Four today

It's good luck to :

Prioryjo - in the 3.05 at Wetherby - 10-1 with Bet365

Sir Bathwick - in the 3.40 at Wetherby 11-2 with Stan James

Dawn Ride in the 4.45 at Wetherby - 8-1 with ToteSport

Munlochy Bay - in the 5.05 at Folkestone - 4-1 with Bet365

Three profitable betting days in a row, it looks like things are beginning to turn around again I'm pleased to say. Dawn Ride won really easily, but a shame Munlochy Bay couldn't quite win the last (beaten half a length) otherwise it would have been even better. Still, second places have been pretty much par for the course these last few weeks so quite immune to it!

Prioryjo, PU, 16-1 sp

Sir Bathwick, 3rd, 4-1

Dawn Ride, 1st, 6-1

Munlochy Bay, 2nd, 7-2

A passport to riches?

Got a new book in the post today.. David Myers' Racing Trends Revealed Flat 2009


Very interesting read, with 13 year trends for an incredible amount of flat races through the season. Good amount of stats in there, and just looking back at the first three races of the season in there, the Cammidge Trophy, Lincoln and Magnolia Stakes, it would have gone some way towards picking all three winners. Don't know if it'll prove profitable to follow in the months ahead but I do like my trends (certainly serves me well at Cheltenham normally) so I will give it a good go and see what happens. Will post the odd selection on here probably as well, although obviously they won't be my "proper" bets.

Nothing today

After two wins in two days, was looking forward to getting stuck in again today.

But sadly there's nothing doing.

Back again tomorrow!

Three for a sunny Sunday

What a lovely day today

Just managed to quickly get on and reveal today's selections..

Doncaster 2.00 - Wester Lodge 15/2 Coral
Kelso 2.40 - Lady Chaterlane 40/1 Will Hill
Doncaster 5.20 - Spring Goddess 7/1 Bet365

Despite my saying a few days ago that I wouldn't be swayed by price, to ignore the odd factor or two, have fallen victim of greed by doing Lady Chaterlane. She has been nicely backed though and can't risk seeing her go and win. At 40/1 would rather lose the £2.20 than have the sickening feeling of seeing her jumping the last eight clear without being on.

Anyway good luck to them all!

Another winning day, they're becoming a bit more frequent now I'm pleased to say! And a brilliant result too, with Spring Goddess winning the last at Doncaster after for some unknown reason (to me) drifting to 11/1 - good old best odds guaranteed, it really is a brilliant thing certain bookies offer.

Lady Chaterlaine ran a pretty decent race as well, judged by the distance she was beaten so not kicking myself about backing her as well.

Here's confirmation:

Wester Lodge - 6th, 8-1 sp
Lady Chaterlaine - 5th, 18-1
Spring Goddess - 1st, 11-1

2nd = £0

Just a quick one about the number of second places since I've had since the bank was at it's peak. I've had 14 second placed finishes (14.14% of selections in this time have finished 2nd ironically - 14 out of 99).

These have been priced at an average of 7.48/1.

Funny how even if just a couple of these had finished first (and I've had many beaten less than a length) the bank would be so much more healthy.

Quite reassuring to look at things like this every now and then, and not in a self pitying way but actually to bolster the belief that things will likely turn around for the best before too long.

Anyway off to bed - the damn clocks have just gone forward!

One last push for March

As we get closer to the end of the month, am on three today.

Sadly missed a point of a price with all these today because have been out helping the other half buy a new(ish) car in preperation for the new arrival!

Anyway am on:

Archipnko, in the 3.55 at Nad Al Sheba, 9/2 with Bet 365

Even Flo in the 4.55 at Uttoxeter - 5/1 with Bet Fred

Shinnecock Bay in the 5.10 at Lingfield, 4-1 with Tote Sport

Vauxhall Astra bought today for the wife - in three years time a Jag XKR convertible.. Well we'll see - it all starts today!

Ok a small step forward today I'm pleased to say, with Even Flo winning comfortably.

Archipenko, 6th, 7-2f

Even Flo, 1st, 11-4f

Shinecock Bay, Fell, 4-1f

Hopefully more of the same tomorrow. I don't think I'll be able to post selections before the off tomorrow but will try.

Let's get back on track with these

Three runners today all at Ascot.

Rory Boy in the 3.30 at Ascot, 9/2 with William Hill

Oscar Park in the 4.40 at Ascot 5/1 with Boyle Sports

To Arms in the 5.15 at Ascot, 9/2 with Sporting Bet

Good luck to them all!

Rory Boy and To Arms BOTH beaten a neck. What the hell is going on here.

At least the value was had again.

Rory Boy - 2nd - 10/3sp
Oscar Park - PU - 9/2
To Arms - 2nd - 7/2

Going to have to go some to make March a successful month particularly with the new reduced stakes.

A busy Thursday!

Am on:

Dawn At Sea, Hereford 2.35 , 25/1 with Bet365

Crank Hill, Towcester, 3.20, 8/1 with Will Hill

Jacks Lad, Hereford, 4.20, 4/1 Bet Fred

Lerida, Carlisle 5.20, 11/2 Bet365

All have been nicely backed. God knows where Dawn at Sea is getting her support from but hopefully she can repay it!

This is a truly hideous run, which will surely end soon. But it's incredibly frustrating seeing it play out.

Dawn at Sea, 5th, 22/1
Crank HIll, 3rd, 7-2 f
Jack's Lad 5th, 15-8f
Lerida, 6th, 6-1

Crank Hill ran quite well and was only beaten just over a length but that's not good enough.

I wonder if a lot of the recent selections are suffering endofseasonitis. I remember a similar appalling run around October when the turf flat drew to a close. Thank goodness the flat's starting again on Saturday, hopefully a few nice coups will be landed.

Will there be another winner today

Let's see if the fightback's begun, or remains delayed, with one or more of these two.

Infuriatingly I wasn't able to get on as early as I wanted to because of work so missed a point or two with the prices.

Anyway am on:

Mad Moose in the 3.00 at Taunton, 8-1 with Stan James

Flutter Bye in the 4.10 at Towcester, 6-1 with Bet365

No is the answer to the title...

Mad Moose, 2nd, 9-2 sp

Flutter Bye, 5th, 13-2

Three today

Aiming to bounce back with one or more of these, all backed with William Hill,

Physical Force - Sedgefield 16:00 9/1

Remainder - Sedgefield - 16.30 10/1

Fujin Dancer - Southwell - 17.10 7/1

Well a successful day!

Fujin Dancer winning the last very comfortably. Each of the selections again well backed again so nice to see the "value" was had. Remainder sounded a winner approaching the last but then dropped like a stone to finish fourth, a shame would have meant for an excellent day rather than just a good one!

Physical Force - UR - 11/2sp
Remainder - 4th - 13/2
Fujin Dancer - 1st - 4/1

Three today

Let's start the week with a winner or two with one or more of these:

Sarahs Gift, Plumpton 3.40 Bet365 4/1

Randwick Road, Kempton, 3.50, Will Hill 10/1

Arhurian, Plumpton 4.50, Paddy power 10/1

Still not happening...

Sarah's Gift, 3rd, 100-30sp

Randwick Road, PU, 6-1

Arhurian, 5th, 7-2

Poor old Randwick Road actually died after pulling up today, my condolances to connections.

Two selections today

So straight on with the new staking plan! (and by the way, the most recent peak was £109.92 so as soon as the bank goes back above this I will be increasing stakes again, or reducing stakes if the bank gets to less than £54.96).

Am on:

Wincanton 2.50 Kirbys Glen 11/2 William Hill
Huntingdon 4.40 Knock Boy 12/1 William Hill

Am feeling settled at my change of staking, and with my long term confidence unaffected in the system, I'm sure things will work out well. It just may take me longer to make very decent money but that's what comes with starting with just £150!

The poor run continues

Kirbys Glen, 4th, 3-1f
Knock Boy, 3rd, 5-1

Staking plan change of heart

Have had a change of heart with regard to my staking plan.

As mentioned previously, my ultimate staking plan is 2% of bank, without reducing stakes from the peak unless the bank gets to 50% of that peak. It then reverts to a new peak, and new stake as each new summit is reached.

I hadn't planned on bringing this in until the bank got to £1000 because of the reasonably small sums involved.

However I have now changed my mind about this. I don't actually want to put my "own money" at risk at a time when financially things are tight with the new baby due this summer.

From today therefore, I am backdating my staking plan allowing for this 50% reduction of stake.

If I had been doing that from day one, the bank would be now on £82.99. Here is the graph.



The current stakes are: £2.20. The bank is £43.97 more than my previous bank. This is the money I won at Cheltenham last week and is still deposited in various bookies accounts.

Some people may think it folly to change staking plans midway through, and it maybe is, but that's the way I'm doing it. If I had loads of spare dosh I wouldn't be anxious to see the losers continue to pile up. I haven't, so I am and I don't want to be worrying about things and playing with scared money, that's no fun at all (for me anyway!).

And apart from anything if ever anything was going to spark a run of winners it's reducing the stakes by almost a third!!

To back long odds or not to back long odds

That is the question.

And for this purpose I mean 11-1 or longer.

Have spent quite a lot of the evening looking back at all my records, and the results are a little inconclusive. As you'd expect they are less likely to win than the shorter priced selections but of course return a fair bit more.

In the last six months, it's shown that it would have been wise to leave them out. But in the twelve months before that, backing them did show a profit.

I think what I've been most guilty about is chosing a horse which isn't quite a system selection just on account of the large price. These are the runners which really do struggle. So I'm just going to be strict with myself. Don't get swayed by big odds over all else, and just back all horses in the same way regardless of price. I wouldn't ignore a factor or two to back a 4/1 shot so why should I about a 25/1 shot? Certainly I won't from now on after looking back at results.

Onwards and upwards - and I'm pleased to have the poker - I made all I lost today and a fair bit more in a session this evening. It's there if I need it, so will make the transfer to my bookies accounts if they need propping up.

It's all about the long term, there are peaks and troughs - as shown in the below graph which charts all the system selections I have on the computer, to level stakes (the percentage bank system goes off the wall and doesn't make for a very good graph).



At the end of the day my latest bank is only with 187 selections. At least a 1000 are needed I'd say before getting a true picture about whether things are going really well or not. It's just typical that a run like I'm on has to come in these relatively early days, and even more typical that it coincides with the start of this blog!

A hectic Saturday ahead

Well this could be total carnage, or it could be a dramatic return to winning ways. Let's hope it's the latter!!!

I'm on:

Stratford 14:25 Zelos, 12/1 Bet Fred

Stratford 14:55 Fontanesi, 13/2 Sky Bet

Haydock 15:15 Saunders Road, 4/1 Bet Fred

Bangor, 16:30 Rathcor, 8/1 Stan James

Stratford 16:35 Bali Bay, 5/1 Bet365

Haydock, 16.55, All For The Cause, , 8/1 Stan James

Carnage.

A few of these ran with some credit but none could get their heads in front. Check out the SPs, they were all backed all day, so lots of money lost. Things have got to turn soon, at least in the next few weeks.

Zelos, 3rd, 5-1

Fontanesi, 2nd 11-2

Saunders Road, PU, 5-2

Rathcor, 3rd, 4-1

Bali Bay, 6th, 7-2

All for the Cause, 5th, 4-1

Below is the graph with the staking plan I am currently using, with ratchet stakes betting at level stakes since it's highest peak. I am hoping this is about as bad as it gets.

A few weeks ago, I mentioned how that the staking plan I want to do, to avoid bust banks, was to reduce the stake by half when the bank gets to 50% of its peak, (and then reduce the stakes again should it get it to 50% of that etc). Because I am playing with relatively small stakes, I decided to let things run and hope they correct themselves without that being necessary. With that in mind, I am happy to invest another £150 into the betting bank, if necessary, (I have money currently in my Full Tilt poker account I can withdraw) and keep with the current stakes of £6.24 until that is bust (obviously hoping that doesn't happen). I have so much research and paper trading behind me that I am totally confident things will correct themselves eventually.

Interestingly, if I had just gone with level stakes from day one since beginning this betting bank, I would just be marginally under the amount I started with. This is that particularly graph.

Tonight I plan to do some research into horses backed over the price of 11-1. My latest research which I can get to relatively easily goes back to July 2007 so I will base my findings on that. I'll report back later with conclusions. Infuriatingly since July 2007 the longest losing run has been 30. Guess when that was - yep it ended last week! Before that we have to go back 18 months when a run of 27 losers was found. In the meantime, let's hope for a winner or two at some point soon!

One today

Let's end the week on a high with:

Sleepers Hill, in the 3.25 at Kelso, on at 8-1 with Stan James

By the way did some light research last night on the prices of my selections, it appears horses 11-1 or more have been under performing. Will do lots more work on this this weekend to see if those horses should be phased out, or perhaps done each way instead.


Well got the value, but despite the horse continuing to be backed into 5/1 he finished a very poor 8th. March has been a shocker of a month so far.

Could be a cracking day

.. if a couple of these come in.

Am on

Whispering Moor - Ayr 14.20 25/1 with Bet365

Dusty Dane - Ludlow 15:35 16/1 with Betfred

Oleolat - Ayr 17:00, 5/1 with Stan James

Beginning to approach the end of March and a fair few points to make up if I'm going to be at least level. In fact I think it appears likely that this month is going to be a losing one - but we'll see.

Well it would have been a cracking day, but as it turned out it was a rubbish day. None placed, and to make matters worse two of the selections drifted in price from when I backed them - now obviously I don't mind when they then go on to win(!) which does happen, but the fact is my system surrounds backing horses at prices bigger than what they should theoretically be (i.e the starting price). So yes not happy today, and very much looking forward to a nice streak of wins to get things back on track.

Whispering Moor - PU 22/1 SP
Dusty Dane - 5th 20/1 SP
Oleolat - 4th 7/1 SP

One selection today

Just the one runner later

Prince of Slane, in the 4.00 at Warwick, at 8/1 with Paddy Power.

He hasn't won for more than three years, but today that run will hopefully end.

Well the aim is to get the value, so that was achieved with an SP of 11/2

Sadly Prince of Slane wasn't entirely aware of what was expected of him, and finished third.

Decent enough performance though.

Two runners today

Two selections today.

I know things will turn around soon but beginning to get impatient!

Diego Velasquez Kempton 14:30 - 12/1 Bet365

Spanish Conquest Kempton 16:50 - 5/1 Ladbrokes

Good luck to both of them.

Well Diego Velasquez was a distant 4th (sp 9/1)

But Spanish Conquest scoots home in 1st (sp 7/2)! I could sense a winner or two was around the corner. Hopefully things can continue tomorrow.

Two runners today

Quick update, as been very busy at work

I'm on Simply Blue - Taunton 3.50 - 4/1 with Ladbrokes

and

Armour Multiple - Taunton 3.50 - 33/1 with Bet365 (half stake as still don't like betting two in a single race but can't avoid the price)

Not happening today, with Simply Blue finishing just out of the frame at 3/1 SP

Armour Multiple finished 11th and last, at 40/1 SP.

An exceptionally busy Sunday

Lots of runners today being backed, a rush to get them all on!

It's good luck to:

13.40 Southwell - Italiano 12/1 Bet365 (guaranteed odds)

14.10 Southwell - Victor Daly 19/4 Sporting Bet

14.40 Southwell - Dunkelly Castle 4/1 Bet365 (guaranteed odds)

15.35 Carlisle - Ikemba 14/1 Bet365 (guaranteed odds)

16.10 Carlisle - Paco 4/1 Bet365 (guaranteed odds)

16.30 Fontwell - Isntshelovely 9/1 William Hill (guaranteed odds)

A day which could have been so different if Ikemba had managed to get up (beaten half a length in the end).

Thankfully Victor Daly won (got quite lucky actually) to show only a small loss for the day..

Italiano - UR - 12/1 SP

Victor Daly - 1st - 11/4 SP

Dunkelly Castle - 5th 7/2 SP

Ikemba - 2nd - 11/2 SP

Paco - 3rd - 10/3 SP

Isntshelovely - PU - 9/1 SP

Ending the week up

Just quickly to recap Cheltenham week, and what a week it was the best sporting theatre around! Punting wise it went pretty well considering the small stakes. Really liked the idea of having a few in each race, and when I finally got on the each way train on Thursday the returns improved (or at least became more regular).

Tuesday was a slight profit, Wednesday was a slight loss, Thursday was a great day and Friday was about level. Really can't complain, ending the week around £40 up.

Friday's three placed runners:

Nortonthorpe Lad 66-1 Return £8.75

The Midnight Club 22-1 £6.50

Baby Run 50-1 £6.75

And a winner in the last!

Oh Crick 11-1 £18

Can't wait for next year, and thanks to Paul Jones for helping me get some really nice priced selections/winners. Am surprised his email shortlist that he does doesn't seem to have been as successful. I must have got lucky interpreting his trends/ stats.

As for the "proper selections" another very poor week. There were no qualifiers on Friday or Saturday so at least that stemmed the flow of losers, although I know things will turn around for them soon!

Cheltenham Selections Day 4

First of all to mention the "away from Cheltenham" selections - both uplaced, the first sp at 28/1 and the second at 7/1. Absolutely hopeless

Anyway on to tomorrow's bets.

I'm just under £40 up for the week, so that's how much I'm staking to lose tomorrow. If I lose in every single race I'll be level which is great. Hopefully there'll be one or two returns though to give me a reasonable profit for the week, we'll see!

Triumph

Jumbo Rio 14-1 bluesq £1.50 each way

County Hurdle

Sesenta 28-1 stan james £0.75 each way

Farringdon 25-1 stan jamesl £0.75 each way

Nortonthorpe Lad 66-1 Sporting Bet £0.50 each way

Albert Bartlett

Picture in the Sky 80-1 Vcbet 0.50 each way

The Midnight Club 22-1 Stan James £1 each way

Thetwincamdrift 16-1 bet365 £1 each way 4 places

Alpha Ridge 8-1 bet365 £2 win

Diablo 150 - 1 Sporting Bet £0.50 each way

Gold Cup

Maddison Du Berlais 10/1 paddy power £3 win

Foxhunters

Amicelli 8-1 £1.50 win

Baby Run 50-1 stan james 0.50 each way

Chief Oscar 40-1 vcbet 0.50 each way

Ofarel D'Airy 25-1 stan james 0.50 each way

Proud Andees 50-1 vcbet 0.50 each way

Robbers Glen 33-1 vcbet 0.50 each way

You Do The Math 33-1 bet365 0.50 each way 4places

Martin Pipe

Penn da Benn 12-1 Paddy power £1.50 win

Big Eared Fran 9-2 bet365 £2 win

Hangover 14-1 totesport £1 each way 5 places

Little Shilling 16-1 paddy power £1 each way

Oscatello 25-1 paddy power £0.75 each way

Grand Annual

Valain 20-1 betfred 0.75 each way

Oh Crick 11-1 boyle sports £1.50 win

Poquelin 6-1 betfred £3 win

Pasco 10-1 paddy power £1.50 win

A really good day at Cheltenham

What a day, with a collection in every single race apart from the Ryanair, and 2 33-1 shot winners.

Big thanks to Paul Jones' book for steering me towards them.

Ended the day £39.54 up which considering my average stake was around the pathetic 50p/£1 mark is some going.

These are the successes:

Jewson:

£1 win Chapoturgeon (1st) - 8/1 guaranteed odds with vcbet
50p each way Crescent Island (3rd) - 40/1 -with bet365

Pertemps Final

50p each way Kayf Aramis (1st) - 33/1 Paddy Power

Stayers Hurdle

£1 each way Powerstation (3rd) 33-1 bet365

Festival Plate

50p each way Something Wells (1st) 33-1 ladbrokes

Kim Muir

50p each way Pretty Star (2nd) 25/1

Would have had a bit more had VCbet paid out on 5th place in the Freddie Williams race, with Cossack Dancer running really well at 100/1

Roll on tomorrow!

What a day so far - more on Punchestowns

A brilliant day so far, with winners in the first two races including Kayf Aramis at 33/1. Also had 40/1 each way Crescent Island in the first.

I've put another fiver on Punchestowns at 7/2 because of it.

A bit more on Punchestowns

Because of the non-runner of Borora (shame by the way), that stake goes on Punchestowns to win.

Away from Cheltenham... Day 3

My non-Cheltenham bets have been hopeless these last couple of days.

We plough on though with:

Hexham 4.15 Ethel Briggs, 20/1 Bet365
Hexham 5.25 Rexmehead, 7/1 William Hill

Good luck all

Cheltenham Selections Day 3

After two days hard graft I am £2.64 down on all my Cheltenham bets. With only two days of the festival left, while still keen to observe my rule of losing a maximum of £50 over the four days, I am deciding to loosen up a bit.

I have therefore allowed myself just over £23 for each of these next two days. Obviously I'd like to think I'll collect a few quid back and break into profit, but am quite pleased with the discipline I've shown. I'm bringing in each way punts into the equation after all my big priced placed runners of the last couple of days.

These are my selections for Thursday. I have an extra £5 thanks to the excellent beat victor competition on vcbet, which I will use as a win single on punchestowns (which by the way I think is an oustanding price at more than 3/1). In fact I'm taking on the two hot fancies, as I think Kasbah and Voy Por are both a tad too short.

Anyway here goes:

Jewson 1.30

Chapoturgeon 15/2 vcbet £1 win

Crescent Island 40/1 bet365 50p each way

Astrador 22/1 paddy power 50p each way

Auroras Encore 28/1 Bet365 50p each way

Pertemps Final 2.05

P'Tit Fute 12/1 Ladbrokes £1 win

Synchronised 10/1 Bet365 £1 win

Kayf Aramis 33/1 Paddy Power 50p each way

Ryanair 2.40

Tidal Bay 7/1 Stan James £2 win

Our Vic 15/2 stan james £1 win

Stayers Hurdle 3.20

PUNCHESTOWN 7-2 will hill £3.50 win (£5 win vcbet free bet)

Powerstation 33-1 bet365 £1 each way

Festival Plate 4.00

Akilak 22/1 paddy power 50p each way

Something Wells 33-1 ladbrokes 50p each way

Le Burf 33-1 bet365 50p each way

Cossack Dancer 80/1 vcbet 25p each way

Borara 80/1 sportingbet 25p each way

Kim Muir 4.40

Irish Raptor 25/1 bet365 50p each way

Le Duc 25/1 bet365 50p each way

Brooklyn Breeze 40/1 vcbet 30p each way

Warpath 50/1 stan james 25p each way

Alexanderthegreat 12/1 paddy power £1 win

Pretty Star 25/1 paddy power 50p each way

Good luck all

Tough day

Thoroughly enjoyed the day's racing in front of the telly but it wasn't particularly profitable, thankfully Well Chief did well on his belated return to give me something back. Had a string of big priced seconds, including Horner Woods in the RSA at 66/1, Mirage Dore in the Coral Cup at 16s and then the 2-3-4-5-6 in the Fred Winter (with 20/1 2nd and 3rds). Hey ho.

As for the "proper" selections another three losers.

Petrovka came 5th at 14/1 sp
Dan Tucker came 8th at 5/1

Janet's delight came 6th at 15/2.

This run will end soon I'm sure!

Champion Chase

Have done a little interest bet in the Champion Chase.

Well Chief at 9/2 with Stan James without the favourite, to win £7.50, stake - £1.66

One for the bumper

Have done Meath All Star at 16-1 with Bet365 to win £7.50

Away from Cheltenham...Day 2

On with the "proper selections" then.

I very very rarely back two horses in the same race but in the 1.45 at Huntingdon I feel compelled to because of the big odds associated with the second horse.

Here are today's runners:

Huntingon 1.45 - Dan Tucker - 9-2 - Totesport
Huntingdon 1.45 - Petrovka - 17.03 - Betfair

Huntingdon 2.20 - Janet's Delight - 8-1 - Bet365

I feel this poor run's going to end soon and when it does the winnings will be dramatic, hopefully it'll be today.

Cheltenham selections Day 2

Ok after a successful first day let's crack on with these: As yesterday all staked with the intention/aim of winning £7.50 per race.

National Hunt Chase

Can't Buy Time 9-2 bet365 £2.71 win single (as is all the following)

Coe 9-1 bet365 1.49

Forest Leaves 10-1 bet365 1.36

Pangbourne 40-1 william hill 0.36

Wichita Lineman 9-1 sporting bet/ladbrokes 1.49

Ballymore Properties

Diamond Harry 9-2 paddy power £1.92

Junior 40-1 bet365 0.26

Knockkara Beau 20-1 bet365 0.50

Realt Dubh 28-1 stan james 0.36

RSA Chase

Casey Jones 14-1 stan james 0.60

Horner Woods 66-1 bet365 0.13

Killyglen 12-1 bet36 0.69

Champion Chase

No selection

Coral Cup

Mirage Dore 16-1 bet365 0.53

Great Endeavour 12-1 bet365 0.70

Gee Dee Nen 14-1 sportingbet 0.61

Fred Winter

Mr Thriller 14-1 paddy power 1.03

Simarian 40-1 ladbrokes 0.38

Saticon 20-1 bet365 0.73

Ski Sunday 20-1 paddy power 0.73

Ronaldo Des Mottes 12-1 paddy power 1.18

Giorgio Quercus 33-1 stan james 0.45

Alexander Severus 5-1 bet365 2.57

Indian Groom 33-1 bet365 0.45

Helium 40-1 ladbrokes 0.38

Today's results

Well the Cheltenham bets resulted in a profit!

Forpaddydeplasterer and Wichita Lineman doing the business today really well. Had another £1.02 on Wichita as well thanks to the bet365 offer of the channel 4 free bet next race thing.

Otherwise had a couple of seconds (Celestial Halo and United) as well. Nearly all my selections come from careful study of Paul Jones' excellent Cheltenham trends book, highly recommended.

In the end I'm up exactly £7! I do appreciate by the way this is a pathetic amount, but I'm just trying not to spend with the baby coming. It'll probably mean I have a good few winners and by Friday PM will be wishing I had done my usual decent punts but that's sods law for you!

As for the other "proper" bets, I am up to 24 losers in a row - a record and a quite sickening run.

Bulas Boy was backed into 15/2 before unseating before the second fence(!!!!!!! is this run of ridiculous early mishaps going to end soon?!)

And Sands Rising went off at 22/1 before running a reasonable race to come 4th.

Just about to get stuck into studying for tomorrow, will post my selections either tonight or in the morning.

Away from Cheltenham...

Ironically my biggest bets of the day are at Sedgefield.

Sedgefield 2.55 Bulas Boy 16/1 Boylesports
Sedgefield 4.15 - Sands Rising - 22/1 Betfred

Just about to leave for Cheltenham - good luck to all

Cheltenham selections Day 1

Ok for what it's worth here are my selections. Because I am on such a tight budget at the moment until the little one comes along I am limiting my losses to £50 for the next four days.

My aim is to make £7.50 per race, by dutching my bets on all my selections in each race. Obviously this isn't the quickest way to riches but just want good steady progress through the week (or at least see if it's possible!). Because I put these on last night I decided to only use bookies with guaranteed best odds, in case any of these drift like mad. I will miss getting involved in the jungle of the betting ring with decent cash, but it will have to wait until next year.

In recent years I've had pretty good success at Cheltenham. Captain Cee Bee won me £330 for a tenner at 33-1 antepost before in the Supreme Novice last year, while when Parlashan got up to win one of the big handicaps (forget which one) the year before it secured a nice exacta paying about £300. Anyway not such big ambitions this year, little and often all the way!

Supreme Novice

Kempes - 10-1 - bet365 - £1.10

Torpichen - 11-2 - bet365 £1.86

Aachen 16-1 - bet365 £0.71

Red Maloney 12-1 paddy power £0.93

total staked: 4.61

Arkle

Forpaddydeplaster 10-1 - bet365 - £1.02

Made in Taipan 25-1 - bet365 - £0.43

Tatenan 4-1 - bet365 - £2.24

total staked: £3.69

Will Hill Chase

Cailinn Alainn 12-1 bet365 £0.83

Possol 9-1 paddy power £1.08

Wichita Lineman 7-1 paddy power £1.35

Total staked : £3.26

Champion Hurdle

Ashkazar 20-1 - bet365 0.36

Celestial Halo 9-1 stan james 0.75

Ebazayan 66-1 bet365 0.11

Binocular 15-8 paddy power 4.00

Sentry Duty 28-1 paddy power 0.26

Jered 33-1 - bet365 0.22

Total staked £5.70

Cross Country

L'Ami 9-4 bet365

Garde Champetre 7-2 paddy power

Haven't worked out what to do with these two as I don't think there's much value on either so may just leave that race.

The Mares Hurdle

Dansimar 22-1 bet365 0.47

United 9-2 paddy power 1.98

Gaspara 22-1 bet365 0.47

Sweetheart 28-1 bet365 0.38

Gallileo Figaro 150-1 stan james 0.10

Total staked: £3.40

Anyway good luck all, will post my usual "proper" selections later.

Three very poor runs - not what's needed on the eve of Cheltenham!

Taunton 2.20 Rock Exhibition PU - 4-1 sp
Plumpton 3.30 Mr Prickle 6th 8-1 sp
Taunton 4.20 Winchester Red 5th 8-1 sp

Had an excellent session earlier form studying for tomorow. Will post my selections either later or in the morning. Am going tomorrow, and Friday and going to enjoy the other days in front of the telly - can't wait!

Three selections today

Would be good to get a confidence booster from one of these ahead of Cheltenham tomorrow!

I'm on:

Taunton 2.20 Rock Exhibition 6-1 Bet365
Plumpton 3.30 Mr Prickle 8-1 Totesport
Taunton 4.20 Winchester Red 15-2 Sporting Bet

Good luck to them all, I just hope they all get past the first fence.

That was a week to forget

Well it's Monday, which means the start of a new week thank goodness.

Yesterday's selection ran a bit of a stinker to come 5th (SP 9/2) , will be looking to turn things around soon!

One runner today

Well no selection yesterday, which seems strange with the amount of racing on but that's what happened.

Today just the one as well:

3.15 Market Rasen; Thistlecraft - 9/1 with Bet365. I should have had 10/1 with Coral but their pathetic deposit system kept crashing and I didn't have time to phone to chase them up.

At least that means the horse is almost certain to win!

Today's selections

Am late in putting these up today, in fact both selections have now run.

And sadly both were beaten, including ANOTHER falling at the first fence!!!!!!

Anyway they were:

Leicester 3.05 - Sarah's Gift, 9/2 with William Hill (SP 5/1) FELL
Leicester 4.15 - Gun's of Love, 6/1 with Stan James (SP 5/1) 5th

Not a happy month so far, but at least there're plenty more days in it left!

What the hell is going on

Ok so this week I have had an 8-1 shot fall when clear two out.

Two horses fall or unseat at the very first fence..

And then today. The Maystone is beaten in the very last stride, in a photo, at 20/1. Not seen the race but every indication on the commentary was that he had it in the bag until the last moment. (SP16-1)

Racing Gods - what are you doing to me?!!

The other ran no sort of race. (SP16-1)

Signing off, pretty sick at the moment, but will be back again tomorrow.

Two huge priced selections

Now these two would give the bank a nice boost! Cannot really see why either are being punted, but still good luck to them.

3.35 Wincanton - Baby Car - 16-1 with Bet365
4.20 Carlisle - The Maystone - 20-1 with Paddy Power.

As ever both £6.24 win singles. At these sort of prices it's always quite tempting to do them each way but my research has found it's far more profitable to go for win only.

Unseating at the first

So two selections this week have fallen or unseated at the very first fence, that's pretty rough, the latest today.

Today's results:

Fontwell 4.00 - Le Briar Soul - UR - 5/2f SP

It was heavily punted all day, so the value was had again, although it does help if the selection races for more than 45 seconds...

One for today

Good luck to this one!

Fontwell 16..00 - Le Briar Soul - 4/1 with Bet365

A day to forget

Well when you're backing horses at double digit prices you obviously don't expect to win with them all, but still it was a pretty poor showing by the selections today. Just beginning to turn into another nasty little run so hopefully things will turn around soon.

Anyway here are the results:

Newcastle 2.50 - Tuatara Bay 8th - 10-1 SP

Exeter 3.00 Somerset Rose - PU - 16-1 SP

Exeter 5.00 Dreams Jewel - 4th - 6-1 SP

It's just occurred to me that this time next week we'll be looking back to day one of Cheltenham. It's almost here - can't wait!

Three today

Three today, all with decent prices.

Newcastle 2.50 - Tuatara Bay 10-1 - with Sporting Bet

Exeter 3.00 - Somerset Rose - 25-1 with Bet365 (best odds guaranteed)

Exeter 5.00 Dreams Jewel - 10-1 with William Hill (best odds guaranteed)

"Would have romped home but for falling two out"

Or to give the full quote:

Risk would have romped home but for falling two out when ten lengths clear. (Today's Racing Post).

That set the context of the day sadly, with no winners today. In fact it was a bad day "value" wise, how the hell Risk was allowed to drift to 8-1 before running really well I'll never know, there was obviously a late move for something else. Later we had a faller at the first and a well fancied sort beaten less than a length into third.

Anyway here are the results:

Stratford 3.00 - Risk - Fell - 8-1 SP

Stratford 4.00 - Farmers Cross - Fell (at the first) 10-1 SP

Stratford 4.30 - Captivate - 11th - 33-1 SP

Stratford 5.00 - Rash Moment - 3rd 3-1F SP

A busy day

Sometimes I don't like days like today, with four selections in rapid fire, all at the same track. I don't know why, it just feels awkward.

Anyway, these are today's selections none the less:

Stratford 3.00 - Risk - 7-2 with Paddy Power

Stratford 4.00 - Farmers Cross - 8-1 with Sporting Bet

Stratford 4.30 - Captivate - 28-1 with Sporting Bet

Stratford 5.00 - Rash Moment - 5-1 with Bet365

As ever (until the bank reaches a new high) all win singles of £6.24.

Good luck to them all, particularly Captivate -now that would boost the bank!

February a winning month

But not by a lot!

The three selections were all beaten yesterday sadly.

2.20 at Kempton - Double Obsession - 3rd - SP 13-2

2.50 at Kempton - Hello My Lovely - 4th - SP 6-1

3.45 at Newbury - Procas De Thaix - 4th - SP 7-2

So again I had the value on each of the selections, but not a winner in sight unfortunately.

No runners today (Sunday), so roll on tomorrow!