Friday, 26 June 2009

Five today - one double stake

Quite a busy day ahead and a massive price in the first.

Don't like this rain that's falling/coming, hope that doesn't affect things badly.

Good luck to:

Oskari Doncaster 15:25 22/1 totesport

Earlsmedic Folkestone 16:15 7/1 bet365

Tutor Market Rasen 16:25 9/2 vcbet

Sand Repeal Folkestone 16:45 7/2 bet365

Minority Report Newcastle 20:25 5/1 ladbrokes double stake

Well back home after crashing out from a poker tournament after making a really poor all-in call with AQ suited (came up vs AK, no help and out). Could have folded and still been well in there but just put the guy on a wrong hand, and was also in a mood to gamble for some reason. Very annoying but still an enjoyable evening out.

As for today's results, not the best, although Sand Repeal won well. Minority Report after reasonably backed in the morning drifted massively early evening and then on course, and then came a tailed off last, I assume somebody knew something with that one and a few quid was made hitting the lay button, it'll certainly be interesting to see whether he's produced to win sometime soon.

Here's confirmation:

Oskari, 11th, 16/1sp

Earlsmedic, 9th, 6/1

Tutor, 12th, 7/2

Sand Repeal, 1st, 5/2

Minority Report, 8th, 11/1

By the way, RIP Michael Jackson, a sad day.


  1. The week long rain torrent of june 08 was a memorable time for me.
    The system i was using at the time had took me from a bank of about £500 to £2500 in the previous two months.
    If i remember right, i pulled out after five or six days without a winner, still with a healthy £1500.
    My mate wasnt so lucky, i remember the look of horror, the utter, utter panic in his tone, as a combination of 20 odd straight losers and a way way too harsh staking plan ripped his glorious work to pieces, leaving him looking like he,d gone three rounds with Tyson.
    I am always reminded of the comedy comedy moments of the aforementioned episode when you update your blog every day and i look out the window and its raining. :o(
    p.s my starting bank with this was £300 and £2 bets, made about £80 (beginning of june) started on 13th with £400 and £4 bets (100 point bank), which has been hovering between £350 - £430 since then, (stands at £390 right now)
    Good luck this weekend Cd!

  2. Nice one Dazza a good reminder for us all about the importance of deep stacked staking plans! And yes roll on a nice long hot summer with none of this stupid rain!

    Pleased to see you're making a few quid, we've been treading water for a couple of weeks now but hopefully the next big push upwards won't be too far away

  3. Just out of interest, does your system just run through the summer flat or does it carry on through the jumps season??
    regards daz.

  4. 12 months a year mate, it would be 365 days if it wasn't for those pesky Good Friday, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day days ;)

  5. Just to add, and you may have noticed already, I don't do the all weather, the moves are just too unpredictable according to my research (maybe the horses can't be relied upon??)

  6. To be honest, if im looking at the all weather, i prefer to stick with trainer/track/jockey statistics, research can be immense and time consuming, (hmm... something to think about though, now you,ve mentioned all weather... I feel a personal challenge coming on)
    Might have a butchers at this...

  7. This system of backing is totally flawed - I reckon it will take you about another 12 months to lose your bank. Following money ONLY works if you know WHERE the money is coming from. I work in the industry, and a fiver from certain "faces" can be more significant than £100,000 from others, and unless you know who is placing the money, it can only end up going one way in the long term.

    It's just a question of how long your luck can last.

  8. First, apols to you anon as I didn't see your message to post it on the blog until this evening (Saturday) for some reason.

    But I find what you say fascinating, and would love to know what research you have in place to back your claims up?

    I've been following market variants and changes since May 2003 and what you're saying is very contrary to what I've found over the years. My main regret is having a too aggressive staking plan with my last attempt at this (£100 turned into a high of £3282.81, before dropping down to £865.15, which I took out to help pay for our wedding in 2007).

    Also I was too selective for a long time with what horses I backed, which meant usually only backing one or two a week. This meant everything took a long time to get going. After taking time off after my wedding and paper trading for a while, I am following market moves again but more of them, loosening up my criteria. This seems to be proving useful as, while my strike rate has dropped a little from my last campaign, the number of bets I am doing is pushing through greater profits (27.45% ROI since last November).

    So your assertion that this is all luck is one I am struggling to accept. Let's chat again in a year and see who's right.

  9. Hello CD - today was an interesting case in point where you backed a seemingly supported horse from the Stuart Williams yard. Check your statistics for their "well backed" horses, and you may discover just how many of those gambles are COMPLETELY FALSE. Unless you are involved, and know WHERE the money is actually coming from, my experience is that it is not possible to consistently make money in the long-term. I do however, wish you well as you are on a great run at the moment.

  10. Thanks for stopping by again, and for the good wishes.

    Over the course of around 800/900 bets in a year there'll of course be many which sees a horse drift on track and run badly, hopefully not too many, but quite a few.

    This whole strategy is about the long term, if I can consistently back horses at bigger than they go off at SP (or in particular betfair SP) then money should be made - the value should be locked in - and this has proved to be the case over the last six years.

    And if you don't think the SP market is an accurate assessment of a horses chances then we we really are going to have to agree to disagree. :)