Wednesday, 4 April 2012

March Analysis

A good winner today in the shape of Earcomesthedream, in the 4.10 at Hereford. Unfortunately we couldn't see it as there were no pictures coming from course, but according to the RP website he ran out a pretty ready winner with the from two well clear of third. What was annoying is the hefty R4 that we had to put up with because of the withdrawal of a couple of runners prominent in the betting. Who's to say Peter Pritchard's 9yo wouldn't have won anyway, but still, never mind, 9/1, became 5.85/1 because of an average 35p R4 and we're pleased to get back to winning ways again and ensure April gets into profit early. 

Anyway, it's time now to look at March, which ended poorly with a frustrating losing run, to push the month into negative territory of -10.25pts, damn annoying, particularly as the stretch began just as things were looking looking like really getting going for us, with a 25/1 Cheltenham success, and a couple of other nice winners too. Then started a run where 11/24 made the frame (at an average price of 7.29/1) but not a single one got their head in front. This would have been a profitable month, as has been the case for 2012 as a whole, had we been advising each-way, and it's something of a stern test of our win-only resolve. We know that many of our subscribers do prefer to back each-way, and we can't really blame them, but we've just too much evidence to suggest win-only provides better long-term returns to make us waiver on this - although it does play havoc with variance in results. How ironic that our biggest winner since proofing results began, Son Of Flika, was the only selection we've ever advised each-way.. Some things are sent to test us!

These are the stats:

Bets: 57
Wins: 5 (8.77%)

2nds: 6 (10.53%)
3rds: 9 (15.8%)
Placed total: 20 (35.1%)
Average odds taken: 8.36/1
Average SP: 7.51/1
Average win odds: 8.38/1
Profit/Loss: -10.25pts
Return On Investment: -21.67%

Interestingly, March 2011 saw a losing run of 27 - but that month ended with 59pts of profit with an ROI of +79.73%. That shows that losing runs can be shrugged off if results elsewhere more than make up for them, and it was tough for ours to come at a time without a large cushion already built up. Looking at the positives, and we again strongly beat SP against average odds taken ten minutes after selections were issued, by nearly 1pt per pick which is hugely important and shows we're still very much on the right track despite the results that came. Our placed total again was solid, although not as high as through January and February. Also, to have a win strike rate of just 8.77% for the month, but to actually only be down by just over 10pts is, actually quite pleasing. This is our third lowest win strike-rate since January 1st 2010, and the other two that were lower we took very severe damage, so this has to be something of a positive (although not much of one we admit!!!).Let's see what April brings, we are certainly long overdue a huge upswing in results, and let's hope it's just around the corner. From that point of view, it may well be a good time to join us! Maybe today's heralded the start of that push upwards, let's hope so.

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