January Analysis

In 2011 we'll be analysing our results on a monthly basis with a few stats to look back at how things have gone.

January was a frustrating month, with a relatively high number of second placed finishes, and five losers trading 1/3 in running or shorter.

Our strike rate at 11.76% is a shade under the 14% we would be ideally wanting as a minimum, but not far away.

What was most disappointing however was how our "strongest" selections pushed the month into a loss, with eight 2pt selections losing. If we'd have backed every horse with 1pt - we would be looking at 5pt profit for the month (7.35% ROI), but as it is we lost 3pts (-3.95% ROI).

Arguably the most important stat of all though is whether we are beating SP, and the good news is that we averaged 7.86/1 with our morning prices, and the SPs averaged at 6.89/1. It's this stat which should secure our long term profits.

So here we go:

January 2011

Bets 68

Wins 8 (11.76%)

2nds: 11 (16.18%)

3rds: 10 (14.71%)

Placed total: 29 (42.65%)

Average odds taken: 7.86/1

Average SP: 6.89/1

Profit / Loss: -3pts

So a steady month all told, now we can't wait to see what February brings!

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Quiet end to January

We would loved to have ended January with a bang today, but Ludlow being abandoned didn't help and while there was the odd move or two at Ayr, it was nothing which made a selection for us.

We'll be back later with some analysis of the year so far.

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Hitting the post

A good performance from our one selection today, but despite trading odds on we weren't quite able to make it 2/2 for the weekend.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.05 Hereford Saphir Des Bois 1pt 5/1 VC/Boylesports

It was Saphir Des Bois' first run for quite a while and he was well backed to do the business, starting at 3/1 in what looked quite a competitive handicap chase. Only two ever really got into it however, with Peter Bowen's 7yo and the eventual winner Grand Lahou well clear of the field.

It looked likely that the selection would pick off the long time leader, and he traded at 1.41 in running to do just that, but unfortunately he couldn't quite manage it, going down by a length in the end, 16 lengths clear of third.

Still, it's been a good week since Monday, with 11 points of profit, and hopefully we can end January on a high tomorrow.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised and SP)

Saphir Des Bois, 2nd/9, 5/1 --- 3/1

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Hitting the target

Excellent result today, from our one selection. We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Uttoxeter Pegasus Prince 1pt 10/1 Lads/VC

This was quite a hot novices handcap hurdle and we had a cracking winner with James Reveley giving Pegasus Prince a great ride to win by nearly two lengths. Always travelling comfortably he was held up nicely and came through really strongly to win a shade cosily, after going off at 8/1. A cracking result and hopefully there'll be racing at both Hereford and Fakenham tomorrow to give us a chance of continuing to push on.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP).

Pegasus Prince, 1st/9, 10/1 ---- 8/1

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No selections today

Despite a very busy morning in the markets all told, there were no suitable candidates for us today.

Inspections are due at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Doncaster tomorrow so let's just really hope tonight isn't as cold as the forecasters are predicting....

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Frustrations

A slight change to how we review the action, from now on we'll be listing the bets as we send them out earlier in the day.

This was yesterday, 26th January:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.05 Muss. King Penda 1pt 5/1 Coral (11/2 Stan James)

3.35 Muss. Go Silver Bullet 1pt 15/2 VC

King Penda opened at 4/1 on course before drifting to 11/2 on his chasing debut, and was struggling some way from home and ended up pulled up.

Not much better from Go Silver Bullet, who jumped quite poorly after starting at 11/2, and ended up a well beaten fifth.

Today, January 27th 2011:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.50 Ffos Las Charming Lad 1pt 5/1 Boylesports

2.15 Warwick Playing With Fire 1pt 6/1 Coral/Lads

3.25 Warwick The Gripper 1pt 7/1 Coral/Bet365/Lads

We well and truly had the prices with our first two selections, with clearly lots expected from both. Not to be though on a frustrating day, which ended in sad circumstances.

Charming Lad was 2/1 for a while on track but started at 3s, and although he was there or thereabouts for a while, couldn't go with them when push came to shove and ended fourth.

Playing With Fire started at almost half the odds we had, 7/2, and she ran well, finishing a close up third when holding every chance at the last. This was the race where Tony McCoy performed heroics again, winning on the favourite Folie A Deux, who was matched for more than £100 at 1000 on Betfair in running. All jockeys who give up on their mounts too early - please take note.

Finally The Gripper was was up with them early on, but jumped the fourth fence poorly and very sadly pulled up fatally injured shortly afterwards. Our thoughts to connections.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- sp)

Yesterday:

King Penda, PU/7, 5/1 --- 11/2

Go Silver Bullet, 5th/8, 15/2 --- 11/2

Today:

Charming Lad, 4th/12, 5/1 --- 3/1

Playing With Fire, 3rd/6, 6/1 --- 7/2

The Gripper, PU/14, 7/1 --- 8/1

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Step backwards

Three points lent back to the bookies today with three unplaced efforts.

We had Samizdat (1pt) in the 2.00 at Sedgefield, at 5/1, who went off at 4/1 but could only manage 5th despite trading at shorter than 6/4 in running.

Ten minutes later at Leicester, in the 2.10, we had Jacardo (1pt) at 13/2. Got the price here as well, with the selection starting at 11/2 but despite rallying late on could also only manage fifth.

And then in the 3.40 at Leicester it was disappointing to see Simply Strong (1pt) drift to an SP of 11/1 after we advised at 7/1, and then he weakened out of things in the closing stages to be a well beaten sixth.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP).

Samizdat, 5th/10, 5/1 --- 4/1
Jacardo, 5th/10, 13/2 --- 11/2
Simply Strong, 6th/10, 7/1 ---- 11/1

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Good day

A good day today with ten points of profit from three points staked. It could have been ever better had one of the punts of the years so far been landed, but it wasn't quite to be for Some Catch.

The winner came from the first bet of the day, Borero (1pt) at 12/1, in the 2.00 at Wetherby. Mick Easterby's 8yo had been underperforming recently but apparentlytreatment on a back injury had given him an extra spring in his step, and he stayed on really gamely to win at 17/2, after being matched in-running at the (it seems now) huge price of 320. In recent weeks, we've had one winner at 1000 in running, another 1000 get within a whisker of winning with a late run, and then today. It's probably no coincidence that some of these punted-on types will continue to be urged forward despite seemingly out of contention (with the right jockey on board of course), if they've been told the money's down and that a big run's expected. Perhaps something to keep in mind in the year ahead.

Next up we had Blazing Diva (1pt) who put in an altogether less eventul effort in the 3.40 at Wetherby. Advised at 10/1, we got the edge again with Sandy Thomson's mare starting at 7/1, but she ended pulled up.

Finally we had the very well supported Some Catch (1pt) in the, advised at 16/1, who would continue to be backed into 9/2 second favourite in the 4.15 at Wetherby. Clearly plenty was expected on his handicap debut and in fairness he ran pretty well, but a couple of key jumping errors made his job all the more difficult and he could only get fourth. Ironically given all the money about that Some Catch's stablemate, King Benny won the race at odds of 13/2.

A cracking start to the week all told, and like we always say if we can continue to beat SP with the majority of picks then the winners will find themselves.

Confirmation of results with prices:

Borero, 1st/9, 12/1 --- 17/2
Blazing Diva, PU/6, 10/1 --- 7/1
Some Catch, 4th/11, 16/1 --- 9/2

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Weekend catch up

We had five selections this weekend, three of them placed, and a couple could be considered a shade unlucky. Still for win only backers it means five points lost, so no consolation there!

It all started in the 12.40 at Ascot yesterday, where we put up Lordsbridge (1pt), at 5/1. After starting at 9/2 he was given a very difficult job when the eventual winner, Rougham, was allowed to steal about 20 lengths at the start. He could never get close, and finished well behind.

Then in the 2.10 at Wincanton, we had Theatre Dance (1pt) at 8/1. Nicely backed into 5/1 favourite at the off, Timmy Murphy put in one of usual "confident rides" as he just coaxed him into contention, but sadly it didn't work and he could only stay on into third, never getting near the front two, with a mistake two out not helping.

We had Le Burf (1pt) in the 3.25 at Wincanton next, at 11/2. Another well supported, he started 7/2 to repeat his success in the same race a couple of years ago. He was a little behind when he fell three out.

Finally for Saturday we put up Carrickboy in the 4.00 at Wincanton, at 5/1. After starting at 100/30, he was travelling nicely, when he was virtually brought down at the 8th fence. Aidan Coleman did really well to stay on board, losing his irons in the process. It was always going to be difficult after that and the fact he ran on into third, makes us wonder what would have happened with a clear round.

Today, just the one pick, What A Steel, at 7/1. Again we locked in the value with the horse going off at 9/2, and he ran well, travelling nicely and trading at just above evens before getting caught in a bit of interference before two out, which put him off his stride for a vital moment and he could only finish third, going down by just over three lengths.

So it was a pleasing weekend in terms of getting the value, and a few decent performances, but ultimately frustrating to not get a winner or two. Hopefully a good burst is just around the corner.

Confirmation of results with prices (Advised --- SP)

Saturday 23rd January

Lordsbridge, 4th/6, 5/1 --- 9/2

Theatre Dance, 3rd/12, 8/1 --- 5/1

Le Burf, 7th/9, 11/2 --- 7/2

Carrickboy, 3rd/9, 5/1 ---- 100/30

Sunday 24th January

What A Steel, 3rd/16, 7/1 ---- 9/2

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Turn of fortune

It's nice to be reporting a good turn of fortune for a change, with our only selection today doing the business at Taunton.

It was in the 3m3furlong contest, the 2.00, and we had Rudinero (1pt) at 7/1. He was running a fine race, after going off at 6s, and was up with the pace throughout. However, it just looked like Glebehall Bay was going to stretch clear to leave us lamenting yet another second, before the Venetia Williams' trained 8yo fell three out while trading at 1.10.

That left the way clear for Rudinero, who just had to pop over the last three to win comfortably, which he did.

It's not a nice way to win, and hopefully Glebehall Bay's none the worse for his fall, but we've had quite a few hard luck stories of our own in recent weeks so perhaps it was just our turn for fate to look our way this time.

Kelso's off tomorrow already, and there are inspections due at Chepstow and Catterick, so hopefully there'll be some action for us to look forward to.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised and SP).

Rudinero, 1st/10, 7/1 --- 6/1

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Waiting game

A fairly quiet day with just a couple of selections, with neither placed. However at least both gave runs for our money which is a lot more than can be said for most of yesterdays!

Both were at Newcastle, the first at 12.40 where we had Also Jo (1pt) at 12/1. James Reveley's 8yo ran well enough for a long time, up with the leaders and looking to hold every chance, but about four out he just dropped through the field and ended up well back, after starting at 10/1.

The other was in the 2.15, Daldini (1pt), at 6/1 which was further supported into 9/2 at the off. This one battled for the lead throughout in the really testing conditions which in the end can't have helped. Despite trading at around evens near the finish, he just couldn't quicken and in the end was unlucky to be touched off for a place.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Also Jo, 10th/13, 12/1 --- 10/1

Daldini, 4th/10, 6/1 --- 9/2

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Tough Tuesday

The worst day for a while in terms of performances, with five selections all well beaten.

January's been a strange, and frustrating month. Plenty of horses have run with credit, we've beaten the SP on many occasions, but we're staring at a 14pt loss so far. Still plenty of time to turn things around for the month however, all it takes is one decent day.

Not much to say about today's picks, really poor displays.

First up we had Alaskan Prince (2pts), in the 1.30 at Southwell, at 11/1. After opening on course at 8s he drifted to 10/1 before never getting into it to finish 9th.

Then we put up Bearneen Boy (1pt) in the 1.40 at Folkestone, at 7/1. After shortening to 5/1 at the off, he was sent out to make all but that it didn't happen for him in the mud and he finished 5th. Credit to jockey Trevor Whelan for giving it his all though.

In the 2.00 at Southwell we had Overyou (1pt), at 6/1. Again we had the consolation of the value with the pick starting at 9/2 but after racing prominently for a while she couldn't keep pace with the leaders and got heavily eased towards the end.

In the 3.10 at Folkestone, Katalak (1pt) was our selection at 10/1. This was arguably the worst performance of the day with Jonathan De Giles' 8yo going off at 11s and eventually getting pulled up.

Whatever Next (1pt) was the aptly named next choice, in the 3.40 at Folkestone, at 6/1. Opening on course at 5/1, and supported into 9/2 for a time, he drifted to 7s before the off. He shared the lead for most of the contest but dropped tamely away when they got to the business end of the race. A poor showing, to cap a poor day.

Through the course of 2011 there'll be similar days to this, but there'll also be days where everything goes right. When everything is so about the big picture, and the long term, it's quite important to treat days like this with as much cold indifference as when a 25pt profit day rolls in although that of course is easier said than done!

We'll certainly hope for better tomorrow!

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Alaskan Prince, 9th/12, 11/1 --- 10/1

Bearneen Boy, 5th/14, 7/1 --- 5/1

Overyou, 5th/7, 6/1 --- 9/2

Katalak, PU/6, 10/1 ---- 11/1

Whatever Next, 5th/6, 6/1 --- 7/1

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Results catch up

A few days to catch up on, from Friday to today, and a mixture of results.

On Friday, we had four running for us.

In the 12.40 at Huntingdon we had Giollacca (1pt), advised at 17/2, with an SP of 11/2. This was a dramatic race with a load of runners disqualified for taking the wrong course. Fortunately our jockey did go the right way, what was slightly less fortunate was that he could only finish second.

Next up in the 1.50 at Musselbrough was Nelliedonethat (1pt), which we advised at 11/2 (6/1 with Stan James). After going off at 4/1, the 11yo absolutely cruised home to win in a canter, very nice.

In the 2.40 at Huntingdon we had Aboukar Boy (1pt), at 16/1. We got the value on SP, just about, with the John Cornwall's 7yo starting at 14/1 but he didn't do anything, getting pulled up.

Then in the 3.20 back at Musslebrough, we had Ballabrook (1pt) at 5/1, which started the same price and was well beaten.

On to Saturday and a couple of runners for us, away from the drama of Kempton.

First of all, our umpteenth second place of recent weeks in the shape of Mayolynn (1pt), in the 12.40 at Warwick. Advised at 9/1 she went off at 15/2, and ran well for a long time. She couldn't live with the front two though, and was seemingly set for third when one of the leaders fell at the last. She was miles clear of the eventual third but a fair way behind the winner.

Deuteronomy (1pt) was next, in the 2.35 at Wetherby, advised at 5/1. Nicely backed into 7/2 he ran a bit of a stinker but was staying on again when he was quite badly hampered four out which finished him off. Got the value again which is the idea, but not the result.

On to Sunday and just the one selection at Ffos Las, Winterwood(1pt) , put up at 15/2. Not good here, with the horse drifting to 10/1 and ending well beaten.

Then today, we had yet another second place finish at big odds, and a 2pt pick as well. Cloudy Wager (2pts) was the one, put up at 12/1 in the 2.40 at Plumpton. Pleased to see Ladbrokes pricing up this race relatively early for them this morning. In recent weeks they've been really avoiding pricing up most of days racing until the market well and truly settles down, poor show IMO. Anyway Lads was one of the 12/1 bookies we suggested, and Anna Newton-Smith's 6yo started at 9/1 so we locked in the value pre-off, and ran well, but sadly she ran into one too good, finishing behind the comfortable winner Rith Bob. Would have been a cracking return but not to be.

An hour later, in the 3.40 at Plumpton we had Commanche Dawn (1pt), at 13/2. She continued to be backed and was 5/1 at the off, but jumped really poorly and eventually unseated.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- sp)

Friday January 14th

Giollacca, 2nd/11, 17/2 --- 11/2

Nelliedonethat, 1st/9, 11/2 --- 4/1

Aboukar Boy, PU/5, 16/1 --- 14/1

Ballabrook, 7th/9, 5/1, 5/1 --- 5/1

Saturday January 15th

Mayolynn, 2nd/9, 9/1 --- 15/2

Deuteronomy, 5th/7, 5/1 --- 7/1

Sunday January 16th

Winterwood, 5th/7, 15/2 --- 10/1

Monday January 17th

Cloudy Wager, 2nd/9 14/1 --- 9/1

Commanche Dawn, UR/9, 13/2 --- 5/1

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Seconduary

A couple more seconds for the month today, it's certainly a frustrating spell we're going through, knocking at the door but never really hammering through it and charging onwards. It'll come though.

We had four selections in all, the first in the 12.50 at Catterick. Kingdom Of Munster (1pt) was put up at 7/1, in the juvenile maiden hurdle, and went off at the same price. He ran reasonably without ever really getting close to the eventual winner, coming third.

Then we had Shadows Lengthen (1pt) in the 1.50 at Catterick, at 8/1, in the novices' hurdle. Going off at 8s, he traded at big prices in running but came storming home and only just failed, he would have won if the post was five yards further down the track. Hitting the last hurdle didn't help too.

Next up we had Simply Wings (1pt) at 9/2, in the 2.40 at Hereford. Travelling well after starting at 11/4 and seemingly about to pick off the long time leader he traded at 3s on in running, but his top weight just counted against him in the end and he couldn't quicken, finishing second.

Finally we had Grand Award (2pt) in the 3.20 at Catterick. Advised at 7/1, he continued to be well backed into 4/1, but made too many jumping mistakes to give himself a decent chance, including at the final fence which has been a feature of his in recent races. A winner in waiting surely if he can improve his jumping.

Confirmation of results with sps:


Kingdom Of Munster, 3rd/10, 7/1 ---- 7/1
Shadows Lengthen, 2nd/15, 8/1 ---- 8/1
Simply Wings, 2nd/10, 9/2 ---- 11/4
Grand Award, 4th/11, 7/1 ---- 4/1



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Leicester catch up

We had no runners today, with only the meeting at Doncaster being the jumps action. It was a decent little card, but despite a fairly lively morning market nothing which ticked the boxes as far as we were concerned.

Yesterday, at Leicester, we had a collection of good performances but sadly none ending up in the winners' enclosure.

First up in the 1.00 we put up Ezdiyaad (2pt), at 7/1. Going off at 15/2 he was most disappointing and finished well beaten in a first time tongue-tie.

A big priced selection next, Red Law (1pt) in the 1.30. Advised at 20/1 with b.o.g bookies he actually went off at 33/1 and put up a decent performance under top weight. Given the odd reminder, and coming off and on the bridle, he approached three out still bang in contention but a couple of poor jumps just at the wrong moment really didn't help. He still stayed on nicely though to finish a clear third and nicely reward those who prefer to play each way. On another day he really may have won, but there we are.

Another placed effort next, in the shape of Pocket Too (1pt) in the 2.00. Advised at 7/1, he started a well backed 9/2, but couldn't get close to the clear winner, finishing just touched off for second in third place.

Sandynow (2pt) was our selection in the 3.30, put up at 9/1 Really nicely backed into 11/2 in the intriguing novices chase, he was right there half a mile from home, but faded disappointingly to finish fourth of four.

And then came the most frustrating race of the day, the finale, the 4.00. We advised Rushwee (1pt) at 11/2, who drifted to 15/2 before the off and then put in a cracking performance, still full of running, leading, and trading at shorter than 1/3 in running when the horse met the second last all wrong, over reached, and threw Matt Crawley off. A reminder of how tough this game can be!

Two interesting looking jumps meetings tomorrow, at Catterick and Hereford both with seven race cards, so hopefully a few more opportunities to push on. There's an inspection at Hereford because so fingers crossed the action gets the go ahead.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- sp)

Ezdiyaad, 8th/11, 7/1 --- 15/2

Red Law, 3rd/10, 20/1 --- 33/1

Pocket Too, 3rd/11, 7/1 --- 9/2

Sandynow, 4th/4, 9/1 --- 11/2

Rushwee, UR/9, 11/2 --- 15/2

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Another profitable day

Things beginning to click now, with another profitable day.

We had five selections in all, four of them at what turned into a very wet Taunton, and most of them ran well.

First up was our only selection of the day at Towcester. We put up King's Realm (1pt) at 8/1 in the opening event, the 12.55.

Going off at 9/1, he ran with a fair bit of credit on his second start over hurdles. Being hampered by a faller four out really didn't help and he stayed on well into a place, finishing third in the end, just missing out on second, although well behind the winner.

Then came Chrysander (1pt) for Evan Williams in the 1.15 at Taunton, at 15/2. A power cut at the track meant the viewing public missed watching this one storm home live, but the replay showed he absolutely hacked up, after going off at 13/2.

Up next was Cullahill (1pt) in the 2.15 at Taunton, at 14/1, who after starting at 12s ran reasonably for a while but was well beaten in the end.

Lorum Leader (1pt) was next in the 3.45 at 7/1. After drifting to 9/1 at SP he ran well for a good part of the race but eventually tired and did well to come third in ground that was turning things into a real slog.

Finally we had Mtpockets (1pt) in the 4.15. After being put up at 9/1, he started at 8/1 and ran well. Always up there, he just looked a tad tapped for toe as the pace quickened, but he was really hitting top gear when he clattered the hurdle two out which put pay to his chances. He stayed on again but couldn't get close to the principles.

So all told 3.5 pts of profit for the day, and we look forward to hopefully keeping things going tomorrow!

Confirmation of results with prices (advised and SP)

King's Realm, 3rd/8, 8/1 --- 9/1

Chrysander, 1st/13, 15/2 --- 13/2

Cullahill, 5th/7, 14/1 --- 12/1

Lorum Leader, 3rd/9, 7/1 --- 9/1

Mtpockets, 4th/14, 9/1 --- 8/1

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Much more like it

January bounced into profit today thanks to a couple of cracking winners, and inflated prices too because of best odds guaranteed. 2011 has seen quite a few decent performances, and a collection of "odds on in-running" seconds, so we were always confident things would eventually click, and today it did. We're not getting carried away though, there's plenty more work to do to make up for November and December, and we need to keep it going.

Let's start with a look back at yesterday, where we had our fifth second of the year, from 16 selections. In fairness the latest was very well beaten, but still finished a country mile clear of the the third. We had Autumn Spirit (1pt) , in the 2.00 at Fontwell, at 10/1. She gave the odds on favourite the only challenge in the race, but finished very tired after going off at the same price.

Our other runner, Rigadin de Beauchene (1pt) was a non runner.

And then on to today, where we put up three after a very lively morning of market activity.

First up, was General Kutuzov, at 11/1, in the opener at Chepstow, the 12.35. After opening on course at 8/1, he started at 10s and then proceeded to run pretty well until unseating Liam Treadwell in infuriating fashion, as he was still going quite nicely at that point, despite race a bit keenly early on.

It was to Sandown next, where we had Music Of The Moor (1pt) at 6/1, Tom Tate sending the 4yo old down for his first ever start over hurdles in what looked a pretty competitive contest. Subject of some decent support this morning, he actually drifted to 8/1 at the off, before running really well - and possibly winning in a style which heralds a change of fortune for our selections.

He was absolutely cantering while all the others were flat to the boards, and was just about to pick off the leader before crashing through the final fence, stopping him in his tracks. Not again, we thought to ourselves, but he picked up well to retake the lead. Suddenly a 66/1 shot came from nowhere, Lamps, to fly home at the death - but the post came in time and we were celebrating a nice win, inflated because of best odds guaranteed.

In the last couple of weeks, either the mistake, or the fast finisher, would have scuppered our chances, but not today, so maybe a corner has been turned.

Back at Chepstow, our second selection of the day having his first run over fences was David Pipe's Our Father (1pt) in the 2.50. Advised at 5/1, he was allowed to start at an extraordinary 9/1 before winning in really impressive style. After pulling hard early on, he started to find his feet and came into the home straight cruising while all the others were being scrubbed along. He quickened nicely to win cosily by four lengths. A really interesting prospect.

So because of the best odds guaranteed in place with the bookies we suggested, we had 16 points of profit today, so its a thank you to those layers deciding to get stuck into two hurdle debutantes with the belief the early support was unjustified.

A pity there's no jumps racing tomorrow, let's hope we can keep it going on Monday.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised and SP).

Friday 7th January

Autumn Spirit, 2nd/5, 10/1--- 10/1

Rigadin de Beauchene NR

Saturday 8th January

General Kutuzov, UR/7, 11/1--- 10/1

Music Of The Moor, 1st/12, 6/1--- 8/1

Our Father, 1st/15, 5/1---9/1

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Just around the corner

It was quite a lively morning of market activity today, but we had just one selection, a two point pick at Huntingdon, and certainly got the value.

We were on the nicely backed Cheney Manor (2pts), from Nicky Henderson's stable, in the 3.10, at 7/1.

He went off at 9/2 at SP and put up a good performance, trading odds on in running, before a mistake two out put pay to his chances. The winner had flown, but he was putting in some decent work to close the gap and the fact he clattered that hurdle really didn't help. In the end he could only finish third.

Backing win only can be a frustrating past-time, and we know plenty of our members like to follow each-way, but when the winners come it will all be worth it. Let's hope it's just around the corner.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised and SP).

Cheney Manor, 3rd/15, 7/1 -- 4/1

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Two the not so magic number

Further signs that things will click soon, with yet another second place today (that's six in the last 21 selections - nearly 30%). Just a couple of those getting in front would have put a completely different complexion on things just lately, but it's all about the long term, the big picture and it'll come in its own time.

Today's second was Monty's Moon (1pt) at 7/1, in the 1.50 at Leicester, which traded 1.23 in running as he hit the front going over the last. Denis O'Regan worked wonders on the winner though, to get up by a neck - he really is a cracking jockey, one of those who never gives up. We got good value, with the selection going off at 4/1 and these things will work in our favour over time.

A couple of hours later we had Earl Of Thormond (1pt) at 11/2. Another to shorten nicely, he went off at 4/1 in the 3.50 at Leicester. Nowhere near with this one though, with Caroline Bailey's 6yo fairly well beaten.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised / SP)

Monty's Moon, 2nd/11, 7-1 / 4-1

Earl Of Thormond, 6th/8, 11-2/ 4-1

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Poor day

Much quieter today and a couple of pretty poor performances, with another "two pointer" not troubling the leaders, most disappointing.

Both selections ran at Hereford, which survived a morning inspection.

First up we had Gleannacreim (2pts), in the 2.25, advised at 4/1. Going off at almost double the odds really isn't the idea (7/1), and he ran accordingly, finishing 5th/7, not being able to continue a short lived move two out.

Then came, in the 3.00, our biggest priced selection for some time, Cypress Grove (1pt), at 25/1. At least we got some value with this one, as he continued to be supported into 16/1 at SP. For a few moments he looked to be picking up from the back, but it wasn't to be and he ended up well beaten.

Will certainly hope for better tomorrow.

Confirmation of results with sps:

Glannacreim, 7/1, 5th/7
Cyprus Grove, 16/1, 7th/13

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The calm after the storm

The busiest day for months today, with ten selections. Funny how that happens sometimes, you can go along with one or two selections most days and then suddenly a day like today comes along and it goes crazy.

While it can feel a bit daunting with a big outlay at the start of the day, these sort of days can really give the bank a big lift. In the end, we had one non runner, three seconds (including two which traded very short in running) and a 6/1 winner. It all left us three points down for the day in the end, but despite a disappointing finish it was a promising day in many ways. We got good value with virtually all our selections and there were some good performances. Perhaps the beginning of the shift back to profit, which will surely come sooner or later.

It all started in the 1.15 at Folkestone, with Here's The Key (1pt), advised at 6/1. Going off at 5s this one ran an extraordinary race. Outpaced out the back, she hit 1000/1 in running on two or three occassions, and looked completely out of it. But my word did she finish well, absolutely flying over the last she was eating up the ground and looked for all the world like she would storm home, trading at 1.03 in running without actually getting her head in front. As soon as she was upsides, the very game winner battled back to win by a neck. A most frustrating start, but hats off to Denis O'Regan who never gave up on her, just the sort of ride punters' like to see, and one plenty of other jocks could learn from.

Then we had Steady Tiger (2pts) in the 1.20 at Ayr, put up at 6/1. This one was withdrawn before the off as a NR.

Then came our next, in the 1.55 at Ayr, Premier Sagas (1pt), put up at 8/1. After starting at 5/1, Nicky Richards' 7y.o ran a terrific race. Always prominent, he looked to be ready to put the race to bed going over the last, travelling strongly. But despite trading as low as 1.15 he couldn't finish the job, going down by 3/4 length to the fast finishing winner.

The effort by Noble Billy (1pt), in the 2.10 at Plumpton, the Sussex National, wasn't anything like the first two runners. After being advised at 13/2, he went off at 5/1 before jump poorly, and being pulled up.

Then came the days' winner, Dicklers Oscar (1pt), in the 2.25 at Ayr. After being put up at 6/1, she continued to be really nicely backed into 5/2 at the off. Given a very patient ride by James Reveley, she jumped herself into contention and forged clear to win by nearly three lengths.

The races continued to come thick and fast, with Beside The Fire (1pt) up next, advised at 7/1 in the 2.45 at Plumpton. This was our third second placed finish of the day, and ran into Manshoor, ridden by Tony McCoy, who was a late change because the 7lb conditional jockey, Matt Crawley who was down to ride was apparently unwell. Unsurprisingly there was plenty of support around for McCoy's new mount, and he gave him a cracking ride to push him clear in an enterprising effort. Beside The Fire was a bit outpaced early but finished really strongly to only go down by two lengths in the end. Hope you're feeling better soon Matt.

The final three selections ran poorly, and it's particularly frustrating that two of them were two point selections.

The best performance came from Nodform William (1pt) in the 3.00 at Ayr, at 11/2. After going off a well backed 100/30, he was there or thereabouts for much of the contest but couldn't quicken when required.

In the 3.30 at Ayr we had Bardolet (2pts), at 9/2. After starting at 4/1 he was out the back to begin with, made decent progress for a time, before falling away tamely.

And then came our last selection, Carmond (2pts), in the 3.55 at Folkestone. Put up at 6/1, he drifted to 15/2 on his first start for Oliver Sherwood, but couldn't really get into it despite showing up for a while, and finished 6th/6 in the end.

Confirmation of results with sps:

Here's The Key, 2nd/8, 5/1
Premier Sagas, 2nd/10, 5/1
Steady Tiger NR
Noble Billy, PU/14, 5/1
Dickler's Oscar, 1st/13, 5/2
Beside The Fire, 2nd/12, 5/1
Nodform William, 6th/12, 100/30
Bardolet, 11th/15, 4/1
Carmond, 6th/6, 15/2


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Slow start to 2011

So we're underway for 2011, but not a good start by any means, with a couple of unplaced efforts from our first two bets of the year.

First up we had Super Directa (1pt) in the 2.10 at Fakenham, at 7/1. This was an interesting performance, with him seemingly travelling well before hitting a hurdle about 3/4 mile from home or so. At that point he was briefly ridden by Leighton Aspell, who then chose to sit quietly and coast him home the rest of the race, to finish 5th in the end. Now it would be hard to argue that the horse would have been able to challenge the front pair, but he didn't actually finish that far behind given his extremely tender handling, so maybe one to look for in the future.

Our other selection was also at Fakenham, Ouest Eclair (1pt) in the 3.20, at 5/1. Ferdy Murphy's 6yo pulled a bit too hard early on and jumped poorly, and was soundly beaten.

Confirmation of results with sps:

Super Directa, 5th/12, 7/1
Ouest Eclair, PU/8, 11/2

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