Friday, 5 August 2011

July Analysis

Well it had to happen sooner or later, July saw our first monthly loss since January, and in the end a nice run of winners salvaged our position somewhat to only leave us a little bit down.

Bets: 70
Wins: 10 (14.29%)
2nds: 7 (10%)
3rds: 7 (10%)
Placed total: 24 (34.29%)
Average odds taken: 7.26/1
Average SP: 6.47/1
Average win odds: 6.02/1
Profit/Loss: -6.8pts
Return On Investment: -6.4%

We've been running at just short of 15% strike rate for much of this year, and again we were around that mark again. It's amazing really with all the selections we see go, the unlucky ones, those that got lucky, the fallers, the winners etc, that over time these stats just settle down and are so consistent. If nothing else it's a great way of helping to soak up losing runs knowing that things will turn (if things are going badly), and also not getting too carried away if we have a great flood of winners and thinking that will continue.

The thing that got us in terms of points this time was that our average win odds was a bit lower than we would have liked, and of course we can point to seven 2pt selections which all went down. Among these we had The Snail beaten a neck at 16/1, and a decent performance from Crosby Jemma who finished third (backed at 12/1 went off 7s - and promptly won next time at 14/1sp!).

We've a current losing sequence of 13 on 2pt selections, and this year have also had a losing run of 17, but we are still turning an ROI of 101.89% and showing 108pts profit this year from them, so we're not concerned by the current run at all. It's all about the long term as we keep banging on about!

The most important stat of all, that of whether we're beating SP, is again a bright spot, with our average taken price of 7.26/1 beating the average SP of 6.47/1. These taken prices are those odds which are readily available too for at least ten minutes, and many of our members would have got bigger average taken prices. For example we marked down Encompassing at 16/1 when Ladbrokes held their 25/1 for a good few minutes allowing many to get on at that price.

So while July was tough, with some poor runs, not helped probably by crazy weather patterns and heavy rain changing the going every few minutes (or so it seemed), we got through with our bank near enough in tact, and we look forward to getting our rewards for having that relentless average price edge on the bookies again before too long.

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