Sunday, 22 March 2009

To back long odds or not to back long odds

That is the question.

And for this purpose I mean 11-1 or longer.

Have spent quite a lot of the evening looking back at all my records, and the results are a little inconclusive. As you'd expect they are less likely to win than the shorter priced selections but of course return a fair bit more.

In the last six months, it's shown that it would have been wise to leave them out. But in the twelve months before that, backing them did show a profit.

I think what I've been most guilty about is chosing a horse which isn't quite a system selection just on account of the large price. These are the runners which really do struggle. So I'm just going to be strict with myself. Don't get swayed by big odds over all else, and just back all horses in the same way regardless of price. I wouldn't ignore a factor or two to back a 4/1 shot so why should I about a 25/1 shot? Certainly I won't from now on after looking back at results.

Onwards and upwards - and I'm pleased to have the poker - I made all I lost today and a fair bit more in a session this evening. It's there if I need it, so will make the transfer to my bookies accounts if they need propping up.

It's all about the long term, there are peaks and troughs - as shown in the below graph which charts all the system selections I have on the computer, to level stakes (the percentage bank system goes off the wall and doesn't make for a very good graph).

At the end of the day my latest bank is only with 187 selections. At least a 1000 are needed I'd say before getting a true picture about whether things are going really well or not. It's just typical that a run like I'm on has to come in these relatively early days, and even more typical that it coincides with the start of this blog!

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