Sunday, 30 December 2012

Quick update

Just a quick hello ahead of a full results summary in the next few days. We had a good winner yesterday in the shape of Stopped Out, which leaves December around level for us at the moment.

Our "of interest" selections continue to perform strongly, with winners up to 14/1, which leaves us with slightly mixed feelings of course (easy to regret them not being official picks when they scoot home!) but we know some of our members are benefiting from this extra advice, and that's good for us.

We'll be back soon, but if we don't post again before tomorrow night, we wish you a very Happy New Year, and roll on 2013!

Best wishes

Sam and The Market Examiner team.

Sunday, 23 December 2012

Merry Christmas

We hope you're well and feeling festive as we approach Christmas!
Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.25         Haydock              Duke Of Monmouth        1pt                          9/2 generally

Duke Of Monmouth ran well for a long time and was still there approaching the final flight but didn't quite enough left in the tank in the very heavy conditions and finished fourth, beaten just under five lengths. He opened on course at 7/2 and was backed into 11/4 at SP, so the sustained support was there which we like to see but sadly the result didn't follow.

Summary of Result

Saturday 22nd December 2012

Duke Of Monmouth, 4th/8, 9/2 --- 11/4

Wishing you a very Merry Christmas.

All the best,

Sam and The Market Examiner team.

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Ironic winner

Wasn't it always going to be the case, that our first "mention" - i.e reference to a horse not officially a selection but one that we've been closing eyeing - goes and wins at a decent price!

Aye Well got up close to the line for a bitter-sweet victory in the opener at Catterick. Naturally our first "proper" selection in this "new era" ran unplaced. Oh how the racing gods have a sense of humour.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.00         Folkestone           Verumontanum              1pt                            8/1 Coral/BetVictor/Totesport/PP/Boyles


Catterick 12.10 Aye Well (9/1)
Catterick 2.10 Mrs Eff (8/1) and Stop On (14/1)
Folkestone 2.30 Doheny Bar (7/1)

After Aye Well got up to win at Catterick, and Stop On ran a big race too, finishing third, we looked to Verumontanum to put in a good showing in the last ever hurdles race at Folkestone. He continued to be backed, going off at 5/1, but really never looked like getting involved and was pulled up. 

Summary of Result

Verumontanum, PU/10, 8/1 --- 5/1

On to tomorrow!

Monday, 17 December 2012

Christmas cheer returns! And a tweak to the service.

A cracking winner today to lift December back into profit after a sticky spell. It just goes to show how things can turn quickly with a nice priced pick coming in. Sadly we couldn't follow it up, but eight point profits on the day will do nicely.

Yesterday we got the price again but sadly the cash stayed with the layers this time.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
1.00         Carlisle                 Man Of Principles          1pt                          8/1 PP/Totesport/Coral 9/1 Boyles

Man Of Principles went off at 6/1 but was under pressure all too early and the 9yo was eventually pulled up. 

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.05         Plumpton             Ballinhassig                     1pt                          8/1 generally 9/1 Coral/SportingBet/Stan James
3.35         Plumpton             Gaelic Silver                   1pt                          5/1 generally 11/2 VC 6/1 Boyles/Totesport/Stan James

Ballinhassig was nicely backed to win this slog, returning to the C&D he won at back in January, going off at 6/1 in the end and he drew clear to win easily for Sarah Wall, a cracking effort and a big well done to connections.

Gaelic Silver was all the rage this morning but a bit weak on course, going off at 6/1. He hung right throughout and never looked entirely comfortable, finishing well beaten in the end.

Summary of Results

16th December 2012

Man Of Principles, PU/9, 8/1 --- 6/1

17th December 2012

Ballinhassig, 1/5, 9/1 --- 6/1
Gaelic Silver, 5/7, 11/2 --- 6/1

It leaves December 1.5pts in front. Nothing to get too carried away by but nice all the same considering we've had a couple of second placed finishes and another falling when looking the likely winner. 

From tomorrow, we're going to be providing an extra service for our subscribers. After listening to feedback from our subscription base, we're going to start listing horses whose odds we've been tracking and we're interested in, but for whatever reason aren't quite a selection for us. These "of interest" horses will we hope add extra value to a Market Examiner subscription, particularly on days when there is nothing for us to put up as a selection. While we would like to think they will turn a profit over the course of time, we won't be backing them ourselves. Ours is a system based on numbers and filters without emotion and only the most fine-tuned selections will be put up as actual picks, but our members have suggested this would be a popular addition to what we do.

It could be said that listing these mentions is a no win strategy for us. Plenty of them win and the question will be why weren't they "proper" picks, and if plenty of them lose, it'll be a case of why give mention to horses that seem to be running badly. Well, that's as may be. Plenty of other respected services out there mention horses which are not actual selections and we feel that our membership base are mature enough to decide what to do with these "of interest" horses for themselves. Either way, we think it's going to be a good move for our subscribers and we'll see how it goes. 

Saturday, 15 December 2012

Little Christmas cheer!

It's been a frustrating couple of weeks or so and it's continued over the last couple of days, with three selections being turned over, two of them starting nicely shorter than backed at and one running a big race but just finding one too good. 

Yesterday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.10         Bangor                  Tarbeck                       1pt                           11/2 generally 6/1 Hills/PP

Tarbeck went off a very well backed 7/2 and ran well for a long time but in the end didn't get home in the mud and finished well beaten.

Today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.10        Lingfield                 Colebrooke                  1pt                           8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Hills/PP/Bluesq 10/1 Betfred
1.35        Doncaster              Fiendish Flame              1pt                           10/1 generally 11/1 BetVictor SportingBet

Colebrooke was nicely supported, going off at 7/1, and the 4yo ran a cracking race in the heavy conditions. Always prominent, he was bang there coming to the last couple of hurdles, but the David Pipe trained favourite Tanerko Emery came through to readily take it up before the last and won by five lengths. Colebrooke was well clear of third, but no returns for us win only backers.

25 minutes later at Doncaster Fiendish Flame (10/1sp) set off in the lead as is his way and seemed to be going well enough for a while, but faded approaching three out to finish fifth.

Summary of Results:

Friday 14th December 2012:

Tarbeck, 8th/8, 6/1 --- 7/2

Saturday 15th December 2012:

Colebrooke, 2nd/8, 9/1 --- 7/1
Fiendish Flame, 5th/8, 10/1 --- 10/1

Three NH meetings tomorrow, and let's hope we can spin the week back into profit with a nice winner or two. 

Thursday, 13 December 2012

Results Update

A very quiet stretch with four selections since our last update, unfortunately with no returns among them.

Last Friday, the 7th December, we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30         Exeter                  Shaking Hands               1pt                            6/1 generally 13/2 Hills/Bet365/PP/Boyles

Shaking Hands went off a nicely backed 11/2 but we knew we were in trouble the moment the commentator revealed ten seconds before the off that the tongue-tie he was meant to be using wasn't in position. Apparently they couldn't get it on the horse. He went on to run well for much of the 4 mile contest before downing tools and ending up pulling up, pretty frustrating.

On Saturday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.15         Wetherby             Amore Mio                   1pt                            11/2 generally 6/1 Coral/SportingBet
3.20        Aintree                  Blackstaff                      1pt                            10/1 generally 12/1 Totesport/Betfred 14/1 Hills/Bet365

Amore Mio started at 4/1 and stayed on to finish third, while Blackstaff was also nicely supported, going off at 9/1 but made mistakes and fell at the 9th.

And that was it until today when we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.50         Taunton                Rajdhani Express           1pt                          4/1 PP/Coral/Boyles/SportingBet/Stan James/Bluesq

Rajdhani Express started at 4/1 and was still going beautifully when he moved into a share of the lead, trading at shorter than 1/2 in running. Unfortunately he fell three out, leaving Changing Times with a straight forward win. It was no guarantee that Nicky Henderson's 5yo would have won had he stayed on his feet but he would certainly have had a massive chance, possibly one that got away.

Summary of Results: 

Friday 7th December 2012:

Shaking Hands, PU/10, 13/2 --- 11/2

Saturday 8th December 2012:

Amore Mio, 3rd/8, 6/1 --- 4/1
Blackstaff, F/9, 14/1 --- 9/1

Thursday 13th December 2012:

Rajdhani Express, F/7, 4/1 --- 4/1

Wednesday, 5 December 2012

November Analysis

High time for our look back at November 2012, which was was a good month in terms of ROI, and headline profit.

Bets: 17
Wins: 3 (17.65%)
2nds: 2 (11.76%)
3rds: 1 (5.88%)
Placed total: 6 (35.29%)
Average odds taken: 7.76/1
Average SP: 6.63/1
Average win odds: 8.33/1
Profit: +11pts
Return On Investment: 64.71%

In terms of number of selections, it was our lowest since January 2010, which was partly because of abandoned meetings, and partly due to a tightening up of our selection policy. We strongly believe that this tightening of our selection policy will result in greater profits going forward.

For only the third month of 2012, we had more winners than second placed finishes, and it was good to see that advised odds well outperformed SP, with more than 3/4 starting at shorter or the same price as advised - again generally a hallmark of a profitable line.

So we press on into December with high hopes for a strong end to the year. 

Results update

We'll be doing our November review shortly, but first just a quick look back at the last couple of days.

Starting yesterday, we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.30      Folk                           Promised Wings              1pt                     5-1 general

Promised Wings went off a solid 5/1 shot after being quite nicely backed in the morning. We don't know for sure of course, but for us this was a pretty good example of a jockey in Tom Cannon having been told that the money's down and not to give up on him. Rousted along all too early he looked like he was going to finish well beaten, if he finished at all, as kept coming on and off the bridle, but Tom continued to work on him and helped him stay on right to the line, snatching second near the finish - sadly quite some way behind the winner. So the each-way money landed, but no returns for us win-only backers.

Then today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.40         Hereford                Aureate                       1pt                           8/1 generally 

Aureate started a well backed 11/2 for Brian Forsey but from halfway never really looked like getting involved. He wasn't helped by a faller three out when trying to stay on, but while he kept on into 5th he was never going well enough to be considered in any way unlucky.

Summary of Results:

4th December 2012:

Promised Wings, 2nd/7, 5/1 --- 5/1

5th December 2012:

Aureate, 5th/11, 8/1 --- 5/1

We'll be back shortly with our look at November.

Sunday, 2 December 2012

Good start to December

A 100% strike-rate for December so far with our only selection of the month so far winning easily today at Leicester. 

A shame there was a 30p R4 deduction, particularly with the way Witch's Hat ran out a comfortable victor, but still a good start to the month.

Yesterday we had no selections, and today we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.55         Leicester              Witch's Hat                    1pt                          5/1 generally

There were little bits of 11/2 around when the email went out, but 5/1 was more readily available. Three non-runners led to a 30p R4 deduction, meaning 5/1 became 3.5/1 - but still a fair bit bigger than the 9/4 he the maiden 9yo went off at. The support was well justified, with Jim Old's gelding being sent off in the lead and was never headed. His closest pursuer fell at the last fence, but he looked to more than have his measure  and he ran out a very easy winner.

Summary of Results:

30th November 2012:

Quite The Man NR (abandoned)

1st December 2012: 

No selections

2nd December 2012:

Witch's Hat, 1st/5, 3.5/1 --- 9/4

It's good to start the month in positive territory, and hopefully we can build on it in the coming days.