Saturday, 25 April 2009

Three today and interesting findings

A while ago, when I first started following market movers, I used to have a very strict code for the horses I backed.

This proved successful (406 bets, 68 wins, average win odds 6.51/1, ROI 25.8%, Level stakes profit 104.75pts) but what was frustrating was the slightly low run of bets.

There'd be an average of two or three a week.

Since then my analysis has shown it pays to loosen up a bit, albeit at risk of damaging strike rate and ROI purely because the number of bets drive things forward.

Last night though, I sat down and worked out what my ROI/Strike rate would be if I stuck to my original method of finding selections since this latest effort. The findings are quite interesting:

38 bets
9 wins
Strike rate: 23.68%
Average winning odds: 6.75/1
ROI: 59.87%
Level stakes profit: 22.75pts

So over a smaller series, quite similar results to my plan of a couple of years ago.

So a dilemma, to stick to this or to somehow incorporate it into the bigger picture.

So after some thought, I've decided to incorporate the "super selection" process into my current plan, by purely doubling the stakes on the horses that are selected in this way.

Ironically the first of those selections runs today:

Good luck to:

Alsadaa Sandown 13:35 8/1 will hill

Hustle Leicester 13:55 5/1 bet365

The Artful Fox Market Rasen 14:15 16/1 sporting bet - DOUBLE STAKE

Obviously if The Artful Fox wins it'll be an excellent day.

Hope you have a great weekend - off for a golf lesson now!

Golf lesson went well but Alsadaa even better, scooting home to win easily.

Otherwise a non runner and not a good start for the new double stake system, still a profitable day!

Alsadaa, 1st, 13/2sp

Hustle Non Runner

The Artful Fox, 6th, 14/1

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