Tuesday, 28 June 2011

Low key spell

In the course of every few hundred bets we place we'll have spells where
  1. everything seems to go right (for example a rival getting blocked / a rival unseating at the last fence / winning photos)
  2. most things go right (horses running to form, no hard luck stories)
  3. everything seems to go wrong (would-be winners getting blocked in running/ falling at the final fence when clear / losing photos)
  4. nothing much happens at all (just below par performances, all a bit mundane)
Obviously spell number 1 is fantastic, and tends to come along every now and then. Number 2 is also very pleasant of course, steady reliable profits and a smooth upward spell and is more common. Number 3 I think we've had for the first part of this month, where we had numerous horses run well but just not getting their heads in front for whatever reason, and that is extremely frustrating, but there is the consolation of good performances. And then we have Number 4, which thankfully tends to be relatively rare, but is probably the most annoying of the lot. It feels a bit like we're in one of those spells now. It's been fairly quiet in terms of selections and the horses are just not really performing. All a bit flat.

So to say we've had spells of 3 and 4 in June, and for us to just be a few points down for the month is actually a rather good sign going forward. It might all feel a bit frustrating that we're not bounding ahead with profits, as we have in some other months of this year, but the fact we're holding our own pretty well despite the tricky spells we've been going through augers very well for the future.

We'll have a "number 1 spell" again sooner or later, it'll happen, it's a mathematical certainty. When, we obviously can't tell for certain - but we'll just carry on doing what we do, sifting through dozens of potential candidates each and every morning trying to pinpoint the best selections. In the meantime with any luck we'll have a "number 2 spell" and keep things ticking over nicely.

Anyway enough waffle about spells and whatnot on with a quick look back at the last couple of days. And as is befitting "number 4 spells" there isn't a lot to write home about.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
7.25 Musselburgh Blown It 1pt 11/2 general BOG 6/1 Betfred/Skbet/Bluesq
8.40 Windsor Broughtons Paradis 1pt 9/2 Hills/PP/Sky/Tote 5/1 Lads

Blown It was very well backed at Musselburgh, having his first run for Keith Dalgleish, supported on course right into 7/2 at SP. But he was never in it and was very beaten.

Broughtons Paradis at least ran a lot better, staying on quite well at Windsor, and just missing out on third, after going off at 6/1.

Then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
4.15 Hamilton Miss Villefranche 1pt 8/1 Lads/Hills/Coral and others
5.30 Brighton Billy Red 1pt 5/1 Lads/Bet365/Hills/Coral/Bluesq
7.40 Stratford Gaelic Flight 1pt 11/1 Lads/Hills/Stan James 10/1 general bog

Miss Villefranche was unbelievably weak on course, drifting right out to 14/1. The writing appeared on the wall, but we have had course drifters win recently of course. Not this time though, with her leading, and running a bit too keenly and fading a couple of furlongs from home.

At least with the next two we got the prices in good fashion.

Billy Red started at 3/1 but was well beaten after losing the lead just over a furlong from home.

Gaelic Flight was supported into an SP of 7/1 but the old boy never really looked like he was enjoying it much and finished tailed off.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday 27th June 2011

Blown It, 7th/10, 11/2 --- 3/1
Broughtons Paradis, 4th/12, 5/1 --- 6/1

Tuesday 28th June 2011

Miss Villefranche, 8th/11, 8/1 --- 14/1
Billy Red, 4th/6, 5/1 --- 3/1
Gaelic Flight, 6th/7, 11/1 --- 7/1

So yes, all a bit flat. Let's see if things spice up tomorrow and we can get a nice winner or two.

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