Friday, 29 June 2012

Fantastic Fox

A cracking winner today in the shape of The Nifty Fox at Musselburgh, getting us right back on track after what's been a quite frustrating few days.

We'll start our latest look at results yesterday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.50        Yarmouth              Kashmiri Star                  1pt                           6/1+generally inc. 13/2 PP/Bluesq 7/1 Hills/Coral/Boyles 15/2 SportingBet

Kashmiri Star went off at 13/2 and ran pretty well, but just not finding enough going into the final furlong, finishing fourth.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00         Doncaster             March                          1pt                           6/1+generally inc. 13/2 BetVictor/SportingBet
3.45         Musselburgh         The Nifty Fox               1pt                           7/1+generally inc. 15/2 PP/Totesport/BetFred 8/1 Hills/Bet365/StanJames/SkyBet

Racecourse debutant March traded at 1/3 and looked to be crusing just over a furlong from home. But looks proved deceptive this time as she couldn't quicken as well as some others around her, and she finished fourth, after starting a well backed 7/2 for Marco Botti. She should be winning soon though.

Then came The Nifty Fox, who was given a mark of 90 when he last won nearly three years ago. Racing off 67 today, he'd been suggesting a return to winning ways was getting closer recently and there was plenty of confidence in the market that today should be the day, going off at 5/1. He was ridden just off the leading group and quickened nicely when asked for an effort, taking up the lead in the final furlong and battled to a deserved success by a neck. Great stuff.

Summary of Results:
Thursday 28th June 2012:
Kashmiri Star, 4th/11, 13/2 --- 13/2

Friday 29th June 2012:

March, 4th/13, 6/1 --- 7/2
The Nifty Fox, 1st/8, 8/1 --- 5/1

Always nice to get a Friday winner going into the weekend. Let's hope we can end the month in good style tomorrow!

Wednesday, 27 June 2012

Results catch up

High time for a look back at the last few results. No returns, with the closest we came being a second yesterday, and we look for a return to the winners' enclosure tomorrow.

On Sunday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.30         Hexham                Acknowledgement         1pt                         5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Coral/SkyBet

Who was a non-runner.. and then turned out the next day, when he was a selection for us once again:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.00         Chepstow            Jack My Boy                 1pt                           6/1+generally inc. 13/2 BetVIctor/Totesport/PP/BetFred&others 7/1 Boyles/SkyBet 
8.20         Thirsk                  Acknowledgement         1pt                           6/1 generally 13/2 Hills/Boyles
A fair bit of confidence behind Jack My Boy who went off at 5/1, but despite there in contention two out, he found little and finished a fair way back in sixth.

And here was Acknowedgement again, this time on the flat and again lots of early market confidence about him on his return from a lengthy lay-off,  although he drifted a point to 6/1 at SP. Confidence though was seemingly a bit misplaced, as although Philip Kirby's 10yo was staying on when he met some trouble in running, he finished well beaten.

On Tuesday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.45         Brighton               Amba                            1pt                           7/1 generally 15/2 Bet365
6.20         Newbury             Khamseen                      1pt                           9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/Totesport/PP/Boyles&
others 11/2 Coral/SkyBet
9.05        Newbury              Brandywell Boy              1pt                           10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Hills/Totesport/PP/Stan James/BetFred

Amba was the one that got away in our last little group of runners. Really well backed, into 11/4 at the off, she just found one too good, after losing the lead from two furlongs out. She kept on all the way to the line, but couldn't bridge the gap, going down by 1 3/4 lengths.

Not much to be said for our Newbury selections. Both drifted and were well beaten. Khamseen started at 9/1 and finished last, while Brandywell Boy faired somewhat better, but was never going to trouble the leaders, after going off at 14/1.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.45         Worcester            Qulinton                       1pt                          4/1+generally inc. 9/2 BetVictor/Stan James&others 5/1 Bet365/PP/Boyles/SkyBet

Qulinton was weak on course, going off at 7/1 for David Pipe, and while he was staying on at the end, he never had the pace to make up the ground needed, beaten around six lengths in the end.

Summary of Results:

Sunday 24th June 2012:

Acknowledgement NR

Monday 25th June 2012:

Jack My Boy, 6th/10, 13/2 --- 5/1
Acknowledgement, 8th/15, 13/2 --- 6/1,

Tuesday 26th June 2012:

Amba, 2nd/8, 15/2 --- 11/4
Khamseen, 8th/8, 11/2 --- 9/1
Brandwell Boy, 7th/12, 11/1 --- 14/1

Wednesday 27th June 2012:

Qulinton, 4th/12, 5/1 --- 7/1

So a disappointing few days, but at our average 2012 price of more than 7.5/1 it needs just the one winner to spin these defeats into profit, let's hope we can get it tomorrow!

Saturday, 23 June 2012

June further into profit

Another profitable day, as June reaches a new high, and in fact 2012 as well, with Tickle Time's success at Ayr. Dunaden could easily have won for us at Royal Ascot had he not had his path blocked at least twice. But what drama in between with Black Caviar narrowly holding on, the global racing world held its breath for those last few strides didn't it, thank goodness she had her head in front on the line, as to lose in such circumstances would have been awful.

Anyway today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.05        Ascot                    Dunaden                        1pt                          11/2 generally
4.05        Ayr                       Tickle Time                    1pt                          4/1+generally inc. 9/2 SportingBet 5/1 Bet365/Boyles/SkyBet 11/2 Totesport/Betfred

Dunaden (9/2sp) was our first Royal Ascot selection of the week, and whether he would have been a winner with a clear run is open to debate, but certainly there's no debate that Lemaire managed to get last year's Melbourne Cup winner into all sorts of trouble in running at least twice, not least approaching the final furlong when he was beginning to powerfully stay on. The way he quickened again once in the clear and closed on Sea Moon close home certainly gives us thought that he may have been a touch unlucky, but we'll never know.

An hour later Tickle Time, who was very well supported in the morning, went off at 7/2 and ran out a convincing winner by more than a length. Always prominent on his debut he was asked to go and win his race just over a furlong from home, and he did so quickening into the lead and never looked like being caught. Annoyingly there was a 10p R4 because of a non-runner, but still a good result and the value still had come off time.

Summary of Results

Dunaden, 2nd/12, 11/2 --- 9/2
Tickle Time, 1st/8, 4.95/1 --- 7/2

So June continues in an upward curve and we look forward to seeing if more profits can be locked in before the month is out.

Friday, 22 June 2012

Will Black Caviar mind "soft" in the description tomorrow?

Not a great deal to report from today, with a disappointing effort from the selection which ran, and the other was a non runner. Of more interest is a report from down under on whether Black Caviar will be inconvenienced at all by the cut in the ground tomorrow. It follows below.

First up a quck look at today's runner, we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

7.00         Newmarket          Sharjah                         1pt                            10/1 Bet365 11/1 12/1 Hills/Coral/PP/BetVictor&
8.05         Newmarket          Greensward                  1pt                             7/1 generally 8/1 Stan James
Sharjah was nicely backed on his debut, going off at 4/1 (although the short-priced favourite came out with what would have been a 40p r4, so we'll count Sharjah's early price as 7.2/1 for settlement purposes). Either way, r4 or not mattered not as he began struggling all too early in the driving rain and finished well back.

Greensward was a non-runner.

Summary of Result:

Sharjah, 9th/11, 7.2/1 --- 4/1
Greensward NR

Now, one of our subscribers is an Australian who goes by the name of Lucky, who actually runs his own tipping service highlighted through his blog

I asked Lucky whether all the rain we've been having here would hamper Black Caviar's chances tomorrow in any way (although actually the forecast tonight and tomorrow doesn't look so bad now). Anyway, it seems not - this is what he told me:

       there is absolutely no worries regarding running on a wet track. I saw her trial here at Cranbourne, in an absolute bog, and she glided thru it. I've heard Moody also say she is very adapt in the wet. Even her race motion is that of a wet tracker. She has never run on a wet track here, because we had about a 6 year drought and rarely did we have wet tracks, aside from winter, but that is when the good horses are out.

       The barrier is also a huge help, Nolan will be able to dictate from there and not be cluttered up. Sources close to the stable reckon Moody has told the owners that she has never been as fit as this run. If that's the case look out. Mind you, they never let her go. One time Nolen sooled her a bit when she had the race well and truly won, and Moody tore strips off him. He's never done it again. If he did what Frankel's jockey did he would be sacked off her.

Interesting stuff, really hope she canters to victory. She's 1/4 tonight, and it'll be interesting to see if she goes off shorter come post time, can't wait to see her in action.

Thursday, 21 June 2012

Very nice Venetian

A good day today, thanks to Venetian Lad's easy win at Fontwell. It was a shame we couldn't build on it tonight, partly perhaps because the weather turned so nasty at Fontwell at Ffos Las - with Sunny Spells withdrawn because of the ground after well backed for much of they day.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.10         Warwick             Tahnee Mara                  1pt                            6/1+generally 13/2 Hills/Totesport&others 7/1 Coral/BetVictor/SkyBet
5.45         Fontwell               Venetian Lad                 1pt                            6/1+generally inc. 7/1 Totesport/Coral/BetFred
8.30         Fontwell               Guns Of Love                1pt                            4/1 Bet365/PP/BetVictor/Boyles 9/2 SkyBet
9.00         Fontwell               Sunny Spells                  1pt                            5/1+generally inc. 6/1 Totesport/BetFred
9.20         Ffos Las               Bromhead                     1pt                            5/1 Hills/BetVictor/PP/Totesport/

Tahnee Mara went off at 6/1 and never really looked like getting involved.

Not the same can be said for Venetian Lad, who travelled nicely throughout, took it up approaching two out and never looked in any danger as he skipped clear comfortably to win by 15 lengths, fantastic stuff. Lydia Richards' 7yo went off a well backed 7/2 so plenty of confidence well rewarded.

Guns Of Love went off at 6/1 and gradually faded out of things towards the end.

Sunny Spells was withdrawn not long before the off in the 9.00, with the ground being blamed.

It was virtually impossible to see anything in the last at Ffos Las tonight given how gloomy and wet it was, although Bromhead did his best to get himself noticed, bolting off into a big lead which sapped all energy out of him and he was beaten by the time they got to three out. He started at 4/1.

Summary of Results:

Tahnee Mara, 8th/10, 7/1 --- 6/1
Venetian Lad, 1st/10, 7/1 --- 7/2
Guns Of Love, 5th/9, 4/1 --- 6/1
Sunny Spells NR
Bromhead, 5th/7, 5/1 --- 4/1

So a good day and we look forward to seeing if we can follow up tomorrow!

Wednesday, 20 June 2012

Midweek update

What a great Royal Ascot so far, and how impressive was Frankel. Sensational. No selections for us there yet these last couple of days, and not a great deal to say about our three picks.

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00         Thirsk                  Amazing Blue Sky          1pt                            6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Totesport 7/1 Coral
7.00          Brighton        
      Smoky Cloud                 1pt                            9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/BlueSq

Amazing Blue Sky was well supported into 4/1 and ran well, but just didn't quite see out the trip, finishing fourth, beaten a couple of lengths.

Smoky Cloud was up there, but weakened out of things coming to the final furlong after going off at 13/2.

On to today and we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
6.15         Worcester             Brunston                        1pt                          10/1+ generally inc. 11/1 Lads 12/1 Bet365

Brunston went off at 12/1, and was struggling a fair way from home, ending up well beaten.

Summary of Results:

20th June 2012

Amazing Blue Sky, 4th/8, 7/1 --- 4/1
Smoky Cloud, 7th/10, 5/1 --- 13/2

21st June 2012

Brunston, 10th/13, 12/1 --- 12/1

On to tomorrow!

Monday, 18 June 2012

Take A Bow Jason Hart

A cracking winner today with Watts Up Son doing the business in grand style at Carlisle.

Let's start our latest look back on Saturday, where we had one selection:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.05         Hexham               Royal Curtsy                  1pt                           13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Hills/Bet365/BetVictor/Totesport&others 15/2 Stan James

Royal Curtsy (15/2 SP) was an excellent 2pt winner for us last month, and for a long time it looked as if she may do the business again as she bowled along nicely in front. But whether it was the heavy ground, longer trip, or maybe a combination of the two she emptied out with a couple of hurdles left and finished well behind in fourth.

We had no selections on Sunday so on to today and we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.45        Carlisle                   Watts Up Son              1pt                          7/1+generally inc. 15/2 BetVictor 8/1 Coral/SkyBet
9.10        Windsor                 Calculated Risk            1pt                          11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Hills/PP

Watts Up Son was given a terrific ride by 7lb claimer Jason Hart. Bounced out of the gates, he was sent off into a good lead and after slowing things down a little as they approached the final bend, he pushed on again and rode all the way to win by more than a length with the result never in much doubt. There were suggestions from some that he was a doubtful stayer, but there was decent support around this morning for this one and connections obviously knew that he would get the 9 1/2 furlongs well, and it paid off, great stuff.

It would have been great had Calculated Risk been able to follow up, but despite being backed into 9/2 at the off, it didn't happen. It was a messy race with Willie Musson's 3yo unbalanced at times, and then short of room for a good while, but ultimately no real excuses and while he was a bit unlucky not to finish a little closer he was never really going to challenge the winner.

Summary of Results:

16th June 2012

Royal Curtsy, 4th/8, 7/1 --- 8/1

17th June 2012

No selections

18th June 2012

Watts Up Son, 1st/11, 7/1 --- 8/1
Calculated Risk, 6th/10, 6/1 --- 9/2

So after a flurry of second placed finishes, good to get one in front again. Roll on Royal Ascot!

Friday, 15 June 2012

Running well

Two more good showings from our last three picks and if we keep up that level of performance we'll get back to the winners' enclosure soon.

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.05        Nottingham           Reginald Claude             1pt                          5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Hills/BetVictor/Totesport/Betfred
5.45        Nottingham           Barachiel                        1pt                          5/1 generally 11/2 Totesport/Betfred

Reginald Claude put in a solid effort, despite drifting to 8/1 at the off. He was always on the premises, and kept on at the end, but couldn't live with the pace of the front three, finishing more than 3 lengths back in fourth.

Barachiel ran well, but just didn't get first run on the eventual winner who grabbed the initiative pushing into a strong lead in a really positive bit of jockeyship by Robert Winston. Ours was the only one in the field to throw down a challenge, but couldn't quite make up the ground going down just over two lengths, well clear of third, after starting at 5/1.

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30         York                    Silver Blaze                   1pt                          7/1+generally inc. 15/2 BetVictor/Boyles/SkyBet

We lost out again to a top ride today, when Silver Blaze was mowed down late on by the Ryan Moore ridden favourite. Silver Blaze ran a cracker, taking things up going into the final furlong, and trading at around 1/3 in running, but Moore's ride Valiant, who was under pressure a long way from home, eventually picked up the pace and finished strongly and Alan Swinbank's 3yo couldn't fend him off.

Thursday 14th June 2012:

Reginald Claude, 4th/10, 11/2 --- 8/1
Barachiel, 2nd/11, 5/1 --- 5/1

Friday 15th June 2012:

Silver Blaze, 2nd/5, 7/1 --- 13/2

It's been a quiet week so far in terms of selections, with just the seven going for us - but they're continuing to run well, with four of them finishing second, and let's hope we can get back on the winning trail again tomorrow!

Wednesday, 13 June 2012

Wednesday update

No returns today for win-only backers, although we went close at Hamilton tonight.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.20         Haydock              Naseem Alyasmeen        1pt                          5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads&others 6/1 Bet365/Coral/Boyles/StanJames/
4.40         Yarmouth             Petrarchan                      1pt                          6/1 generally
7.50         Hamilton               Hail Bold Chief               1pt                          4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Lads/PP 5/1 Hills/Totesport/BetVictor&

Naseem Alyasmeen went off at 13/2 and for a moment or two looked to be travelling best of all about two out, but she didn't quite see the trip out in the end, finishing fourth.

Petrachan was well backed this morning on his handicap debut up in trip, but a little weak on course, going off at 8/1. He was slowly away and couldn't muster much of an effort, fading out of contention late on.

And then, on to tonight's selection with Hail Bold Chief well backed into 11/4 favourite. He ran well, staying on all the way to the line with the eventual winner, who edged across his path a little as he went by, going down narrowly by half a length.

Summary of Results:

Naseem Alyasmeen, 4th/7, 6/1 --- 13/2
Petrachan, 6th/7, 6/1 --- 8/1
Hail Bold Chief, 2nd/8, 5/1 --- 11/4

Quite annoying to have two second placed finishes this week from our four to run, but still June going well overall.

Tuesday, 12 June 2012


A quiet couple of days for us, with just the one selection yesterday, which ran well but finished second.
We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.00         Newton Abbot       R Craig                         1pt                         5/1 Hills/Bet365/Totesport/BetVictor&others  11/2 PP/Boyles/SportingBet

Very well backed in the morning, R Craig drifted a little on course to 13/2, but ran well, staying on better than most in the conditions over the marathon 3m3f trip. Sadly he ran into one just a touch better handicapped in Wilde Ruby, and went down by five lengths.

Summary of Result:

Monday 11th June 2012

R Craig, 2nd/9, 5/1 --- 13/2

It's always a bit frustrating when the selections aren't quite there for us, but we have to maintain our discipline at all times. There'll always be another day, and we look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings.

Sunday, 10 June 2012

Golden weekend

A really good weekend, with two winners from our three selections, helping to keep pushing things forward really strongly.

We'll start our latest update looking at Friday, where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.55       Market Rasen         Uncle Brit                     1pt                           9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills/Bet365/BetVictor/SportingBet 11/1 Coral
4.40       Market Rasen         Foot The Bill                1pt                            6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Paddy Power/BetVictor/SkyBet/

Uncle Brit was withdrawn, so we just had the one runner, Foot The Bill, who was sent off at 7/1. He jumped poorly and never looked like getting involved.

On to Saturday and masses of racing on, but just the one selection for us.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.00         Newmarket          High Jinx                       1pt                           4/1 generally

And what a cracking performance it was, with James Fanshawe's 4yo well supported into 7/2 and stretching five lengths clear of the field with the eventual runner-up and winning the duel by a neck.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.00         Worcester            Kiama                            1pt                         6/1 generally 13/2 Skybet
4.30         Worcester            Southway Star               1pt                          11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Skybet/Bluesq 13/2  BetVIctor/Totesport/PP/

Kiama was a little uneasy on course, going off at 7/1. He stayed on well enough, without ever really looking like troubling the leaders, and lost third close to the line.

Southway Star was given a cracking ride by conditional Michael Nolan, held up out of trouble she came through with his running run and could be called the winner from someway out, lovely! She opened on course at 13/2 and was supported right into 9/2 at the off. Connections obviously confident of a good showing, and so it proved.

Summary of Results:

Friday 8th June 2012
Uncle Brit, NR
Foot The Bill, 5th/9, 13/2 --- 7/1

Saturday 9th June 2012

High Jinx, 1st/15, 4/1 --- 7/2

Sunday 10th June 2012
Kiama, 4th/10, 6/1 --- 7/1
Southway Star, 1st14, 13-2 --- 9/2

June is more than 15pts to the good now, continuing our good form from the end of May. 

Thursday, 7 June 2012

Euro 2012 guide, and today's results

Before we get on with a look back at our day, as Euro 2012 kicks off tomorrow, a quick plug for a quite incredible bit of research for the tournament.

We've had contact with Greg Gordon thanks to our reviews and general bits of research we've done for the Secret Betting Club, and he comes across as not only a very decent bloke but also one who really knows his football.

He, together with a couple of others have put together a really comprehensive preview guide for the tournament, full of interesting info, and well worth a look if you're looking forward to the action kicking off.

You can get a free preview download (which includes England info), which is 33 pages long in its own right by clicking the link below.

The full version is more than 250 pages long!

Anyway if you're interested you can take a look here.

On to today's racing, and four points dropped back today, although some creditable efforts. We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.30 Hamilton Cut The Cackle 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Coral

4.30 Hamilton Dynamic Drive 1pt 8/1 generally 9/1 Stan James

6.35 Wetherby Blake Dean 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Totesport&others 6/1 BetVictor/Boyles

7.45 Wetherby Merrydown 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 BetVictor/SportingBet 13/2 Totesport/Coral/Boyles/Betfred 7/1 Stan James

Cut The Cackle went off at 6/1 and put in a good showing after being a bit slowly away. Racing prominently he was bang there with every chance and stayed on all the way to the line, but didn't quite have the finishing kick of the front two, going down in third beaten less than a length.

Dynamic Drive also drifted a touch, going off at 10/1 and was there in contention when things got serious but dropped away with no excuses.

Blake Dean went off at 6/1 and finished third, losing second close to the line, but a mile behind the well handicapped winner.

Merrydown (11/4) ran well enough, finishing second, staying on late without getting too near the winner. I think we could have done with a stronger pace as Donald McCain's Bunclody was able to set his own tempo, but there we go.

Summary of Results:

Cut The Cackle, 3rd/9, 5/1 --- 6/1
Dynamic Drive, 4th/5, 8/1 --- 10/1
Blake Dean, 3rd/8, 11/2 --- 6/1
Merrydown, 2nd/5, 13/2 --- 11/4

Wednesday, 6 June 2012

Co-ordinated strike

Another profitable day, thanks to Sahrati's comfortable (in the end) success at Fontwell. There'll be some celebrations tonight after a huge gamble was landed.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.00         Fontwell               Sahrati                           1pt                          7/2+generally inc. 4/1 Totesport/Skybet/PP/BetFred/SportingBet
6.40         Ripon                   Archie Stevens              1pt                           8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/Boyles/Betfred
8.40         Ripon                   Kunegunda                    1pt                          5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills/Totesport 6/1 Lads

Sahrati was the subject of massive support this morning, with what seemed a co-ordinated hit on the bookies as prices tumbled everywhere within minutes, much more than could ever be expected from even the most successful tipping line. Ladbrokes, for example, went from 14/1 to 10/3 in a little over 20 minutes. Normally we don't really like to back horses shorter than 5/1, and certainly the overall size of a punt isn't enough on its own for us to get involved, but today it was apparent that this was something a bit different so we felt compelled to get involved, even at what appeared small odds compared to what had been available an hour before. Still, even 4/1 turned out to be cracking value as Michael Blake's 8yo went off at 9/4. In the race itself, he was given a cracking ride by Tom Cannon, asked to push on and go and win the race three out as the trip was a touch on the sharp side, it looked like he could be in trouble as AP on the favourite loomed up alongside. But a mistake from the eventual second two out seemed to knock the stuffing out of him, and our selection powered clear to win by twelve lengths. The way Sahrati stayed on so well all the way to the line it would be churlish to say it wasn't a deserved win, even despite Stravita's mistake.

This evening at Ripon, Archie Stevens completely missed the kick, went right, and had little chance thereafter, after going off at 7/1.

Kunegunda was kept in the stalls for what seemed like an eternity but broke well enough and put in a good display, tucked in on the rail, constantly cramped for space, she made headway two out and for a moment or two looked like she might be able to burst through rivals to win, but it wasn't quite to be and she finished a close up fourth, going down by less than a length, after starting at 6/1.

Summary of Results

Sahrati, 1st/6, 4/1 --- 9/4
Archie Stevens, 8th/11, 9/1 --- 7/1
Kunegunda, 4th/10, 11/2 --- 6/1

Three winners for the month already, from just eleven selections, and 11pts of profit. Let's hope we can keep it going tomorrow.

Tuesday, 5 June 2012

Pushing On

Regular blog-followers will know that we recently stopped reporting results in detail on the blog. These continued for members, but not so for the wider audience. Change of heart here, we're going to go back to regular blog reporting of results, starting today.


Another good day, which is becomming a bit of a theme at the moment, with The Ducking Stool winning in good style in the last at Yarmouth at 10/1 for us.

Not so good yesterday, and we'll start there with our latest update.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.40         Carlisle                 Nemushka                      1pt                        9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/Totesport/BetVictor/Betfred                
4.55         Cartmel                Ben Eva                          1pt                        7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/Hills/Coral/Boyles&
others 9/1 SportingBet

Nemushka was quite nicely backed into 4/1 to make up for a troubled run in the Silver Bowl at Handicap, but could just never get competitive.

Ben Eva went off at 8/1 and never looked like landing a blow.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.10         Ffos Las                Amazing Valour              1pt                          7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Boyles 8/1 Bet365/Coral/Totesport/BetFred
6.05         Yarmouth              The Ducking Stool          1pt                          9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads/Bet365/Totesport/Boyles/

Amazing Valour set off in the joint-lead, but after a couple of slow jumps he immediately started struggling very badly and soon got pulled up. Presumably something wasn't quite right as there was plenty of market confidence about this one, going off at 5/1 and he should certainly have got further than the 6th in a 3mile contest..

So after three very poor efforts we turned to The Ducking Stool to continue to help things push forward, and she did so really well. She has something of an akward running style and seemed to be a little under pressure to hold her pitch in second as they turned for home, but it soon became apparent that Julia Feilden's 5yo was travelling as well as any and she soon quickened into a good lead, staying on strongly all the way to the line, a couple of lengths clear, after starting at 8/1, great stuff. 

Summary of Results:

4th June 2012

Nemushka, 4th/7, 5/1 --- 4/1
Ben Eva, PU/11, 8/1 --- 8/1

5th June 2012

Amazing Valour, PU/8, 8/1 --- 5/1
The Ducking Stool, 1st/11, 10/1 --- 8/1

In our last 17 bets, we've had five winners with 25pts of profit. Safe to say that it would be good to keep this run going for as long as possible!

Saturday, 2 June 2012

May Analysis

A good winner today with our first selection of the month, with Bond Fastric doing the business in speedy style at Beverley for us. One unplaced effort tonight, and a second, leaves the day, and June so far, three points in profit.

It feels like we're beginning to pick up a head of steam, so let's hope we can really kick on now and get the rewards we think we deserve with the value we're constantly, on average, finding.

For now, it's time for our look back at May, which was our best month of the year so far.We finished with +16.57pts of profit to official figures, a return on investment of +22.09%, although many members will have been able to get better returns if they were particularly quick off the mark.

Here are the stats:

Bets: 70
Wins: 11 (15.71%)
2nds: 7 (10%)
3rds: 3 (15.8%)
Placed total: 21 (30%)
Average odds taken: 7.31/1
Average SP: 6.27/1
Average win odds: 6.33/1
Profit/Loss: +16.57pts
Return On Investment: +22.09%

First of all, at 70 bets, it was our most prolific month in terms of bet volume since last July, which is no great surprise given there is so much racing on at the moment, as well as evening racing of course.
Eleven wins is a decent enough tally, ensuring a decent level of profit, and for only the second time in the last eight active months we had more winners than second placed finishes.

We started the month really strongly, with seven wins in our first 30 selections, and things were looking good. Then, bang, right out of the blue, we hit a run of 26 without a win. That brought us back to just a touch under even, and then we finished well, with four wins in our last 14 to ensure we finished with more than 16pts in the bag.

According to mathematical probabilities, (via. The Staking Machine), our longest losing run, from 70 selections, with a strike rate of 15.71% should, in the worst case scenario, be 24.9 - so to hit 26 is quite something!

Still that's what variance can throw at us, and we were able to absorb it well for the month and still end well in profit.

Again we comfortably beat SP with our advised odds (prices taken ten minutes after selection despatch), 7.31/1, compared to 6.27/1, so that was pleasing.

So all in all, a good month, not a month to get over excited by, but it was good to push things forward and hopefully a sign of what's to come over the summer.

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