Well then, it's almost here. This time tomorrow we'll be examining the betting markets looking for our first selections for the first official day within the subscription era of www.themarketexaminer.co.uk!
If you are still undecided about joining in why not give it a go for a month and see what you think. Obviously we can't guarantee a profit in four weeks time, but with nine out of ten profitable months of this year we are quietly confident of starting strongly. Selections will be sent out at around 11.00 each morning via a daily email, it shouldn't take longer than around five or ten minutes a day to be involved.
We will be updating results regularly on this blog, and on the main website as well, so if you don't want to join just now, just keep checking in and see how things are getting on. Hopefully we can prove that we'll have a service that's worth being a part of.
Before it all starts tomorrow though, let's have our last look back at 2010. Today, as promised earlier in the week, we'll look at a couple of selections which drifted markedly before post time, but still managed to land the odds. Clearly our idea is to lock in value and beat SP with each and every selection, but that isn't always possible. While it's never a good sign to see a selection drift, the drifters do sometimes win, and with best odds guaranteed in play with nearly all bookies these days then it can just make a day even more profitable.
Here are a couple of examples.
1) Date: 11th May; Track: Warwick; Selection: Step It Up
James Boyle's sprinter Step It Up headed to Warwick back in May and was looking for his first win over the minimum trip on turf since the August of the previous year.
Over a few attempts on the all-weather, he was given seemingly a tough task on softish ground over six furlongs at Folkestone in April before the day in question, over ground a bit quicker.
Nicely backed in the morning, we put him up as a 1pt win single at a best price of 9/1. By the time on course market opened however, he was 14/1, and eventually started at 16/1 with the bookies, and a massive 25.19 on Betfair.
Not a good sign by the looks of it, but the six year old of course knew little of the lack of late confidence, and he was definitely trying. Held up at the back, he started to make ground over half way through, and took the lead in the final furlong to eventually win by a head. The 1/2 favourite Lost In Paris, looking to win under a penalty after a ridiculously easy victory a week before, could only finish third.
A result which looked unlikely given the drift had come in, and with best odds guaranteed in play we had a further 7pts in the bank we wouldn't otherwise have had.
Step It Up hasn't been placed since, in eight attempts.
2) Date: 3rd July; Track: Leicester; Selection: Thalia Grace
Similar to Step It Up, Thalia Grace was running in a sprint handicap, this time just short of six furlongs, at Leicester.
However, while Step It Up was a hardened handicap campaigner, this was Thalia Grace's first venture into such company. Off a mark of 54, she was nicely backed in the morning and we made her a selection at 8/1.
The drift began at around noon, and by the time the market opened on course for the opening race of the day, Thalia Grace was a 14/1 shot.
By the time the race began she was out to 16/1, after hitting 18s briefly. On the exchanges she went off at 22.01.
Always prominent, she was right up there with the leaders until she struck the front just over a furlong from home and was hard driven to stay there. And stay there she did, really finishing strongly to win by 1 1/2 lengths and having them nicely stretched out behind for Kirsty Milczarek.
It may have been Coral Eclipse day but this was the highlight for us, a cracking result and giving July the perfect start with a 16pt profit, double of that we were hoping for in the morning.
So just a couple of examples of why morning money can count for a lot even despite a drift late on.
If you would like to join the service before we get going tomorrow please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Sunday, 31 October 2010
Saturday, 30 October 2010
Two days to go!
We're all set for Monday's official launch of http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/. But there's still time to join up before the big day!
We continue the build up with another look back piece on 2010's results - and it's a straight forward one. Return on investment.
ROI clearly is a cracking way of seeing how services compare - for those not sure of the term, it basically means how much is wagered to get the overall return.
There's a simple formula to find this - overall profit divided by total staked.
In 2010 for us this equates to 162.85pts (profit) divided by 728 points (staked).
This means our ROI for this year so far is 22.37% - as most professional punters are aiming to get to anything above 10% that's a pretty decent figure in anyone's book!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on Monday you'd be very welcome. Please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
We continue the build up with another look back piece on 2010's results - and it's a straight forward one. Return on investment.
ROI clearly is a cracking way of seeing how services compare - for those not sure of the term, it basically means how much is wagered to get the overall return.
There's a simple formula to find this - overall profit divided by total staked.
In 2010 for us this equates to 162.85pts (profit) divided by 728 points (staked).
This means our ROI for this year so far is 22.37% - as most professional punters are aiming to get to anything above 10% that's a pretty decent figure in anyone's book!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on Monday you'd be very welcome. Please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Friday, 29 October 2010
Three days to go!
There is still time to join the service at www.themarketexaminer.co.uk before we get going but the days are running out! A real feeling of excitement here that this weekend will be the last for quite some time without selections being found.
For the last week or so we have been building up to the launch with a look back at notable days/events/results of 2010, and today we continue with a little look at in-running prices.
We were keen to see whether the morning advised price would more often that not hit that mark or bigger in running on the way to a winning race.
Well, interestingly, and despite the obvious fluctuations in in-running prices, the answer is - yes - but not often enough for it to be a winning strategy to follow for those who can't get on at the morning prices.
We have seen 93 winners in all this year - and the number of selections which hit the morning price in running or bigger - was 69. That's 74.1% of winning picks.
Sometimes, as we've looked at this week, the in-running prices have been much bigger before going on to a win, but obviously most of the time a big in-running price leads to defeat.
Finding the best odds with the bookies in the morning, preferably with best odds guaranteed in play, is the best way to play our selections. That obviously isn't really surprising as we are searching for horses likely to shorten further before post time.
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
For the last week or so we have been building up to the launch with a look back at notable days/events/results of 2010, and today we continue with a little look at in-running prices.
We were keen to see whether the morning advised price would more often that not hit that mark or bigger in running on the way to a winning race.
Well, interestingly, and despite the obvious fluctuations in in-running prices, the answer is - yes - but not often enough for it to be a winning strategy to follow for those who can't get on at the morning prices.
We have seen 93 winners in all this year - and the number of selections which hit the morning price in running or bigger - was 69. That's 74.1% of winning picks.
Sometimes, as we've looked at this week, the in-running prices have been much bigger before going on to a win, but obviously most of the time a big in-running price leads to defeat.
Finding the best odds with the bookies in the morning, preferably with best odds guaranteed in play, is the best way to play our selections. That obviously isn't really surprising as we are searching for horses likely to shorten further before post time.
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Thursday, 28 October 2010
Four days to go
November 1st is drawing ever closer, as we look forward to the official subscription launch of http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/.
We continue the build up with another look back at a notable event of 2010. As we mentioned the other day, we have never and never will try to claim that winning comes easily. With a win strike rate of around 17%, amidst average odds of around 7/1, losing spells have and will come along.
Yesterday we noted three of our biggest, successful movers of 2010. Today we look back at three of the biggest movers which made it as selections, only to not return the cash.
1) Date: 4th February; Track: Towcester; Selection: Nous Voila
When Alan Coogan's gelding Nous Voila turned up at Towcester back in February in a handicap hurdle, he was searching for his first win in more than four years. However this was a horse that was once rated at 133, now racing off 87, and it appeared that today was meant to be the day.
Put up as a selection at 10/1, he opened on course at 8/1 before being backed right down to 5/1 for the start of the race.
Things didn't go smoothly from this point onwards however. He didn't jump particularly smoothly, and even stumbled quite badly over one of the flights early on. Racing prominently, he was being shoved along to stay in contention and by the time the race neared the end he dropped tamely away to be extremely well beaten back in fifth place (the last of those to make it around.).
Fingers were burnt on that occassion, although it was interesting to see him win officially by a distance next time out - when he wasn't a selection for us - at an SP of 5/1.
2) Date: 10th April; Track: Chepstow; Selection: Stripe Me Blue
Stripe Me Blue was our only selection on Grand National Day this year. A 2pt win bet on at 5/1, he opened on course for his handicap hurdle at 7/2. It was his first time dropped back in distance a little for some time (Dec 2008) and he was being strongly fancied to make it a third career win.
Backed into favouritism at 15/8, he was set off in the lead and stayed there until there were two flights left to jump. Short of room a little, he was still in contention before failing to find much in the closing stages to finish in third place, beaten around three lengths.
Next time out, he slipped up at Sandown when going off an unfancied 16/1 shot and hasn't run since.
3) Date: 15th July; Track: Hamilton; Selection: Royal Holiday
We move to the summer for our third and final notable loser. Royal Holiday was racing over a mile at Hamilton and was looking for his first win as a three year old. His handicap mark had been tumbling since winning on the sand at Southwell in the August the year before and with Dale Swift taking off a further seven pounds, it appeared today was meant to be his day.
We put the gelding up as a selection at 10/1 in the morning, and by the time the market opened on course he was 13/2. At post time he had supported further, into 9/2.
In the race itself though he never showed a thing, racing in mid division before being ridden a couple of furlongs out, fading away to finish a very well beaten 9th/10.
Four races later, back at Southwell (his first race back there), he won at 16/1.
All these selections could obviously have been traded off for a profit given the price moves. Over time we have found backing at win-only is the way to go though - it just pays to take the rough with the smooth - and these days it was definitely the turn of the rough!
Fortunately of course over time getting this sort of value in our selections does return good profits so if you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now.
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
We continue the build up with another look back at a notable event of 2010. As we mentioned the other day, we have never and never will try to claim that winning comes easily. With a win strike rate of around 17%, amidst average odds of around 7/1, losing spells have and will come along.
Yesterday we noted three of our biggest, successful movers of 2010. Today we look back at three of the biggest movers which made it as selections, only to not return the cash.
1) Date: 4th February; Track: Towcester; Selection: Nous Voila
When Alan Coogan's gelding Nous Voila turned up at Towcester back in February in a handicap hurdle, he was searching for his first win in more than four years. However this was a horse that was once rated at 133, now racing off 87, and it appeared that today was meant to be the day.
Put up as a selection at 10/1, he opened on course at 8/1 before being backed right down to 5/1 for the start of the race.
Things didn't go smoothly from this point onwards however. He didn't jump particularly smoothly, and even stumbled quite badly over one of the flights early on. Racing prominently, he was being shoved along to stay in contention and by the time the race neared the end he dropped tamely away to be extremely well beaten back in fifth place (the last of those to make it around.).
Fingers were burnt on that occassion, although it was interesting to see him win officially by a distance next time out - when he wasn't a selection for us - at an SP of 5/1.
2) Date: 10th April; Track: Chepstow; Selection: Stripe Me Blue
Stripe Me Blue was our only selection on Grand National Day this year. A 2pt win bet on at 5/1, he opened on course for his handicap hurdle at 7/2. It was his first time dropped back in distance a little for some time (Dec 2008) and he was being strongly fancied to make it a third career win.
Backed into favouritism at 15/8, he was set off in the lead and stayed there until there were two flights left to jump. Short of room a little, he was still in contention before failing to find much in the closing stages to finish in third place, beaten around three lengths.
Next time out, he slipped up at Sandown when going off an unfancied 16/1 shot and hasn't run since.
3) Date: 15th July; Track: Hamilton; Selection: Royal Holiday
We move to the summer for our third and final notable loser. Royal Holiday was racing over a mile at Hamilton and was looking for his first win as a three year old. His handicap mark had been tumbling since winning on the sand at Southwell in the August the year before and with Dale Swift taking off a further seven pounds, it appeared today was meant to be his day.
We put the gelding up as a selection at 10/1 in the morning, and by the time the market opened on course he was 13/2. At post time he had supported further, into 9/2.
In the race itself though he never showed a thing, racing in mid division before being ridden a couple of furlongs out, fading away to finish a very well beaten 9th/10.
Four races later, back at Southwell (his first race back there), he won at 16/1.
All these selections could obviously have been traded off for a profit given the price moves. Over time we have found backing at win-only is the way to go though - it just pays to take the rough with the smooth - and these days it was definitely the turn of the rough!
Fortunately of course over time getting this sort of value in our selections does return good profits so if you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now.
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Wednesday, 27 October 2010
Five days to go
Getting really very close now to the official launch of the service from http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/! It all kicks off from next Monday, November 1st, and there is still time to join in if you would like to.
We continue our look back at notable days/results/goings on from 2010 today, with three of the biggest market moves which landed. There have obviously been quite a few of these this year, but these are some of the key ones.
1) Date: 19th March; Track: Fakenham; Selection: Bromhead.
Bromhead, a four year old hurdler, headed to Fakenham for a selling handicap hurdle, looking for his first win since landing a maiden on the all weather at Lingfield in January the previous year. He had been given a mark of 84 and was having his first crack at a handicap, and only his second race since joining Kevin Morgan.
Clearly there was a good deal of confidence behind this move into handicap company, as he was the subject of a good move in the morning, and was put up as a 2pt selection at 9/1.
Bromhead opened on track at 7/1 and that's when the money really came. Backed as if losing was out of the question, he shortened right down to 10/3 before post time.
The race itself was a straight forward affair. Racing a good deal of the race in midfield, he was always in touch with James Reveley. As things started to get serious, he was in contention and took things up with two flights left to jump. Going up to the last he showed a good turn of foot to power into a large lead and was unchallenged at the last, to win in the end by 15 lengths.
2) Date: 16th April; Track: Newbury; Selection; Klammer
A completely different profile for another notable, successful move now, with Jane Chapple-Hyam's two year old Klammer making his racecourse debut in a reasonably hot looking maiden at Newbury. Only one other horse had seen a track before. The market can obviously be a massive guide in this sort of contest, and on this particular morning in April Klammer was the one for us.
Put up at big prices in the morning, we were on board at 12/1. Support continued to come before the horse made it on course, and he opened on track at 7/1. Still the money came, and in the end he went off the 9/2 co-second favourite of three.
Klammer wasn't the smartest away in this five furlong race, and went notably right. Before long he was being pushed along and was seemingly struggling, backed at 30 in running. But in the closing stages we saw why the money had come all day, as he was switched and powered home, to get up by a head as the line approached.
Unfortunately, one of the other 9/2 shots was withdrawn at the start so the r4 meant that we only got 9/1 for our money. Still, a cracking performance to cap a notable, successful market move.
Klammer returned to Newbury last week to win a Group 3 over 7 furlongs. There was no question the stable knew this was a talented type back in April, and it was nice to be involved.
3) Date: 13th July; Track: Yarmouth; Selection: Yorgunnabelucky
Mark Johnstone's Yorgunnabelucky had actually been a selection the month before, in a race at Ripon. Quite nicely backed that day, the Giant's Causeway colt had drifted a little on track and finished fourth of nine.
At Yarmouth though, less than a month later, the money really came. We were on board when the price hit 11/2 and the selection opened on track at 4/1. Still the cash poured on and he ended up starting at 5/2 second favourite.
The selection was pushed into the lead early on for this ten furlong contest, and was rousted along to stay there. When he was joined a furlong from home it looked like he may have been in some trouble, but then he kicked on again to be well in command by the finish by two and a half lengths.
A selection which more than halved in price, and then did the business in good style.
All in all, three highlights from this year, although there have been many more similar. We're really looking forward to unearthing plenty more in the months ahead.
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
We continue our look back at notable days/results/goings on from 2010 today, with three of the biggest market moves which landed. There have obviously been quite a few of these this year, but these are some of the key ones.
1) Date: 19th March; Track: Fakenham; Selection: Bromhead.
Bromhead, a four year old hurdler, headed to Fakenham for a selling handicap hurdle, looking for his first win since landing a maiden on the all weather at Lingfield in January the previous year. He had been given a mark of 84 and was having his first crack at a handicap, and only his second race since joining Kevin Morgan.
Clearly there was a good deal of confidence behind this move into handicap company, as he was the subject of a good move in the morning, and was put up as a 2pt selection at 9/1.
Bromhead opened on track at 7/1 and that's when the money really came. Backed as if losing was out of the question, he shortened right down to 10/3 before post time.
The race itself was a straight forward affair. Racing a good deal of the race in midfield, he was always in touch with James Reveley. As things started to get serious, he was in contention and took things up with two flights left to jump. Going up to the last he showed a good turn of foot to power into a large lead and was unchallenged at the last, to win in the end by 15 lengths.
2) Date: 16th April; Track: Newbury; Selection; Klammer
A completely different profile for another notable, successful move now, with Jane Chapple-Hyam's two year old Klammer making his racecourse debut in a reasonably hot looking maiden at Newbury. Only one other horse had seen a track before. The market can obviously be a massive guide in this sort of contest, and on this particular morning in April Klammer was the one for us.
Put up at big prices in the morning, we were on board at 12/1. Support continued to come before the horse made it on course, and he opened on track at 7/1. Still the money came, and in the end he went off the 9/2 co-second favourite of three.
Klammer wasn't the smartest away in this five furlong race, and went notably right. Before long he was being pushed along and was seemingly struggling, backed at 30 in running. But in the closing stages we saw why the money had come all day, as he was switched and powered home, to get up by a head as the line approached.
Unfortunately, one of the other 9/2 shots was withdrawn at the start so the r4 meant that we only got 9/1 for our money. Still, a cracking performance to cap a notable, successful market move.
Klammer returned to Newbury last week to win a Group 3 over 7 furlongs. There was no question the stable knew this was a talented type back in April, and it was nice to be involved.
3) Date: 13th July; Track: Yarmouth; Selection: Yorgunnabelucky
Mark Johnstone's Yorgunnabelucky had actually been a selection the month before, in a race at Ripon. Quite nicely backed that day, the Giant's Causeway colt had drifted a little on track and finished fourth of nine.
At Yarmouth though, less than a month later, the money really came. We were on board when the price hit 11/2 and the selection opened on track at 4/1. Still the cash poured on and he ended up starting at 5/2 second favourite.
The selection was pushed into the lead early on for this ten furlong contest, and was rousted along to stay there. When he was joined a furlong from home it looked like he may have been in some trouble, but then he kicked on again to be well in command by the finish by two and a half lengths.
A selection which more than halved in price, and then did the business in good style.
All in all, three highlights from this year, although there have been many more similar. We're really looking forward to unearthing plenty more in the months ahead.
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Tuesday, 26 October 2010
Six days to go
We're getting closer to the start of the full service to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk.
We now go back to April as we continue our look back at some notable successes/results from 2010 already in the bag.
Today, the winner which hit the highest in-running price.
Emma Lavelle's good quality chaser Ouzbeck was the selection in a class two handicap at Cheltenham on April 14th.
The horse had appeared to lose his way a little, running unplaced in his last seven outings including over hurdles the last twice before this particular day. A solid mover in the morning, we backed him at 7/1, before watching as he drifted on track to go off 17/2. Not a great start, and when the race began he seemed to be really struggling to get to grips back over the big obstacles.
Not fluent at his fences, he was seemingly far too keen, and before too long was being scrubbed along. This cause the in-running layers to really get stuck in, and before you knew he was trading at 200.
This was a 3m 1f race though (his first try over such a lengthy distance) and there was still time for him to get back in the race. And get back in the race he did, on the last circuit he started to force his way into contention so much so that with around five fences left he was beginning to look a danger. Over the last, he took the lead and was driven out to win by 3/4 length.
A result which looked all but impossible minutes before had been chalked up, and with best odds guaranteed in play the returns were better than expected too.
Ouzbeck would go on to prove his staying credentials again later in the summer when landing the Summer National at Uttoxeter.
A day when the morning money was spot on, coupled with a horse who didn't know he was beaten, great stuff!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
We now go back to April as we continue our look back at some notable successes/results from 2010 already in the bag.
Today, the winner which hit the highest in-running price.
Emma Lavelle's good quality chaser Ouzbeck was the selection in a class two handicap at Cheltenham on April 14th.
The horse had appeared to lose his way a little, running unplaced in his last seven outings including over hurdles the last twice before this particular day. A solid mover in the morning, we backed him at 7/1, before watching as he drifted on track to go off 17/2. Not a great start, and when the race began he seemed to be really struggling to get to grips back over the big obstacles.
Not fluent at his fences, he was seemingly far too keen, and before too long was being scrubbed along. This cause the in-running layers to really get stuck in, and before you knew he was trading at 200.
This was a 3m 1f race though (his first try over such a lengthy distance) and there was still time for him to get back in the race. And get back in the race he did, on the last circuit he started to force his way into contention so much so that with around five fences left he was beginning to look a danger. Over the last, he took the lead and was driven out to win by 3/4 length.
A result which looked all but impossible minutes before had been chalked up, and with best odds guaranteed in play the returns were better than expected too.
Ouzbeck would go on to prove his staying credentials again later in the summer when landing the Summer National at Uttoxeter.
A day when the morning money was spot on, coupled with a horse who didn't know he was beaten, great stuff!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Monday, 25 October 2010
Seven days to go
Well this time next week we will be studying the markets ready to make our first selections! There is still time to join in at www.themarketexaminer.co.uk.
You may have seen that over the last few days we are building up to this by having a look back at notable events/days/results of 2010.
Today we'll just take a quick look at the amount of locked in value that we have seen over the course of the year. Basically, while we have had selections which drift on course to a bigger price than we backed - and gone onto win, the idea really is to get the value bets day in-day out, by trying to back at a price bigger than SP.
We all know just how accurate the SP market is for assessing the chances of any given runner, so if are able to get, most of the time, a bigger price than SP, then it should (and indeed does) follow that profits will inevitably follow. Not all the time, of course, but over a duration of time, the edge gained grinds out a good profit.
Anyway this year - we have advised, and backed at an average of 6.934/1.
Those horses have then gone off at an average of 6.335/1.
This may not seem a massive difference, but over the course of time, race in, race out, certainly good enough. It also a bit skewed by the odd selection or two which drift dramatically to a much bigger price. And of course morning money is often some of the shrewdist about, so a horse which has been backed in the morning and then drifts late on for some reason will very often run a fine race regardless. Later in the week we'll look back at one or two of these drfiters, focussing on those which have given the exchange layers a bit of a hard time!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
You may have seen that over the last few days we are building up to this by having a look back at notable events/days/results of 2010.
Today we'll just take a quick look at the amount of locked in value that we have seen over the course of the year. Basically, while we have had selections which drift on course to a bigger price than we backed - and gone onto win, the idea really is to get the value bets day in-day out, by trying to back at a price bigger than SP.
We all know just how accurate the SP market is for assessing the chances of any given runner, so if are able to get, most of the time, a bigger price than SP, then it should (and indeed does) follow that profits will inevitably follow. Not all the time, of course, but over a duration of time, the edge gained grinds out a good profit.
Anyway this year - we have advised, and backed at an average of 6.934/1.
Those horses have then gone off at an average of 6.335/1.
This may not seem a massive difference, but over the course of time, race in, race out, certainly good enough. It also a bit skewed by the odd selection or two which drift dramatically to a much bigger price. And of course morning money is often some of the shrewdist about, so a horse which has been backed in the morning and then drifts late on for some reason will very often run a fine race regardless. Later in the week we'll look back at one or two of these drfiters, focussing on those which have given the exchange layers a bit of a hard time!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Sunday, 24 October 2010
Eight days to go
A week tomorrow the service at http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/ will be officially launched with the first day of selections! We can't wait.
We continue our look back at notable days and results from 2010 today with a look back at our biggest priced advised winner of the year so far.
Spiritonthemount had had 25 runs before he headed to Bath on the day of 17th May, without success. The month before he'd been tried twice over hurdles without success, and had previously spent the year and a half before that racing over the all weather.
So when declared in this class six handicap at Bath, it was his first attempt on the level on turf since October 2008 (when he'd been tried over the same distance (2m1fur), and the same track as this particular day - only to come 7th of 8).
Priced up accordingly, Spiritonthemount was seen as a rank outsider, despite just the seven runners, but the support came early and we picked up on this being a live contender. Advised at 16/1, he would go on to be nicely backed into 10/1 by the time of the race.
William Carson kept him up with the pace for the first part of the contest but was under pressure early on. The in-running layers soon got stuck in and he appeared to be floundering at a high of 95 on Betfair. Going round the final bend he was put out wide and still under some pressure. But suddenly, a couple of furlongs out he began to pick up and stoutly stayed on in the closing stages to get up with about 100yards left of the race to record a brilliant victory.
A terrific, battling, game performance. On form alone it would have been very difficult to pick Spiritonthemount, but the money said a good deal and we were able to get a price which locked in the value. Then the horse did his job and the money was landed. The result really summed up how the market can be such an astute guide to a horse's chances, as long as you know what to look for.
In ten races since, Spiritonthemount hasn't won again, although last week came third in a maiden hurdle race at Worcester, hopefully he'll win again soon!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
We continue our look back at notable days and results from 2010 today with a look back at our biggest priced advised winner of the year so far.
Spiritonthemount had had 25 runs before he headed to Bath on the day of 17th May, without success. The month before he'd been tried twice over hurdles without success, and had previously spent the year and a half before that racing over the all weather.
So when declared in this class six handicap at Bath, it was his first attempt on the level on turf since October 2008 (when he'd been tried over the same distance (2m1fur), and the same track as this particular day - only to come 7th of 8).
Priced up accordingly, Spiritonthemount was seen as a rank outsider, despite just the seven runners, but the support came early and we picked up on this being a live contender. Advised at 16/1, he would go on to be nicely backed into 10/1 by the time of the race.
William Carson kept him up with the pace for the first part of the contest but was under pressure early on. The in-running layers soon got stuck in and he appeared to be floundering at a high of 95 on Betfair. Going round the final bend he was put out wide and still under some pressure. But suddenly, a couple of furlongs out he began to pick up and stoutly stayed on in the closing stages to get up with about 100yards left of the race to record a brilliant victory.
A terrific, battling, game performance. On form alone it would have been very difficult to pick Spiritonthemount, but the money said a good deal and we were able to get a price which locked in the value. Then the horse did his job and the money was landed. The result really summed up how the market can be such an astute guide to a horse's chances, as long as you know what to look for.
In ten races since, Spiritonthemount hasn't won again, although last week came third in a maiden hurdle race at Worcester, hopefully he'll win again soon!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Saturday, 23 October 2010
Nine days to go
We continue the build up to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk launching on November 1st with another look back at the year so far.
Today we look back at what was probably the most frustrating day of the year. Let's call it Saturday Seconds.
It was April 17th, and it was a busy day, with seven selections picked, a couple of them "double stakers" - the original term for 2pt win selections.
It started at Ayr when 9/2 shot Ascendent went off a nibbled into 4/1 but could only finish fourth.
Up next, Manifest was the pick in the 2.00 at Newbury, in the John Porter stakes. 15 went to post and our selection was backed at 11/2 in the morning. By off time he was a 9/2 shot, and went on to run a decent race but ran into one of the best horses of the year, Harbinger, who of course would go on to greater things including that incredible King George win.
Wvooka next up at Thirsk who didn't do a lot, but then it was the turn of Gloucester, back at Ayr for the Scottish Champion Hurdle. A 6/1 shot, he was travelling really nicely about three furlongs out and even reached 1.32 in running, but just couldn't pick up as expected and Overturn beat him into second.
We then moved on to our first 2pt win selection of the day. Nom de Guerre in the 3.45 at Bangor, who again ran a good race after being backed at 13/2, pushing the eventual winner two out before flattening out to finish second - the third of the day.
On to Doncaster and the 5.10, and the second 2pt selection. This was an unraced two year old maiden of Tom Dascombe's, Malpas Missile. Backd at 9/2 the market went on a crazy and unexpected drift and the horse went off at 12/1. Almost a fantastic return with best odds guaranteed in play, as he had every chance going into the final furlong, before finding very little. Yet another second.
A little wait until the 7.25 at Donaster, and Lady Artemisa. Backed at 4/1 she went off at 7/2 and ran a solid if unspectular race - to finish - you guessed it - second.
Each way muiltiples would no doubt have seen a reasonable return, but for us win only backers it was just a long hard day of what might have beens. Five second place finishes out of seven - at average odds of more than 5/1. Not a good day!
Will return to happier times with the next look back tomorrow!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Today we look back at what was probably the most frustrating day of the year. Let's call it Saturday Seconds.
It was April 17th, and it was a busy day, with seven selections picked, a couple of them "double stakers" - the original term for 2pt win selections.
It started at Ayr when 9/2 shot Ascendent went off a nibbled into 4/1 but could only finish fourth.
Up next, Manifest was the pick in the 2.00 at Newbury, in the John Porter stakes. 15 went to post and our selection was backed at 11/2 in the morning. By off time he was a 9/2 shot, and went on to run a decent race but ran into one of the best horses of the year, Harbinger, who of course would go on to greater things including that incredible King George win.
Wvooka next up at Thirsk who didn't do a lot, but then it was the turn of Gloucester, back at Ayr for the Scottish Champion Hurdle. A 6/1 shot, he was travelling really nicely about three furlongs out and even reached 1.32 in running, but just couldn't pick up as expected and Overturn beat him into second.
We then moved on to our first 2pt win selection of the day. Nom de Guerre in the 3.45 at Bangor, who again ran a good race after being backed at 13/2, pushing the eventual winner two out before flattening out to finish second - the third of the day.
On to Doncaster and the 5.10, and the second 2pt selection. This was an unraced two year old maiden of Tom Dascombe's, Malpas Missile. Backd at 9/2 the market went on a crazy and unexpected drift and the horse went off at 12/1. Almost a fantastic return with best odds guaranteed in play, as he had every chance going into the final furlong, before finding very little. Yet another second.
A little wait until the 7.25 at Donaster, and Lady Artemisa. Backed at 4/1 she went off at 7/2 and ran a solid if unspectular race - to finish - you guessed it - second.
Each way muiltiples would no doubt have seen a reasonable return, but for us win only backers it was just a long hard day of what might have beens. Five second place finishes out of seven - at average odds of more than 5/1. Not a good day!
Will return to happier times with the next look back tomorrow!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Friday, 22 October 2010
Ten days to go
We are building up to the official launch of http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/ with a look back at the year so far and picking out a few notable events.
We're not and will never be in the market of just pretending the pursuit of winning is one long walk in the park, so today we will look at the longest run of the year without a winner.
June this year was the month to forget, a horrible spell of poor performances and unlucky losers. The month had began pretty poorly, with 17 points lost before we had got even as far as June 10th. On the 9th, things had looked to be turning around with one winner, and a second place from the three selections.
But from June 10th, to halfway through June 17th, 23 selections were found and not a single one came in. Four of them finished second, with one trading at odds of approaching 1/2 in running, but that was the closest we came. To make matters worse, seven of these picks were 2pt wins, so it all resulted in a 30pt downswing.
Amethyst Dawn won at 8/1 to cheer the spirits a little on that June 17th and then Ralleigh Quay won at 7/1 the day later. But the damage for June was done and we could never recover, to leave us with the only losing month of the year.
A good reminder, though of the importance of a solid and resilient staking plan. It's why we recommend a 100pt bank, or even a 200pt bank if you really do want a relaxed ride.
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
We're not and will never be in the market of just pretending the pursuit of winning is one long walk in the park, so today we will look at the longest run of the year without a winner.
June this year was the month to forget, a horrible spell of poor performances and unlucky losers. The month had began pretty poorly, with 17 points lost before we had got even as far as June 10th. On the 9th, things had looked to be turning around with one winner, and a second place from the three selections.
But from June 10th, to halfway through June 17th, 23 selections were found and not a single one came in. Four of them finished second, with one trading at odds of approaching 1/2 in running, but that was the closest we came. To make matters worse, seven of these picks were 2pt wins, so it all resulted in a 30pt downswing.
Amethyst Dawn won at 8/1 to cheer the spirits a little on that June 17th and then Ralleigh Quay won at 7/1 the day later. But the damage for June was done and we could never recover, to leave us with the only losing month of the year.
A good reminder, though of the importance of a solid and resilient staking plan. It's why we recommend a 100pt bank, or even a 200pt bank if you really do want a relaxed ride.
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Thursday, 21 October 2010
Eleven days to go
So November 1st is drawing ever nearer!
To celebrate this, over the next few days, until launch date, each day we'll put up a stat or two, a notable result or something which (we think!) is interesting to do with http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/ and the results so far this year.
We'll start with a nice positive one, the biggest single return of the year so far.
It was a 2pt win at 12/1 on Beauchamp Viking, which ran in a handicap chase just over the minimum trip on the the evening of May 18th.
This was his 15th career race, and the 6 year old was still trying to get off the mark. He'd shown signs of improvement in a couple of races in the month before, though finished out of the frame on both occasions.
Today though the money was down in no uncertain terms, with the Simon Burrough trained gelding nicely backed all day to go off at 13/2.
He was held up at the back for the first part of the race, and reached a high of 30 in running before gradually working into things. Three out he was in the mix and went second with two flights left. Over the last he went into the lead, taking over from McCoy's mount, the even money favourite, Lord Gunnarslake. Though Beauchamp Viking wandered a bit, he was always in command and stayed on, driven out, to win by four lengths and secure a very nice win.
Since that particular day, he's raced three times since and not won again yet, but could well be one to look out for again when the money is down.
This selection hasn't been the biggest priced winner of the year so far, but by virtue of the 2pt win stake rather than the more typical 1pt win, the return was the biggest. It capped an excellent day actually, as his success was the third win from seven selections in all, very nice!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
To celebrate this, over the next few days, until launch date, each day we'll put up a stat or two, a notable result or something which (we think!) is interesting to do with http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/ and the results so far this year.
We'll start with a nice positive one, the biggest single return of the year so far.
It was a 2pt win at 12/1 on Beauchamp Viking, which ran in a handicap chase just over the minimum trip on the the evening of May 18th.
This was his 15th career race, and the 6 year old was still trying to get off the mark. He'd shown signs of improvement in a couple of races in the month before, though finished out of the frame on both occasions.
Today though the money was down in no uncertain terms, with the Simon Burrough trained gelding nicely backed all day to go off at 13/2.
He was held up at the back for the first part of the race, and reached a high of 30 in running before gradually working into things. Three out he was in the mix and went second with two flights left. Over the last he went into the lead, taking over from McCoy's mount, the even money favourite, Lord Gunnarslake. Though Beauchamp Viking wandered a bit, he was always in command and stayed on, driven out, to win by four lengths and secure a very nice win.
Since that particular day, he's raced three times since and not won again yet, but could well be one to look out for again when the money is down.
This selection hasn't been the biggest priced winner of the year so far, but by virtue of the 2pt win stake rather than the more typical 1pt win, the return was the biggest. It capped an excellent day actually, as his success was the third win from seven selections in all, very nice!
If you would like to join the service before we get going on November 1st please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/join-now
One month is £17.50; Three months is £50 (£16.66 a month); Six months is £90 (£15 a month); Twelve months is £160 (£13.33 a month).
Wednesday, 20 October 2010
Twelve days to go
In twelve days time, www.themarketexaminer.co.uk will be officially launched with selections.
It seems to have been an age since August 31st but with all this variable ground we've been having, and the seemingly mediocre results of other services just at the moment, our two month break in service seems to be justified. It has also been good to recharge the batteries a little!
We can't wait to get stuck in on from November 1st, there's still plenty of time to sign up.
All the best,
CD
It seems to have been an age since August 31st but with all this variable ground we've been having, and the seemingly mediocre results of other services just at the moment, our two month break in service seems to be justified. It has also been good to recharge the batteries a little!
We can't wait to get stuck in on from November 1st, there's still plenty of time to sign up.
All the best,
CD
Tuesday, 12 October 2010
Each-way analysis
Good afternoon,
Just to say we have now included each-way returns in our downloadable results section of www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/results.
Basically backing each selection at either 0.5pt e/w (1pt selections), or 1pt e/w (2pt selections) would have returned 84.57pts of profit (using morning prices). These obviously compare unfavourably with the early price win-only returns with bookmakers (162.85pt profit), but still interesting, and could offer a more stable environment for those anxious about inevitable losing runs backing at win only.
We are less than 20 days from the official launch now (November 1st), we can't wait to get stuck into the bookies once more. Subscriptions start from just £13.33 a month.
Thanks
CD (Sam)
Just to say we have now included each-way returns in our downloadable results section of www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/results.
Basically backing each selection at either 0.5pt e/w (1pt selections), or 1pt e/w (2pt selections) would have returned 84.57pts of profit (using morning prices). These obviously compare unfavourably with the early price win-only returns with bookmakers (162.85pt profit), but still interesting, and could offer a more stable environment for those anxious about inevitable losing runs backing at win only.
We are less than 20 days from the official launch now (November 1st), we can't wait to get stuck into the bookies once more. Subscriptions start from just £13.33 a month.
Thanks
CD (Sam)
Thursday, 7 October 2010
Updated results section
Good morning,
This is just to say we have updated with more information the results section on http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/results
You can also download a more detailed breakdown of results, including betfair SPs, in-running prices etc.
Interestingly, despite the service being geared around finding prices which are bigger than what they go off at at SP, returns at Betfair SP deliver a profit of 51.41pts (after 5% deductions).
Just 25 days to go until the service resumes, we can't wait.
This is just to say we have updated with more information the results section on http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/results
You can also download a more detailed breakdown of results, including betfair SPs, in-running prices etc.
Interestingly, despite the service being geared around finding prices which are bigger than what they go off at at SP, returns at Betfair SP deliver a profit of 51.41pts (after 5% deductions).
Just 25 days to go until the service resumes, we can't wait.
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