Thursday, 31 March 2011

March Analysis

Another cracking month then, with 59pts of profit to show for our efforts, with a return on investment of +79.73%. Our win strike rate was actually slightly down on what we like to expect, at 13.85%, but our average win odds of 10.22/1 more than made up for it.

We beat SP again, on average by just over half a point on each bet, which would have been much more had it not been for a few very big drifters (one of which won, Meridiem from 8/1 out to 14/1). It was pleasing to see our winners outnumber our 2nds and 3rds, keeping things ticking over nicely. It's quite amazing to think that we had a run of 27 losers within the month - which according to statistics is one shy of what we should EVER have with a win strike rate of 13.85% from 65 bets. It's so important to take these runs as they come, and soak them up, not letting them affect you. We're hardened to losing sequences but appreciate it's not easy for some who aren't used to rolling with that sort of sequence. It's just a case of having a solid betting bank and absolute confidence in the long term.

Anyway just beginning to ramble now so let's take a look at the stats:

We had:

Bets: 65

Wins: 9 (13.85%)

2nds: 8 (12.30%)

3rds: 4 (6.15%)

Placed total: 21 (32.31%)

Average odds taken: 8.15/1

Average win odds: 10.22/1

Average SP: 7.60/1

Profit/Loss: +59pts

Return On Investment: +79.73%

All in all, excellent stuff. We can only hope April serves us equally as well. With the number of meetings due to rise considerably as the flat season gets in full swing, our number of bets will no doubt increase. An exciting few months ahead!


  1. Hi Sam,

    You must be absolutely delighted with how things are going. That's a heck of an roi you're hitting this year!

    I noticed your points tally for 2011 to date is just a couple short of the total for the whole of 2010. Is there anything that you can put your finger on as to why this might be, or is it just variance at work?

    I guess what I'm really asking is do you feel that 2011 is overperforming to date or was 2010 providing a relatively modest return compared to your long term expectations (although I'd take that level of 'modest' return any time!)?

    Hope things carry on for you as they have been,


  2. Hi Rowan,

    Many thanks for your comment.

    Yes, absolutely delighted with 2011 so far! Obviously very much hoping things continue.

    It's certainly an interesting question you pose. Basically, are we due a big downswing because of how well things are going in the year to date? Well only time will tell, naturally, but there are reasons to be optimistic that it shouldn't happen.

    First of all, while my general principles from studying the markets have been in place for many years, it is an evolving process. All sorts of things are constantly being assessed, including staking and horse/race profiles. We are doing things ever so slightly differently this year and I think that is helping with the returns.

    Also, in the last year or two, when the blog was just a blog, and I was just doing the bets for my own sake, I was possibly guilty of getting carried away with winning runs, loosening up criteria a tad and letting things roll. This absolutely wouldn't happen now, the reasoning behind selections have to be absolutely sound and I think that is also helping. This more professional process began when I started the free trial last April and has continued to sharpen up ever since.

    So, yes, I am confident of things continuing to progress nicely. I just hope the racing gods don't have any other ideas. The moment you think you have things cracked they can have other ideas, that's for sure!

    To keep the roi at its current level for the rest of the year would be quite an achievement, and realistically, pretty difficult. If it is to drop, however, to 20 or 30% roi then the returns should still be very kind to us, if only for the fact that we are likely to have more selections with the number of race meetings picking up. We'll see.

    Just to say, as well, that backing win only at odds of around 8/1 will always play havoc with variance, with its big upswings, and downswings. I know you've written on your fantastic blog about how this sort of "investing" doesn't sit too well with you.. I would argue though that if your betting bank is of a decent enough size (in terms of points, naturally), then it quite easy to learn to accept long losing runs. It's all about having total faith in those long term results.

    Hope that in some way answers your question, if you have any more please don't hesitate to ask.

    All the very best,

    Am off to see if you've updated your blog tonight yet!


  3. Evening, Sam.

    If you're "dropping" to an roi of 20-30%, well, that's a very nice place to be in. I could cope with drops like that!

    Seriously though, it's interesting what you say about tightening the criteria now you're running a professional service compared to a slightly more laissez-faire attitude when simply blogging. I can entirely understand why that might happen but it's great to think that a slight change in mindset is perhaps contributing to making a really good thing even better.

    I completely accept your argument (in fact there can be no 'argument' - what you say is 100% logical) about using a bank of the requisite size negating the worry associated with losing runs. This is a personal weakness I have and I'm aware it is a barrier to ultimately achieving what I want to achieve. I'm working on it and I have a plan. When it comes to fruition, you'll be the first to know, for reasons that you can probably guess.

    Anyway, fingers crossed for a decent weekend.