Summary of Results

We hope you're having a good Easter weekend.

High time for our latest results update. It's been a fairly quiet end to the month, with some nice winners among our "of interest" mentions, but not unfortunately for our selections. Still, March has ended nicely in profit, our fourth profitable month in five, and we look forward to April getting going tomorrow.

We start with Friday March 22nd:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.25        Newb                         Ivor's King                         1pt                        8-1 general

OF INTEREST:

5.30 Newb Midnight Prayer 11-2

Ivor's King was very nicely backed, into 9/2 at the off, but set off at seemingly too hot a pace and he ended up fading out of it.

Midnight Prayer came fourth.

There was no turf racing last Saturday but on Sunday there was action, albeit we didn't have a selection - although a couple of interest.

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

No selections

OF INTEREST:

2.55 Wincanton Miss Tenacious 11/2
4.25 Wincanton Shuil Royale 7/2

And both these of interest mentions won, at 15/2 and 2/1 respectively. Miss Tenacious was probably fortunate, left in the lead when then most likely winner came down two out. Shuil Royale was really well backed and was a game winner (ironically from the same stable as the faller in Miss Tenacious' race). 

On Monday we had no turf racing, but on Tuesday we were back in action with: 

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40        Fontwell                Peut Etre Sivola             1pt                          6/1 Bet365/Boyles 11/2 Skybet/Bluesq 5/1 generally BOG

OF INTEREST:

2.10 Fontwell Mount Gunnery 4/1
4.10 Fontwell Mistral Reine 6/1
5.10 Fontwell Uknowwhatimeanharry 13/2

Peut Etre Sivola was heavily backed in the morning but drifted to a massive 12/1 at the off, before running a good race, finishing third, losing second close to the line. He was the only horse to really try to lay down a challenge to the easy winner, but couldn't peg him back. 

None of the mentions won, with Mistral Reine coming closest, finishing second at 7/2.

On Wednesday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.50         Wetherby             Global Flyer                   1pt                         8/1 Hills/Bet365/Boyles/Bluesq/SkyBet

OF INTEREST:

2.20 Wetherby Potomac 4/1

Global Flyer's effort was disappointing, finishing a well beaten 4th after being nicely supported into 11/2.

Potomac was unplaced.

Onto Thursday and we had no selections, but two of interest:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

No selections

OF INTEREST:

2.20 Ffos Las Pension Plan 7/1
5.15 Ludlow Silver Commander 7/1

Pension Plan was really well backed going off at 3/1 and won easily while Silver Commander would have gone mighty close had he not stumbled badly at the last when sharing the lead, after going off at 5/1. He finished third. 

No racing of course on Good Friday and then we've had a couple at Musselburgh this weekend.

On Saturday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.10         Musselbugh          Hawdyerwheesht           1pt                          6/1 Coral/BetVictor/Totesport/Bluesq

OF INTEREST:

2.10 Newton Abbot Laflamedeglorie 7/1
2.25 Musselburgh Excel Bolt 11/4
3.00 Musselburgh Kingsgate Choice 9/2
3.40 Doncaster The Welsh Wizard 9/4
3.55 Newton Abbot Keku Buku 4/1
4.20 Carlisle Solis 10/1

Hawdyerwheesht didn't look the most straight forward of rides, a bit unbalanced and a bad stumble half way round didn't help, but he was still there pitching as things got serious but just didn't seem to get home, after going off at 6/1.

A poor day for the mentions here, drawing a blank in terms of winners.

And then today, Sunday we went back to Musselburgh where there was a good support for a 4yo having his first flat turf start.

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.20         Musselburgh         Hell Hath No Fury         1pt                         6/1 generally BOG

OF INTEREST:

2.10 Towcester Tracking Time 11/2

Hell Hath No Fury went off at 11/2 and was up there until they turned for home but was readily put in his place, finishing well beaten in fourth.

Tracking Time was going along well enough until he unseated his rider at the 5th after being nicely backed into 7/2.

Summary of Results 

Friday March 22nd 2013

Ivor's King, 7th/9,  8/1 --- 9/2

Tuesday March 26th

Peut Etre Sivola, 3rd/8, 6/1 --- 12/1

Wednesday March 27th

Global Flyer, 4th/8, 8/1 --- 11/2

Saturday March 30th

Hawdyerwheesht, 5th/8, 6/1 --- 11/2

Sunday March 31st 

Hell Hath No Fury, 4th/5, 6/1 --- 11/2

It all means that March ends up +19pts in the end, from 25 selections. We'd certainly take that each month if offered and we'll be doing our best to keep it going through April.

Subs Costs Cut - seven day special offer

As you may well be aware, from November 1st 2012, we at The Market Examiner tweaked our selection policy on the basis of some intense statistical research into our results.

We have been delighted with the impact it has made, with 46pts of profit banked from 99 selections, a return on investment of a stunning +46.94%.

It all means we are about to post our fourth profitable month out of five.

And to celebrate our pending 100th selection since this new selection process was brought in, we have decided to offer a SEVEN DAY reduction in our 3, 6 & 12 month subscription rates - with the cut-price deal yours for life assuming you stay with us.

It means until the end of March 2013, a three month subscription is just £50, six months is just £90 and twelve months just £160!

And we guarantee we will NEVER put it up for as long as the subscription remains active. These rates are from when our service first launched in 2010, and more than 20% down on current prices. 

Please go to this page to make the most of this brilliant offer.

The offer is also available to existing subscribers.

Don't forget, you also needn't worry about losing days because of the weather, as we add days of turf racing lost to the weather to existing subscriptions.

Overall, our record since results proofing began on January 1st 2010 stands at a stunning +317.24pts (15.47%ROI).

If you have any questions about the service, please do ask. Email us at selections ( @ ) themarketexaminer.co.uk.

If you're not already with us, we hope to welcome you aboard soon.

March further into profit

March is turning into a cracking month, with two winners at 6/1 and 8/1 in the last two days, from our only two selections.

We'll be very much looking to knock in the hat-trick tomorrow, but as ever won't go chasing any selections. 

Since our more selective approach from November 1st 2012, our results have been this:

Bets 98 
Wins 15
Average odds 8.83/1
Average win odds 9.47/1
Strike Rate 15.31%
Required Strike Rate to return profit at odds played at: 9.6%
Profit: +47pts
ROI: +43.01%

Extremely pleasing, and naturally we'll be doing our best to keep things up in the months ahead. 

So since our last results update on Sunday, we've had three selections.

First up, on Monday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10         Southwell              Hodgson                      1pt                           5/1 generally BOG

OF INTEREST:

2.40 Southwell Zazamix 12/1
3.40 Southwell Likearollingstone 5/1
4.10 Southwell Zelos Diktator 9/1

Hodgson had been extremely well backed in the morning, and continued to be supported on course, going off at 4/1. He was cantering all over his rivals as they swung for home, hitting 1.27 in running but eventually got gunned down in second by the 10yo Categorical who really loved the soft conditions.

As for the of interest mentions, Zelos Diktator was a good winner, at 16/1sp.

Our next selection was on Wednesday when we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.05         Warwick               Madame Allsorts          1pt                          6/1 Hills/Coral/PP/Bet365

OF INTEREST:

4.20 Haydock  Mr Syntax 4-1

Madame Allsorts was a really game winner. She was held up out the back before being brought into contention by Leighton Aspell, and she saw it out in gutsy fashion to win by more than two lengths after going off at 4/1

Then today (Thursday) we had our 5th winner from 20 selections this month after putting up:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.40     Chep                                          Nicene Creed                     1pt                                            9-1 Tote, BSquare, 8-1 general

OF INTEREST:

4.20 Chep Salut Honore 5-1

Nicene Creed hit a whopping 150 in running before landing the 2.40 at Chepstow today. Starting at a really well backed 7/2 he was scrubbed along early on, but came into the contest for his jockey Paul Moloney (who was originally due to ride another from the stable, who was a non-runner). Still a couple of lengths down coming to the last, the 8yo stayed on really well to get up in the last 20 yards. Great stuff and another example of a gambled horse whose jockey wouldn't give up.

Salut Honore was pulled up, with his contest going to 15yo Victory Gunner, what a fabulous servant he's been to connections.

Summary of Results:

Monday 18th March:

Hodgson, 2nd/6, 5/1 --- 4/1

Tuesday 19th March

No selections

Wednesday 20th March: 

Madame Allsorts, 1st/7, 6/1 --- 4/1

Thursday 21st March:

Nicene Creed, 1st/8, 8/1 --- 7/2

So all in all a cracking couple of days, the flat season gets underway tomorrow and let's hope we can keep it going. 

Results Update

We hope you had a good weekend.

It's been a quiet weekend for us, with just "of interest" mentions rather than selections through Saturday and Sunday, so our latest round-up concentrates on Thursday and Friday, including of course the last two days of Cheltenham.

On Thursday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20         Cheltenham          Smad Place                     1pt                          10/1 Boyles/Stan James 9/1 generally bog
5.35         Towcester            Roseini                            1pt                         7/1 Coral 13/2 Bet365/Skybet 6/1 generally bog

OF INTEREST:

3.05 Towcester Burnthill 7/1
3.45 Towcester Roll The Dice 9/4

Smad Place ran well in the World Hurdle, after going off at 9/1. He had to be ridden two out but stayed on to grab third close to the line. 

Roseini raced out the back and stayed on really well in the closing stages, given far too much to do, going down by just a couple of lengths in the end, finishing 5th.

On Friday we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.40        Cheltenham            Bridgets Pet                 1pt                       20/1 BetVictor/Skybet 18/1 BlueSq/Stan James 16/1 generally BOG

OF INTEREST:

1.30 Cheltenham Rolling Star 10/3
3.20 Cheltenham Long Run 5/1
5.15 Cheltenham Alderwood 6/1

Bridget's Pet touched 2/1 in running as he came around the final bend close up on the bridle, but unfortunately he didn't quite have the legs to see it out and eventually fell at the final fence tired. It was a cracking effort particularly given he met some considerable trouble in running on a couple of occasions.

Alderwood was a winner for the "of interests".

Summary of Results:

Thursday 14th March 2013

Smad Place, 3rd/13, 9/1 --- 9/1
Roseini, 5th/10, 7/1 --- 13/2


Friday 15th March 2013

Bridget's Pet, F/23


So Cheltenham 2013 ended nicely up thanks to our 25/1 winner on Tuesday. We'd have loved to have follow up of course, and had a couple of decent efforts to do so, but we can't complain about our overall return. Keeps things ticking over nicely and we look forward to the week ahead.

Cheltenham update

Wow how good was Sprinter Sacre today, surely one of the best performances in modern times, seriously impressive. Let's hope he has the potential to be a horse the public at large can latch onto, though whether he ever has enough races for that to happen remains to be seen.

As for us, it was never going to be easy following up yesterday's 25/1 Day One winner, and unfortunately it didn't happen, although 40/1 shot Orsippus ran well for a good while in today's Coral Cup before ultimately fading out of things. Let's hope we can have another crack tomorrow.

Our latest results round-up starts on Monday where we had:

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10        Plumpton               Chilworth Screamer       1pt                        8/1 Hills/Lads/PP
4.10        Plumpton               Al Shababiya                 1pt                        12/1 Hills/StanJames 11/1 generally bog

OF INTEREST:


3.40 Plumpton Mr Muddle 3/1
3.50 Taunton Mobaasher 8/1
4.40 Plumpton Whitcombe Spirit 10/1
5.10 Plumpton Little Roxy 4/1

Chilworth Screamer looked a lively contender for a good while, before being a little one paced as things really got serious. He wasn't beaten far though, 3 1/2 lengths, and ran well on this drop in trip, after going off at 6/1.

Al Shababiya went off at 16/1, hitting a lot bigger on the exchanges before being backed in again. Thought beaten quite far in third, she didn't disgrace herself and might pop up somewhere in the future.

As for the mentions, Mr Muddle won at 9/4, while Little Roxy came second.

Tuesday

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.15         Cheltenham          Rajdhani Express           0.5pt                      25/1 Hills/Lads/BetVictor

OF INTEREST:

2.05 (originally 1.30) Cheltenham Champagne Fever 13/2

A brilliant day here, thanks to Rajdhani Express' superb win in the getting out stakes on the first day at Cheltenham. Always jumping nicely, he was given a superb ride by Sam Waley-Cohen, taking up the lead approaching the last and staying on really well up the hill to record a brilliantly game triumph. Superb. He went off at 16/1./

The only other mention on Tuesday, Champagne Fever, won the Supreme Novice at an SP of 5/1. 

Wednesday

TIME     COURSE            SELECTION              0.5pt/1pt/2pt win    Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.55         Hunt                    De Waiting Game                   1pt                  14-1 Tote, BSquare, SpOdds, 12-1 Hill,s B365, PPower
4.00        Chelt                   Orsippus                                 0.5pt               40-1 Lads, B365, 33-1 others

   

OF INTEREST:

2.40 Chelt  Houblon Des Obeaux 10-1

Not so good today then, with De Waiting Game pulling up after going off at 20/1 at Huntingdon. 

In the Coral Cup, Orsippus went off at 33/1 and for a decent while looked to be going along very well, but a slightly slow jump just as the pace quickened didn't help and he couldn't go with the leaders and he finished in midfield. 

The "mention" horse, Houblon Des Obeaux stayed on in the RSA but was never going to get there

Summary of Results:

Monday 11th March 2013:

Chilworth Screamer, 3rd/7, 8/1 --- 6/1

Al Shababiya, 3rd/7, 12/1 --- 16/1

Tuesday 12th March 2013:

Rajdhani Express, 1st/20, 25/1 --- 16/1

Wednesday 13th March 203

Orspippus, 15th/28, 40/1 --- 33/1

De Waiting Game, PU/8, 14/1 --- 20/1

Another brilliant day of action tomorrow then, and we'll be doing our level best to find a winner or two.

Have a good one

Sam and The Market Examiner team

25/1 winner on Day One of Cheltenham!

A fantastic day one of the Festival for our subscribers.

We had one selection, Rajdhani Express in the 5.15, the Novices' Handicap Chase, at a massive 25/1, and what a winner he was!

He was given a superb ride by Sam Waley-Cohen and was produced to win taking it up approaching the last, and then he bravely stayed on all the way up the Cheltenham hill to win  at 16/1 SP by a neck, fantastic stuff. 

Our only "Of Interest" mention today as well, also won, Champagne Fever, mentioned at 13/2 he continued to be backed down to 5/1 in the Supreme Novice, before beating My Tent Or Yours in a cracking finish.

We'll do a full results round-up tomorrow night.

It all means that of our last four Cheltenham selections (going back to last year), we have within that stretch had two 25/1 winners. It would be pretty special to keep that run going and we'll be doing all we can to give ourselves every chance. 

If you join us by 10.30am tomorrow, you will be on the list for day two, and beyond. 

If you'd like to subscribe, here's the link: http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-nowpage/

We hope we can welcome you aboard soon.

Is there value in backing at short prices at Cheltenham?

An examination of short –priced horses at the Cheltenham Festival 2008-2012.

This article was written by us for the Secret Betting Club Cheltenham 2013 Profit Pack - completely free to download via this link: 

We at The Market Examiner relish studying the betting markets, and the clues that can be garnered from them in terms of finding profits. For the last couple of years, we have looked at how profits, at least historically, can be garnered by watching late moves in the big handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival at certain prices.

But what about those horses at the front of the market? When a horse is priced up at 3/1 or shorter at opening show, in such competitive fields as Cheltenham, you know there has been long, sustained support for these particular animals, normally over several months.

So when we’re looking at the last twenty minutes before a race, should we take any stock in price shifts at this late stage?

And also, what is the record like of these “Cheltenham bankers” anyway?

First of all, let’s look at the results of them all, to BSP. All the results below assume 5% commission is deducted from winning bets.

Selections	57
Wins	17
Average BSP	3.10
Average BSP of Winners	2.73
Strike Rate	29.82%
Required Strike Rate	36.6%
Longest Winning Sequence	3
Longest Losing Sequence	6
Profit/Loss	-12.01pts

So it’s clear that to back short-priced horses at BSP in the last five years at Cheltenham completely blindly has been a losing strategy.

What about those horses that have opened at shorter than 2/1?

Selections	23
Wins	10
Average BSP	2.12
Average BSP of Winners	2.08
Strike Rate	43.48%
Required Strike Rate	48.1%
Longest Winning Sequence	3
Longest Losing Sequence	3
Profit/Loss	-2.75pts

As you might expect, a better strike rate, but still showing a loss to level stakes.

How about horses which opened up at evens or shorter?

Selections	14
Wins	7
Average BSP	1.85
Average BSP of winners	1.82
Strike Rate	50%
Required Strike Rate	55%
Longest Winning Sequence	3
Longest Losing Sequence	3
Profit/Loss	-1.56pts

So, we would have needed a strike rate of at least 55% to turn this into profit, nearly there but not quite. Big name casualties include Kauto Star (twice), Master Minded in the 2010 Champion Chase and Hurricane Fly in last year’s Champion Hurdle.

Of course most of these races are the non-handicap events, and what of those apparent handicap blots, the good things that surely will run huge races. This the record of horses from 2008 to 2012 in handicap contests  that have opened at 3/1 or shorter:

Selections	6
Wins	0
Average BSP	4.05
Average BSP of winners	N/A
Strike Rate	0%
Required Strike Rate	NaN
Longest Winning Sequence	0
Longest Losing Sequence	6
Profit/Loss	-6pts

Interestingly, only Ashkazar, in the Fred Winter back in 2008 was the only one of these placed, finishing second.

So what about the effects of market moves at these sorts of prices.

First of all, it is interesting to note that of the 57 horses which opened at 3/1 or shorter:

35 shortened in price; 9 stayed the same price; 13 drifted in price

So 61.4% of the horses which opened at 3/1 or shorter were backed in to an even shorter price. Surely the effects of great numbers of people wanting to get on the “good thing” in whichever particular race.

This very fact may be a reason why backing these fancied runners at BSP is seemingly unprofitable, the value has just been sucked out of the market (at least when blindly backed).

Let’s look at the record of the 35 horses which opened at 3/1 or shorter and shortened in price:

Selections	35
Wins	10
Average BSP	2.84
Average BSP of winners	2.81
Strike Rate	28.57%
Required Strike Rate	35.5%
Longest Winning Sequence	2
Longest Losing Sequence	7
Profit/Loss	-7.76pts

So we would have needed about 7% more of these selections to have won to have turned this into a profitable line.

What about those horses which stayed the same price (they may have touched different prices, but eventually settled at the same ISP).

Selections	9
Wins	0
Average BSP	3.75
Average BSP of winners	N/A
Strike Rate	0%
Required Strike Rate	NAN
Longest Winning Sequence	0
Longest Losing Sequence	9
Profit/Loss	-9pts

A pretty small number of horses really and possibly a bit of a quirky result. Four of these came second.

So what about the horses that opened at 3/1 or shorter, and then drifted in price:

Selections	13
Wins	7
Average BSP	3.32
Average BSP of winners	2.62
Strike Rate	53.85%
Required Strike Rate	38.2%
Longest Winning Sequence	2
Longest Losing Sequence	2
Profit/Loss	+4.75pts

Again, it’s a pretty small number of selections, but that’s quite an interesting result, in that we finally have come across a seemingly profitable line. Funnily enough, the World Hurdle has been responsible for three of these winners, with Punchestowns also being a drifting “qualifier” in 2009, finishing 2^nd after hitting 1.7 in running. It’s important to note that these drifts really aren’t big drifts, we’re talking a touch of unease, for example 5/4 to 11/8 (Inglis Drever 08 World Hurdle), 2/1 to 9/4 (Denman 08 Gold Cup), 4/5 to 5/6 (Big Buck’s ’10 World Hurdle). The sample is far too small to get carried away by, but it does appear that a slight drift on a well-fancied favourite close to post time is really nothing to worry about at Cheltenham.

Let’s now compare well fancied favourites in the hurdle races, compared to chase events.

First of all, how do horses who open at 3/1 or shorter do in hurdle contests:

Selections	26
Wins	11
Average BSP	2.9
Average BSP of winners	2.62
Strike Rate	42.31%
Required Strike Rate	38.2%
Longest Winning Sequence	3
Longest Losing Sequence	4
Profit/Loss	+1.89pts

So favourites in hurdles seem to have a better record than their chase counterparts; Here’s the table for them:

Selections	30
Wins	6
Average BSP	3.25
Average BSP of winners	2.95
Strike Rate	20%
Required Strike Rate	34%
Longest Winning Sequence	3
Longest Losing Sequence	13
Profit/Loss	-12.9pts

That’s quite something then, the well fancied chase favourites, at least from 2008 to 2012, have a far worse record than in the hurdles contests, perhaps a reason for Simonsig fans in the Arkle, or Dynaste in the Jewson to temper their enthusiasm a touch this year..

Just one final note to end on, some more food for thought.

If you blindly backed all the horses which opened at 3/1 or shorter at Cheltenham next time they ran (so, after Cheltenham, in either the UK or Ireland), this is their record:

Selections	55
Wins	26
Average BSP	3.31
Average BSP of winners	2.49
Strike Rate	47.27%
Required Strike Rate	40.1%
Longest Winning Sequence	8
Longest Losing Sequence	6
Profit/Loss	+7.83pts

A terrific strike rate, a nice profit, and a ROI  of +14.24%.

13 of these 55 horses which ran next time also came second. No surprise of course, that well fancied horses at Cheltenham are good enough to go somewhere else and run big races, but it’s quite interesting that seemingly they are better value at BSP next time than they were at Cheltenham, and of course that is what it ultimately all comes down to in the pursuit for profits.

If you would like a copy of the excel document which lists the names of all the qualifiers we’ve spoken of above together with the races they were in, as well as such stats as in-running lows and highs, trainer details, next time out results, and plenty more, please email us at selections@themarketexaminer.co.uk and we’ll be happy to send it to you.