Saturday, 2 June 2012

May Analysis

A good winner today with our first selection of the month, with Bond Fastric doing the business in speedy style at Beverley for us. One unplaced effort tonight, and a second, leaves the day, and June so far, three points in profit.

It feels like we're beginning to pick up a head of steam, so let's hope we can really kick on now and get the rewards we think we deserve with the value we're constantly, on average, finding.

For now, it's time for our look back at May, which was our best month of the year so far.We finished with +16.57pts of profit to official figures, a return on investment of +22.09%, although many members will have been able to get better returns if they were particularly quick off the mark.

Here are the stats:

Bets: 70
Wins: 11 (15.71%)
2nds: 7 (10%)
3rds: 3 (15.8%)
Placed total: 21 (30%)
Average odds taken: 7.31/1
Average SP: 6.27/1
Average win odds: 6.33/1
Profit/Loss: +16.57pts
Return On Investment: +22.09%

First of all, at 70 bets, it was our most prolific month in terms of bet volume since last July, which is no great surprise given there is so much racing on at the moment, as well as evening racing of course.
Eleven wins is a decent enough tally, ensuring a decent level of profit, and for only the second time in the last eight active months we had more winners than second placed finishes.

We started the month really strongly, with seven wins in our first 30 selections, and things were looking good. Then, bang, right out of the blue, we hit a run of 26 without a win. That brought us back to just a touch under even, and then we finished well, with four wins in our last 14 to ensure we finished with more than 16pts in the bag.

According to mathematical probabilities, (via. The Staking Machine), our longest losing run, from 70 selections, with a strike rate of 15.71% should, in the worst case scenario, be 24.9 - so to hit 26 is quite something!

Still that's what variance can throw at us, and we were able to absorb it well for the month and still end well in profit.

Again we comfortably beat SP with our advised odds (prices taken ten minutes after selection despatch), 7.31/1, compared to 6.27/1, so that was pleasing.

So all in all, a good month, not a month to get over excited by, but it was good to push things forward and hopefully a sign of what's to come over the summer.

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