Tuesday, 3 March 2015

All the way winner

A great ride by the useful conditional Tom Bellamy saw our 9-2 selection Greybougg gallop away with the last at Exeter to put us into a profit for March after two losing bets to start the month. There was never any doubt as Bellamy drove his mount into a clear lead from the start and it was justification for the handicapper giving the horse what looked at first sight to be a stiff opening mark of 107.
  In his first seven outings the shortest price he had been was 33-1 and the last four runs saw two at 100-1 and two at 150-1. But the Nigel Hawke yard clearly had faith in him doing the business today and it was a canny move to bring in the experienced claimer Bellamy for the horse's first try in a handicap. The only horse who got anywhere near was Powderonthebonnet who was the subject of a late market move but it was the early money for Greybougg which was again significant.
 With our other selection a non runner it was a gratifying day as we get ever closer to Cheltenham. Missing from the Festival this year will be Sir Peter O'Sullevan who in his retirement as the Voice of Racing has attended each year but he spent his 97th birthday today in hospital where he has been for several weeks and apparently has been keeping up with the horses. A great man!

M of the Market Examiner Team.

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Monday, 2 March 2015

Great end to the Month


February ended with a great run for us, with winners at 8-1 and 5-2 before firing in two 4-1 winners on Saturday to make it four winners out of the final six selections for the month. March opened with a setback but hopefully things will be back on track soon.
  That now gives us four profitable months in a row and leaves the betting bank in a healthy state going into Cheltenham. I've only had a couple of ante posts this year - Many Clouds in the Gold Cup and Mr Mole in the Champion Chase - bur I have a couple I fancy, the principal one at the moment being All Yours in the Fred Winter. I saw this one win at Taunton and Paul Nicholls then stepped him up in class markedly for the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton which is always a good trial for the Triumph Hurdle.
  Beltor won that race in impressive style but All Yours was nine lengths clear of the third horse and the Fred Winter looks a much better option than the Triumph and at 14-1 with Hills and Coral he is definitely on the radar.
  The bookies will have so many offers flying around during Cheltenham it is tough to know whether to go in now on one you fancy or wait till the day. The market there is so strong that a lot of horses drift on the day but the age-old question is what will mine do?
  I will be going there on the Tuesday and if I have a winning day may extend that to the Wednesday. In the old days I used to go for the three days but since it's gone to four and the stamina is not what it was, I am as happy to watch most of it on the telly.
  Cheltenham has been good to us at the Market Examiner on occasions and you can bet your bottom dollar we will doing our best to come up with one or two during the week!
 M of the Market Examiner Team

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Sunday, 22 February 2015

Won like an odds on shot


A convincing winner for us yesterday after two setbacks when Comeonginger led from start to finish and ran the legs off everything else in the opener at Kempton and bring our recent record to five winners out of the last eight.
  There are plenty of odds on shots who are nowhere near as convincing so to have secured 9-2 or 4-1 was most gratifying. In fact, once he jumped the first two and was looking so fresh and fluent I went in again myself at just over 2-1 and apart from when Richard Johnson gave him a breather going to the final bend there never looked to be a danger. It was a perfectly paced ride from a man who will be eyeing the jockeys' title next year with AP no longer around.
  I was very impressed with Beltor's win in the Adonis Hurdle and it must be fantastic for Robert Stephens to have such a horse in his small yard. The going was soft and sticky but Beltor made it look almost like good ground as he skipped clear. The Triumph Hurdle always takes a lot of winning and Peace and Co and Hargam have already shown their class but Beltor will be going there with a live chance, I would think. He is currently a 10-1 shot and at that price I won't be going in ante post but definitely one to bear in mind on the day.
  Here's to a good week's punting ahead!
M of the Market Examiner Team


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Tuesday, 17 February 2015

Four out of Five

Cresswell Breeze has just blown in for us at Taunton and while not a great price - 5-2 adv and SP - she maintained our great run since Saturday with four of the last five selections going in.
  A slow week ended in great style on Saturday with Lie Forrit putting in an incredibly gutsy performance to win the National trial at Haydock. Put up in the morning at a readily available 12-1, Lie Forrit went off at 8s and was in the firing line throughout. He took it up three from home and saw off all comers apart from a resilient Harry The Viking who then took the lead on the run-in. Our old boy, trying 3m5f for the first time, knuckled down though and in a stirring finish got back up on the line to win by a head, with Monbeg Dude back in 3rd beaten by 19 lengths. The Scottish National is now the target for Linda Russell's rejuvinated 11yo and he must have a chance if he maintains his enthusiasm. It made for a special day, with my son taking his 5yo daughter for her first match at our club, Plymouth Argyle, and the three of us watched them win 2-0 having seen the Haydock race via the mobile.
  Sunday brought us back to earth with Macetown Gale well out of it at in a slog at Ffos Las but on Monday we shot back to form with both selections going in at Carlisle. Gold Futures (7-1adv, 6-1SP) looked to be out of it coming to the last but with half a furlong to run Brian Harding had him gunning down the leaders and he won going away from the well backed favourite Upswing, with AP on board. Then came Knock A Hand and Sam Twiston Davies had him ahead from the start and he won with something in hand at 4-1, having been put up at 6s in the morning.
  With Cresswell Bay winning easily at Taunton we are on a good run and let's hope it can continue!
M of the Market Examiner Team



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Thursday, 12 February 2015

Different jocks

In the week when AP McCoy announced his imminent retirement we saw a performance from a jockey which epitomised  the McCoy spirit and another in the same race by a jockey which showed why someone like AP is head and shoulders above the average.
  Unfortunately the latter jockey, Noel Fehily, was on our selection while James Best was the former who showed a never-say-die attitude to get Strawberry Hill home at Fontwell. By contract, Fehily seemed resigned to Attimo becoming detached well out and only when the horse started running past tiring rivals approaching the second last did he think that perhaps it was worth getting him to make an effort but by then it was far too late and he came home third behind Best on Strawberry Hill and amateur Tabatha Worsley  on Sitting Back.
  Would a McCoy-style rousting along of Attimo have given him a chance of victory? Difficult to know but to my eye the horse was far from a no-hoper when Fehily appeared to go easy on him from some way out.
 A decent run from our selection Dainty Diva on Monday, with Matt Griffiths biding his time and sitting in behind as Pembroke House, the subject of a late plunge in the market, set a very strong pace. Unfortunately the SP favourite Catchintime was also conservatively ridden and as that one and Dainty Diva took over approaching the last, it was the favourite who stayed on strongest to win. Pembroke House faded out of it to foil the late money punt.
  On Tuesday we were on the well beaten third Bryden Boy at Ayr and yesterday we had no selection but a 3-1 winner out of two entrants in the "Of Interest" section so it has been a frustrating and somewhat unrewarding week so far.
  Hopefully some winners to come before too long to bolster the Cheltenham betting bank!
M of the Market Examiner Team



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Sunday, 8 February 2015

Goodbye AP

I was sitting in the stands watching my team yesterday when I watched Mr Mole win for me on the mobile. What I didn't know was that immediately afterwards AP had announced his retirement but my dear wife sitting at home had seen it on C4 racing and immediately texted the news over.
  Like all other racing fans I was shocked at the news but grateful to be given the notice so we can relish McCoy's final months all the more. I feel enormously privileged, as I'm sure many others do, to have been about to witness the AP's career. I can well remember standing in a bookmaker's in Hungerford in the early 90s and turning to an old boy to tell him: "This lad is going to be something special," after a youthful McCoy booted one home. I have thought the same of other young jockeys - James Doyle was one - but McCoy was extra special. We will all miss him and just hope against hope that he finishes his career safely.
  A great card at Exeter today but unfortunately I won't be able to keep an eye on it and will have to rely on RUK replays later. Melodic Rendezvous is one of my favourite hurdlers and will hopefully signal his well being now chasing and we also have our one selection for the day going for us at the Devon track.
  Hopefully the cold snap is now behind us and we can get back to a full fixture list in the week ahead so happy punting one and all!
M of the Market Examiner Team

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Friday, 30 January 2015

Nothing doing

Our only selection yesterday looked hopeful but after making progress four out, Flying Light's effort petered out and he came home fourth. The weather has taken its toll again today with just Chepstow on as a turf meeting and nothing to excite us there.

All weather action at Lingfield and tonight at Wolverhampton and while I don't follow the sand, I always look out for when Luke Morris has just one or two rides. Yesterday he was out of luck with plentiful rides but on Wednesday he went to Chelmsford for one with won at 7-2 and then on to Kempton where he won with one of two rides, again at 7-2. He has a full book of rides at Lingfield today but nothing at Wolves so I won't be doing anything today.

Best of luck if getting involved today.
M of the Market Examiner Team


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Wednesday, 28 January 2015

When 6-1 about a 16-1 shot is value

Getting 6-1 about a 16-1 shot is not the general idea but getting 6-1 about something bowling along in front and not looking like stopping makes sense and that is how things worked out for me at Taunton yesterday.
  Having a slight fancy for Tornado in Milan I was not confident to lay down money but when Paul Maloney had him settled in front and clearly going better than anything else, I whipped out the mobile and got on at 6s. The price was gone seconds later and with Maloney doing the ultra confident looking between the legs routine to see the opposition, it was all looking good. He came home the easiest winner of the day and the pain of missing the 16-1 was eased somewhat.
  There was further reason for cheer when a morning gamble was swerved as a selection and was pulled up and with one of my only two other bets coming in at 4-1 it was a good day all round. I also had a most interesting chat with a chap in the Owners and Trainers bar who was at Taunton to seal a deal to sell a horse he had bred to Philip Hobbs. He had just celebrated his 80th birthday but was in splendid form, telling me that he had bred his first group winner last year, the Richard Hannon trained Flying Childers winner Beacon. He forecast that as a three-year-old he will be one of the top sprinters of 2015. He also has horses with Oliver Sherwood and confirmed the delight the whole yard felt at the weekend performance of Many Clouds, which has put him near the top of the pecking order for the Gold Cup and I think there is still value in him at the 10-1 available in places.
  Unfortunately nothing going for us today as the selection was declared a non-runner just as the alert went out. A horse like this can be worth looking out for next time as there have been occasions when a well backed horse is pulled because the connections have not been able to get on themselves and want to save the ammo. I'm not saying that is necessarily the case here,.....
  Plenty of racing ahead today so good luck to all those getting involved.
M, of the Market Examiner Team.

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Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Blogging Again

The Guvnor has been on for ages that we need to sort the blog out but no-one has taken it on. So it falls to me to get it going for the first time in months but as I'm off to Taunton today it will just be a brief update before hitting the road.

Unfortunately nothing for us today, which is a shame as we would have liked to carry on the good work after Sirop de Menthe fairly trotted up at Plumpton yesterday after being put up in the morning at around 8-1. This is an ex Tim Vaughan horse and there are not many of his who go and  on and do better elsewhere so hats off to the Sue Gardner team. Lucy Gardner never looked in any doubt as the horse, which had been prone to jumping to its right, stayed straight as an arrow and afterwards Sue told Tommo on ATR that Lucy had said she would win, which was obviously the reason for the early morning confidence. The horse went off at 6-1 and and was 13 lengths clear at the line.

In the past week we have had winners at 5-1, 7-2 (twice) and 3-1 to add to yesterday's 8-1 so we are on a good run. Let's hope we can get back to business tomorrow.


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Tuesday, 11 March 2014

Our STUNNING Cheltenham record

So we're here, the eve of another Festival and we can't wait!!!

Our record at Cheltenham over the last couple of years has been absolutely superb, with two massive priced winners in each of the last two years from just eight selections.

They were - Rajdhani Express last year, at 25/1 in the Novice Handicap chase on the opening day, and then the year before Son of Flicka, also at 25/1, in the Coral Cup.

Safe to say we will be doing everything we can to tickle out another massive priced winner this year.

Almost incredibly, you can get our Cheltenham Festival picks for FREE by signing up to our free 30 day trial.

Head to http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-nowpage/ to sign up.

All the best for a brilliant four days, let's hope we can all come out on top.

Sunday, 2 February 2014

About to enter our "golden" period & our free trial is still available

Exciting times at TME towers as we begin what has been for the last few years our best few months of the year.

Here are the stats for the 20 months from February - June for 2010-2013 (figures taken directly from racingproofing.com)

Bets: 1176
Stakes: 1294
Profit: +331.29pts
ROI: +25.6%

Of these 20 months, 15 have ended in profit.

We're as certain as we can be that it's more than just coincidence, and the fact that every year this four month spell, for each of the last four years, has returned a profit is certainly cause for optimism.

The reasons? Well these are some of our theories:

  • Ground generally speaking settles down
  • Jumpers who have been campaigned on the wrong ground improving when things get quicker
  • We have a particularly good record at the Cheltenham festival
  • Well handicapped types on the flat who have improved for a winter behind them
  • Exciting two year olds are expected to impress and duly deliver

As for this year, we moved into profit for this particular Feb-June period today, after Broughton won today very easily at Musselburgh for us.

We're still offering our completely free 30 day trial - which if you wish to continue turns into a subscription of just £14.99/month. There could be no better time to get involved, click here for more and we look forward to hopefully welcoming you soon.

Sunday, 26 January 2014

Positive steps & FREE 30 day trial

Since November 2013, we have been firing out our selections an hour earlier than previously, around 10am rather than 11am.

The results, since that change took place, are as follows:

Selections: 86
Wins: 14
Strike Rate: 16.28%
Average odds: 7.53/1
Average win odds: 7.04/1
Edge/ROI: +14.63%
Profit/Loss: +12.58pts

In other words, subscribers following our selections at just £15 a point would be sitting with a decent £188.70 profit since November 1st.

Our latest winner was our only selection on Saturday, Lac Fontana, who won the last at Cheltenham easily, advised at 7/1.

Over such a relatively short space of time, actual results can of course be a little misleading. Much more important, is whether we are beating SP in greater amounts than previously - one of the main reasons behind going to an earlier start time. We're delighted to say the answer is yes.

Selections have been advised at an average of 7.53/1 - and the SP has been an average of just 5.61/1. Also, just 18 selections have gone off at a bigger priced than advised. Early days of course, but highly highly encouraging, because as we know if keep locking in those prices, the profits will take care of themselves. BSP is also being comfortably bettered, with that average sitting at 6.42/1, boosted by two or three big drifters.

To mark these very positive steps, we have decided to introduce for a limited time a brilliant offer - a completely free 30 day trial so you can see for yourself how things are going for us. Should you wish to continue with us, the subscription will turn into a monthly subscription of just £14.99.

You've really nothing to lose, of course you don't even have to place the bets yourself for the 30 days, just sit back and watch how we get on. We're confident you'll be pleased with what you see - hopefully good returns but at the very least a regular edge borne out from grabbing those early moves early enough to lock in the value. If we get the value, the winners will ultimately take care of themselves.

Click here to take advantage of the 30 day free trial.

Thursday, 28 November 2013

Superb 20/1 winner

A terrific result today with Sylvan Legend doing the business in grand style after being put up at a massive 20/1 this morning. Caroline Keevil's 5yo went off as short as 4/1, a real old fashioned gamble, congratulations to connections. Always prominent, he was asked for an effort three out, and just looked like he might be tapped for toe, but he stayed on well and took the lead at the last and powerfully kept the 11/8 fav at bay in second, winning by three quarters of a length.

This month we have seen are fair share of short-priced in-running efforts getting turned over, since our last update we've seen 1.31, 1.55 and 1.51 shots all beaten, adding to, earlier in the month losers having been as short as 1.54 and 1.18, so when Sylvan Legend was being asked to get on and win his race we were half fearing the worst, but credit to him he kept galloping all the way to the line. There should be more to come.

Other notable performers since our last update, Pod was beaten a short-head at Taunton, while Elite Beneficial went down by half a length.

The performance of our "of interests" are also worthy of a mention, they've been winning regularly (another one today, at an advised price of 2/1). This was a good email we received from a new subscriber the Saturday just gone, after three mentions out of three won at advised prices of 7/1, 7/2 and 7/1.

"Excellent 2nd day did a small £2 patent on your 3 of interest !! £739 retuned well done can't wait for your proper selections 

Many Thanks"

Great to hear, and this isn't the first time that our mentions have hit some decent returns for those who like to play their multiples. It also makes us think that we have perhaps tightened our criteria too hard, to the detriment of our long-term results. This could change going forward, we're researching this issue. 

So here are the results since our last update:

Date
Course
Selection
Result
Lowest in-running price
Advised Price
SP
14/11/2013
Taunton
Pod
2/8
1.55
9
6
15/11/2013
Newcastle
Dingo Bay
'F/6
2.58
7.5
5.5
18/11/2013
Plumpton
Carpincho
'3/7
1.5
7
5.5
20/11/2013
Warwick
Elite Beneficial
'2/6
1.31
6.5
3.5
21/11/2013
Market Rasen
Detour Ahead
'3/6
3
6
5
22/11/2013
Ffos Las
Raduis Bleu
'3/4
3.2
4
3.75
24/11/2013
Exeter
Notarfbad
'3/8
2.56
5.5
4
27/11/2013
Fontwell Park
Whipcrackaway
'4/8
10
7.5
9
28/11/2013
Taunton
Gingers Reflection
'6/7
9.8
19
11
28/11/2013
Taunton
Sylvan Legend
'1/14
n/a
21
5
20/1 winners won't come along every day, but at that sort of price they don't need to, but let's hope we can follow up with another winner or two tomorrow.

Wednesday, 13 November 2013

Results Update

Two winners since our last results update, from eight selections, and two others placed including a second which traded at 1.18.

Charlie Bucket at Hexham, and Buxom at Huntingdon yesterday were our winners, leaving us nicely in profit for the month by 7.5pts.

It was Charlie Bucket's first win at the 26th time of asking, at the age of 10, which again proved how accurate market support can be for even those horses which have shown little form previously (at least certainly for around 18 months in this case).

Buxom had previously won twice in bumpers, and this was the Jamie Snowden 6yo's first win over timber. Given a cracking ride by Brendan Powell Jr he led from fairly early in the contest and while challengers seemed to be lining up, was driven out all the way to win in the end fairly comfortably by a length.

Wychwoods Brook traded at shorter than 1/5 but wasn't helped by stumbling a couple of fences from home and always was just held by the winner, going down by just over a length.

Things going well, and we look forward to tomorrow.


Date
Course
Selection
Result
Lowest In-Running Price
Advised Price
SP
06/11/2013
Warwick
Tony Dinozzo
5th/8
7
10
9
07/11/2013
Musselburgh
Bogside
4th/9
6
5
5.5
08/11/2013
Hexham
Charlie Bucket
1st/10
n/a
8.5
6
09/11/2013
Wincanton
Mister Snowball
6th/8
4
10
5
10/11/2013
Ffos Las
Wychwoods Brook
2nd/8
1.18
7
4.33
11/11/2013
Southwell
Midnight Choice
3rd/6
2.94
8
6
11/11/2013
Carlisle
Wicklow Lad
3rd/8
7.4
7
9
12/11/2013
Huntingdon
Buxom
1st/5
n/a
5.5
4