Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Bravo, Bravo Bravo

A cracking winner today in the shape of Bravo Bravo at Chepstow. We've had to be quite patient waiting for the right opportunities since our restart, but it paid off today with Mark Gillard's 5yo winning in good style.

We had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.15        Chepstow              Bravo Bravo                 1pt                           7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Bet Victor/Boylesports/Stan James 8/1 Totesport/Skybet/Betfred/Bluesq

And this was a pillar to post victory, with Tommy Phelan keeping his mount in the lead throughout and then decisively kicking for home four out to thrust Bravo Bravo clear. He made some really scratchy jumps in the closing straight, but still managed to win by more than two lengths and I think it's fair to say that if he'd have jumped better he'd have won by a good deal further, great stuff and a big well done (or should that be bravo) to connections.

Summary of Result

Bravo Bravo, 1st/8, 8/1 --- 8/1

Just a quick note about Bravo Bravo's BSP price - which was 12.78 (and he was matched at two or three points bigger than that just as the race started). Those who read our recent statistical summaries will know of the usual poor performance of horses which go off more than 2pts bigger at BSP from the advised price (strike rate of just over 6% - compared to 16.55% for those horses who go off no longer than 2pts larger) - but it just goes to show that horses of ours fairly weak just prior to the off can run big races, albeit it's not so common. It was an interesting exchange market just prior to the race actually, as Bravo Bravo was relatively solid, trading at around 8/1 for a good while right up to a minute or two before the off, but then drifted markedly, partly because of the sustained support for Noble Perk who opened at 4/1 and went off at 15/8. Not much more to be said really, just a word of warning that laying to recover stake at big prices can bite (albeit in this case returns of 8/1 of course would have dampened the loss somewhat). It's a strategy that over the long term could help strengthen profits, but it's certainly not without its dangers, and at present we are some way off making this "official" advice.

So we're six points up for the month, a good start since the break, and we look forward to seeing what tomorrow will bring.

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