Wednesday, 30 November 2011

November Analysis

As we've written about before, monthly updates don't really matter a whole lot, in terms of what we're looking for is profits over 12 months+. However it is of course quite interesting to see how we do month to month, so here's our look at November 2011.

We finished -6.5pts down in the end, and if we could have avoided the first seven days we'd have finished nicely in profit, such was our poor start to the month.

Here are the stats:

Bets: 54
Wins: 7 (12.96%)
2nds: 8 (14.81%)
3rds: 8 (14.81%)
Placed total: 14 (42.59%)
Average odds taken: 7.34/1
Average SP: 6.17/1
Average win odds: 6.21/1
Profit/Loss: -6.5pts
Return On Investment: -11.4%

Historically we would have expected one more winner than the seven we had, with our win rate a couple of ticks below standard (normally just shy of 15%). In the main, the selections have been running well, with more than 42% making the frame (naturally we ignore our third place finishers in races of less than eight runners). That placed monthly total is our third highest of 2011. With eight seconds at prices of up to 14/1 it's easy to see how the month could have been profitable, but still, it wasn't quite to be.

42 of our selections started either shorter or the same price as was available ten minutes after email delivery (78%), which is very pleasing, and we beat SP by an average of almost 1.2pts per selection. Multiply that by 1000 bets and you can see where our profits will come from going forward.

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