Monday, 2 July 2012

June Review

Another good month, with more than 17pts of profit secured and a very healthy +35.61% ROI. We're particularly pleased about this as June seems to have been a bit of a nightmare month for many tipsters, partly due perhaps to the incredibly changeable ground we've been seeing with all the rain about.

Let's look at the stats:

Bets: 49
Wins: 9 (18.37%)
2nds: 8 (16.33%)
3rds: 2 (7.14%)
Placed total: 19 (38.78%)
Average odds taken: 6.44/1
Average SP: 6.06/1
Average win odds: 6.38/1
Profit/Loss: +17.45pts
Return On Investment: +35.61%

At 6.44/1 for our average priced selection (as normal, price taken from decent bookie, ten minutes after selection issued), we had our lowest average price since January 2010. No real reason for this, and with relatively few number of bets (49), it's of course a bit more likely to have slightly more skewed averages (either high or low). For the 25th month out of 26 we beat SP, albeit not quite by the manner we have done in the last three months, but still a very pleasing result nonetheless.

Continuing the theme for 2012 generally, we can point to a number of second placed finishes which if they had managed to get their heads in front would have given the month a cracking boost, but, still , at 18.37% win strike rate for the month, we can't complain really at our winning percentage. Certainly, if we can keep that sort of level up things will look very rosy going forward, even more so if our average odds taken re-adjusts upwards a little, which it's bound to.

At 38.78% placed strike rate, that is just 0.6% above what we have historically seen place (since Jan 1 2010), so that's fine, and it's interesting to see that we had more winners than finish second for the second month running (albeit by just one). There's little doubt that this last stat helps give us a much better chance of a good month. I know this sounds obvious, and we certainly have had a few profitable months when the seconds outweigh first place finishes, but when our placed strike rate will rarely climb above 45% (happened in four months out of the 26), it's important that a decent number of those horses which run well for us actually do get their heads in front. 

That is why the early part of this year was pretty frustrating, from January to March we had 54.8%, 44.74% and 35.1% place, but we had 31 seconds to our 20 winners. Be it jockeys concerned about the new (now amended) whip rules, or just one of those things, there's no question we were a little unlucky not to have substantial profits in the first part of this year. Anyway, it's a long-term game this and things seem to be righting themselves now.

In summary, June a strong month and let's hope for more of the same through July!

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