Sunday, 26 February 2012

Weekend Round-up

A poor weekend, and frustrating to reflect on yet another couple of second placed finishes for us win-only backers.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
2.30 Kempton Cool Friend 0.5pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Totesport&others 7/1 Hills/Bet365
3.10 Chepstow Hit The Switch 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Bet365/Totesport&others
3.45 Chepstow Dinarius 0.5pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Hills/Coral&others
4.20 Chepstow Lamps 0.5pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills&others
4.45 Kempton Ultravox 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Hills/Totesport&others

It was a busy Saturday and our best effort came from the very first to run, Cool Friend, who held every chance against the improver of the year Hunt Ball as they turned for home, only for the surely Cheltenham-bound winner to quicken clear smoothly in the closing stages. Jeremy Scott's 9yo went off at 5/1.

Hit The Switch had been nicely backed in the morning but ran an absolute shocker, never in it at all, after going off at 10/1.

Equally poor from Dinarius who went off at 22/1.

At least we got the price with Lamps in the next, going off at 9/2, but he couldn't get any closer than 4th.

Ultravox was our first 2pt pick for a while, and it was frustrating to see him make a mistake at the very first and struggling all too early, after going off at 12/1.

Not a good day!

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)
3.50 Towcester Cool Operator 1pt 7/2+generally inc. 4/1 Coral/Stan James

Plenty of support about for this one today early on today, and a good gutsy performance, but again we ran into a well handicapped sort. Philip Kirby's 9yo (SP 9/2) was on and off the bridle throughout, but kept finding for pressure and was bang there approaching the last, if not marginally in front. But a slightly guessy jump at the last didn't help and we went down by a couple of lengths.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 25th February 2012:

Cool Friend, 2nd/8, 7/1 --- 5/1
Hit The Switch, 7th/8, 8/1 --- 10/1
Dinarius, PU/9, 12/1 --- 22/1
Lamps, 4th/9, 11/2 --- 9/2
Ultravox, 11th/15, 12/1 --- 12/1

Sunday 26th February 2012:

Cool Operator, 2nd/10, 4/1 --- 9/2

So here we are, 26th February 2012 and we have 24 second placed finishes this year already, from 93 selections. That's 25.8% of all selections finding one too good, with the 24 having an average price of 7.6/1.

To put this run into context, in 2011 it wasn't until April 1st that we hit 24 seconds (from 188 selections (12.7%)). In 2010, we didn't hit 24 seconds until April 27th (from 228 selections (10.53%)).

Historically, until the turn of this year, 12.04% of our selections finished second, from 1328 picks. To be hitting at more than double this figure is quite something, more than one in four, and nothing other than a quirk in variance.

This doesn't make it any less annoying of course, but at least it's possible to put these results into some sort of context and realise that before too long these that go close will start to get their heads in front more often than they have been.

Roll on tomorrow!

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