Roy Hodgson??

Roy Hodgson for next England manager? He seems a decent man but it's got to be Harry hasn't it? Everyone seems to be writing off Redknapp's chances with the news the FA are speaking to Hodgson, but surely the FA won't just speak to one man. I've got a little bit of 4.2 on Betfair about Harry tonight and I reckon there are worse 3/1 shots around.* (Edited to add late Sunday night - just topped up at 6.2! - maybe somebody on there knows something...)

Mind you, it is the FA we're talking about here..

Hope you've managed to stay dry these last few days, what miserable weather. Our results since Thursday haven't been good either, just the four picks, but not one placed and all rather bleak. Plenty of support about for one or two of them though, and they just might reward that confidence in their next race or two.

Since last Monday it's been a quiet but profitable week, with two winners from our eleven selections. Treehouse (13/2) and Sotovik (5/1) did the business for us.

April as a whole has been hit by all too many abandonments, and of course this awful weather, which must be a nightmare for the jumpers who've been readied for a hit around this time but now hampered by the wrong ground. We're a little bit down for the month, with one meeting to go (assuming Windsor is on tomorrow night), which is disappointing given we were bowling along quite nicely in the first half of the month. It's been quite a while since our last massively profitable month, and it's just a matter of time before it comes again.

It's not always easy to think long-term in this game, and playing (what we think are) value bets at big odds (we're averaging 8.1/1 this year so far) is always going to play havoc with variance, but we're due a good run. We're beating SP by around 10% on average, and that edge will eventually see us through.

Variance in results can yield good, bad, or indifferent results, but in the long run if you have an edge you should be fine. It's something poker players talk about a lot - and for those starting to get a little impatient, James Atkin's blog post "the positive side of variance!" offers some encouragement -http://www.atkinator.net/2012/04/positive-side-of-variance.htm.

He writes:

Variance is a funny thing. I went through 4 or 5 months of what seemed like continuous pain with no sign of reprieve. But apparently I've paid my dues, and I'm running really well recently. Overall I'm probably running to expectation, it just took 6 or 7 months to even itself out.

That is why getting frustrated with the short term in poker is so futile. Don't get me wrong, I get annoyed with the short term plenty (as you'll know if you read this blog regularly!), it's just generally a waste of energy.

The graph below shows the extremity of what I'm talking about. Okay, this graph includes all the turbo MTTs I have played (as well as SNGs) which are naturally high variance, and doesn't show rakeback, but still...

epitomised, All Games, PokerStars, Last 6 Months

It's very possible that I'm playing a whole lot better now than I was during the bad patch, as I really think success breeds confidence in poker. Obviously thought I'm not playing that much better, I'm just running hot as well.

Now that is one graph we certainly wouldn't mind seeing repeated over here sometime soon!

Ewan Whillans

Just a quick note to pay a small tribute to Ewan Whillans tonight ensuring a winner from our only selection today, Sotovik in the feature race at Perth (SP 5/1).

Looking beaten coming to the last he never gave up on him, switched him towards the near rail and got him up to win by a neck. Plenty of other jocks would have been tempted to down tools but now Ewan. Well done to him and connections for landing a nice price.

Catch Up

We've not been having the best of it just lately, I think that's fair to say. As with most poor runs, we can look at a number of selections trading short in running before not finishing the job off, but such is life.

We had Seabass (12/1 adv - 8/1sp) in the National, who ran a fantastic race just didn't quite have the legs as they went to the elbow, but what a lovely ride from Katie. It was so sad to hear of the two fatalities and on a wider level just awful news for the sport, with racing again having to defend itself because of this one brilliant, but at times tough-to-watch contest. Much has been written about the national's future and I daresay not a lot will change once the clamour for alterations dies down, but I was chatting to friends the other day and we were asking the question - if we jumped forward 50 years and found that - at some point in time - the race was scrapped - would we actually be surprised. The answer's got to be a no. With that in mind I do wonder if things should be tweaked to halt this process, and reducing the field-size might be the answer. But at the same time, it's such a spectacle, and such a contest..

Other notable runners over the past week and a bit, second placed finishes for Rosie's Lady (6/1 adv), McMurrough (7/1 adv), Robbie (6/1adv) and Besty (12/1 adv). These all went either odds on or around evens in running and not to get a winner from them was pretty frustrating to say the least. We also had Red Merlin on Saturday in the Scottish Champion Hurdle go to nearly 1/5 before flattening out in the last couple of hundred yards or so.

Such things are sent to test us, but we live to fight another day and hopefully our next big upturn of form has begun today, with Treehouse (13/2sp) running out a good winner at Hexham. Onwards and upwards!

All the best for now.

Sam and The Market Examiner team.

Grand National Market Analysis

The Market Examiner Grand National Pre-Race Market Analysis

Recently we at The Market Examiner explored whether market moves in the last few minutes before race-time at the Cheltenham festival were useful pointers towards a horse’s chance. Our main conclusion was that, yes, those horses which shortened in price in the final few minutes did outperform those others which stayed the same price, or drifted in price.

In particular, we found it would have been profitable to support, even blindly at SP, those horses running in handicap chases near the front of the market, which had shortened in price.

So would this trend transfer to the most famous handicap chase of them all – the Grand National?

First of all, here are some overall findings:

Of the 399 horses which have gone to post in the last ten Grand Nationals, 240 stayed the same price from opening show (60.2% of total) (many “touched” other prices, but if they settled at the opening show price, we count as stayed the same). 111 shortened in price (27.8% of total), and 48 drifted in price (12%).

First of all, it is quite notable just how many horses shortened, with more than one in four contracting in price. At the Cheltenham Festival over the last ten years, that figure is just over one in five (20.15%). We can perhaps put this down to the bookmakers running for cover from large liabilities from the millions of “once a year” shop punters, with reports of more than £250million staked in recent years. The National market, while mature, is liable to very big moves on the day of the race, showing that plenty of punters wait until race-day before getting their bets on. The most obvious example of this in recent years was the huge plunge on Don’t Push It in 2010 for JP McManus and ridden of course by Tony McCoy, backed down from 20/1 to 10/1f by off-time before winning comfortably.

So do the 111 horses which shortened outperform the others?

In a word, yes. While overall 27.8% of horses shortened, four of the last ten nationals (40%) have been won by a horse whose price had shortened. To extend this, of the 12% which drifted, one has won (10%) and of those 60.2% who stayed the same price, five won (50%).

So, while our sample size isn’t huge, we can see that horses which have shortened in price do outperform all other categories in relation to their numbers.

What further supports this notion, is the number of placed efforts. We have considered the front four to be places, although of course many bookies pay out on the front five these days.
40 horses have placed in the last ten years, this is made up of:

14 which shortened in the betting pre-race (35%)
21 which stayed the same price (52.5%)
5 which drifted in price (12.5%)

So again, of the 27.8% of horses which shortened from opening show, they made the frame more than their fair share. In the six years where a horse which didn’t shorten won the race – in each of those years a backed horse came second. That’s a strong trend, and is certainly something which we should be able to take advantage of as punters. But how?

Let’s break down those 111 horses which shortened in price.

The average SPs of all 111 was 28.23/1 – but the average SP of the winners was just 9.5/1. So, like our Cheltenham analysis, it looks like we should be concentrating at the front of the market.
If we look at horses which have been backed and start 14/1 or shorter we have:

43 Selections
Wins: 4 (9.3% strike rate)
Placed: 14 (35% - including the four winners) – of which SIX came second
Average odds: 9.85/1
Average Win Odds: 9.5/1
Running total to SP: -1pt

While backing them all to win at SP returns a very small loss, backing them each-way would have returned a small profit.  However, the bigger secret could be to grab a horse’s price (at 14/1 or less) when it is on the way down, thereby locking in some of that value, safe in the knowledge that you’ve backed a horse which, based on ten-year-trends - has a 23.26% chance of coming either first or second. Of course, if backing at SP, these days we have BSP as an alternative and it’s safe to assume that if BSP would have been around for all ten years, then this line would have been profitable at win-only (Don’t Push It, for example, was 17.83/1 at BSP compared to 10/1 at SP).

If we look at all other horses which have started 14/1 or shorter – but drifted from opening show the stats are:

9 Selections
Wins: 0
Placed: 2 (22.2%)
Average Odds: 12/1
Running Total to SP:  -9pts

And these are the horses which have started 14/1 or shorter, but stayed the same price:

16 Selections
Wins: 1 (6.3%)
Placed: 4 (25% including the winner)
Average Odds: 11.5/1
Average Win Odds 11/1
Running Total to SP: -4pts

We can see that, not surprisingly, most of the horses which start at 14/1 or shorter are those that have been backed – and those that are in this odds-range but haven’t been supported, perform poorly in relation to what we might otherwise expect considering their position in the market.

We hope this has been interest, and potentially useful. Best of luck with your National bets this year!

April Update

We've had a strong start to April so far, now +15.35pts (76.75% ROI).

A good winner today in the shape of Chilly Filly at Catterick (7/1sp), and it could have been better, as we also had Come On Dave at Nottingham (9/1sp) who traded shorter than 1/3 in running before fading late on.

It is traditionally a good time of year for us at the moment, and we're really hoping that we get the rub of the green which we're owed with a continuation of profits. While things have stuttered in the main this year, we're in profit for 2012, and we're confident we can really surge forward in the coming months.

Just to say as well, that with the National just around the corner, we've helped contribute to the Secret Betting Club Grand National Tips Profit Pack, which is a free download, and well worth a look if you've got a few minutes. In our section we looked at market moves close to post time in the National. You can get it here.

In the next day or two we'll post what we wrote on our blog anyway but for now you can have a look by clicking the above link and getting the download.

All the best

The Market Examiner team

Bank Holiday Bonanza

A good day today, with a couple of winners at 18/1 and 10/1 from our eight selections. No surprise really that we had a busy Monday with so many meetings on, but it always feels a bit daunting with the equivalent of two or three days rolled into one. Fortunately Oscar Baby, at Fakenham, and Our Phylli Vera, at Warwick, did the business in good style to ensure 13.5pts of profit on the day.

It would have been an even better Easter weekend altogether had Passato (9/1) held on at Exeter on Saturday, but sadly he was caught on the line.

April is nicely in profit by 12.35pts right now (+82.33% roi) and let's hope we can keep pushing on and build a big total through the month!

March Analysis

A good winner today in the shape of Earcomesthedream, in the 4.10 at Hereford. Unfortunately we couldn't see it as there were no pictures coming from course, but according to the RP website he ran out a pretty ready winner with the from two well clear of third. What was annoying is the hefty R4 that we had to put up with because of the withdrawal of a couple of runners prominent in the betting. Who's to say Peter Pritchard's 9yo wouldn't have won anyway, but still, never mind, 9/1, became 5.85/1 because of an average 35p R4 and we're pleased to get back to winning ways again and ensure April gets into profit early. 

Anyway, it's time now to look at March, which ended poorly with a frustrating losing run, to push the month into negative territory of -10.25pts, damn annoying, particularly as the stretch began just as things were looking looking like really getting going for us, with a 25/1 Cheltenham success, and a couple of other nice winners too. Then started a run where 11/24 made the frame (at an average price of 7.29/1) but not a single one got their head in front. This would have been a profitable month, as has been the case for 2012 as a whole, had we been advising each-way, and it's something of a stern test of our win-only resolve. We know that many of our subscribers do prefer to back each-way, and we can't really blame them, but we've just too much evidence to suggest win-only provides better long-term returns to make us waiver on this - although it does play havoc with variance in results. How ironic that our biggest winner since proofing results began, Son Of Flika, was the only selection we've ever advised each-way.. Some things are sent to test us!

These are the stats:

Bets: 57
Wins: 5 (8.77%)
2nds: 6 (10.53%)
3rds: 9 (15.8%)
Placed total: 20 (35.1%)
Average odds taken: 8.36/1
Average SP: 7.51/1
Average win odds: 8.38/1
Profit/Loss: -10.25pts
Return On Investment: -21.67%

Interestingly, March 2011 saw a losing run of 27 - but that month ended with 59pts of profit with an ROI of +79.73%. That shows that losing runs can be shrugged off if results elsewhere more than make up for them, and it was tough for ours to come at a time without a large cushion already built up. Looking at the positives, and we again strongly beat SP against average odds taken ten minutes after selections were issued, by nearly 1pt per pick which is hugely important and shows we're still very much on the right track despite the results that came. Our placed total again was solid, although not as high as through January and February. Also, to have a win strike rate of just 8.77% for the month, but to actually only be down by just over 10pts is, actually quite pleasing. This is our third lowest win strike-rate since January 1st 2010, and the other two that were lower we took very severe damage, so this has to be something of a positive (although not much of one we admit!!!).Let's see what April brings, we are certainly long overdue a huge upswing in results, and let's hope it's just around the corner. From that point of view, it may well be a good time to join us! Maybe today's heralded the start of that push upwards, let's hope so.

Weekly Update

A frustrating week, and fairly quiet, with just seven selections, and we went close to ending the month strongly, with Drummers Drumming (10/1 available ten minutes after selections issued) headed close to the line at Hereford on Tuesday after going 1.07 in running, and then on Saturday, Themanfromfraam (5/1) storming home to go down by a neck at Stratford.

Yesterday when we issued Themanfromfraam it was clear that March was going to be a losing month. Some other services have something of a reputation for trying to salvage losing months in the last few days by upping the number of selections, but we don't care about monthly totals (although we will be issuing our March review shortly) so would never do such a thing. It's all about the long-term as our subscribers probably get tired of us saying!

You may have noticed that we have eased off our daily reports on the blog in terms of result updates. These continue for subscribers, emailed directly to them. This blog will continue to be updated as and when we have interesting updates to report, at least on a weekly basis but generally more often. We have our reasons for this, and believe this a positive move to protect our subscribers' interests. We have also begun a newsletter distribution and if you wish to be on this list (it's naturally completely free), please go to www.themarketexaminer.co.uk and look out for the tab on the left hand side and supply an email address.

It was great to see the flat back yesterday, and with the bigger fields and competitive racing we look forward to plenty of opportunities ahead for us to get stuck in in the weeks and months ahead!

Weekend Update

A fairly quiet weekend, after the comparative rush of selections seen from Wednesday to Friday, and despite some decent efforts unfortunately no returns for us win-only backers.

Let's start on Saturday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.05 Kelso Pyjama Game 1pt 8/1+ generally inc. 9/1 Coral

The second time we've had Pyjama Game as a selection this year, and another placed effort. Things looked promising as he closed on the leader but his run flattened out and he had to make do with third, after going off at 9/1. Safe to say it was fairly frustrating to see Scotswell, who came third for us last week, run out a pretty comfortable winner on his first start since.

On to today, and we had two:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.10 Hexham Bandanaman 1pt 7/1+generally inc.15/2 Bet365 8/1 Totesport
4.40 Hexham Oh Right 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Stan James/Boyles 11/1 Bet365

Bandanaman went off at 11/2 and ran well enough for a good while, but the winner had skipped clear and a mistake at the last didn't help, and he faded out of the frame.

Oh Right put in a strong performance an hour and a half later, after going off at 8/1. He jumped the last in front, but was unfortunately hauled in by the favourite close to home, going down by less than two lengths.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday 24th March 2012

Pyjama Game, 3rd/13, 8/1 --- 8/1

Sunday 25th March 2012

Bandanaman, 4th/6, 15/2 --- 11/2

Oh Right, 2nd/9, 9/1 --- 8/1

Since our last winner on Tuesday we've had 41.2% get placed, which is of little comfort to those of us backing to win, but at least they've generally speaking been running ok. We've also been beating SP with an average of 7.76/1 advised price, to 6.74/1 SP.

Let's hope we get our compensation in the days ahead!

Reminder

So on Tuesday night we were writing how things were turning for the better, and how it was "hopefully the start of a long overdue sweep back towards strongly building on earlier profits."

Well three days on and a reminder that there's no getting carried away in this game, with eleven points dropped. Clutching at positives, we've got the price with the majority of our selections, and most have been there pitching when the action got serious, but still, a highly frustrating three days. Tomorrow's another day and it can all change very quickly - and for the better.

Let's start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

3.00 Carlisle Prince Blackthorn 0.5pt 8/1+ generally inc. 17/2 Hills 9/1 Totesport
4.20 Chepstow Henry Hook 0.5pt 6/1 generally
4.20 Chepstow Timetoring 0.5pt 16/1+generally inc. 20/1 Hills/Lads
4.40 Carlisle Prince Of Dreams 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Hills &others
5.05 Fontwell I've Been Framed 0.5pt 5/1+generally inc. 6/1 Coral&others 13/2 Totesport

Prince Blackthorn went off at 7/1, was held up and never able to get into it.

Henry Hook (5/1 SP) led and looked promising, touching just above evens in running, but when he was joined he had no answer, and he finished 7th. Timetoring was a candidate for our worst showing of the year, going off at 25/1 and never looking remotely in it.

Back at Carlisle and Prince Of Dreams was held up right at the back and made smooth progress to come to seemingly throw down a challenge, but he was never able to get close enough to the leader who had flown and in the end got out battled for second, finishing third, after starting at 5/1.

I've Been Framed was another to look promising for a while, but he was outpaced when things got serious and he could only finish third.

On to today and we had three, all relatively short priced (for us):

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.40 Newbury Amigayle 1pt 9/2+ generally inc. 5/1 Hills/Totesport&others
5.10 Sedgefield City Ground 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills/Bet365/SportingBet
5.30 Newbury Magic Prospect 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Hills/StanJames/SportingBet/Skybet

Amigayle jumped right at a few fences, and tried to win it from the front, but lost the lead four out, and lost second on the run-in, finishing third in the end (SP 7/1).

City Ground was strongly backed all the way into 2/1, and came with what looked a highly promising run before the tank emptied and the winner skipped clear.

Magic Prospect was hampered by fallers two out but it wouldn't have made any difference, with Charlie Mann's 5yo too one paced to get properly competitive, finishing third, after starting at 5/1.

Summary of Results with prices (advised --- SP):

22nd March 2012

Prince Blackthorn, 7th/9, 8/1 --- 7/1

Henry Hook, 7th/16, 6/1 --- 5/1

Timetoring, 16th/16, 20/1 --- 25/1

Prince Of Dreams, 3rd/8, 5/1 --- 5/1

I've Been Framed, 3rd/6, 6/1 --- 4/1

23rd March 2012

Amigayle, 3rd/12, 5/1 --- 7/1

City Ground, 3rd/5, 5/1 --- 2/1

Magic Prospect, 3rd/11, 11/2 --- 5/1

On we go and let's see what the weekend brings. Next update will likely be on Sunday night, let's hope we're celebrating a profit packed couple of days!

We've had better days!

A large contrast from yesterday, where we were 1 for 1, today we were 0/6. Ironically 1/7 is about what we expect (around 15% s/r) so these things will happen, but still, not pretty!

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Haydock Springfield Raki 0.5pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Lads/Hills&others
3.30 Warwick Septos 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Coral/Totesport&others
4.05 Warwick Ripoff 1pt 15/2+generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/Totesport&others
4.15 Hereford Take Of Shoc's 1pt 5/1+ generally inc. 11/2 BetVictor
4.25 Haydock You Know Yourself 0.5pt 7/1+ generally inc. 8/1 Bet365/Hills&others
5.15 Hereford Bathwick Junior 1pt 10/1+generally inc. 11/1 Coral/Totesport 12/1 Lads/Hills

Springfield Raki went off at 15/2 and ran well for a long way, and was bang there as they turned for home, but faded out of things into fourth.

Septos was well backed into 3/1jf but put in a very flat performance; staying on at the end but long after the winner had got away from them.

Ripoff started at 8/1 and travelled ok for a decent portion of the race but ran out of steam and was well beaten.

Take Of Shoc's went off at 9/2 and had a lot of his opponents on the stretch as he set a strong pace. The tactics worked to a large degree, with just one opponent able to grit it out with him, with Cruise In Style, stealing a few possibly crucial yards on the inside as they turned for home. Despite rallying close home, Rebecca Curtis' 8yo went down by less than a length.

You Know Yourself started at 5/1 and was up there and mixing it with them until fading some way from home.

So it was left to Bathwick Junior to see if our day could be rescued, after going off a well supported 4/1 (although the price also brought down by by two non-runners during the day), and again we watched as a selection raced prominently before tiring near the end, although John Flint's 5yo did stay on into third.

Confirmation of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Springfield Raki, 4th/7, 8/1 --- 15/2

Septos, 3rd/6, 6/1 --- 3/1

Ripoff, 7th/9, 8/1 --- 8/1

Take Of Shoc's, 2nd/8, 5/1 --- 9/2

You Know Yourself, 6th/8, 8/1 --- 5/1

Bathwick Junior, 3rd/10, 12/1 --- 4/1

So we brush ourselves off and look forward to tomorrow!

Super Saffron

First of all, we had no selections yesterday.

We put up today's selection, Sea Saffron, earlier in the month, and he was well out of touch before staying on strongly towards the end to almost snatch third. Today we had him again:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.00 Exeter Sea Saffron 1pt 8/1 + generally inc. 9/1 Hills/Totesport 10/1 Bet365/Coral

Today's race was over a furlong and a half further, and Susan Gardner's 11yo was well supported to record his first win over hurdles. Always travelling nicely, he moved up to join the leader with three left to jump and soon had the race in safe keeping. He was heavily eased on the run-in and just for a moment it looked like Matt Griffiths had been a tad too calm, but he got there by half a length, and value for a good deal further.

Confirmation of result with prices (advised --- SP):

Sea Saffron, 1st/8, 8/1 --- 13/2

So a good winner, which leaves us 11.81pts up for the year so far. From our last 77 selections, we are +27.75pts (ROI +42.49%), which is a good upturn and hopefully the start of a long overdue sweep back towards strongly building on earlier profits.

Weekend update

Not a good weekend, with 4.5pts dropped.

We'll start yesterday where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.00 Newcastle Scotswell 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Totesport/Betfred maybe some 10/1 BetVictor
4.15 Newcastle I Witness 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Boylesports/Stan James/SportingBet
5.00 Uttoxeter Bring On The Judge 1pt 9/2+generally inc. 5/1 Lads/Bet365&others
5.20 Newcastle Glaced Over 0.5pt 10/1+generally inc. 12/1 Bet365&others 14/1 Totesport/Betfred/Stan James

Scotswell was prominent but got left behind as the action heated up but stayed on into third, after going off at 8/1.

I Witness, opened on course at 11/1 but was backed again, into an SP of 9/1, led for a long while but also couldn't quite go with them when the principles took the race by the scruff of the neck, and finished 5th.

Bring On The Judge went off at 4/1 and was going along well enough before appearing to stumble in running and wasn't right afterwards.

Glaced Over ran no sort of race after going off at 16/1.

And then today we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

1.45 Newton Abbot She's On The Case 1pt 9/1+generally inc. 10/1 Coral/Totesport/Bet365 &others 11/1 Paddy Power

Who ran poorly, pushed along all too early and getting pulled up, after starting at 9/1.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Saturday March 17th 2012

Scotswell, 3rd/10, 8/1 --- 8/1

I Witness, 5th/16, 9/1 --- 9/1

Bring On The Judge, PU/10, 9/2 -- 4/1

Glaced Over, PU/17, 12/1 --- 16/1

Sunday March 18th 2012

She's On The Case, PU/15, 10/1 --- 9/1

March's in profit, but we'll certainly be hoping we can really push on and end it strongly.

Not so Lucky William

Just the one selection to finish off the festival, in the very last race.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

5.15 Cheltenham Lucky William 0.5pt 16/1 generally

Lucky William went off a 14/1 chance and was in midfield, when he blundered and unseated his rider at the 8th fence, so we'll never know if we were going to end Cheltenham 2012 on a high! Safe to say he would have had to have performed a terrific display to finish in front of the Nicky Henderson combo who finished 1-2, well ahead of third.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Lucky William, UR/21, 16/1 --- 14/1

It was a shame to see Kauto Star pulled up today, but at least he's healthy and can now surely look forward to a long and happy retirement. In terms of our Cheltenham competition, he was a popular choice among those members who entered, as was Long Run of course. Syncronised had a few supporters, one of whom has won first prize, and the £50 Amazon voucher, with AOC coming with a late charge to nab Supreme Novice and Frannie on the line! The other two named share second place, so congratulations also to them, £25 Amazon vouchers each coming their way.

Cheltenham Festival Betting Market Analysis Day Four

Here's our analysis of today's betting markets so far. Again, not designed as tips as such but perhaps some useful pointers ahead of the final day of action! All the best for a great day.

1.30 JCB Triump Hurdle

Baby Mix is solid at the front of the market at 6/1, while most of the other principles are easy to back. The exception is Balder Success, with 8/1 the best price available about Alan King’s unbeaten 4yo. Elsewhere, with the layers pushing many horses out in price a little, the price for Darroun at 12/1, is stable.

2.05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle

The field down to 27 with Master of Arts a non-runner, and there is a lot of support for most of the fancied contenders, in particular Citizenship with Coral and Totesport among the firms to shorten from 8/1 into 6/1. There is still the odd bit of 7/1 available at the time of writing. Pricewise selection Olofi is another being supported, into a best priced 9/1, while Raya Star, Snap Tie and Magnifique Etoile are others being backed, and are best priced 10/1, 14/1 and 16/1 respectively. One of the reasons for these shortening is the opposition to Moon Dice, who is on a significant drift. Generally a 9/1 chance first thing, Paul Flynn’s 7yo is now as big as 14/1. At bigger prices, virtually all are easy to back with Sailors Warn and Desert Cry the two whose prices are holding up best.

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Boston Bob is a very solid favourite, with the Irish raider shortening with a few firms and a best priced 11/8. Elsewhere, Brindisi Brreze is being nibbled at in places and a best priced 10/1, while Sivola De Sivola is another being supported, with 20/1 available in a just a handful of places after being as big as 25/1 with Hills this morning.

3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

There can’t be many people in racing who wouldn’t love to see Kauto Star regain the crown, whether they’ve got money on him or not, but he is very easy to back so far, out to as big as 5/1 with a couple of firms. Long Run is also weak in the betting, and a general 2/1 chance now. Pricewise selection Synchronised has seen lots of support, over and above what we would even expect Tom Segal and a Non-Runner (Quel Esprit) would do to the markets, and is now a best priced 9/1 chance. Burton Port is also being nicely backed, and is a best priced 7/1. At bigger prices, Diamond Harry is the one of most interest from a market perspective, with 28/1 about Nick Williams’ 9yo the best price in most places.

4.00 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase

A fairly quiet day so far in the markets here, with Salsify (best priced 6/1) the one with the most widespread support. Elsewhere little bits of interest for Merchant Royal (14/1).

4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

Notable support for Bourne in the face of two Pricewise selections, with any 11/2 or 6/1 around the morning now long gone for Donald McCain’s 6yo (best priced 5/1). PW pair Toner D’Oudairies and Grandad’s Horse have both shortened in price with the later attracting the most eye-catching support of the two of them. They’re best priced 7/1 and 16/1 from 8/1 and 25/1 generally. At bigger prices, many are on the drift with quite a few firms, with the excpetion being Tim Vaughan’s Ski Sunday, 2^nd in the 2009 Fred Winter, and beaten six lengths in the County Hurdle last year from a higher mark and a best priced 40/1, and Bocciani, who is generally a 33/1 chance.

5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup

A pretty brutal getting-out stakes, with 21 going to post for this handicap chase over the minimum trip. PW pick Slieveardagh has been nicely backed into a best priced 11/1, but of potentially more interest from a market perspective is Lucky William, who has been well supported on his handicap debut, into a best priced 16/1 after being as big as 22/1 in places this morning. Elsewhere Kid Cassidy is pretty solid at the front of the market, while Tara Royal has been nibbled at in a place or two.

Not today, and Interview link

A disappointing day after yesterday's success, with Buena Vista not justifying notable support at Cheltenham, and our other today failing to do the business at Hexham.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.05 Chelt Buena Vista 0.5 pt 8-1+ generally, inc 9-1 PP, B365
4.15 Hex Hathamore 1pt 13-2+ generally, inc 7-1 BetV, Lads, PP, 8-1 Tote

Buena Vista, going for a Pertemps hat-trick was nicely supported into 7/1 but after being challenged for the lead for a good while, sadly folded tamely away some way from home.

At Hexham, Hathamore's run looked quite promising for a good while, leading for much of the contest, before fading towards the end to be well beaten, after going off at 9/1.

Summary of Results with prices (advised --- SP):

Buena Vista, 13th/24, 9/1 --- 7/1

Hathamore, 8th/13, 7/1 --- 9/1

So it's Gold Cup day tomorrow, and what a race it promises to be. Long Run's a fine horse but we've got to cheer on Kauto to regain his crown. What a win it would be!

Finally, a plug for an interview carried out recently about the service - http://www.fulltimebettingblog.com/2012/03/14/market-examined/. Hope you find it interesting!

Cheltenham Festival Betting Market Analysis Day Three

Some very significant pointers yesterday in the markets, and here is our analysis for Day Three.

1.30 Jewson Novices' Chase

Donald McCain's fantastic Cheltenham means Peddlers Cross is being well backed, with the early 7-2 all gone except at Bet365 (at the time of writing). 100-30 is still quite widely available but he's already been cut to 3-1 in several places. There's also some interest in Zaynar, backed from a best priced 28-1 into as low as 16s (Hills) but still 20s in several places.

2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

The Pricewise pair of Sargent Guib's (9-1) and Pineau De Re (now best priced 16-1) are both well supported, with the latter in from an early 22-1 with Hills but possibly of more interested is the support for David Pipe's Beaua Vista , who is looking to follow up after winning the race for the last two years. 12-1 has been the biggest price about him but at the time of writing, 9-1 is the best available. Considering the horse was also second in this race three years ago, he is of obvious interest with 10lb claimer Tom Bellamy aboard. Interestingly, JP McManus only bought Catch Me in the last month or so but he has not yet steamed in and the horse has drifted slightly to a general 12-1 so we wait to see if there is a late plunge.

2.40 Ryan Air Chase
Riverside Theatre has been nibbled at but 5-1 has held up in a couple of places. Captain Chris is the only other one attracting notable support, into as low as 9-1 with those firms who went 12s early on.

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
A fairly lacklustre market early on, with Big Buck's drifting slightly as the big backers become wary of a third champion being turned over in as many days. 8-11 is the best available, which was unheard of a few days ago. Pricewise's choice of Thousand Stars is a best priced 9-1 at the moment, with Coral taking the early hits from their 12-1 and they have run for cover with the industry lowest of 15-2. Voler La Vadette has also shortened in places as punters seek out the each way value.

4.00 Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase)

A lively market for this very competitive handicap, with Crack Away Jack attracting a good degree of interest, in a point to a best priced 6-1. Hector's Choice (Pricewise) also being backed as per usual, with The Cockney Mackem another one showing up in the charts, into 16-1 from 20s and some support for Glam Gerry and Gilbarry, of Jonjo O'Neill's, at bigger prices.

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

Pricewise has put up Sunnyhillboy and he is now 7-1 market leader but lower down the list Summery Justice is being well supported to give Venetia Williams her first winner at this year's festival. She has been in good form of late and the move for her's developed quite late in the morning and across the card so worth keeping an eye on.

Gamble Landed

A monster gamble landed today with Son Of Flicka doing the business in grand style in the Coral Cup, our only selection today.

We had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

4.00 Cheltenham Son Of Flicka 0.25pt EW (total stake 0.5pt) 20/1+generally inc. 22/1 Hills 25/1 Bet365 (pays five places)

Going off a 16/1 chance, Donald McCain's 8yo was always in touch and when asked to go and win his race approaching the last had plenty left in the tank to power up the hill and win by more than three lengths, a fabulous sight. He was as big as 66/1 in a place or two this morning and there's no question that serious amounts of money was down to move the price so much in such a competitive market. From our point of view it was frustrating that we didn't stake more aggressively, but we felt in a 28 runner race it was prudent, on this rare occasion, to go each-way. Hindsight is a wonderful and thing of course, and we mustn't grumble too much, still a great result, and the 25/1 with Bet365 also held for ten minutes too (just) so we can settle at that price, for a decent 7.81pts of profit. Well done to all connections and to Jason Maguire for a great ride.

Our condolences too of course to those involved with Featherbed Lane, who won for us last November, and Abergavenny. A result tinged with sadness.

Summary of results with prices (advised ---SP):

Son Of Flicka, 1st/28, 25/1 --- 16/1

A good couple of days and we'll be doing our best to keep it going tomorrow.

Cheltenham Day Two Market Analysis

What follows is market analysis released to members earlier, not designed as tips, but a short, and hopefully interesting, commentary of some of the main moves of Cheltenham on Day two so far.

1.30 Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders)

There has been very notable support about for Teaforthree, with Rebecca Curtis’ 8yo backed from a best price 7/1 this morning into around 11/2, 6/1 in places. It is all the more interesting given there is a Pricewise selection in the race, Soll, who has naturally also been clipped in with a few firms, although not spectacularly. He is now a best priced 7/1. Elsewhere there is a little bit of support around for Blenheim Brook, a best priced 20/1 chance.

2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

Batonnier being a non-runner just after 9am confuses the picture here a little (ironically a PW ante-post selection), but still there are a few attracting notable support. Monksland has seen a lot of interest and is now best priced 9/2, while Cotton Mill is another being backed to keep up a winning run, and is now a best priced 9/1 after 14/1 was available for times this morning. Sous Les Cieux has also seen a fair bit of support, while at bigger prices Secret Edge has been backed into a best-priced 33/1. Favourite Simonsig was fairly stable in the markets earlier on but lengthening with a few firms now and is a best priced 3/1 at the time of writing.

2.40 RSA Chase

All about Grands Crus, and he is very solid at the front of the market with any 6/4 that was about this morning now gone, with the 7yo 11/8 for David Pipe to justify the decision to skip the Gold Cup (although there will be many wondering what might have been of course if he hacks up). Elsewhere barely any support for anything else at present, with First Lieutenantthe runner whose price is holding up best in the face of Grands Crus support.

3.20 Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase

Sizing Europe is solid, and a best priced 10/11 at the moment. He’s been shortened with firms including Hills, Coral and Ladbrokes and any even money around that was available shortly here and there this morning has vanished. Realt Dubh for Noel Meade is being quite nicely nibbled at elsewhere, and is now a best-priced 20/1 from 25/1 this morning in places.

4.00 Coral Cup
Unsurprisingly Pricewise picks Get Me Out Of Here and Silverhand are among the horses who have shortened this morning, and are now a best priced 8/1 and 18/1 respectively (from 10/1 and 25/1). More interestingly perhaps is the level of support around for Son of Flicka.Beaten half a length in the Martin Pipe race last year off a higher mark, he was as big as 40/1 first thing this morning, but now is around half that price if not shorter. Elsewhere, being gently nibbled at, are Act of Kalanisi, Tenor Nivernais and First Fandango, and are best priced 18/1, 33/1 and 33/1 respectively.

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Gorgeous Sixty is about the most strongly supported Pricewise horse from a market perspective so far today, and is now an 8/1 general chance, after being as big as 14/1 yesterday, and there is little movement elsewhere to take much interest in, apart fromKazlian who has shortened with half a dozen firms including Ladbrokes and Bet365, and is a best priced 8/1, and a little bit of support around for Jackies Solitaire, now a best priced 22/1 chance after some 25/1 was around earlier.

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper

A fascinating market here with a few of interest from a betting perspective. New Years Eveis solid at the head of affairs and a best priced 11/2. Elsewhere the main contenders being backed are Sir Johnson, with 11/1 generally about the best price available at the moment, and Horatio Hornblower who is a best priced 14/1 chance. The New One (12/1)is solid and has been trimmed in a couple of places while Village Vic has also seen some interest and is a best priced 14/1 shot.

Not just Cheltenham today..

So, day one of Cheltenham in the books. What a story Hunt Ball is, absolutely fabulous. Some great action throughout and plenty more to look forward to tomorrow. Most of our attention from an investing perspective was arrowed towards Sedgefield today, and we came out nicely up because of that.

Let's start our latest round up from yesterday, where we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.10 Stratford Early Applause 0.5pt 7/1+generally inc. 8/1 Boylesports/Betfred
5.00 Plumpton Ballyvoneen 1pt 8/1+generally inc. 9/1 Lads&others 10/1 Bet365/Totesport&others

Early Applause went off at 13/2, and was quite warmly supported. Held up at the back, he pulled too hard for his own good, but was making good progress until a bad mistake three out which really knocked his momentum. He tried to come again, and did stay on to not actually be beaten that far in the end and may just be one to keep an eye out for.

Ballyvoneen went off a well backed 5/1 and traded quite low in running for much of the contest, going odds on at stages, but was infuriatingly a bit outpaced as they turned for home, only for him to stay on again at the end going down in second by a couple of lengths. Two other principles in the betting market had earlier fallen and it looked a good opportunity, but wasn't quite to be.

On to today, and we had:

TIME COURSE SELECTION 0.5pt/1pt/2pt win Bookmaker(s) / Price(s)

2.55 Sedgefield Dr Flynn 1pt 5/1+generally inc. 11/2 Bet365/Totesport/BetVictor&others 6/1 SportingBet
4.00 Cheltenham Dancing Tornado 0.5pt 14/1+generally inc. 16/1 Bet365/Boylesports
4.15 Sedgefield Teerie Express 1pt 11/2+generally inc. 6/1 Lads 13/2 Bluesq 7/1 SportingBet

Dr Flynn was nicely supported down to 10/3 at the off, and was given a superbly positive ride, to lead from pillar to post. Great stuff.

At Cheltenham, Dancing Tornado was held up out the back in a very patient ride in the cross country, but unseated his rider some way from home. We were sad to hear of the deaths of Scotsirish and Garde Champetre in the race, and our condolences are with connections.

Back at Sedgefield, and Teerie Express ran in snatches a little, but was still there two out with a chance, before fading late on.

Summary of results with prices (advised --- SP):

Monday March 12th 2012:

Early Applause, 6th/10, 7/1 --- 6/1
Ballyvoneen, 2nd/8, 8/1 --- 5/1

Tuesday March 13th 2012:

Dr Flynn, 1st/7, 11/2 --- 100/30

Dancing Tornado, UR/16, 16/1 --- 11/1

Teerie Expres, 5th/8, 6/1 --- 5/1

So it's Champion Chase day tomorrow and plenty to look forward to. Quite an interesting card at Huntingdon too, and we'll be looking closely to see if the layers have taken their eye off the ball anywhere and being taken advantage of!