Saturday, 21 March 2009

A hectic Saturday ahead

Well this could be total carnage, or it could be a dramatic return to winning ways. Let's hope it's the latter!!!

I'm on:

Stratford 14:25 Zelos, 12/1 Bet Fred

Stratford 14:55 Fontanesi, 13/2 Sky Bet

Haydock 15:15 Saunders Road, 4/1 Bet Fred

Bangor, 16:30 Rathcor, 8/1 Stan James

Stratford 16:35 Bali Bay, 5/1 Bet365

Haydock, 16.55, All For The Cause, , 8/1 Stan James


A few of these ran with some credit but none could get their heads in front. Check out the SPs, they were all backed all day, so lots of money lost. Things have got to turn soon, at least in the next few weeks.

Zelos, 3rd, 5-1

Fontanesi, 2nd 11-2

Saunders Road, PU, 5-2

Rathcor, 3rd, 4-1

Bali Bay, 6th, 7-2

All for the Cause, 5th, 4-1

Below is the graph with the staking plan I am currently using, with ratchet stakes betting at level stakes since it's highest peak. I am hoping this is about as bad as it gets.

A few weeks ago, I mentioned how that the staking plan I want to do, to avoid bust banks, was to reduce the stake by half when the bank gets to 50% of its peak, (and then reduce the stakes again should it get it to 50% of that etc). Because I am playing with relatively small stakes, I decided to let things run and hope they correct themselves without that being necessary. With that in mind, I am happy to invest another £150 into the betting bank, if necessary, (I have money currently in my Full Tilt poker account I can withdraw) and keep with the current stakes of £6.24 until that is bust (obviously hoping that doesn't happen). I have so much research and paper trading behind me that I am totally confident things will correct themselves eventually.

Interestingly, if I had just gone with level stakes from day one since beginning this betting bank, I would just be marginally under the amount I started with. This is that particularly graph.

Tonight I plan to do some research into horses backed over the price of 11-1. My latest research which I can get to relatively easily goes back to July 2007 so I will base my findings on that. I'll report back later with conclusions. Infuriatingly since July 2007 the longest losing run has been 30. Guess when that was - yep it ended last week! Before that we have to go back 18 months when a run of 27 losers was found. In the meantime, let's hope for a winner or two at some point soon!


  1. Hi There,
    Yes, it's been a testing time of late, but sure things will take a turn for the better soon.