Friday, 16 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival Betting Market Analysis Day Four

Here's our analysis of today's betting markets so far. Again, not designed as tips as such but perhaps some useful pointers ahead of the final day of action! All the best for a great day.

1.30 JCB Triump Hurdle

Baby Mix is solid at the front of the market at 6/1, while most of the other principles are easy to back. The exception is Balder Success, with 8/1 the best price available about Alan King’s unbeaten 4yo. Elsewhere, with the layers pushing many horses out in price a little, the price for Darroun at 12/1, is stable.

2.05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle

The field down to 27 with Master of Arts a non-runner, and there is a lot of support for most of the fancied contenders, in particular Citizenship with Coral and Totesport among the firms to shorten from 8/1 into 6/1. There is still the odd bit of 7/1 available at the time of writing. Pricewise selection Olofi is another being supported, into a best priced 9/1, while Raya Star, Snap Tie and Magnifique Etoile are others being backed, and are best priced 10/1, 14/1 and 16/1 respectively. One of the reasons for these shortening is the opposition to Moon Dice, who is on a significant drift. Generally a 9/1 chance first thing, Paul Flynn’s 7yo is now as big as 14/1. At bigger prices, virtually all are easy to back with Sailors Warn and Desert Cry the two whose prices are holding up best.

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Boston Bob is a very solid favourite, with the Irish raider shortening with a few firms and a best priced 11/8. Elsewhere, Brindisi Brreze is being nibbled at in places and a best priced 10/1, while Sivola De Sivola is another being supported, with 20/1 available in a just a handful of places after being as big as 25/1 with Hills this morning.

3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

There can’t be many people in racing who wouldn’t love to see Kauto Star regain the crown, whether they’ve got money on him or not, but he is very easy to back so far, out to as big as 5/1 with a couple of firms. Long Run is also weak in the betting, and a general 2/1 chance now. Pricewise selection Synchronised has seen lots of support, over and above what we would even expect Tom Segal and a Non-Runner (Quel Esprit) would do to the markets, and is now a best priced 9/1 chance. Burton Port is also being nicely backed, and is a best priced 7/1. At bigger prices, Diamond Harry is the one of most interest from a market perspective, with 28/1 about Nick Williams’ 9yo the best price in most places.

4.00 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase

A fairly quiet day so far in the markets here, with Salsify (best priced 6/1) the one with the most widespread support. Elsewhere little bits of interest for Merchant Royal (14/1).

4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

Notable support for Bourne in the face of two Pricewise selections, with any 11/2 or 6/1 around the morning now long gone for Donald McCain’s 6yo (best priced 5/1). PW pair Toner D’Oudairies and Grandad’s Horse have both shortened in price with the later attracting the most eye-catching support of the two of them. They’re best priced 7/1 and 16/1 from 8/1 and 25/1 generally. At bigger prices, many are on the drift with quite a few firms, with the excpetion being Tim Vaughan’s Ski Sunday, 2nd in the 2009 Fred Winter, and beaten six lengths in the County Hurdle last year from a higher mark and a best priced 40/1, and Bocciani, who is generally a 33/1 chance.

5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup

A pretty brutal getting-out stakes, with 21 going to post for this handicap chase over the minimum trip. PW pick Slieveardagh has been nicely backed into a best priced 11/1, but of potentially more interest from a market perspective is Lucky William, who has been well supported on his handicap debut, into a best priced 16/1 after being as big as 22/1 in places this morning. Elsewhere Kid Cassidy is pretty solid at the front of the market, while Tara Royal has been nibbled at in a place or two.

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