Cheltenham Day Two Market Analysis

What follows is market analysis released to members earlier, not designed as tips, but a short, and hopefully interesting, commentary of some of the main moves of Cheltenham on Day two so far.

1.30 Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders)

There has been very notable support about for Teaforthree, with Rebecca Curtis’ 8yo backed from a best price 7/1 this morning into around 11/2, 6/1 in places. It is all the more interesting given there is a Pricewise selection in the race, Soll, who has naturally also been clipped in with a few firms, although not spectacularly. He is now a best priced 7/1. Elsewhere there is a little bit of support around for Blenheim Brook, a best priced 20/1 chance.

2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

Batonnier being a non-runner just after 9am confuses the picture here a little (ironically a PW ante-post selection), but still there are a few attracting notable support. Monksland has seen a lot of interest and is now best priced 9/2, while Cotton Mill is another being backed to keep up a winning run, and is now a best priced 9/1 after 14/1 was available for times this morning. Sous Les Cieux has also seen a fair bit of support, while at bigger prices Secret Edge has been backed into a best-priced 33/1. Favourite Simonsig was fairly stable in the markets earlier on but lengthening with a few firms now and is a best priced 3/1 at the time of writing.

2.40 RSA Chase

All about Grands Crus, and he is very solid at the front of the market with any 6/4 that was about this morning now gone, with the 7yo 11/8 for David Pipe to justify the decision to skip the Gold Cup (although there will be many wondering what might have been of course if he hacks up). Elsewhere barely any support for anything else at present, with First Lieutenantthe runner whose price is holding up best in the face of Grands Crus support.

3.20 Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase

Sizing Europe is solid, and a best priced 10/11 at the moment. He’s been shortened with firms including Hills, Coral and Ladbrokes and any even money around that was available shortly here and there this morning has vanished. Realt Dubh for Noel Meade is being quite nicely nibbled at elsewhere, and is now a best-priced 20/1 from 25/1 this morning in places.

4.00 Coral Cup
Unsurprisingly Pricewise picks Get Me Out Of Here and Silverhand are among the horses who have shortened this morning, and are now a best priced 8/1 and 18/1 respectively (from 10/1 and 25/1). More interestingly perhaps is the level of support around for Son of Flicka.Beaten half a length in the Martin Pipe race last year off a higher mark, he was as big as 40/1 first thing this morning, but now is around half that price if not shorter. Elsewhere, being gently nibbled at, are Act of Kalanisi, Tenor Nivernais and First Fandango, and are best priced 18/1, 33/1 and 33/1 respectively.

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Gorgeous Sixty is about the most strongly supported Pricewise horse from a market perspective so far today, and is now an 8/1 general chance, after being as big as 14/1 yesterday, and there is little movement elsewhere to take much interest in, apart fromKazlian who has shortened with half a dozen firms including Ladbrokes and Bet365, and is a best priced 8/1, and a little bit of support around for Jackies Solitaire, now a best priced 22/1 chance after some 25/1 was around earlier.

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper

A fascinating market here with a few of interest from a betting perspective. New Years Eveis solid at the head of affairs and a best priced 11/2. Elsewhere the main contenders being backed are Sir Johnson, with 11/1 generally about the best price available at the moment, and Horatio Hornblower who is a best priced 14/1 chance. The New One (12/1)is solid and has been trimmed in a couple of places while Village Vic has also seen some interest and is a best priced 14/1 shot.

Not just Cheltenham today..

So, day one of Cheltenham in the books. What a story Hunt Ball is, absolutely fabulous. Some great action throughout and plenty more to look forward to tomorrow. Most of our attention from an investing perspective was arrowed towards Sedgefield today, and we came out nicely up because of that.

Let's start our latest round up from yesterday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Stratford Early Applause 0.5pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Boylesports/Betfred
5.00 Plumpton Ballyvoneen 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Lads&others 10/1 Bet365/Totesport&others

Early Applause went off at 13/2, and was quite warmly supported. Held up at the back, he pulled too hard for his own good, but was making good progress until a bad mistake three out which really knocked his momentum. He tried to come again, and did stay on to not actually be beaten that far in the end and may just be one to keep an eye out for.

Ballyvoneen went off a well backed 5/1 and traded quite low in running for much of the contest, going odds on at stages, but was infuriatingly a bit outpaced as they turned for home, only for him to stay on again at the end going down in second by a couple of lengths. Two other principles in the betting market had earlier fallen and it looked a good opportunity, but wasn't quite to be.

On to today, and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.55 Sedgefield Dr Flynn 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Totesport/BetVictor&others 6/1 SportingBet
4.00 Cheltenham Dancing Tornado 0.5pt 14/1+generally inc. 16/1 Bet365/Boylesports
4.15 Sedgefield Teerie Express 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads 13/2 Bluesq 7/1 SportingBet

Dr Flynn was nicely supported down to 10/3 at the off, and was given a superbly positive ride, to lead from pillar to post. Great stuff.

At Cheltenham, Dancing Tornado was held up out the back in a very patient ride in the cross country, but unseated his rider some way from home. We were sad to hear of the deaths of Scotsirish and Garde Champetre in the race, and our condolences are with connections.

Back at Sedgefield, and Teerie Express ran in snatches a little, but was still there two out with a chance, before fading late on.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday March 12th 2012:

Early Applause, 6th/10, 7/1 --- 6/1
Ballyvoneen, 2nd/8, 8/1 --- 5/1

Tuesday March 13th 2012:

Dr Flynn, 1st/7, 11/2 --- 100/30

Dancing Tornado, UR/16, 16/1 --- 11/1

Teerie Expres, 5th/8, 6/1 --- 5/1

So it's Champion Chase day tomorrow and plenty to look forward to. Quite an interesting card at Huntingdon too, and we'll be looking closely to see if the layers have taken their eye off the ball anywhere and being taken advantage of!

Cheltenham Festival Betting Market Analysis

What follows is an article we wrote for a Secret Betting Club "Cheltenham 2012 Tips Profit Pack" - which is available via a free download here - http://www.secretbettingclub.com/Cheltenham_Tips_2012/

It is an extension of some work we did last year, looking at betting moves in the ring ahead of the races at the Cheltenham Festival, we hope you find it interesting:

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Much is made of betting market moves in the last few minutes before each race during the Festival. The Cheltenham “jungle” can be an intense battle ground where backers and layers clash in a desperate attempt to win out, where fortunes can be won and lost. Of course these days it’s all backed up on the exchanges, where tens of millions of pounds will be matched over the four glorious days.

But what about these pre-race plunges, the type which Big Mac and Tanya will revel in during Festival week on Chanel 4, are they actually worth taking notice of? What would happen if you backed at SP every horse which shortens from opening show ?

We at The Market Examiner specialise in looking at the early market moves on any given day’s racing, and have turned nearly 300pts of profit since January 1^st 2010 (ROI +17%). Part of the reason for our success is our ability to, on average, beat SP with our morning selections. This crucial edge, the value in our punting, is all important in our quest for profits.

So with this in mind, to mark the success of market moves in purely results by SP is slightly unfair. Let’s first see how they perform compared to relative numbers.

Of the 232 Cheltenham Festival races, from 2002-2011, 889 horses shortened in price in the last few minutes before a race. This is 20.15% of the total horses that raced. Importantly, 30.6% of races were won by horses whose odds had shortened (71 in total). That shows that horses whose odds have shortened have won more than 10% more than the races than they should have been entitled.

But what does all this mean in terms of profits, and can we make the most of this interesting statistic?

The bottom line is, that if were to back blindly every horse whose odds shortened at the Festival at SP, we would be staring at a heavy loss. To be precise, -261.55pts, or -29.42% Return on Investment. There would be plenty of other systems which would return worse than -29.42% ROI during the Festival four days, but still, this, naturally isn’t ideal.

What about looking in more detail at race types?

If you were to just follow the moves in handicaps – you would be looking at -75.5pts (-18.33%ROI), whereas, if you were backing them in non-handicaps, the results are more painful: -186.05pts (-39% ROI).

So handicaps look more worthy of attention.. We’ve drilled down into the data and found two areas which may continue to be profitable going forward.

Interestingly, horses starting at 14/1 or shorter in all handicap chases – who have shortened up on course, have a much better record than those starting at 14/1 or shorter in all handicap hurdles:

Shortening horses starting at 14/1 or lower in Handicap Chases:

Selections: 135

Wins: 19

Strike Rate: 14.07%

Total Profit: +17.5pts (+12.96%ROI)

Shortening horses starting at 14/1 or lower in Handicap Hurdles:

Selections: 113

Wins: 8

Strike Rate: 7.08%

Total Profit: -37pts (-32.74%ROI)

That’s quite something, supported horses at the front of the market in handicap chases outperform their hurdle counterparts by nearly double. Clearly the cavalry charges of races like the County Hurdle are more prone to big priced upsets. So can we take advantage of this?

Shortening horses starting at 16/1 or higher in Handicap Chases:

Selections: 81

Wins: 0

Strike Rate: 0%

Total Profit: -81pts (-100%ROI)

Shortening horses starting at 16/1 or higher in Handicap Hurdles:

Selections: 83

Wins: 4

Strike Rate: 4.82%

Total Profit: +25pts (+30.12%)

A pretty brutal return for “fancied” big priced handicap chase selections, although there were five second placed finishes up at up to 50/1. It’s not a high strike rate among the hurdle selections, but at an average price of more than 28/1, it doesn’t need to be.

So in conclusion, we can say it could be worth looking twice at fancied runners continuing to be backed in the handicap chases events. And what about that unexposed type in the Coral Cup that’s been nibbled from 66/1 to 50/1 – maybe today’s the day..

Looking elsewhere, we thought it would also be interesting to look at the results of those horses which have gone off shorter than even money – and have contracted in price in the minutes before the off.

How have these “Festival Bankers” done over the last ten years?

Surprisingly poorly the answer.

Selections: 8

Wins: 2

Strike Rate: 25%

Total Profit: -4.26pts (-53.25%ROI).

So if Hurricane Fly hardens up from 10/11 on course into 4/5 in this year’s Champion Hurdle – that isn’t a signal that free money’s up for grabs. High profile defeats include Dunguib in the 2010 Supreme Novice Hurdle (4/5SP), Kauto Star in the 2008 Gold Cup (10/11) and Voy Por Ustedes in the 2009 Ryanair Chase (4/5).

Widening it out to include those horses trading at even money up to just shy of 2/1, here are the stats:

Selections: 32

Wins: 12:

Strike Rate: 37.5%

Total Profit: -3.55pts (-11.09%ROI)

An improved strike rate, but still not the gravy train of success we may hope for.

Of course – if we have already backed those 32 likely contenders at 2/1 or bigger, then we’re looking at a different story. Suddenly we’d have a profitable line and market confidence can only be good news.

In summary, market support is a key indicator to success during the four days of Cheltenham, and it could well pay to follow money right down to SP in the Handicap Chases, as long as the horse goes off at 14/1 or lower. Maybe it’d be wise to wait until the last few minutes of such puzzles as the Grand Annual before making a selection or two..

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Finally, here's a (non-affiliate) link to a website run by one of our subscribers, which usefully lists all the offers the bookies are running for Cheltenham, which may of interest too - http://www.freeeasybets.com/latest-free-bets/cheltenham-2012.html

Cheltenham Competition

As mentioned on Twitter last night, we're running a small free to enter Cheltenham competition for our subscribers.

Basically we're asking members to chose their "banker", and their "wildcard" for the big race on each of the days during the Festival. We've got a points system worked out, and £100 in Amazon gift vouchers as prizes.

Just thought it might be fun, and it seems to have gone down well, so good luck to all who enter!

On to today where he had one selection, which didn't set the world alight, to put it mildly.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1/pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.40 Warwick Shipboard Romance 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads

Pushed along all too early, he never looked like getting competitive, finishing last, after going off a pretty easy to back 8/1.

Summary of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Shipboard Romance, 10th/10, 5/1 --- 8/1

Three NH meetings tomorrow to warm us up for Cheltenham and hopefully a nice pre-Cheltenham plot or two has been hatched that we can take advantage of!

Dover's delight

A good winner today, as the racing world prepares for Cheltenham.

Not so good yesterday, and that's where we'll start with our latest round-up.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Wincanton Might As Well 0.5pt 8/1+generally
4.20 Wincanton Yellow Printer 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Hills 12/1 Totesport
5.40 Ayr Desertmore Star 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads/Bet365/Totesport

Might as Well ran pretty well for a long time, and was still bang there as they turned for home, but a mistake at the last didn't help and he had to make do with third, after starting at 13/2.

Yellow Printer (SP 6/1) was another who ran ok, after being heavily supported earlier in the day. He still held every chance with two left to jump but couldn't quite see the race out and had to make do with third.

Desertmore Star waved the white flag all too early, after starting at 8/1, and blundered his way out of contention in the end.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.40 Sandown Dover's Hill 0.5pt 7/1 generally 8/1 Skybet/SportingBet
2.50 Ayr Crop Walker 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Hills/Bet365BetVictor 7/1 Boylesports

Dover's Hill was a very gutsy winner. He led, jumping really well and surged clear after the second last fence but looked to be there for the taking as Ballyfoy came with a strong challenge. But Mary Hambro's 10yo battled all the way to the line and got there by a neck, after going off at 8/1.

Crop Walker (13/2) ultimately was disappointing after travelling well enough for a while.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Friday March 9th 2012

Might As Well, 3rd/6, 8/1 --- 13/2

Yellow Printer, 3rd/8, 10/1 --- 6/1

Desertmore Star, 7th/11, 10/1 --- 8/1

Saturday March 10th 2012

Dover's Hill, 1st/10, 7/1 --- 8/1

Crop Walker, 6th/7, 13/2 --- 13/2

Nice to have a good day today, and we'll hopefully follow up tomorrow as we build up to that roar at 1.30 on Tuesday..!

Quiet couple of days

Not much to report from the last couple of days, just the one selection yesterday, and none today.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.30 Font Sea Saffron 1pt 6/1+ generally inc.8-1 Tote, 7-1 BetVC,Boyle, 13-2 WHill, P Power

Sea Saffron was outpaced early on and was well behind, before staying on at the end to almost snatch third, after going off at 5/1.

Summary of Results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday 7th March 2012:

Sea Saffron, 4th/12, 7/1 --- 5/1

On to tomorrow!

Tuesday update

A poor day. We can look at a couple of selections and wonder what may have been but ultimately 2.5pts down and we'll look for better tomorrow.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.50 Newcastle Battle Honour 0.5pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Skybet 14/1 Coral

3.00 Exeter Taffy Thomas 0.5pt 14/1+generally inc. 16/1 Lads&others 20/1 Totesport
4.50 Newcastle Safari Adventures 0.5pt 8/1 generally
5.00 Exeter Homer Run 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Hills/Totesport&others

Battle Honour went off 10/1, was rousted along all too early and finished well back.

Much better from Taffy Thomas (SP 14/1), who gave us a good run for our money at big prices. Travelling nicely for a good while he was given a big bump and squeeze as he tried to mount a challenge before the last hurdle, effectively ending any chance, finishing fourth, beaten about six lengths in the end.

Likewise Safari Adventures was having a good time of it out the front after going off at 7/1, but was badly bumped five out by the eventual runner up which led to landing virtually sideways, causing him to lose all momentum and he was soon out of it. Was a long way from home, but he was travelling nicely enough and might be one to keep half an eye out for.

Homer Run stayed on to close on the leaders, but was never going to get there, finishing third, after starting at 9/2.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Battle Honour, 9th/11, 12/1 --- 10/1

Taffy Thomas, 4th/13, 16/1 --- 14/1

Safari Adventures, 5th/6, 8/1 --- 7/1

Homer Run, 3rd/8, 6/1 --- 9/2

On to tomorrow!

One of those days

One of those days today! Two selections, and once the first one was beaten a short-head we just kind of knew it wasn't going to go for us.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.45 Hereford Presented 0.5pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Totesport 7/1 Coral/PaddyPower 8/1 Boylesports

EARLY SELECTION

3.45 Hereford Romanesco 1pt 11/1+generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Bet365&others 16/1 Totesport/SkyBet

Presented was well backed into 4/1 and ran well. Always prominent he was coaxed a long for a while, but kept responding and was still going pretty well when he was headed going over the last hurdle. He stayed on all the way to the line and just failed, going down in a photo, well clear of third.

Romanesco was backed into around 8/1 but went on an alarming drift in the hour before the race, at one point more than doubling in price in the space of a few minutes. We have had drifters like this run ok before, but normally it's a bad sign, and so it proved today with Alison Thorpe's 7yo prominent for a while and seemingly running well enough before suddenly toiling and allowed to coast home in his own time. He started at 28/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Presented, 2nd/12, 13/2 --- 4/1

Romanesco, 10th/12, 12/1 --- 28/1

Good weekend

A good weekend, with one winner from our two selections, thanks to a terrific performance from Handy Andy yesterday, showing a lot of determination and quality to win by a length at Newbury.

Let's start there - we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.20 Newbury Handy Andy 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Bet365/Coral/Boylesports/Stan James

Handy Andy was returning to the scene of a C&D triumph last year, after dropping down the weights following some poor performances. Always prominent, he still had enough in tank after pinging the last to get up to deny the joint-favourite Tickatack, after starting at 6/1. A great ride by Joe Tizzard for his dad and a really enjoyable win.

Today we had a couple of selections, though one was a non-runner:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Huntingdon Layla's Boy 0.5pt 10/1 generally
4.50 Sedgefield Darkan Road 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Lads/Hills/Coral

Not a lot to report here really.

Layla's Boy was a non-runner.

Darkan Road was disappointing, ridden all too early and never really travelling, he ended up being pulled up. Perhaps the ground didn't help, but whatever, it was an altogether poor effort, after starting at 11/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 3rd March 2012:

Handy Andy, 1st/15, 8/1 --- 6/1

Sunday 4th March 2012:

Layla's Boy NR

Darkan Road, PU/11, 9/1 --- 11/1

So March springs into profit. Let's hope we can keep it there and really push on.

Low key Friday

Just the one selection today, a small bet on the well supported Marodima at Newbury.

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.55 Newbury Marodima 0.5pt 4/1+generally inc. 9/2 BetVictor/Boylesports/Skybet/SportingBet

It was pleasing to see Jamie Snowden's 9yo backed into 11/4 at the off, and as usual he set off in the lead. His jockey made sure he didn't race off too quickly, and he was allowed to have a narrow advantage for much of the way, until three out, when he was joined and quickly passed. He ran his race, but wasn't good enough on the day.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Marodima, 3rd/6, 9/2 --- 11/4

So the weekend's upon us. The next result update's likely to be Sunday night, have a good one!

February Analysis

Time to have a look back at February, which was of course severely hit by abandonments in the first part of the month. The number of lost days contributed to our lowest number of bets in a month since the seriously weather-smashed month of December 2010.

Let's have a look at the numbers:

Bets: 38

Wins: 5 (13.51%)

2nds: 9 (24.32%)

3rds: 3* (7.89%)

Placed total: 17 (44.74%)

Average odds taken: 7.83/1

Average SP: 7.62/1

Average win odds: 6.5/1

Profit/Loss: +4.5pts

Return On Investment: +17.19%

First things first, it's obviously pleasing that we ended in profit - nothing dramatic, but that's two of our last three months we've ended up. We would have been in profit for January too if it wasn't for the poor performance of our 2pt picks through that month which dragged us down to a small loss.

Without wishing to be something of a stuck record, the significant feature again was the number of seconds, which was again significantly high compared to our average. We had two 14/1 shots beaten just over a length and it's these sort of margins that obviously make quite a difference in the short term. Long term, it all equals out and we look forward to the adjustment coming.

The gap between our average odds taken, and average SP was small, although a little misleading because of the small number of bets and a couple of large drifts (Dinarius 12/1 --- 22/1, and Ski Sunday 11/1 --- 16/1 really affected the figure). Despite this it was good to see that we did beat SP.

On a wider picture, the month was very significant as it was the first where we introduced 0.5pt win bets in certain circumstances. Not a good start for these bets (Selections: 12; Wins: 0; Seconds: 3; Thirds: 2) but very early days and we fully expect these these to be profitable in the long-term.

* We have counted our placed fourth, Cloudy Too, as a "third" for ease of long-term reference.

Updates

We ended February with a good winner yesterday to ensure the month ended in profit. Today we had 0/2 for the start of March.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.25 Bangor Cloudy Too 0.5pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Totesport/&Others
4.35 Southwell Cruising Bye 0.5pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Bet365/PP 10/1 Totesport
4.55 Bangor Fishoutofwater 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills 6/1 Lads/Totesport&others

EARLY SELECTION:

4.15 Folkestone Upham Atom 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 6/1 Hills/Bet365&others

First up, Upham Atom came with a rattling late run to win the Kent national. Still a few lengths off the front pair at the last fence, he stayed on strongly all the way to the line and was always going to get there once in full flow. A great ride by Liam Treadwell who never gave up on him, after starting a well supported 4/1

Cloudy Too went off at 10/1 and was always there until the pace quickened and he couldn't quite go with them, but stayed on nicely to be placed in fourth.

Cruising Bye weakened out of things in the closing stages, after going off at 10/1.

Fishoutofwater ran well, after starting at 6/1 staying on well towards the end as the majority of the field called it a day, but could only finish a well beaten second, well clear of third.

Today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.10 Taunton Arctic Watch 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Hills/Totesport&others
4.30 Ludlow An Cappell Mor 1pt 6/1+ generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Totesport
5.10 Taunton Miss Brownes Fancy 0.5pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Coral/Paddy Power

Arctic Watch stayed on in the closing stages but was never threatening, after starting at 6/1.

An Cappell Mor (SP 7/1) ran really poorly, struggling early on and finishing tailed off.

Miss Brownes Fancy was a NR.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Wednesday February 29th 2012

Upham Atom, 1st/7, 6/1 --- 4/1

Cloudy Too, 4th/17, 8/1 --- 10/1

Cruising Bye, 8th/14, 10/1 --- 10/1

Fishoutofwater, 2nd/9, 6/1 --- 6/1

Thursday March 1st 2012

Arctic Watch, 5th/11, 8/1 --- 6/1

An Cappell Mor, 5th/7, 7/1 --- 7/1

Miss Brownes Fancy NR

February ended up 5.5pts up in the end (+17.19% ROI). We'll do a monthly review either later tonight or tomorrow.

Just to say as well, that we have begun a trial which, if successful, could, we believe, lead to something which could be very beneficial to certain members who struggle to get bets on each day, because of work commitments, or any other reason. Namely, we could be in a position to place bets on members' behalf. There'll be plenty more details and thoughts on this in the coming weeks, and it is very early days, but in the meantime, there's some more info here, on a blog written by one of our members: http://apuntersyear.blogspot.com/2012/02/shape-of-things-to-come.html. Many members of course would have no interest in this, but for those who may have, we think that this could be a very useful addition to our service. Watch this space!

Plenty of effort on show but no reward

Two selections today and lots of effort from both of them, but sadly neither able to do the business.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.20 Catterick Just Maddie 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Coral
4.50 Catterick Finbar Flynn 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Hills&others 8/1 Coral

Just Maddie ran her heart out, under pressure from some way out but she kept right up there, and was staying on again at the end. A couple of poor jumps didn't help her cause, she finished just out of the frame in fourth, after going off at 7/1.

Finbar Flynn was well backed and also couldn't be faulted for effort. Off and on the bridle for quite a way he kept finding and was still bang there, trading at just above evens for a time, but finally ran out of steam after the last, finishing fourth beaten a couple of lengths by the winner. He started at 5/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Just Maddie, 4th/8, 8/1 --- 7/1

Finbar Flynn, 4th/9, 8/1 --- 5/1

So the last day of a weather-effected month tomorrow, February's flown by really. It'd be nice to use the leap year day well with a couple of cracking winners, we'll see!

Slow Monday

Just the one selection today:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.45 Plumpton Quipe Me Posted 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Lads/Hills/Bet365/Totesport&others

There was no shortage of effort from Suzy Smith's nicely backed 8yo, but he just couldn't go with the front two as much as he tried, and he ended up finishing a well beaten third.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Quipe Me Posted, 3rd/6, 10/1 --- 7/1

Weekend Round-up

A poor weekend, and frustrating to reflect on yet another couple of second placed finishes for us win-only backers.

Yesterday we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Kempton Cool Friend 0.5pt 6/1+generally inc. 13/2 Totesport&others 7/1 Hills/Bet365
3.10 Chepstow Hit The Switch 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Bet365/Totesport&others
3.45 Chepstow Dinarius 0.5pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Hills/Coral&others
4.20 Chepstow Lamps 0.5pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills&others
4.45 Kempton Ultravox 2pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Lads/Hills/Totesport&others

It was a busy Saturday and our best effort came from the very first to run, Cool Friend, who held every chance against the improver of the year Hunt Ball as they turned for home, only for the surely Cheltenham-bound winner to quicken clear smoothly in the closing stages. Jeremy Scott's 9yo went off at 5/1.

Hit The Switch had been nicely backed in the morning but ran an absolute shocker, never in it at all, after going off at 10/1.

Equally poor from Dinarius who went off at 22/1.

At least we got the price with Lamps in the next, going off at 9/2, but he couldn't get any closer than 4th.

Ultravox was our first 2pt pick for a while, and it was frustrating to see him make a mistake at the very first and struggling all too early, after going off at 12/1.

Not a good day!

On to today and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.50 Towcester Cool Operator 1pt 7/2+generally inc. 4/1 Coral/Stan James

Plenty of support about for this one today early on today, and a good gutsy performance, but again we ran into a well handicapped sort. Philip Kirby's 9yo (SP 9/2) was on and off the bridle throughout, but kept finding for pressure and was bang there approaching the last, if not marginally in front. But a slightly guessy jump at the last didn't help and we went down by a couple of lengths.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 25th February 2012:

Cool Friend, 2nd/8, 7/1 --- 5/1

Hit The Switch, 7th/8, 8/1 --- 10/1

Dinarius, PU/9, 12/1 --- 22/1

Lamps, 4th/9, 11/2 --- 9/2

Ultravox, 11th/15, 12/1 --- 12/1

Sunday 26th February 2012:

Cool Operator, 2nd/10, 4/1 --- 9/2

So here we are, 26th February 2012 and we have 24 second placed finishes this year already, from 93 selections. That's 25.8% of all selections finding one too good, with the 24 having an average price of 7.6/1.

To put this run into context, in 2011 it wasn't until April 1st that we hit 24 seconds (from 188 selections (12.7%)). In 2010, we didn't hit 24 seconds until April 27th (from 228 selections (10.53%)).

Historically, until the turn of this year, 12.04% of our selections finished second, from 1328 picks. To be hitting at more than double this figure is quite something, more than one in four, and nothing other than a quirk in variance.

This doesn't make it any less annoying of course, but at least it's possible to put these results into some sort of context and realise that before too long these that go close will start to get their heads in front more often than they have been.

Roll on tomorrow!

Friday update

Another close but no cigar sort of day, with Sporting Boy almost giving us a nice return at Warwick.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.50 Sandown General Ting 0.5pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Bet365&others
2.05 Warwick Acapulco Bay 0.5pt 4/1+ generally inc. 9/2 Coral/Boyles
2.05 Warwick Sporting Boy 0.5pt 12/1 + generally inc. 14/1 Bet365
4.50 Warwick Mon Chevalier 1pt 4/1 + generally inc. 9/2 Lads/Hills/Totesport/Coral&others

General Ting was ridden fairly prominently, just off the leading pack, but couldn't really quicken when required to lay down a challenge. A mistake three out didn't help too. He started at 6/1.

Then we had the fairly unusual prospect of two selections in the same race. Acapulco Bay went off at 9/2 and stayed on into fourth. Better was from Sporting Boy, who despite pulling really hard during the early stages of the race was bang there at the last, but just couldn't see off the eventual winner, to go down by just over a length, after starting at 9/1.

Mon Chevalier was disappointing, weak on course, he started at 6/1 and while, in the end, he stayed on well and wasn't beaten that far, he never really had the pace to get into the contest.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

General Ting, 4th/13, 8/1 --- 6/1

Acapulco Bay, 4th/14, 9/2 --- 9/2

Sporting Boy, 2nd/14, 14/1 --- 9/1

Mon Chevalier, 3rd/5, 9/2 --- 6/1

Big runs at big prices but..

A couple of good efforts today at big prices from our two selections, in particular Phardessa who went down by just a over a length.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1p/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.50 Lingfield Just Playfull 0.5pt 20/1+generally inc. 22/1BetV/Skybet 25/1 Boylesports
4.20 Lingfield Phardessa 1pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Hills/Bet365&others 16/1 Totesport/Boylesports/Betfred

Despite running from well out of the handicap, Just Playfull was nicely supported this morning and went off a 16/1 shot. He was always up there throughout, ridden prominently, without ever really looking likely to grab the race by the scruff of its neck. In the end he couldn't go with the front pair, but stayed on well for third.

Phardessa ran a cracker. Held up to begin with, she crept into contention travelling well and went with the eventual winner two out, fighting out the finish all the way to the line. Sadly Richard Phillips' 11yo couldn't quite get past the big improver in the field Dream Again Boys, going down by just over a length, after starting at 10/1. She finished more than fifteen lengths clear of third.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP)

Just Playfull, 3rd/13, 16/1 --- 16/1

Phardessa, 2nd/11, 14/1 --- 10/1

Yesterday, 22nd February, we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.15 Ludlow Babysitter 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills/Totesport/Coral&others 6/1 BetVictor

Who was very well backed down to around 3/1 but was then pulled out as a non-runner.

Confirmation:

Babsitter, NR

Back to today, and aside from the fact that we're running at 23.45% of selections finishing second this year, the prices of them have been quite something, with 9/1 (twice), 11/1, 12/1, 14/1 and 16/1 shots all finding one too good. 2012 is nicely in profit but we feel a bit like a Premier League team 1 nil up at home to a League one side, in an FA Cup tie at 55 minutes, dominating, and pushing for the second. Once that second goal goes in the floodgates will open!

Not today

No return today, but we went close with Kap West who ran well at Taunton but just ran into one well handicapped rival.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.05 Taunton Kap West 1pt 9/2+ generally inc. 11/2 Coral, Tote, Betfred; 5/1 Lads, PP, BetV
3.40 Taunton Ski Sunday 0.5pt 10-1+generally inc. 11/1 Boyle, Coral, S James, 10/1 B365, Lads, W Hill

Kap West raced prominently and looked to hold every chance for a good while, but in the closing stages it began to become clear that he was likely going to be battling it out for second as the leader skipped clear. So it proved, with Laura Young's 7yo finishing runner-up, beaten just short of ten lengths. A good run but not to be, after he started at 4/1.

Not so good from Ski Sunday, who drifted to 16/1 and ran accordingly, well beaten from a long way out.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Kap West, 2nd/14, 5/1 --- 4/1

Ski Sunday, 10th/11, 11/1 --- 16/1

It's been a good February so far and we look forward to doing our best to get back to the winners' enclosure tomorrow.

One selection one winner

Things beginning to motor now with a cracking 10/1 (SP) winner to follow up our two winners yesterday.

We just had the one selection:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.10 Carlisle Teenando 1pt 7/1+generally inc. 15/2 Totesport/Skybet 8/1 Lads/Bluesq/StanJames

Sue Smith's veteran was heavily backed this morning but was surprisingly allowed to drift to 10/1 at SP, and won really well. Given a terrific ride by ten pound claimer Jonathan England, he was allowed to bowl along at the head of affairs for much of the contest and as others began to struggle in behind him, the 12yo found himself nicely clear and never looked in danger of being caught. The horse has a brilliant record at Carlisle and is a credit to connections.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Teenando, 1st/11, 7/1 --- 10/1

So, on to tomorrow, where we'll be doing our best to make it three winning days in a row and build on this good run.

Good Sunday

A good Sunday, with two winners and another second thrown in for good measure.

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Market Rasen Touch Of Irish 0.5pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/Betfred
3.00 Ffos Las Victors Serenade 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/SportingBet
3.50 Market Rasen Rich Lord 0.5pt 4/1 generally

4.20 Market Rasen Vin De Roy 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Lads/Hills/Totesport&others

Touch Of Irish went off a nicely backed 6/1 and made good ground approaching three out, and looked to hold a decent chance, but he was just a bit one paced and finished just out of the frame in fifth, beaten by the winner just over three lengths.

It was a great run by Victors Serenade, who jumped really well after going off at 4/1 on his first start for about three months. He always had enough up his sleeve from the eventual runner-up and could be called the likely winner from some way out, very nice.

Rich Lord was the only one of ours today to go off a longer price, starting at 7/1 for Ferdy Murphy. He was held up and perhaps a bit outpaced in the early part of the race, but stayed on strongly near the finish to get second, albeit well behind the comfortable winner.

Then came our second winner of the day, Vin De Roy, who always travelled nicely through his race and looked to just about have the better of Royaume Bleu as they came to the last, and was left in the lead when Alex Hales' gelding fell. He ended up winning eased down by seven lengths after starting at 4/1.

Summary of Results with Prices (advised --- SP):

Touch Of Irish, 5th/17, 8/1 --- 6/1

Victors Serenade, 1st/10, 5/1 --- 4/1

Rich Lord, 2nd/10, 4/1 --- 7/1

Vin De Roy, 1st/10, 11/2 --- 4/1

So a very nice 9.5pt profit on the day and we'll look to keep it going tomorrow at Carlisle.

No way Jayjay

Since the weather warmed up we've had a bit of a frustrating time of it, not least when Jayjay Valentine rooted himself to the spot at the start of the 4.20 at Wincanton today. More on that in a moment.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Sandown Martys Mission 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Totesport/VC/Betfred
4.25 Sandown Parsnip Pete 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Totesport/Betfred/SportingBet

Martys Misson was nicely supported into 3/1f and ran well, touching 1.5 in running at one point as he came to mount his challenge, but he couldn't quite see it out on his first run for more than a year, finishing second, beaten five lengths. He looks well handicapped at the moment for Paul Nicholls and surely is a winner in waiting.

Parsnip Pete's jumping let him down really. He made a couple of mistakes that knocked him off his stride, in particular as he was beginning to mount a bit of a challenge as the pace quickened. He soon weakened and was pulled up, after going off 6/1.

Today we had three go for us (or we were meant to have three go for us):

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.25 Ascot Viking Blond 1pt 7/1+ generally inc. 15/2 Lads&others 8/1 Hills/Bet365/PaddyPower
3.10 Wincanton Coup Royale 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Totesport/SkyBet/Betfred/SportingBet
4.20 Wincanton Jayjay Valentine 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Coral/Totesport&others 10/1 SportingBet

It's rare that a Pricewise pick is also a selection for us, but today Viking Blond ticked the boxes and we got the price as he went off at 6/1. He raced prominently for a good while, not getting the lead as he would perhaps have wanted, and he dropped away some way from home.

Coup Royale was also disappointing. Going off at 12/1 he never really showed up and ending up getting pulled up.

So then we turned to Jayjay Valentine to give us a late afternoon boost. Up from Cornwall with trainer Jackie De Plessis, who's had some good results down the years and just turned "professional", he had been extremely well supported It was fairly clear that we had problems though when he started to plant himself at the start, refusing to even walk around with the field. The exchange layers got stuck in massively, so much so that he went off at 69.19BSP! (Normal SP was 11/2). When the flag went up there was James Best doing his best to get him going but it wasn't to be and our race was over before it began. It's not losing a point that's annoying with this really, that happens, it's just the feeling that we perhaps lost out on a nice return. There was lots of support for this 9yo and it will be interesting to see what price he's put up by the layers next time. Whether he'll be backed like he was today however is of course pretty doubtful given what happened today!

Friday 17th February 2012

Martys Mission, 2nd/13, 5/1 --- 3/1

Parsnip Pete, PU/16, 9/2 --- 6/1

Saturday 18th February 2012

Viking Blond, 5th/12, 8/1 --- 6/1

Coup Royale, PU/10, 11/1 --- 12/1

Jayjay Valentine, RR/11, 9/1 --- 11/2

So a frustrating couple of days and we'll be looking for better tomorrow.

Every now and then we make tweaks to our staking, ours is and and always will be an evolving service. So with that in mind, from tomorrow, we will be introducing 0.5pt win singles to our armoury. Going forward, this will slightly increase our bet volume, although the majority of our selections will still be 1pt picks, with, as is currently the case, some 2pt selections aimed at our strongest bigger priced runners.

Going close

No return today, although Civil Unrest went close at Musselburgh.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.30 Leicester Sum Laff 1pt 6/1+ generally inc. 13/2 Hills&others 7/1 Totesport/Coral 8/1 Bet365
3.15 Musselburgh Civil Unrest 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads/Totesport&others

Sum Laff was quite strong on course after opening at 8/1, going off at 6/1, and clearly more was expected than transpired, with Charlie Mann's gelding pulling up after struggling from an early stage. It really didn't look like his true running.

Then came Civil Unrest who ran very well from the front on his handicap bow, but was headed after the last hurdle and finished second, beaten just short of four lengths, well clear of third. He went off 5/1 favourite.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Sum Laff, PU/12, 7/1 --- 6/1

Civil Unrest, 2nd/12, 6/1 --- 5/1

A cracking day's racing to look forward to tomorrow and it's great that it's free entry for Newbury. Wish we could be there!

One Swallow doesn't make our Wednesday

We had one, early, selection today running at Kelso:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

EARLY SELECTION:

2.40 Kelso Swallow 1pt 6/1+generally inc. 7/1 Lads/Totesport

There was a good bit of support about for Swallow, with James Ewart's 6yo going off at 9/2 on his handicap debut. He tracked the leaders well and was looking dangerous for a while, but it wasn't quite to be today and he dropped away to finish a fairly well beaten sixth.

Summary of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Swallow, 6th/14, 7/1 --- 9/2

On to tomorrow!

Green for go again

It was great to have our first selections today in more than a week. It's great also that the forecast looks much milder and hopefully we've seen the last of NH abandonments.

What wasn't so great was how both our selections flattered to deceive in their respective efforts today. Both travelled kindly for a long while, but didn't follow through with their efforts.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.20 Ayr Top Brass 1pt 12/1+generally inc. 14/1 Hills/Totesport/VC/SportingBet
4.00 Ayr Quinder Spring 1pt 15/2+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Hills/VC&others

Top Brass, coming over from Ireland, went off at 12/1 and made smooth progress after being held up in the early stages, going as well as any at one stage and trading just over 3/1 in running. But sadly the run couldn't be followed through and he ended up finishing seventh.

Similarly, Quinder Spring came with looked a promising effort after starting at 10/1, but it wasn't to be and Lucinda Russell's 8yo finished well behind. It was intriguing to see the way the layers had got stuck into this one on Betfair before opening show on course (14/1) and how he was backed in again to 10/1. There was plenty of optimism about this gelding and it ultimately has to go down as a disappointing effort.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Top Brass, 7th/10, 12/1 --- 12/1

Quinder Spring, 7th/13, 8/1 --- 10/1

So a frustrating return to action for us but at least we're back in the game and we look forward to the coming days and gaining compensation!

Battling win

Our first selection for a few days thanks to the frustrating cold snap, and it was a winning return with See The Legend holding on by a short-head at Ayr this afternoon.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.15 Ayr See The Legend 1pt 9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Bet365/VC/Stan James

It was the second time this year we've selected Sandy Forster's seven year-old mare, and again she was a little weak on course, going off at 6/1. But this time the morning money proved spot on as she battled to a gutsy success, narrowly holding Ancient Times as the second came right at her in the closing stages. She had to survive a stewards' inquiry, after giving the runner-up a little bump on the run-in but quite rightly (in our opinion!) she held onto the win. We were also helped a little by a poor jump by Ancient Times three out. That's four winners from our last eight selections (+19pts) so maybe the spin of fate is turning in our favour again. If so, layers beware!

Summary of Result:

See The Legend, 1st/14, 9/2 --- 6/1

No NH racing tomorrow, so no selections for us and the two meetings that remain on at present on Wednesday face inspsections in the morning. Just to remind you of our policy, all days of turf racing lost to the weather are added to members' subscriptions.

January Analysis

With a twist of fate or two through January we could have been sitting with good profits to kick off 2012. Of course, there's no real point dwelling on coulda woulda shouldas in this game, but still pretty annoying!

We broke our record for the number of horses placed in a month (34/62 - 54.8%), and had 16 second placed finishes (another record), at an average advised price of 7.7/1, including two two point selections at 11/1 and 12/1.

So with so many of our selections running well, it's frustrating to finish the month with a slight loss of 3.5pts when betting to win-only.

Anyway let's have a look at the numbers:

Bets: 62

Wins: 10 (16.13%)

2nds: 16 (25.81%%)

3rds: 8 (12.9%)

Placed total: 34 (54.8%)

Average odds taken: 7.18/1

Average SP: 6.54/1

Average win odds: 5.65/1

Profit/Loss: -3.5pts

Return On Investment: -5%

As we wrote on the blog recently, it's unusual to have winners outperformed by either 2nds or 3rds. Up until Dec 31st 2011, the breakdown was this:

Of all placed selections, they finished:

1st - 38.43% of the time

2nd - 32.19%

3rd/4th - 29.38%

But for January just gone it ended like this (from all placed selections)

1sts - 29.41%

2nds - 47.06%

3rds - 23.5%

To delve a little deeper, (please forgive us if we're getting boring now) 38.43% (our usual win rate of our placed selections) of 34 (all placed selections this month)) is just above 13.

So perhaps we could have reasonably expected 13 winners this month given our number of placed efforts, rather than 10.

Extending this further, 7.35/1 was the average price of our seconds and thirds this month, so if we times 7.35 by 3 (the additional winners we may have reasonably expected to have), that's 21.54 - or in other words 24.54pts of extra profits (3 pts of stakes being returned).

So instead of -3.5pts, a much more tasty 21pts of profit (and that doesn't include the chance of one of our three placed big priced 2pt selections coming in)!

I'm sure many readers by now will be thinking yes yes yes but the results were -3.5pts. And of course that's right, all this is completely immaterial! But it does show we weren't far away from a decent month (be that reassuring, or frustrating, whichever your frame of mind!).

Enough statistical waffle, let's just hope for a return to warmer weather and a nice profitable February ahead. We're certainly due a very good month, let's hope it's just around the corner.

Slow couple of days

Just a couple of selections these last couple of days.

Yesterday, to end the month, we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.40 Taunton Onefourfun 1pt 4/1 +generally 9/2 Hills/Totesport/PaddyPower/VC&others

Onefourfun had been nicely backed but drifted to 7/1 at the off and after making a short-lived effort around three out he faded to be well beaten.

Then today on a day with two NH meetings abandoned, we had one selection at Newcastle:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.50 Newcastle Strathaird 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Hills/Bet365/PP&others

Strathaird seemed a little outpaced early on and was staying on strongly at the end, but was just never going to get there, finishing third, beaten about five lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Tuesday 31st January 2012

Onefourfun, 9th/14, 9/2 --- 7/1

Wednesday 1st February 2012

Strathaird, 3rd/8, 9/2 --- 4/1

Tomorrow's meeting at Towcester has already been abandoned while Wincanton will have a check in the morning, so fingers crossed that gets the green light.

In the next couple of days we'll release our January review.

In the meantime, in case you've missed it so far, there's an interesting interview with Hugh Taylor over at http://www.fulltimebettingblog.com/. Well worth a read! In the next few weeks we'll be profiled on there too, so maybe look out for that if you're interested!