Thursday, 7 March 2013

2013 so far

High time for us to have a look at some stats for 2013 so far (well, up to the end of February).

Safe to say January and February were a mixed bag. January was crushed by abandonments, and for us just 14 selections, of which none won, Samingarry's effort at Chepstow the "highlight", finishing second at 16/1.

Things bounced back nicely for February, mainly thanks to our excellent 25/1 winner at SP Barizan, with bog in play it was a timely boost to the bank, and with Speedy Bruere also winning before February was through we had rebounded and ended up slightly up for the year to the end of Feb, which is no mean feat given our strike rate was very low for the first two months of the year at just 7.69%. 

Here are the stats for January and February combined:

Bets: 39
Wins: 3
Win Strike Rate: 7.69%
2nds: 4
3rds: 4
Placed Strike Rate: 28.2%
Average Odds: 9.12/1
Average Winning Oddds: 12.17/1
Average advised price: 8.85/1
Average SP: 9.23/1
Profit: +1pt
ROI: +2.6%

All in all it's fair to say we're pleased to have still managed to eek out profit, however small. Generally speaking every 100 bets results in around 14 winners for us, so over the next 61 bets we're hoping for around 11 winners, a strike rate of just over 18%. Of course, racing's never quite that straight forward, more's the pity, but it is something that our strike rate almost always settles down over a period of time at around 14/15% winners, so let's hope it means we're due a nice little run - in time for Cheltenham would be good!!

A bit disappointing here to see that advised price didn't beat SP, although there were two or three huge on-course drifters which has skewed things somewhat. We expect this to right itself going forward. 

All in all, a bit of a stop-start opening to 2013, and we look forward to pushing on from here.

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