the end, back in fifth.

So it was left to Mister Matt to salvage some of the day, but after going off at 7/2, he couldn't manage it, finishing a well beaten third.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

The Paddy Premium, 2nd/6, 12/1 --- 11/2
Simarian, 2nd/7, 12/1 --- 8/1
Mad Professor, 6th/14, 7/1 --- 7/1
Merrydown, 5th/14, 12/1 --- 12/1
Mister Matt, 3rd/6, 5/1 --- 7/2

It's been a very interesting 2011 so far, with great profits posted (97.6pts so far - 50.31% ROI). However we're well aware that's not much consolation for those members who've recently signed up, and we can only hope to get back on the winning trail soon.

The new turf flat season is just around the corner, which is usually very kind to us in terms of profits. As normal there are bound to be many winners in waiting ready to be unleashed, from speedy 2year olds to those well handicapped types who've wintered well, matured and ready to go, we can't wait.

Thursday, 24 March 2011

Worst day for a while

Really not happening today, four selections and four poor performances, in terms of showings perhaps the worst day of the year so far.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30 Southwell Park's Prodigy 2pt 12/1 Lads
3.15 Chepstow Freeze Up 1pt 6/1 Lads/Boylesport
3.25 Carlisle See The Legend 1pt 8/1 Boylesports 7/1 Bet365/Paddy Power
4.25 Chepstow Sunday Sharpner 1pt 10/1 Bet365/VC/Hills
5.20 Southwell Dance Sauvage 1pt 7/1 VC

Not a lot to report really.

Park's Prodigy was unfortunately a non-runner, our second in a couple of days.

Freeze Up led for a good while, but then faded away and ended up tailed off and pulled up, after starting at 11/2.

See The Legend began at 8/1, was outpaced and well beaten.

Sunday Sharpner at least completed, albeit hopelessly detached, after drifting to 12/1 at SP.

Dance Sauvage was nicely backed into 9/2 at the off, but didn't look for a moment like winning, and was another to pull up.

What a shocking day! It happens, we'll just shake ourselves off and go again tomorrow.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Park's Prodigy NR
Freeze Up, PU/7, 6/1 --- 11/2
See The Legend, PU/10, 8/1 --- 8/1
Sunday Sharpner, 7th/8, 10/1 --- 12/1
Dance Sauvage, PU/8, 7/1 --- 9/2

By the way, away from the track what an interesting few weeks we could have in store, after the news that Richard Hannon is threatening to boycott courses which doesn't put up reasonable prize money, following Godolphin's lead. (second article down at the time of writing)

I wonder how many other trainers are going to follow suit.

Wednesday, 23 March 2011

One non runner / text service

Not much to report today, our one selection was made a non-runner within moments of putting him up.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.50 Hereford Petrus De Sormain 1pt 10/1 Bet365

Hopefully a more eventful day tomorrow!

Just to say as well, we will shortly be providing our selections via text message as well as email.

Tuesday, 22 March 2011

Stuttering a bit

After a fine few weeks, things just stuttering a bit now. We're 16pts down on our latest peak, after a run of 15 without a win.

The good news is that it will only take a couple of wins to get us right back on track again given the odds we play at. Also, interestingly, despite March showing 50pts of profit, our win strike rate for this month, of 13.64%, is actually a tad down on what we would normally expect (generally would expect at least close to 15%). That should mean that we're due a slightly above average number of winners before the month is out.

Anyway today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.50 Kempton Georgian King 2pt 12/1 Lads/Betfred
4.25 Kempton Wessex King 1pt 11/2 Hills/Paddy Power/VC
5.20 Exeter Rooftop Rainbow 1pt 10/1 Bet365/Hills/Generally BOG

Georgian King started at 14/1, but frustratingly unseated his rider at the third fence, in a race won by the impressive Pere Blanc.

Wessex King ran prominently for a good while but couldn't go with them at the business end, after going off at 9/2.

Rooftop Rainbow ran well, beaten just around four lengths in finishing fourth, well clear of the rest. It was a decent effort and he could well be winning soon for Linda Blackford.

Georgian King, UR/12, 12/1 --- 14/1
Wessex King, 7th/8, 9/2 --- 11/2
Rooftop Rainbow, 4th/15, 10/1 --- 10/1

On to tomorrow!

Monday, 21 March 2011

A couple of steps back

A couple of steps back today (well, four points to be precise). We put up four selections, and a couple placed.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10 Kelso Bywell Beau 1pt 8/1 Bet365/Lads/Betfred
4.10 Kelso Grandad Bill 1pt 11/2 VC/Betfred (13/2 Stan James)
4.30 Lingfield Whatever Next 1pt 11/1 Bet365 (12/1 Bluesq)
5.00 Lingfield O Malleys Oscar 1pt 5/1 General (B.O.G)

First up, Bywell Beau went off a well backed 5/1 on his favourite course, but the old boy couldn't quite justify the support. He led much of the way, and tried to stay on again when headed, but was pretty well beaten in the end.

Up next Grandad Bill drifted to 15/2 and then never really did a lot, finishing a fair way behind.

Things at Lingfield were delayed so we had to wait a bit longer for our next, with Whatever Next's price really going on the walk, right out to 20/1 SP, and bigger on Betfair. In fairness though he ran a pretty good race, staying on into third, beaten just short of seven lengths in the end. A nice price for those members who like to play each way, particularly with b.o.g in play, but of course nothing for us win only punters.

Then came O Malley's Oscar, who finished second, after going off at 7/2. He was being scrubbed along some way out, but stayed on pretty well. Unfortunately the winner had flown, with Pepito Collonges making a mockery of his odds of 25/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Bywell Beau, 5th/10, 8/1 --- 5/1
Grandad Bill, 7th/11, 11/2 --- 15/2
Whatever Next, 3rd/8, 11/1 --- 20/1
O Malley's Oscar, 2nd/13, 5/1 --- 7/2

Sunday, 20 March 2011

Not a good weekend

Not a good weekend by any means, with just one of our four selections placed, let alone winning.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
5.05 Newcastle Mrs Eff 1pt 8/1 Skybet (15/2 VC/Bluesq)
5.20 Uttoxeter Osolomio 1pt 15/2 Hills

Mrs Eff ran quite well after starting at 15/2, racing prominently and being there with a chance about three out, but she couldn't go with the winner who streaked clear, and ended up just missing out on second.

Osolomio just never got going after starting at 8/1, and was eventually pulled up.

Today, a couple of really poor showings to cap a below par couple of days.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.00 Carlisle What A Dream 1pt 8/1 Lads/Boylesports/Betfred
4.15 Newton Abbot Baltic Ben 1pt 15/2 Boylesports 7/1 Bet365/VC/Lads

What A Dream went off at 7/1 and was well beaten a fair way from home, ending up pulled up.

Baltic Ben put in an arguably even poorer performance, but at least made it around, after starting at 7/1.

We'll certainly be hoping for better tomorrow!

Confirmation of results and prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 19th March 2011

Mrs Eff, 3rd/10, 8/1 --- 15/2
Osolomio, PU/6, 15/2 --- 8/1

Sunday 20th March 2011

What A Dream, PU/7, 8/1 --- 7/1
Baltic Ben, 9th/11, 15/2 --- 7/1

Saturday, 19 March 2011

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Pre-Race Market Moves Day 4

Just to tidy up today's results from our look at pre-race market moves in handicap races at the Festival.

If you're not sure what this is about, here's some more info:

Things went into the final day 3.2pts down at SP. Today there were eleven qualifiers from the three handicaps, and none of them won, although Get Me Out Of Here came within a whisker of getting up in the county hurdle.

So all told, a loss of 14.2pts on the week. It's been interesting to watch, and roll on next year to see if things correct themselves!

Friday, 18 March 2011

No selections today

Another very trappy day at Cheltenham market wise, so we left things alone, and there was nothing for us at Fakenham either.

Hopefully there'll be plenty for us to get stuck into tomorrow.

What a race the Gold Cup was, great performances by many and very well done to Sam Whaley-Cohen, fabulous!

Thursday, 17 March 2011

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Pre-Race Market Moves Day 3

Our third day of checking results of our look at pre-race market moves in handicap races at the Festival.

If you're not sure what this is about, here's some more info:

Today there were 10 official selections from the three handicaps, one of them won (Junior, at 100/30sp).

Over the course of the week so far there have been four wins from the eight handicaps raced, from 32 selections, and a loss at the moment to level stakes at SP of 3.2pts.

Let's see what day four brings!

No selections today

Just a quick note tonight to say we had no selections today. Junior was very close to being one in the Kim Muir, and obviously with hindsight we wish he had have been - didn't he win well! But keeping our discipline will always return greater profits in the long run, so that's what we'll do.

All the best for the final day of action tomorrow.

Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Pre-Race Market Moves Day 2

Just a quick look at day two of the pre-race market moves in handicap races at the Festival.

If you're not sure what this is about, here's some more info:

Day one produced 11.5pts of profit:

So on to today, and from the two handicaps at Cheltenham, there were nine official qualifiers - and in stark contrast to yesterday, not a single one placed!

There are three handicap races tomorrow of course, so it'll be interesting to see how things go then.

Quiet Wednesday

We had just the one selection in the end today, with another becoming a non-runner. Despite continuing to be nicely backed, he could only manage third.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.35 Huntingdon Willow Wren 1pt 5/1 Lads/Boylesports
4.55 Huntingdon Carys's Lad 1pt 6/1 Bet365/Boylesports/Paddy Power

Willow Wren went off at 100/30 in the end, but was being scrubbed along with a full circuit to run. In fairness he kept in touch, but could just never throw down a real challenge, finishing third, beaten about five lengths.

Carys's Lad was a non-runner.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP)

Willow Wren, 3rd/8, 5/1 --- 100/30
Carys's Lad, NR

Tuesday, 15 March 2011

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Pre-Race Market Moves Day 1

In our earlier post today we looked at whether late market moves at the Festival can in any way be useful to us for finding profits, given the length of time these markets are priced up ante-post.

We concluded that the following strategy produced a profit in the last five years - backing every horse in a festival handicap which shortened in price from opening show to SP, as long as the odds at the off are 20/1 or less.

Well, today, doing exactly that would have produced a profit at SP of 11.5pts.

We are by no means shouting from the rooftops and declaring this a fail safe route to profits, but it certainly is quite interesting (or at least to us market anoraks!).

There were thirteen qualifiers from the three handicaps.

In each of the handicaps this policy found the first two finishers, and in the case of the Novices Handicap at the end of the day, the first three (from four candidates, at SPs of 10/1, 7/1 and 13/2 - tricast paying £509.05!).

Perhaps tomorrow things will turn around, but food for thought anyway!

All the best,

The Market Examiner team.

Not quite our day

Two of our three selections traded odds on in running today, one at 1.04, but we've no winners to show for it.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.00 Cheltenham Maljimar 1pt 11/2 Bet365/Paddy Power
4.15 Sedgefield Yes Mate 1pt 13/2 Bet365/VC
4.55 Sedgefield Authentic Act 1pt 6/1 VC/Boylesports

It was a good day for value with all three selections starting shorter than we had.

Maljimar was cruising in the cross country race today, but, as his way at Cheltenham, he didn't find enough when push came to shove. It appears the in-running layers were aware of his possible failings at the business end, with him only being backed down to 1.54 in running despite appearing to be a very likely winner. In the end he didn't even get placed, losing third on the line.

That was quite frustrating, but not as frustrating as Yes Mate's run at Sedgefield, who jumped the last four clear after going off at 9/2. He had the race at his mercy, trading at 1.04 in running, but then just ran out of steam and almost slow motion style we could only watch as he was beaten close to the line.

Then Authentic Act came along, who started at 4/1 after touching 3/1 for a time. Something surely amiss here though, as he was immediately detached, receiving reminders and ended tailed off.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Maljimar, 4th/15, 11/2 --- 9/2
Yes Mate, 2nd/11, 13/2 --- 9/2
Authentic Act, 5th/6, 6/1 --- 4/1

It was interesting to look closely at the pre-race markets in the Festival handicaps, following our research into opening show - SP market moves, we'll post a seperate update looking at todays results.

Cheltenham pre-race market analysis

So it's finally here, Day One of the Festival! We can't wait.

This is an article we wrote recently for the newsletter, looking at the pre-race markets at the Festival, and as we thought our blog readers may also find it interesting, we thought we'd put it on here as well.

Good luck for the next four days - let battle commence!!


With the excitement of Cheltenham upon us we thought we would take a look at whether late market moves before each Festival race is off is any sort of guide to a horse’s possible success.

Considering that many of the Cheltenham races are priced up several months in advance, the market has a terrifically long time to become stable, established, and therefore, you would probably imagine, efficient. So when we hear Big Mac screaming at us that a 25/1 shot has been backed into 16s, should we take any notice? After all, the 6/1 favourite, drifting to 13/2, may have already been punted down from 25/1 a couple of weeks earlier..

We’ve looked at the price of every horse which has run at the Festival over the last five years, from opening show to SP. When a horse has touched a certain price or two, but returned to its original price for its SP, we have marked him or her as unchanged.

The findings are quite interesting.

From 2006-2010, 2,392 horses raced, and of these - 595 shortened in price (24.9%), 512 lengthened in price (21.4%) and 1,285 stayed the same (53.7%).

Of the 125 races, 46 were won by a horse which had shortened up (36.8%), 34 were won by a horse which had lengthened in price (27.2%) and the other 45 won by a horse whose odds had been unchanged (36%).

So we can see, that horses that shortened in the betting ring (and therefore almost certainly on the exchanges) just prior to the off, well outperformed those who drifted or stayed the same.

They won over 10% more of the races than they should have been entitled. Intriguingly, those horses which drifted also won slightly more than they should, while those whose odds which were stable underperformed.

So is there any way to make use of this information this year?

Well, of the 50 Festival handicaps in the last five years in which at least one horse shortened immediately pre-race, 22 were won by a horse which had shortened in the market (from 266 candidates). Backing each one blind at SP would leave us with a loss of -37.5pts. However, if we look more closely at the SPs of these winners, we find that only one came at 20/1 or bigger (Thousand Stars in last year’s County Hurdle (25s into 20s)). If we eliminate those bigger priced selections, we are left with 21 winners from 188 efforts (average win price 8.88/1), and a 19.5pt profit at industry SP, or 10.37% ROI.

If we look away from the handicap races, we are left with a much more sorry story. 329 selections were backed down in price pre-race, 24 won, with an average SP win price of 7.61/1, leaving the bank down by 122.42pts. It appears then that in these cases, horses shortening in price are not nearly as accurate a guide as to increased chances of success.

What about those festival “bankers”, opening up course at 2/1 or shorter, and backed further in before the off? There have been 16 such contenders, but only 5 had gone on to win, leaving us with a level stakes loss of 4.67pts. The list of infamous casualties include Detroit City (6/4 in the ’07 Champion Hurdle), Kauto Star (10/11 in the ’08 Gold Cup) and Voy Por Ustedes (4/5 in the ’09 Ryanair Chase).

So what is our conclusion? It appears that when the markets are extremely well formed, as they are for the principle races, then we can safely ignore any last minute price movements when it comes to aiding our selection process. But if you’re trying to solve the puzzle of the Grand Annual, Pertemps Final or such like, then it might be worth having a closer look at the pre-race market - there is likely to be a clue or two about!

Monday, 14 March 2011

The winning continues!

The red-hot form continues with one winner from our two selections today, with the other coming second.

If we were a racehorse the form of our last ten races would read: 1002101021 - at average odds of 7.85/1.

We are genuinely wondering if there is any sports advisory service in the country with a finer last few weeks, surely not!

Anyway this is what we advised this morning:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.00 Plumpton Petit Fleur 1pt 11/2 Bet365/Hills/Betfred
4.20 Taunton Decision 1pt 5/1 Paddy Power/Coral

Petit Fleur went off a very well backed 3/1 and ran well, going down by just over a couple of lengths in the end, after looking a possible winner at one stage.

Decision led throughout to score for the first time over hurdles, really enjoying the ground and readily winning by an impressive ten lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Petit Fleur, 2nd/6, 11/2 ---3/1
Decision, 1st/10, 5/1 --- 5/1

March is sitting with 66pts of profit now, with a return on investment of +194.12%.

2011 as a whole is 127.6pts up, from 150 bets, a return on investment of +77.8%.

You can join from as little as £13.33 a month, which is surely pretty amazing value.

Sunday, 13 March 2011

Yet another good day!

We had two selections today, and another good winner, with Won More Night coming home at 7/1.

Here's what we advised:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.20 Market Rasen Won More Night 1pt 7/1 Bet365/Hills/BetFred
5.10 Warwick Gainsboroughs Art 1pt 10/1Hills/Boylesports/Betfred (11/1 Stan James)

Won More Night seemed to refuse to settle, and was proving quite a tricky ride for Ian Popham, but he did really well to keep her out the back, and when he finally let her go she quickened brilliantly to win very easily indeed. We had the price again too, with the selection going off at 11/2 at SP. A great start to the day.

We were actually at Warwick today to watch a horse we have an interest in, so we were looking forward to watching Gainsborough's Art run. He was backed down to 6/1 at the off, but sadly the support this time wasn't justified with the horse putting in a bit of a shocker, trailing in 11th.

So another great day, with March now sitting with 62pts of profit, that's an ROI of 193.75%!

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Won More Night, 1st/8, 7/1 --- 11/2
Gainsborough's Art, 11th/14, 10/1 --- 6/1

Saturday, 12 March 2011

Another BRILLIANT day!

Another superb Saturday for us, with 22pts of profit from our 3pts staked with a brilliantly gutsy performance from Kempski at the veteran's favourite track.

February was a great month, but March is on its way to being even better.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.25 Sandown Appleaday 1pt 13/2 Bet365/Hills
4.30 Ayr Kempski 2pt 12/1 Lads
5.15 Chepstow Amble Forge 1pt 6/1 Bet365/VC/General BOG

Appleaday was supported into 9/2 at the off, and ran well, just not able to go with the winner and he ended up finishing second.

Then came Kempski, who loves Ayr and was very nicely backed down to 7/1 at the off. He came under pressure in the heavy ground some way out and looked a bit like a sitting duck, but one by one he beat the challengers off, including Circus Clown, who was looking for his third win in a row. A really gutsy performance for his sixth win at the track, and gave us 24pts of profit.

Finally, Amble Forge also ran quite nicely, despite drifting to 8s pre off. He looked quite a danger at one stage, moving up to challenge, but he wasn't able to quicken and ended up finishing just out of the frame in fourth.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Appleaday, 2nd/8, 13/2 --- 9/2
Kempski, 1st/8, 12/1 --- 7/1
Amble Forge, 4th/11, 6/1 ---- 8/1

Is there a service out there in better form than us at the moment? We're at the top of the last three month charts on - and that doesn't even include our March profits. At the prices we're charging surely joining in is a no-brainer!

Friday, 11 March 2011

Back in business

March bounced back to 34pts into profit with yesterday's winner, The Cayterers absolutely crusing home at Wincanton.

We had three in total:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Win The Cayterers 1 pt 7-1 B365
3.55 Folk Bearneen Boy 1 pt 11-2 B365, W Hill, BetFred, Boyle
4.50 Carl Frith 2 pt 12-1 W Hill

The Cayterers opened on course at 6s but drifted to 9/1 at the off, which only served to give us a couple more points of profit thanks to b.o.g. He was in almost complete command two out, and cruised clear to win very comfortably. A very nice start to the day.

No such luck with our next couple. Bearneen Boy continued to be supported into 4/1, but just never got into it. Frith could have been a big winner, but we'll never know as he unseated at the third fence.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

The Cayterers, 1st/10, 7/1 --- 9/1
Bearneen Boy, 5th/7, 11/2 --- 4/1
Frifth, UR/9, 12/1 --- 12/1

We didn't have any selections on Friday and we look forward to seeing what the weekend brings!

Wednesday, 9 March 2011

Poor couple of days

Well as we know this game has a habit of reminding us to keep our feet on the ground, and after a great spell including the brilliant 2pt 18/1 winner on Saturday, things have settled down somewhat.

The last couple of days has been poor in terms of results.

First of all, yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.00 Exeter Hawkaller 1pt 8/1 Bet365/Paddy Power/VC
3.50 Newcastle Hi Dancer 1pt 10/1 Boylesports 9/1 Hills/Paddy Power
5.00 Exeter Just Tootsie 1pt 8/1 Hills

Hawkaller drifted to 11/1 at the off and ran poorly, while Hi Dancer started at 10/1 and looked dangerous for a moment or two before being pretty readily beaten.

Just Tootsie rattled home to actually only be beaten a couple of lengths in the end in the now famous finale at Exeter, after going off at 10s. Many congrats to the jackpot winner by the way, a great story!

On to today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Fontwell Anyauldiron 1pt 11/1 Coral/Totesport (12/1 Stan James/BetFred)
3.20 Catterick Rhyton 2pt 12/1 Bet365/Hills
4.00 Fontwell Wardington Lad 1pt 7/1 Hills/Lads

Anyauldiron was very well backed at Fontwell on his first ever chase start, starting at 9/2. He actually ran pretty well, but some glaring jumping errors let him down and he ended up well beaten.

No such confidence in the end behind Rhyton, drifting to 14s and then never being in it at Catterick.

Wardington Lad at least started a point shorter than we had, but he didn't help his cause by running really wide, although we can hardly blame that for him fading away tamely in the end.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Tuesday March 9th

Hawkaller, 6th/12, 8/1 --- 11/1
Hi Dancer, 5th/7, 10/1 --- 10/1
Just Tootsie, 4th/13, 8/1 --- 10/1

Wednesday March 10th

Anyauldiron, 5th/7, 11/1 --- 9/2
Rhyton, 9th/15, 12/1 --- 14/1
Wardington Lad, 9th/10, 7/1 --- 6/1

Very disappointing to not have even one selection placed in the last couple of days, but after such a good run at least we have plenty of profits to play with. Hopefully our return to the winners enclosure won't be far away.

Monday, 7 March 2011

Not quite

A couple of seconds today for us, from our three selections.

They all came at Ffos Las, we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.50 F Las Glennacreim 1pt 11-2 general BOG
4.00 F Las Mae Cigan 1pt 8-1 VCBet, Coral
4.35 F Las Bob Casey 1pt 6-1 B365, Coral (7-1 S James)

Glennacreim won the race for second by well over ten lengths, but ran into a very comfortable winner in the shape of The Composer, after starting a shade longer than advised, at 6/1.

Mae Cigan continued to be supported into 13/2, but was hampered early on, didn't jump particularly well, and was well beaten.

Bob Casey only ran a couple of days ago, when he was pulled up after being badly hampered at Kempton. This was much better though, after going off at 5/1, he was the only one to really get close to the winner, but it was clear quite some way out he was unlikely to finish first. A good performance though, and another to finish well clear of third.

Confirmation of results with prices: (advised --- SP)

Glennacreim, 2nd/13, 11/2 --- 6/1
Mae Cigan, 5th/8, 8/1 --- 13/2
Bob Casey, 2nd/6, 6/1 --- 5/1

Sunday, 6 March 2011

Not so super Sunday

After yesterday's great success, no such luck with our two point selection today. Although we got terrific value, with Patrixtoo going off half the price we had, the run didn't really warrant the support. However we had a better effort from him than Gouranga who put in no sort of performance at all.

So we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.20 Sedgefield Gouranga 1pt 9/1 Bet365/Lads
4.50 Sedgefield Patrixtoo 2pt 12/1 Lads

Almost immediately from the off Gouranga, after starting at 10/1, was having to be urged along, and soon found herself detached. She was then taken out of contention by being hampered by a loose horse and promptly pulled up.

Patrixtoo was very well supported all the way down to 6/1 for his first race for about ten months. Just for a moment it looked like he may begin to pick them off, about four out, but then he clattered a hurdle and he immediately came under pressure and ended well beaten.

So three points lost, but still some 31pts of profit this weekend from our five selections, so plenty still to be cheerful about going into the working week!

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Gouranga, PU/12, 9/1 --- 10/1
Patrixtoo, 7th/14, 14/1 --- 6/1

Saturday, 5 March 2011

Super Saturday!!

An absolutely brilliant result today, with a 2pt 18/1 winner in the shape of Tobago Bay in the opener at Newbury. The other couple of performances were decent today, but we couldn't follow up, with one of them pulling up after being almost brought down when still prominent.

Yesterday we had a couple of selections where we got the price, but not the right result. Let's start there.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.30 Newbury Its Crucial 1pt 7-1 Lads, Betfred, Boyle
4.40 Newbury O Mally's Oscar 1pt 9-1 Boyle, 8-1 Lads, W Hill, Coral, B365

It's Crucial started at 11/2 but tired out of things, while O Mally's Oscar was there or thereabouts throughout, but couldn't go with them when it got serious, after going off at 13/2.

And then today we suggested:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.55 Newbury Tobago Bay 2pt 18/1 Bet365 (20/1 Betfred)
2.25 Newbury Ma Yahab 1pt 10/1 Bet365
3.15 Doncaster Minella Four Star 1pt 6/1 Lads/Bet365

Tobago Bay is our winner of the year so far, and we had the staking right too, a great result. He was always going well, and was right up there throughout, and quickened clear as they turned for home. He began to tire a little close to home, but he always had just about enough, and ended up winning by half a length. Going off at 12/1 too, with a late move before the off, showed we had the price as well. Naturally we'll mark up the win as an 18/1 winner, although many were able to get the 20/1 with Betfred.

Half an hour later, in the veterans chase, Ma Yahab ran well for a long time after going off a shade shorter than advised, at 9/1, but just didn't quite find enough from two out, to go down by about six lengths in the end.

Minella Four Star went off at 5/1 in the Grimthorpe and was close enough when he was badly hampered by a faller, and pulled up immediately afterwards. He was just beginning to be pushed along, but could yet have found a second wind so that was slightly disappointing, although it was unlikely he would have won.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Friday March 4th 2011

It's Crucial, 5th/8, 7/1 --- 11/2
O Mally's Oscar, 6th/12, 9/1 --- 13/2

Saturday March 5th 2011

Tobago Bay, 1st/13, 18/1 --- 12/1
Ma Yahab, 4th/11, 10/1 --- 9/1
Minella Four Star, PU/11, 6/1 --- 5/1

Today has pushed 2011 to a profit of more than 100pts - (102.6pts to be precise). That is an amazing 73.81% ROI, really pleasing.

We've had rushes like this many times before, and as we approach the flat season, with the ground also continuing to settle, we are extremely hopeful of things continuing to progress. Why not join up straight away?