Monday, 14 June 2010

Staking plan update

Long time readers of this blog will know that finding the perfect staking plan has always been one of the biggest struggles. How you combine the possibility of increasing the bank, while trying to protect it at the same time, I suppose is the ultimate pursuit.

Last summer I reduced my stakes to 1% of bank total (ratcheted at its highest point)(from 2%) and this has proved a good move, particularly in tough times like the last two weeks.

My defensive mechanism kicks in when the bank is reduced to half it's maximum, at which point a new 1% figure is found. After today's near misses that is all the closer. My bank was at its peak at just over £2,732. Now with some 39.5pts dropped, it stands at £1,652.86. I will continue to bet at the current level (£27.32) unless the bank reaches £1,366. At that point, my bets will revert to £13.66.

When the bank ultimately begins to climb again, which it surely will, I will continue this staking plan until I get to £5,000. At that point, I will change to a 0.5% of bank plan, ratcheted again at its highest point. In exhaustive tests, with data over many years simulated many years forward thanks to TSM ( - highly recommended), I have found that 200pt banks are damn near indestructable with a strike rate of around 16% with the odds that I play at, so when this point is reached I won't use the defensive mechanism of cutting stakes by half if the bank is reduced in size by half.

I have also recently been toying with the idea of at least laying off enough of my stake to get my stake returned assuming it can be laid off at a point or more shorter than backed at (in running if need be). This is something I will continue to consider and would certainly protect against the wild swings of late. I'm concerned that would ultimately affect the long term profits, so I'm not convinced this is the way forward. I will see though.

In the meantime, the subscription service will be launched in November and we can only hope that things turn around in the meantime for some to think it is well worth paying for! For sure, I would pay somebody £15-£20 a month for the work it takes to find our selections every morning, but I suppose I would say that! The website's almost complete, and we look forward to highlighting it soon.

Anyway here's to a change of fortune soon, hopefully within the next 10.5bets!

And also here's to a great Royal Ascot!




  1. the old staking question is a hard one to get right...i always bet 1% of my bank and stick to it.. if you lose half your bank then stop completley and revalue your betting or method of selections.. goodluck with what ever you decide and good luck at ascot

  2. You are to be admired for your honesty and integrity. Not many internet tipsters advise that they can have (and will have) losing runs.
    A winning way will come good in the end.

  3. Mate i have only started following you the last 2 weeks,Obviously not the best time to start.You have some lovely priced tips that are only just failing & from the look at your running total over the other 5mths i have no doubt at all you'll come good. Good luck mate

  4. Thanks thespeed capper, do you mean you bet 1% of whatever the bank total is, at it goes up and down? I used to do it that way, but found it slightly fiddly to administer, and also I had/have better profits ratcheting the total at a bank peak. It's certainly a constant conundrum though. I think the real secret is having a big enough bank in the first place not to have to worry about trying to accelerate growth, but that's easier said than done of course. Thanks for your well wishing, good luck to you too.


    Hi Wayward Lad, thanks for that, yes I've always been totally honest on this blog and will continue to be so. I find it amazing the number of dodgy websites our there which make all sorts of outrageous claims that they can't possibly deliver. Really enjoying your blog by the way!


    Many thanks 1x4MP - what very bad luck joining two weeks ago, really sorry to hear that, that's not great timing. But yes you're right, I'm sure things will turn around soon. Our selection process has turned profit in year after year (long before this blog started) and there's no reason why this should change in the long run, we just need a slice of fortune or two falling our way! All the best to you.