Saturday, 17 April 2010

Yet another big day ahead.

Here are the runners on another busy day:

Ayr 1.45 Ascendent 9-2 VC Bet

Newb 2.00 Manifest 11-2 Lads

Thir 2.25 Wvooka 9-2 B365

Ayr 2.45 Gloucester 6-1 B365

Bang 3.45 Nom de Gurre 13-2 Lads DOUBLE STAKER

Don 5.10 Malpas Missile 9-2 B365 DOUBLE STAKER

Don 7.25 Lady Artemisa 4-1 Lads

All these prices available at time of posting.


Not sure I've ever known a day like it. Five second place finishes out of seven. Talk about hammering against the door of a great day. As it was, it ended up being nine points dropped and plenty to stew on tonight. In fairness most of them were beaten at least a length with no photo finish jobs around, but still pretty sickening not to have got at least one or two winners. A note about Malpas Missile, very strange, nicely backed this morning but then the most extraordinary drift on betfair meant the books priced her up at 14/1 on course. The money still didn't really come again but then she ran a very fair race to find only one too good on her racecourse debut. When the layers got stuck in I assumed she's go on to run a stinker, but not to be. Odd happenings there, but would have been a hell of a result with BOG in play! Will hope for better tomorrow.

Confirmation of results with sps:

Ascendent, 4th, 4/1

Manifest, 2nd, 9/2

Wvooka, 8th, 11/2

Gloucester, 2nd, 6/1

Nom de Gurre, 2nd, 17/2

Malpas Missile, 2nd, 12/1

Lady Artemisa, 2nd, 7/2


  1. Beloved CD
    Nom De Guerre (IRE) 3.45 Bang
    Winning hurdler who has been running over fences in recent starts. Not impossibly treated back in this sphere but broke a blood vessel when disappointing last time (December).

    reports time form
    normally blood vessel broken horse s are not to be touched for punting any way
    good luck
    to all

  2. Thanks for your comment Easwaran, well he ran a decent enough race to come second didn't he, but wish he could have won the thing!

  3. Hi CD

    Since I have been following your selections I have noted, as you alluded to today that on very rare occasions (today being the third) that the odds on a selection take a massive drift after shortening in the morning.

    I have racked my brains to try to work out why but to no avail. I would be interested to hear if you have any theories.

    With regards to the results, I think that if you are knocking on the door with so many seconds, I believe it is only a matter of time before we are cashing in again.

    Keep up the good work

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  5. No CD i wasnt questioning you putting the bet on
    the point i was eluding too was i think the bookmakers may be monitoring your blog,didnt enter my head about you getting the price and in all fairness why would it you have been open throughout which says a lot for your credibility in these days.
    Back to my 1st posted question do you have any totals of profit to s/p,after all this is the real way to measure any service correctly,I wish you continued success and I also think if you adopted the betfair place market into your betting you could be ensuring further profit and in many cases covering losses,eg yesterday you would have been drawing on all of those 2nds,just a thought,

  6. Hi Mark,

    Hmm no, I don't really know. As you say, it is a very rare event but does happen once in a while. Funnily enough it doesn't historically mean curtains for the selection, they'll often run their race regardless. I can only assume they're put up as a lay by a certain website or such like in the afternoon (I don't like to think of a stable insider of course!).

    Thankfully with the vast majority of bookies doing best odds guaranteed it would have meant for a cracking result, although of course it goes against the concept of my thinking.

    All the best


    Easwaran, thanks again for your kind comments. I've analysed each way results a fair bit in the past, and over the long term they've always fallen a little short in terms of returns than going for broke with the win, but maybe I should keep open minded about it!

    Best wishes to you.


    Hi Alan,

    Thanks for clearing that up, I didn't think that's what you were implying but I wanted to clear it up nonetheless.

    Interesting point you make about bookies monitoring the blog. I can look back at the IP addresses of my last 500 visitors, and a bookies firm has been coming up just lately (Sporting Bet IP address). Ironic really as my account with them has long been redundant due to the fact they limited my stakes to about £1.50 wins ages ago (after initially standing very big bets, by the way). Anyway when the email system's up and running, and then even more so in the planned subscription era, that'll hopefully solve that problem (if indeed it is a problem!?

    As for results to sp - I haven't worked it all out just recently although have looked at in the past, I will do again soon for interest sake. SP only betting has been profitable when I've looked at it before, although clearly it's no way near as profitable as the early prices. It actually wouldn't surprise me if SP betting returns no profit at all, because my whole ethos is about backing at bigger prices than SP (hence grinding out the edge). If I can find horses with a price which will continue to contract then achieving profits are as close to inevitable as you can get (bad runs not withstanding of course), because of the maturity and accuracy of the SP market in relation to a horse's chances. Not of course necessarily in a single day, not a week or even in some cases in a month, but over hundreds or certainly thousands of bets the profits will come. That's the idea anyway!

    And yes as mentioned above, I think I should look again at the place market, even if it's just a case of covering stakes. I'll see.

    Thanks for your interest, and good luck to you.