Slow end to a brilliant year - roll on 2012!

We would have liked to have gone out firing today on the last day of the year but we ended with just one selection, running at Warwick, and it was all a bit of a damp squib!

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.50 Warwick Silver Dollars 1pt 10/1+ generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Totesport&others 14/1 Bet365

Silver Dollars won this race last year but was a bit weak on course, drifting to 16/1 SP, and never really got involved at all, finishing off well behind the leaders.

Summary of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Silver Dollars, 7th/8, 12/1 --- 16/1

So with that, we wave goodbye to 2011, which has in the main been a fantastic year. Naturally we're disappointed to stutter somewhat to the finishing line, but if we had been offered a +20%ROI and near 160pt profit back on January 1st we certainly would have taken it. We'll complete a detailed yearly review in the next few days.

We wish you all a very Happy New Year and the very best for 2012.

No selections today

Quick one to say we had no selections today. Last day of the year tomorrow then and let's hope we end what's been a terrific 2011 on a high!

Gutsy winner

A cracking gutsy winner from our one selection today, Shadows Lengthen, at Doncaster.

Let's start the latest catch up yesterday, though, where we had one pick:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.00 Leicester Flichity 1pt 14/1+generally inc. 16/1 Bet365/Coral/StanJames&others some 20/1 Totesport

And there's not a great deal to be said about Flichity's effort. Never really travelling he was behind from an early stage, after starting at 16/1.

Then onto today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.20 Doncaster Shadows Lengthen 1pt 6/1+ generally 13/2 Lads/Hills&others 7/1 Bet365/Coral/VC/SportingBet

A complete contrast from yesterday's pick. Mick Easterby's 5yo was always travelling beautifully, and took it up three hurdles from home. It looked like he might go on to score quite comfortably, but the favourite battled back, helped by a small error by ours at the last, but Shadows Lengthen kept finding all the way to the line to win by a neck. Great stuff! Sadly a 20pt R4 reduced returns somewhat, but still, a good day.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday 28th December 2011:

Flichity, PU/9, 16/1 --- 16/1

Thursday 29th December 2011:

Shadows Lengthen, 1st/7, 7/1 --- 5/1

The result leaves December 5.6pts in profit, and with a couple more days of the year left, to hopefully lock in some more profit if and when the opportunities arise.

Festive catch-up

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +278.07pts

So we've had a couple of days since Christmas Day, and we're slightly up from where we were from our last main update.

Let's start yesterday, Boxing Day, where we had five selections:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.30 Wincanton Tuskar 1pt 7/2+ inc. 4/1 Totesport/Betfred 9/2 Bet365/Skybet
12.45 Huntingdon Eliades Run 1pt 11/2+ inc. 6/1 Hills 13/2 PP 7/1 Lads/Coral
1.15 Wetherby Trecase 2pt 11/1+ generally inc. 12/1 Coral/VC/Lads/Boyles 14/1 Hills/PP
2.10 Market Rasen River Dragon 1pt 13/2+ generally inc 7/1 Lads/PP/Coral&others
2.20 Wetherby Arctic Wings 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 PP/SportingBet 8/1 Hills

It's safe to say that things started off poorly to say the least.

Tuskar drifted like a barge (SP 12/1) and ran accordingly. His stable-mate was backed late but also ran poorly. This is a stable we approach with caution and we'll be even more vigilant going forward.

At least a little bit of value was had with Eliades Run who started at 6/1, though should have been 66/1 given the performance. Struggling almost immediately, it was only a matter of time before he was pulled up. Surely this wasn't the horse's true running.

Trecase continued the disappointment and wins the award for biggest drift of the year. Well let's just say 2pts at 33/1 would have been a good retun with BOG in play if he had made a mockery of those seemingly keen to lay at whatever price they could on the exchanges. Sadly, as is often the case, no mockery was had and the horse despite substantial morning support ran extremely poorly, although at least did get round! This was strange market activity and this one may just be one to keep half an eye out for going forward.

So with these results in the books we were certainly hoping for an upturn, and we got it from a cracking performance from River Dragon at Market Rasen. He looked a bit flat footed for a stride or two as the pace quickened but he relentlessly wore down the principles to win in the end very comfortably, after starting a very well supported 100/30.

So could Arctic Wings give us a quick-fire double to end the day very strongly? Sadly not, he stayed on nicely towards the end to get placed, but was never quite getting there, beaten just over five lengths in third, after starting at 8/1.

So when the dust settled, we were left with a profit of two points from our five selections.

On to today, Tuesday 27th December, and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Chepstow Plein Pouvoir 1pt 6/1+generally inc 13/2 Bet365/Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet

Plein Pouvoir travelled sweetly for a long time in the testing conditions at Chepstow, trading just over 6/4 in running quite some way from home. But sadly it wasn't to be, as he began to struggle when things got serious and he ended up being run out of the places, after going off at 6/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP:)

Monday 26th December 2011:

Tuskar, PU/12, 9/2 --- 12/1

Eliades Run, PU/8 7/1 --- 6/1

Trecase, 9th/12, 14/1 --- 33/1

River Dragon, 1st/9, 7/1 --- 100/30

Arctic Wings, 3rd/11, 8/1 -- 8/1

Tuesday 27th December 2011:

Plein Pouvoir, 5th/14, 13/2 --- 6/1

So, not many days left of 2011, let's hope we can end the year with something of a bang.

Good Boxing Day

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +279.07pts

We hope you're having a great Christmas. What a star Kauto is! Just a quick one tonight to say we had a nice 7/1 winner today. Not so good from our four other picks, but a nice profit on the day nonetheless!

Full update tomorrow.

All the best.

No early present this year

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +277.07pts

Well, no early present today, with a couple of disappointing performances.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.20 Sedgefield Samson Collonges 1pt 5/1 generally
2.20 Sedgefield Sleep In First 1pt 8/1 generally maybe some 9/1 Boylesports

Both these came in nicely in price, though sadly both failed to deliver.

Samson Collonges was well supported into 11/4 at the off, but just never got involved. Held up off the pace, as he tried to get competitive he made a mistake five out which just about finished him off, although he never looked like landing a blow, very disappointing.

Then came Sleep In First, who started at 6/1, and raced wide looking for the better ground. He looked a possible player for a moment or two as he began to close on the leaders but sadly the run soon flattened out.

Confirmation of results with prices (Advised --- SP):

Samson Collonges, 8th/13, 5/1 --- 11/4
Sleep In First, 7th/12, 8/1 --- 6/1

We hope you have a very Merry Christmas.

Quiet day

Just a quick one tonight to say we had no selections today.

Last day of action before the Christmas break tomorrow, so hopefully we can get stuck in and find one or two decent winners!

Great winner

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +279.07pts

A great winner this afternoon in the form of Triple Bluff, who won with any amount in hand at Taunton. No such luck with our other selection, so we finish the day 6pts up.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00 Taunton Legion D'Honneur 1pt 6/1 generally
2.30 Taunton Triple Bluff 1pt 7/1 generally

Legion D'Honneur was a bit short of room as he tried to creep closer to the leaders and after that he was never really in it, although he was staying on again towards the finish, after going off at 8/1.

Then came Triple Bluff, who continued to be nicely backed into 5/1 and won like a 1/5 shot, always tanking along, taking it up about five fences from home, and just cantering clear of a struggling field. It was just a case of surviving the last couple of jumps, and though he wasn't hugely tidy, he did it nicely enough and ended up winning eased down. Lovely stuff!

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Legion D'Honneur, 9th/11, 6/1 --- 8/1
Triple Bluff, 1st/10, 7/1 --- 5/1

Not quite golden

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +273.07pts

Well, no returns today but a couple of decent efforts and at least we got a value price with both of these, which hasn't been the case as often as we would like just lately.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00 Plumpton It's A Classic 1pt 5/1 generally
2.30 Plumpton Jenny's Gold 2pt 11/1+generally 12/1 Lads/Hills/Totesport/Coral/PaddyPower among others

It's A Classic ran well, but was just a bit unlucky to run into one obviously well ahead of the handicapper. Always up there, he stayed on quite nicely, into a clear second, but was never going to get close to the winner, after starting at 7/2.

Then came Jenny's Gold, our third 2pt pick in the last few days. She travelled nicely for a good part of the race and looked like she might be a player as they approached home, touching just over 2/1 in running. But her effort emptied out and she finished 6th in the end, after going off at 9/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

It's A Classic, 2nd/11, 5/1 --- 7/2
Jenny's Gold, 6th/12, 12/1 --- 9/1

It's been a pretty frustrating last few days, so let's hope we get a bit of Christmas cheer tomorrow!

All quiet

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +276.07pts

We didn't have any selections today, 18th December. Hope you had a profitable Sunday if you got involved!

Poor couple of days

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +276.07pts

We've missed the target these last couple of days, all a bit frustrating, and we've had a couple more big priced 2pt efforts go awry. We've still got a cracking record with these in 2011, but it's been a while since one came home and we're certainly looking forward to when one or two roll in, as variance begins to right itself again.

Anyway let's start our latest look back with yesterday's two picks:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.45 Uttoxeter Desert Nova 2pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Lads/Bet365/VC/Boyles/Stan James/SportingBet
2.55 Uttoxeter Captain Tidds 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Bet365/Lads/Stan James

Desert Nova went on a bit of a walk in the market pre-race, but ran with credit despite that, looking a threat for much of the contest, travelling nicely, but not being able to have the finishing kick when needed. He started at 18/1.

Captain Tidds looked beaten when unseating four out.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.25 Ascot Fix The Rib 2pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Totesport/Paddy Power&others 16/1 Lads/SkyBet
1.35 Newcastle La Pantera Rosa 1pt 11/2+ generally inc. maybe some 6/1 Boylesports

Pretty poor from both these today really. Fix The Rib led as he likes to do, but his run flattened out a fair way from home. He started at 12/1.

La Pantera Rosa went on a huge pre-race drift, doubling in odds in the space of a few minutes, which we've found to be unusual for backed Micky Hammond runners. After leading for a good while, he faded before four out to finish well beaten, after going off at 10/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 16th December 2011:

Desert Nova, 4th/13, 14/1 --- 18/1
Captain Tidds, UR/8, 10/1 --- 12/1

Saturday 17th December 2011:

Fix The Rib, 7th/10, 16/1 --- 12/1
La Pantera Rosa, 7th/9, 11/2 --- 10/1

So, a frustrating couple of days, and hopefully Carlisle will be on tomorrow so we can get a chance to spin the weekend around into profit.

Going close

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +282.07pts

We went pretty close to following up yesterday's winner with our one selection today finishing a decent third at Exeter.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Exeter Me Julie 1pt 7/1 generally

Arthur Whiting's 8yo set off in the lead and she travelled very sweetly for much of the race. A furlong or two from home she just began to feel it a little, and when the challengers came she wasn't quite able to fend them off, ending up finishing third, beaten only a couple of lengths, after starting at 6/1. A good effort and for a moment or two it looked like she might be able to skip clear and win quite comfortably. Not to be though and we look forward to tomorrow.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Me Julie, 3rd/9, 7/1 --- 6/1

Getting up on the line

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +283.07pts

A terrific 8/1 winner today, with Share Option getting up on the line to win the 2.50 at Bangor, rewarding an excellent, determined ride from 3lb claimer Lee Edwards.

We had three going for us in total today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.40 Bangor Drom 1pt 8/1 generally
1.10 Bangor Bear Dancing 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred/StanJames
2.50 Bangor Share Option 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2VC&others 6/1 Bet365/Lads/Totesport&others

Drom continued to nicely backed into 11/2, and ran well for a good while, before fading from about four out, to finish 5th.

Bear Dancing travelled nicely enough before making a mistake after which he never seemed to really be travelling and ended up getting pulled up, after going off at 11/2.

Then came Share Option, who won a dramatic conditional jockeys handicap. Always going nicely enough, it looked as though he was going to have to settle for minor honours when Pampelonne went for home and stretched about four lengths clear going to the last. But while the leader met the last ok, he seemed to lose his back legs momentarily, which gave the initiative to Tony Carroll's 9yo who stayed on really strongly under a cracking ride by Lee Edwards to get up by a neck. While he was backed into around 4/1 earlier in the day, he drifted to 8/1 by the off which gave us a couple of extra points thanks to BOG.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Drom, 5th/11, 8/1 --- 11/2

Bear Dancing, PU/9, 11/2 --- 6/1

Share Option, 1st/10, 6/1 --- 8/1

On to tomorrow!

Maria misses the target

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +277.07pts

Just the one selection today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40 Folkestone Maria's Rock 1pt 7/2+ generally 4/1 Hills/Coral/Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred/SportingBet

Maria's Rock was making her seasonal reappearance and ran well enough for a long way before not being able to go with the two leaders, to finish in the end third, but beaten a fair way, after starting at 4/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Maria's Rock, 3rd/10, 4/1 --- 4/1

A step backwards

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +278.07pts

It's been quite a slow few days since our last update, three picks on Friday, none on Saturday, and one each on Sunday and Monday.

Let's start on Friday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.35 Doncaster Blake Dean 1pt 5/1+ generally inc. 11/2 VC/Hills/PP 6/1 Bet365/Coral
1.45 Cheltenham Mostly Bob 1pt 5/1+ generally inc. 11/2 Lads&others 6/1 Hills/Bet365
2.45 Doncaster Royal Kicks 1pt 9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Hills/Lads/SkyBet/Boyle/SportingBet/StanJames

Blake Dean went off at 9/2 and was given a patient ride from the back for much of the contest, his handicap debut. While he stayed on nicely towards the end he was never going to get too near the principles, finishing sixth, around nine lengths behind the winner (a recent selection of ours, Arrow Barrow).

Then came Mostly Bob at Cheltenham, who made far too many errors to stay competitive in a quality handicap like the one he was racing in, finishing 5th after going off 9/2.

Royal Kicks (6/1sp) may have got us a return, but we'll never know, falling at the ninth fence.

We had no selections on Saturday, and on Sunday just the one:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.45 Hereford Border Lad 1pt 6/1+ generally inc. 13/2 Hills/Stan James/SkyBet 7/1 Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred

The conditions at Hereford were really testing by the time we got to the last race and while Border Lad travelled sweetly enough early on, he gradually began to struggle and finished well tailed off, after starting at 13/2.

And then today (Monday) we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Fakenham Monroe Park 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 VC&others 12/1 Coral/Totesport/Betfred

Monroe Park went off a nicely supported 7/1 and was moving quite promisingly for a while, before not being able to quicken when asked to, and he ended up pulling up, a frustrating effort.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 9th December 2011:

Blake Dean, 6th/12, 6/1 --- 9/2

Mostly Bob, 5th/6, 11/2 --- 9/2

Royal Kicks, F/8, 5/1 --- 6/1

Saturday 10th December 2011:

No selections

Sunday 11th December 2011:

Border Lad, 12th/16, 7/1 --- 13/2

Monday 12th December 2011:

Monroe Park, PU/11, 10/1 --- 7/1

So while we may have beaten SP in four of these last five selections, we'll certainly look for better results tomorrow.

By the way, can we wish very happy retirements to Denman and The Tatling, racing will miss them both, and how great it was to see The Tatling win today in his last race at the age of 14.

Marvellous Midnight

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +283.07pts

A cracking winner today to push December back to +6pts, with Midnight Haze putting in a really gutsy performance to win, in the end, quite comfortably at Ludlow today.

We had three selections in all:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.20 Taunton She's On The Case 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Coral/Boylesports maybe some 6/1 SkyBet 13/2 SportingBet
2.40 Ludlow Midnight Haze 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Hills/Skybet/SportingBet/Stan James
3.10 Ludlow Bill The Yank 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Hills/VC/Coral&others maybe some 11/1 Stan James

She's On The Case (SP 5/1) was held up out the back, but couldn't quicken through the field quickly enough to get competitive, although she stayed on nicely enough into fourth to show that she probably has a race in her before too long.

Midnight Haze was the star of the day, helping to force the pace throughout in pretty rough conditions, he battled ahead, repelling a series of challengers to storm home in the end by more than ten lengths. Another great training performance with Kim Bailey's 9yo winning again after a long lay off, this time around eleven months, after starting at 9/2.

Bill The Yank was reported to have returned lame, finishing tailed off, after doubling in odds in the hour pre-race (SP 16/1).

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

She's On The Case, 4th/13, 11/2 --- 5/1

Midnight Haze, 1st/9, 6/1 --- 9/2

Bill The Yank, 9th/9, 10/1 --- 16/1

Interestingly, three of our recent selections performed with credit again today. Qualitee won at 3/1, Inga Bird won at 10/1 and Posh Emily came third at 16/1. These three came 1st, 2nd and 1st for us respectively in the last two or three weeks.

Poor show

Running Total Since January 1st 2010: +279.07pts

A nothing sort of showing from our first 2pt pick of December, pretty frustrating.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.00 Leicester Ranjobaie 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Hills 12/1 Lads/Totesport/Boylesport/Betfred/SportingBet

This Venetia Williams trained 6yo was nicely backed for a good while but went on a huge pre-race drift which set the alarm bells ringing, and so it proved. Seemingly going well enough in mid division he dropped away and was soon pulled up a long way from home. This horse is getting dangerously well handicapped and is the type to pop up somewhere, just not for us today.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Ranjobaie, PU/11, 12/1 --- 16/1

Some decent looking NH racing tomorrow so there could be plenty of opportunities to get stuck into, so we're looking forward to that.

Going close

We've been going close over these last couple of days, but it's not quite worked out, including a selection today who very possibly would have won had he not made a complete mess of the second last fence.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.50 Musselburgh Everaard 1pt 7/1 generally (bog)

2.10 Plumpton Manmoon 1pt 6/1+ generally inc. 13/2 HillsCoral, Boyles 7/1 Bet365, Skybet, Sportingbet

Everaard ran a solid race, always up there with the leaders but just not quite able to have that finishing kick to get in front, finishing third, beaten around six lengths, after starting at 8/1.

Manmoon put in a good showing, positively ridden he was bang up there throughout and looked a big player close to home, trading as short as 1.26, but he just couldn't finish the job, and came third, beaten less than a couple of lengths after starting at 15/2.

Then today we had another selection go short in running before being turned over:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Fontwell Caspar Of Tarsus 1pt 7/1 generally 8/1 Lads

3.40 Fontwell Pur De Sivola 1pt 8/1+generally 9/1 VC/Coral/PP 10/1 Lads/Bluesq 11/1 Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet

The horse in question being Caspar of Tarsus (sp 6/1), who always travelled strongly and looked a massive player in the closing stages, being asked to take the lead going over the second last. Unfortunately that's where he met the fence all wrong and Paddy Brennan did really well to stay on. To the gelding's great credit, he rallied again and took it up going over the last, but looked tired, with the energy used in staying on his feet two out possibly telling, and he was out on his feet close home, fading to finish fourth in the end. A really brave effort and after hitting 1.21 in running possibly one that got away.

Not so good from Pur De Sivola, who drifted on track to 16/1 on his first start for nearly a couple of years. He was up there for a while and just for a moment looked like being a player, but soon dropped through the field to finish well back

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday December 5th 2011:

Everaard, 3rd/12, 7/1 --- 8/1

Manmoon, 3rd/10, 7/1 --- 15/2

Tuesday December 6th 2011:

Caspar of Tarsus, 4th/10, 8/1 --- 6/1

Pur De Sivola, 9th/11, 11/1 --- 16/1

So, four points dropped in the last couple of days and with a couple of our selections going pretty low odds-on in running we can probably count ourselves a bit unlucky to have not registered a winner. Still, selections continue to run well in the main and we look forward to hopefully getting back to the winners enclosure tomorrow.

December further into profit

Our good start to December continues, with a nice 5/1 winner today.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Kelso Lady Bluesky 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Stan James
2.30 Kelso Nine De Sivola 1pt 6/1+generally 7/1 Lads/Totesport & others

Lady Bluesky ran out a wonderfully gutsy winner. She upped the pace in the middle of the contest, and stayed on really bravely to win by just over a length, after starting at 5/1. Great to see a really genuine mare get her rewards.

Then in the Scottish Borders National, Nine De Sivola (SP 7/1) couldn't follow up. He was making ground at one stage which for a moment or two looked promising, but the challenge faded and he ended up getting pulled up.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Lady Bluesky, 1st/10, 5/1 --- 5/1
Nine De Sivola, PU/12, 7/1 --- 7/1

So December is 8pts to the good with two winners from our five selections, and we look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings.

Quiet couple of days

Just the one runner since our last update, which was yesterday and was unplaced. Today's was pulled out as a non-runner.

So on Friday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Exeter Sound Accord 1pt 12/1+generally inc, 14/1 in many places inc. Lads/Bet365/Hills/PP, 16/1 Boylesports

Which didn't really work out. First he went off at 20/1 at post time, and although he showed up well enough for a long time, he faded before the end and ended up getting pulled up.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.45 Wetherby Cool Operator 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred

Who unfortunately was a non-runner.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 2nd December 2011

Sound Accord, PU/13, 14/1 --- 20/1

Saturday 3rd December 2011

Cool Operator NR

Hope you're having a good weekend so far, roll on tomorrow!

Good start to December

We're off and running for December, with a solid five points profit secured thanks to a very comfortable success with our first selection of the month.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00 Leicester Fiendish Flame 1pt 11/2+generally 6/1 Lads/Hills/Boyles
2.10 Wincanton Tarquinius 1pt 7/2+generally 4/1 Lads/Coral

It's very unusual that we have selections also made by Hugh Taylor, but conditions were right today and Fiendish Flame ran out an extremely impressive winner. Leading from the start, he was never headed and saw his rivals off one at a time, unchallenged, to win by nearly 20 lengths, after going off at 11/2. Lovely stuff.

Tarquinius couldn't follow up (SP 4/1). He was prominent for a long time, but dropped away tamely to be pulled up four from home.

Confirmation of selections with prices (advised --- SP):

Fiendish Flame, 1st/6, 6/1 --- 11/2

Tarquinius, PU/7, 4/1 --- 4/1

So a good start to the month, and on to tomorrow we go!

November Analysis

As we've written about before, monthly updates don't really matter a whole lot, in terms of what we're looking for is profits over 12 months+. However it is of course quite interesting to see how we do month to month, so here's our look at November 2011.

We finished -6.5pts down in the end, and if we could have avoided the first seven days we'd have finished nicely in profit, such was our poor start to the month.

Here are the stats:

Bets: 54

Wins: 7 (12.96%)

2nds: 8 (14.81%)

3rds: 8 (14.81%)

Placed total: 14 (42.59%)

Average odds taken: 7.34/1

Average SP: 6.17/1

Average win odds: 6.21/1

Profit/Loss: -6.5pts

Return On Investment: -11.4%

Historically we would have expected one more winner than the seven we had, with our win rate a couple of ticks below standard (normally just shy of 15%). In the main, the selections have been running well, with more than 42% making the frame (naturally we ignore our third place finishers in races of less than eight runners). That placed monthly total is our third highest of 2011. With eight seconds at prices of up to 14/1 it's easy to see how the month could have been profitable, but still, it wasn't quite to be.

42 of our selections started either shorter or the same price as was available ten minutes after email delivery (78%), which is very pleasing, and we beat SP by an average of almost 1.2pts per selection. Multiply that by 1000 bets and you can see where our profits will come from going forward.

Qualitee is Quality

We had no selections yesterday, but today we had a winning day to end the month, with Qualitee running out a terrific winner at Uttoxeter for us. We had one placed from our other three selections.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.00 Catterick Emotive 1pt 5/1 genererally inc. Bet365/Lads 11/2 Totesport/Betfred

2.50 Hereford Ours 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/Hills/VC/Coral/PP/Totesport&others
3.10 Uttoxeter Qualitee 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Lads/Hills/Coral/Boylesports
3.20 Hereford Just Playfull 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Hills/Coral/Boylesports 9/1Totesport/Skybet/Betfred

Emotive was weak on course and started at 13/2 and never really showed at all in a disappointing effort.

Ours, who went off at 15/2 after being very strongly supported this morning, was up there for a good part of the race but suddenly dropped away and was pulled out. Perhaps something was amiss?

Then we had Qualitee, who was well backed right into 7/2 on her first handicap start over the minimum chase trip. She was given a lovely positive ride, and jumped for fun and the win was never in much doubt some way from home. She won by 17 lengths officially.

And then we looked to Just Playfull to really give us a nice end to the month, and was pleased to see him supported into 11/2 SP. He raced prominently, jumping nicely for the most part, but just lost his place a couple from home, finishing third, comfortably clear of fourth.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Emotive, 8th/11, 5/1 --- 13/2

Ours, PU/9, 6/1 --- 15/2

Qualitee, 1st/7, 13/2 --- 7/2

Just Playfull, 3rd/11, 9/1 --- 11/2

So November ends positively, and with plenty of grounds for optimism for the coming weeks. We've had more than 40% of our selections placed this month, with no less than eight seconds, and it won't take much of a tweak in fortune to have us make big strides forward again.

We'll be doing our monthly review soon.

Kilkenny the star

A small profit from the last update, with one winner at 13/2 kicking off our Saturday, but things not quite building from there.

So let's start on Saturday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.45 Bangor Kilkenny All Star 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Hills/VC/Coral & others

2.05 Newbury Titan De Sarti 1pt 8/1 in most places
3.00 Bangor Arctic Wings 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Skybet/SportingBet 8/1 Totesport/Betfred
3.45 Newbury Osric 1pt 9/1 in most places

Kilkenny All Star gave us a perfect start to Saturday, who was nicely backed for Sue Smith into 5/1. He had dropped to a good mark and was given a terrific, determined ride and he got up near the line. Lovely!

On to Titan De Sarti, who disputed the lead for much of the race before about three out and then faded away, after going off at 13/2.

Arctic Wings was next up, and again we got the price with Tony Carroll's six year old going off at 5/1. He probably wasn't helped by the dawdle they went early on, and subsequently got outpaced when things quickened up three out. He then stayed on well into fourth, an annoying race really from our point of view.

Then came Osric who went off a very well supported 7/2 and looked to be coming with a promising run as they turned for home, but he couldn't sustain it to finish 6th.

On Sunday we had a second placed finish from our one selection which ran:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.25 Carlisle Etxalar 1pt 11/2 +generally inc. 6/1 Bet365/Skybet/Boylesports

3.00 Carlisle City Ground 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/Stan James 9/1 Skybet/Boylesports 10/1 Totesport/Betfred/Bluesq

Etxalar ran a good race, always there and in contention, but he just couldn't quite go with the eventual winner and although he stayed on again, he could only finish 2nd, beaten six lengths, after going off at 11/2.

City Ground was a non-runner.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.30 Folkestone What's For Tea 1pt 14/1+generally inc. 16/1 Lads/Coral/VC/Boyle/SportingBet

And we'll never know whether we missed out on a decent pay day, with Paddy Butler's mare going off a nicely backed 9/1 but being brought down by the favourite at the second hurdle...

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 26th November 2011:

Kilkenny All Star, 1st/6, 13/2 --- 5/1

Titan De Sarti, 8th/11, 8/1 --- 13/2

Arctic Wings, 4th/9, 7/1 --- 5/1

Osric, 6th/ 14 9/1 --- 7/2

Sunday 27th November 2011:

Etxalar, 2nd/7, 6/1 --- 11/2

City Ground NR

Monday 28th November 2011:

What's For Tea, BD/6, 16/1 --- 9/1

So a 1.5pt profit since the end of Friday.

Just to say as well, our thoughts are of course with Gary Speed's friends and family. A real footballing legend who will be very sadly missed.

Poor day

Well last Friday we were heading into the weekend with a bit of a spring in our step after one winner from our one selection.

Not so this week, with four picks today not doing the business, although at least one gave us a good run for our money, finishing second after trading odds on, not that that's any great consolation!

So we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.10 Musselburgh Isla Patriot 1pt 8/1+ generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/VC/Coral/Betfred/Bluesq

2.35 Doncaster Gentleman Anshan 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Totesport 7/1 Lads/VC/SportingBet/Bluesq
2.45 Newbury Carribs Leap 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Lads/Coral/Totesport&others maybe some 10/1 Boyle
2.55 Musselburgh Sheriff Hall 1pt 6/1+generally inc 13/2 VC/Boyle

Three of these four started shorter than we had this morning (as usual, prices taken ten minutes after email delivery).

Isla Patriot went off a nicely supported 6/1 shot and looked promising for a stride or two about four from home, but his run soon flattened out.

Gentleman Anshan was our drifter, going off at 10/1 but looked to be going nicely as they turned for home but frustratingly soon lost his place.

Carribs Leap was in mid division and throughout apart from when things quickened, and he was well beaten, after starting at 8/1.

And so we turned to Sheriff Hall, who did his best to make the day a profitable one for us. He eased into a big lead, which he held until he was headed going over the last fence, and to his great credit he battled back, and was a bit short of room as he had to be switched right, but he went down a battling second, after going off at 9/2.

Confirmation of prices with prices (advised --- SP):

Isla Patriot, 7th/8, 8/1 --- 6/1

Gentleman Anshan, 5th/9, 13/2 --- 10/1

Carribs Leap, 8th/10, 9/1 --- 8/1

Sheriff Hall, 2nd/10, 6/1 --- 9/2

We'll try to update over the weekend, but it's most likely that our next update will be on Monday. Until then, have a great weekend!

Excellent Emily

A nice winner today, so a 3pt profit since the last update.

Let's start yesterday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.50 Fontwell Madame Jasmine 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Hills/Stan James 7/1 Lads/Coral/Boylesports

We got some nice value with Madame Jasmine, with the selection going off at 4/1, but didn't get our rewards, although she didn't run too badly. She traded at just over 6/4 in running as she closed on the leaders but seemed to not quite stay the trip and finished third.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Newbury Tony Star 1pt 13/2+ generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Bet365/Boyle/Totesport/SkyBet/Betfred/Bluesq

4.00 Taunton Posh Emily 1pt 5/1 generally and maybe some 11/2 Totesport/BetFred

We got the price with these two as well.

Tony Star ran pretty well for Philip Hobbs, staying on nicely, well clear of third, just a shame he ran into one much too good in Paul Nicholls' Empire Levant, after going off at 9/2.

And then we turned to Posh Emily to give us a return, and so she did. Always up there, it looked like the eventual second had skipped clear, and she actually traded 100 in running before finishing really powerfully to win quite comfortably in the end, by nearly a couple of lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday 23rd November 2011:

Madame Jasmine, 3rd/6, 13/2 --- 4/1

Thursday 24th November 2011:

Tony Star, 2nd/6, 7/1 --- 9/2

Posh Emily, 1st/7, 5/1 --- 7/2

We're still a bit down for the month but since November 7th we're 7.5pts up and there's still plenty of time to spin the month into profit, let's hope we can bag a decent priced winner or two in the next few days, we're due one.

Ready for lift off

Not a great last couple of days and November's proving a bit of a frustrating month. Just when things get back on track and we look to kick on, things have just dropped away a little again.

If feels like it's time for a decent bank boost, long term members know that when they come along things really can be explosive. It's been a little while now since our last rush, and every day which passes means we're closer to variance falling back on our side again.

Anyway let's start our look back with yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40 Kempton Missionaire 1pt 4/1+generally 9/2 VC, ToteSport&others, 5/1 Lads

And Missionaire was not our finest hour of 2011. A big mover in the morning, he went on a huge drift on-course, and went off an extraordinary 12/1. Not really the idea and so it panned out. Although he was up there for a while, and actually looked to be travelling ok for a moment or too, he weakened out of it when the pace quickened to finish fourth.

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Sedgefield Ottos Quercus 1pt 6/1+ generally inc/ 13/2 Bet365/Coral/Boyle 7/1 Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet/Bluesq

3.00 Sedgefield Finbin 1pt 8/1 generally
3.30 Sedgefield Arrow Barrow 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 7/1 Bet365/Totesport/Coral/Betfred/Stan James

3.30 Sedgefield Lochore 1pt 10/1 generally

Ottos Quercus was held up and made some good ground up to get placed in third but was never really able to challenge the front two, after being nicely backed into 9/2.

Finbin drifted to 10/1 and never travelled a yard.

Better were the displays from Arrow Barrow and Lochore, who both looked possible contenders at various stages. Arrow Barrow travelled nicely for a long time, but faded into fourth, while Lochore came with a good looking challenge but couldn't follow it through. They started at 11/2 and 8/1 respectively.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 21st November 2011

Missionaire, 4th/7, 9/2 --- 12/1

Tuesday 22nd November 2011

Ottos Quercus, 3rd/10, 13/2 --- 9/2

Finbin, PU/10, 8/1 --- 10/1

Arrow Barrow, 4th/14, 7/1 --- 11/2

Lochore, 6th/14, 10/1 --- 8/1

On to tomorrow!