Thursday, 30 April 2009

Level stake results month by month

Here's how things look to level stakes (as explained before my slightly odd staking plan can make things look a bit odd!)

November - 29 bets - 3 wins - minus 10.5pts (Running total -10.5pts)
December - 43 bets - 9 wins - plus 25.5pts (Running total + 15pts)
January - 39 bets - 6 wins - plus 11pts (Running total + 26pts)
February - 33 bets - 4 wins - plus 0.5pts (Running total +26.5pts)
March - 70 bets - 6 wins - minus 22.75pts (Running total +3.25pts)

April - 101 bets - 18 wins - plus 28.3pts (Running total +31.55pts)

The overall strike rate is 14.6% and the average win odds are 6.53/1 while the average price of selection is 8.28/1.

A decent April

Just to put on record how April went:

101 bets 18 wins (17.82% strike rate) 23 placed (22.8%)
WIN £64.12 (+63.8% of bank from month's start)
Total bank: £164.70

The peak was £219.02 and I am on a current run of ten without a win.

Stakes are currently £4.38.
If the bank is reduced to £109.51 then stakes will be reduced to £2.19.
Any level above £219.02 will mean increased stakes.

If May can provide half of what's happened this month the bank will end May on £217.24 so that seems a reasonable short term target.

Five today

Just grabbed a minute between meetings, and again missed a point or two with the prices but what can you do.

Good luck to:

Embsay Crag Redcar 15:40 10/1 ladbrokes

Naxox Hereford 16:05 5/1 sporting bet

Mango Music Redcar 16:15 10/1 bet365

Gofannon Hereford 16:40 9/2 betfred

Convallaria Yarmouth 19:30 11/2 sporting bet

Not been a good week so far, with 0 for 4 today, although of the days for the winners to not come it's not a bad one as I didn't get all the best prices. Gofannon pulled up early with what looked like an injury unfortunately.

Embsay Crag, 6th, 8/1

Naxox, PU, 13/2

Mango Music, 6th, 9/1

Gofannon, PU, 4/1

Convallaria NON RUNNER

April's been a good month overall but has ended with a wimper so will look forward to May to respark things.

Wednesday, 29 April 2009

A day of rest..

.. unless one particular runner drifts before the off.

Which judging by the way it was backed this morning could be unlikely.

Wanting at least 7/2 about Kingdom of Light in the 2.20 at Pontefract, so have done it as Betfair SP option.

Otherwise all quiet today, which is a relief because work again severely got in the way of checking things today, which is set to be the case tomorrow as well.

Well I didn't quite get the price I was after on Kingdom of Light, which is lucky because he could only manage second. In hindsight it was a stupid thing to do, as my entire selection process is centred around backing horses at bigger prices than they "should" be, so by backing at Betfair SP is a completely futile exercise given how impressive the Betfair SP market is at sorting out the exact chances of a selection (at least for systems like this which using the betting market as literally the only reason for making a selection).

Otherwise a 9/1 shot was missed in the 5.15 at Pontefract when Timocracy was very close to being a selection but wasn't for a couple of reasons. Amazingly it went off at 9/4 and then did exactly what was expected. Loads of money for it on course, and there were enough clues about this morning to show that may happen but sadly this time I wasn't on it.

Am doing staff appraisals all day tomorrow so again work's going to get in the way but will do my best to get my bets on as early as possible and will look to update here when I can.

Tuesday, 28 April 2009

Three today

Apologies for the late notice, in fact a double staked selection's already been beaten.

Absolutley hammered by work today and various meetings

It's / it was good luck to:

Miss Gibbs Bath 14:10 14/1 Ladbrokes (double stake)

Crimson Fern Bath 17:05 13/2 sporting bet

Speed Up Sedgefield 19:50 9/2 william hill (double stake)

Don't you hate five furlong sprints

Crimson Fern beaten a nose with this commentary:

towards rear, not clear run from over 1f out, switched both ways and ran on, just failed

Otherwise Miss Gibbs ran poorly and drifted as well so hopeless selection that one.

Miss Gibbs, 10th, 20/1sp

Crimson Fern, 2nd, 6/1


Monday, 27 April 2009

Six today

Hectic day and three double bets!

Good luck to:

Menelaus Towcester 14:40 8/1 Stan James DOUBLE

Raucous Newcastle 14:50 8/1 will hill DOUBLE

Laconicos Plumpton 15:00 7/1 Stan James DOUBLE

Supreme Speedster Newcastle 15:20 6/1 bet365

Amethyst Dawn Newcastle 15:50 10/1 bet 365

When Doves Cry Windsor 17:55 9/2 ladbrokes

Not a great day, really not helped because of two short priced non runners in the 2.50 which decimated the price of my winner.

Manelaus, 5th, 4/1
Raucous, 1st, 7/4 (paid me the equivalent of 2.8/1)
Laconicos, F, 11/2
Supreme Speedster, 16th, 7/1
Amethyst Dawn, 5th, 4/1
When Doves Cry, 9th, 5/1

Sunday, 26 April 2009

Weekly update

Not sure if this will become a regular feature but have a few minutes so thought I may as well do a weekly update. These are the results from last Monday through to today:

21 bets
3 wins 14.29%
8 placed 38.1%
10 unplaced 47.6%
1.5pt loss on the week

Roll on tomorrow!

100th post! - three today

This is the 100th post since the blog began let's hope it can be crowned with a winner or two!

Ameeq was extremely close to being a "double stake" selection, but not quite, so that one will almost certainly win due to sods law!

Because of yesterday's winner, the bank was at a "renewed high" of £219.02, so that means stakes are now £4.38 win singles.

It's good luck to:

Williams Wishes Ludlow 3.05 5/1 bet365

Ameeq Ludlow 4.15 10/1 will hill

Stamford Blue Brighton 5.25 10/1 Bet365

Close but no cigar today, with 0/3 the return but at least a fair bit of value as normal.

Williams Wishes, 2nd, 3/1

Ameeq, 3rd, 17/2

Stamford Blue, 6th, 9/1

Saturday, 25 April 2009

Three today and interesting findings

A while ago, when I first started following market movers, I used to have a very strict code for the horses I backed.

This proved successful (406 bets, 68 wins, average win odds 6.51/1, ROI 25.8%, Level stakes profit 104.75pts) but what was frustrating was the slightly low run of bets.

There'd be an average of two or three a week.

Since then my analysis has shown it pays to loosen up a bit, albeit at risk of damaging strike rate and ROI purely because the number of bets drive things forward.

Last night though, I sat down and worked out what my ROI/Strike rate would be if I stuck to my original method of finding selections since this latest effort. The findings are quite interesting:

38 bets
9 wins
Strike rate: 23.68%
Average winning odds: 6.75/1
ROI: 59.87%
Level stakes profit: 22.75pts

So over a smaller series, quite similar results to my plan of a couple of years ago.

So a dilemma, to stick to this or to somehow incorporate it into the bigger picture.

So after some thought, I've decided to incorporate the "super selection" process into my current plan, by purely doubling the stakes on the horses that are selected in this way.

Ironically the first of those selections runs today:

Good luck to:

Alsadaa Sandown 13:35 8/1 will hill

Hustle Leicester 13:55 5/1 bet365

The Artful Fox Market Rasen 14:15 16/1 sporting bet - DOUBLE STAKE

Obviously if The Artful Fox wins it'll be an excellent day.

Hope you have a great weekend - off for a golf lesson now!

Golf lesson went well but Alsadaa even better, scooting home to win easily.

Otherwise a non runner and not a good start for the new double stake system, still a profitable day!

Alsadaa, 1st, 13/2sp

Hustle Non Runner

The Artful Fox, 6th, 14/1

Friday, 24 April 2009

Return On Investment and other stats

Just in case you're interested, I thought I'd log some stats 298 bets into this plan.

Total wins: 44
Level stakes profit: +35.75pts
Average Odds: 8.29/1
Average Winning Odds: 6.59/1
Longest Winning Sequence: 3
Longest Losing Sequence: 30
Strike Rate: 14.77%
Required Strike Rate to produce profit assuming current winning odds continue: 13.2%
Return on Investment: 11.99%

Bought my Dad the new book Enemy Number One (which looks a cracking read by the way) for his birthday and apparently the word is a decent ROI is anything above 8%, so pretty good so far on that scale. If anybody has thoughts on ROI I'd be really interested to hear it, it's something I've not really thought much about for some reason until tonight.

Four today

A busy day and in fact am writing this on my phone as i'm out of the office today. Already one winner am delighted to say, just annoyed i couldn't post here beforehand!

Am on -

Master of disguise - 2.35 sandown, 13/2 totesport

Nicky tam, 5pm perth , 8/1 paddy power

Mighty moose, 5.45 chepstow, 9/2 stan james

Wizard's dust 7.45 bangor, 5/1 bet365

A profitable day!

Master of Disguise winning the 2.35 really well and backed right up to the off.

Here are the sp's and all:

Master of Disguise, 1st, 3/1

Nicky Tam - NON RUNNER

Mighty Moose, 3rd, 4/1

Wizard's Dust, 4th, 10/3

Thursday, 23 April 2009

Four today

Busy day today with four nicely backed

Good luck to:

Sharp Reply Perth 14:40 21/5 sporting bet

Thunderball Beverley 15:00 5/1 bet365

Ollie Magern Perth 15:40 4/1 paddy power

Lavenoak Lad Uttoxeter 19:30 6/1 bet365

Nothing doing here with 0/4 on the day unfortunately.

Here's confirmation:

Sharp Reply, 5th, 8/1sp

Thunderball, 3rd, 11/2

Ollie Magern, 2nd, 5/2

Lavenoak Lad, 3rd, 5/1

Wednesday, 22 April 2009

Three today

Three today, two in the same race which I don't like doing but both have been really well backed.

So it's good luck to:

Categorical Perth 16:30 13/2 sporting bet

Conjecture Catterick 17:50 5/1 bet365

Karate Queen Catterick 17:50 9/1 betfred

Conjecture ran a decent race to finish second (was mugged in the last 50 yards) but no return today. Alarmingly Conjecture and Karate Queen drifted a fair bit before off time although the first selection continued to shorten.

On a different note, don't you hate racing commentators who are so flat that you know they couldn't care less who won the race? Yesterday's Conjecture finish was relayed with an extraordinary lack of enthusiasm on the Will Hill line, which was surprising given the lead changed right before the line with a horse the bloke had barely mentioned before.

Anyway with that off my chest here's confirmation:

Categorical, 10th, 9/2sp

Conjecture, 2nd, 7/1

Karate Queen, 7th, 12/1

Tuesday, 21 April 2009

Three runners today

Despite a huge amount of racing, only three selections today.

Goood luck to:

Pelham Crescent Bath 17:15 5/1 bet365

Lennie Briscoe Bath 17:50 9/2 coral

Thievery Towcester 19:30 5/1 bet365

Some very well backed horses on the all weather today but all the research I've done says they're not worthing following (it's actually profitable to lay them).

A profitable day! Pelham Crescent winning the first race in good style. A shame a winner couldn't be found from the other two selections as the bank would have been at a "renewed high". As it is, it's five points short.

Pelham Crescent, 1st, 4/1sp

Lennie Briscoe, 6th, 5/1

Thievery, 6th, 4/1

Monday, 20 April 2009

Bounce back with three today

Hopefully a winner or two will come from the following.

Good luck to:

Brincscall Pontefract 14:10 4/1 boyle sports

Yankee Holiday Hexham 15:30 5/1 william hill

Last Sovereign Windsor 18:15 7/2 bet 365

It's eight without a win now, here's confirmation:

Brincscall, 5th, 11/2

Yankee Holiday, 3rd, 4/1

Last Sovereign, 7th, 3/1

Sunday, 19 April 2009

A blank weekend

Apologies for not being able to post selections pre-racing today.

As it turned out it was a blank afternoon with two selections going down.

Nesnaas in the 3.20 at Wincanton
Backed at 5/1 with Paddy Power, came 6th, 9/2 sp

Elite Land in the 5.00 at Stratford
Backed at 9/2 with Bet365, came 3rd at 5/1 (given far too much to do incidentally)

Saturday, 18 April 2009

Three today

Hopefully the winning run can continue today

Good luck to:

Blue Rum Thirsk 14:00 4/1 bet365

Island Arrow Bangor 15:50 8/1 will hill

La Rosa Nostra Doncaster 19:25 5/1 paddy power

0/3 today unfortunately although they all ran quite well.

Blue Rum, 3rd, 9/2

Island Arrow, 4th, 17/2

La Rosa Nostra, 2nd, 5/2

Friday, 17 April 2009

Eight today

Lots of meetings, and plenty being backed.

Missed a point or two with some of these because of work commitments but not too much damage done.

Good luck to:

Etxalar Ayr 14:20 14/1 tote sport

Oldjoesaid Newbury 14:40 9/2 sporting bet

Mitchel Henry Ayr 14:50 4/1 ladbrokes

Turn Me On Thirsk 15:40 5/1 sporting bet

Cast Iron Casey Ayr 16:00 7/2 bet365

Solway Bee Ayr 16:35 16/1 boyle sports

What A Scientist Cheltenham 19:20 8/1 boyle sports

Run Forest Run Sedgefield 20:00 7/1 bet365

Another profitable day with April more so far more than correcting all the problems through Feb/March. Damn shame the run happened in the order it did because the bank would be looking very healthy, but because of the reduction in stakes it's lagging a little behind. Using The Staking Machine I can shuffle the results any number of times and find that the bank wouldn't have needed to be adjusted on about 90% of other runs of results. Still mustn't grumble as at least the results are coming now (as I always thought they would!)

Anyway here's confirmation:

Etxalar 4th, 10/1sp

Oldjoesaid 6th, 3/1

Mitchel Henry NON RUNNER

Turn Me On 1st, 11/4f

Cast Iron Casey 4th, 100/30

Solway Bee 4th, 14/1

What A Scientist 5th, 6/1

Run Forest Run 1st, 9/2

It means the bank's again at a "renewed" high, of £216.85 - bets are now £4.34 win singles.

Thursday, 16 April 2009

Three today

Good luck to:

Irish Guard, Cheltenham 2.45 12/1 Stan James

Edge Closer, Newmarket 3.00 5/1 Ladbrokes

Vhujon, Ripon 4.55 6/1 sporting bet

Not happening today unfortunately, with 0/3 on show.

Irish Guard, PU, 9/2sp

Edge Closer, 7th, 7/2

Vhujon, 4th, 7/1

Irish Guard never really seemed to be travelling, Edge Closer missed the break which seemed to put pay to his chances and Vhujon again was a little slow starting and beaten around a length in the end.

Wednesday, 15 April 2009

Six today

Wow the runners are coming thick and fast at the moment. A couple of others are also close qualifiers but these are the selections. I'd be looking to actually oppose Wajaha in the Nell Gwyn according to my trends book (better to side with horses reappearing today) but there you go!

So it's good luck to:

Dave's Dream Cheltenham 15:20 9/2 sporting bet

Ougba Newmarket 15:35 5/1 bet365

Private Be Cheltenham 15:55 5/1 bet365

Wajaha Newmarket 16:10 21/5 sporting bet

Secret Witness Newmarket 17:20 18/1 Coral

Dark Mischief Newmarket 17:55 11/2 skybet

The winning continues, this is a brilliant run at the moment, partly thanks to some unexposed flat runners being heavily punted and doing the business.

Dave's Dream, 6th, 9/2sp

Ougba, 1st, 4/1

Private Be, 2nd, 7/2

Wajaha, 7th, 7/2

Secret Witness - Non Runner

Dark Mischief, 1st, 3/1

The bank is now around the £201 mark so stakes are currently £4.02 win singles.

Tuesday, 14 April 2009

Busy run continues

Five today.

Good luck to:

Copper Sound Exeter 14:10 20/1 will hill

Summer Lodge Market Rasen 14:30 13/2 bet365

Ibberton Exeter 15:10 5/1 ladbrokes

Dr Hart Exeter 15:40 14/1 will hill

Dart Yarmouth 16:20 11/2 sporting bet

Another profitable day! Ibberton absolutely hosing up after continuing to be backed.

Copper Sound actually ran pretty well in the first but faded in the closing stages, Summer Lodge fell when reasonably close up and having three to jump while Dart was a non-runner.

Copper Sound, 4th, 20/1sp

Summer Lodge, F, 9/2

Ibberton, 1st, 7/2

Dr Hart, 6th, 16/1

Dart, Non Runner

The 2pt profit today means the bank is finely poised at it's "renewed" peak, so hopefully stakes will be increased at some point in the next few days.

Monday, 13 April 2009

Busy Bank Holiday

What a gorgeous day today. Off to Chepstow races this afternoon but sadly no system selection bets there today.

Eight in total meeting my criteria of being nicely backed so it's good luck to:

Style Award Redcar 14:00 13/2 vcbet

lways Certain Plumpton 14:30 20/1 stan james

Zefooha Redcar 14:35 8/1 boylesports

Desert Kiss Yarmouth 14:50 4/1 ladbrokes

Palos Conti Fakenham 15:15 10/1 sporting bet

Blaze Ahead Huntingdon 15:55 9/1 sporting bet

Alfadora Fakenham 16:25 8/1 will hill

Celebrity Call Plumpton 16:50 10/1 bet365

Another profitable day, with Palos Conti getting up in the shadow of the post to win (six weeks ago he would've been beaten a nose!). That was the only winner but the price was decent.

Here's confirmation:

Style Award Redcar 7th, 7/1 sp

Always Certain 8th, 16/1

Zefooha Redcar 8th, 4/1

Desert Kiss Yarmouth 4th, 9/4

Palos Conti Fakenham 1st, 9/2

Blaze Ahead Huntingdon 3rd, 6/1

Alfadora Fakenham 3rd, 15/2

Celebrity Call Plumpton 2nd, 8/1

A good day for value as well with seven out of the eight selections going off shorter (sometimes considerably so) at SP. As for Chepstow - not a winner in sight but low stakes and lovely weather meant for a great day out.

Today's winner also means that the bank has a new stake of £3.54 (from the peak of £177.03) - gradually getting back up there after that shocking recent run.

Sunday, 12 April 2009

Happy Easter

Two today for Easter Sunday

Good luck to:

Vial De Kerdec, Plumpton 2.30 - 12/1 Bet365

Mythicism, Mussleburgh 5.20 7.1 Bet365

Could actually have taken 15/2 about the second selection but went for best odds guaranteed, not sure that's the best thing to do but we'll see.

Nice winner today to cancel out the poor little run of the last 3 or 4 days. Been a good month so far, I hope it continues. Could be an interesting day tomorrow with all the racing on!

Here's confirmation

Vial De Kerdec, 1st, 12-1sp

Mythicism, 8th, 15/2

Saturday, 11 April 2009

Quiet return to action

Just the one today after yesteday's day off

Good luck to:

Noble Action, Newton Abbot 15:15, william hill 7/1

Possible winner down the pan there with Noble Action unseating at the 12th fence when in contention. Had the value again though.

Noble Action, UR, 4/1f

Thursday, 9 April 2009

Six runners today!

Probably equalling a record here - six going today.

Good luck to:

Battle - Folkestone 14:10 5/1 bet365

Orion Star Wincanton 14:20 14/1 will hill

We Have A Dream Folkestone 14:40 8/1 stan james

Pourdel Wincanton 14:50 11/2 sporting bet

Tyup Pompey Ludlow 16:00 25/1 bet365

Up In Arms Folkestone 16:10 16/1 Stan James

Carnage today without a winner in sight. Would have actually had an 8/1 shot come in if I hadn't ruled it on account of the number of runners in the race but there you go. And Up In Arms was backed down to half the price but then UR - in a 1m4furlong flat race - what the hell?!

Anyway here's confirmation

Battle - 4th, 13/2sp

Orion Star , 6th, 8/1

We Have A Dream, 10th, 15/2

Pourdel, 4th, 9/2

Tyup Pompey, 7th, 22/1

Up In Arms, UR, 15/2

Wednesday, 8 April 2009

Five today

Quite a few being backed nicely,

Good luck to the following:

Rievaulx World, Nottingham 2.30 4/1 Bet365

Terrible Tenant, Hereford 3.40, 5/1 Will Hill

Star Strider, Brighton, 3.50, 6/1 Will Hill

Taste The Wine, Nottingham, 4.30, 10/1 Will Hill

Thoughtsofstardom, Brighton, 4.50, 12/1 Bet365

Wipeout today with no winners and one selection beaten by a 40/1 outsider. Nothing like being brought back down to earth after a good recent spell!

Got the value with most of these though which is the idea

Here's confirmation:

Rievaulx World, 6th, 5/2

Terrible Tenant, 2nd, 9/2

Star Strider, 6th, 15/2

Taste The Wine, 10th, 8/1

Thoughtsofstardom, 6th, 8/1

Tuesday, 7 April 2009

Four today

Been stuck in a meeting for 3 hours so missed nearly all the best prices about the following, very very annoying but can't be helped.

Anyway have best price guaranteed for all the selections which is something.

Good luck to:

Ouste, Sedgefield 14:50 stan james 9/2

Buckstruther, Sedgefield 15:50 9/1 will hill

Take Me There, Fontwell 16:30 4/1 will hill

Eton Fable, Pontefract 17:40 3/1 boylesports

Well it's almost like today never really happened, with level results for the day thanks to the 3/1 winner in the last.

Ouste, faller, 11/2

Buckstruther, 4th, 9/1

Take Me There, 5th, 9/4f

Eton Fable, 1st, 11/4f

Damn shame I was in the meeting this morning as I should have got 4/1 about Eton Fable but there you go what can you do! When the bank is at a decent enough level I might start employing somebody to place bets on my behalf to make sure I get the prices I'm after but a long way from that at present. Onwards to tomorrow.

Level stake results month by month

It's occurred to me that it might be useful for people stopping by this blog to have some sort of running total in terms of pure level stakes pointage. I'll do this monthly from now on. As it stands my own staking plan (as discussed elsewhere) creates a slightly lopsided feel to the cash results at times as I look to increase wins when the money's there and stem losses if we have a few defeats.

So here is the first month by month tally to a single point level stake betting plan - starting in November when this plan kicked into gear (before this blog started).

November - 29 bets - 3 wins - minus 10.5pts (Running total -10.5pts)
December - 43 bets - 9 wins - plus 25.5pts (Running total + 15pts)
January - 39 bets - 6 wins - plus 11pts (Running total + 26pts)
February - 33 bets - 4 wins - plus 0.5pts (Running total +26.5pts)
March - 70 bets - 6 wins - minus 22.75pts (Running total +3.25pts)
April (at present) 18 bets - 6 wins - plus 24.5pts (Running total +27.75pts)

The overall strike rate is 14.66% and the average win odds are 6.64/1 while the average price of selection is 8.53/1.

November wasn't a complete month and January and February were hit very badly by abandoned fixtures (I don't follow all weather moves as they've proved far too unreliable). Obviously March (and much of Feb in fact) was tough but as mentioned elsewhere it's going to happen every now and then with a relatively low strike rate. There were a horrible amount of seconds in there though.

Anyway come each month's end I'll update on here my current bank, with current bet size but also keep a note of these level stake profit/loss tallies to a single point.

Monday, 6 April 2009

Manic Monday

Very busy day ahead, with some big prices

Good luck to:

La Pantera Rosa Kelso 14:30 10/1 Coral
Annibale Caro Kelso 15:00 6/1 Sporting Bet
Efistorm Windsor 15:50 9/1 sporting bet
Majestic Chief Kelso 16:00 14/1 william hill
Popmurphy Windsor 16:20 9/2 bet365
Royal Envoy Windsor 16:50 11/1 william hill

A brilliant day today, with three straight wins in the middle there. It meant the bank has seen increased stakes throughout the day (a bit of a pain when you're busy at work incidentally!) Otherwise an unlucky unseated runner in the first, and a decent fourth to finish. Things are looking good.

La Pantera Rosa, UR, 10/1sp
Annibale Caro Kelso, 1st, 6/1
Efistorm Windsor , 1st, 5/1
Majestic Chief - NON RUNNER
Popmurphy Windsor, 1st 11/2 (guaranteed odds in play)
Royal Envoy Windsor, 4th, 10/1

The bank now stands at £160.64, with bets of £3.28.

It's possibly worth pointing out that if hadn't changed my staking plan when I did a couple of weeks ago the bank would be sitting on £241.95, but I won't dwell on it because my reasons for changing the plan were sound and still stand today. I'd love to be able to prove that I can turn £150 into a few thousand and not see the bank go bust along the way, and that is what I intend to do.

Sunday, 5 April 2009

Busy Sunday ahead

Five today being nicely backed

Good luck to :

Georgia Steel Southwell 14:10 4/1 William Hill

Sarahs Gift Southwell 14:40 6/1 Bet365

At The Money Market Rasen 15:00 4/1 William Hill

Portside Southwell 16:40 9/2 William Hill

Darinas Boy Hexham 16:50 6/1 Sporting Bet

Another profitable day. If it wasn't a terrible mid Feb to late March I'd be in very good profit, but c'est la vie.

At least things are turning around now (I knew reducing stakes would kick start things!). Two winners today anyway here's confirmation and SPs.

Georgia Steel, PU, 4-1sp

Sarahs Gift , 2nd, 3/1

At The Money 1st, 7-2

Portside, 3rd, 10-3

Darinas Boy Hexham 1st, 9-2

Saturday, 4 April 2009

Away from the National..

Two today, annoyingly both backed with Coral who don't offer guaranteed best odds.

Wanted to get on with Stan James with one of them but their website isn't loading (assuming it's temporarily down because of too much traffic, wonder how much £ that could cost them today)

Anyway it's good luck to:

Dechiper, Newcastle 15:05, 10/1

Aheadofhistime, Chepstow 16:05, 6/1

By the way here are my four for the big one today:

1) Himalayan Trail
2) Rambling Minster
3) Butler's Cabin
4) Offshore Account

Very open race though.

What a spectacle - I think it's my highlight of the sporting year!

Well a total wipe out in the National, but the system finds a nice winner at Chepstow!

Dechiper, 5th, 10/1sp

Aheadofhistime, 1st, 9/2

Friday, 3 April 2009

Three for a Friday

It's almost the National - can't wait! Himalayan Trail will probably win that by the way...

Anyway three today..

Silk Hall - Aintree 2.00 - 11/2 Stan James

Celtic Change - Musselburgh 4.40 - 9/2 Sporting Bet

Handcuff - Bath - 5.05 - 9/1 Bet365

Good luck to them all

Not a great day today, with the low point being Celtic Change being beaten in a photo. Thought Handcuff was a bit unlucky as well although probably wouldn't have won. Got the value again though.

Silk Hall - 5th - 5/1
Celtic Change - 2nd - 5/2
Handcuff - 4th - 7/1

Thursday, 2 April 2009

Just one today

So much racing today, but only one selection being backed enough to warrant inclusion

Cornus in the 5.40 at Leicester, 17/2 with VC bet.

Thought he ran a decent race, despite an awful ride. Beaten just over a length to finish 3rd in the end.

Cornus, 3rd, 9-1sp

Away from this one, at least I won a few quid by backing Madison du Berlais at Aintree today. Funny though, would probably have prefered Denman to go on and win well, just for the sake of racing, very sad to see him fall. Also what terrible news about Exotic Dancer, a real trier and will be badly missed.

Wednesday, 1 April 2009

Two today

Can it be a fourth profitable betting day in a row?

Hope so, as if either of these win the bank will be set at a new high so stakes will be adjusted for the future.

It's good luck to:

Cnoc Bay, 2.40 Exeter, 8-1 William Hill

Punching, 3.50 Catterick, 11-1 Boylesports

Not happening today, although I thought Punching was a tad unlucky in running.

Cnoc Bay, 5th 6-1sp

Punching, 10th, 9-1

The mad month of March

Just to put on here the final standings after March.

What a rubbish time was had, 70 bets and only six wins - a loss of some £133.57 in the end (- 56.9% of bank).

During that time there was a straight run of 30 losers, a record for my research and quite a few large priced runners up (including 20/1, 14/1 , 10/1).

Things have improved in the last few days which hopefully means we can continue the good form into April.

My overall strike rate is currently standing at 13.08%, where from my research I would be expecting at least 15% , so things have been under performing since the start of this betting plan (started November 19th 2008). I see no reason why things won't correct themselves in the next few weeks/months.

I haven't really ever set any proper targets for this, (apart from the overall slightly grandiose aim of "winning a fortune"!) and I prefer it this way, I don't want to feel hampered by profit plans and slipping behind. Having said that, I think it's safe to say I'd be disappointed if the bank wasn't sitting with at least £500 by this time next year. That may not seem like a large amount of money, but the fact is if that percentage increase can be repeated again by the following April the bank would then be on £2500, and then the following April again it would be £12500. It's going to take a while but I'm sure this can pay very generously in the long run, with a stable and steady staking plan. All will become clear in the months ahead!