Relatively quiet period at the moment, with three single stakers today. Another damn bookie restricting stakes now, with Paddy Power refusing to accept more than £33.25 on Half A Crown, pathetic.
Anyway good luck to:
Half A Crown Beverley 15:15 £33.25 at 13/2 paddy power £30.03 at 6/1 with bet365
Style Icon Yarmouth 19:20 12/1 will hill
Lord Theo Yarmouth 19:50 5/1 bluesq
A quiet day and no returns, with Style Icon annoyingly a non runner. Half A Crown drifted before the off which isn't good and then didn't do much before Lord Theo shaped well for a long time but found little tonight after continuing to be well supported. Another runner in the race that was well backed ended up being narrowly beaten into second.
Here's confirmation:
Half A Crown, 6th, 8/1
Style Icon NON RUNNER
Lord Theo, 6th, 7/2
Slightly surprised by the Lord Theo selection, I appreciate that you have your methodology, but it looks like Dragon Slayer is the horse getting smashed off the boards in that race.
ReplyDeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteI have been following your blog for a while now and i must say its a good read and good work on the selections.
I run a review blog that obviously does reviews ;-)
I will be highlighting your blog in the next week or so.
I have noticed a few things which i think have been mentioned before, firstly the Hugh Taylor from atr factor, you will probs pick up a few of these in your selection criteria due to the volume of punters using the atr website and more so when the price is high and only available in a few places. I think this is also why you will be restricted to low stakes on these bets.
Also beating the SP on horses that have been backed in the morning markets is very impressive, without going into %'s most horses backed in a morning tend to hold or drift on course due to the on-course bookies not having a liability on the horse/race.
Also i have been using a ratings service for about 18months now and 76% of your winners are in there top 3 and 84% are above there avg for the race. this obviously is no concern to you but it has increased the profits by 23% if just sticking to those that come in the top 3, and 14% if sticking to those rated above the avg. The amount of losers it has cut out is why these % are so high.
I have never been a fan of selection process based on price movements but i must say you have it worked out very well and i will be doing a glowing review on your blog.
Keep up the good work.
Its a disgrace that your UK bookies restrict you like that. Paddy Power have just recently taken up a 51% share of a corporate bookie here in Oz so lets hope they don't try that sort of crap down here.
ReplyDeleteHi all
ReplyDeleteSmithster thanks for your kind words, and also very interesting findings in terms of profit lines. Yes like you say I'm happy to have the market speak for itself without confusing it with ratings, but certainly what you say is real food for thought. Thanks for the pending good review, will be keen to have a link to the blog if that's ok.
Mercs2 - yep couldn't agree more, it's not as if I've been hammering Ppower much recently, but it can't be any coincidence that yesterday's winner came through them. When I placed the bet today there was a really long pause before it came back with what I was allowed to stake, certainly never happened before and no doubt if I kept losing money they would be more than happy to accept a substantial amount more. Poor show and yes I hope it doesn't start infecting you boys down under.
Anon - yes Dragon Slayer very nicely backed as well but I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens! :-)