Thursday, 25 August 2011

It's a funny thing

Calendar months don't really mean a jot in the grand scheme of things. Over the course of 1000 bets plus, what does it matter how the winners are spread out, whether we get a flood of winners here, and a baron run there.

But when you're in a calendar month where things just aren't falling for you, it somehow does seem to matter. I suppose it's just good psychologically when things tick over nicely, a steady upward curve and all very relaxed.

We're 163.32pts up for 2011, running at just above +27%ROI, which we're really pleased about. But this month things are tough, it's just falling that way, it'll happen, but I certainly know it's not easy to stay positive and think long term the whole time when things are going against us.

I've built up a huge resistance to losing runs, but that's been built by backing our selections for years. I know things will sometimes spectacularly go our way (and we must enjoy those days, for all it's important to keep our feet on the ground), and I know sometimes things will go against us.

But what I'm very grateful for during these last few difficult weeks is how our members, however frustrated they may be, particularly those who've joined us recently, have kept their frustations to themselves (at least to us). It would be so easy to fire off angry emails, infuriated and concerned by current results, and I wouldn't blame them. But it hasn't been that way, and for that we say thank you.

Not that we'd mind getting grief of course, we would soak it up and keep on with our task, trying to reassure the concerned as best we can. But not having those angry notes to deal with has been, for us, one of the few positives of these last few weeks. We can conclude that our members are as stoic as us. Always thinking of the big picture and the long term goal, and treating poor runs for what they are, an inevitable jot on an otherwise relentless pursuit of profit, and that is extremely pleasing.

Anyway today we had another reminder of when the racing gods are out to get you, they're out to get you.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.10 Carlisle Captain Scooby 1pt 6/1 Coral/Totesport/PP/Boyle/Betfred/SportingBet
4.20 Ffos Las Am I Blue 1pt 6/1 generally 13/2 PP/VC 7/1 Lads/Coral
4.40 Carlisle Scottish Lake 1pt 9/2 generally 5/1 VC/Boyle

Captain Scooby was supported down to an SP of 9/2 and ran a luckless race. Blocked twice in running he finally broke clear to be a fast finishing fourth. But that wasn't the thing that got to us, nope, it was the fact that one of selections yesterday, Invincible Force, won the race at a ridiculous 18/1, virtually unbacked all day. It never rains bu.. It's not the first time we've seen this happen just lately, one of our selections winning at big prices soon after advised by us. We're going to investigate, look back at an enormous number of races and examine whether we can find a profitable line somewhere. Watch this space.

Am I Blue led and went well for a while but was outpaced when things got serious, after starting at 11/2.

And then Scottish Lake put in a good performance, staying on well to finish second, but a fair way behind the well handicapped winner who had flown, after starting at 9/2.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Captain Scooby, 4th/10, 6/1 --- 9/2
Am I Blue, 4th/7, 7/1 --- 11/2
Scottish Lake, 2nd/11, 9/2 --- 9/2

So, on to tomorrow!

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