Forward a bit, back a bit

We've dropped back a few points this weekend, but we were quite close to a cracking return when our 2pt 14/1 shot on Saturday came second. Once one or two of those go in we'll be flying again.

Let's start with yesterday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Ascot Annimation 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Bet365/Hills/SkyBet 14/1Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet
3.20 Ascot Dan Breen 1pt 9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Bet365

Totesport held Annimation at 14/1 for a good while but the support really came later, with Seamus Mullins' 7yo going off at 6/1. She ran a good race, travelling nicely, but the winner just took the race by the scruff of the neck by going for home about three out and ours was a little too far off the pace to pick up the move. She stayed on strongly into second, but well beaten by the winner. Would have been a lovely pick-up, but not quite to be this time.

Dan Breen was well supported as David Pipe looked to continue his good form, going off at 7/2. While he was up there for a good while he suddenly dropped away in most disappointing fashion. Ironically his stable mate won the race.

And then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Exeter Baseball Ted 1pt 5/1 generally inc Lads/Hills/Bet365

2.45 Towcester Beat All Out 1pt 9/1 + generally, inc 10/1 Bet365, 11/1 Boyles 12/1 Lads

And neither of these did a whole lot for us to say the least.

Baseball Ted was looking to win the race for the second year running and helped set the pace, but faded out of things, after going off 5/1

We didn't see much of Beat All Out's performance with the fog descending at Towcester, but it was clear it wasn't up to much, although he did seem to pick up in the middle of the race before dropping away, after going off at 10/1

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 19th November 2011

Annimation, 2nd/11, 14/1 --- 6/1

Dan Breen, 8th/11, 9/2 --- 7/2

Sunday 20th November 2011

Baseball Ted, 7th/7, 5/1 --- 5/1

Beat All Out, 12th/12, 10/1 --- 10/1

Back to the winners enclosure

A good winner from our one selection today.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.55 Ascot Featherbed Lane 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads

Featherbed Lane was nicely supported on his first start for Philip Hobbs, going off a 4/1 shot, and was shaken up a fair way from home to make sure he was competitive. The tactics work as he stayed on really stoutly to win by more than two lengths from the well backed favourite, and could be one to stay on the right side of.

Confirmation of results with price (advised --- SP):

Featherbed Lane, 1st/9, 5/1 --- 4/1

2pter missing the target

We've not had a 2pt selection win for quite a while, although overall we're well up in terms of our staking for the year. It'll come along sooner or later.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.55 Hereford Acapulco Bay 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Coral/Totesport/Betfred/Paddy Power 14/1 Lads/SportingBet maybe some 16/1 Stan James

2.20 Market Rasen Le Burf 1pt 4/1+ generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Coral/Totesport/Betfred/Stan James

Acapulco Bay, running from a lower handicap mark than when he won nicely at Warwick a couple of years ago, was nicely backed this morning, but weak on course. He ran well enough for a while, but faded towards the end to finish well beaten. He went off at 12/1.

Le Burf ran with some credit, staying on purposefully at the end to be placed, after going off at 5/1. Things just happened a bit quickly for him in the middle section of the race, but he's probably on a mark he can win off.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Acapulco Bay, 10th/15, 12/1 --- 12/1

Le Burf, 3rd/10, 5/1 --- 5/1

Nought for one

Just the one selection today, in the marathon chase at Hexham.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.40 Hexham Matmata de Tendron 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 PP/Skybet/SportingBet/Boylesports

Matmata De Tendron tried his best for Tony Kelly, up there for a lot of the four mile contest and at spells looking like he was travelling well enough, but he began to tire a fair way from home and finished in the end beaten by around 20 lengths back in 6th, after starting at 7/1.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Matmata De Tendron, 6th/10, 9/2 --- 7/1

Limited space available

For the first time in more than four months, we have limited space available to join our service.

Our prices are as follows:

One month: £22.50

Three months: £65 (£21.66 per month)

Six months: £115 (£19.17 per month)

Twelve months: £205 (£17.08 per month)

If you would like to receive text alerts in addition to email, that will cost an extra £2 per month, just to cover our costs.

We don't expect to have our doors open for long, and as soon as we reach our limit we will once again close up shop, to protect prices for existing members.

This year not only do we have an ROI of more than 25%, with profits to date of nearly 160pts, we have also been given an excellent review by the highly respected Secret Betting Club and were also awarded their "Best Newcomer" award.

We fully expect to have another very strong NH season in the coming months so there may be no better time that to join us.

If you have any questions, do please contact us.

All the best,

Sam

PS - if you're wondering how Tuesday went for us - we had no selections today.

Results catch up

First of all, many apologies for the lack of regular updates over the last few days. Normal service will now be resumed from now on.

It's been a fairly quiet, yet profitable, last few days.

Let's start last Wednesday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Bangor Incentivise 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Coral

Richard Lee's 8yo went off a 13/2 shot and things happened a bit too quickly for him, and while he stayed on nicely towards the end he was never really going to get close to the front couple, finishing fourth in the end.

We had no selections on Thursday, so onto Friday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Newc Raining Horse 1pt 7-1 general (15-2 SportingBet)

Raining Horse was well backed into 9/2 co-favourite and looked a big player for quite a while, going almost 6/4 in running. But the 9yo hit the wall suddenly and dropped away tamely, to finish well beaten.

On to Saturday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.30 Uttoxeter Mighty Monty 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Lads/Coral 7/1 Hills

2.55 Wetherby Douglas Julian 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/Betfred/Boyles

3.15 Uttoxeter Amazing Star 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Coral/Totesport+others

And this was the good day we were confident we had coming, with a couple of nice winners.

Mighty Monty opened on track at 6/1 but drifted to 8s at post time, and put in a really gutsy performance to win by half a length. He travelled well for much of the race, took it up three out, and saw it out gamely from two strong finishers, great stuff. While beating SP is the target, as we've said many times sometimes the early money is very telling even if there is a late drift, and it can give us an extra bit of profit too thanks to best odds guaranteed.

Next up was Douglas Julian, another drifter, this time to 11/1. Not a similar result though, after pressing the front two for plenty of the race he dropped tamely away. This one's possibly getting back close to a winning mark though.

And then we had Amazing Star, who put in a stellar performance for us at Uttoxeter. He was always travelling really nicely and it was one of those where we could be pretty confident about having the winner a fair way from home, although he did make a mistake at the third last. He won by just over three lengths barely extended, after starting a well supported 7/2.

Onto Sunday and we had a couple of big priced picks:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

12.25 Fontwell The Clyda Rover 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Bet365 12/1 Hills

12.55 Fontwell Silsula 2pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Lads/VC maybe some 18/1Totesport/Betfred

Both of these were very well backed and both ran respectably for a long time before just fading towards the end.

First up The Clyda Rover, who went off at 5/1, and although he was being cajoled along for a fair while, was up there battling until a couple of flights from home when he faded out of contention. He was certainly trying that's for sure.

Then Silsula, our first 2pt bet for a while and we were pleased to see her continue to be backed right into 7/1. She was trying a big step up in trip for the first time and ran well for a long time, up with the leaders going over the second last fence, trading at around 7/4 in running, but at that point she began to empty out and then she faded on the run in to finish unplaced. Would have been a very good return, but a game effort.

And then today, Monday, we had no selections.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday November 9th 2011:

Incentivise, 4th/11, 5/1 --- 13/2

Thursday November 10th 2011:

No selections

Friday November 11th 2011:

Raining Horse, 7th/9, 7/1 --- 9/2

Saturday November 12th 2011:

Mighty Monty, 1st/13, 13/2 --- 8/1

Douglas Julian, 7th/11, 8/1 --- 11/1

Amazing Star, 1st/11, 11/2 --- 7/2

Sunday November 13th 2011:

The Clyda Rover, 4th/10, 11/1 --- 5/1

Silsula, 5th/6, 14/1 --- 7/1

Monday November 14th 2011:

No selections

So all in all, a 7.5pt profit from our last update, leaving the month just a shade down at -1.5pts. We've picked up 13.5pts of profit in the last seven days, from just nine selections, which shows how quickly things can spin around once we get a result or two. Hopefully we can push on from here and have another profitable week.

Quiet few days

Not a lot to report from the last three days!

On Wednesday we had one runner, which came fourth, no selections yesterday, and then today we had another unplaced.

We'll bring a full update soon, most likely on Monday, where we'll look back at these two selections, and those from the weekend too.

Have a good weekend!

Altogether better

A much better day today, a gutsy 7/1 winner and our other finished second after halving in price from 8/1 to 4/1.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Sedgefield Gavroche Gaugain 1pt 7/1 generally

3.20 Huntingdon Break The Chain 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 15/2 Bet365 8/1 Lads/Boyle/Betfred &others

Gavroche Gaugain, who went off at 11/2, was prominent for much of the contest and took it up a couple of fences from home. He needed a good jump at the end, got it, and ran on really gamely to land the spoils by half a length. The second, Night In Milan looked a big threat and traded odds on, but couldn't get there.

Next up we had Break The Chain and with the 8/1 holding up for a good while it was pleasing to see the selection go off at 4s. He was up there for much of the race but wasn't able to live with the winner in the end, going down by six lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Gavroche Gaugain, 1st/8, 7/1 --- 11/2

Break The Chain, 2nd/8, 8/1 --- 4/1

So a shame we couldn't quite get the double up, but a decent day and we look forward to tomorrow.

More placed but..

We had a couple more placed today but that's no good for us win-only backers, so a poor day, with four points lost. Not a lot of consolation around price-wise either, which is particularly disappointing.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.20 Carlisle Inga Bird 1pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 Coral/Bet365/SportingBet

2.05 Hereford Changing Lanes 1pt 13/2+generally inc. 7/1 Coral/Totesport/Betfred

3.30 Carlisle Teenando 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads/Bet365/Stan James

4.15 Hereford Priest Field 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Bet365/Coral+others

Inga Bird stayed on well into second but was never going to catch the winner, after starting at 13/2.

Changing Lanes, who started at 13/2, ran really poorly, just never travelling and out of the race from quite some way out.

Teenando put in a game effort, up there throughout, he didn't have the toe to go with the winner but stayed on well for third, after going off at 9/1.

Priest Field led for a fair part of the contest, but was readily passed by the principles to cap a frustrating afternoon. He started at 7/1.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Inga Bird, 2nd/11, 9/2 --- 13/2

Changing Lanes, PU/11, 7/1 --- 13/2

Teenando, 3rd/8, 10/1 --- 9/1

Priest Field, 9th/10, 5/1 --- 7/1

8 of our 15 win selections have been placed this month, which is no consolation at all for those members who follow us in backing win-only (apart from perhaps a bit of a run for our money).

A tough start to the month but things can turn very quickly and we look forward for a nice return or two soon.

Results catch up

It's proving a frustrating November so far results-wise, but at least from a price point of view it's been a decent start to the month.

Let's look back at the last three days, starting on Friday:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.40 Hexham Mighty Magnus 1pt 6/1 generally plus 13/2 Hills/Coral/Boyle/ 7/1 Skybet/Totesport/Betfred

Mighty Magnus went off at 5/1 and was up there for a long time, before fading from around two out to finish well behind.

Then on Saturday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.10 Wincanton Point West 1pt 7/1 + generally inc. 15/2 SportingBet 8/1 Totesport/VC/Betfred

2.05 Kelso The Shy Man 1pt 6/1 + generally inc. 13/2 Bet365/Totesport/Bluesq 7/1 SportingBet

3.00 Sandown Paintball 1pt 6/1 + generally inc. 13/2 Totesport/Boyle/Betfred 7/1 Lads

Point West went off at 8/1 and was given plenty to do from the back, he was staying on towards the end but was never really going to get there when he fell at the last.

The Shy Man started at 11/2 but never showed up, beaten a long way from home.

Better from Paintball, who was backed into 4/1 and stayed on to be placed although was never going to get close to the easy winner.

So, on to Sunday and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Ffos Las No Principles 1pt 7/1 +generally inc. 15/2 Hills 8/1 Bet365/Skybet/Totesport/Betfred

3.25 Market Rasen Beamazed 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 15/2 Totesport/Betfred 8/1 Lads/Skybet/Boyle

4.00 Market Rasen North Stack 1pt 5/1 generally 11/2 Lads

No Principles was held up right at the back but looked to be going well enough and moved up through the field late on, but just didn't have the out and out pace to really challenge the front couple, finishing 6th but only beaten just over three lengths, after going off at 6/1.

Beamazed was right up there and looked to be going well (touching nearly 5/4 in running) until the winner came up behind and quickened past him a couple of fences from home, finishing second in the end, starting at 15/2 (after opening on course at 11/2)

Then came North Stack, who was another seemingly going along well enough, touching odds in running on his chasing and handicap debut, but was just a bit outpaced close to home, going down in third by five lengths.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday 4th November:

Mighty Magnus, 5th/7, 13/2 --- 5/1

Saturday 5th November:

Point West, F/13, 7/1 --- 8/1

The Shy Man, PU/11, 6/1 --- 11/2

Paintball, 3rd/12, 6/1 --- 4/1

Sunday 6th November:

No Principles, 6th/10, 8/1 --- 6/1

Beamazed, 2nd/7, 8/1 --- 15/2

North Stack, 3rd/10, 11/2 ---9/2

So all in all a frustrating collection of results but from a price stats point of view 6 out of 7 went off shorter than we had in the morning so we're happy with that.

In fact 10 out of 11 selections for us this month have started shorter than we had, so from that point of view a strong start to the month, the winners will come along in their own time.

Next Time Out Analysis

One of the questions we field on a more regular basis than most is “how do your selections do next time out?” Sure there are some which stand out, a big priced pick which doesn’t do the business for us and then a day or two later scoots home at even bigger odds. But we’ve never before monitored them closely enough to assess whether they’re genuinely worth following blindly.

So now we’ve looked at the next time out performances of each of our selections from this year, up until we went into our two month pause, on August 31^st. The results are quite interesting. There is a danger with this sort of approach that one may be inclined to back fit the results to find an angle which appears to be one which works, so before we approach a number of different angles, let’s look first of all at how each and every selection has done, assuming he or she has raced again, after the horse was a selection for us:

All prices are to BSP so it can probably be assumed that better returns could be had with prices taken earlier in the day.

First of all, of the 552 selections advised by us from January 1^st 2011 to August 31^st, 486 have run at least once since.

Here are the stats backing each and every selections next time out:

Bets: 486

Wins: 71

Strike Rate: 14.61%

Average Odds: 16.75

Average Win Odds: 7.35

Profit/Loss: +13.12pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +2.7%

So a profit, although not a great one! That’s a fantastic starting point though, and one to really work on. Let’s look at a great number of different variables now which may improve returns for us.

First of all, let’s strike out all horses which drifted from the price we advised in the morning.

Bets: 366

Wins: 51

Strike Rate: 15.03%

Average Odds: 16.17

Average Win Odds: 7.60

Profit/Loss: +33.85pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +9.25%

So a better result, that’s quite interesting, as one of the theories about why a horse may drift on track late on is that connections have seen the price gone and have waited for another day, but this shows that perhaps isn’t generally the case.

The following couple of tables will focus on these 366 horses which didn’t drift from the price advised by us in the morning.

First of all, backing all horses which start next time at BSP at 8.0 or bigger:

Bets: 218

Wins: 20

Strike Rate: 9.17%

Average Odds: 23.75

Average Win Odds: 14.16

Profit/Loss: +51.98pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +23.84%

So by that we can deduce that backing horses at 7.9 or shorter next time out (from the 366) has actually returned a loss, which shows up like this:

Bets: 151

Wins: 35

Strike Rate: 23.18%

Average Odds: 5.07

Average Win Odds: 3.85

Profit/Loss: -21.13pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -13.99%

Interesting how a strike rate of 23.18%, with winners being fired in relatively often, is readily outgunned by a 9.17% strike rate above. Another example of how we should be patient when dealing with losing runs.

So let’s change tact for a moment, and look at ALL (regardless of drift) horses next time out which didn’t get placed for us (so should go off in theory a bigger price NTO):

Bets: 301

Wins: 35

Strike Rate: 11.63%

Average Odds: 21.05

Average Win Odds: 10.33

Profit/Loss: +44.23pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +14.69%

Not bad at all! So if we see a horse put in a stinker for us, perhaps we should look again next time out despite that.

Let’s run the same theory with the “on course drifters” struck out (leaving us with the 366):

Bets: 223

Wins: 26

Strike Rate: 11.59%

Average Odds: 20.24

Average Win Odds: 10.60

Profit/Loss: +40.02pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +17.95%

So a similar return, but with fewer bets, so a slightly better ROI.

What about those horses which placed for us, how did they do next time, first of all looking at ALL selections:

Bets: 184

Wins: 36

Strike Rate: 19.57%

Average Odds: 9.65

Average Win Odds: 4.45

Profit/Loss: -30.11pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -16.36%

So horses which ran well for us don’t appear to be worth following. What about just the winners?

Bets: 72

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 25%

Average Odds: 10.39

Average Win Odds: 4.73

Profit/Loss: +9.85pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +13.68%

So a profit there, although not a brilliant one. So it appears that those near misses for us (placed but not winning are really dangerous to follow next time out:

Bets: 112

Wins: 18

Strike Rate: 16.07%

Average Odds: 9.17

Average Win Odds: 4.16

Profit/Loss: -39.96pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +35.68%

So those near misses for us really appear to cause some damage if they’re continued to be followed (notice the average odds for them is 9.17 compared to 21.08 for those which didn’t place for us).

Let’s look at those last three tables purely looking at the 366 “non drifters”. We should see an improvement.

These horses went off at our advised price or shorter – and were placed for us:

Bets: 143

Wins: 29

Strike Rate: 20.28%

Average Odds: 9.83

Average Win Odds: 4.91

Profit/Loss: -6.17pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -4.31%

So that’s much better than looking at all selections.

What about the 366 non drifters whittled down to just our winners, how do they do next time out?

Bets: 56

Wins: 13

Strike Rate: 23.21%

Average Odds: 12.03

Average Win Odds: 5.67

Profit/Loss: +14.69pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +26.23%

That’s a good ROI, and despite the shorter win odds a decent profit/loss. So those horses that don’t drift from the advised price and win for us appear good to follow next time out.

For completion let’s leave out those who are placed for us (but don’t win) from the 366:

Bets: 87

Wins: 16

Strike Rate: 18.39%

Average Odds: 8.42

Average Win Odds: 4.30

Profit/Loss: -20.86pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: -23.98%

So, so far, we can see that based on the year to date, we’re better off focussing on those horses which don’t drift from our advised price next time out, which are either unplaced for us or win.

This makes sense, in that the winners have shown they can win and perhaps deserve to be followed, and those who are unplaced will naturally most usually go off a decent price next time.

So let’s look at all horses which a) went off shorter or the same as advised and b) either won or were unplaced:

Bets: 278

Wins: 39

Strike Rate: 14.03%

Average Odds: 18.55

Average Win Odds: 8.95

Profit/Loss: +55.71pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +20.04%

That is pretty good, but let’s look again using the same filters, with horses 8.0 or longer at BSP.

Bets: 180

Wins: 19

Strike Rate: 10.56%

Average Odds: 25.77

Average Win Odds: 13.85

Profit/Loss: +70.93pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +39.41%

That is a fantastic ROI, but perhaps we’re missing out on some of the profits of those winners for us going off at a shorter price NTO than 8.0.

Let’s combine horses unplaced for us going out at bigger than 8.0 NTO, with the winners for us going out NTO at whatever price.

First of all, the table of those horses unplaced for us going out bigger than 8.0 NTO:

Bets: 155

Wins: 15

Strike Rate: 9.68%

Average Odds: 26.56

Average Win Odds: 14.93

Profit/Loss: +58.56pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +37.78%

So combining the above with the “winners for us going out NTO regardless of price” looks like this:

Bets: 211

Wins: 28

Strike Rate: 13.27%

Average Odds: 22.70

Average Win Odds: 10.63

Profit/Loss: +73.25pts (including 5% deduction on each winning bet)

Return On Investment: +34.72%

Looking at the results, there were numerous big priced seconds, including at 17.29, 19.75, 23.59, 32, 23.37, 35.9, 82.66, 25 and many more, so there really does appear to be something in this. And while we are staunch advocates of win-only betting, each-way returns appear promising. Based on the BSP prices (which we know is an inaccurate way of looking at it given the higher returns of win only bets in relation, but is useful nonetheless), a 100pt bank, betting 1pt e/w on each selection, turned into 280.92pts, an ROI of +42.87% - with a placed strike rate of 34.12%.

It’s possibly to boost results further by striking out very long odd horses (those priced at 50+, for example are 0/20, but of course this is a small sample and we would only need one of these going in at some point in next 29 efforts to turn this into a profit).

So what to do with this evidence? There certainly appears to be something in it, and of course profits could be boosted substantially if we were to take advantage of early prices and not rely on BSP. This would be an assumption on our behalf though; we do not have early price evidence NTO to go on to hand.

In the short term, we will do exactly what we have done with the 2011 results, and go through our 2010 selections next time outs, and take it from there. It will take a while to sift through them all, but if results are anything like this year then there certainly seems potential to boost our profits (and indirectly gain compensation for those horses which run unplaced for us in our original method!).

We have a handful of places available to join our service at the moment, so if you would like to become a member do contact us and we'll be back in touch with you as quickly as possible.

Quiet day

Just the one selection today, which after racing prominently for a good while, dropped away.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.30 Musselburgh Ocarina 1pt 9/1 Lads/Bet365/Coral/Skybet/Betfred/SportingBet

We're marking up the selection as an 8/1 shot although hopefully plenty of our members got the 9s that was available for a few minutes in various places after the email was delivered. Just to reiterate, for the benefit of new members, we do this to hopefully make sure people have confidence that our prices are accurate and obtainable. As it was the horse went off at 7/1 so value was still just about had, although we didn't really get much of a run for our money, with Ocarina up there in the front two for the first circuit or so before dropping tamely away.

Summary of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Ocarina, 9th/10, 8/1 --- 7/1

Hitting the post

3/3 so far this month for our selections in shortening up nicely, 3/3 getting placed, sadly 0/3 finishing in front, but it'll come.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.05 Warw Crazy Bold 1pt 7-1 general (15-2 VCBet)

4.10 Nott Brockfield 1pt 7-1 Lads,PP,VC Bet, 15-2 W Hill,8-1 Boyle, Coral

Crazy Bold went off a well supported 9/2 shot and ran well, staying on nicely in the end after being a tad outpaced, but sadly eight lengths behind the winner.

Brockfield put in a very game effort over a C&D he enjoys and with conditions to suit. Out in front going into the final furlong or so, he was just outstayed in the end, after going as short as 1.40 in running. He went off a very nicely backed 7/2.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Crazy Bold, 3rd/10, 7/1 --- 9/2

Brockfield, 2nd/13, 7/1 --- 7/2

Back in action!

So we're off and running again then, and had just the one selection, at Exeter;

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.50 Exeter Rockabilly 1pt 11/2 Lads/Stan James/Skybet 6/1 Boyle/Totesport/Betfred

Rockabilly was making his handicap chasing debut for Nigel Twiston Davies' yard and made a big blunder at the very first fence that Sam TD did well to survive. That lost him around six lengths or so and plenty of momentum but he gradually worked back into the race and finished pretty well to come third, just behind the second though a fair way behind the winner. Not a great result, but we comfortably beat the SP of 3/1.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP)

Rockabilly, 3rd/15, 11/2 --- 3/1

**

Also, just to finish for now, we wrote before the break about whether it would have been profitable to blindly follow our selections next time out.

We will go into plenty of detail on this soon, but in 2011 the bottom line is that the answer is yes. Quite an interesting development , and watch this space for further analysis!